Estimating the Prevalence of Long-Term Disability for an Aging Society

This study was designed to provide comprehensive information about future long-term care needs in the U.S. Using data from the U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing, National Long-Term Care Survey and National Nursing Home Survey, the study developed detailed projections of the need for long-term care among the elderly in the years 2000, 2020 and 2040. Estimates of long-term care needs have traditionally relied on static models which assume that mortality and morbidity rates will remain constant over the projection period. This study employs a dynamic projection model. Three different sets of projections were estimated based on varying assumptions about changes in life expectancy and rates of impairment. [22 PDF pages] [Technical Documentation 54 PDF pages]