How Many Individuals Might Have Marketplace Coverage After the 2015 Open Enrollment Period?


The Affordable Care Act is achieving its central aim: millions of Americans who were uninsured before now have access to affordable, high-quality health care. By the end of the first open enrollment period, over 8 million people selected policies and, of those, as of September 2014, 7.1 million people enrolled and were paying for insurance coverage (“effectuated” enrollees) through the Marketplace. As the second annual Open Enrollment Period (from November 15, 2014 through February 15, 2015) approaches, many analysts are projecting the number of people expected to enroll. Projections vary depending on the underlying assumptions and the analytical methods used. Analysts in the Department of Health and Human Services project a range for 2015 of 9.0 – 9.9 million total enrollees, which is consistent with the growth rate of 25 – 30% seen in other new insurance products.


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