Indicators of Welfare Dependence: Annual Report to Congress, 1998

Annual Report to Congress

October 1998

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

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Executive Summary

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Department of Health and Human Services to prepare annual reports to Congress on indicators and predictors of welfare dependence.  This Annual Report on Welfare Indicators, October 1998 is the second of these annual reports.

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in degree and in duration.  Families may be more or less dependent if larger or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare programs.  The amount of time over which a family depends on welfare might also be considered in assessing their degree of dependency.  Although recognizing the difficulties inherent in defining and measuring dependence, the bipartisan Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators proposed the following definition:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities.  Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

The proposed definition, unfortunately, cannot be measured precisely at this time with currently available data.  Most importantly, current data do not distinguish between cash benefits where work is required and cash benefits that are paid without work.  Thus it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence.  Instead this report includes a number of indicators addressing welfare recipiency, dependence, and labor force attachment.  Selected findings discussed in more detail include the following:

• In 1994, the most recent year for which SIPP data are available, 5.6 percent of the total population were dependent in the sense of receiving more than half of total income from AFDC, Food Stamps, and SSI (see Indicator 1).  This is approximately the same rate as the previous two years.  This dependency rate would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare assistance associated with working.
• Long-term dependency is relatively rare.  Only 4 percent of those who were recipients in 1982, or less than 1 percent of the total population, received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and Food Stamps in 9 or 10 years over the next decade.  Half of the 1982 recipients never received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and Food Stamps over the 1982-1991 time period (see Indicator 1, Figure IND 1b).
• In 1994, 46 percent of AFDC recipients, 38 percent of SSI recipients and 57 percent of Food Stamp recipients were in families with at least one person in the labor force (see Indicator 4).
• Individuals who receive AFDC or Food Stamps as children are more likely to receive benefits as adults (see Indicator 12).

Since the causes of welfare receipt and dependence are not clearly known, the report also includes a larger set of risk factors associated with welfare receipt.  Indicators of deprivation are included as a supplement to the dependence indicators, ensuring that dependence measures are not assessed in isolation.  The risk factors are loosely organized into three categories:  economic security measures, measures related to employment and barriers to employment, and measures of teen behavior, including nonmarital childbearing.  Additional data on welfare programs, poverty, and non-marital births are included in three appendices.

Chapter I. Introduction

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 (Pub. L. 103-432) directed the Secretary of Health and Human Services to develop indicators of the extent to which American families depend upon income from welfare programs and to publish annual reports on welfare dependency. These reports are to address questions concerning the extent to which American families depend on income from welfare programs such as Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), the Supplemental Security Income Program (SSI) and the Food Stamp Program (FSP). (Data shown for 1997 and later years will include the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program in place of AFDC.) Specific issues that HHS is directed to address are the rate of welfare dependency, the degree and duration of welfare recipiency and dependence, and predictors of welfare dependence.

An Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators was established under the Act to assist the Secretary in defining welfare dependence and in choosing appropriate data for inclusion in the first annual report. The Board consisted of a bipartisan group of experts appointed by the Senate, the House of Representatives and the President. Before its termination in October 1997, the Board developed a statistical definition of welfare dependence and oversaw the production of the first of these Annual Reports. This second annual report gives updated data on the measures of welfare recipiency, dependency, and predictors of welfare dependence developed for last year's report.

Organization of Report

This introductory chapter provides an overview of the specific summary measures of welfare dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. It also discusses summary measures of poverty, following the Board’s recommendation that dependence measures not be assessed in isolation from measures of deprivation. Analysis of both measures is important because changes in dependence measures could result either from increases in work activity and other factors that would raise family incomes, or from sanctions in welfare programs that would reduce welfare program participation but might not improve the material circumstances of these families. The introduction concludes with a brief discussion of data sources used for the report.

Chapter II of the report, Indicators of Dependence, presents a broader group of indicators of welfare recipiency and dependence. These indicators include measures of the extent of recipiency for each of the three programs considered separately, as well as information on income from all three programs in combination. Interactions of AFDC, SSI and FSP benefits with periods of employment and with benefits from other programs are also shown. The second chapter also includes data on movements onto and off of welfare programs, and on the extent to which welfare recipiency in adolescence is correlated with later adult recipiency.

Chapter III, Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt, focuses on predictors of welfare dependence -- risk factors believed to be associated with welfare receipt in some way. These predictors are shown in three different groups

1. Economic security – including measures of poverty, receipt of child support, health care coverage, and so forth -- is important in predicting dependence in the sense that families with fewer economic resources are more likely to rely on welfare programs for their support.
2. Measures of work status of adult family members also are important, because families must generally receive an adequate income from employment in order to avoid dependence without severe deprivation.
3. Finally, teen behaviors are very important since a high proportion of long-term welfare recipients became parents as teens, often outside of marriage. Starting a family in these circumstances may lead to dependence because teens generally lack adequate skills, preparation and resources to support a child.

Additional data are presented in three appendices. Appendix A gives basic data on each of the three main welfare programs and their recipients over the past several years. These three programs are the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, the Food Stamp Program, and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) (Pub. L. 104-193), enacted in 1996, ended the AFDC program and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Program, which is run directly by the states. This year=s annual report includes data on the first year of the new program whenever those data have been available. The available data on TANF in 1997 are shown in Appendix A.

Appendix B provides additional detail on potential risk factors that could not be included in Chapter III because of space considerations. These risk factors are primarily measures of poverty and economic security. Finally, additional data on nonmarital childbearing are included in Appendix C.

Measuring Welfare Dependence

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in degree and in duration. Families may be more or less dependent if larger or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare programs. The amount of time over which a family depends on welfare might also be considered in assessing their degree of dependency. Nevertheless, a summary measure of dependence to be used as an indicator for policy purposes must have some fixed parameters that allow one to determine which families should be counted as dependent, just as the poverty line defines who is poor under the official standard. The definition of dependence developed by the Advisory Board for this purpose is as follows:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

This measure is not without its limitations. The Advisory Board recognized that no single measure could fully capture all aspects of dependence and that the proposed measure should be examined in concert with other key indicators of dependence and deprivation. In addition, while the proposed definition would count unsubsidized and subsidized employment and work required to obtain benefits as work activities, currently available data do not permit distinguishing between welfare income associated with work activities and non-work-related welfare benefits. As a result, the data shown in this report overstate the incidence of dependence (as defined above) because welfare income associated with work required to obtain benefits is classified as welfare and not as income from work. This proposed definition capture also represents an essentially arbitrary choice of a percentage (50 percent) of income from welfare beyond which families will be considered dependent. However, it is relatively easy to measure and to track over time, and is likely to be associated with any very large changes in total dependence, however defined. For example, as the recent changes in welfare law move more recipients into employment or workrelated activities, dependence under this definition is expected to decline.

In 1994, the most recent year for which complete population data are available on monthly income and benefit recipiency, 18.0 percent of the population received means-tested assistance, and close to one-third of this group, or 5.6 percent of the total population, would be considered dependent under the above definition, as shown in Table SUM1. Recipiency and dependency rates are higher in both 1993 and 1994 than they were in 1987 and 1990. Recipiency rates, for example, rose from rates of about 14 to 15 percent in 1987 and 1990, to rates of 17 to 18 percent in 1993 and 1994. This rise in consistent with administrative data showing higher than average AFDC and Food Stamp caseloads in 1993 and 1994. What is not apparent from administrative records, but is shown in these national survey data, is that dependency rates also were higher in 1993 and 1994, in the range of 5 to 6 percent, as opposed to the rates of between 4 and 5 percent, seen in 1987 and 1990.

Table SUM 1. Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs

In Table SUM 2, the dependence indicator is calculated in more detail for specific combinations of programs. The first column shows dependency when counting income from all three programs as welfare (as was done in Table SUM 1), while the second and third columns show dependency when counting AFDC and Food Stamp benefits only, or counting SSI only. In general, about three-fourths of families who are dependent based on income from all three programs also are dependent under a definition that considers AFDC and Food Stamps alone. As might be expected, the one exception involves adults aged 65 and over. Whereas two percent of elderly recipients are dependent under the definition that includes AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI, less than one-half percent are dependent when SSI is excluded. Table SUM 2 also shows that non-whites and the very young are more likely to be dependent than other racial and age categories, and they are primarily dependent on AFDC and Food Stamps. Even in these populations, however, the vast majority of families do not meet the criteria for dependence.

Table SUM 2. Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Various Means-Tested Assistance Programs, 1994

	AFDC, SSI and Food Stamps	AFDC and Food Stamps	SSI only
All Persons	5.6	4.1	0.9
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	2.6	1.8	0.5
Non-Hispanic Black	16.8	11.9	2.9
Hispanic	12.9	10.3	0.9
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	12.5	10.6	0.5
Children Age 6 - 10	12.0	9.3	0.9
Children Age 11 - 15	9.3	6.6	0.7
Women Age 16 - 64	5.5	3.8	1.1
Men Age 16 - 64	2.5	1.2	0.8
Adults Age 65 and over	2.2	0.3	1.4

A third measure of dependence, shown in Table SUM 3, indicates the proportion of the welfare population that meets the dependence definition over an extended period of time, as well as the proportion receiving any welfare benefits over time. During each of the two time periods presented, about half of all recipients did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and Food Stamp benefits in any of the ten years examined. About one-quarter (23 percent in the 1982-1991 time period) were dependent for one to two years, with lower proportions dependent for longer periods of time. Only 4 percent of those who were received welfare in 1982, for example, were dependent for 9 to 10 years. This is a smaller percentage than the proportion of recipients that received welfare of any amount for 9 to 10 years (11 percent). There is a small tendency for the proportion of spells of welfare dependence that are longer to grow over this period, but the change is not large enough to be statistically significant. Child recipients have longer spells of welfare receipt and welfare dependence than do recipients in general, as shown in the bottom half of the table.

Table SUM 3. AFDC Receipt and Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

	All Recipients 1972 – 1981		All Recipients 1982 – 1991
Years	Any AFDCReceipt	AFDC & Food Stamps >50% of Income	Any AFDC Receipt	AFDC & Food Stamps >50% of Income
0 Years	--	55	--	50
1 - 2 Years	49	22	47	23
3 - 5 Years	28	14	28	15
6 - 8 Years	13	5	15	9
9 - 10 Years	11	4	11	4
	100%	100%	100%	100%

	Children 0 - 5 in 1972: 1972 - 1981		Children 0 - 5 in 1982: 1982 - 1991
Years	Any AFDC Receipt	AFDC & Food Stamps >50% of Income	Any AFDC Receipt	AFDC & Food Stamps >50% of Income
Note: Recipients include all individuals receiving at least $1 in AFDC or Food Stamp benefits in the first year of the ten-year time period (1972 or 1982). “AFDC Receipt” is defined as whether the person received AFDC at any time during the year. “AFDC & Food Stamps, >50% of Income” is defined as whether the person’s AFDC and Food Stamps benefit was more than 50% of their yearly income. “0 Years” means that while the person received means-tested assistance, their benefits were 50% of their income for zero years during the time period. For example, a person listed as receiving AFDC for 6 - 8 years (“Any AFDC Receipt”) may never have received benefits greater than 50% of their income (0 years, AFDC and Food Stamps >50% of Income). Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1972 - 1991.
0 Years	--	39	--	34
1 - 2 Years	37	25	34	28
3 - 5 Years	29	21	29	16
6 - 8 Years	15	6	17	13
9 - 10 Years	19	9	20	8
	100%	100%	100%	100%

Figure SUM 4. Trends in Poverty with and without Means-Tested Benefits: All Persons, 1979-1996

Percent of Total Population in Poverty

 

Source: Table SUM 4.

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Measuring Deprivation

Changes in dependence may or may not be associated with changes in the level of deprivation, depending on the alternative sources of support found by families who might otherwise be dependent on welfare. To assess the social impacts of any change in dependence, changes in the level of poverty or deprivation also must be considered. One way of measuring deprivation is to look at changes in the level of need over time. Elsewhere in this document, for example, measures of food insecurity and of the poverty gap – the amount of income that would be needed to bring all of those below poverty to the poverty line – are presented. (See Table ECON 9 in Chapter III for measures of food insecurity and Tables B-1 and B-2 in Appendix B for poverty gap measures.)

The deprivation measure presented in this chapter, however, focuses directly on changes in the anti-poverty effectiveness of welfare and related programs. Table SUM 4 (and its associated figure) shows how much welfare programs have reduced poverty rates for all persons since 1979.

Similar data are shown for persons in families with related children under age 18 in Figure SUM 5 and Table SUM 5.

Table SUM 4. Percentage of Persons in Poverty before and after the Inclusion of Means-Tested Benefits: All Persons, Selected Years 1979 – 1996

	1979	1981	1983	1986	1989	1991	1993	1995	1996
Note: The first measure of poverty, labeled cash income plus all social insurance, includes social security but not means-tested cash transfers. Adding means-tested cash transfers yields the official census definition of poverty, the second line in the table. Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is added. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit, which is always positive whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. The fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid is not included. Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.
Cash Income plus All Social Insurance	12.8	14.9	16.0	14.5	13.7	15.2	16.3	14.9	14.8
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	11.6	13.9	15.2	13.6	12.8	14.2	15.1	13.8	13.7
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	9.7	12.2	13.7	12.2	11.2	12.4	13.4	12.0	12.1
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	10.0	13.2	14.7	13.1	11.7	12.6	13.3	11.5	11.5
Reduction in Poverty Rate	2.8	1.7	1.3	1.4	2.0	2.6	3.0	3.4	3.3

As can be seen by the figures and tables, many more families would be poor if they did not receive welfare benefits. Counting only cash income and social insurance (excluding welfare), the poverty rate for all individuals would be 14.8 percent in 1996, as shown in the top line in Figure SUM 4 and Table SUM 4. The official poverty rate, which adds means-tested cash assistance, was about one percentage point lower, as shown in the second line in the table and figure. The rate is further reduced when counting food and housing benefits (see third line in figure and table) and when counting taxes, including refunds through the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) (see fourth line). This final poverty rate – taking into account all sources of support – is a more complete measure of deprivation than is the official poverty rate or other measures that exclude some types of support. Breaking it down in this fashion allows the relative contribution of different sources – including cash welfare and relatively fungible in-kind welfare benefits – to the alleviation of poverty to be observed.

Poverty rates of all types began to increase in 1990 as the economy went into a recession, reaching a peak in 1993. As economic conditions have started to improve rates have come down, both before and after means-tested assistance. The gap between poverty rates before and after public assistance has increased slightly over time, particularly in the last few years as the size of the EITC has grown. The EITC is a work-related benefit, however, and is not included as assistance in estimating dependence. The contribution of all sources of means-tested support (including cash assistance, food and housing benefits, and the EITC and taxes) to the reduction in poverty has remained roughly constant, except that during the recession of the early 1980s these programs did somewhat less to reduce total poverty. Current poverty-reduction rates for assistance programs are about the same as in 1979, although a bit more of the reduction comes in the form of non-cash benefits. In general, the net effect of means-tested support has been to reduce poverty rates by about three percentage points for all individuals (as shown in Table SUM 4) and by about five percentage points for individuals in families with related children under six (as shown in Table SUM 5).

Figure SUM 5. Trends in Poverty before and after Including Means-Tested Benefits: All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18 Years of Age, 1979 – 1996

Percent of Population in Poverty

Source: Table SUM 5.

 

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Table SUM 5. Percentage of Persons in Poverty before and after Including Means-Tested Benefits: All Persons in Families with Related Children under 18 Years of Age, 1979-1996

	1979	1981	1983	1986	1989	1991	1993	1995	1996
Note: The first measure of poverty, labeled cash income plus all social insurance, includes social security but not means-tested cash transfers. Adding means-tested cash transfers yields the official census definition of poverty, the second line in the table. Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is added. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit, which is always positive whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. The fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid is not included. Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.
Cash Income plus All Social Insurance	14.3	17.4	19.1	17.4	16.8	18.8	20.0	18.1	17.8
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	12.9	16.3	18.4	16.5	15.8	17.7	18.7	16.8	16.6
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	10.2	13.9	16.5	14.6	13.6	15.3	16.4	14.3	14.4
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	10.5	15.2	17.7	15.8	14.1	15.3	15.9	13.0	12.9
Reduction in Poverty Rate	3.8	2.2	1.4	1.6	3.5	3.5	4.1	5.1	4.9

The relatively small changes in the level of overall deprivation since the late 1980s are consistent with the small changes in the dependence rate seen earlier. As larger changes in dependence occur under PRWORA, it will be both necessary and interesting to track changes in these deprivation rates as well. If this legislation succeeds in its aims, dependence should fall noticeably while deprivation measures remain largely unchanged.

Data Sources

For purposes of this report, the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) has been used the most extensively and is considered the most useful national survey. Its strengths are its longitudinal design, system of monthly accounting, and detail concerning employment, income and participation in federal income-support and related programs. These features make the SIPP particularly effective for capturing the complexities of program dynamics and many of the indicators and predictors, or risk factors, associated with welfare receipt.

The SIPP does not, however, follow families for more than three years. Therefore, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) also are used in this report. Both the PSID and NLSY collect annual income data, including transfer income, over a long time-period, providing vital data for indicators of long-term and intergenerational welfare receipt, dependence, and deprivation.

Some indicators in this report are based upon the annual Current Population Survey (CPS), which is available on a more timely basis than the SIPP. The CPS measures income and poverty over a single annual accounting period, and provides important information regarding childhood poverty.

Finally, the report also draws upon administrative data for the AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI programs.

Chapter II . Indicators of Dependence

Following the format of last year’s first annual report to Congress, this second chapter presents summary data related to twelve indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested consideration of the following proposed definition of dependence:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about dependence, following, to the extent feasible, the definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence, that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities. Instead, this chapter includes some indicators that focus on the percentage of recipients’ income from meanstested assistance, while other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt. Still other indicators present summary data and characteristics on all recipients, not limited to those with more than 50 percent of total income from welfare programs or those without work activities.

Overall, the twelve indicators of dependency were selected to reflect both the range and depth of dependence. The summary data provide information about:

• the degree to which recipients are dependent on assistance (Indicator 1),
• how long recipients receive welfare or remain dependent (Indicators 3, 5, 6),
• welfare and dependence transitions (Indicators 2 and 11),
• participation in the labor force while receiving assistance (Indicators 4),
• multiple program receipt (Indicator 7),
• events associated with entries and exits from welfare (Indicator 8),
• recipiency and participation rates over time (Indicators 9 and 10), and
• intergenerational dependence (Indicator 12).

Indicators in this chapter focus on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for elderly and disabled recipients, and the Food Stamp Program. Only limited administrative data are available to report on recipients of the new Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. These are shown in Indicator 9a, which reports AFDC/TANF recipiency rates through 1997. For some indicators, data are presented for the most recent year only; for other indicators, trend data are provided.

Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence

This indicator captures the degree of dependence by examining total family income and the percentage of total family income from means-tested assistance programs.

Figure IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, 1994

Source: Table IND 1a.

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• Less than 6 percent of the total population in 1994 received more than half of their total income from AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI.
• Eighty-two percent of the total population received no means-tested assistance in 1994. Table IND 1a reveals a similar pattern for 1993 (82 percent), 1992 (83 percent), 1990 (86 percent) and 1987 (85 percent).
• For all persons who received some assistance, most received 25 percent or less of their total family income from AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI (10 percent of the total population). Table IND 1a shows similar percentages for other years (10 percent in 1993, 9 percent in 1992, 8 percent in 1990, and 8 percent in 1987).
• As shown in Table IND 1a, a larger percentage of non-Hispanic blacks received more than 50 percent of their income from means-tested assistance programs than Hispanics or non-Hispanic whites in all five years presented. However, even in these groups more than 80 percent were not dependent on welfare under the definition used here.

Table IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, Selected Years

	0%	> 0% and <= 25%	> 25% and <= 50%	Total > 50%	> 50% and <= 75%	Total > 75%
Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC, SSI and Food Stamps. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Total > 50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their income from these means-tested programs. The 1993 data have been revised based on the 1993 SIPP panel; the 1993 data in earlier reports were drawn from an earlier SIPP panel. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992 and 1993 panels.
1994
All Persons	82	9.9	2.5	5.6	1.6	4
Non-Hispanic White	88.9	7.1	1.4	2.6	0.9	1.7
Non-Hispanic Black	56.8	20	6.3	16.8	5.1	11.7
Hispanic	62.9	17.9	6.3	12.9	3.2	9.7
Children Age 0 - 5	67.6	14.6	5.3	12.5	2.8	9.7
Children Age 6 - 10	71.4	12.6	4	12	3	9
Children Age 11 - 15	75.1	11.8	3.9	9.3	2.6	6.7
Women Age 16 - 64	82.5	9.7	2.3	5.5	1.7	3.8
Men Age 16 – 64	87.7	8.4	1.4	2.5	0.9	1.6
Adults Age 65 and over	87.7	8.2	2	2.2	1	1.1
1993
All Persons	82.2	9.5	2.5	5.9	1.6	4.3
Non-Hispanic White	88.8	7	1.4	2.8	0.8	2
Non-Hispanic Black	58.6	17.7	6.9	16.7	5	11.8
Hispanic	62.9	17.2	5.7	14.2	3.2	11
Children Age 0 - 5	68.5	13.9	4.3	13.3	2.9	10.4
Children Age 6 - 10	72.8	11.1	3.9	12.3	2.7	9.7
Children Age 11 - 15	75.9	10.2	3.4	10.5	2.8	7.6
Women Age 16 - 64	82.2	9.5	2.5	5.8	1.7	4.1
Men Age 16 – 64	87.7	8.2	1.4	2.7	0.8	1.9
Adults Age 65 and over	88.1	7.7	2.3	2	0.8	1.2
1992
All Persons	83.1	9.3	2.7	4.9	1.4	3.5
Non-Hispanic White	89	6.8	1.8	2.4	0.8	1.6
Non-Hispanic Black	59	18.3	6.9	15.9	4.1	11.7
Hispanic	66.7	17.6	5.1	10.5	2.5	8
Children Age 0 - 5	71.1	12.1	4.6	12.2	3	9.3
Children Age 6 - 10	76.2	10.7	3.6	9.5	2.6	6.9
Children Age 11 - 15	76.8	11.9	3.8	7.5	2.1	5.4
Women Age 16 - 64	83	9.2	2.8	5	1.3	3.7
Men Age 16 – 64	88.2	8.2	1.6	1.9	0.7	1.3
Adults Age 65 and over	87.4	8	2.5	2	1	1.1
1990
All Persons	85.9	7.9	2	4.2	1.2	3
Non-Hispanic White	91.1	5.7	1.1	2.1	0.6	1.5
Non-Hispanic Black	63.4	16	6	14.6	5.2	9.3
Hispanic	70.5	16.8	4.4	8.3	2.1	6.2
Children Age 0 - 5	76	11	2.8	10.3	2.4	7.9
Children Age 6 - 10	79.8	9.2	2.6	8.5	2.4	6
Children Age 11 - 15	81.2	9.6	2.8	6.4	1.8	4.5
Women Age 16 - 64	85.9	7.7	1.8	4.6	1.3	3.2
Men Age 16 – 64	90.5	6.7	1.3	1.5	0.5	1
Adults Age 65 and over	87.9	7.4	2.8	1.9	1	0.9
1987
All Persons	85.1	8.2	2.1	4.7	1.3	3.3
Non-Hispanic White	90.7	5.8	1.3	2.2	0.9	1.3
Non-Hispanic Black	59.1	18.7	6.5	15.7	3.9	11.8
Hispanic	71.7	13.6	3.8	10.9	2.2	8.7
Children Age 0 - 5	75.5	10.9	3.7	10	2.7	7.3
Children Age 6 - 10	76.8	10.5	2.6	10.1	2.8	7.3
Children Age 11 - 15	80.2	9.2	2.6	8	1.6	6.4
Women Age 16 - 64	85.6	7.9	1.9	4.6	1.1	3.5
Men Age 16 – 64	89.9	6.8	1.4	2	0.8	1.2
Adults Age 65 and over	86.4	8.6	2.5	2.6	1.4	1.2

Figure IND 1b. Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

Source: Table IND 1b.

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• For half of all recipients, AFDC and Food Stamps made up 50 percent or less of their total income in all years between 1982 and 1991. As shown in Table IND 1b, this was also true for 55 percent of all recipients between 1972 and 1981.
• The percentage of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from AFDC and Food Stamps for 6 to10 years during the 1982 to 1991 period is considerably smaller than the corresponding percentage who were dependent for 1 to 5 years (13 percent compared to 38 percent).
• As shown in Table IND 1b, among child recipients, the percentage of black children who were not dependent—that is, were in families who did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and Food Stamps in any year increased across the two time periods (from 24 percent to 31 percent). In comparison, the percentage of non-black recipient children who were not dependent decreased substantially across the two time periods (from 50 percent to 37 percent).

Table IND 1b. Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

	All Recipients: 1982 - 1991
Cumulative Years	All Recipients	Black	Non-Black
	100%	100%	100%
0 Years	50	43	54
1 - 2 Years	23	21	25
3 - 5 Years	15	17	14
6 - 8 Years	9	12	6
9 - 10 Years	4	7	2

	Children 0 - 5 in 1982: 1982 - 1991
Cumulative Years	All Child Recipients	Black	Non-Black
	100%	100%	100%
0 Years	34	31	37
1 - 2 Years	28	19	35
3 - 5 Years	16	18	15
6 - 8 Years	13	19	9
9 - 10 Years	8	14	4

	All Recipients: 1972 - 1981
Cumulative Years	All Recipients	Black	Non-Black
	100%	100%	100%
0 Years	55	44	62
1 - 2 Years	22	22	22
3 - 5 Years	14	19	11
6 - 8 Years	5	9	3
9 - 10 Years	4	7	2

	Children 0 - 5 in 1972: 1972 - 1981
Cumulative Years	All Child Recipients	Black	Non-Black
	100%	100%	100%
Note: Recipients are defined as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC or Food Stamps in the first year (1982 or 1972). Child recipients are defined by age in the first year. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1972 - 1991.
0 Years	39	24	50
1 - 2 Years	25	27	23
3 - 5 Years	21	27	17
6 - 8 Years	6	9	4
9 - 10 Years	9	12	6

Figure IND 1c. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1994

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

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• Not surprisingly, poorer families received a larger percentage of their income from transfer programs and Food Stamps while wealthier families received a larger percentage of their income from earnings.
• Poor individuals (those in families with incomes below100 percent of poverty) received 42 percent of their total family income from means-tested assistance programs (transfer income and Food Stamps). In contrast, the percentage of total family income from means-tested assistance programs is much lower for those who are at least 200 percent above the poverty line (less than one percent).
• Those living in deep poverty (total family income less than 50 percent of the poverty line) relied heavily on transfer income from AFDC and SSI (38 percent of total family income) as well as Food Stamps (35 percent of total family income).
• The composition of income for all poor persons (less than 100 percent of poverty) is significantly different than the composition for those living in deep poverty (less than 50 percent of poverty). For example, the percentage of income from earnings for all poor individuals is more than twice the percent for those in deep poverty (40 percent compared to 16 percent). Those in deep poverty also rely much more heavily on income from transfer programs and Food Stamps compared to the full poverty population.

Table IND 1c. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1994

	<50% of poverty	<100% of poverty	<150% of poverty	<200% of poverty	200%+ of poverty
Note: Transfer income is defined as AFDC and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included in AFDC income. Other income is non-means-tested, nonearnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
All Persons
Means-Tested Transfer Income	38.2	25.7	15.1	9	0.2
Food Stamps	34.6	16	8.8	5	0
Earnings	15.9	40.3	54.7	64.6	85.1
Other Income	11.3	18	21.5	21.4	14.6
Average Income	$ 6,946	$ 10,708	$ 13,377	$ 16,740	$ 57,249
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White
Means-Tested Transfer Income	28	20	10.5	5.5	0.2
Food Stamps	30.3	13.2	6.4	3.1	0
Earnings	24.2	42.9	55	64.8	84.3
Other Income	17.8	21.1	24.6	23.7	15.1
Average Income	$ 5,296	$ 9,589	$ 12,609	$ 16,448	$ 58,188
Non-Hispanic Black
Means-Tested Transfer Income	44.1	31.5	21.8	15.4	0.6
Food Stamps	40.5	20.2	12.7	8.8	0.2
Earnings	8.3	31	47.3	58.8	88.4
Other Income	6.5	17.5	18.1	16.8	10.4
Average Income	$ 7,571	$ 10,773	$ 13,470	$ 16,427	$ 46,819
Hispanic
Means-Tested Transfer Income	41	25.4	15.7	11.2	0.5
Food Stamps	34	16.6	9.8	6.5	0.1
Earnings	15.3	46.6	62	70	89.9
Other Income	6.2	14.7	16.2	15.6	10.4
Average Income	$ 8,709	$ 12,666	$ 15,114	$ 17,918	$ 48,917
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5
Means-Tested Transfer Income	44.4	28.6	17.9	11.8	0.2
Food Stamps	37.1	19.6	12.1	7.7	0.1
Earnings	11.2	40.8	58.8	70	93.4
Other Income	0	0	0	0	0
Average Income	$ 7,825	$ 11,813	$ 14,763	$ 18,236	$ 59,336
Children Age 6 - 10
Means-Tested Transfer Income	39.9	28.2	18	11.4	0.2
Food Stamps	36.9	18.3	11.1	6.8	0
Earnings	14.7	40.9	58.1	70	93
Other Income	6.5	10.1	10.5	9.8	5.9
Average Income	$ 8,675	$ 12,802	$ 15,688	$ 19,408	$ 63,068
Children Age 11 - 15
Means-Tested Transfer Income	37.2	27.7	16.7	9.7	0.2
Food Stamps	35.8	17.9	10.5	6	0
Earnings	16.9	39.9	56.7	68.9	92.4
Other Income	8.5	12.6	12.8	11.5	6.5
Average Income	$ 8,628	$ 12,822	$ 15,718	$ 19,780	$ 65,892
Women Age 16 - 64
Means-Tested Transfer Income	36.9	26.6	15.5	9.2	0.2
Food Stamps	33.6	15.5	8.5	4.8	0
Earnings	17.2	40.6	57.4	68.4	87.8
Other Income	18.6	20.2	21.8	19.7	10.9
Average Income	$ 6,126	$ 9,808	$ 12,636	$ 16,045	$ 57,632
Men Age 16 - 64
Means-Tested Transfer Income	23.5	18.7	10.7	6	0.2
Food Stamps	25.8	11.6	5.8	3	0
Earnings	27.1	50.3	63.1	72.7	89.1
Other Income	18.5	17.6	18.6	17.1	11.2
Average Income	$ 4,837	$ 10,173	$ 13,488	$ 17,335	$ 58,751
Adults Age 65 and over
Means-Tested Transfer Income	18.1	16.4	9.9	5.8	0.4
Food Stamps	16.2	4.1	1.9	1	0
Earnings	9.1	2.2	5.1	7.8	24.8
Other Income	25.4	26.4	26.4	25.1	17.3
Average Income	$ 2,970	$ 6,400	$ 8,877	$ 11,199	$ 39,791

Indicator 2. Dependence Transitions

Whereas other indicators (Indicator 1a) illustrate the depth of dependence in a single year, this indicator reflects changes in the level of dependence over two years.

Figure IND 2. Dependency Status in 1994 of Persons who Received More Than 50 Percent of Income from Assistance in 1993

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

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• Four-fifths of all recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1993 also received more than 50 percent of their total income from these same programs in 1994 (80 percent).
• Of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI in 1993, a larger percentage of non-Hispanic whites became “less dependent” in 1994 (received 50 percent or less of their total income from means-tested assistance programs) compared to Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks, although the ratios were similar across all categories.
• While only a small percentage of all recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1993 received no aid in 1994, the corresponding percentage for Hispanics in 1994 (3 percent) is somewhat larger than the percentages for the other groups.
• As shown in Table IND 2, a slightly larger percentage of women who received more than half of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1993 remained “dependent” in 1994 compared to the same percentage for men (79 percent compared to 76 percent).

Table IND. 2. Dependency Status in 1994 of Persons Who Received More Than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1993

		Percentage of Persons Receiving
MORE THAN 50% TRANSFER INCOME IN 1993	Total (thousands)	No Aid in 1994	Up to 50% Aid in 1994	More than 50% Aid in 1994
Note: Means-tested assistance is defined as AFDC, Food Stamps, and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
All persons	14810	1.6	18.6	79.8
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	5157	1.9	21.8	76.2
Non-Hispanic Black	4851	1.3	14.9	83.8
Hispanic origin	3623	2.7	17.5	79.8
Age Categories
Children Age 0−5	3639	1.3	18.1	80.6
Children Age 6−10	2275	2.5	14.5	83.0
Children Age 11−15	1800	1.1	22.2	76.7
Men 16−64	1937	1.3	22.7	76.0
Women 16−64	4588	2.0	19.0	79.0
Adults 65 years and over	571	0.0	9.1	90.7

Indicator 3. Dependence Spell Duration

In contrast to the indicator on duration of spells of means-tested assistance (Indicator 5), this indicator of dependence spell duration combines information on spells of receipt of means-tested assistance and paid employment.

Figure IND 3. Duration of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families Where No One Is in the Labor Force

Source: Table IND 3.

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• Forty-three percent of AFDC spells for individuals in families with no one in the labor force ended within a year.
• Over one-quarter (27 percent) of AFDC spells for individuals in families where no one participated in the labor force were less than four months long.
• As shown in Table IND 3, a smaller percentage of AFDC spells to children in families with no labor force participants ended in less than four months compared to their adult counterparts (25 percent compared to 31 percent).

Table IND 3. Percentage of AFDC Spells for Individuals with No Family Member in the Labor Force by Length of Spell

	Percent of Spells
	Spells <4 months	Spells <12 months	Spells <20 months	Spells 20+ months
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those spells starting during the 1993 SIPP panel. For certain racial categories, data are not available (NA) because of insufficient sample size. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
All persons	27.2	43.4	50.3	49.7
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	30.2	40.7	43.0	57.0
Non-Hispanic Black	17.4	45.6	NA	NA
Hispanic	33.2	NA	NA	NA
Age
Children 0-15	24.7	41.9	49.1	50.9
Adults Age 16-64	30.6	45.8	51.9	48.1

Indicator 4. Receipt of Means-tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment

This indicator illustrates one aspect of the range of dependence by combining information on receipt of means-tested assistance and hours of employment.

Figure IND 4a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

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• In 1994, 46 percent of individuals who received AFDC, 38 percent of individuals who received SSI, and 57 percent of individuals who received Food Stamps were in families with at least one person in the labor force.
• A larger percentage of individuals who received Food Stamps, compared to AFDC and SSI, were in families with at least one family member who participated in the labor force full-time.
• As shown in Table IND 4a, among AFDC recipients, a larger percentage of children under age 6 were in families with at least one full-time labor force participant compared to children age 6 to 15.
• As further shown in Table IND 4a, similar percentages of non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black AFDC recipients were in families with at least one full-time labor force participant (22 percent for both groups).

Table IND 4a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

		No One in LF	At least 1 in LF No One FT	At least 1 FT Labor Force Participant
Note: Full-time labor force participants are defined as those who usually work 35 or more hours per week. Data on receipt of SSI for young children is not available. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
AFDC	All Recipients	54.5	25.3	20.2
	Non-Hispanic White	51.2	26.3	22.4
	Non-Hispanic Black	53.2	24.8	22.1
	Hispanic	62.5	20.7	16.8
	Children Age 0 to 5	57.1	21.6	21.4
	Children Age 6 to 10	59.3	23.8	16.9
	Children Age 11 to 15	57.8	26.5	15.7
	Women 16 to 64	52.5	25.7	21.8
	Men 16 to 64	32.0	40.9	27.1
	Adults 65 years and over	68.7	29.4	1.9
SSI	All Recipients	62.1	11.8	26.1
	Non-Hispanic White	60.7	12.1	27.2
	Non-Hispanic Black	66.7	12.0	21.3
	Hispanic	61.5	11.3	27.1
	Children Age 0 to 5	NA	NA	NA
	Children Age 6 to 10	NA	NA	NA
	Children Age 11 to 15	58.9	0.0	41.1
	Women 16 to 64	56.7	14.9	28.4
	Men 16 to 64	56.9	13.2	29.9
	Adults 65 years and over	73.1	6.8	20.1
FOOD STAMPS	All Recipients	43.5	24.7	31.8
	Non-Hispanic White	40.6	25.6	33.8
	Non-Hispanic Black	47.3	23.8	28.9
	Hispanic	44.2	22.3	33.6
	Children Age 0 to 5	43.0	22.1	34.9
	Children Age 6 to 10	44.6	24.2	31.2
	Children Age 11 to 15	42.3	27.2	30.5
	Women 16 to 64	31.0	30.4	38.6
	Men 16 to 64	43.4	26.0	30.6
	Adults Age 65 and over	81.9	6.6	11.5

Figure IND 4b. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, Selected Years

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

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As shown in Figure IND 4b, the percentage of all AFDC recipients living in families with at least one full-time labor force participant increased from 17 percent in 1987 to 20 percent in 1994.

In all years shown above, more than half of all AFDC recipients lived in families where no one participated in the labor force.

As shown in Table IND 4b, while 28 percent of AFDC recipients in 1992 lived in families with at least one labor force participant but no full-time participants, this percent decreased to 25 in 1994.

Table IND 4b. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, Selected Years

	No one In LF	At least 1 in LF No one FT	At least 1 FT Participant
Note: Full-time labor force participants are defined as those who usually work 35 or more hours per week. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.
1994	54.5	25.3	20.2
1993	56.5	25.7	17.8
1992	54.2	28.1	17.7
1991	57.8	23.7	18.5
1990	58.3	23.3	18.4
1988	58.3	28.1	16.6
1987	55.3	28.1	16.6

Indicator 5. Program Spell Duration

One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. This indicator provides information on the length of individual spells.

Figure IND 5. Spells of Program Participation, 1993 SIPP Panel

Source: Table IND 5.

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Short spells lasting less than 4 months accounted for 31 percent of AFDC spells, 24 percent of SSI spells, and 33 percent of Food Stamp spells.

Over one-half of all AFDC and Food Stamp spells lasted less than one year (56 percent and 60 percent, respectively). In contrast, only 32 percent of SSI spells ended within one year. The percentage of SSI spells that lasted 20 or more months is twice the percentage of AFDC and Food Stamp spells that lasted this long.

As shown in Table IND 5, for AFDC spells, a larger percentage of short spells (lasting less than 4 months) and a smaller percentage of long spells (lasting 20 or more months) occurred among non-Hispanic whites compared to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.

As further shown in Table IND 5, a larger percentage of AFDC and Food Stamp spells among adults age 16 to 64 ended within 4 months compared to spells among children age 0 to 15.

Table IND 5. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Indiviudals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel by Length of Spell

	Percentage of Spells
	Spells <4 months	Spells <12 months	Spells <20 months	Spells 20+ months
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. For certain age and racial categories, data are not available (NA) because of insufficient sample size. Data on SSI recipiency for children are not available. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 Panel.
AFDC
Recipients	30.7	56.1	68.6	31.4
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	35.6	62.2	72.3	27.7
Non-Hispanic Black	24.6	52.3	66.7	33.3
Hispanic origin	30.8	52.5	63.4	36.6
Age Categories
Children Age 0 to 15	28.1	53.6	65.6	34.4
Adults 16 to 64 years	33.5	59.0	72.2	27.8
SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME
Recipients	24.0	31.9	36.6	63.4
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	27.2	34.6	40.8	59.2
Non-Hispanic Black	20.5	26.2	30.0	70.0
Hispanic origin	20.0	32.2	NA	NA
Age Categories
Adults 16 to 64 years	26.8	34.6	39.7	60.3
FOOD STAMPS
Recipients	33.1	59.9	70.0	30.0
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	34.3	62.1	71.5	28.5
Non-Hispanic Black	28.4	53.4	64.9	35.1
Hispanic origin	35.4	64.0	71.1	28.9
Age Categories
Children Age 0 to 15	29.8	56.5	67.0	33.0
Adults 16 to 64 years	35.9	63.0	72.8	27.2

Indicator 6. Long-term Receipt

Lifetime welfare receipt often occurs in more than one episode. Indicators that measure the duration of receipt over a lifetime further reflect the depth of dependence.

Figure IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long-Term Receipt, 1982 – 1991

Source: Table IND 6.

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Between 1982 and 1991, almost half of all recipients received AFDC in only one or two years (47 percent) and only about one-fifth of all recipients received AFDC for 9 to 10 years (11 percent). Table IND 6 shows that this was also true between 1972 and 1981 (49 percent and 11 percent respectively).

As shown in Table IND 6, compared to non-black recipients, a smaller percentage of black recipients received AFDC for only 1 to 2 years while a larger percentage received AFDC for 9 to 10 years in both ten-year time periods.

As further shown in Table IND 6, a smaller percentage of child recipients experienced shortterm receipt and a larger percentage experienced longer-term receipt in both time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients.

Table IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long-Term Receipt

	All Recipients 1982 - 1991
Cumulative Years	All Recipients	Black	Non-Black
1 - 2 Years	47	37	53
3 - 5 Years	28	27	28
6 - 8 Years	15	19	12
9 - 10 Years	11	17	6

	Children 0 - 5 in 1982: 1982-1991
Cumulative Years	All Child Recipients	Black Children	Non-Black Children
1 - 2 Years	34	28	39
3 - 5 Years	29	28	30
6 - 8 Years	17	16	19
9 - 10 Years	20	29	13

	All Recipients 1972 - 1981
Cumulative Years	All Recipients	Black	Non-Black
1 - 2 Years	49	32	59
3 - 5 Years	28	34	25
6 - 8 Years	13	19	9
9 - 10 Years	11	15	8

	Children 0 - 5 in 1972: 1972-1981
Cumulative Years	All Child Recipients	Black Children	Non-Black Children
Note: Recipients are defined as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC or Food Stamps in the past year (1982 or 1972). Child recipients are defined by age in the first year. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1972 - 1991.
1 - 2 Years	37	24	46
3 - 5 Years	29	31	27
6 - 8 Years	15	23	10
9 - 10 Years	19	23	17

Indicator 7. Multiple Program Receipt

Data on multiple program receipt illustrates the nature of means-tested assistance “packages” and one aspect of the depth of dependence.

Figure IND 7. Percentage of Individuals in AFDC Families Receiving Other Assistance, 1994

Source: Table IND 7.

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• The vast majority of the AFDC population receives AFDC benefits in combination with Food Stamps, SSI, or both Food Stamps and SSI. Only about 8 percent received AFDC benefits without other means-tested assistance in 1994, as shown in Figure IND 7.
• The most common pattern of multiple program receipt in 1994, found among 89 percent of the AFDC population, was to receive both AFDC and Food Stamps. An additional 3 percent received AFDC, Food Stamps, and SSI. Finally, less than one-half percent received AFDC and SSI, but not Food Stamps. (Note that individuals may not receive both AFDC and SSI; however, a SSI recipient may be in a family where other members receive AFDC benefits.)
• Over time, the proportion of AFDC recipients also receiving Food Stamps has been constant varying only between 88 and 90 percent.

Table IND 7. Percentage of Individuals in AFDC Families Receiving Assistance from Other Programs

	AFDC and Food Stamps Only					AFDC and SSI Only
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
All Recipients	88.4	88.6	89.6	89.9	88.8	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.3
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	86.8	87.9	88.2	88.2	86.3	0.3	0.5	1.4	0.2	0.3
Non-Hispanic Black	88.3	87.0	90.1	90.6	89.8	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.4
Hispanic	91.0	92.3	90.1	91.4	89.1	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.3
Age Categories
Children Age 0-5	90.7	89.7	92.3	93.1	93.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Children Age 6-10	91.5	93.4	92.5	94.3	92.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Children Age 11-15	92.0	92.1	94.5	93.2	92.2	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
Women Age 16-64	84.9	85.0	85.8	84.5	82.4	0.7	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.7
Men Age 16-64	85.1	84.6	83.4	86.4	84.9	0.4	1.1	1.1	0.2	0.3

	AFDC, SSIand Food Stamps					AFDC Only
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Note: Categories are mutually exclusive. Individuals may not receive both AFDC and SSI; however, an SSI recipient may be in a family where other members receive AFDC benefits. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1990, 1992, 1993 panels.
All Recipients	1.7	1.9	2.4	2.9	3.2	9.5	9.1	7.6	7.0	7.7
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	1.9	1.7	2.6	3.4	3.7	11.0	9.9	7.8	8.3	9.7
Non-Hispanic Black	1.7	2.4	2.7	2.8	3.2	9.6	10.1	6.5	6.2	6.7
Hispanic	1.3	1.6	1.5	2.2	2.8	7.6	6.0	8.0	6.4	7.7
Age Categories
Children Age 0-5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.3	10.3	7.7	6.9	6.3
Children Age 6-10	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.5	6.6	7.5	5.7	7.6
Children Age 11-15	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	8.0	7.7	5.3	6.7	7.7
Women Age 16-64	4.1	4.6	5.8	7.8	8.9	10.3	9.6	7.6	7.2	8.0
Men Age 16-64	4.4	5.2	4.7	3.8	3.4	10.1	9.1	10.8	9.6	11.3

Indicator 8. Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Receipt of Means-tested Assistance

The circumstances that are associated with beginnings or endings of receipt of assistance. reveal an important aspect of dependence that provides critical guidance for policy makers.

Table IND 8a. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Beginnings Associated with Specific Events

	Spell Began 1973 - 1979	Spell Began 1980 - 1985	Spell Began 1986 - 1991
Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 – 1992.
First birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother	27.9	20.9	22.2
First birth to a married and/or cohabiting mother	13.3	17.4	11.3
Second (or higher order) birth	19.9	18.2	15.2
Divorce/separation	19.7	28.1	17.3
Mother's work hours decreased by more than 500 hours per year	26.3	18.8	26.2
Other adults' work hours decreased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure	34.8	27.9	21.6
Other adults' work hours decreased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure	4.7	7.9	11.4
Householder acquired work limitation	18.1	15.6	23.5
Other transfer income dropped by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	4.5	6.5	4.1
Changed state of residence	4.5	10.6	5.4

• Between 1986 and 1991, the most common events associated with the beginnings of a first AFDC episode were work-related: a decrease in mother’s work hours (26 percent), a decrease in work hours of another adult (22 percent), and the acquisition of a work limitation (24 percent). In addition, over one-fifth (22 percent) of first spells were associated with a first birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother.
• Between 1973 and 1979, first births to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother were associated with 28 percent of first AFDC episodes. In contrast, such births were associated with 21 percent of first spells beginning between 1980 and 1985, and 22 percent beginning between 1986 and 1991.
• The percentage of first AFDC spell beginnings associated with a householder acquiring a work limitation was higher for spells that began between 1986 and 1991 (24 percent) than for spells that began between 1973 and 1979 (16 percent) or 1980 to 1985 (18 percent).

Table IND 8b. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Endings Associated with Specific Events

	Spell Ended 1973 - 1979	Spell Ended 1980 – 1985	Spell Ended 1986 - 1991
Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a selfreported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.
Mother married or acquired cohabitor	16.1	17.1	21.7
Children under 18 no longer present	4.4	4.1	4.8
Mother's work hours increased by more than 500 hours per year	15.4	25.0	27.1
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure	21.8	16.8	16.7
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure	6.5	10.3	5.8
Householder no longer reports work limitation	13.0	19.2	15.8
Other transfer income increased by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	5.0	5.5	5.8
Changed state of residence	5.9	11.0	5.9

• During the 1986 to 1991 time period, over one-fourth (27 percent) of first AFDC spell endings were associated with increases in mother’s work hours. The corresponding percentage was slightly smaller for spells ending in the 1980 to 1985 period (25 percent) and much smaller for spells ending between 1973 and 1979 (15 percent).
• In the 1973 - 1979 period, a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in work hours for other adults (22 percent) as compared to mothers (15 percent). In the more recent time period (1986 - 1991), a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in mother’s work hours (27 percent) compared to other adults (17 percent).

Indicator 9. Percent of the Population Receiving Means-tested Assistance

The rate of receipt reflects an important aspect of dependence by measuring the extent to which various population subgroups rely on the major means-tested programs.

Figure IND 9a. AFDC Recipients as a Percent of the Population

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Release PPL-91, United States Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1990 to 1997, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

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• In all years between 1970 and 1997, the percentage of all children who received AFDC is much larger than that for adults.
• Participation for children under age 18 increased substantially between 1970 and 1976. While remaining relatively stable through most of the 1980s, the trend again increased dramatically from 1990 to 1994 before declining to its current level.
• Table IND 9a shows that between 1994 and 1997 the percentage of all children who received AFDC decreased more than three percentage points (from 14.0 percent to 10.8 percent).

Table IND 9a. AFDC/TANF Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years ¹

	1970	1975	1980	1985	1988	1990	1994	1996	1997 4
1 The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC Program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families Program. 2 Does not include the territories. 3 Includes a small number of dependents 18 and older who are students. 4 Average number of adults and children based on the first three quarter of 1997 only; data on number of adults and children under TANF not currently available. Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9a are included in the table. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, release PPL-91, United States Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1990 to 1997, (available online at http://www.census.gov).
AFDC/TANF Recipients (millions) 2
Total Recipients	7.2	10.9	10.4	10.6	10.7	11.3	14.0	12.5	10.8
Adult Recipients	1.9	3.1	3.2	3.6	3.5	3.6	4.6	3.9	3.1
Child Recipients 3	5.3	7.8	7.2	7.0	7.2	7.6	9.5	8.6	7.7
AFDC/TANF RecipiencyRates (percent)
Total	3.5	5.0	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.5	5.4	4.7	4.0
Adults	1.4	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.4	2.0	1.6
Children	7.6	11.6	11.3	11.2	11.4	11.9	13.9	12.4	11.0

Figure IND 9b. Food Stamp Recipients as a Percent of the Population

Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Summer 1996, and earlier reports and U.S. Bureau of the Census, release PPL-91, United States Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1990 to 1997, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

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• In all years between 1970 and 1997, the percentage of all children who received AFDC is much larger than that for adults.
• Participation for children under age 18 increased substantially between 1970 and 1976. While remaining relatively stable through most of the 1980s, the trend again increased dramatically from 1990 to 1994 before declining to its current level.

Table IND 9a shows that between 1994 and 1997 the percentage of all children who received AFDC decreased more than three percentage points (from 14.0 percent to 10.8 percent).

	1975	1980	1985	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996
1 Does not include the territories. Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9b are included in the table. Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Summer 1996, and earlier reports and U.S. Bureau of the Census, release PPL-91, United States Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1990 to 1997, (Available online at http://www.census.gov.)
Food Stamp Recipients (millions) 1
Total (all ages)	17.1	19.2	19.8	18.6	20.0	25.4	27.4	25.5
Adults (60 and over)	NA	1.7	1.8	1.5	1.5	1.7	2.0	1.9
Adults (18 to 59)	NA	7.2	8.3	7.5	8.1	10.5	11.5	10.8
Children	NA	9.9	9.9	9.4	10.1	13.3	14.4	13.0
Food Stamp Recipiency Rates (percent)
Total (all ages)	7.9	8.4	8.3	7.6	8.0	9.9	10.5	9.6
Adults (60 and over)	NA	4.9	4.5	3.7	3.6	4.0	4.5	4.3
Adults (18-59)	NA	5.6	6.1	5.3	5.6	7.2	7.7	7.1
Children	NA	15.5	15.8	14.8	15.8	20.2	21.2	18.8

Figure IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population

Note: Recipients are reported as of December in each year.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html) and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Release PPL-91, United States Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1990 to 1997, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

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• In all years between 1974 and 1996, the percentage of adults 65 and older who received SSI is much larger than that for all other age groups.
• Trends are similar for all persons under age 64 generally increasing between 1974 and 1996. For those 65 and older, the trend moves in the opposite direction decreasing dramatically from nearly 11 percent in 1974 to 6 percent in 1996.

Table IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

	Dec '75	Dec '80	Dec '85	Dec '88	Dec '90	Dec '92	Dec '94	Dec '96	Dec '97
1 December population figures used as the denominators are obtained by averaging the Census’ July 1 population estimate for the current and the following year. 2 Children includes some recipients 18 and older who are students. Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9c are included in the table. Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html) and U.S. Bureau of the Census, release PPL-91, United States Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1990 to 1997, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).
SSI Recipients (millions)
Total (all ages)	4.3	4.1	4.1	4.5	4.8	5.6	6.3	6.6	6.5
Adults (65 and over)	2.5	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
Adults (18 to 64)	1.7	1.7	1.8	2.2	2.4	2.8	3.3	3.5	3.5
Children 2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.9
SSI Recipiency Rates (percent)
Total (all ages)	2.0	1.8	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.2	2.4	2.5	2.4
Adults (65 and over)	10.9	8.6	7.1	6.6	6.5	6.5	6.4	6.2	6.0
Adults (18-64)	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.1	2.1
Children	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.9	1.3	1.5	1.3

Indicator 10. Rates of Participation in Means-tested Assistance Programs

Not all eligible households participate in means-tested programs. This indicator reflects “take up rates” – the number of families that actually participate in the program as a percent of those who are eligible.

Figure IND 10a. AFDC Caseload versus Number of Eligible Families: Number of Cases & Percentage of Total Eligibles

Source: Participation rates estimated by the Urban Institute using TRIM model simulations. Caseload based on data from DHHS, Administration for Children and Families.

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• The percentage of all eligible families who participated in AFDC has varied between 77 percent and 86 percent according to estimates for selected years between 1981 and 1995. Estimates of the total eligible population varied from 4.5 million to over 6 million families over the same time period.

Table IND 10a. AFDC Caseload as a Percentage of Eligible Families

	1981	1983	1985	1987	1989	1990	1992	1994	1995
Source: Participation rates estimated by the Urban Institute using TRIM model simulations. Caseload based on data from DHHS, Administration for Children and Families.
Average Monthly Eligibles	4,827	4,700	4,655	4,933	4,512	4,834	5,565	6,143	5,775
Average Caseload	3,871	3,651	3,692	3,784	3,771	3,974	4,768	5,046	4,869
Participation rate	80	78	79	77	84	82	86	82	84

Figure IND 10b. Food Stamp Households as a Percentage of Eligible Households

Source: Table IND 10b.

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• In all years, larger percentages of children in eligible households received Food Stamps compared to other age groups, and smaller percentages of the elderly in eligible households received Food Stamps compared to other adults and children.
• For disabled persons under age 60, the percentage in eligible households who received Food Stamps increased substantially between 1985 and 1994, from 47 percent in 1985 to 71 percent in 1994.

Table IND 10b. Food Stamp Households as a Percentage of Eligible Households

	Persons	Households	Elderly	Children	Disabled Under 60	Adults 18-59
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates, various years.
August 1985	64	59	37	74	47	65
January 1988	59	56	34	70	55	66
January 1989	59	56	29	68	57	60
January 1992	74	69	33	86	67	77
January 1994	71	69	35	80	71	73

Figure IND 10c. SSI Adult Recipients as a Percentage of Eligible Adults

Source: Table IND 10c.

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• For all adults, the percentage of those eligible that received SSI remained constant between 1993 and 1994 (63 percent) and increased substantially in 1995 (from 63 percent to 70 percent).
• For all adults in 1995, a larger percentage of eligible disabled adults in one-person units participated in the SSI program (74 percent) compared to both eligible aged adults in oneperson units (65 percent) and adults in married-couple units (52 percent).

Table IND 10c. SSI Adult Recipients by Type as a Percentage of Eligible Group

	1993	1994	1995
Note: The figure for married-couple units is based on very small sample sizes–married couple units were only about 5 percent of the adults units in the average month of 1995. Source: Participation rate estimated by the Urban Institute using the TRIM model.
All adults	63	63	70
One-person units– aged	NA	NA	65
One-person units– disabled	NA	NA	74
Married-couple units	NA	NA	52

Indicator 11. Means-tested Assistance Program Transition Rates

This indicator shows how many people have moved onto means-tested assistance programs and how many recipients have moved off means-tested assistance programs.

Figure IND 11a. Percentage of Non-Recipients Moving on to Assistance from 1993 to 1994

Figure IND 11b. Percentage of Recipients Moving off Assistance from 1993 to 1994

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

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• As shown in Figure IND 11a, only a small percentage of individuals who did not receive AFDC in 1993 began receiving AFDC benefits in 1994 (1 percent). In comparison, the percentage of non-recipients who began receiving Food Stamps in 1994 was slightly higher (2 percent) and the percentage of non-recipients who began receiving SSI in 1994 was lower (less than 1 percent).
• As shown in Figure IND 11b, 18 percent of AFDC recipients in 1993 moved off AFDC in 1994. Similarly, 17 percent of Food Stamp recipients in 1993 were no longer receiving Food Stamp benefits in 1994. In contrast, only 9 percent of individuals who received SSI in 1993 left the SSI program in 1994.
• Non-Hispanic whites are somewhat less likely to move from non-assistance to assistance than non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, as shown in Table IND 11. For example, while only 1 percent of non-Hispanic white individuals who did not receive AFDC in 1993 began receiving AFDC benefits in 1994, the corresponding percentages for non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics were somewhat higher (3 percent).
• As shown in Table IND 11, a much higher percentage of Hispanic AFDC recipients in 1993 exited AFDC in 1994 (25 percent) compared to both non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks (17 percent and 12 percent, respectively).
• As further shown in Table IND 11, men are much more likely to move off AFDC and Food Stamps than are women. For example, while 18 percent of women who received AFDC in 1993 were no longer receiving AFDC benefits in 1994, 33 percent of men who received AFDC in 1993 left the AFDC program in 1994.

Table IND 11. Means-Tested Assistance Program Transition Rates, 1993 to 1994

	Number andPercentage of Non-RecipientsMoving onto Assistance
	Non-AFDC to AFDC		Non-FS to FS		Non-SSI to SSI
	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
All Persons	2215	1.0	3878	1.8	702	0.3
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	1159	0.6	2041	1.2	397	0.2
Non-Hispanic Black	503	3.0	922	4.7	155	0.6
Hispanic	437	2.7	734	4.3	114	0.5
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	403	2.4	573	3.9	0	0
Children Age 6 - 10	313	1.9	518	3.6	0	0
Children Age 11 - 15	348	2.1	361	2.4	0	0
Women Age 16 - 64	780	1.0	1299	1.8	415	0.5
Men Age 16 – 64	343	0.4	982	1.3	264	0.3
Adults Age 65 and over	28	0.1	145	0.6	23	0.1

	Number and Percentage of RecipientsMoving off Assistance
	AFDC to Non-AFDC		FS to Non-FS		SSI to Non-SSI
	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
Note: Receipt is measured by at least one month of receipt in a given year and non-receipt is measured as no months of receipt in a given year. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel
All Persons	2799	17.5	5184	16.6	453	8.5
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	1493	16.6	2999	21.5	232	8.8
Non-Hispanic Black	641	11.9	1012	11.4	162	10.7
Hispanic	583	25.0	1070	15.4	35	4.3
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	610	15.3	818	13.7	0	0
Children Age 6 - 10	408	14.0	602	13.2	0	0
Children Age 11 - 15	308	14.3	464	12.6	0	0
Women Age 16 - 64	992	18.3	1796	17.6	288	12.2
Men Age 16 – 64	470	32.5	1418	26.2	118	9.3
Adults Age 65 and over	11	24.1	87	6.1	47	2.8

Indicator 12. Intergenerational Dependence

Another key aspect of dependence is the extent to which parental receipt of means-tested assistance is associated with receipt by their children when the children become adults.

Figure IND 12. Percentage of Youth Recipients (14 to 16) and Youth Non-Recipients (14 to 16) who Received Three Years of Benefits as Adults (25 to 27)

Source: Table IND 12.

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• Individuals who receive AFDC or Food Stamps as children are more likely to receive benefits as adults, as shown in Figure IND 12. Almost one-third (31 percent) of women who received AFDC or Food Stamps in childhood between the ages of 14 and 16 also received AFDC or Food Stamps at ages 25, 26 and 27. In comparison, only 5 percent of women who did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps as youths received three years of benefits as adults.
• The same relationship exists among men, although they have lower rates of receipt of means-tested assistance. As shown in Table IND 12, 14 percent of men who received AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 15 also received three years of benefits in adulthood and a much lower percentage – 2 percent – of men who did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps as youths received benefits at age 25, 26, and 27.
• As shown in Table IND 12, 61 percent of women and 32 percent of men who received AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 16 also received AFDC or Food Stamp benefits in at least one year as adults between the ages of 25 and 27. These percentages are much larger than those for men and women who received benefits as children between the ages of 14 and 16 and received benefits as adults in all three years from age 25 to 27 (31 percent for women and 14 percent for men).

Table IND 12. Association of Benefit Receipt as Youth (14 to 16) with Benefit Receipt as Adults (25 to 27)

	Females born 1960 - 1964	Males born 1960 - 1964
Note: Receipt of AFDC or Food Stamps in a year refers to any amount at any point during the year. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1974 - 1992.
Percent who did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 16 who received AFDC or Food Stamps in all 3 years from age 25 to 27.	5.2	2.3
Percent who received AFDC or Food Stamps for all 3 years between the ages of 14 and 16 who also received AFDC or Food Stamps in all 3 years from age 25 to 27.	30.8	13.5
Percent who did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 16 who received AFDC or Food Stamps in at least 1 year from age 25 to 27.	10.0	8.5
Percent who received AFDC or Food Stamps for all 3 years between the ages of 14 and 16 who received AFDC or Food Stamps in at least 1 year from age 25 to 27.	61.3	31.8

Chapter III. Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt

The Welfare Indicators Act challenges the Department of Health and Human Services, and indirectly the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators, to identify and set forth not only indicators of welfare dependence and welfare duration, but also predictors and causes of welfare receipt. Up to this point, welfare research has not established clear and definitive causes of welfare dependence. However, research has identified a number of risk factors associated with welfare utilization. For purposes of this report, the terms “predictors” and “risk factors” are used somewhat interchangeably, although the differences between them are acknowledged.

Where the Advisory Board recommended narrowing the focus of dependence indicators, it recommended an expansive view toward predictors and risk factors. The range of possible predictors is extremely wide, and until they are measured and analyzed over time as the PRWORA changes are implemented, their value will not be known. Some of the “predictors” included in this chapter may turn out to be simply correlates of welfare receipt, some may have a causal relationship, some may be consequences, and some may have predictive value.

For purposes of this report, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter are grouped into three categories:

ECON. The first group includes measures associated with economic security. This group encompasses measures of poverty, child support receipt, food insecurity, health care coverage, household mobility, and adult incarceration. The poverty-related measures in this group include overall and child poverty rates, transitions in and out of poverty, lengths of poverty spells, events associated with entries and exits from poverty, intergenerational poverty, pre- and post-cash transfers poverty rates, and high-poverty neighborhoods. For ease of presentation, the tables and figures illustrating measures of economic security are labeled with the prefix ECON throughout this chapter.

WORK. The second grouping (labeled with the WORK prefix) includes factors related to employment and barriers to employment. Data on labor force attachment and earnings for low-skilled workers are included, as are data on barriers to work. The latter category includes incidence of adult disabilities and children with chronic health conditions, adult substance abuse, levels of educational attainment and school drop-out rates, and child care costs.

TEEN. The final group addresses behavioral issues primarily affecting teenagers. This category includes out-of-wedlock childbearing data, onset of sexual activity, teen substance abuse and arrest data, and information on teens who are neither in school nor working. The tables and figures in this subsection are labeled with the TEEN prefix.

As noted above, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter do not represent an exhaustive list of measures. They are, in fact, a sampling of available data that address in some way the question of how a family is faring on the deprivation/well-being scale. Such questions are a necessary part of the dependence discussion during this time of major change in the welfare rules. It is important to examine whether decreases in dependence measures are accompanied by improvements in family well-being (as, for example, if work activities increase) or by reductions in family’s material circumstance (which could happen as families lose access to benefits because of time limits or sanctions).

Economic Security Risk Factor 1. Poverty Rates

Poverty rates illustrate the economic condition of families and, as such, a key risk factor of dependence.

Figure ECON 1a. Percentage in Poverty by Age

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

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• The percentage of people living in poverty fell from 13.7 percent to 13.3 percent between 1996 and 1997. This decline continues the trend since 1993, when poverty rates were at a ten-year high of 15.1 percent.
• Children, particularly young children, have much higher poverty rates than the overall population. The poverty rate for related children under 6 reached 25.7 percent in 1992. Since then it has declined, falling to 21.6 percent in 1997.
• Table Econ 1a shows that the poverty rate for blacks declined from 28.4 percent in 1996 to 26.5 percent in 1997. It still remains higher than the 11.0 percent rate for whites. The poverty rate for Hispanics also dropped between 1996 and 1997 from 29.4 percent to 27.1 percent.

Table ECON 1a. Number and Percentage of Persons in Poverty by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, Selected Years

	Related Children		All Persons
Year	Under 6	6-17	Total	Under 181	18 to 64	65 & over	White	Black	Hispanic Origin2
1 Persons under 18 include both related children (own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by blood, marriage, or adoption) and unrelated individuals under 18 who are not living with any relatives. 2 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.
1959	NA	NA	22.4	27.3	17.0	35.2	18.1	55.1	NA
1963	NA	NA	19.5	23.1	NA	NA	15.3	NA	NA
1966	NA	NA	14.7	17.6	10.5	28.5	11.3	41.8	NA
1969	15.3	13.1	12.1	14.0	8.7	25.3	9.5	32.2	NA
1973	15.7	13.6	11.1	14.4	8.3	16.3	8.4	31.4	21.9
1976	17.7	15.1	11.8	16.0	9.0	15.0	9.1	31.1	24.7
1979	17.9	15.1	11.7	16.4	8.9	15.2	9.0	31.0	21.8
1980	20.3	16.8	13.0	18.3	10.1	15.7	10.2	32.5	25.7
1981	22.0	18.4	14.0	20.0	11.1	15.3	11.1	34.2	26.5
1982	23.3	20.4	15.0	21.9	12.0	14.6	12.0	35.6	29.9
1983	24.6	20.4	15.2	22.3	12.4	13.8	12.1	35.7	28.0
1984	23.4	19.7	14.4	21.5	11.7	12.4	11.5	33.8	28.4
1985	22.6	18.8	14.0	20.7	11.3	12.6	11.4	31.3	29.0
1986	21.6	18.8	13.6	20.5	10.8	12.4	11.0	31.1	27.3
1987	22.3	18.9	13.4	20.3	10.6	12.5	10.4	32.4	28.0
1988	21.8	17.5	13.0	19.5	10.5	12.0	10.1	31.3	26.7
1989	21.9	17.4	12.8	19.6	10.2	11.4	10.0	30.7	26.2
1990	23.0	18.2	13.5	20.6	10.7	12.2	10.7	31.9	28.1
1991	24.0	19.5	14.2	21.8	11.4	12.4	11.3	32.7	28.7
1992	25.7	19.4	14.8	22.3	11.9	12.9	11.9	33.4	29.6
1993	25.6	20.0	15.1	22.7	12.4	12.2	12.2	33.1	30.6
1994	24.5	19.5	14.5	21.8	11.9	11.7	11.7	30.6	30.7
1995	23.7	18.3	13.8	20.8	11.4	10.5	11.2	29.3	30.3
1996	22.7	18.4	13.7	20.5	11.4	10.8	11.2	28.4	29.4
1997	21.6	18.0	13.3	19.9	10.9	10.5	11.0	26.5	27.1

• The percentage of people living in poverty increased 2.3 percentage points to a level of 15.1 percent between 1989 and 1992 and has since declined to 13.3 percent as the economy has recovered from the recession.

Figure ECON 1b. Percentage of Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

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• Since 1975, the percentage of the population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty threshold has risen and fallen in a pattern that reflects to some degree the trend in the overall poverty rate. For example, the percentage of people below 50 percent of poverty rose from a low of 3.3 percent in 1976 to a high of 5.9 percent in 1983 and then after falling slightly, rose to a second peak of 6.2 percent in 1993. The overall poverty rate – the percentage of people below 100 percent of poverty – also peaked in 1983 and 1993 in a somewhat similar pattern, although with more pronounced peaks and valleys.
• Over the past two decades, however, there has been an overall increase in the proportion of the poverty population that falls below 50 percent of the poverty level. Whereas the population below 50 percent of the poverty threshold was 30 percent of the poverty population in 1975, it rose to 39 percent of the total poverty population by 1983, and to 41 percent by 1997.
• Between 1995 and 1997, the percentage of the total population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty level increased slightly, from 5.3 percent to 5.4 percent, in contrast to the decline in the overall poverty level, from 13.8 percent to 13.3 percent.

Table ECON 1b. Number and Percentage of People Below 50, 75, 100, and 125 Percent of Poverty Level, 1975 – 1997

(in Thousands)

		Below 50 percent		Below 75 percent		Below 100 percent		Below 125 percent
Year	Total Population	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.
1975	210,900	7,700	3.7	15,400	7.3	25,900	12.3	37,100	17.6
1976	212,300	7,000	3.3	14,900	7.0	25,000	11.8	35,500	16.7
1977	213,900	7,500	3.5	15,000	7.0	24,700	11.6	35,700	16.7
1978	215,700	7,700	3.6	14,900	6.9	24,500	11.4	34,100	15.8
1979	222,900	8,600	3.8	16,300	7.3	26,100	11.7	36,600	16.4
1980	225,000	9,800	4.4	18,700	8.3	29,300	13.0	40,700	18.1
1981	227,200	11,200	4.9	20,700	9.1	31,800	14.0	43,800	19.3
1982	229,400	12,800	5.6	23,200	10.1	34,400	15.0	46,600	20.3
1983	231,700	13,600	5.9	23,600	10.2	35,300	15.2	47,000	20.3
1984	233,800	12,800	5.5	22,700	9.7	33,700	14.4	45,400	19.4
1985	236,600	12,400	5.2	22,200	9.4	33,100	13.6	44,200	18.7
1986	238,600	12,700	5.3	22,400	9.4	32,400	14.0	44,600	18.7
1987	241,000	12,500	5.2	21,700	9.0	32,200	13.4	43,100	17.9
1988	243,500	12,700	5.2	21,400	8.8	31,700	13.0	42,600	17.5
1989	246,000	12,000	4.9	20,700	8.4	31,500	12.8	42,600	17.3
1990	248,600	12,900	5.2	22,600	9.1	33,600	13.5	44,800	18.0
1991	251,200	14,100	5.6	24,400	9.7	35,700	14.2	47,500	18.9
1992	256,500	15,500	6.1	26,200	10.2	38,000	14.8	50,500	19.7
1993	259,300	16,000	6.2	27,200	10.5	39,300	15.1	51,900	20.0
1994	261,600	15,400	5.9	26,400	10.1	38,100	14.5	50,500	19.3
1995	263,700	13,900	5.3	24,500	9.3	36,400	13.8	48,800	18.5
1996	266,200	14,400	5.4	24,800	9.3	36,500	13.7	49,300	18.5
1997	268,500	14,600	5.4	24,200	9.0	35,600	13.3	47,800	17.8

• In 1997, there were 35.6 million people with family income below 100 percent of the poverty threshold, as shown in Table ECON 1b. This included 14.6 million people with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty threshold.

Economic Security Risk Factor 2. Poverty Transition Rates

Data on poverty transitions show the extent of new entries into and exits from poverty.

Figure ECON 2a. Percentage of Poor Individuals Moving out of Poverty from 1993 to 1994

Figure ECON 2b. Percentage of Non-Poor Individuals Moving into Poverty from 1993 to 1994

Source: Table ECON 2.

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• As shown in Figure ECON 2a, nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of all individuals who were poor in 1993 moved out of poverty in 1994. The percentage of poor non-Hispanic whites who exited poverty in 1994 (29 percent) was larger than the corresponding percentages for non-Hispanic blacks (17 percent) and Hispanics (24 percent).
• Only 3 percent of all individuals who were above the poverty line in 1993 became poor in 1994, as shown in Figure ECON 2b. A larger percentage of Hispanic individuals who were not poor in 1993 entered poverty in 1994 (7 percent) compared to both non-Hispanic Blacks (5 percent) and non-Hispanic whites (3 percent).
• As shown in Table ECON 2, 33 percent of men age 16 to 64 who were poor in 1993 moved out of poverty in 1994, compared to only 27 percent of women age 16 to 64. Poor adults age 65 or older were even less likely to exit poverty than poor adults age 16 to 64: only 15 percent of the elderly poor population in 1993 exited poverty in 1994.

Table ECON 2. Percentage of Individuals Changing Poverty Status, 1993-1994
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
	From Poor to Non-Poor
All Poor Persons	23.8
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	29.4
Non-Hispanic Black	17.1
Hispanic	23.6
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	19.9
Children Age 6 - 10	19.2
Children Age 11 - 15	19.3
Women Age 16 - 64	26.5
Men Age 16 - 64	32.7
Adults Age 65 and over	14.9
	From Non-Poor to Poor
All Non-Poor Persons	3.2
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	2.5
Non-Hispanic Black	5.4
Hispanic	7.4
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	5.0
Children Age 6 - 10	4.9
Children Age 11 - 15	3.4
Women Age 16 - 64	3.5
Men Age 16 - 64	2.6
Adults Age 65 and over	2.0

Economic Security Risk Factor 3. Poverty Spells

The length of a poverty episode illustrates one aspect of the risk of dependence.

Figure ECON 3. Length of Spells of Poverty for Persons Who Became Poor during the 1993 SIPP Panel

Source: Table ECON 3.

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• Nearly half (47 percent) of all poverty spells ended within 4 months and three-quarters of all poverty spells ended within one year. Only 16 percent of all poverty spells were 20 months or longer.
• As shown in Table ECON 3, a larger percentage of poverty spells among non-Hispanic blacks were 20 months or longer (23 percent) than was the case for spells among non-Hispanic whites (14 percent) and among Hispanics (15 percent).
• Spells of poverty among adults age 65 and older tend to last longer than poverty spells among adults age 16 to 64 and spells among children age 0 to 15. As shown in Table ECON 3, only 65 percent of poverty spells among adults age 65 and older ended within one year compared to 80 percent for women age 16 to 64, 75 percent for men age 16 to 64, and 73 percent for children age 0 to 15.

Table ECON 3. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty during the 1993 SIPP Panel by Length of Spell

	Percent of Spells
	Spells <4 months	Spells <12 months	Spells <20 months	Spells 20+ months
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
All persons	47.3	75.4	84.3	15.7
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	47.3	78.8	86.3	13.7
Non-Hispanic Black	39.9	64.1	76.7	23.3
Hispanic origin	42.5	74.4	84.7	15.3
Age Categories
Children Age 0 to 15	43.8	73.0	82.2	17.8
Women Age 16 - 64	47.6	79.9	88.9	11.1
Men Age 16 - 64	51.6	75.2	84.2	15.8
65 years and over	40.7	65.4	73.0	27.0

Economic Security Risk Factor 4. Long-term Poverty

As with welfare, poverty experiences often occur in a number of discrete episodes. Measures that illustrate the total length of poverty episodes reveal an important aspect of the severity of the risk of dependence.

Figure ECON 4. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1982 Living in Poverty by Cumulative Number of Years in Poverty

Source: Table ECON 4.

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• Among children who were age 0 to 5 in 1982, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) never lived in poverty for any year over the next ten years, as shown in Figure ECON 4. The percentage of children who remained above the poverty line in all years between 1972 and 1981 is similar although somewhat larger (76 percent), as shown in Table ECON 4.
• During the 1982 to 1991 period, 28 percent of black children experienced longer-term poverty of 6 to 10 years, a percentage much higher than that for non-black children during the same ten-year time period (3 percent).
• For both time periods, the percentages of all individuals who were poor for only one to two years are much larger than the percentages of all individuals who experienced longer-term poverty, as shown in Table ECON 4. For example, while 11 percent of all individuals were poor for only one to two years between 1982 and 1991, only 3 percent were poor for 6 to 8 years and only 2 percent were poor for 9 to 10 years during the same time period.
• As shown in Table ECON 4, a somewhat larger percentage of children compared to the percentage of total persons experienced long-term poverty in both time periods, especially long-term poverty of 9 to 10 years.

Table ECON 4. Percentage of Individuals Living in Poverty by Number of Years in Poverty
Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1972 - 1991.
	All Persons: 1982 – 1991
Cumulative Years in Poverty	All Persons	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	78.8	50.6	82.9
1 - 2 Years	11.3	14.9	10.7
3 - 5 Years	5.3	14.4	4.0
6 - 8 Years	2.8	11.2	2.0
9 - 10 Years	1.8	8.9	0.7
	100	100	100
	Children 0 - 5 in 1982: 1982-1991
Cumulative Years in Poverty	All Children	Black Children	Non-Black Children
0 Years	73.3	40.9	79.2
1 - 2 Years	12.3	16.5	11.6
3 - 5 Years	7.5	14.8	6.1
6 - 8 Years	3.2	11.1	1.7
9 - 10 Years	3.8	16.8	1.4
	100	100	100
	All Persons: 1972 - 1981
Cumulative Years in Poverty	All Persons	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	79.2	45.6	83.7
1 - 2 Years	12.3	20	11.3
3 - 5 Years	4.6	16.6	3.1
6 - 8 Years	2.5	10.4	1.5
9 – 10 Years	1.2	7.5	0.4
	100	100	100
	Children 0 - 5 in 1972: 1972-1981
Cumulative Years in Poverty	All Children	Black Children	Non-Black Children
0 Years	75.6	34.1	82.3
1 - 2 Years	13.1	21.7	11.7
3 - 5 Years	5.6	20.5	3.2
6 - 8 Years	3.2	11.1	1.9
9 – 10 Years	2.5	12.8	0.9
	100	100	100

Economic Security Risk Factor 5. Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of a Poverty Spell

Events that trigger the beginning or ending of a poverty episode indicate an increased or decreased likelihood of future dependence.

Table ECON 5a. Percentage of First Poverty Spell Beginnings Associated with Specific Events

	Spell Began 1973 – 1979	Spell Began 1980 - 1985	Spell Began 1986 - 1991
Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.
First birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother	4.2	5.8	7.3
First birth to other circumstances	2.3	4.5	2.3
Second (or higher order) birth	9.2	10.2	17.9
Divorce/separation	10.9	16.2	14.6
Mother's work hours decreased by more than 500 hours per year	12.5	21.4	28.6
Other adults' work hours decreased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure	29.0	27.6	27.7
Other adults' work hours decreased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure	24.6	22.9	16.3
Householder acquired work limitation	13.9	17.2	23.7
Other transfer income dropped by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	5.9	3.5	2.9
Changed state of residence	7.5	10.0	8.0

• During the 1986 to 1991 time period, first poverty spell beginnings were most often associated with a second or higher order birth (18 percent), a decrease in mothers’ work hours (29 percent), a decrease in other’s work hours (28 percent and 16 percent), or a work limitation (24 percent).
• The percentages of first poverty spell beginnings associated with decreases in mothers’ work hours increased dramatically over the three time periods, from 13 percent in the earliest period to 29 percent in the most recent period.
• The percentages of first poverty episodes associated with the householder acquiring a work limitation increased over time to nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of all first poverty spells beginning between 1986 and 1991.

Table ECON 5b. Percentage of First Poverty Spell Endings Associated with Specific Events

	Spell Ended 1973 – 1979	Spell Ended 1980 - 1985	Spell Ended 1986 - 1991
Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.
Mother married or acquired cohabitor	14.2	14.0	11.5
Children under 18 no longer present	2.0	1.3	4.3
Mother's work hours increased by more than 500 hours	19.8	22.5	21.1
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure	23.7	29.5	22.5
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure	12.1	8.5	8.1
Householder no longer reports work limitation	14.3	19.1	20.1
Other transfer income increased by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	4.2	5.3	3.8
Changed state of residence	8.9	14.0	9.5

• Between 1986 and 1991, most first poverty spell exits were associated with increased work hours of mothers (21 percent), increased work hours for other adults (23 percent) or a change in work limitations (20 percent).
• The percentage of first poverty spell endings associated with marriage or cohabitation decreased somewhat in the 1986 to 1991 time period relative to the earlier time periods (from 14 to 12 percent).
• The percentages of first poverty spell endings associated with increases in transfer income remained relatively stable over the three time periods (around 4 to 5 percent).
• The percentages of spell endings associated with a householder no longer reporting a work limitation increased between the first two time periods and remained stable between the last two time periods.

Economic Security Risk Factor 6. Intergenerational Poverty

The extent to which parental poverty is associated with poverty of their children as adults illustrates a significant risk to current and future dependence.

Figure ECON 6. Poverty Status in 1990 of Persons under 18 and Poor in 1970

Source: Table ECON 6.

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• Among children who were age 0 to 18 and lived in poor families in 1970, 17 percent of white children and 38 percent of black children also lived in poverty as adults in 1990. In other words, poor black children were more than twice as likely as poor white children to be poor as adults.
• Similar percentages of white and black children who were age 0 to 18 and poor in 1970 were “near-poor” (above 100 percent but less than 200 percent of the poverty level) as adults in 1990 (30 percent for whites and 28 percent for blacks). In contrast, white children were much more likely to be living above 200 percent of the poverty level as adults in 1990 (53 percent) than were black children (34 percent).

Table ECON 6. Poverty Status in 1990 of Persons Who Were under 18 and Poor in 1970

	Income under 100% of Poverty	Income between 100% and 200% of Poverty	Income at or above 200% of Poverty
Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1970 and 1990.
White	16.6	30.4	53.2
Black	37.8	28.1	34.2

Economic Security Risk Factor 7. Pre-transfer and Posttransfer Poverty Rates

Trends in the pre- and post-transfer rates of poverty which show the anti-poverty effectiveness of social security and of the major means-tested assistance program benefits.

Figure ECON 7. Poverty Rate of All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18 Using Alternative Definitions of Income, 1979-1996

Note: The pre-transfer rate measures poverty in terms of cash income (only) before all transfers. The official rate measures it in terms of cash income plus social security and means-tested cash transfers. The post-transfer rate measures poverty after adding not only social security and means-tested cash transfers but also the market value of food and housing benefits plus taxes (including the refundable EITC as well as Federal payroll and income taxes); it does not include the fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid.

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.

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• In all years reported, the pre-transfer poverty rate for families with related children under age18 was much higher than both the official poverty rate and the post-transfer poverty rate.
• Table ECON 7 shows that the total effect of transfers and taxes was to reduce the poverty rate by 6.1 percentage points in 1972, 4.2 percentage points in 1983, and 6.7 percentage points in 1996.

Table ECON 7. Antipoverty Effectiveness of Cash and Near-Cash Transfers for All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18, Selected Fiscal Years

	1979	1983	1989	1993	1995	1996
Note: EITC denotes Earned Income Tax Credit. The pre-transfer rate measures poverty in terms of cash income (only) before all transfers. The official rate measures it in terms of cash income plus social security and means-tested cash transfers. The post-transfer rate measures poverty after adding not only social security and means-tested cash transfers but also the market value of food and housing benefits plus taxes (including the refundable EITC as well as Federal payroll and income taxes); it does not include the fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid. Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.
Total Population (in millions)	133.4	132.1	135.4	144.6	146.2	146.8
Pre-Transfer Poor Population (in millions)	22.1	28.9	25.2	32.2	29.2	28.7
Percent of Poor Persons Removed from Poverty Due to:
Social Insurance (other than Social Security)	4.4	6.9	3.4	4.2	3.5	2.7
Social Security	9.1	5.9	6.5	6.3	6.1	6.3
Means-Tested Cash	8.2	3.5	5.1	5.8	6.6	6.3
Food and Housing Benefits	16.5	8.7	11.7	10.2	12.5	11.2
EITC and Fed. Payroll and Income Taxes	-1.7	-5.8	-2.8	2.3	6.6	7.6
Total Percent of Pre-Transfer Poor Removed from Poverty by All Transfers	36.6	19.1	23.9	28.9	35.2	34.1
Poverty Rate (in percent):
Cash Income Before Transfers (pre-transfer)	16.6	21.9	18.6	22.3	20.0	19.6
Plus Social Ins. (other than Social Security)	15.8	20.4	18.0	21.4	19.3	19.1
Plus Social Security	14.3	19.1	16.8	20.0	18.1	17.8
Plus Means-Tested Cash Transfers (official poverty rate)	12.9	18.4	15.8	18.7	16.8	16.6
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	10.2	16.5	13.6	16.4	14.3	14.4
Plus EITC, less Fed. Payroll & Income Taxes (post-trans.)	10.5	17.7	14.1	15.9	13.0	12.9
Total Reduction in Poverty Rate	6.1	4.2	4.5	6.4	7.0	6.7

• Table ECON 7 shows that a substantial percentage of the poor population was removed from poverty by transfers in all years shown. The percentage of poor persons removed from poverty due to transfers was 37 percent in 1979, declining to 19 percent in 1983, and rising to 34 percent in 1996.
• Table ECON 7 shows that the percentage of the poor population removed from poverty due to food and housing benefits is much larger in all reported years than the percentage removed due to other transfers. In 1996, more than 11 percent of the poor population was removed from poverty due to food and housing benefits.
• Table ECON 7 also shows that whereas tax policies, including the EITC and Federal payroll and income taxes, did not remove any poor individuals from poverty in 1979, 1983, and 1989, the trend reversed in 1993. By 1996, EITC net of Federal payroll and income taxes removed about 8 percent of the poor population from poverty

Economic Security Risk Factor 8. Child SUPPORT

Child support provides critical income to families with children and reduces the likelihood of dependence. These child support risk factors reflect the presence and magnitude of child support payments made by noncustodial parents for families receiving services from the Child Support Enforcement Program.

Figure ECON 8a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections, 1978 – 1997

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

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• Total collections paid through the Child Support Enforcement system (Title IV-D of the Social Security Act) grew at an annual rate of growth of 14.4 percent (current dollars) from FY 1978 to FY 1997. The average rate of growth was higher for collections on behalf of non-AFDC families (16.5 percent) than for collections on behalf of AFDC families (9.9 percent). This rate of growth is attributable to both increases in the number of noncustodial parents paying child support and increases in the amount of child support paid per case.

Table ECON 8a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections, 1978 to 1997

	Total Collections (In millions)
	Total		AFDC Collections
Fiscal Year	Current Dollars	Constant '97 Dollars	Total	Payments to AFDC Families	Federal & State Share of Collections	Non-AFDC Collections	Total IV-D Administrative Expenditures
Note: Not all states report current child support collections in all years. Constant dollar adjustments to 1997 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.
1978	$1,047	$2,527	$472	$13	$459	$575	$312
1979	1,333	2,954	597	12	584	736	383
1980	1,478	2,937	603	10	593	874	466
1981	1,629	2,948	671	12	659	958	526
1982	1,771	2,992	786	15	771	985	612
1983	2,024	3,284	880	15	865	1,144	691
1984	2,378	3,696	1,000	17	983	1,378	723
1985	2,694	4,038	1,090	189	901	1,604	814
1986	3,249	4,750	1,225	275	955	2,019	941
1987	3,917	5,569	1,349	278	1,070	2,569	1,066
1988	4,605	6,290	1,486	289	1,188	3,128	1,171
1989	5,241	6,831	1,593	307	1,286	3,648	1,363
1990	6,010	7,462	1,750	334	1,416	4,260	1,606
1991	6,886	8,138	1,984	381	1,603	4,902	1,804
1992	7,964	9,136	2,259	435	1,824	5,705	1,995
1993	8,907	9,919	2,416	446	1,971	6,491	2,241
1994	9,850	10,686	2,550	457	2,093	7,300	2,556
1995	10,827	11,428	2,689	474	2,215	8,138	3,012
1996	12,020	12,344	2,855	480	2,375	9,165	3,055
1997	13,380	13,380	2,856	157	2,698	10,524	3,424

• From FY 1984 through FY 1996, the first $50 dollars of each month’s child support collection was passed-through to families that were receiving AFDC benefits. The “Collections Paid to Families” shown in Table ECON 8a reflects this $50 pass-through and other benefit adjustments. In FY 1997, states were no longer required to continue the $50 pass-through, and so collections paid to families dropped from $480 million in FY 1996 to $157 million in FY 1997.

Figure ECON 8b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Noncustodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment in Nominal and Constant 1997 Dollars, 1986 to 1997

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998, and Twentieth Annual Report to Congress, for the period ending September 30, 1995 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

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• Figure ECON 8b represents the average annual payment of current support by noncustodial parents for families receiving services through the child support enforcement system. Payments on behalf of families not receiving AFDC were about twice as large as those payments for families receiving AFDC. (Note that many families not on AFDC may have received AFDC sometime in the past.)
• As shown in Table ECON 8b, annual payments in current dollars on behalf of AFDC and non-AFDC families have increased by more than 40 percent between FY 1986 and FY 1997. However, when converted to constant dollars, per capita payments have not quite kept pace with inflation.
• In FY 1996, collections were received from about 60 percent of the cases with orders and those collections represented about 52 percent of the current child support due (Table ECON 8b2). About 32 percent of the current support due on behalf of AFDC families is collected, compared to 60 percent collected on behalf of families not receiving AFDC.

Table ECON 8b1. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Noncustodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment in Nominal and Constant Dollars, 1986 – 1997

	AFDC/TANF		Non-AFDC/TANF		Totals
	Current Dollars	Constant ’97 Dollars	Current Dollars	Constant ’97 Dollars	Current Dollars	Constant ’97 Dollars	FY CPI-U
1986-97
– change	$402	-$27	$379	-$515	$685	$23	50.5
– percent	41.9%	-1.9%	19.6%	-18.2%	47.8%	1.1%	46.2%
Note: Data for 1997 are preliminary and does not include information from Florida, Hawaii, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998, and Twenty-first Annual Report to Congress, for the period ending September 30, 1996 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.
1986	$959	$1,402	$1,936	$2,830	$1,433	$2,095	109.3
1987	910	1,294	1,851	2,632	1,416	2,013	112.4
1988	975	1,332	1,793	2,449	1,468	2,005	117.0
1989	1,046	1,363	1,770	2,307	1,457	1,899	122.6
1990	1,110	1,378	1,998	2,481	1,672	2,076	128.7
1991	1,049	1,240	1,989	2,351	1,711	2,022	135.2
1992	1,210	1,388	2,314	2,655	1,919	2,201	139.3
1993	1,230	1,370	2,498	2,782	1,990	2,216	143.5
1994	1,178	1,278	2,266	2,458	1,889	2,049	147.3
1995	1,294	1,366	2,595	2,739	2,167	2,287	151.4
1996	1,280	1,315	2,591	2,661	2,152	2,210	155.6
1997	1,361	1,361	2,315	2,315	2,118	2,118	159.8

Table ECON 8b2. Proportion of IV-D Cases with Orders and Collections and Proportion of Amount Paid to Amount Due, FY 1996 (In millions)

	AFDC Cases	Non-AFDC Cases	Total Cases
Note: FY 1997 data are not available. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1996 Data Report, Washington, DC, 1997 and unpublished data.
Number of Cases with Orders (Current Support)	2.44	4.13	6.57
Number of Cases with Collections (Current Support)	1.20	2.76	3.96
Percent of Cases with Collection (Current Support)	49%	67%	60%
Amount of Current Support Due	$4,795	$11,971	$16,766
Amount of Current Support Paid	$1,535	$ 7,150	$ 8,684
Percent Paid	32%	60%	52%

Figure ECON 8c. Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Child Support by Marital Status and Receipt of Income Assistance, 1977 – 1996

Source: Elaine Sorensen, the Urban Institute, unpublished data from the March Current Population Survey Public Use Files, 1978 – 1997.

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• Single mothers enrolled in the AFDC program are less likely than other single mothers to receive child support, even after controlling for marital status. Since the authorization of the Child Support Enforcement program in the mid-1970s, the proportion of single AFDC mothers receiving child support has generally increased, resulting in a narrowing of the gap between AFDC and non-AFDC mothers. Between 1995 and 1996, however, the proportion of AFDC recipients receiving child support declined, following drops in the AFDC caseload and shifts in its composition.

Table ECON 8c. Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Child Support and Alimony by Marital Status and Receipt of Income Assistance, 1977 – 1996

	Divorced		Separated		Never Married
	AFDC	Non-AFDC	AFDC	Non-AFDC	AFDC	Non-AFDC
1977-96 Change	14.5	-4.0	13.2	-0.6	13.2	14.8
Note: Married women also receive child support, but the proportion of eligible married women cannot be identified on the March CPS file. Child support and alimony were not collected as separate items prior to 1988. They are left combined for all years to ensure comparability across years. Source: Elaine Sorensen, the Urban Institute, unpublished data from the March Current Population Survey Public Use Files, 1978 - 1997.
1977	13.2	57.5	7.1	34.2	2.6	3.7
1978	14.0	56.1	7.2	32.4	5.4	9.9
1979	12.2	55.2	9.3	34.3	4.6	9.9
1980	13.0	53.3	7.4	28.4	1.8	9.2
1981	13.9	56.9	10.4	33.2	3.3	5.6
1982	10.8	52.0	8.0	30.3	4.0	9.7
1983	13.8	49.5	9.1	32.3	3.9	8.2
1984	15.6	53.3	6.2	28.6	4.2	10.9
1985	18.3	54.1	10.3	28.2	9.0	11.2
1986	29.4	55.0	16.7	32.5	9.0	12.2
1987	30.6	52.2	14.8	31.1	11.3	9.6
1988	26.5	50.3	14.4	30.3	10.3	11.3
1989	32.9	52.4	17.3	30.0	13.5	11.1
1990	25.0	53.7	16.6	30.3	14.0	12.4
1991	27.9	54.5	15.0	27.1	12.7	13.1
1992	30.6	54.6	17.2	30.4	14.8	15.5
1993	33.1	53.7	23.0	28.1	13.4	18.1
1994	33.6	52.1	24.2	32.1	14.4	18.9
1995	35.0	51.3	26.3	32.6	16.6	18.9
1996	27.7	53.5	20.3	33.6	15.8	18.5

• Figure ECON 8c also shows that divorced and separated women are more likely to receive child support than are never-married women.
• The proportion of never-married women receiving child support is similar for the AFDC and non-AFDC populations. The upward trend lines for both groups reflect the paternity establishment activities of the Child Support Enforcement Program, as very few paternities are established outside of the CSE system.
• The proportion of divorced and separated women receiving child support but not AFDC payments has remained relatively constant.

Figure ECON 8d. Estimated Children Under 18 Born Outside of Marriage With Paternity Established, 1978 – 1997

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States, annual and Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 46, No. 1, Supplement 2, September 11, 1997 and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

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• The cumulative number of children needing paternity to be established has risen steadily over the last two decades due to growing numbers of children being born outside of marriage. The cumulative total of children born outside of marriage as of 1997 was about 17.5 million as shown in Figure ECON 8d. While the number and percentage of paternity establishments has increased, 45 percent of these children still did not have a legally identified father.

Table ECON 8d. Estimated Children under 18 Born Outside of Marriage with Paternity Established

(In thousands)

	1978	1980	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1997
1 Non-marital births in 1997 are estimated based on the 12 months ending June 1997 as compared to the preceding 12 months. Note: Total children under 18 years of age who were born outside of marriage is the cumulative total of nonmarital births less deaths; paternities established is the cumulative total of voluntary and C.S.E. paternity establishment as well as estimated births legitimated by marriage and adoption. An unknown number of children born outside of marriage are living with step-fathers who may have assumed paternal responsibility without legal adoption. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States, annual and Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 46, No. 1, Supplement 2, September 11, 1997 and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.
Children Under 18 Born Outside of Marriage (est.)	6,212	6,932	7,781	8,674	9,680	10,816	12,175	13,743	15,326	16,816	17,501
Paternity Not Established	3,460	3,869	4,371	4,877	5,487	6,093	6,786	7,638	8,306	8,268	7,910
Paternity Established	2,752	3,063	3,410	3,797	4,193	4,722	5,389	6,105	7,020	8,548	9,591
Percent of Children	44.3	44.2	43.8	43.8	43.3	43.7	44.3	44.4	45.8	50.8	54.8
Paternities Established for Nonmarital Births in a Year:
Nonmarital Births1	544	666	715	770	878	1,005	1,165	1,225	1,290	1,260	1,267
Paternities Established	111	144	173	219	245	307	393	512	676	1,043	1,282
Percent of Births	20.4	21.6	24.2	28.4	27.9	30.5	33.7	41.8	52.5	82.7	101.2

• As shown in Table ECON 8d, the number of paternities established each year as a percent of the number of children born outside of marriage each year has increased from 20 percent in 1978 to over 100 percent in 1997. This increasing rate of paternity establishment in the 1990s has increased the proportion of children with paternity established from about 44 percent in the period prior to 1994 to nearly 55 percent in 1997.
• The proportion of all children under age 18 with paternities established has increased significantly in the past few years. This increase reflects the additional paternities now being established in the hospitals at the time of the birth of the child.
• Reporting of in-hospital paternity establishments is voluntary and reflects reports from only 39 states, therefore the rate of increase in paternity establishments over the past few years may be underestimated.

Economic Security Risk Factor 9. Food Insecurity

Household food insecurity, including (at a severe level) direct hunger among children in the household, is related to general income poverty and is expected to affect children’s health, cognitive and social development, and general school success.

Figure ECON 9. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, 1995

Source: Table ECON 9. See table for definition of food secure households.

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• A large majority (88 percent) of American households was food secure in the year ending April 1995. Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake.
• About 11.9 million (of approximately 100 million) households experienced food insecurity - not being able to afford enough food - at some level during 1995. Most of the food insecure households were food insecure without hunger, meaning that although food insecurity was evident in their concerns and in adjustments to household food management, including reduced quality of diets, little or no reduction in food intake was reported.
• About 4 percent of the 100 million households were classified as food insecure with hunger. Thus, one or more adult members of some 4.2 million households were estimated to have experienced reduced food intake and hunger as a result of financial constraints in the year ending April 1995.
• About 800,000 households were classified as food insecure with severe hunger, meaning that children, as well as adults, experienced reduced food intake and hunger.

Table ECON 9. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, 1995

	Food Secure	Food Insecure No Hunger	Food Insecure Moderate Hunger	Food Insecure Severe Hunger
Note: Persons of Hispanic ethnicity can be any race. Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure without hunger report food-related concerns and adjustments to household food management but report little or no reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure with moderate hunger report reduced food intake and hunger among adults, while households are defined as food insecure with severe hunger if they report reduced food intake and hunger among children as well as adults. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Household Food Security in the United States in 1995.
All Households	88.1	7.8	3.3	0.8
Households with Children Under 6, by Race
White	82.6	13.1	3.6	0.6
Black	70.1	19.7	8.8	1.4
Hispanic	66.8	23.6	7.9	1.7
Other	79.4	14.1	4.0	2.6
Households with Children Under 18, by Race
White	84.6	11.1	3.6	0.7
Black	71.8	18.1	8.5	1.6
Hispanic	69.6	21.6	7.5	1.3
Other	81.1	12.6	4.7	1.6
Households with Elderly but no Children, by Race
White	95.3	3.2	1.3	0.2
Black	81.7	12.6	4.3	1.4
Hispanic	79.1	15.2	4.0	1.7
Other	87.7	7.8	3.6	0.9
Household Income-to-Poverty Ratio (all races and household types)
Under 0.50	58.4	24.6	12.1	4.9
Under 1.00	64.7	22.1	10.0	3.1
Under 1.30	68.1	20.0	9.3	2.6
Under 1.85	73.8	17.0	7.3	1.9
1.85 and over	95.8	2.8	1.2	0.2
Households with Children under 18 (all races)
Married-Couple Families	88.5	8.8	2.3	0.5
Female Head, No Spouse	64.7	22.9	10.3	2.0
Male Head, No Spouse	81.4	12.0	5.6	1.0

• The prevalence of food insecurity is higher among non-white households than among white households. As shown in Table ECON 9, 10 percent of black and Hispanic households with children under six experience food insecurity with either moderate or severe hunger, compared with 4 percent of white households with children under six.
• Households with an income-to-poverty ratio under 1.00 have a higher rate of food insecurity with moderate or severe hunger – 13 percent – than the 4 percent rate for the total population.
• Female-headed households with children under 18 had a higher prevalence of food insecurity with moderate or severe hunger (12 percent) than male-headed families (7 percent) or married-couple families (3 percent).

Economic Security Risk Factor 10. Health Insurance

A lack of health insurance may be the precursor to future health problems and as such a risk factor of dependence.

Figure ECON 10. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance by Age, 1996

Source: Table ECON 10.

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• Among all age categories, young adults age 18 to 24 were the most likely to be without health insurance in 1996 (29 percent).
• Sixteen percent of the population was without health insurance in 1996 as shown in Table ECON 10.
• Table ECON 10 also shows that among racial groups, a much larger percentage of Hispanics were without health insurance (34 percent) than non-Hispanic whites (12 percent) or non-Hispanic blacks (22 percent).

Table ECON 10. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance by Age, 1996
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, March Current Population Survey, 1997.
All Persons	16
Non-HispanicWhite	12
Non-HispanicBlack	22
Hispanic	34
Other	21
Children 0 - 5	14
Children 6 - 8	14
Children 9 - 11	15
Children 12 - 14	16
Children 15 - 17	17
Total 0 - 17	15
Adults 18 - 24	29
Adults 25 - 34	22
Adults 35 - 44	16
Adults 45 - 54	14
Adults 55 - 64	14
Women Age 18 - 64	14
Men Age 18 - 64	18
Adults Age 65 and over	1

Economic Security Risk Factor 11. Percentage Residing in High-poverty Neighborhoods

High-poverty neighborhoods are often associated with relatively lower quality services (e.g., education, medical) that can have a negative effect on development and increase the risk of dependence.

Figure ECON 11. Percentage of Total Population Residing in High-Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990

Source: Table ECON 11.

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• Black and Hispanic individuals were disproportionately represented in high-poverty neighborhoods in 1990, as shown in Figure ECON 11. Whereas 14 percent of black individuals and 9 percent of Hispanic individuals resided in neighborhoods where over 40 percent of residents were poor, only 1 percent of white individuals lived in such neighborhoods.
• The percentage of black individuals living in high-poverty neighborhoods has increased over time, from 11 percent in 1970 to 14 percent in 1990, as shown in Table ECON 11. This has contributed to an overall increase in the percentage of the population residing in high-poverty neighborhoods, from 2 percent in 1970 to 3 percent in 1990.

Table ECON 11. Percentage of Total Population Residing in High-Poverty Neighborhoods, Selected Years

	1970	1980	1990
Note: Neighborhoods are defined as census tracts and block-numbering areas. A highpoverty area is defined as having 40% or more of the residents' incomes below the official poverty line. Source: Jargowsky, Paul. Poverty and Place: Ghetto, Barrios, and the American City. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1997.
All persons	2.1	2.3	3.2
White	0.6	0.6	0.9
Black	11.2	12.1	14.3
Hispanic	8.2	7.3	9.0

Economic Security Risk Factor 12. Residential Mobility

Frequent changes of residence are disruptive events for children and may increase the risk of dependence.

Figure ECON 12. Percentage of Persons and Families with Children Who Moved in a Given One-Year Period

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Geographical Mobility,” Current Populations Reports, Series P20, Nos. 463,
473, 481, 485, 497 and 510.

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• Single-parent families with children under age 18 were much more likely to move in a year than married-couple families in each of the periods shown above.
• Residential mobility for all persons age 1 year and older remained essentially unchanged, dropping only one percentage point from 17 percent to 16 percent over the period as the economy recovered from the recession in the early 1990s.
• Female-headed families with children were much more likely to move in a year than marriedcouple families with children, in each of the one-year periods shown.
• Residential mobility decreased one percentage point every two years for children age 1 to 14 from 1987 - 1988 to 1993 - 1994.
• Residential mobility for adults age 25 and above remained essentially unchanged, dropping only one percentage point over this period.

Table ECON 12. Number and Percentage of Individuals and Families Who Moved in a Given One-Year Period, Selected Years

	1990-91	1991-92	1992-93	1993-94	1995-96	1996-97
Note: Residential mobility measures the percent of individual over age 1 who changed houses between March of the first year and March of the next year. The mobility of married-couple and female single-parent families is the percent of householders age 15 to 54 with own children under 18 who changed houses. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Geographical Mobility,” Current Populations Reports, Series P20, Nos. 463, 473, 481, 485, 497 and 510.
	Number Moving (in millions)
Total Population 1 year and older	41.5	42.8	42.0	42.8	42.5	42.1
Persons 25 years and over	32.3	33.2	33.0	33.6	32.2	NA
All Families with Children
Age 1-4 years	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.9	3.7
Age 5-9 years	3.3	3.3	3.1	3.3	3.6	3.8
Age 10-14 years	2.5	2.8	2.5	2.5	2.8	2.9
Married Couples with Children
Under 18 years	3.7	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.6	3.5
Under 6 years	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.3
Single Parents with Children
Under 18 years	2.3	2.5	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.6
Under 6 years	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.0	0.9	0.9
	Percent Moving
Total Population 1 year and older	17.0	17.3	16.8	16.7	16.3	16.0
Persons 25 years and over	16.7	17.0	16.7	16.7	15.8	NA
All Families with Children
Age 1-4 years	22.7	23.0	22.2	21.5	24.3	23.0
Age 5-9 years	17.6	18.0	16.5	16.9	17.9	18.7
Age 10-14 years	14.1	15.4	13.4	12.9	14.2	15.0
Married Couples with Children
Under 18 years	15.8	16.3	16.0	15.4	15.0	14.2
Under 6 years	25.1	25.4	25.0	23.9	24.5	21.8
Single Parents with Children
Under 18 years	29.0	30.3	27.3	28.1	26.8	27.7
Under 6 years	46.4	46.7	43.6	43.9	42.8	43.4

Economic Security Risk Factor 13. Adult Incarceration

This risk factor tracks trends in the extent to which adults are living apart from their children because they are incarcerated. An incarcerated parent leaves his orher family at increased risk of dependence.

Figure ECON 13. Estimated Number of Sentenced Male Prisoners Under State or Federal Jurisdiction per 100,000 Resident Population, 1981 to 1996

Source: Table ECON 13.

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• From 1980 to 1996, the number of black men incarcerated per 100,000 population increased 185 percent, while the rate for white men increased 144 percent in the same period.
• Table ECON 13 shows that the rate of incarceration for women, while still very small relative to men, rose 364 percent from 1980 to 1996, with white female incarceration increasing 400 percent and black female incarceration increasing 307 percent.
• Table ECON 13 also shows that the rates for black men and black women were much higher than the rates for white men and white women in 1996.

Table ECON 13. Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners Under State or Federal Jurisdiction per 100,000 Resident Population

	Total Men and Womena	All Mena	White Men	Black Men	All Womena	White Women	Black Women
1980	139	275	188	1111	11	6	45
1981	154	304	186	1217	12	7	50
1982	171	337	206	1345	14	8	57
1983	179	354	217	1412	15	9	58
1984	188	370	228	1459	16	9	63
1985	202	397	246	1559	17	10	68
1986	217	426	261	1895	20	12	77
1987	231	453	277	1800	22	13	82
1988	247	482	290	1951	24	15	91
1989	276	535	317	2200	29	17	115
1990	297	564	338	2234	31	19	117
1991	313	595	352	2368	33	19	129
1992	332	631	373	2499	35	20	136
1993	359	685	402	2718	40	23	155
1994	389	739	432	2923	45	26	169
1995	411	781	449	3095	47	27	176
1996	427	809	458	3162	51	30	183
Notes: Sentenced prisoners are those with a sentence of more than 1 year. Rates are based on U.S. resident population on July 1 of each year. Rates for 1990--1996 may differ from those previously published because the number of prisoners under jurisdiction have been revised and the resident population by sex and race have been adjusted for the Census undercount. a Includes Asians, Pacific Islanders, American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and other racial groups. Sources: Correctional Populations in the United States, 1994, 1995, 1996; U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ-160091, June 1996; NCJ-163916, May 1997; NCJ-170013, November 1998.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 1. Labor Force Attachment

This risk factor focuses exclusively on the participation of an adult in the labor market, without regard to whether means-tested assistance was received concurrently. Measuring labor force attachment reflects a critical aspect of the risk of dependence.

Figure WORK 1. Percentage of All Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

Source: Table WORK 1a.

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• In 1994, most individuals, regardless of race, lived in families with at least one person participating in the labor force on a full-time basis.
• Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than Hispanics or non-Hispanic whites to live in families with no one in the labor force.
• As shown in Table WORK 1a, younger children were slightly more likely than older children to live in families with no one in the labor force.
• Table WORK 1a shows that working-age women were more likely than working-age men to live in families with no one in the labor force, and less likely to live in families with at least one full-time labor force participant.
• The percentage of individuals in families with no one in the labor force increased slightly, from 16 percent in 1987 to 17 percent in 1994, as shown in Table WORK 1b.

Table WORK 1a. Percentage of All Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

	No One in Labor Force	At Least One Person in Labor Force, No Full-Time Participants	At Least One Full-Time Labor Force Participant
Note: Full-time labor force participants are defined as those who usually work 35 or more hours per week. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.
All Persons	16.7	9.1	74.3
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	16.2	8.2	75.6
Non-Hispanic Black	21.7	12.3	66.0
Hispanic	16.6	10.7	72.7
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	12.3	8.9	78.9
Children Age 6 - 10	11.6	9.3	79.1
Children Age 11 - 15	9.6	9.4	81.0
Women Age 16 - 64	19.2	9.4	71.4
Men Age 16 - 64	14.1	8.6	77.3

Table WORK 1b. Percentage of All Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1987 to 1994

	1987	1988	1990	1991	1993	1994
Note: Full-time labor force participants are defined as those who usually work 35 or more hours per week. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, and 1993 panels.
No One in the Labor Force	15.7	15.5	15.8	16.2	16.3	16.7
At Least One Person in Labor Force, no Full-Time Participants	8.3	7.7	7.8	8.6	9.5	9.1
At Least One Full-Time Labor Force Participant	76.0	76.8	76.4	75.2	74.2	74.3

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 2. Employment Among the Low-skilled

This risk factor tracks trends in the percentage of men and women with 12 years of schooling or less who are engaged in paid employment. These trends illustrate a key risk of dependence.

Figure WORK 2. Percent of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with no more than a High School Education who were Employed, 1969 to 1998

Source: Table WORK 2.

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• The percentage of low-skilled men who were employed dropped significantly between 1969 and 1984, with the largest decline among black men. During this time period, the percentage of high school-educated black men who were employed dropped 20 percentage points, from 90 percent to 70 percent; for low-skilled white men, employment rates dropped 8 percentage points over this time period, from 93 percent to 85 percent.
• Since 1984, employment levels for high school-educated white men and Hispanic men have leveled off, hovering close to 85 percent. Employment levels for low-skilled black men have fluctuated over the past fifteen years, rising as high as 76 percent in 1991, and falling as low as 69 percent in 1995.
• In 1998, only 72 percent of black men with no more than a high school education were working compared to 85 percent of similarly educated white and Hispanic men.
• The employment rates for low-skilled women have steadily increased since the early 1970s. Since 1973, employment levels for white and black women have improved by about 20 percentage points. The improvement for Hispanic women, however, has been much less pronounced.

Table WORK 2. Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More Than a High School Education Who Were Employed, 1969 to 1998

	Men			Women
Year	White	Black	Hispanic	White	Black	Hispanic
Note: White and Black includes Hispanic for all years. Hispanic was not available until 1975. Source: ASPE tabulations of March Current Population Surveys.
1969	92.8	89.9	NA	55.8	65.8	NA
1970	92.1	89.2	NA	56.1	64.9	NA
1972	90.9	86.1	NA	55.2	59.4	NA
1973	84.1	76.8	NA	45.6	47.4	NA
1976	88.2	78.8	86.2	58.3	57.2	49.7
1978	88.3	78.6	89.8	59.8	57.4	51.4
1980	88.6	78.5	89.4	62.3	58.7	55.0
1981	88.0	75.3	87.4	62.3	57.4	53.0
1982	87.3	74.4	87.9	62.3	57.7	52.1
1983	85.4	71.3	85.4	60.7	56.2	50.6
1984	84.8	69.9	84.6	61.4	55.3	50.8
1985	86.1	71.6	83.9	62.9	58.4	53.1
1986	85.7	74.5	84.1	63.7	59.4	52.4
1987	86.3	74.2	86.7	64.4	60.3	53.0
1988	86.6	73.9	85.6	65.8	59.9	54.0
1989	86.5	74.1	87.8	66.4	61.3	54.6
1990	86.6	74.0	86.2	67.2	60.9	55.8
1991	87.4	75.6	85.4	66.8	60.4	55.0
1992	86.2	73.9	85.0	66.5	60.7	54.6
1993	85.5	71.4	83.7	65.9	57.8	53.3
1994	84.4	71.1	83.5	66.1	59.9	52.2
1995	84.7	69.3	83.2	66.6	60.7	53.3
1996	85.5	70.2	83.3	67.0	59.7	53.9
1997	85.6	70.0	84.0	67.7	63.6	55.4
1998	85.3	71.8	85.0	67.7	66.1	56.9

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 3. Earnings of Low-skilled Workers

The economic condition of the low-skill labor market is key to the ability of young adult men and women to support families without receiving means-tested assistance. This measure tracks trends in the earnings of low-skilled workers.

Figure WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No More Than a High School Education (1995 Dollars), 1970 to 1994

Source: Table WORK 3.

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• Mean weekly wages for full-time work by high school-educated men have decreased in real terms over the past quarter of a century. In 1970 the mean weekly wage for low-skilled men working full-time was $593 (in 1995 dollars); the comparable wage in 1994 was $523, representing a decrease of 12 percent.
• A large gap exists between mean weekly wages for high school-educated white and black men, although it has been narrowing over time. In 1970, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled black men working full-time was $432 (in 1995 dollars), or 70 percent of the $615 average for white men. In 1994, full-time working black men with no more than a high school education received 82 percent of the weekly wages of white men, or a mean wage of $446, compared to a mean wage for white men of $539. The narrowing of this gap is predominantly a result of the declining value of white men’s mean wages.

Table WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No More Than a High School Education (1995 Dollars), 1970 to 1994

	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1994
Note: Full-time, full-year workers work at least 48 weeks per year and 35 hours per week. These data have been weighted to create an average for all men with no more than a high school diploma using population numbers from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20. The population weights were calculated for 1970, 1980, and 1990 and the Other year weights were calculated using linear extrapolation. Source: Blank, R., It Takes a Nation, 1997.
All Men	$593	$580	$584	$555	$531	$523
White Men	615	597	603	572	545	539
Black Men	432	460	448	440	442	446

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 4. ADULT/CHILD Disability

Health conditions that limit parents’ ability to work are important predictors of family economic problems and future dependence.

Figure WORK 4. Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, 1994

Source: Table WORK 4.

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• In 1994, adults were more likely than school-age children to have a functional disability, and school-age children were in turn more likely to have a functional disability than younger children.
• As shown in Table WORK 4, the percentage of non-Hispanic blacks who reported a functional disability was larger than the percentages for non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics.
• Table WORK 4 also shows that while adults were more likely in 1994 to report a functional disability than children, a higher percentage of children than adults were actually recipients of disability program benefits.

Table WORK 4. Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, 1994
Note: Functional disability only includes those disabilities expected to last at least 12 months. Functional disabilities were defined as either: (1) limitations in or inability to perform a variety of physical activities (i.e. walking, lifting, reaching); (2) serious sensory impairments (i.e. inability to read newsprint even with glasses or contact lenses); (3) serious symptoms of mental illness (i.e. frequent depression or anxiety; frequent confusion, disorientation, or difficulty remembering) which has seriously interfered with life for the last year; (4) use of selected assistive devices (i.e. wheelchairs, scooter, walkers); (5) developmental delays for children identified by a physician (i.e. physical, learning); (6) for children under 5, inability to perform age-appropriate functions (i.e. sitting up, walking); and, (7) long-term care needs. Work disability is defined as limitations in or the inability to work as a result of a physical, mental or emotional health condition. Perceived disability is a new disability measure based on the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and includes individuals who were perceived by themselves or others as having a disability. Disability program recipients include persons covered by Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), Special Education Services, Early Intervention Services, and/or disability pensions. Source: Unpublished data from the 1994 National Health Interview Survey on Disability, Phase I; 1994 NHIS, and 1994 Family Resources Supplement.
Functional Disability
All Persons	18.3
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	8.7
Non-Hispanic Black	11.0
Hispanic	7.7
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	7.2
Children Age 6 - 17	9.5
Adults Age 18 - 64	16.2
Functional, Work, Perceived or Program Disability
Age 0 - 17
Functional Disability	8.7
Work Disability	NA
Perceived Disability	2.8
Disability Program Recipient	6.7
Age 18 - 64
Functional Disability	16.2
Work Disability	10.7
Perceived Disability	7.0
Disability Program Recipient	5.7

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 5. Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse

Adult alcohol and substance abuse is a risk factor for dependence.

Figure WORK 5. Percentage of Adults who used Cocaine, Marijana, or Alcohol, 1997

Source: Table WORK 5.

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• In 1997, young adults (age 18 to 25) were more likely than other adults to report cocaine use, marijuana use, or alcohol abuse in the past month. One-eighth (13 percent) of adults 18 to 25 reported using marijuana in the past month, compared with 6 percent of adults 26 to 34 and 3 percent of adults 35 and older. The age differences were less pronounced for cocaine use and alcohol abuse.
• The percentages of persons reporting binge alcohol use were significantly larger than the percentages for all other reported behaviors, across all age groups and for all years with reports on alcohol use, as shown in Table WORK 5. In 1997, for example, about one-fourth of adults under 35 (28 percent for adults 18 to 25, and 23 percent for adults 26 to 34) reported drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion at least once within the past month.
• As shown in Table WORK 5, marijuana use was more prevalent than heavy alcohol use among adults ages 18 to 25 in the most recent years (1996 and 1997), as had been the case in earlier years (1985 and 1988). In the intervening years, however, heavy alcohol use was more prevalent than marijuana use among this age group. The recent trend is a result of both increasing marijuana use and decreasing heavy alcohol use in the 1990s, a reversal of the prior trend.

Table WORK 5. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine, Marijuana, or Alcohol, 1979 to 1997

	1979	1985	1988	1991	1994	1996	1997
Note: Cocaine and marijuana use is defined as use during the past month. “Binge" Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on at least one day in the past 30 days. "Occasion" means at the same time or within a couple hours of each other. Heavy Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on each of five or more days in the past 30 days; all Heavy Alcohol Users are also "Binge" Alcohol Users. Data for 1997 are preliminary. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse: Preliminary Estimates, 1998.
Cocaine
Age 18 - 25	9.9	8.1	4.8	2.2	1.2	2.0	1.2
Age 26 - 34	3.0	6.3	2.8	1.9	1.3	1.5	0.9
Age 35 and Above	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5
Marijuana
Age 18 - 25	35.6	21.7	15.3	12.9	12.1	13.2	12.8
Age 26 - 34	19.7	19.0	12.3	7.7	6.9	6.3	6.0
Age 35 and Above	2.9	2.6	1.8	2.6	2.3	2.0	2.6
Binge Alcohol Use
Age 18 - 25	NA	34.4	28.2	31.2	33.6	32.0	28.0
Age 26 - 34	NA	27.5	19.7	21.5	24.0	22.8	23.1
Age 35 and Above	NA	12.9	9.7	10.1	11.8	11.3	11.7
Heavy Alcohol Use
Age 18 - 25	NA	13.8	12.0	15.2	13.2	12.9	11.1
Age 26 - 34	NA	11.5	7.1	7.9	8.0	7.1	7.5
Age 35 and Above	NA	5.2	4.0	4.4	4.8	3.8	4.0

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 6. Children's Health Conditions

Health limitations may limit the labor force participation of parents and therefore illustrate a risk of dependence.

Table WORK 6. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to 17, 1984 to 1994

	1984	1987	1990	1992	1993	1994
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1997. Table HC 2.4.
Respiratory Conditions
Chronic Bronchitis	50	62	53	54	59	55
Chronic Sinusitis	47	58	57	69	80	65
Asthma	43	53	58	63	72	69
Chronic Diseases of Tonsils or Adenoids	34	30	23	28	26	23
Impairments
Deformity or Orthopedic Impairment	35	36	29	33	29	28
Speech Impairment	16	19	14	21	20	21
Hearing Impairment	24	16	21	15	17	18
Visual Impairment	9	10	9	10	7	9
Other Conditions
Heart Disease	23	22	19	19	20	18
Anemia	11	8	10	11	9	12
Epilepsy	7	4	4	3	5	5

• Respiratory conditions were the most prevalent chronic health conditions experienced by children ages 0 to 17 throughout the time period, especially asthma. In 1994, 69 children per thousand had asthma, up from 43 children per thousand in 1984. The prevalence of chronic sinusitis also increased, from 47 children per thousand in 1984, to 65 children per thousand by 1994.
• In 1994, 28 children per thousand had a deformity or orthopedic impairment, down from 35 children per thousand in 1984.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 7. Child CARE Expenditures

Proportion of total family income spent on child care in families with employed mothers is an important dimension of the risk of dependency.

Figure WORK 7. Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993

Source: Table WORK 7.

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• Poor families with employed mothers of preschoolers spent a much larger percentage of their monthly family income on child care in 1993 relative to non-poor families with employed mothers (18 percent compared to 7 percent).
• As shown in Table WORK 7, employed single mothers (no husband present) spent a larger percentage of their monthly family income on child care expenses than did employed married mothers.
• Table WORK 7 shows that employed mothers who received assistance from AFDC, WIC or Food Stamps spent a larger percentage of their total monthly family income on child care relative to non-recipients (13 percent compared to 7 percent). Among recipients of these programs, AFDC recipients spent the largest percentage of their monthly family income on child care.

Table WORK 7. Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993

Table WORK 7. Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993
All Families	7.6
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	7.4
Non-Hispanic Black	8.5
Hispanic	9.0
Marital Status
Married, Husband Present	7.0
Widowed, Separated, Divorced	12.3
Never Married	12.5
Poverty Status
Poor	17.7
Non-Poor	7.3
Program Participation
Recipient	12.8
AFDC	17.1
WIC	12.3
Food Stamps	14.6
Non-Recipient	7.3
Note: Non-recipients are those in families not receiving AFDC, general assistance, Food Stamps or WIC. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "What Does It Cost to Mind Our Preschoolers," Current Population Reports, Series P70-52, 1995.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 8. Educational Attainment

Completed schooling is one measure of job-skill level. Individuals with no more than a high school education have the lowest amount of human capital and are at the greatest risk of becoming poor despite their work effort. This risk factor tracks the trend in educational attainment.

Figure WORK 8. Percentage of Adults Ages 25 and Over by Level of Educational Attainment, 1970 to 1997

Source: Table WORK 8.

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• Since 1970 there has been a marked decline in the percentage of the population with less than a high school education, dropping from 45 percent in 1970 to 18 percent in 1997.
• The percentage of the population receiving a high school education but with no subsequent college was 34 percent in 1970, rose somewhat in the 1970s and 1980s, and then fell back to 34 percent by 1997.
• Since 1970 there has been a consistent increase in the percentage of the population with some college (one to three years), rising from 11 to 25 percent.
• The percentage of the population completing four or more years of college more than doubled from 1970 to 1997, rising steadily from 11 to 24 percent.

Table WORK 8. Percentage of Adults Ages 25 and Over by Level of Educational Attainment, 1970 to 1997

	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1997
Note: Completing the GED is not considered completing high school within this table. Beginning with data for 1992, a new question results in different categories than for earlier years. Data shown as 'High School, 4 years' is now collected by the category 'High School Graduate.' Data shown as 'College 1 to 3 years,' is now collected by 'Some College;' and two 'Associate Degree' categories. Data shown as 'College 4 years or more,' is now collected by the categories, 'Bachelor's Degree; Master's Degree;' 'Doctorate Degree;' 'Professional Degree.' Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Educational Attainment in the United States" Current Population Reports, Series P20, Nos. 476 (1994) and 505 (1998).
Less than High School	45	37	31	26	22	22	21	20	18
Finished High School, No College	34	36	37	38	38	39	36	35	34
One to Three Years of College	10	12	15	16	18	18	22	23	25
Four or More Years of College	11	14	17	19	21	21	21	22	24

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 9. High-school Dropout Rates

Although some teens who drop out of high school eventually graduate or obtain GEDS, dropout rates are reliable risk factors associated with teen problem behavior and future economic problems.

Figure WORK 9. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, 1975 to 1996

Source: Table WORK 9.

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• After declining steadily during the 1980s and the 1990s, dropout rates for teens in grades 10 to 12 began rising, from a total dropout rate of 4 percent in 1990 to a rate of 6 percent in 1995. The overall rate dropped back to 5 percent in 1996.
• Dropout rates are highest for Hispanic teens. In 1996, the dropout rate was 9 percent for Hispanic teens, compared to 7 percent for black teens and 4 percent for white teens.

Table WORK 9. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, 1975 to 1996

	1975	1980	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1998. Table EA 1.4.
Total	5.8	6.1	5.2	4.0	4.0	4.4	4.5	5.3	5.7	5.0
White	5.0	5.2	4.3	3.3	3.2	3.7	3.9	4.2	4.5	4.1
Black	8.7	8.2	7.8	5.0	6.0	5.0	5.8	6.6	6.4	6.7
Hispanic	10.9	11.7	9.8	7.9	7.3	8.2	6.7	10.0	12.3	9.0

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 1. Percentage of Births That are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups

This risk factor shows the percentage of all births, within each age group, that are to unmarried women.

Figure TEEN 1. Percentage of Births That Are to Unmarried Women, by Age Group, 1940 to 1997

Source: Table TEEN 1.

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• The percentage of children born outside of marriage to women of all ages has increased over the past half-century, from 4 percent in 1940 to 32 percent in 1997. This increase reflects changes in several factors: the rate at which unmarried women have children, the rate at which married women have children, and the rate at which women marry.
• The percentage of children born outside of marriage is especially high for teen women, as shown in Figure TEEN 1. Among teens, over three-quarters (78 percent) of births were outside of marriage in 1997. The comparable percentage for all women is 32 percent.
• Figure TEEN 1 shows that the percentage of unmarried births to all women has leveled off since 1994. Growth in the percentage of unmarried births to teen mothers has also slowed since 1994, but it is still rising (from 76 percent in 1994 to 78 percent in 1997).
• The trend toward leveling off has occurred for both black and white women (see Table C-1 in Appendix C for non-marital birth data by age and race).

Table TEEN 1. Percentage of Births That Are to Unmarried Women by Age Group, 1940 to 1997

Year	Under 15	15-17 Years	18-19 Years	All Teens	All Women
Notes: Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940 - 1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Data for 1997 are preliminary. Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992"; Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Report of Final Natality Statistics, 1995," Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 45, No. 11, Supplement, 1997; Ventura, S.J., Anderson, R.N., Martin, J.A, and Smith, B.L., "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1997," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47, No. 4, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD, 1998.
1940	64.5	NA	NA	14	3.8
1941	64.1	NA	NA	14.2	3.8
1942	64.5	NA	NA	13.2	3.4
1943	64.2	NA	NA	13.4	3.3
1944	64.5	NA	NA	15.7	3.8
1945	70	NA	NA	18.2	4.3
1946	66.4	NA	NA	15.7	3.8
1947	65.1	NA	NA	13	3.6
1948	61.4	20.8	8.5	12.7	3.7
1949	61.8	21.1	8.6	12.9	3.7
1950	63.7	22.6	9.4	13.9	4
1951	62.9	21.8	9.1	13.5	3.9
1952	63.6	22.8	9.2	14	3.9
1953	64	22.3	9.6	14.1	4.1
1954	64.4	23.2	10.1	14.7	4.4
1955	66.3	23.2	10.3	14.9	4.5
1956	66.1	23	10	14.6	4.6
1957	66.1	23.1	9.8	14.5	4.7
1958	66.2	23.3	10.3	14.9	5
1959	67.9	24.2	10.6	15.4	5.2
1960	67.8	24	10.7	15.4	5.3
1961	69.7	25.3	11.3	16.2	5.6
1962	69.5	26.7	11.3	16.4	5.9
1963	71.1	28.2	12.5	18	6.3
1964	74.2	29.9	13.5	19.7	6.8
1965	78.5	32.8	15.3	21.6	7.7
1966	76.3	35.3	16.1	22.6	8.4
1967	80.3	37.7	18	25	9
1968	81	40.4	20.1	27.6	9.7
1969	79.3	41.3	21.1	28.7	10
1970	80.8	43	22.4	30.5	10.7
1971	82.1	44.5	23.2	31.8	11.3
1972	81.9	45.9	24.7	33.8	12.4
1973	84.8	46.7	25.6	35	13
1974	84.6	48.3	27	36.4	13.2
1975	87	51.4	29.8	39.3	14.2
1976	86.4	54	31.6	41.2	14.8
1977	88.2	56.6	34.4	43.8	15.5
1978	87.3	57.5	36.2	44.9	16.3
1979	88.8	60	38.1	46.9	17.1
1980	88.7	61.5	39.8	48.3	18.4
1981	89.2	63.3	41.4	49.9	18.9
1982	89.2	65	43	51.4	19.4
1983	90.4	67.5	45.7	54.1	20.3
1984	91.1	69.2	48.1	56.3	21
1985	91.8	70.9	50.7	58.7	22
1986	92.5	73.3	53.6	61.5	23.4
1987	92.9	75.8	56	64	24.5
1988	93.6	77.1	58.5	65.9	25.7
1989	92.4	77.7	60.4	67.2	27.1
1990	91.6	77.7	61.3	67.6	28
1991	91.3	78.7	63.2	69.3	29.5
1992	91.3	79.2	64.6	70.5	30.1
1993	91.3	79.9	66.1	71.8	31
1994	94.5	84.1	70	75.9	32.6
1995	93.5	83.7	69.8	75.6	32.2
1996	93.8	84.4	70.8	76.3	32.4
1997	95.7	86.6	72.3	78.1	32.4

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 2. Percentage of All Births That are to Unmarried Teens

This risk factor shows the percentage of total births that are to unmarried teen mothers each year.

Figure TEEN 2. Percentage of all Births That Are to Unmarried Teens Ages 15-19, 1940 to 1997

Source: Table TEEN 2.

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• In contrast to Figure TEEN 1, which showed births to unmarried teens as a percentage of all teen births, Figure TEEN 2 shows births to unmarried teens as a percentage of births to all women, teens or adults, married or unmarried. Births to unmarried teens as a percentage of all births have risen, from 2 percent in 1940 to 10 percent in 1997. This percentage is affected by several factors: the age distribution of the population, the marriage rate among teens, the birth rate among unmarried teens, and the birth rate among all other women.
• The percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens leveled off over the last four years for births to both white and black women.
• Between 1970 and 1994, the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens had been increasing steadily among white women.
• Among births to black women, the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens varied greatly during the same period, peaking in 1975, then falling until the early 1990s. The sharp increase in the percentage for black women in the early 1970s reflects a rise in non-marital teen births concurrent with a decline in total black births.

Table TEEN 2. Percentage of All Births That Are to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, 1940 to 1997

Year	All Races	White	Black
Notes: Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940 - 1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child; see sources below. Data for 1997 are preliminary. Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992," Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Report of Final Natality Statistics, 1995," Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 45, No. 11, Supplement, 1997; Ventura, S.J., Anderson, R.N., Martin, J.A., Smith, B.L., "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1997," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47, No. 4, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD, 1998.
1940	1.7	0.8	NA
1941	1.7	0.7	NA
1942	1.5	0.7	NA
1943	1.5	0.6	NA
1944	1.6	0.8	NA
1945	1.8	0.8	NA
1946	1.5	0.7	NA
1947	1.4	0.7	NA
1948	1.5	0.7	NA
1949	1.5	0.6	NA
1950	1.6	0.6	NA
1951	1.5	0.6	NA
1952	1.5	0.6	NA
1953	1.6	0.6	NA
1954	1.7	0.7	NA
1955	1.7	0.7	NA
1956	1.7	0.7	NA
1957	1.8	0.7	NA
1958	1.9	0.8	NA
1959	2	0.9	NA
1960	2	0.9	NA
1961	2.2	1	NA
1962	2.3	1.1	NA
1963	2.5	1.2	NA
1964	2.8	1.3	NA
1965	3.3	1.6	NA
1966	3.8	1.9	NA
1967	4.1	2.1	NA
1968	4.5	2.3	NA
1969	4.7	2.4	17.5
1970	5.1	2.6	18.8
1971	5.5	2.6	20.3
1972	6.2	3	22.6
1973	6.5	3.2	23.4
1974	6.7	3.3	23.9
1975	7.1	3.7	24.2
1976	7.1	3.8	23.8
1977	7.2	4	23.4
1978	7.2	4	22.7
1979	7.2	4.1	22.5
1980	7.3	4.4	22.2
1981	7.1	4.5	21.5
1982	7.1	4.5	21.2
1983	7.2	4.6	21.2
1984	7.1	4.6	20.7
1985	7.2	4.8	20.3
1986	7.5	5.1	20.1
1987	7.7	5.3	20
1988	8	5.6	20.3
1989	8.3	5.9	18.6
1990	8.4	6.1	18.3
1991	8.7	6.4	18.1
1992	8.7	6.5	20.2
1993	8.9	6.8	20.2
1994	9.7	7.5	21.1
1995	9.6	7.6	21.1
1996	9.6	7.7	20.9
1997	9.8	7.9	20.7

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates Within Age Groups

This indicator tracks trends in the number of births per 1,000 unmarried teen women within specific age groups.

Figure TEEN 3a. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 17, 1966 to 1996

Figure TEEN 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 to 19, 1966 to 1996

Source: Table TEEN 3.

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• The birth rate per 1,000 single teens fell between 1994 and 1996 for both black and white teens in the 15 to 17 and 18 to 19 age groups, with the largest relative decline among black teens age 15 to 17.
• Prior to 1994, birth rates among single white teens in both age groups rose steadily for nearly three decades.
• Among single black teens in both age groups, birth rates varied greatly over the period, peaking in 1991, and falling thereafter. Rates for both age groups were lower in 1996 than in 1970.

Table TEEN 3. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women Within Age Groups, 1966 to 1996

	Ages 15-17			Ages 18-19
Year	Total	White	Black	Total	White	Black
Note: Rates are per 1,000 unmarried women in specified group; rates prior to 1980 are estimated. Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940 - 1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child; see sources below. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years. Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992," Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995 and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Report of Final Natality Statistics, 1996," Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 46, No. 11, Supplement, 1998.
1966	13.1	5.4	NA	25.6	14.1	NA
1967	13.8	5.6	NA	27.6	15.3	NA
1968	14.7	6.2	NA	29.6	16.6	NA
1969	15.2	6.6	72.0	30.8	16.6	128.4
1970	17.1	7.5	77.9	32.9	17.6	136.4
1971	17.5	7.4	80.7	31.7	15.8	135.2
1972	18.5	8.0	82.8	30.9	15.1	128.2
1973	18.7	8.4	81.2	30.4	14.9	120.5
1974	18.8	8.8	78.6	31.2	15.3	122.2
1975	19.3	9.6	76.8	32.5	16.5	123.8
1976	19.0	9.7	73.5	32.1	16.9	117.9
1977	19.8	10.5	73.0	34.6	18.7	121.7
1978	19.1	10.3	68.8	35.1	19.3	119.6
1979	19.9	10.8	71.0	37.2	21.0	123.3
1980	20.6	12.0	68.8	39.0	24.1	118.2
1981	20.9	12.6	65.9	39.0	24.6	114.2
1982	21.5	13.1	66.3	39.6	25.3	112.7
1983	22.0	13.6	66.8	40.7	26.4	111.9
1984	21.9	13.7	66.5	42.5	27.9	113.6
1985	22.4	14.5	66.8	45.9	31.2	117.9
1986	22.8	14.9	67.0	48.0	33.5	121.1
1987	24.5	16.2	69.9	48.9	34.5	123.0
1988	26.4	17.6	73.5	51.5	36.8	130.5
1989	28.7	19.3	78.9	56.0	40.2	140.9
1990	29.6	20.4	78.8	60.7	44.9	143.7
1991	30.9	21.8	80.4	65.7	49.6	148.7
1992	30.4	21.6	78.0	67.3	51.5	147.8
1993	30.6	22.1	76.8	66.9	52.4	141.6
1994	32.0	24.1	75.1	70.1	56.4	141.6
1995	30.5	23.6	68.6	67.6	55.4	131.2
1996	29.0	22.7	64.0	65.9	54.1	129.2

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 4. Early Sexual Intercourse

Early sexual intercourse is a strong predictor of subsequent childbearing at an early age, which increases the risk of dependence.

Figure TEEN 4. Percentage of High School Students Grades 9 to 12 Who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse, 1997

Source: Table TEEN 4.

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• Between 1995 and 1997, the percentage of high school students reporting ever had sexual intercourse dropped by 5 percentage points, from 53 percent to 48 percent, as shown in Table TEEN 4.
• The percentage of high school students who report ever having had sexual intercourse increases with each grade, particularly among female students. In 1997, the rates rose from 34 percent for female 9^th grade students to 62 percent for female 12^th grade students, as depicted in Figure TEEN 4.
• Female students in grade 9 were less likely than their male counterparts to report ever having had sexual intercourse (34 percent compared to 42 percent). By grades 10 through 12, however, rates reported by female students had risen slightly above rates reported by male students.
• As shown in Table TEEN 4, in 1997, four-fifths (80 percent) of non-Hispanic black male students reported ever having had sexual intercourse, a percentage that is 14 percentage points above the 66 percent reported by non-Hispanic black female students. Among Hispanic students, the rate for males (58 percent) is 12 percentage points higher than the rate for females (46 percent). Among non-Hispanic white students, however, nearly equal percentages of males and females report ever having had sexual intercourse – 43 percent for males and 44 percent for females.

Table TEEN 4. Percentage of High School Students Grades 9 to 12 Who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse, 1995 and 1997

	1995			1997
	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Surveillance Summaries, Vol. 45 No. SS-4 and Vol. 47, No. SS-3, Table 26.
Total	53.1	54.0	52.1	48.4	48.9	47.7
Grade
9	36.9	40.6	32.1	38.0	41.8	34.0
10	48.0	50.0	46.0	42.5	41.7	43.5
11	58.6	57.1	60.2	49.7	49.3	50.3
12	66.4	67.1	66.0	60.9	60.1	61.9
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	48.9	48.9	49.0	43.6	43.3	44.0
Non-Hispanic Black	73.4	81.0	67.0	72.7	80.3	65.6
Hispanic	57.6	62.0	53.3	52.2	57.7	45.7

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 5. Never-married Family Status

This measure complements the measures of nonmarital births by showing the “stock” of children living with never-married women. Children living with never-married women are at increased risk of dependence.

Figure TEEN 5. Percentage of all Children Living in Families Headed by Never- Married Women, 1983 to 1997

Source: Table TEEN 5.

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• The percentage of children living with never-married women increased from 5 percent in 1983 to 9 percent in 1997. This increase reflects growth across all racial categories, as shown in Figure TEEN 5.
• A very small percentage (2 percent) of white children were living in families headed by never-married women in 1983. Although this percentage increased by 150 percent over the time period, the percentage of white children in families headed by never-married women was still relatively small (5 percent) in 1997.
• The percentage of black children living in families headed by never-married women was much higher than the percentages for other groups throughout the time period. In 1997, for example, 31 percent of black children, compared to 12 percent of Hispanic children and 5 percent of white children, lived in families headed by never-married women.

Table TEEN 5. Percentage of all Children Living in Families Headed by Never-Married Women, 1983 to 1997

Year	All	White	Black	Hispanic
Note: Data are for all children under 18 who are not family heads. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Marital Status and Living Arrangements," Current Population Reports, Series P20-399, 418, 433, 450, 468, 484, 491, 496, and 505, various years.
1983	5.2	1.9	23.5	6.5
1984	5.2	1.9	23.9	6.5
1986	5.9	2.4	26.6	7.2
1988	7.0	3.0	30.4	9.2
1990	7.0	3.0	29.6	8.7
1992	8.4	3.9	33.1	10.3
1994	9.0	4.5	32.9	12.0
1995	8.7	4.3	32.3	10.8
1996	9.0	4.6	31.2	11.3
1997	9.3	5.0	31.4	11.8

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 6. Detached Youth

Teens who are neither in school nor working are likely to be at significant risk of dependence.

Figure TEEN 6. Percentage of Youths Ages 16 to 19 Who Were Neither in School Nor Working by Race, 1985 to 1996

Source: Table TEEN 6.

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• Black and Hispanic youths ages 16 to 19 are more likely than white youths to be neither in school nor working. In 1996, for example, Hispanic youths were twice as likely as white youths to be out of school and work, 16 percent compared to 8 percent.
• In 1975, 12 percent of all youths ages 16 to 19 were neither in school nor working, as shown in Table TEEN 6. This percentage has gradually declined since then, reaching 9percent in 1996.
• The percentage of female youths who are neither in school nor working in 1996 was higher (11 percent) than the comparable percentage (8 percent) of male youths.

Table TEEN 6. Percentage of Youths Ages 16 to 19 Who Were Neither in School Nor Working, 1975 to 1996

	1975	1985	1990	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1998. Table ES 3.6.
All Youths	12	11	10	10	9	10	9	9
Male		9	8	8	8	8	8	8
Female		13	12	12	11	11	11	11
Racial Categories
White		10	9	9	8	9	8	8
Black		18	15	17	15	14	15	14
Hispanic		17	17	16	16	17	16	16

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 7. Teen Alcohol and Substance Abuse

Teen alcohol and substance abuse are important examples of teen problem behavior and may increase the risk of dependence.

Figure TEEN 7. Percentage of Teens Ages 12 to 17 Who Used Cocaine, Marijuana, or Alcohol, 1979 to 1997

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• Source: Table TEEN 7.
• Although both binge and heavy alcohol use declined among teens ages 12 to 17 throughout most of the period, the percentage of teens abusing alcohol rose slightly in 1997.
• Marijuana use among teens declined fairly continuously through the 1980s but has risen fairly sharply since, from a minimum of 4 percent in 1991 to 9 percent in 1997. It is still below the 14 percent level occurring in 1979.
• As shown in Table TEEN 7, cocaine use more than tripled between 1994 and 1997, and in 1997 was at its highest level (1 percent) since 1988.

Table TEEN 7. Percentage of Teens Ages 12 to 17 Who Used Cocaine, Marijuana, or Alcohol, 1979 to 1997

	1979	1982	1985	1988	1991	1994	1996	1997
Note: Cocaine and marijuana use is defined as use during the past month. “Binge" Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on at least one day in the past 30 days. "Occasion" means at the same time or within a couple hours of each other. Heavy Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on each of five or more days in the past 30 days; all Heavy Alcohol Users are also "Binge" Alcohol Users. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration National Household Survey on Drug Abuse: Preliminary Estimates, 1998.
Cocaine	1.5	1.9	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	0.6	1.0
Marijuana	14.2	9.9	10.2	5.4	3.6	6.0	7.1	9.4
Binge Alcohol Use	NA	NA	21.9	15.1	13.2	8.3	7.2	8.3
Heavy Alcohol Use	NA	NA	9.5	4.0	6.0	2.5	2.9	3.1

Teen Behavior Risk Factor 8. Teen Violent Crime Arrests

Teen crime data indicate serious adolescent problem behavior and may predict future dependence.

Figure TEEN 8. Arrest Rates for Violent Crime for Youths Ages 10 to 17, per 100,000 Youths, 1980 to 1996

Source: Table TEEN 8.

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• Arrest rates for violent crimes for all youths peaked in 1994 but have gradually been decreasing since that time.
• Historically, youths become more likely to be arrested for violent crimes as they grow older; 17 year-olds, for example, were more than twelve times as likely to be arrested than ten to twelve year-olds in 1996.
• Table TEEN 8 also shows that, as expected, violent crime arrest rates were consistently much higher among males than among females for all ages over the time period.

TEEN 8. Arrest Rates for Violent Crime for Youths Ages 10 to 17, per 100,000 Youths, 1980 to 1996

	1980	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
Note: Violent crime is the sum of murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault. Rates refer to the number of arrests made per 100,000 inhabitants belonging to the prescribed age group. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1998. Table SD 1.6.
Total
Ages 10-17	334.1	303.0	428.6	461.5	482.9	505.4	527.8	511.6	464.7
Ages 10-12	46.4	56.4	70.6	79.0	85.5	86.1	91.8	89.1	81.4
Ages 13-14	261.4	251.9	368.0	405.4	444.9	461.4	494.2	461.7	409.4
Age 15	503.8	446.1	669.7	732.7	770.0	828.2	857.5	809.6	731.2
Age 16	638.5	565.9	876.2	935.2	994.4	1,028.6	1,055.6	1,021.0	905.6
Age 17	739.5	651.1	982.7	1,066.5	1,056.9	1,110.2	1,113.6	1,109.4	1,022.1
Male
Ages 10-17	587.6	529.8	740.5	797.9	825.7	857.7	888.6	855.7	772.3
Ages 10-12	81.6	99.5	119.8	135.1	145.2	114.8	153.7	147.4	133.8
Ages 13-14	445.6	426.1	603.9	668.5	725.4	744.8	793.1	737.2	649.1
Age 15	875.4	771.7	1,144.1	1,250.6	1,291.9	1,386.5	1,421.7	1,329.9	1,195.2
Age 16	1,132.6	997.3	1,534.9	1,637.3	1,730.7	1,776.5	1,809.1	1,733.5	1,530.8
Age 17	1,325.8	1,166.1	1,758.1	1,909.7	1,877.6	1,956.8	1,950.2	1,933.6	1,760.4
Female
Ages 10-17	70.2	66.9	104.0	111.4	126.0	138.8	152.2	153.4	144.6
Ages 10-12	3.4	4.0	7.5	8.1	9.2	9.7	10.5	10.7	10.0
Ages 13-14	47.4	52.7	77.0	82.8	95.9	107.9	121.5	117.0	107.5
Age 15	63.4	55.3	88.5	93.5	112.4	118.7	130.6	134.7	123.3
Age 16	129.6	114.6	187.4	208.9	219.8	249.9	265.4	268.0	257.1
Age 17	131.0	114.1	183.9	189.0	210.6	224.5	246.8	250.3	247.5

Appendices

Appendix A. Program Data

The Welfare Indicators Act specifies that the annual welfare indicators reports shall include analyses of families and individuals receiving assistance under three means-tested benefit programs: the program of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) under part A of title IV of the Social Security Act (replaced with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996), the Food Stamp Program under the Food Stamp Act of 1997, and the Supplemental Security Income program under title XVI of the Social Security Act. This chapter includes information on the three programs, derived primarily from administrative data reported by state and federal agencies, instead of the national survey data presented in previous chapters. Discussion of each of the three individual programs is preceded, however, by an overview of several recent studies of caseload changes in the AFDC, Food Stamp, and SSI programs.

Recent Studies of Caseload Change

Historically, caseload size has served as the preeminent indicator of welfare dependence. Given the anticipated growth in state-level program variations since enactment of the PRWORA, several recent studies have looked at caseload changes among states.

A May 1997 report by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) attempted to determine the cause of the 20 percent decline in number of individuals receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children from January 1993 and January 1997 by examining the impacts of three potential factors. The factors considered were economic growth, federal waivers which allowed states to experiment with innovative ways to reduce welfare dependence, and other policies affecting work-related incentives including expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and increased state and federal spending on child care. The CEA attributed over 40 percent of the caseload decline to falling unemployment rates associated with economic growth. Their analysis also found that almost one-third of the decline resulted from statewide welfare reform waivers in six broad categories: termination time limits, work-requirement time limits, reduced work program exemptions, increased work program sanctions, caps on benefits to families that have additional children while on welfare, and increased earnings disregards. Other factors, which might include policies such as the EITC expansions, accounted for the remainder of the caseload decline.

Another study, done by The Lewin Group, sought to improve understanding of state-level factors behind historical growth in AFDC caseloads by analyzing the relationship between state AFDC caseload growth and the strength and structure of the state economy, demographic trends, and changes in the structure of AFDC and other public assistance programs. Separately, Rebecca Blank investigated the determinants of aggregate public assistance (principally the AFDC program) caseload changes over time, by investigating the role of macroeconomic forces, public policies and demographic change.

Methodological differences notwithstanding, all three efforts concluded that the effects of the economy on welfare caseload changes were substantial. Unemployment rates, wage levels and job growth were all determined to be important factors. These are critical findings for states as they prepare for the implications of economic recessions and recoveries under the TANF block grant. Welfare caseload reductions caused by economic factors are also the most likely to be reflected in commensurate movement along the continuum from dependence to self-sufficiency at the family level.

Several other factors were also found to influence the size of welfare caseloads, including program parameters and operating rules. Benefit levels and eligibility criteria are significant determinants of caseload levels. In recent years, many states received waivers of federal requirements in order to experiment with policies that varied widely in scope. Many policies were designed to promote work, both through incentives for recipients (such as increased earnings disregards and expanded child care) and measures designed to strengthen enforcement of work requirements. Policies that reduced the number of exemptions from work requirements, increased sanctions or required work after a limited time period in exchange for benefits were adopted in a number of states. Interestingly, some of the estimated waiver effects on caseloads occurred even before the waiver was approved or implemented.

The increased options available to state agencies in implementing the TANF program under the new welfare law highlight the role that policy forces play in effecting caseload changes. State responses to their increased flexibility to define eligibility are still evolving. It is clear, however, that these policy decisions will determine even how “cases” are defined for data reporting purposes.

Concern about an increase of one million persons participating in the Food Stamp Program between the second quarters of fiscal years 1989 and 1990, a time with no major changes in the program or the economy, prompted Congress to ask the U.S. Department of Agriculture to conduct a study detailing the specific factors and trends responsible. While the program growth was widespread, the size and timing of the participation increases varied considerably by state, with three states accounting for nearly half the increase.

The study concluded that no one factor could explain the increase, and that the importance of the three factors most responsible varied significantly from state to state. In some states, the expansions in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant women and children appeared to be a major contributor, although no clear regional pattern was evident. Increased unemployment was a key contributor in the northeast and north central states, while the changes in immigration laws, particularly the legalization of undocumented aliens (by the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986) were important in California and other southern and western states.

Aside from specific factors attributed to discrete periods of dramatic caseload changes, a number of factors are associated with changes in Food Stamp Program participation. Economic factors such as increases in unemployment, increases in the number of “working poor,” increases in food prices, and changes in the distribution of income are important, as are demographic changes such as an increase in the number of female-headed households. Other factors include changes in the number of eligible households caused by immigration legislation, changes in the Food Stamp Program itself, and changes in other public assistance programs that bring more people into the public assistance system.

Similarly, several factors have contributed to the growth of the Supplemental Security Income program. According to the General Accounting Office (GAO), three groups accounted for nearly 90 percent of the SSI program’s growth since 1991: adults with mental impairments, children and noncitizens. The GAO attributes caseload growth to several factors including: expansion in disability eligibility (particularly for mentally impaired adults and for children), increased outreach, immigration growth, and transfers from state programs.

The remainder of this chapter presents brief descriptions of the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI programs and highlights some of the recent legislative changes that will affect program participation and expenditures over time. (Effects from some of the Food Stamp Program changes, in particular, under PRWORA are already reflected in the data.) National caseload and expenditure trend information on each of the three programs is included, as well as state-by-state trend tables on each program and information on the characteristics of participants in each program.

Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) was established by the Social Security Act of 1935 as a grant program to enable states to provide cash welfare payments for needy children who have been deprived of parental support or care because their father or mother is absent from the home, incapacitated, deceased, or unemployed. All 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands operated an AFDC program. States defined “need,” set their own benefit levels, established (within federal limitations) income and resource limits, and administered the program or supervised its administration. States were entitled to unlimited federal funds for reimbursement of benefit payments, at “matching” rates which were inversely related to state per capita income. States were required to provide aid to all persons who were in classes eligible under federal law and whose income and resources were within state-set limits.

AFDC enrollments and benefit outlays have generally increased in times of economic recession and declined in times of economic growth. Both caseloads and outlays rose to all-time high levels in fiscal year 1994. That year a monthly average of 14.2 million persons (9.6 million children) in 5 million families received benefits totaling $22.8 billion. AFDC participation then fell to 12.6 million persons in fiscal year 1996.

Recent Legislative Changes. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act of 1996 (PRWORA) eliminated the AFDC cash welfare and other related programs (AFDC administration, the Job Opportunities and Basic Skills Training (JOBS) program and the Emergency Assistance program) and created in their place a cash welfare block grant called Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Its purpose is to increase state flexibility in providing assistance to needy families so that children can be cared for at home; end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits by promoting job preparation, work and marriage; prevent and reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock pregnancies; and encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families. The implementation date for the TANF block grant was July 1, 1997, although states could, and most did, begin their block grant programs sooner.

Spending through the TANF block grant is capped and funded at $16.4 billion per year, slightly above fiscal year 1995 federal expenditures for the four component programs. Each year between 1996 and 2002, the basic block grant provides each state with the highest of recent annual funding levels it received for the four constituent programs to operate welfare programs that stress work instead of government dependence. To receive each year’s full TANF block grant, a state must spend in the previous year on behalf of TANF-eligible families a sum equal to 75 percent of state funds used in fiscal year 1994 on the replaced programs (its “historic” level of welfare expenditures). If a state fails to meet work participation rates, its required “maintenance of effort” spending rises to 80 percent. To assist in recessions or other emergencies, states that maintain 100 percent of fiscal year 1994 AFDC-related spending are eligible to receive matching grants from a $2 billion contingency fund.

The new law gives states wide latitude in developing innovative programs that will get families off welfare and into jobs. States set TANF eligibility standards and benefit levels. TANF block grant funds are guaranteed payments to states, but can be reduced if states fail to meet specified requirements such as meeting work participation requirements and ensuring that funds are spent on children and families. In addition, states are prohibited from using federal cash welfare block grant funds to: (1) provide cash or noncash TANF benefits to families in which an adult has already received assistance through the block grant for 5 years with an exemption of 20 percent of the caseload, (2) pay TANF benefits to noncitizens (including legal immigrants) arriving after the date of enactment (August 22, 1996) during their first 5 years in the United States¹, and (3) pay benefits to parents who fail to participate in work or a state-designed welfare-to-work program after 24 months (or shorter at state option) of receiving cash welfare. The new law also gives states wide flexibility to combat out-of-wedlock births, which are related to increased welfare use and long-term dependence. They may deny or offer aid to two-parent families or to any group; however, if states offer TANF to unmarried teen parents they must require them to live at home or in another adult-supervised setting and attend school in order to be eligible for payments.

AFDC/TANF Program Data. The following tables and figures present a variety of data about the AFDC program:

• Tables A-1 through A-5 and Figures A-1 through A-3 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the AFDC program. As noted above, the transition from AFDC to TANF began in some states as early as October 1996 and was completed by July 1, 1997. As a result, fiscal year 1997 data reflect some TANF program experience, although it is much too early to draw any conclusions about TANF trends;
• Figure A-4 and Table A-6 present some demographic characteristics of the AFDC caseload; and
• Tables A-7 through A-13 present some state-by-state trend data on the AFDC program, plus provisional 1997 data that reflect the phasing out of AFDC and the phasing in of TANF.

Table A-1 presents information on the average monthly number of AFDC families and recipients for each fiscal year since 1970 through Fiscal Year 1997. The U.S. caseload peaked at record highs in 1994, with an average 14.2 million recipients in over 5 million families receiving AFDC benefits each month. Since then the caseload has declined about 22 percent -- by a little over 1 million families and 3.2 million recipients. Preliminary data for the first several months of 1998 suggest that the caseload has continued to decline during the first year of TANF implementation falling as low as 8.4 million recipients in 3.0 million families in June 1998, as shown in Table A-10. (Because data on the demographic characteristics of the TANF caseload are not available, most of the other tables in this Appendix present data through June 1997). As shown on Table A-2, the average monthly benefit per recipient has continued the steady decline (in 1997 dollars) which began in 1988; recipients received an average 23 percent less in AFDC/TANF benefits (in 1997 dollars) in 1997 than in 1988.

Table A-1. Trends in AFDC/ TANF Enrollments, 1962 – 1997 ¹

	Average Monthly Number (In thousands)					Children as Average
	Total Families 2	Unemployed			Total	Total	of Children
		Total	Families	Parent
1 The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 2 3 Based on data for the first 9 months of the fiscal year. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, (Available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/).
1962		3,593	49		2,778	77.3
1963		3,834	54		2,896	75.5
1964		4,059	60		3,043	75.0
1965		4,323	69		3,242	75.0
1966		4,472	62		3,369	75.3
1967		4,718	58		3,561	75.5
1968		5,348	67		4,011	75.0
1969		6,147	66		4,591	74.7
1970		7,429	78		5,494	74.0
1971		9,556	143		6,963	72.9
1972		10,632	134		7,698	72.4
1973		11,038	120		7,965	72.2
1974		10,845	95		7,824	72.1
1975		11,067	101		7,928	71.6
1976		11,339	135		8,156	71.9
1977		11,108	149		7,818	70.4
1978		10,663	128		7,475	70.1
1979		10,311	114		7,193	69.8
1980		10,597	141		7,320	69.1
1981		11,160	209		7,615	68.2
1982		10,431	232		6,975	66.9
1983		10,659	272		7,051	66.1
1984		10,866	287		7,153	65.8
1985		10,813	261		7,165	66.3
1986		10,995	254		7,300	66.4
1987		11,065	236		7,381	66.7
1988		10,920	210		7,325	67.1
1989		10,935	193		7,370	67.4
1990		11,460	204		7,755	67.7
1991		12,595	268		8,515	67.6
1992		13,625	322		9,225	67.7
1993		14,143	359		9,539	67.6
1994		14,226	363		9,590	67.6
1995		13,659	335		9,275	67.9
1996		12,644	301		8,673	68.6
1997		11,015	275	1,158 3	3	70.6	2.0 3

Figure A-1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance ¹

¹ The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program.

Note: Shaded areas are periods of recession. Effective July 1, 1981 families with incomes greater than 150 percent of a State's standard of need were no longer eligible for income assistance; this income cut-off was raised to 185 percent in 1984. Last data point plotted is June 1997 for U-P and Basic Families and March 1998 for Total Families.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation.

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Figure A-2. Average Number of Children per Family For Families with Related Children Under 18 by Living Arrangement, 1960 – 1996

(In millions)

Note: For 1960-74 the average number of children per married-couple family is estimated based on all male-headed families of which during this period they comprised 98-99 percent.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992-1993 and earlier years; U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1996," Current Population Reports, Series P60-198 and earlier years.

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Table A-2. Trends in AFDC/TANF Average Monthly Payments, 1962 – 1997 ¹

Fiscal Year	Monthly Benefit per Recipient		Average Number of Persons per Family	Monthly Benefit per Family (not reduced by Child Support)		Weighted Average2 Monthly Benefit (per 3-person Family)
	Current Dollars	1997 Dollars		Current Dollars	1997 Dollars	Current Dollars	1997 Dollars
1 The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program. 2 The maximum benefit for a 3-person family in each state is weighted by that state’s share of total AFDC families. 3 Estimated based on the weighted average benefit for a 4-person family. Note: AFDC benefit amounts have not been reduced by child support collections. Constant dollar adjustments to 1997 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year price index. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992 & 1993 and earlier years along with unpublished data.
1962	$31	$152	3.9	$121	$593	NA	NA
1963	31	151	4.0	126	608	NA	NA
1964	32	152	4.1	131	626	NA	NA
1965	34	158	4.2	140	659	NA	NA
1966	35	161	4.2	146	670	NA	NA
1967	36	162	4.1	150	670	NA	NA
1968	40	171	4.1	162	698	NA	NA
1969	43	179	4.0	173	717	1863	774
1970	46	181	3.9	178	705	1943	769
1971	48	181	3.8	180	683	2013	761
1972	51	188	3.6	187	684	2053	751
1973	53	186	3.5	187	656	2133	747
1974	57	183	3.4	194	627	2293	740
1975	63	186	3.3	209	616	243	717
1976	71	195	3.2	226	622	257	708
1977	78	200	3.1	241	619	271	696
1978	83	200	3.0	249	603	284	685
1979	87	193	2.9	257	570	301	667
1980	94	187	2.9	274	545	320	638
1981	96	174	2.9	277	501	326	590
1982	103	174	2.9	300	508	331	560
1983	106	172	2.9	311	503	336	544
1984	110	171	2.9	321	499	352	546
1985	112	168	2.9	329	493	369	553
1986	116	169	2.9	339	495	383	560
1987	123	175	2.9	359	511	393	559
1988	127	174	2.9	370	506	404	552
1989	131	171	2.9	381	497	412	538
1990	135	167	2.9	389	483	421	523
1991	135	159	2.9	388	458	425	502
1992	136	156	2.9	389	446	419	480
1993	131	146	2.8	373	415	414	461
1994	134	145	2.8	376	408	420	451
1995	134	142	2.8	377	397	418	441
1996	135	138	2.8	374	384	422	433
1997	134	134	2.8	373	373	420	420

Figure A-3. Average Monthly AFDC Benefit By Family and Recipient in Current and Constant Dollars

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992 & 1993, and unpublished data.

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Table A-3. Total, Federal, and State AFDC/TANF Expenditures, 1970 – 1997 ¹

[In millions of current and 1997 dollars]

Fiscal Year	Federal Share (Current Dollars)		State Share (Current Dollars)		Total (Current Dollars)		Total (Constant 97 Dollars 4)
	Benefits	Administrative	Benefits	Administrative	Benefits	Administra- tive	Benefits	Administrative
1 The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program. Spending categories not entirely equivalent. 2 Includes expenditures for services. 3 Administrative expenditures only. 4 Constant dollar adjustments to 1997 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year price index. 5 Provisional data, subject to change. Note: Benefits do not include emergency assistance payments and have not been reduced by child support collections. Foster care payments are included from 1971 to 1980. Beginning in fiscal year 1984, the cost of certifying AFDC households for food stamps is shown in the food stamp program’s appropriation under the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Administrative costs include: Child Care administration, Work Program, ADP, FAMIS, Fraud Control, SAVE and other State and local administrative expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Program Systems.
1970	$2,187	$572 2	$1,895	$309	$4,082	$881 2	$16,146	$3,485
1971	3,008	271	2,469	254	5,477	525	20,740	1,988
1972	3,612	240 3	2,942	241	6,554	481 3	23,966	NA
1973	3,865	313	3,138	296	7,003	610	24,595	2,142
1974	4,071	379	3,300	362	7,371	740	23,844	2,394
1975	4,625	552	3,787	529	8,412	1,082	24,801	3,190
1976	5,258	541	4,418	527	9,676	1,069	26,705	2,950
1977	5,626	595	4,762	583	10,388	1,177	26,688	3,024
1978	5,724	631	4,898	617	10,621	1,248	25,599	3,008
1979	5,825	683	4,954	668	10,779	1,350	23,890	2,992
1980	6,448	750	5,508	729	11,956	1,479	23,823	2,947
1981	6,928	835	5,917	814	12,845	1,648	23,273	2,986
1982	6,922	878	5,934	878	12,857	1,756	21,764	2,973
1983	7,332	915	6,275	915	13,607	1,830	22,030	2,963
1984	7,707	876	6,664	822	14,371	1,698	22,318	2,637
1985	7,817	890	6,763	889	14,580	1,779	21,856	2,667
1986	8,239	993	6,996	967	15,235	1,960	22,274	2,866
1987	8,914	1,081	7,409	1,052	16,323	2,133	23,207	3,033
1988	9,125	1,194	7,538	1,159	16,663	2,353	22,759	3,214
1989	9,433	1,211	7,807	1,206	17,240	2,417	22,471	3,150
1990	10,149	1,358	8,390	1,303	18,539	2,661	23,019	3,304
1991	11,165	1,373	9,191	1,300	20,356	2,673	24,060	3,159
1992	12,258	1,459	9,993	1,378	22,250	2,837	25,524	3,255
1993	12,270	1,518	10,016	1,438	22,286	2,956	24,817	3,292
1994	12,512	1,680	10,285	1,621	22,797	3,301	24,731	3,581
1995	12,019	1,770	10,014	1,751	22,032	3,521	23,254	3,717
1996	11,065	1,633	9,346	1,633	20,411	3,266	20,962	3,354
1997 5	9,746	1,286	7,902	1,128	17,648	3,234	17,648	3,234

Table A-4. Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996

[In millions of current and 1996 dollars]

Fiscal Year	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Single Parent1	Unemployed Parent	Child Support Collections2	Net Benefits3 (1) + (2) minus (3)	Net Benefits (1996 dollars)4
1 Includes payments to two-parent families where one adult is incapacitated. 2 Total AFDC collections (including collections on behalf of foster care children) less payments to AFDC families. 3 Net AFDC benefits--Gross benefits less those reimbursed by child support collections. 4 Constant dollar adjustments to 1996 level were made using a CPI-U-XI fiscal year price index. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Financial Management.
1970	3,851	231	0	4,082	15,722
1971	4,993	412	0	5,405	19,882
1972	5,972	422	0	6,394	22,715
1973	6,459	414	0	6,873	22,504
1974	6,881	324	0	7,205	22,740
1975	7,791	362	0	8,153	23,363
1976	8,825	525	245	9,105	24,469
1977	9,420	617	395	9,642	24,121
1978	9,624	565	459	9,730	22,870
1979	9,865	522	584	9,803	21,156
1980	10,847	693	593	10,947	21,186
1981	11,769	1,075	659	12,185	21,472
1982	11,601	1,256	771	12,086	19,879
1983	12,136	1,471	865	12,742	20,128
1984	12,759	1,612	983	13,388	20,264
1985	13,024	1,556	901	13,679	19,967
1986	13,672	1,563	951	14,284	20,335
1987	14,807	1,516	1,070	15,252	21,115
1988	15,243	1,420	1,196	15,466	20,569
1989	15,889	1,350	1,286	15,952	20,246
1990	17,059	1,480	1,416	17,123	20,702
1991	18,529	1,827	1,603	18,753	21,583
1992	20,130	2,121	1,824	20,426	22,816
1993	19,988	2,298	1,971	20,315	22,028
1994	20,393	2,404	2,093	20,704	21,871
1995	19,820	2,212	2,215	19,817	20,367
1996	18,438	1,973	2,374	18,037	18,037

Table A-5. Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage of Various Population Groups, 1970 – 1997

Calender Year	Total AFDC Recipients in the States & DC (in thousands)	AFDC Child Recipients in the States & DC (in thousands)	AFDC Recipients as a Percent of Total Population1	AFDC Recipients as a Percent of Poverty Population2	AFDC Recipients as a Percent of Pretransfer Poverty Population3	AFDC Child Recipients as a Percent of Total Child Population1	AFDC Child Recipients as a Percent of Children in Poverty2
1 Population numbers used as denominators are resident population. See Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106. 2 For poverty population data see Current Population Reports, Series P60-201. 3 The pretransfer poverty population used as denominator is the number of all persons in families with related children under 18 years of age whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations. 4 Average for January through June of 1997. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1996," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).
1970	8,303	6,104	4.1	32.7	NA	8.8	58.5
1971	10,043	7,303	4.9	39.3	NA	10.5	69.2
1972	10,736	7,766	5.1	43.9	NA	11.2	75.5
1973	10,738	7,763	5.1	46.7	NA	11.3	80.5
1974	10,621	7,637	5.0	45.4	NA	11.3	75.2
1975	11,131	7,928	5.2	43.0	NA	11.8	71.4
1976	11,098	7,850	5.1	44.4	NA	11.8	76.4
1977	10,856	7,632	4.9	43.9	NA	11.7	74.2
1978	10,387	7,270	4.7	42.4	NA	11.2	73.2
1979	10,140	7,057	4.5	38.9	53.1	11.0	68.0
1980	10,599	7,295	4.7	36.2	49.2	11.4	63.2
1981	10,893	7,397	4.7	34.2	47.1	11.7	59.2
1982	10,161	6,767	4.4	29.5	40.6	10.8	49.6
1983	10,569	6,967	4.5	29.9	41.9	11.1	50.1
1984	10,644	7,017	4.5	31.6	43.6	11.2	52.3
1985	10,672	7,073	4.5	32.3	45.0	11.3	54.4
1986	10,851	7,206	4.5	33.5	46.6	11.5	56.0
1987	10,842	7,240	4.5	33.6	46.7	11.5	55.9
1988	10,728	7,201	4.4	33.8	47.7	11.4	57.8
1989	10,799	7,286	4.4	34.3	47.6	11.5	57.9
1990	11,497	7,781	4.6	34.2	47.1	12.1	57.9
1991	12,728	8,601	5.0	35.6	49.1	13.2	60.0
1992	13,571	9,183	5.3	35.7	50.8	13.9	60.1
1993	14,007	9,439	5.4	35.7	48.5	14.1	60.2
1994	13,976	9,440	5.4	36.7	50.0	13.9	61.8
1995	13,240	9,009	5.0	36.3	50.1	13.1	61.5
1996	12,150	8,355	4.6	33.3	46.4	12.1	57.8
1997	10,236	7,340 4	3.8	28.8	NA	10.6	52.0

Figure A-4. Characteristics of AFDC Families

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of AFDC Recipients: Fiscal Year 1996 and earlier years, (Current data available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/ofa/content.htm).

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Table A-6. AFDC Characteristics, 1969 – 1996

	May 1969	May 1975	March 1979	Fiscal year1
				1983	1988	1990	1992	1994	1995	19965
1 Percentages are based on the average monthly caseload during the year. Hawaii and the territories are not included in 1983. Data after 1986 include the territories and Hawaii. 2 Calculated on the basis of total number of families. 3 For years after 1983, data are for adult female recipients. 4 States began collecting child support directly in 1975, removing one source of non-AFDC income. 5 Preliminary data. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of AFDC Recipients: Fiscal Year 1996 and earlier years, (Current data available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/ofa/content.htm).
Average Family Size (persons)	4.0	3.2	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.9	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.8
Number of Child Recipients (percent of AFDC Cases):
One	26.6	37.9	42.3	43.4	42.5	42.2	42.5	42.6	43.2	43.9
Two	23.0	26.0	28.1	29.8	30.2	30.3	30.2	30.0	30.4	29.9
Three	17.7	16.1	15.6	15.2	15.8	15.8	15.5	15.6	15.5	15.0
Four or More	32.5	20.0	13.9	10.1	9.9	9.9	10.1	9.6	9.6	9.2
Unknown	NA	NA	NA	1.5	1.7	1.4	0.7	1.5	1.3	1.3
Basis for Eligibility (percent children):
Parents Present:
Incapacitated	11.72	7.7	5.3	3.4	3.7	3.6	4.1	3.9	4.3	4.3
Unemployed	4.62	3.7	4.1	8.7	6.5	6.4	8.2	8.7	7.8	8.3
Parents Absent:
Death	5.52	3.7	2.2	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.6
Divorce or Separation	43.32	48.3	44.7	38.5	34.6	32.9	30.0	26.5	25.4	24.3
No Marriage Tie	27.92	31.0	37.8	44.3	51.9	54.0	53.1	55.7	57.4	58.6
Other Reason	3.52	4.0	5.9	1.4	1.6	1.9	2.0	2.6	2.5	2.4
Unknown	NA	NA	NA	1.7	NA	NA	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.6
Mother's Employment Status (percent mothers):3
Full-Time Job	8.2	10.4	8.7	1.5	2.2	2.5	2.2	3.2	3.7	4.7
Part-Time Job	6.3	5.7	5.4	3.4	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.5	5.1	5.4
Presence of Income (percent families):
With Earnings	NA	14.6	12.8	5.7	8.4	8.2	7.4	8.7	9.5	11.1
No Non-AFDC Income	56.0	71.1	80.64	86.84	79.64	80.14	78.94	78.0	77.3	76.0
Median Months on AFDC
Since Most Recent Opening	23.0	31.0	29.0	26.0	26.3	23.0	22.5	21.5	23.2	23.6
Proportion of Households (percent families):
Living in Public Housing	12.8	14.6	NA	10.0	9.6	9.6	9.2	8.3	8.0	8.8
Participating in Food Stamp Or Donated Food Program	52.9	75.1	75.1	83.0	84.6	85.6	87.3	88.7	89.8	89.3
Incld. Non-Recipient Members	33.1	34.8	NA	36.9	36.8	37.7	38.9	46.4	48.3	49.9

Table A-7. AFDC/TANF Assistance by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978 – 1997

[Millions of dollars]

	1978	1982	1986	1988	1992	1994	1996	19971
United States	$10,621	$12,857	$15,235	$16,663	$22,251	$22,797	$20,411	$17,648
1 Provisional. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Program Support, Office of Management Services, unpublished data from the ACF-196 TANF Report and ACF-231 AFDC Line by Line Report.
Alabama	$78	$72	$68	$62	$85	$92	$75	$64
Alaska	17	32	46	54	96	113	107	99
Arizona	30	49	79	103	243	266	228	187
Arkansas	51	34	48	53	61	57	52	48
California	1,813	2,734	3,574	4,091	5,828	6,088	5,908	5,036
Colorado	74	87	107	125	163	158	129	108
Connecticut	169	210	223	218	377	397	323	321
Delaware	28	28	25	24	37	40	35	31
Dist. of Columbia	91	86	77	76	102	126	121	105
Florida	145	207	261	318	733	806	680	544
Georgia	103	172	223	266	420	428	385	316
Guam	3	4	4	3	8	12	14	11
Hawaii	83	88	73	77	125	163	173	163
Idaho	21	20	19	19	24	30	30	20
Illinois	700	802	886	815	883	914	833	707
Indiana	118	139	148	167	218	228	154	126
Iowa	107	127	170	155	164	169	131	120
Kansas	73	81	91	97	119	123	98	112
Kentucky	122	123	104	143	213	198	191	181
Louisiana	97	127	162	182	182	168	130	117
Maine	51	59	84	80	118	108	99	90
Maryland	166	213	250	250	333	314	285	232
Massachusetts	476	468	471	558	751	730	560	472
Michigan	780	1,064	1,248	1,231	1,162	1,132	779	754
Minnesota	165	235	322	338	387	379	333	228
Mississippi	33	55	74	85	89	82	68	60
Missouri	152	176	209	215	274	287	254	219
Montana	15	19	37	41	46	49	46	43
Nebraska	38	49	62	56	65	62	54	49
Nevada	8	12	16	20	41	48	48	40
New Hampshire	21	25	20	21	54	62	50	44
New Jersey	489	513	509	459	527	531	463	426
New Mexico	32	45	51	56	106	144	153	131
New York	1,689	1,641	2,099	2,140	2,944	2,913	2,929	2,657
North Carolina	138	143	138	206	335	353	300	270
North Dakota	14	14	20	22	28	26	21	19
Ohio	441	606	804	805	984	1,016	763	697
Oklahoma	74	74	100	119	169	165	122	94
Oregon	148	100	120	128	200	197	155	175
Pennsylvania	726	740	389	747	906	935	822	702
Puerto Rico	25	65	33	67	75	74	63	45
Rhode Island	59	70	79	82	128	136	125	118
South Carolina	52	76	103	91	119	115	101	72
South Dakota	18	17	15	21	25	25	22	18
Tennessee	77	74	100	125	206	215	190	130
Texas	122	118	281	344	517	544	496	365
Utah	41	47	55	61	76	77	64	58
Vermont	21	38	40	40	67	65	56	53
Virgin Islands	2	3	2	2	4	4	4	3
Virginia	136	166	179	169	225	253	199	161
Washington	175	240	375	401	606	610	585	499
West Virginia	53	56	109	107	120	126	102	89
Wisconsin	260	407	444	506	453	425	291	206
Wyoming	6	9	16	19	27	21	17	12

Table A-8. Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and Family Assistance Grants Under PRWORA

[In millions]

State	FY 1996 Grants for AFDC, EA & JOBS1	FY 1997 State Family Assistance Grant2	Increase from FY 1996 Level	Percent Increase from FY 1996 Level
United States	$14,931	$16,489	$1,558	10.4
1 Excludes IV-A child care. AFDC benefits include the Federal share of child support collections to be comparable to the Family LAssistance Grant; 1996 expenditures as reported through February 25, 1997. 2 Does not include additional funds authorized under P.L. 104-327. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Legislative Affairs and Budget.
Alabama	$75.9	$93.3	$17.4	22.9
Alaska	58.7	63.6	4.9	8.4
Arizona	197.8	222.4	24.7	12.5
Arkansas	51.9	56.7	4.9	9.4
California	3,622.8	3,733.8	111.1	3.1
Colorado	158.3	136.1	-22.3	-14.1
Connecticut	215.3	266.8	51.5	23.9
Delaware	35.2	32.3	-2.9	-8.2
Dist of Columbia	70.8	92.6	21.8	30.8
Florida	497.5	562.3	64.8	13.0
Georgia	288.4	330.7	42.3	14.7
Hawaii	97.9	98.9	1.0	1.0
Idaho	31.3	31.9	0.6	2.0
Illinois	601.1	585.1	-16.0	-2.7
Indiana	133.1	206.8	73.7	55.3
Iowa	128.9	131.5	2.7	2.1
Kansas	89.8	101.9	12.2	13.6
Kentucky	157.2	181.3	24.0	15.3
Louisiana	114.3	164.0	49.7	43.5
Maine	74.8	78.1	3.3	4.5
Maryland	214.3	229.1	14.8	6.9
Massachusetts	353.1	459.4	106.3	30.1
Michigan	632.2	775.4	143.1	22.6
Minnesota	220.8	268.0	47.1	21.3
Mississippi	70.3	86.8	16.4	23.4
Missouri	195.4	217.1	21.7	11.1
Montana	40.4	45.5	5.1	12.7
Nebraska	56.0	58.0	2.0	3.6
Nevada	41.4	44.0	2.6	6.3
New Hampshire	34.7	38.5	3.8	11.1
New Jersey	383.2	404.0	20.9	5.4
New Mexico	132.1	126.1	-6.0	-4.6
New York	2,160.7	2,442.9	282.3	13.1
North Carolina	312.6	302.2	-10.4	-3.3
North Dakota	25.7	26.4	0.7	2.9
Ohio	543.7	728.0	184.3	33.9
Oklahoma	118.2	148.0	29.8	25.2
Oregon	142.0	167.9	25.9	18.2
Pennsylvania	770.1	719.5	-50.6	-6.6
Rhode Island	89.5	95.0	5.5	6.2
South Carolina	94.4	100.0	5.6	5.9
South Dakota	20.2	21.9	1.7	8.2
Tennessee	137.4	191.5	54.1	39.3
Texas	419.0	486.3	67.2	16.0
Utah	64.7	76.8	12.1	18.8
Vermont	42.4	47.4	5.0	11.7
Virginia	121.4	158.3	36.9	30.4
Washington	415.4	404.3	-11.1	-2.7
West Virginia	87.7	110.2	22.5	25.7
Wisconsin	276.4	318.2	41.8	15.1
Wyoming	15.0	21.8	6.8	45.5

Table A-9. Average Monthly AFDC Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1997

[In thousands]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997	Percent Change
									1989-93	1993-97
United States	11,130	11,160	10,813	10,934	13,625	14,226	12,644	10,941	29.3	-22.6
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, Time Trends, FY 1984-1995, and unpublished data.
Alabama	169	171	151	129	142	132	105	86	8.3	-38.6
Alaska	11	16	16	19	32	38	36	35	87.3	-2.8
Arizona	58	62	72	105	181	201	172	147	86.5	-25.0
Arkansas	95	84	64	70	75	69	58	53	4.4	-26.9
California	1,434	1,523	1,619	1,763	2,307	2,639	2,626	2,404	39.7	-2.4
Colorado	92	82	79	97	122	119	99	80	26.6	-35.4
Connecticut	135	142	122	106	157	166	162	154	52.1	-4.4
Delaware	31	33	24	19	26	27	23	22	44.2	-20.2
Dist. of Columbia	96	81	58	48	60	74	70	66	39.4	-0.7
Florida	242	277	271	327	601	669	561	451	112.5	-35.0
Georgia	248	236	239	266	388	393	353	282	49.8	-29.2
Guam	4	6	6	4	5	7	8	8	33.6	42.5
Hawaii	56	62	51	43	50	62	67	71	30.6	27.2
Idaho	20	20	17	17	20	23	23	16	26.6	-24.4
Illinois	771	709	735	632	688	712	655	580	9.0	-15.8
Indiana	165	172	165	147	199	216	148	122	43.0	-42.0
Iowa	95	110	123	98	103	110	89	78	3.6	-22.6
Kansas	76	74	67	74	85	87	68	54	19.2	-39.0
Kentucky	202	175	160	156	229	208	175	158	44.4	-29.8
Louisiana	218	216	230	277	274	248	236	187	-5.0	-28.6
Maine	60	57	57	51	68	64	56	49	32.8	-26.8
Maryland	213	221	195	176	221	222	204	163	25.6	-26.3
Massachusetts	373	344	235	242	310	307	237	207	34.6	-36.3
Michigan	651	759	691	640	674	666	527	449	7.5	-34.8
Minnesota	131	149	152	164	192	187	171	157	17.1	-18.1
Mississippi	174	176	155	179	177	159	129	102	-4.0	-40.3
Missouri	265	215	197	203	251	263	232	197	28.7	-24.7
Montana	18	20	22	28	32	35	31	27	24.9	-22.4
Nebraska	34	39	44	41	48	45	39	37	17.6	-23.6
Nevada	12	14	14	20	32	38	38	29	74.9	-16.3
New Hampshire	25	24	14	13	28	30	24	20	131.9	-33.1
New Jersey	449	469	367	298	353	335	288	251	17.3	-28.2
New Mexico	55	56	51	59	88	102	101	81	62.6	-14.6
New York	1,247	1,108	1,112	979	1,117	1,255	1,184	1,048	22.2	-12.4
North Carolina	200	201	166	200	313	333	278	243	67.1	-27.3
North Dakota	14	13	12	15	18	16	13	11	21.1	-38.4
Ohio	563	590	673	629	749	685	546	494	14.2	-31.3
Oklahoma	89	91	82	103	135	131	105	82	34.0	-40.7
Oregon	122	92	74	87	116	114	87	62	34.8	-46.9
Pennsylvania	655	643	561	523	594	620	544	461	16.3	-24.2
Puerto Rico	188	172	173	185	194	183	155	144	2.6	-24.4
Rhode Island	53	55	44	42	59	63	58	55	47.3	-11.7
South Carolina	140	157	120	107	140	140	119	90	36.4	-38.8
South Dakota	24	19	16	19	20	19	16	13	6.2	-33.2
Tennessee	188	174	155	195	266	300	260	184	59.0	-40.7
Texas	315	325	363	540	758	788	684	574	44.8	-26.6
Utah	37	42	38	44	52	50	40	34	20.6	-35.6
Vermont	22	25	22	20	29	28	25	23	44.7	-19.3
Virgin Islands	4	4	4	3	4	4	5	5	11.1	20.3
Virginia	173	175	154	146	188	195	162	130	33.4	-33.1
Washington	143	155	178	219	273	292	274	254	31.4	-11.8
West Virginia	64	81	106	109	119	114	95	82	8.9	-31.2
Wisconsin	201	241	288	245	244	226	170	120	-3.3	-49.4
Wyoming	7	7	10	14	19	16	13	7	32.8	-59.9

Table A-10. AFDC Caseload by State, October 1989 to June 1998 Peak

[In thousands]

State	Peak Caseload Oct ‘89 to June ‘98	Date Peak Occurred Oct ’89 to June ‘98	June ‘97 Caseload	June ‘98 Caseload	Percent Decline1 From June ‘97	Percent Decline From Peak
Alabama	52.3	Mar-93	32.0	22.7	29.3	56.7
Alaska	13.4	Apr-94	12.0	10.1	16.2	24.5
Arizona	72.8	Dec-93	52.5	37.0	29.5	49.1
Arkansas	27.1	Mar-92	20.7	12.9	37.6	52.5
California	933.1	Mar-95	789.9	689.4	12.7	26.1
Colorado	43.7	Dec-93	28.7	19.8	30.8	54.7
Connecticut	61.9	Mar-95	55.5	41.0	26.1	33.8
Delaware	11.8	Apr-94	9.5	6.7	28.7	42.9
Dist. of Columbia	27.5	Apr-94	23.7	20.5	13.6	25.5
Florida	259.9	Nov-92	160.6	98.7	38.5	62.0
Georgia	142.8	Nov-93	98.2	69.8	28.9	51.1
Guam	2.6	Sep-97	2.2	1.9	12.5	25.2
Hawaii	23.6	Jan-98	23.4	23.6	-0.9	0.0
Idaho	9.5	Mar-95	6.7	1.8	72.7	80.7
Illinois	243.1	Aug-94	191.6	164.2	14.3	32.5
Indiana	76.1	Sep-93	42.4	38.5	9.1	49.3
Iowa	40.7	Apr-94	28.4	24.2	14.8	40.6
Kansas	30.8	Aug-93	18.2	12.9	28.9	58.0
Kentucky	84.0	Mar-93	62.5	49.6	20.6	40.9
Louisiana	94.7	May-90	51.7	48.4	6.3	48.9
Maine	24.4	Aug-93	18.2	15.2	16.2	37.5
Maryland	81.8	May-95	55.0	46.0	16.4	43.8
Massachusetts	115.7	Aug-93	76.0	63.5	16.5	45.1
Michigan	233.6	Apr-91	145.8	115.4	20.8	50.6
Minnesota	66.2	Jun-92	52.3	48.7	7.0	26.5
Mississippi	61.8	Nov-91	36.4	20.8	42.9	66.4
Missouri	93.7	Mar-94	67.6	57.0	15.6	39.2
Montana	12.3	Mar-94	8.8	7.4	16.3	40.0
Nebraska	17.2	Mar-93	13.3	13.3	0.1	22.7
Nevada	16.3	Mar-95	11.7	9.9	15.6	39.5
New Hampshire	11.8	Apr-94	7.9	6.1	22.4	48.2
New Jersey	132.6	Nov-92	97.6	76.8	21.3	42.1
New Mexico	34.9	Nov-94	25.9	22.7	12.4	34.9
New York	463.7	Dec-94	371.0	324.8	12.5	29.9
North Carolina	134.1	Mar-94	95.6	68.0	28.9	49.3
North Dakota	6.6	Apr-93	4.0	3.2	20.6	51.9
Ohio	269.8	Mar-92	180.5	131.4	27.2	51.3
Oklahoma	51.3	Mar-93	28.3	22.3	21.2	56.6
Oregon	43.8	Apr-93	22.7	18.4	19.2	58.0
Pennsylvania	212.5	Sep-94	157.0	129.4	17.6	39.1
Puerto Rico	61.7	Jan-92	47.3	40.9	13.5	33.8
Rhode Island	22.9	Apr-94	19.5	19.0	2.8	17.1
South Carolina	54.6	Jan-93	30.3	23.3	23.4	57.4
South Dakota	7.4	Apr-93	5.0	3.7	25.7	49.3
Tennessee	112.6	Nov-93	64.4	57.1	11.4	49.3
Texas	287.5	Dec-93	204.0	132.5	35.0	53.9
Utah	18.7	Mar-93	11.6	10.5	9.7	43.9
Vermont	10.3	Apr-92	8.2	7.2	12.5	30.3
Virgin Islands	1.4	Dec-95	1.2	1.2	4.2	18.3
Virginia	76.0	Apr-94	50.9	40.8	19.9	46.3
Washington	104.8	Feb-95	91.4	75.0	17.9	28.5
West Virginia	41.9	Apr-93	28.7	13.4	53.4	68.1
Wisconsin	82.9	Jan-92	38.1	11.3	70.4	86.4
Wyoming	7.1	Aug-92	2.0	1.3	37.0	81.9
United States	5,098	Mar-94	3,789	3,031	20.0	40.5
1 Negative values denote percent increase. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, Division of Data Collection and Analysis.

Table A-11. Average Number of AFDC Child Recipients By State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1997 ¹

[In thousands]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	19971	Percent Change
									1989-93	1993-97
United States	7,818	7,614	7,165	7,370	9,226	9,611	8,671	7,781	29.7	-18.6
1 Data shown for 1997 are averages for the first nine months of the fiscal year because information on child recipients is currently available only through June of 1997. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, unpublished data.
Alabama	130	122	105	92	101	96	79	69	9.2	-31.1
Alaska	8	11	10	13	20	24	23	23	82.3	-0.2
Arizona	44	45	50	74	126	136	118	105	82.1	-21.8
Arkansas	72	61	45	50	53	49	42	39	4.4	-24.4
California	977	1,009	1,070	1,186	1,602	1,804	1,805	1,701	43.7	-0.2
Colorado	63	56	53	66	82	80	68	60	26.1	-27.4
Connecticut	98	98	82	71	105	111	108	104	51.5	-4.1
Delaware	22	23	16	13	18	19	16	15	42.0	-19.3
Dist. of Columbia	66	56	43	38	42	51	48	47	20.4	2.6
Florida	179	197	191	235	417	463	395	339	103.3	-29.0
Georgia	189	171	166	187	268	274	251	216	47.9	-21.8
Guam	3	4	4	3	3	5	6	6	31.1	48.3
Hawaii	40	41	33	28	34	41	44	46	31.5	24.7
Idaho	13	14	11	11	13	16	16	14	24.3	-4.8
Illinois	543	491	493	432	472	486	456	414	9.3	-12.4
Indiana	116	120	111	100	133	145	104	86	39.8	-38.3
Iowa	65	72	77	63	67	72	59	53	4.9	-19.9
Kansas	54	52	45	50	57	59	48	40	17.9	-32.4
Kentucky	147	122	107	105	147	137	120	111	38.4	-22.9
Louisiana	155	158	163	195	195	180	162	138	-3.2	-26.8
Maine	41	39	36	32	42	40	35	32	31.3	-22.8
Maryland	154	149	126	117	149	151	140	117	27.4	-22.0
Massachusetts	249	222	152	154	208	197	153	136	35.3	-34.8
Michigan	417	493	441	414	441	439	354	312	8.6	-30.6
Minnesota	89	98	95	105	125	124	116	108	19.4	-13.8
Mississippi	127	129	112	129	128	116	96	81	-3.5	-34.5
Missouri	194	144	129	134	164	176	162	145	27.7	-15.5
Montana	13	14	15	18	21	23	21	18	26.2	-18.5
Nebraska	23	27	29	28	33	31	27	25	16.3	-22.3
Nevada	8	10	9	14	22	27	27	23	74.0	-7.5
New Hampshire	17	16	9	8	18	19	16	14	122.6	-27.1
New Jersey	316	322	247	205	241	228	195	174	16.3	-27.0
New Mexico	41	38	34	41	57	66	65	57	52.4	-7.9
New York	878	759	729	648	743	813	771	704	20.8	-10.0
North Carolina	150	141	113	136	210	223	191	171	64.1	-23.3
North Dakota	9	9	8	10	12	11	9	8	17.6	-32.6
Ohio	398	389	424	411	489	455	382	358	15.1	-24.3
Oklahoma	66	66	57	71	92	90	74	61	33.4	-35.7
Oregon	81	60	49	58	76	76	60	45	33.3	-41.8
Pennsylvania	470	438	369	348	397	417	368	325	17.1	-20.4
Puerto Rico	115	120	116	126	132	124	105	99	2.4	-23.6
Rhode Island	37	37	28	28	39	41	39	37	46.9	-9.3
South Carolina	99	111	84	77	100	102	89	69	37.5	-34.4
South Dakota	18	13	11	13	14	14	12	10	7.2	-26.3
Tennessee	131	122	105	133	180	203	181	137	63.1	-36.9
Texas	235	236	256	378	528	549	484	427	44.2	-21.8
Utah	22	27	24	28	34	33	27	24	22.7	-32.3
Vermont	17	16	14	12	18	17	16	15	41.3	-16.8
Virgin Islands	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	8.8	22.9
Virginia	122	120	103	100	129	134	114	96	33.6	-28.1
Washington	101	99	113	141	176	187	177	169	31.1	-8.5
West Virginia	50	62	64	67	73	72	62	55	10.1	-26.2
Wisconsin	141	159	181	161	165	153	123	94	-1.4	-41.0
Wyoming	5	5	7	9	13	11	9	6	34.4	-51.8

Table A-12. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1997

[In percent]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997	Percent Change
									1989-93	1993-97
Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of AFDC child recipients in each State during the given fiscal year as a percent of the resident population under 18 years of age as of July 1 of that year. The numerators are from Table A-11. Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).
Alabama	11.0	10.7	9.7	8.6	9.5	8.9	7.4	6.4	9	-31
Alaska	5.4	8.3	5.9	7.3	10.9	12.8	12.5	12.2	69	-0
Arizona	5.8	5.7	5.9	7.6	11.9	12.1	9.6	8.2	62	-33
Arkansas	10.7	9.3	7.1	7.9	8.5	7.7	6.4	5.9	3	-28
California	15.3	15.7	15.6	15.6	19.1	20.8	20.3	19.0	28	-5
Colorado	7.8	6.8	6.1	7.6	8.8	8.4	6.8	5.9	16	-33
Connecticut	11.1	12.2	10.8	9.5	13.7	14.2	13.7	13.1	46	-6
Delaware	12.4	14.0	10.2	8.1	10.4	10.5	8.9	8.5	33	-21
Dist. of Columbia	40.7	40.0	33.9	30.7	36.8	44.6	44.0	43.9	30	10
Florida	7.7	8.2	7.6	8.4	13.4	14.1	11.6	9.8	78	-35
Georgia	11.4	10.4	10.1	10.8	14.9	14.6	12.8	10.9	38	-27
Hawaii	14.3	14.8	11.6	10.1	11.5	13.6	14.5	15.3	24	23
Idaho	4.4	4.3	3.6	3.7	4.1	4.6	4.6	3.9	15	-10
Illinois	16.0	15.4	16.1	14.5	15.6	15.8	14.4	13.0	7	-16
Indiana	6.9	7.6	7.5	6.9	9.2	9.8	7.0	5.8	40	-40
Iowa	7.5	8.9	10.2	8.8	9.3	9.9	8.2	7.3	4	-20
Kansas	8.1	8.1	6.9	7.6	8.4	8.6	7.0	5.8	14	-33
Kentucky	13.3	11.5	10.5	10.9	15.4	14.1	12.4	11.6	38	-23
Louisiana	11.6	11.8	12.2	15.5	15.9	14.6	13.4	11.6	-1	-25
Maine	12.2	12.3	11.7	10.4	13.8	13.1	11.8	10.9	32	-21
Maryland	12.3	13.0	11.4	10.2	12.2	12.0	11.1	9.2	18	-24
Massachusetts	15.5	15.3	11.2	11.4	15.1	13.9	10.6	9.4	31	-37
Michigan	14.4	18.3	17.7	16.9	17.7	17.5	14.1	12.5	6	-31
Minnesota	7.2	8.5	8.5	9.2	10.3	10.1	9.4	8.7	13	-16
Mississippi	15.4	16.1	14.0	17.1	17.1	15.4	12.7	10.8	-3	-35
Missouri	13.6	10.7	9.8	10.2	12.2	12.9	11.7	10.3	24	-18
Montana	5.4	6.0	6.1	7.9	9.0	9.7	8.9	8.0	22	-17
Nebraska	4.9	6.0	6.8	6.5	7.5	7.1	6.1	5.7	15	-24
Nevada	4.2	4.3	3.9	5.0	6.6	7.1	6.5	5.1	37	-26
New Hampshire	6.5	6.1	3.7	3.1	6.3	6.7	5.4	4.6	114	-29
New Jersey	14.8	16.6	13.5	11.3	12.8	11.7	9.9	8.7	10	-30
New Mexico	9.9	9.1	7.8	9.0	12.1	13.5	13.1	11.4	42	-11
New York	17.5	16.6	16.7	15.1	16.8	18.1	16.9	15.4	16	-12
North Carolina	8.8	8.7	7.1	8.5	12.5	12.7	10.4	9.2	54	-30
North Dakota	4.7	4.8	4.3	5.7	6.9	6.4	5.4	4.9	23	-30
Ohio	12.2	12.9	14.7	14.6	17.3	16.0	13.4	12.6	14	-24
Oklahoma	7.9	7.6	6.3	8.3	10.7	10.4	8.5	6.9	31	-37
Oregon	11.3	8.2	6.9	8.2	10.0	9.7	7.5	5.6	22	-45
Pennsylvania	14.1	14.4	12.9	12.4	13.9	14.4	12.8	11.3	15	-20
Rhode Island	14.3	15.6	12.6	12.1	16.9	17.7	16.7	15.7	43	-9
South Carolina	10.4	11.9	9.1	8.3	10.7	10.8	9.4	7.3	36	-36
South Dakota	8.3	6.5	5.7	6.7	7.0	6.6	5.9	5.3	3	-23
Tennessee	9.9	9.5	8.6	10.9	14.4	15.7	13.7	10.3	57	-39
Texas	5.6	5.4	5.4	7.9	10.4	10.4	8.8	7.6	34	-27
Utah	4.6	4.7	4.0	4.5	5.3	4.9	4.0	3.4	16	-35
Vermont	11.3	10.9	9.9	8.8	12.2	11.7	10.8	10.0	37	-17
Virginia	8.0	8.3	7.1	6.7	8.2	8.4	7.0	5.8	27	-31
Washington	9.1	8.6	9.7	11.5	12.9	13.3	12.4	11.6	17	-13
West Virginia	8.8	11.2	12.6	14.8	17.0	16.8	14.7	13.3	16	-23
Wisconsin	9.8	11.9	14.2	12.6	12.4	11.4	9.2	7.0	-5	-42
Wyoming	3.6	3.3	4.1	6.6	9.2	8.1	6.9	4.5	37	-50
United States	11.8	11.8	11.2	11.4	13.8	14.0	12.4	11.0	23	-22

Table A-13. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1997

[In percent]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1997	1997	Percent Change
									1989-93	1993-97
United States	5.0	4.8	4.5	4.4	5.3	5.4	4.7	4.0	24	-25
Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of AFDC recipients in each State during the given fiscal year expressed as a percent of the total resident population as of July 1 of that year. The numerators are from Table A-9. Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).
Alabama	4.5	4.4	3.8	3.2	3.4	3.1	2.5	2.0	4	-40
Alaska	2.8	3.9	3.0	3.5	5.4	6.3	6.0	5.8	72	-5
Arizona	2.4	2.2	2.3	2.9	4.7	4.8	3.9	3.2	69	-34
Arkansas	4.3	3.7	2.8	3.0	3.1	2.8	2.3	2.1	1	-30
California	6.4	6.3	6.1	6.0	7.5	8.4	8.2	7.4	31	-6
Colorado	3.4	2.7	2.5	3.0	3.5	3.3	2.6	2.0	16	-41
Connecticut	4.4	4.5	3.8	3.2	4.8	5.1	5.0	4.7	53	-4
Delaware	5.3	5.5	3.9	2.9	3.8	3.9	3.2	3.0	36	-24
Dist. of Columbia	14.2	12.7	9.2	7.7	10.3	13.1	13.0	12.5	51	8
Florida	2.7	2.7	2.4	2.6	4.5	4.8	3.9	3.1	96	-39
Georgia	4.8	4.2	4.0	4.1	5.7	5.6	4.8	3.8	39	-35
Hawaii	6.1	6.3	4.9	3.9	4.4	5.3	5.6	6.0	23	24
Idaho	2.3	2.1	1.7	1.7	1.8	2.0	1.9	1.3	14	-31
Illinois	6.8	6.2	6.4	5.5	5.9	6.1	5.5	4.9	6	-17
Indiana	3.0	3.1	3.0	2.7	3.5	3.8	2.5	2.1	39	-44
Iowa	3.3	3.8	4.3	3.5	3.7	3.9	3.1	2.7	2	-23
Kansas	3.3	3.1	2.8	3.0	3.4	3.4	2.7	2.1	16	-40
Kentucky	5.7	4.8	4.3	4.2	6.1	5.4	4.5	4.0	40	-32
Louisiana	5.4	5.0	5.2	6.5	6.4	5.8	5.4	4.3	-6	-30
Maine	5.4	5.0	4.9	4.2	5.5	5.2	4.5	4.0	31	-27
Maryland	5.1	5.2	4.4	3.7	4.5	4.4	4.0	3.2	20	-28
Massachusetts	6.5	6.0	4.0	4.0	5.2	5.1	3.9	3.4	35	-37
Michigan	7.1	8.2	7.6	6.9	7.1	6.9	5.4	4.6	4	-36
Minnesota	3.3	3.6	3.6	3.8	4.3	4.1	3.7	3.3	12	-21
Mississippi	7.1	6.9	6.0	6.9	6.8	6.0	4.8	3.8	-6	-42
Missouri	5.5	4.3	3.9	4.0	4.8	5.0	4.3	3.6	25	-27
Montana	2.3	2.6	2.7	3.5	3.9	4.1	3.6	3.1	19	-26
Nebraska	2.2	2.5	2.8	2.6	3.0	2.8	2.3	2.2	15	-26
Nevada	1.8	1.7	1.4	1.8	2.4	2.6	2.3	1.8	44	-31
New Hampshire	2.9	2.5	1.4	1.2	2.5	2.7	2.1	1.7	128	-36
New Jersey	6.1	6.3	4.9	3.9	4.5	4.2	3.6	3.1	15	-30
New Mexico	4.5	4.2	3.5	3.9	5.6	6.2	5.9	4.7	51	-20
New York	7.0	6.3	6.2	5.4	6.2	6.9	6.5	5.8	21	-12
North Carolina	3.5	3.4	2.6	3.1	4.6	4.7	3.8	3.3	58	-32
North Dakota	2.1	2.0	1.8	2.4	2.9	2.6	2.1	1.8	23	-39
Ohio	5.2	5.5	6.3	5.8	6.8	6.2	4.9	4.4	12	-32
Oklahoma	3.1	2.9	2.5	3.3	4.2	4.0	3.2	2.5	31	-42
Oregon	5.0	3.5	2.8	3.1	3.9	3.7	2.7	1.9	24	-50
Pennsylvania	5.5	5.4	4.8	4.4	5.0	5.1	4.5	3.8	15	-24
Rhode Island	5.6	5.7	4.5	4.2	5.9	6.3	5.9	5.5	48	-11
South Carolina	4.7	4.9	3.6	3.1	3.9	3.8	3.2	2.4	30	-41
South Dakota	3.5	2.7	2.3	2.7	2.8	2.6	2.2	1.8	2	-35
Tennessee	4.3	3.8	3.3	4.0	5.3	5.8	4.9	3.4	52	-44
Texas	2.4	2.2	2.2	3.2	4.3	4.3	3.6	3.0	35	-32
Utah	2.8	2.8	2.3	2.6	2.8	2.6	2.0	1.6	10	-41
Vermont	4.5	4.8	4.2	3.5	5.1	4.8	4.3	3.9	41	-21
Virginia	3.3	3.2	2.7	2.4	3.0	3.0	2.4	1.9	26	-36
Washington	3.8	3.7	4.0	4.6	5.3	5.5	5.0	4.5	19	-17
West Virginia	3.3	4.1	5.5	6.0	6.6	6.3	5.2	4.5	8	-31
Wisconsin	4.3	5.1	6.1	5.0	4.9	4.5	3.3	2.3	-7	-51
Wyoming	1.6	1.4	2.0	3.0	4.1	3.4	2.7	1.5	30	-61

Food Stamp Program

The Food Stamp Program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food and Nutrition Service, is the largest food assistance program in the country, reaching more poor individuals over the course of a year than any other public assistance program. In fiscal year 1997, 22.9 million persons were served and $19.6 billion in benefits were distributed. Unlike many other public assistance programs, the Food Stamp Program has few categorical requirements for eligibility, such as the presence of children, elderly or disabled individuals in a household. As a result, the program offers assistance to a large and diverse population of needy persons, many of whom are not eligible for other forms of assistance.

The Food Stamp Program was designed primarily to increase the food purchasing power of eligible low-income households to the point where they can buy a nutritionally adequate low-cost diet. Participating households are expected to be able to devote 30 percent of their counted monthly cash income to food purchases. Food stamp benefits then make up the difference between the household’s expected contribution to its food costs and an amount judged to be sufficient to buy an adequate low-cost diet. This amount, the maximum food stamp benefit level, is derived from USDA’s lowest-cost food plan (the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP)).

The Federal government is responsible for virtually all of the rules that govern the program and, with limited variations these rules are nationally uniform, as are the benefit levels. Nonetheless, States, the District of Columbia, Guam, and the Virgin Islands, through their local welfare offices, have primary responsibility for the day-to-day administration of the program². They determine eligibility, calculate benefits, and issue food stamp allotments. The Food Stamp Act provides 100 percent Federal funding of food stamp benefits. States and other jurisdictions have responsibility for about half the cost of state welfare agency administration.

The Food Stamp Program has financial, employment/training-related and “categorical” tests for eligibility. The basic food stamp beneficiary unit is the “household.” Generally, individuals living together constitute a single food stamp household if they customarily purchase food and prepare meals in common. Members of the same household must apply together, and their income, expenses, and assets normally are aggregated in determining food stamp eligibility and benefits. Except for households composed entirely of AFDC, SSI, or general assistance recipients (who generally are automatically eligible for food stamps), monthly cash income is the primary food stamp eligibility determinant. Unless exempt, adult applicants for food stamps must register for work, typically with the welfare agency or a state employment service office. To maintain eligibility, they must accept a suitable job if offered one and fulfill any work, job search, or training requirements established by the administering welfare agencies.

Food stamp benefits are a function of a household’s size, its net monthly income, and maximum monthly benefit levels. Allotments are not taxable and food stamp purchases may not be charged sales taxes. Receipt of food stamps does not affect eligibility for or benefits provided by other welfare programs, although some programs use food stamp participation use food stamps as a “trigger” for eligibility and others take into account the general availability of food stamps in deciding what level of benefits to provide. In fiscal year 1997, monthly benefits averaged $71 a person and about $178 a household.

The size of the population eligible for food stamps is influenced by many factors, including changes in program rules (including immigration laws), changes in the economy, and demographics. Similarly, changes in the economy and changes in attitudes toward “welfare” affect the rate at which eligible individuals participate in the program and may also influence the average length of time spent in the program.

Recent Legislative Changes. Subtitle A of title VIII of the PRWORA contains major and extensive revisions to the Food Stamp Program, including provisions designed to strengthen work and other nonfinancial eligibility requirements and control future spending increases. The impact on program participation and expenditures resulting from some of those provisions are reflected in preliminary 1997 data, while the effects of others will be observable over time.

A new work requirement was added for able-bodied adult food stamp recipients without children. Unless exempt, no individual may be eligible for food stamps if, during the preceding 36-month period, the individual received food stamp benefits for any 3 months while not: (1) working at least 20 hours a week; (2) participating in and complying with a work program for at least 20 hours a week; or (3) participating in and complying with a workfare program. USDA was authorized to waive application of the work requirement to any group of individuals at the request of the state agency, if a determination is made that the area where they reside has an unemployment rate over 10 percent or does not have a sufficient number of jobs to provide them employment. The impacts were further moderated by provisions of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-33).

Separately, title IV of the act made significant changes in the eligibility of noncitizens for Food Stamp benefits. Most qualified aliens (including legal immigrants -- illegal aliens are already ineligible) were barred from Food Stamps until citizenship. Subsequently, the Agriculture Research, Extension and Education Reform Act of 1998 [PL 105-185] restored food stamp eligibility to certain groups of qualified aliens who were legally residing in the United States before passage of PRWORA (August 22, 1996). The ban was lifted for children, disabled and people who were 65 on August 22, 1996.

Growth in future program expenditures was restrained by changes in the benefit structure for eligible participants, including a reduction in the maximum food stamp allotment. Other provisions of the act disqualify from eligibility those convicted of drug-related felonies and give states the option to disqualify individuals, both custodial and noncustodial parents, from food stamps when they do not cooperate with child support agencies or are in arrears in their child support.

Food Stamp Program Data. The following six tables and figures provide information about the Food Stamp Program:

• Tables A-14 and A-15 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the Food Stamp program. As noted above, some PRWORA effects are reflected in the fiscal year 1997 data;
• Figure A-5 and Table A-16 present some demographic characteristics of the food stamp caseload; and
• Tables A-17 through A-19 present some state-by-state trend data on the Food Stamp program through fiscal year 1996.

Table A-14 presents information on the average monthly number of food stamp recipients for each fiscal year since 1970 through Fiscal Year 1997. The health of the economy has historically been a good predictor of the number of participants in the Food Stamp Program. Food stamp participation (excluding Puerto Rico) has continued to fall from its peak in of 28 million in March 1994 to an average of 22.9 million persons in 1997, reaching their lowest point since 1990.³ As shown in Table A-15, total program costs have also declined, reaching their lowest levels since 1990, after adjusting for inflation. Total program costs (including Puerto Rico) were $25.6 billion in Fiscal Year 1996 and declined by 11 percent in 1997 to $22.8 billion. The average monthly benefit per person has also declined and, after adjusting for inflation, is at the same level paid in 1981.

Table A-14. Trends in Food Stamp Participation, 1970 – 1997

Fiscal Year	Total Food Stamp Participants1 (in thousands)	Child Food Stamp Participants1 (in thousands)	Participants as a Percent of Total Population2	Participants as a Percent of All Poor Persons2	Participants as a Percent of Pre-transfer Poverty Population3	Child Participants as a Percent of Total Child Population2	Child Participants as a Percent of Children in Poverty2
1 Total participants includes all participating States, the District of Columbia, and the territories. The number of child participants includes only the participating States and D.C. (the territories are not included). From 1970 to 1974 the number of participants includes the family food assistance program (FFAP) which was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. The FFAP participants for these five years were: 3,977; 3,642; 3,002; 2,441; and 1,406 (all in thousands). The monthly average number of participants for all fiscal years (including 1970-76) is computed as an average from October of the prior calender year to September of the current year. 2 Includes all participating States and the District of Columbia only--the territories are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Population numbers used as denominators are the resident population—see Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106. For the persons living in poverty used as denominators, see Current Population Reports, Series P60-201. 3 The pretransfer poverty population used as denominator is the number of all persons in families or living alone whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations. 4 The first fiscal year in which food stamps were available nationwide. 5 The fiscal year in which the food stamp purchase requirement was eliminated, on a phased in basis. 6 Participation figures in column 1 from 1982 on include enrollment in Puerto Rico’s Nutrition Assistance Program (averaging 1.4 to 1.5 million persons a month under the nutrition assistance grant and higher figures in earlier years under Food Stamps). e Estimated value. Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, National Data Bank, the 1996 Green Book, and U.S. Bureau of the Census,“Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and earlier years.
1970	8,277	NA	4.1	32.6	NA	NA	NA
1971	13,042	NA	6.3	51.0	NA	NA	NA
1972	14,102	NA	6.7	57.7	NA	NA	NA
1973	14,641	NA	6.9	63.7	NA	NA	NA
1974	14,784	NA	6.9	63.2	NA	NA	NA
19754	18,308	NA	7.9	66.2	NA	NA	NA
1976	18,240	9,126	7.7	66.7	NA	13.8	88.8
1977	17,014	NA	7.1	62.7	NA	NA	NA
1978	15,988	NA	6.5	58.9	NA	NA	NA
19795	17,682	NA	7.1	60.9	57.1	NA	NA
1980	21,082	9,493	8.4	65.5	60.7	15.5	85.6
1981	22,430	9,674	9.0	64.6	60.8	15.5	78.4
19826	22,055	9,545	8.8	59.0	56.3	15.3	70.3
19836	23,195	10,783	9.2	61.1	58.5	17.4	78.4
19846	22,384	10,372	8.8	61.7	58.5	16.8	78.2
19856	21,379	9,824	8.3	60.0	56.6	15.8	76.1
19866	20,909	9,846	8.1	59.9	56.2	15.7	76.5
19876	20,583	9,765	7.9	59.2	55.6	15.5	75.4
19886	20,095	9,363	7.6	58.6	55.2	14.8	75.1
19896	20,266	9,429	7.6	59.6	55.6	14.9	74.9
19906	21,547	10,127	8.0	59.7	55.7	15.8	75.4
19916	24,115	11,952	9.0	63.3	59.3	18.4	83.3
19926	26,886	13,349	9.9	66.7	64.0	20.2	87.3
19936	28,422	14,196	10.5	68.6	63.8	21.2	90.3
19946	28,844	14,391	10.5	72.1	66.8	21.2	94.1
19956	27,945	13,860	10.1	73.0	67.6	20.2	94.5
19966	26,870	13,189	9.6	69.9	64.7	19.1	91.2
19976	24,160	11,800e	8.5	64.2	NA	17.0e	83.6e

Table A-15 Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, 1970 – 1997

Fiscal Year	Total Federal Cost		Benefits2 (Federal) [In millions]	Administration1			Average Monthly Benefit per Person
	Current Dollars [In millions]	1997 Dollars3 [In millions]		Federal [In millions]	State & Local [In millions]	Total Cost [In millions]	Current Dollars	1997 Dollars3
1 All Federal administrative costs of the Food Stamp Program and Puerto Rico's block grant are included: Federal matching for the various administrative and employment and training expenses of States and other jurisdictions, and direct Federal administrative costs. Beginning in 1984 the administrative cost of certifying AFDC households for food stamps are shown in the food stamp appropriation. Figures for Federal administrative costs beginning with fiscal year 1989 include only those paid out of the Food Stamp appropriation and the Food Stamp portion of the general appropriation for food program administration. Figures for earlier years include estimates of food stamp related Federal administrative expenses paid out of other Agriculture Department accounts. State and local costs are estimated based on the known Federal shares and represent an estimate of all administrative expenses of participating States (including Puerto Rico). 2 All benefit costs associated with the Food Stamp Program and Puerto Rico's block grant are included. The benefit amounts shown in the table reflect small downward adjustments for overpayments collected from recipients and, beginning in 1989, issued but unredeemed benefits. Over time, the figures reflect both changes in benefit levels and numbers of recipients. 3 Constant dollar adjustments to 1997 level were made using the CPI-U-X1 price index. 4 From 1970 to 1974 total Federal cost includes the cost of the family food assistance program (FFAP) which was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. The FFAP amounts for these years were: $289, $321, $312, $255, and $205 (in millions). 5 The first fiscal year in which benefit and eligibility rules were, by law, nationally uniform and indexed for inflation. 6 The first fiscal year in which food stamps were available nationwide. 7 The fiscal year in which the food stamp purchase requirement was eliminated, on a phased in basis. 8 Beginning 1984 USDA took over from DHHS the administrative cost of certifying public assistance households for food stamps. 9 Includes funding for Puerto Rico's nutrition assistance grant; earlier years include funding for Puerto Rico under the regular food stamp program. Average benefit figures do not reflect the lower benefits in Puerto Rico under its nutrition assistance program. Sources: Budget documents of the U.S. Department Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service and the 1996 Green Book .
1970	8664	3,427	550	27	20	886	9.00	35.60
1971	1,8974	7,184	1,523	53	40	1,937	12.60	47.70
19725	2,1824	7,980	1,797	73	55	2,237	13.50	49.40
1973	2,4664	8,661	2,131	80	60	2,526	14.60	51.30
1974	3,0474	9,857	2,718	124	95	3,142	17.60	56.90
19756	4,624	13,632	4,386	238	180	4,804	21.40	63.10
1976	5,692	15,708	5,327	365	275	5,967	23.90	66.00
1977	5,469	14,051	5,067	402	300	5,769	24.70	63.50
1978	5,573	13,433	5,139	434	325	5,898	26.80	64.60
19797	6,995	15,504	6,480	515	388	7,383	30.60	67.80
1980	9,224	18,379	8,721	503	375	9,599	34.40	68.50
1981.	11,308	20,488	10,630	678	504	11,812	39.50	71.60
19829	11,318	19,159	10,609	709	557	11,875	39.20	66.40
19839	12,733	20,616	11,955	778	612	13,345	43.00	69.60
19849	12,470	19,365	11,499	9718	805	13,275	42.70	66.30
19859	12,599	18,886	11,556	1,043	871	13,470	45.00	67.50
19869	12,528	18,316	11,415	1,113	935	13,463	45.60	66.70
19879	12,539	17,827	11,344	1,195	996	13,535	45.80	65.10
19889	13,289	18,150	11,999	1,290	1,080	14,369	49.80	68.00
19899	13,904	18,122	12,572	1,332	1,101	15,005	51.90	67.60
19909	16,512	20,502	15,090	1,422	1,174	17,686	59.00	73.30
19919	19,765	23,361	18,249	1,516	1,247	21,012	63.90	75.50
19929	23,539	27,003	21,883	1,656	1,375	24,914	68.50	78.60
19939	24,749	27,560	23,033	1,716	1,572	26,321	67.96	75.70
19949	25,600	27,772	23,811	1,789	1,643	27,243	69.01	74.90
19959	25,818	27,251	23,901	1,917	1,748	27,566	71.27	75.20
19969	25,591	26,282	23,607	1,984	1,842	27,433	73.22	75.20
19979	22,778	22,778	20,751	2,026	1,882	24,660	71.27	71.30

Figure A-5. Characteristics of Food Stamp Recipients

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households: Fiscal Year 1996 and earlier years.

---

• The percentage of food stamp households with earnings has stayed in a range of 18 to 23 percent, with an average over the years of 20 percent. Correspondingly, the percentage with gross monthly income below the poverty level has ranged from a low of 87 percent in 1980 to a high of 95 percent in the recession year 1982. During the 1990s, it has stayed almost constant at around 92 percent.
• The percentage of households receiving food stamps with children has also been fairly constant at a little over 60 percent.
• The percentage of food stamp households with public assistance income has ranged from a low of 65 percent in 1980 to a high of 73 percent in the recession year 1990.

Table A-16. Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 1980 - 1996

[In percent]

	Year
	19801	19821	19841	19861	19881	19901	19921	19941	19961
1 Survey was conducted in August in the years 1980-84 and during the summer in the years from 1986 to the present. 2 Public assistance income includes AFDC, SSI, and general assistance. 3 In 1996 female heads of household with children whose spouse is present comprised about 7 percent of all female heads of household with children. 4 Elderly members and heads of household include those age 60 or older. * Less than 0.5 percent. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 1996 and earlier years.
With Gross Monthly Income:
Below the Federal Poverty Levels	87	95	93	93	92	92	92	90	91
Between the Poverty Levels and 130 Percent of the Poverty Levels	10	5	6	6	8	8	8	9	8
Above 130 Percent of Poverty	2	*	1	*	*	*	*	1	1
With Earnings	19	18	19	21	20	19	21	21	23
With Public Assistance Income2	65	69	71	69	72	73	66	69	67
With AFDC/TANF Income	NA	42	42	38	42	43	40	38	37
With SSI Income	18	18	18	18	20	19	19	23	24
With Children	60	58	61	61	61	61	62	61	60
And Female Heads of Household	NA	45	47	48	50	51	51	51	50
With No Spouse Present3	NA	NA	NA	NA	39	37	44	43	43
With Elderly Members4	23	20	22	20	19	18	15	16	16
With Elderly Female Heads of Household4	NA	14	16	15	14	11	9	11	NA
Average Household Size	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.5

Table A-17. Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1997

[Millions of dollars]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997
United States1	$5,067	$10,630	$11,556	$12,572	$21,883	$23,796	$23,607	$20,700
1 Totals include small amounts not allocated to individual states: $6 million in 1977, $26 million in 1985, and $4 million in 1992. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank.
Alabama	$99	$293	$318	$276	$451	$456	$443	$393
Alaska	5	31	25	24	41	53	54	52
Arizona	45	125	121	176	377	418	377	316
Arkansas	66	138	126	130	207	212	225	214
California	333	604	639	747	1,760	2,395	2,559	2,378
Colorado	48	88	94	133	219	224	211	182
Connecticut	45	71	62	53	131	152	175	170
Delaware	26	27	22	19	42	48	95	91
Dist. of Columbia	8	47	40	36	70	86	47	41
Florida	261	502	368	455	1,306	1,324	1,296	1,061
Georgia	9	306	290	302	627	695	27	27
Guam	143	18	18	14	28	22	706	597
Hawaii	35	69	93	74	121	153	195	189
Idaho	285	35	36	37	53	57	1,034	933
Illinois	59	506	713	729	1,070	1,069	330	293
Indiana	29	204	242	185	373	415	141	125
Iowa	10	75	107	97	143	145	61	53
Kansas	15	52	64	80	133	146	135	112
Kentucky	126	268	332	300	430	416	418	372
Louisiana	134	270	365	484	677	642	597	512
Maine	29	69	62	48	109	111	115	103
Maryland	84	171	171	176	316	350	365	320
Massachusetts	147	191	173	154	315	330	294	262
Michigan	132	395	541	537	846	834	774	678
Minnesota	42	84	105	131	234	229	224	192
Mississippi	106	235	264	319	421	397	376	313
Missouri	69	183	212	255	447	482	482	401
Montana	9	23	31	36	52	56	59	55
Nebraska	11	31	44	50	78	79	78	72
Nevada	6	21	22	31	74	88	92	74
New Hampshire	13	27	15	12	45	46	42	35
New Jersey	157	280	260	232	433	486	513	449
New Mexico	40	90	88	100	182	194	200	168
New York	404	875	938	930	1,586	1,945	2,044	1,780
North Carolina	133	272	237	228	461	490	552	478
North Dakota	4	12	16	21	35	34	32	29
Ohio	262	508	697	751	1,102	1,076	944	750
Oklahoma	37	82	134	159	275	305	307	256
Oregon	42	133	142	150	226	241	260	216
Pennsylvania	204	490	547	554	916	1,001	983	865
Puerto Rico	581	879	786	871	973	1,050	1,102	1,134
Rhode Island	18	41	35	33	69	76	78	70
South Carolina	89	212	194	167	297	303	299	281
South Dakota	7	21	26	31	42	41	41	39
Tennessee	134	339	280	312	562	600	545	475
Texas	255	600	701	1,098	2,103	2,320	2,147	1,765
Utah	9	30	40	61	96	94	87	78
Vermont	11	22	20	17	37	44	43	40
Virgin Islands	12	21	23	14	19	23	451	25
Virginia	70	201	189	206	406	448	42	379
Washington	63	135	140	191	344	386	429	387
West Virginia	60	122	159	169	255	261	253	239
Wisconsin	38	99	148	157	236	220	200	158
Wyoming	3	7	15	18	26	27	28	23

Table A-18. Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1997

[In thousands]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997	Percent Change
									1989-93	1993-97
United States	17,014	22,430	21,379	20,266	26,886	28,879	26,870	24,156	40	-15
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank.
Alabama	316	605	588	436	550	545	509	469	29	-16
Alaska	11	32	22	26	38	46	46	45	65	5
Arizona	140	210	206	264	457	512	427	364	85	-26
Arkansas	213	305	253	227	277	283	274	266	25	-7
California	1,345	1,605	1,615	1,776	2,558	3,155	3,143	2,815	61	-2
Colorado	147	175	170	211	260	268	244	217	29	-20
Connecticut	178	175	145	114	202	223	223	210	90	-3
Delaware	26	56	40	30	51	59	58	54	95	-7
Dist. of Columbia	98	101	72	58	82	91	93	90	48	4
Florida	728	957	630	668	1,404	1,474	1,371	1,192	125	-21
Georgia	459	654	567	485	754	830	793	698	67	-14
Guam	22	25	20	13	20	15	18	18	0	41
Hawaii	108	104	99	78	94	115	130	127	32	23
Idaho	33	64	59	61	72	82	80	70	30	-11
Illinois	922	984	1,110	990	1,156	1,189	1,105	1,020	19	-14
Indiana	196	405	406	285	448	518	390	348	74	-30
Iowa	108	163	203	168	192	196	177	161	17	-18
Kansas	62	108	119	128	175	192	172	149	47	-21
Kentucky	394	519	560	447	529	522	486	444	19	-16
Louisiana	425	574	644	725	779	756	670	575	7	-26
Maine	101	140	114	84	133	136	131	124	64	-11
Maryland	255	346	287	249	342	390	375	354	51	-5
Massachusetts	579	437	337	314	429	442	374	340	41	-23
Michigan	635	942	985	874	994	1,031	935	839	17	-18
Minnesota	158	202	228	245	309	318	295	260	29	-18
Mississippi	333	514	495	493	536	511	457	399	9	-26
Missouri	221	378	362	404	549	593	554	478	46	-19
Montana	27	47	58	56	66	71	71	67	26	-5
Nebraska	40	75	94	92	107	111	102	97	23	-14
Nevada	18	37	32	41	80	97	97	82	126	-12
New Hampshire	44	54	28	22	58	62	53	46	176	-24
New Jersey	493	608	464	353	494	545	540	490	50	-8
New Mexico	118	183	157	151	221	244	235	205	62	-16
New York	1,646	1,851	1,834	1,463	1,885	2,154	2,099	1,914	40	-6
North Carolina	428	605	474	390	597	630	631	586	61	-6
North Dakota	15	29	33	39	46	45	40	38	25	-22
Ohio	803	976	1,133	1,068	1,251	1,245	1,045	874	19	-31
Oklahoma	158	206	263	261	346	376	354	322	42	-13
Oregon	153	232	228	213	265	286	288	259	33	-9
Pennsylvania	843	1,071	1,032	916	1,137	1,208	1,124	1,009	29	-15
Puerto Rico	1,472	1,805	1,480	1,460	1,480	1,410	1,330	e 1,306	-1	-9
Rhode Island	79	88	69	57	87	94	91	85	62	-8
South Carolina	280	443	373	272	369	385	358	349	45	-11
South Dakota	26	46	48	50	55	53	49	47	11	-16
Tennessee	392	677	518	500	702	735	638	586	55	-24
Texas	823	1,226	1,263	1,634	2,454	2,726	2,372	2,034	63	-23
Utah	36	65	75	95	123	128	110	98	40	-26
Vermont	46	48	44	34	54	65	56	53	70	-9
Virgin Islands	25	34	32	16	16	20	31	20	8	15
Virginia	240	432	360	333	495	547	538	476	61	-11
Washington	212	271	281	321	431	468	476	442	44	-5
West Virginia	199	252	278	259	310	321	300	287	24	-11
Wisconsin	175	269	363	291	334	330	283	232	16	-31
Wyoming	9	15	27	27	33	34	33	29	25	-16

Table A-19. Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1997

[In percent]

	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997	Percent Change
									1989-93	1993-97
Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of food stamp recipients in each State during the particular fiscal year expressed as a percent of the total resident population as of July 1 of that year. The numerator is from Table A-18. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).
Alabama	8.4	15.4	14.8	10.8	13.3	12.9	11.9	10.9	24	-19
Alaska	2.7	7.7	4.1	4.8	6.4	7.6	7.6	7.4	51	3
Arizona	5.8	7.5	6.5	7.3	11.8	12.3	9.6	8.0	68	-35
Arkansas	9.7	13.3	10.9	9.7	11.6	11.5	10.9	10.5	21	-10
California	6.0	6.6	6.1	6.1	8.3	10.1	9.9	8.7	51	-5
Colorado	5.5	5.9	5.3	6.5	7.5	7.3	6.4	5.6	19	-27
Connecticut	5.8	5.6	4.5	3.5	6.2	6.8	6.8	6.4	90	-3
Delaware	4.5	9.3	6.5	4.5	7.3	8.4	8.0	7.3	84	-12
Dist. of Columbia	14.5	15.9	11.4	9.4	14.1	16.0	17.2	17.1	60	14
Florida	8.2	9.4	5.5	5.3	10.4	10.6	9.5	8.1	107	-26
Georgia	8.8	11.7	9.5	7.6	11.2	11.8	10.8	9.3	55	-20
Hawaii	11.8	10.6	9.5	7.1	8.2	9.8	11.0	10.7	24	21
Idaho	3.8	6.7	5.9	6.1	6.7	7.2	6.7	5.8	17	-19
Illinois	8.1	8.6	9.7	8.7	10.0	10.1	9.3	8.6	16	-15
Indiana	3.6	7.4	7.4	5.2	7.9	9.0	6.7	5.9	69	-32
Iowa	3.7	5.6	7.2	6.1	6.9	6.9	6.2	5.7	15	-19
Kansas	2.7	4.5	4.9	5.2	6.9	7.5	6.7	5.7	44	-23
Kentucky	11.0	14.2	15.2	12.1	14.1	13.7	12.5	11.4	15	-19
Louisiana	10.6	13.4	14.6	17.0	18.2	17.6	15.4	13.2	7	-27
Maine	9.2	12.4	9.8	6.9	10.7	11.0	10.6	10.0	62	-11
Maryland	6.1	8.1	6.5	5.3	7.0	7.8	7.4	7.0	44	-8
Massachusetts	10.1	7.6	5.7	5.2	7.2	7.3	6.1	5.5	41	-25
Michigan	6.9	10.2	10.8	9.4	10.5	10.8	9.6	8.6	14	-20
Minnesota	4.0	4.9	5.5	5.7	6.9	7.0	6.3	5.6	24	-21
Mississippi	13.5	20.3	19.1	19.1	20.5	19.2	16.9	14.6	6	-28
Missouri	4.5	7.7	7.2	7.9	10.6	11.2	10.3	8.8	42	-22
Montana	3.6	5.9	7.1	7.0	8.1	8.3	8.1	7.6	20	-9
Nebraska	2.6	4.7	5.9	5.9	6.7	6.8	6.2	5.9	20	-17
Nevada	2.7	4.4	3.4	3.6	6.0	6.6	6.0	4.9	86	-27
New Hampshire	5.1	5.8	2.8	2.0	5.2	5.4	4.6	3.9	172	-27
New Jersey	6.7	8.2	6.1	4.6	6.3	6.9	6.8	6.1	48	-10
New Mexico	9.7	13.7	10.9	10.0	14.0	14.7	13.7	11.8	51	-22
New York	9.2	10.5	10.3	8.1	10.4	11.9	11.6	10.6	39	-6
North Carolina	7.5	10.2	7.6	5.9	8.7	8.9	8.6	7.9	52	-12
North Dakota	2.4	4.4	4.9	6.0	7.2	7.1	6.2	5.9	27	-22
Ohio	7.5	9.1	10.6	9.9	11.4	11.2	9.4	7.8	16	-32
Oklahoma	5.5	6.7	8.0	8.3	10.8	11.6	10.7	9.7	39	-15
Oregon	6.3	8.7	8.5	7.6	8.9	9.3	9.0	8.0	22	-14
Pennsylvania	7.1	9.0	8.8	7.7	9.5	10.0	9.3	8.4	28	-15
Rhode Island	8.3	9.3	7.2	5.7	8.7	9.4	9.2	8.6	63	-7
South Carolina	9.4	13.9	11.3	7.9	10.3	10.5	9.6	9.3	38	-15
South Dakota	3.8	6.6	6.9	7.2	7.6	7.3	6.6	6.4	7	-18
Tennessee	8.9	14.6	11.0	10.3	14.0	14.2	12.0	10.9	48	-28
Texas	6.2	8.3	7.8	9.7	13.9	14.8	12.4	10.5	51	-29
Utah	2.7	4.3	4.6	5.6	6.8	6.6	5.5	4.8	27	-32
Vermont	9.4	9.4	8.2	6.1	9.4	11.1	9.6	9.0	65	-11
Virginia	4.6	7.9	6.3	5.4	7.8	8.4	8.1	7.1	52	-15
Washington	5.6	6.4	6.4	6.8	8.4	8.8	8.6	7.9	30	-11
West Virginia	10.4	12.9	14.6	14.3	17.1	17.7	16.5	15.8	24	-11
Wisconsin	3.8	5.7	7.6	6.0	6.7	6.5	5.5	4.5	12	-33
Wyoming	2.1	3.0	5.4	6.0	7.2	7.2	6.9	6.0	23	-18
United States	7.1	9.0	8.3	7.6	9.9	10.5	9.6	8.5	37	-18

Supplemental Security Income

The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Program is a means tested, federally administered income assistance program authorized by title XVI of the Social Security Act. Established in 1972 (Public Law 92-603) and begun in 1974, SSI provides monthly cash payments in accordance with uniform, nationwide eligibility requirements to needy aged, blind and disabled persons. To qualify for SSI payments, a person must satisfy the program criteria for age, blindness or disability. Children may qualify for SSI if they are under age 18, unmarried, and meet the applicable SSI disability or blindness, income and resource requirements. Individuals and couples are eligible for SSI if their countable incomes fall below the Federal maximum monthly SSI benefit levels, which were $484 for an individual and $726 for a couple in fiscal year 1997. SSI eligibility is restricted to qualified persons who have countable resources/assets of not more than $2,000, or $3,000 for a couple.

SSI law requires that SSI applicants file for all other money benefits for which they may be entitled. Since its inception, SSI has been viewed as the “program of last resort”-- after evaluating all other income, SSI pays what is necessary to bring an individual to the statutorily prescribed income “floor.” (The Social Security Administration, which administers the SSI program, works with recipients and helps them get any other benefits for which they are eligible.) As of December 1996, 37 percent of all SSI recipients also received Social Security benefits; Social Security benefits are the single highest source of income for SSI recipients.

No individual could receive both SSI payments and AFDC benefits; if eligible for both, the individual was required to choose which benefit to receive. Generally, the AFDC agency encouraged individuals to file for SSI and, once the SSI payments had started, the individual was removed from the AFDC filing unit. The PRWORA does not specifically prohibit an individual’s receipt of both TANF benefits and SSI; states have complete authority to set TANF eligibility standards and benefit levels.

Except in California, which converted food stamp benefits to cash that is included in the State supplementary payment, SSI recipients may be eligible to receive food stamps. If all household members receive SSI, they do not need to meet the Food Stamp Program financial eligibility standards to participate in the program because they are categorically eligible. If SSI beneficiaries live in households where other household members do not receive SSI benefits, the household must meet the net income eligibility standard of the Food Stamp Program to be eligible for food stamp benefits.

Recent Legislative Changes. Several legislative changes made in the 104th Congress are likely to affect Supplemental Security Income (SSI) participation and expenditures. Public Law 104-121, the Contract with America Advancement Act of 1996, prohibits SSI eligibility to individuals whose drug addiction and/or alcoholism (DAA) is a contributing factor material to the finding of disability. This provision applied to individuals who filed for benefits on or after the date of enactment (March 29, 1996) and to individuals whose claims were finally adjudicated on or after the date of enactment. It applied to current beneficiaries on January 1, 1997.

The PRWORA made several changes designed to maintain the SSI program’s goal of providing benefits for severely disabled children while preventing children without serious impairments from receiving benefits. First, the act replaced the former law “comparable severity” test with a new definition of childhood disability based on a medically determinable physical or mental impairment. Second, it discontinued use of the Individualized Functional Assessment (IFA) which authorized subjective judgment to determine children’s eligibility for SSI. Third, it eliminated references to “maladaptive behavior” in the Listings of Impairments (among medical criteria for evaluation of mental and emotional disorders in the domain of personal/behavioral function). The latter two provisions were effective for all new and pending applications upon enactment (August 22, 1996). Current beneficiaries receiving benefits due to an IFA or maladaptive behavior listing received notice no later than January 1, 1997, that their benefits might end when their case is redetermined. All currently receiving benefits are subject to redetermination using the new eligibility criteria by February 28, 1998 (per P.L. 105-33, enacted August 5, 1997).

Title IV of PRWORA also made significant changes in the eligibility of noncitizens for SSI benefits. Essentially, qualified aliens (including legal immigrants) are barred from SSI. Some of the restrictions were subsequently moderated, most notably by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-33), which grandfathered immigrants who were receiving SSI at the time of enactment of the PRWORA.

SSI Program Data. The following six tables and two figures provide SSI program data:

• Tables A-20 through A-23 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the SSI program;
• Figures A-6 and A-7 present some demographic characteristics of the SSI caseload; and
• Tables A-24 through A-26 present some state-by-state trend data on the SSI program through fiscal year 1996.

Table A-20 presents information on the number of persons receiving SSI payments in December of each year from 1974 through 1997. Data on the total number of SSI recipients are shown, as well as recipients by eligibility category (aged, blind and disabled) and by type of recipient (child, adult age 18-64, and adult age 65 or older). From 1990 to 1994, growth in the total number of beneficiaries averaged 370 thousand per year, almost 6.5 percent per year. The increase slowed in 1995 and 1996, with the number of recipients peaking at 6.6 million beneficiaries in December 1996. In 1997 growth stopped and the number of recipients declined slightly, to 6.5 million in December 1997.

Recent trends in the changing composition of the SSI caseload continued through 1997, as shown in Table A-22. The number of aged beneficiaries continued to decline, both as an absolute number (from a high of 2.3 million persons in December 1975 to less than 1.4 million in December 1997) and as a proportion of the SSI caseload. The number of aged, as a percentage of all SSI participants, has dropped steadily, from 60.6 percent in December 1974 to 31.6 percent in December 1997. This relative decline is a result of very little change in the number of aged participants between December 1990 and December 1997 while the number of persons 18 to 64 receiving benefits grew by 45 percent during the same time period. Moreover, the number of children increased by 177 percent, from 340 thousand to 943 thousand, bringing them from 7 percent of the SSI caseload in 1990 to 15 percent in 1997. Many analysts attribute this growth to outreach activities, the Supreme Court decision in the Zebley case⁴, expansion of the medical impairment category, and reduction in reviews of continuing eligibility.

Table A-20. Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments 1974 – 1997

[In thousands]

Date	Total	Eligibility Category				Type of Recipient
		Aged	Blind and Disabled			Children1	Adults
			Total	Blind	Disabled		Age 18-64	65 or Older
1 Includes students 18-21; there were 50,661 students 18-21 in December 1997. Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).
Dec 1974	3,996	2,286	1,710	75	1,636	71	1,503	2,422
Dec 1975	4,314	2,307	2,007	74	1,933	128	1,678	2,508
Dec 1976	4,236	2,148	2,088	76	2,012	153	1,686	2,397
Dec 1977	4,238	2,051	2,187	77	2,109	175	1,709	2,353
Dec 1978	4,217	1,968	2,249	77	2,172	197	1,716	2,304
Dec 1979	4,150	1,872	2,278	77	2,201	212	1,692	2,246
Dec 1980	4,142	1,808	2,334	78	2,256	229	1,693	2,221
Dec 1981	4,019	1,678	2,341	79	2,262	230	1,668	2,121
Dec 1982	3,858	1,549	2,309	77	2,231	229	1,618	2,011
Dec 1983	3,901	1,515	2,386	79	2,307	236	1,662	2,003
Dec 1984	4,029	1,530	2,499	81	2,419	249	1,743	2,037
Dec 1985	4,138	1,504	2,634	82	2,551	265	1,841	2,031
Dec 1986	4,269	1,473	2,796	83	2,713	280	1,972	2,018
Dec 1987	4,385	1,455	2,930	83	2,846	289	2,081	2,015
Dec 1988	4,464	1,433	3,030	83	2,948	290	2,168	2,006
Dec 1989	4,593	1,439	3,154	83	3,071	296	2,271	2,026
Dec 1990	4,817	1,454	3,363	84	3,279	340	2,418	2,059
Dec 1991	5,118	1,465	3,654	85	3,569	439	2,600	2,080
Dec 1992	5,566	1,471	4,095	85	4,010	624	2,843	2,100
Dec 1993	5,984	1,475	4,509	85	4,424	771	3,101	2,113
Dec 1994	6,296	1,466	4,830	85	4,745	893	3,284	2,119
Dec 1995	6,514	1,446	5,068	84	4,984	974	3,425	2,115
Dec 1996	6,614	1,413	5,201	82	5,119	1,018	3,506	2,090
Dec 1997	6,495	1,362	5,133	81	5,052	943	3,499	2,054

Table A-21. Federal and State SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 1997 ¹

[In millions of current and 1997 dollars]

Calender Year	Total Benefits		Federal Payments	State Supplementation			Administrative Costs (fiscal year)
	19972 Dollars	Current Dollars		Total	Federally Administered	State Administered
1 Payments and adjustments during the respective year but not necessarily accrued for that year. 2 Data adjusted for inflation by ASPE using the CPI-U-X1. Source: Social Security Administration, Office of SSI, and Office of Budget, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, 1998 (available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).
1974	$16,222	$5,246	$3,833	$1,413	$1,264	$149	$285
1975	16,787	5,878	4,314	1,565	1,403	162	399
1976	16,390	6,066	4,512	1,554	1,388	166	500
1977	16,014	6,306	4,703	1,603	1,431	172	NA
1978	15,579	6,552	4,881	1,671	1,491	180	539
1979	15,345	7,075	5,279	1,797	1,590	207	610
1980	15,486	7,941	5,866	2,074	1,848	226	668
1981	15,307	8,593	6,518	2,076	1,839	237	718
1982	15,078	8,981	6,907	2,074	1,798	276	779
1983	15,154	9,404	7,423	1,982	1,711	270	830
1984	16,022	10,372	8,281	2,091	1,792	299	864
1985	16,498	11,060	8,777	2,283	1,973	311	953
1986	17,692	12,081	9,498	2,583	2,243	340	1,022
1987	18,298	12,951	10,029	2,922	2,563	359	976
1988	18,704	13,786	10,734	3,052	2,671	381	975
1989	19,389	14,980	11,606	3,374	2,955	419	1,051
1990	20,383	16,599	12,894	3,705	3,239	466	1,075
1991	21,829	18,524	14,765	3,759	3,231	529	1,257
1992	25,433	22,233	18,247	3,986	3,435	550	1,538
1993	27,276	24,557	20,722	3,835	3,270	566	1,467
1994	28,024	25,877	22,175	3,701	3,116	585	1,775
1995	29,096	27,628	23,919	3,708	3,118	590	1,973
1996	29,453	28,792	25,265	3,527	2,988	539	1,949
1997	29,052	29,052	25,457	3,595	2,913	682	2,055

Table A-22. Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 1997

Calender Year	Total1		Federal Payments	State Supplementation
	1997 Dollars	Current Dollars		Total	Federally Administered	State Administered
1974	$440	$135	$108	$64	$71	$35
1975	313	112	92	66	69	45
1980	297	158	133	89	91	76
1984	323	211	187	93	93	93
1985	324	219	193	99	99	102
1986	338	232	202	107	108	101
1987	338	242	208	117	118	110
1988	339	253	219	118	118	118
1989	342	267	230	126	126	127
1990	341	283	244	132	131	136
1991	347	297	260	125	122	143
1992	373	328	292	124	121	147
1993	373	337	306	112	107	150
1994	364	338	310	105	99	152
1995	368	350	322	110	103	164
1996	366	359	332	108	103	145
1997	369	369	342	99	102	86

Calender Year	Number of PersonsReceiving Payments (in thousands)
	Total	Federal	State Supplementation
			Total	Federally Administered	State Administered
1 Total is a weighted average of the Federal plus State average benefit, the Federal-only average benefit, and Stateonly average benefit. Note: The numerators for these averages are given in Table A-21. Averages were computed by DHHS. Data adjusted for inflation using the monthly values of the CPI-U-X1 index. Source: Number of persons receiving payments obtained from Social Security Administration, Office of SSI, and Office of Budget.
Jan1974	3,249	2,956	1,839	1,480	358
Dec1975	4,360	3,893	1,987	1,684	303
Dec1980	4,194	3,682	1,934	1,685	249
Dec1984	4,094	3,699	1,875	1,607	268
Dec1985	4,200	3,799	1,916	1,661	255
Dec1986	4,347	3,922	2,003	1,723	279
Dec1987	4,458	4,019	2,079	1,807	272
Dec1988	4,541	4,089	2,155	1,885	270
Dec1989	4,673	4,206	2,224	1,950	275
Dec1990	4,888	4,412	2,344	2,058	286
Dec1991	5,200	4,730	2,512	2,204	308
Dec1992	5,647	5,202	2,684	2,372	313
Dec1993	6,065	5,636	2,850	2,536	314
Dec1994	6,377	5,965	2,950	2,628	322
Dec1995	6,576	6,194	2,817	2,518	300
Dec1996	6,677	6,326	2,732	2,421	310
Dec1997	6,565	6,212	3,029	2,372	657

Table A-23. SSI Participation Rates, 1974 - 1997

[In percent]

	All Recipients as a Percent Of Total Population1	Child Recipients as a Percent of All Children1	Elderly Recipients (Persons 65 & Older) as a Percent of
			All Persons 65 & Older1	All Elderly Poor2	Pretransfer Elderly Poor3
1 Population numbers used for the denominators are Census resident population estimates adjusted to the December date by averaging the July 1 population of the current year with the July 1 population of the following year; see Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106. 2 For the number of persons (65 years of age and older living in poverty) used as the denominator, see Current Population Reports, Series P60-198. 3 The pretransfer poverty population used as the denominator is the number of all elderly persons living in elderly-only units whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Notes: Numerators for these ratios are from Table A-20. Rates computed by DHHS. Source: 1994 Green Book and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1996," Current Population Reports, Series P60-198, and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).
Dec 1974	1.9	0.1	10.8	78.5	NA
Dec 1975	2.0	0.2	10.9	75.6	NA
Dec 1976	1.9	0.2	10.2	72.4	NA
Dec 1977	1.9	0.3	9.7	74.1	NA
Dec 1978	1.9	0.3	9.3	71.5	NA
Dec 1979	1.8	0.3	8.8	61.3	66.8
Dec 1980	1.8	0.4	8.6	57.5	64.7
Dec 1981	1.7	0.4	8.0	55.0	63.3
Dec 1982	1.7	0.4	7.4	53.6	62.3
Dec 1983	1.7	0.4	7.3	55.2	61.9
Dec 1984	1.7	0.4	7.2	61.2	66.3
Dec 1985	1.7	0.4	7.1	58.7	64.5
Dec 1986	1.8	0.4	6.9	57.9	63.4
Dec 1987	1.8	0.5	6.7	56.5	64.7
Dec 1988	1.8	0.5	6.6	57.6	64.3
Dec 1989	1.9	0.5	6.5	60.3	64.6
Dec 1990	1.9	0.5	6.5	56.3	63.3
Dec 1991	2.0	0.7	6.5	55.0	61.1
Dec 1992	2.2	0.9	6.5	53.5	59.8
Dec 1993	2.3	1.1	6.4	56.3	63.3
Dec 1994	2.4	1.3	6.4	57.9	65.6
Dec 1995	2.5	1.4	6.4	63.7	71.4
Dec 1996	2.5	1.5	6.2	61.0	69.3
Dec 1997	2.4	1.3	6.0	60.8	NA

Figure A-6. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 – 1997

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

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• The proportion of persons receiving SSI who are 65 years of age or older (as a percent of all SSI recipients) has decreased steadily from a high of 61 percent in 1974 to a low of 32 percent in 1997 essentially cutting the proportion of elderly recipients in half. The actual number who are 65 or older has declined from 2.5 million in 1975 to a little less than 2.1 million today.
• The percentage of child recipients increased two and one half times during the 1970s, going from 2 percent in 1974 to 5 percent by the end of the decade. During the 1980s, it remained fairly constant at about 6 percent. In the 1990s, the share of child recipients increased rapidly, more than doubling to 15 percent.
• The percentage of persons receiving SSI between the ages of 18 and 64 has increased steadily over time, rising from 38 percent in 1974 to 54 percent in 1997.

Figure A-7. Number and Percentage Distribution of Persons Age 15 or Older with Supplemental Security Income, by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1985 & 1995

(In thousands)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Money Income in the United States: 1995," Current Population Reports, Series P60-193 and earlier years.

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Table A-24. Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments And State Supplementary Payments, Fiscal 1997

(In Thousands)

State	Total1	Total Federal2	Federal SSI2	State Supplementation
				Federally Administered2	State Administrated
Other: N. Mariana Islands	2,518	2,518	2,518	–	–
Total	$29,052,091	$28,370,538	$25,457,355	$2,913,281	$681,521
1 Includes $463,000 for unknown States. Federal SSI includes $643,000 for unknown States. 2 The sum of federally administered State supplementation payments exceeds the total by $214,000. This represents refunds of State payments that had not yet been credited to States. 3 Data estimated. 4 Represents recovered State payments. Administration changed from Federal to State: Maine in April 1996, Wisconsin in January 1996. Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, 1998.
Alabama	634,096	633,109	633,109	–	987
Alaska	43,052	30,080	30,080	–	12,972 3
Arizona	316,054	315,742	315,742	–	312
Arkansas	335,331	335,331	335,331	–	–
California	5,512,788	5,512,788	3,593,495	1,919,293	–
Colorado	296,154	229,554	229,554	–	66,600
Connecticut	288,158	195,349	195,349	–	92,809
Delaware	45,500	45,500	44,626	874	–
District of Columbia	84,906	84,906	82,163	2,743	–
Florida	1,467,042	1,448,658	1,448,650	8	18,384
Georgia	744,478	744,475	744,478	–	–
Hawaii	88,669	88,669	77,363	11,306	–
Idaho	78,965	68,549	68,549	–	10,416
Illinois	1,174,134	1,144,974	1,144,974	–	29,160
Indiana	373,244	369,668	369,668	–	3,576
Iowa	164,641	153,316	150,311	3,005	11,325
Kansas	146,264	146,264	146,264	–	–
Kentucky	692,039	676,463	676,463	–	15,576
Louisiana	728,659	728,116	728,116	–	543
Maine	100,768	100,064	100,122	-58 4	704
Maryland	370,584	363,907	363,896	11	6,677
Massachusetts	740,252	740,252	579,728	160,524	–
Michigan	949,061	945,255	917,569	27,686	3,806
Minnesota	306,218	252,921	252,921	–	53,297 3
Mississippi	517,694	517,694	517,694	–	–
Missouri	477,882	452,689	452,689	–	25,193
Montana	54,344	54,344	53,512	832	–
Nebraska	87,418	81,219	81,219	–	6,199
Nevada	88,176	88,176	83,915	4,261	–
New Hampshire	54,651	43,563	43,563	–	11,088
New Jersey	627,617	627,617	550,794	76,823	–
New Mexico	177,662	177,394	177,394	–	268
New York	2,931,527	2,931,527	2,408,404	523,123	–
North Carolina	791,473	698,905	698,905	–	92,568
North Dakota	31,722	29,806	29,806	–	1,916 3
Ohio	1,111,237	1,111,237	1,111,235	2	–
Oklahoma	320,881	283,469	283,469	–	37,412
Oregon	218,164	197,990	197,990	–	20,174 3
Pennsylvania	1,235,472	1,235,472	1,109,806	125,666	–
Rhode Island	109,271	109,271	89,628	19,643	–
South Carolina	423,542	410,499	410,499	–	13,043
South Dakota	50,840	48,936	48,929	7	1,904
Tennessee	657,844	657,844	657,844	–	–
Texas	1,491,309	1,491,309	1,491,309	–	–
Utah	85,860	85,860	85,801	59	–
Vermont	50,122	50,122	40,553	9,569	–
Virginia	526,385	507,128	507,128	–	19,257
Washington	432,129	431,886	403,459	28,427	243
West Virginia	296,853	296,853	296,853	–	–
Wisconsin	494,557	370,147	370,555	-408 4	124,410
Wyoming	23,421	22,724	22,724	–	697

Table A-25. SSI Recipiency Rates by State And Program Type for 1979 and 1997

[In percent]

	Total Recipiency Rate			Rate for Adults 18-84			Rate for Adults 65 & Over
	1979	1997	Percent Change 1979-97	1979	1997	Percent Change 1979-97	1979	1997	Percent Change 1979-97
Total	1.85	2.43	31.2	1.26	2.17	72.3	8.98	6.03	-32.9
Note: Recipiency rates are the ratios of the number of SSI recipients (in the respective age groups) as of the month of December to the population in the respective age group as of the the month of July; calculations by DHHS. Source: Social Security Administration and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).
Alabama	3.55	3.78	6.5	1.83	3.20	74.9	21.01	9.28	-55.8
Alaska	0.77	1.22	58.7	0.54	1.22	126.4	14.04	5.45	-61.2
Arizona	1.11	1.68	51.0	0.89	1.62	82.4	4.98	3.47	-30.3
Arkansas	3.50	3.59	2.5	1.87	3.07	64.4	17.05	8.12	-52.4
California	3.02	3.17	5.0	2.05	2.49	21.7	16.43	12.67	-22.9
Colorado	1.10	1.45	31.9	0.77	1.37	77.5	6.68	3.55	-46.9
Connecticut	0.75	1.41	88.3	0.63	1.45	130.5	2.70	2.53	-6.4
Delaware	1.19	1.56	31.3	0.94	1.41	50.5	5.43	2.69	-50.5
District of Columbia	2.28	3.75	64.5	1.92	3.32	72.9	8.56	7.48	-12.6
Florida	1.78	2.41	35.4	1.14	1.91	67.9	6.21	4.92	-20.8
Georgia	2.87	2.66	-7.2	1.89	2.24	18.7	17.73	8.84	-50.2
Hawaii	1.05	1.64	56.0	0.69	1.27	84.7	7.57	5.84	-22.9
Idaho	0.79	1.41	78.0	0.64	1.50	134.8	3.78	2.21	-41.5
Illinois	1.08	2.12	96.7	0.95	2.13	124.1	4.25	3.89	-8.5
Indiana	0.75	1.51	101.3	0.61	1.56	155.6	3.32	1.99	-40.2
Iowa	0.89	1.43	60.5	0.62	1.55	150.0	3.50	2.00	-42.9
Kansas	0.89	1.40	57.2	0.63	1.45	129.7	3.47	2.04	-41.2
Kentucky	2.54	4.29	69.0	1.79	4.33	141.7	12.54	8.16	-34.9
Louisiana	3.35	4.03	20.3	2.03	3.56	75.3	20.14	9.87	-51.0
Maine	1.95	2.27	16.4	1.39	2.44	75.4	8.58	3.91	-54.4
Maryland	1.15	1.67	45.3	0.94	1.46	55.1	5.40	4.29	-20.5
Massachusetts	2.24	2.75	22.9	1.28	2.68	109.1	10.80	5.88	-45.5
Michigan	1.26	2.14	69.8	1.07	2.20	106.0	5.85	3.18	-45.6
Minnesota	0.81	1.34	65.0	0.55	1.33	141.1	3.71	2.59	-30.1
Mississippi	4.49	4.98	10.9	2.42	4.24	75.4	26.01	13.65	-47.5
Missouri	1.76	2.08	18.3	1.10	2.11	91.7	7.89	3.55	-55.0
Montana	0.89	1.56	75.8	0.72	1.69	135.3	3.79	2.32	-38.9
Nebraska	0.88	1.27	44.5	0.64	1.31	104.3	3.38	1.97	-41.7
Nevada	0.84	1.33	58.0	0.53	1.16	118.9	5.87	3.48	-40.8
New Hampshire	0.58	0.95	63.2	0.44	1.00	127.5	2.53	1.44	-42.9
New Jersey	1.14	1.79	57.0	0.86	1.50	74.1	4.69	4.48	-4.4
New Mexico	1.97	2.62	33.1	1.37	2.35	71.2	12.36	7.88	-36.2
New York	2.12	3.30	55.5	1.59	2.78	75.1	8.26	8.88	7.4
North Carolina	2.40	2.60	8.4	1.58	2.14	35.4	13.60	7.04	-48.3
North Dakota	0.99	1.34	35.8	0.57	1.30	128.8	5.05	2.74	-45.7
Ohio	1.11	2.21	98.9	0.99	2.35	137.6	4.17	2.60	-37.6
Oklahoma	2.32	2.22	-4.1	1.33	2.05	54.4	11.62	4.93	-57.6
Oregon	0.86	1.48	71.9	0.70	1.52	117.8	3.28	2.57	-21.6
Pennsylvania	1.40	2.24	60.1	1.12	2.24	100.2	4.96	3.52	-29.1
Rhode Island	1.59	2.56	61.2	1.08	2.53	133.8	6.43	4.79	-25.5
South Carolina	2.69	2.92	8.5	1.78	2.47	38.9	16.96	7.75	-54.3
South Dakota	1.14	1.79	56.6	0.72	1.69	135.0	4.99	3.35	-32.8
Tennessee	2.86	3.20	11.9	1.87	2.98	59.4	14.77	7.45	-49.6
Texas	1.89	2.09	10.8	0.95	1.61	69.1	12.69	8.46	-33.4
Utah	0.55	0.99	79.3	0.51	1.08	111.5	3.03	1.98	-34.7
Vermont	1.77	2.16	22.0	1.31	2.19	67.0	8.08	4.64	-42.6
Virginia	1.50	1.94	29.6	1.02	1.61	57.7	8.52	5.37	-37.0
Washington	1.16	1.68	45.2	0.98	1.74	77.9	4.83	3.38	-30.1
West Virginia	2.13	3.82	79.3	1.86	4.19	125.1	7.95	5.21	-34.5
Wisconsin	1.44	1.75	21.7	0.96	1.73	80.6	6.54	2.65	-59.4
Wyoming	0.42	1.20	185.9	0.29	1.29	346.1	2.74	1.79	-34.5

Table A-26. SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 – 1997

[In percent]

	1975	1985	1990	1992	19942	19962	19972
Total1	2.00	1.74	1.94	2.11	2.42	2.49	2.43
1 The number of SSI recipients used to calculate the total recipiency rate includes a certain number of recipients whose State is unknown. For 1975, 1985, 1990, and 1992,, the numbers of unknown (in thousands) were 256, 14, 0, and 71 respectively. 2 For 1975-92 the percentages are calculated as the average number of monthly SSI recipients over the total population of each State in July of that year. For 1994-1997 the number of recipients is from the month of December; calculations by DHHS. Source: Social Security Administration and Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).
Alabama	3.98	3.29	3.29	3.43	3.83	3.91	3.78
Alaska	0.81	0.65	0.84	0.90	1.05	1.21	1.22
Arizona	1.24	1.04	1.22	1.42	1.68	1.71	1.68
Arkansas	4.09	3.14	3.23	3.47	3.83	3.76	3.59
California	3.09	2.59	2.93	3.10	3.23	3.28	3.17
Colorado	1.37	0.93	1.14	1.29	1.49	1.50	1.45
Connecticut	0.76	0.83	0.98	1.10	1.30	1.41	1.41
Delaware	1.19	1.21	1.21	1.27	1.45	1.58	1.56
District of Columbia	2.23	2.51	2.67	3.00	3.48	3.73	3.75
Florida	1.86	1.62	1.71	1.90	2.27	2.45	2.41
Georgia	3.27	2.56	2.46	2.55	2.75	2.73	2.66
Hawaii	1.08	1.08	1.25	1.30	1.53	1.65	1.64
Idaho	1.06	0.84	1.03	1.21	1.39	1.46	1.41
Illinois	1.22	1.18	1.55	1.78	2.21	2.27	2.12
Indiana	0.83	0.87	1.09	1.26	1.49	1.55	1.51
Iowa	1.00	0.96	1.18	1.29	1.44	1.47	1.43
Kansas	1.05	0.87	0.99	1.14	1.39	1.49	1.40
Kentucky	2.83	2.65	3.11	3.42	4.07	4.38	4.29
Louisiana	3.90	2.87	3.15	3.49	4.14	4.19	4.03
Maine	2.31	1.89	1.93	2.03	2.38	2.24	2.27
Maryland	1.17	1.16	1.25	1.35	1.57	1.67	1.67
Massachusetts	2.30	1.91	1.98	2.23	2.60	2.72	2.75
Michigan	1.31	1.35	1.54	1.71	2.18	2.23	2.14
Minnesota	1.00	0.78	0.92	1.05	1.30	1.37	1.34
Mississippi	5.21	4.28	4.42	4.68	5.23	5.20	4.98
Missouri	2.10	1.58	1.66	1.83	2.08	2.17	2.08
Montana	1.12	0.92	1.25	1.38	1.55	1.62	1.56
Nebraska	1.06	0.88	0.99	1.09	1.26	1.32	1.27
Nevada	1.00	0.85	0.95	1.04	1.30	1.37	1.33
New Hampshire	0.67	0.62	0.62	0.71	0.85	0.95	0.95
New Jersey	1.11	1.23	1.36	1.52	1.78	1.82	1.79
New Mexico	2.29	1.83	2.08	2.25	2.58	2.67	2.62
New York	2.24	2.00	2.31	2.60	3.10	3.33	3.30
North Carolina	2.71	2.21	2.24	2.36	2.58	2.66	2.60
North Dakota	1.25	0.96	1.17	1.30	1.39	1.38	1.34
Ohio	1.22	1.19	1.44	1.63	2.12	2.27	2.21
Oklahoma	3.03	1.81	1.92	2.02	2.22	2.28	2.22
Oregon	1.12	0.95	1.11	1.24	1.47	1.51	1.48
Pennsylvania	1.24	1.39	1.60	1.77	2.09	2.24	2.24
Rhode Island	1.72	1.62	1.74	1.91	2.29	2.55	2.56
South Carolina	2.84	2.60	2.59	2.67	2.96	3.03	2.92
South Dakota	1.32	1.19	1.45	1.62	1.83	1.88	1.79
Tennessee	3.24	2.71	2.87	3.06	3.37	3.36	3.20
Texas	2.23	1.57	1.73	1.87	2.12	2.15	2.09
Utah	0.76	0.53	0.73	0.84	1.04	1.05	0.99
Vermont	1.93	1.76	1.79	1.99	2.19	2.19	2.16
Virginia	1.53	1.49	1.54	1.67	1.91	2.00	1.94
Washington	1.46	1.09	1.27	1.39	1.64	1.71	1.68
West Virginia	2.37	2.24	2.63	2.91	3.53	3.82	3.82
Wisconsin	1.44	1.50	1.75	1.88	2.16	1.84	1.75
Wyoming	0.67	0.45	0.76	0.92	1.16	1.22	1.20

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¹ States also have the option of continuing TANF benefits for immigrants who arrived before the bill’s enactment. Only Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina have indicated that they will not be continuing benefits for these aliens.

² Alternative programs are offered in Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa.

³ Some of the decline in food stamp participation can be attributed to eligibility changes made in the 1996 welfare law, most notably the elimination of eligibility for most legal immigrants and for many childless adults aged 18-50. By April 1, 1997, many states began removing legal immigrants who were receiving food stamps on August 22, 1996. Most states removed at least a portion of the childless 18-50 year olds on or around March 1, 1997.

⁴ On February 20, 1990, the Supreme Court ruled that the individual functional assessment (or a residual functional capacity assessment) applied to adults whose condition did not meet or equal a listing of medical impairments to determine eligibility should also be applied to children whose condition did not meet or equal the medical listing of impairments. A GAO study estimated that 87,000 children were added to the SSI caseload after the individual functional assessments for children were initiated.

Appendix B. Poverty Data

Figure B-1. The Poverty Gap ¹ and Reductions in the Gap from Cash and Non-Cash Transfers for All Persons, 1979 - 1996

¹ The poverty gap denotes the amount of funds needed to bring all those below poverty up to the poverty threshold; as measured here the gap is the difference between the poverty threshold and cash income plus all social insurance (including social security benefits). Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is imputed. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit which is always positive whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment.

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.

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Table B-1. The Poverty Gap ¹ and Reductions in the Gap from Cash and Non-Cash Transfers for All Persons, 1979 - 1996

(In billions of constant 1996 dollars)

	1979	1982	1985	1988	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
1 The poverty gap denotes the amount of funds needed to bring all those below poverty up to the poverty threshold; as measured here the gap is the difference between the poverty threshold and cash income plus all social insurance (including social security benefits). Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is imputed. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit which is always positive whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.
Poverty Gap After:
Cash Income plus All Social Insurance	73.3	94.6	94.3	92.5	108.6	118.1	113.6	106.0	106.6
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	51.0	70.8	69.7	69.3	82.6	89.1	85.4	80.5	81.5
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	39.9	56.2	55.1	53.8	63.1	68.1	65.4	62.4	63.3
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	40.5	58.2	57.5	54.9	63.6	67.5	63.7	60.1	60.4
Reduction in Poverty Gap Due To:
Means-Tested Cash	22.3	23.7	24.6	23.2	26.1	29.0	28.1	25.5	25.0
Food and Housing Benefits	11.1	14.6	14.6	15.5	19.4	21.0	20.0	18.2	18.3
EITC and Federal Taxes	-0.6	-2.0	-2.3	-1.1	-0.5	0.6	1.7	2.3	2.9
Total Reductions	32.8	36.4	36.8	37.6	45.0	50.6	49.9	45.9	46.2
Percent Reduction in Gap Due To:
Means-Tested Cash	30.5	25.1	26.1	25.1	24.0	24.6	24.8	24.0	23.5
Food and Housing Benefits	15.1	15.5	15.5	16.7	17.9	17.8	17.6	17.1	17.1
EITC and Federal Taxes	-0.9	-2.1	-2.4	-1.2	-0.5	0.5	1.5	2.2	2.7
Total Reductions	44.7	38.5	39.1	40.6	41.4	42.9	44.0	43.3	43.3

Figure B-2. The Poverty Gap ¹ and Reductions in the Gap from Cash & Non-Cash Transfers for Persons in Families with Children Under 18 Years, 1979 - 1996

(In billions of constant 1996 dollars)

¹ The poverty gap denotes the amount of funds needed to bring all those below poverty up to the poverty threshold; as measured here it is the difference between the poverty threshold and cash income plus all social insurance (including social security benefits). Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is imputed. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit which is always positive whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment.

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.

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Table B-2. The Poverty Gap ¹ and Reductions in the Gap from Cash & Non-Cash Transfers for Persons in Families with Children Under 18 Years, 1979 - 1996

(In billions of constant 1996 dollars)

	1979	1982	1985	1988	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
1 The poverty gap denotes the amount of funds needed to bring all those below poverty up to the poverty threshold; as measured here it is the difference between the poverty threshold and cash income plus all social insurance (including social security benefits). Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is imputed. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit which is always positive whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by DHHS.
Poverty Gap After:
Cash Income plus All Social Insurance	43.0	58.3	56.4	54.8	64.1	70.0	65.8	58.5	58.4
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	27.7	41.6	39.5	39.1	46.7	50.0	46.7	41.7	42.9
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	18.7	29.4	27.4	26.5	31.0	33.0	30.7	27.3	28.5
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	18.7	30.3	28.5	26.4	30.1	32.1	28.0	24.1	24.6
Reduction in Poverty Gap Due To:
Means-Tested Cash	15.3	16.7	16.9	15.6	17.4	20.1	19.1	16.8	15.5
Food and Housing Benefits	9.1	12.2	12.1	12.7	15.7	16.9	16.1	14.3	14.5
EITC and Federal Taxes	0.0	-0.9	-1.0	0.1	0.9	0.9	2.7	3.2	3.9
Total Reductions	24.4	28.0	28.0	28.4	33.9	38.0	37.9	34.4	33.9
Percent Reduction in Gap Due To:
Means-Tested Cash	35.5	28.6	29.9	28.6	27.1	28.7	29.0	28.8	26.5
Food and Housing Benefits	21.1	20.9	21.4	23.1	24.5	24.2	24.4	24.5	24.7
EITC and Federal Taxes	0.0	-1.6	-1.8	0.2	1.3	1.4	4.1	5.5	6.7
Total Reductions	56.6	48.0	49.6	51.8	52.9	54.2	57.5	58.8	58.0

Table B-3. Poverty Rate of Related Children Under 18 ¹ by State, Selected Years 1969 – 1997

[In percent]

	1969	1979	1983	1986	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997
1 Related children under 18 include own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by blood, marriage, or adoption. Note: Due to limited sample size, rates for small states exhibit large sampling errors. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, for 1969 data see 1970 Census of Population, PC(S1)-105 "Supplementary Report", table 3; for 1979 data, see 1980 Census of Population, PC80-1-C1 "General Social and Economic Characteristics", table 245; subsequent years are unpublished March Current Population Survey data.
Alabama	29.3	23.6	31.0	38.0	23.5	23.9	21.9	21.2	25.3
Alaska	14.7	12.1	14.4	13.6	13.7	11.9	12.3	9.9	10.4
Arizona	17.9	16.5	27.7	20.1	23.9	23.9	24.6	30.5	25.1
Arkansas	31.3	23.4	23.9	27.6	24.6	23.9	19.3	22.0	26.7
California	12.7	15.2	23.0	19.5	20.1	24.6	27.0	25.0	25.0
Colorado	12.7	11.5	17.5	19.2	16.7	15.1	11.7	11.7	9.5
Connecticut	7.8	11.4	13.8	10.6	1.8	20.1	20.6	21.9	9.9
Delaware	12.3	15.6	12.0	21.2	14.2	12.2	11.3	14.0	16.2
Dist of Columbia	23.1	27.0	32.2	23.0	26.2	35.8	37.3	38.0	38.6
Florida	19.2	18.5	22.5	16.4	19.3	24.4	23.1	21.7	20.4
Georgia	24.1	21.1	23.8	23.8	24.2	27.4	19.4	19.9	24.8
Hawaii	10.3	13.0	20.7	14.7	17.7	19.0	11.9	15.9	20.7
Idaho	12.7	14.3	24.0	23.0	15.3	20.6	16.3	16.6	20.2
Illinois	11.0	14.9	21.4	20.7	20.5	23.6	18.9	17.8	15.8
Indiana	9.3	11.9	24.5	16.4	22.8	16.6	16.9	7.8	10.9
Iowa	10.1	11.5	22.8	16.6	13.7	16.5	14.1	11.0	11.3
Kansas	12.0	11.4	19.5	13.7	16.2	15.0	19.4	13.5	10.9
Kentucky	24.9	21.6	24.7	23.2	19.3	28.0	28.5	24.5	23.1
Louisiana	30.0	23.5	27.5	31.3	33.8	35.3	37.5	31.5	23.1
Maine	14.5	15.8	16.2	11.0	14.4	20.3	11.6	14.3	13.2
Maryland	11.5	12.5	13.3	11.8	13.1	18.7	16.8	16.3	13.4
Massachusetts	8.8	13.1	12.6	14.4	14.3	18.1	13.4	14.2	19.7
Michigan	9.4	13.3	25.3	21.5	19.9	20.7	21.2	16.7	14.2
Minnesota	9.5	10.2	14.8	19.0	17.0	18.6	13.8	11.6	15.9
Mississippi	41.3	30.4	37.8	33.5	31.1	32.9	29.5	29.5	21.5
Missouri	14.9	14.6	22.4	20.2	17.5	22.9	22.7	11.6	18.2
Montana	13.3	13.8	17.7	24.2	22.5	19.5	13.6	25.6	18.7
Nebraska	12.2	12.1	17.3	19.1	18.8	16.0	11.2	12.7	12.1
Nevada	9.1	10.0	10.3	14.4	14.6	19.2	16.5	9.4	16.8
New Hampshire	7.9	9.4	10.2	1.7	9.5	10.1	11.5	9.0	12.3
New Jersey	9.2	14.1	17.9	13.9	12.7	15.5	13.9	13.5	13.9
New Mexico	26.7	22.1	29.5	27.8	27.0	29.8	29.1	34.2	29.9
New York	12.7	19.0	23.3	20.6	19.4	25.8	25.8	25.0	25.2
North Carolina	23.6	18.3	19.8	19.1	15.6	24.3	20.4	17.9	16.3
North Dakota	15.9	14.3	16.9	14.1	15.0	14.3	12.0	11.0	18.5
Ohio	10.0	13.2	19.2	18.7	15.1	19.4	21.0	18.5	15.3
Oklahoma	19.7	15.7	22.6	17.7	18.7	24.2	22.9	25.4	17.7
Oregon	10.8	12.0	23.3	15.5	16.0	15.2	14.7	19.8	15.8
Pennsylvania	10.9	13.9	22.3	14.2	16.6	16.2	18.9	15.3	16.6
Rhode Island	11.7	13.8	23.1	13.9	8.4	21.7	14.1	14.3	21.0
South Carolina	28.7	21.0	29.3	23.2	24.7	29.0	20.6	19.1	19.5
South Dakota	18.9	20.0	23.2	21.8	13.9	19.0	19.2	13.4	16.8
Tennessee	24.6	20.6	28.4	23.5	26.5	21.3	19.0	22.8	19.1
Texas	21.7	18.7	22.7	24.7	24.0	26.6	27.7	24.1	23.0
Utah	10.6	10.7	16.2	14.2	10.0	11.8	9.0	8.8	11.5
Vermont	11.5	13.9	21.2	15.8	9.1	11.8	7.9	16.7	12.1
Virginia	18.0	14.9	16.1	14.6	14.8	14.6	12.0	17.2	17.6
Washington	9.8	11.5	13.6	18.5	11.2	15.3	15.7	16.0	14.0
West Virginia	24.3	18.5	30.9	30.8	21.5	35.1	26.3	24.0	20.6
Wisconsin	8.9	10.4	14.6	14.3	11.7	15.0	13.1	11.5	10.7
Wyoming	11.6	7.7	14.5	19.7	14.7	13.5	11.1	13.3	15.3
United States	13.8	16.0	21.8	19.8	19.0	21.6	21.2	19.8	19.2

Table B-4. Poverty Rate of All Persons By State, Selected Years 1969 – 1997

[In percent]

	1969	1979	1983	1986	1989	1992	1994	1996	1997
Alabama	25.4	18.9	22.9	23.8	18.9	17.3	16.4	14.0	15.7
Alaska	12.6	10.7	12.4	11.4	10.5	10.2	10.2	8.2	8.8
Arizona	15.3	13.2	16.5	14.3	14.1	15.8	15.9	20.5	17.2
Arkansas	27.8	19.0	21.6	21.3	18.3	17.5	15.3	17.2	19.7
California	11.1	11.4	14.9	12.7	12.9	16.4	17.9	16.9	16.6
Colorado	12.3	10.1	12.5	13.5	12.1	10.8	9.0	10.6	8.2
Connecticut	7.2	8.0	8.7	6.0	2.9	9.8	10.8	11.7	8.6
Delaware	10.9	11.9	8.5	12.4	10.0	7.8	8.3	8.6	9.6
Dist of Columbia	17.0	18.6	21.3	12.8	18.0	20.3	21.2	24.1	21.8
Florida	16.4	13.5	14.8	11.4	12.5	15.6	14.9	14.2	14.3
Georgia	20.7	16.6	18.8	14.6	15.0	17.7	14.0	14.8	14.5
Hawaii	9.3	9.9	13.4	10.7	11.3	11.2	8.7	12.1	13.9
Idaho	13.2	12.6	17.3	18.5	12.4	15.2	12.0	11.9	14.7
Illinois	10.2	11.0	14.4	13.3	12.7	15.6	12.4	12.1	11.2
Indiana	9.7	9.7	16.1	12.7	13.7	11.8	13.7	7.5	8.8
Iowa	11.6	10.1	16.7	12.9	10.3	11.5	10.7	9.6	9.6
Kansas	12.7	10.1	13.5	11.1	10.8	11.1	14.9	11.2	9.7
Kentucky	22.9	17.6	18.0	17.7	16.1	19.7	18.5	17.0	15.9
Louisiana	26.3	18.6	21.6	22.0	23.3	24.5	25.7	20.5	16.3
Maine	13.6	13.0	12.4	10.2	10.4	13.5	9.4	11.2	10.1
Maryland	10.1	9.8	8.6	9.2	9.0	11.8	10.7	10.3	8.4
Massachusetts	8.6	9.6	7.7	9.2	8.8	10.3	9.7	10.1	12.2
Michigan	9.4	10.4	16.8	13.9	13.2	13.6	14.1	11.2	10.3
Minnesota	10.7	9.5	12.3	12.5	11.2	13.0	11.7	9.8	9.6
Mississippi	35.4	23.9	26.9	26.6	22.0	24.6	19.9	20.6	16.7
Missouri	14.7	12.2	16.7	14.4	12.6	15.7	15.6	9.5	11.8
Montana	13.6	12.3	15.1	16.5	15.6	13.8	11.5	17.0	15.6
Nebraska	13.1	10.7	15.3	13.6	12.8	10.6	8.8	10.2	9.8
Nevada	9.1	8.7	9.8	8.1	10.8	14.7	11.1	8.1	11
New Hampshire	9.1	8.5	8.1	3.7	7.7	8.7	7.7	6.4	9.1
New Jersey	8.1	9.5	10.9	8.9	8.2	10.3	9.2	9.2	9.3
New Mexico	22.8	17.6	24.2	21.3	19.5	21.6	21.1	25.5	21.2
New York	11.1	13.4	15.8	13.2	12.6	15.7	17.0	16.7	16.5
North Carolina	20.3	14.8	15.9	14.3	12.2	15.8	14.2	12.2	11.4
North Dakota	15.7	12.6	15.1	13.5	12.2	12.1	10.4	11.0	13.6
Ohio	10.0	10.3	13.6	12.8	10.6	12.5	14.1	12.7	11
Oklahoma	18.8	13.4	16.9	14.7	14.7	18.6	16.7	16.6	13.7
Oregon	11.5	10.7	16.4	12.3	11.2	11.4	11.8	11.8	11.6
Pennsylvania	10.6	10.5	15.5	10.1	10.4	11.9	12.5	11.6	11.2
Rhode Island	11.0	10.3	14.8	9.1	6.7	12.4	10.3	11.0	12.7
South Carolina	23.9	16.6	20.9	17.3	17.0	19.0	13.8	13.0	13.1
South Dakota	18.7	16.9	18.1	17.0	13.2	15.1	14.5	11.8	16.5
Tennessee	21.8	16.5	20.1	18.3	18.4	17.0	14.6	15.9	14.3
Texas	18.8	14.7	15.7	17.3	17.1	18.3	19.1	16.6	16.7
Utah	11.4	10.3	13.9	12.6	8.2	9.4	8.0	7.7	8.9
Vermont	12.1	12.1	15.6	11.0	8.0	10.5	7.6	12.6	9.3
Virginia	15.5	11.8	11.4	9.7	10.9	9.5	10.7	12.3	12.7
Washington	10.2	9.8	10.8	12.9	9.6	11.2	11.7	11.9	9.2
West Virginia	22.2	15.0	22.3	22.4	15.7	22.3	18.6	18.5	16.4
Wisconsin	9.8	8.7	10.6	10.7	8.4	10.9	9.0	8.8	8.2
Wyoming	11.7	7.9	12.7	14.6	10.9	10.3	9.3	11.9	13.5
United States	13.7	12.4	15.2	13.6	12.8	14.8	14.5	13.7	13.3
Note: Due to limited sample size, rates for small states exhibit large sampling errors. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, for 1969 data, see 1970 Census of Population, PC(1)-C1 "General Social and Economic Characteristics", table 182; for 1979 data, see 1980 Census of Population, PC80-1-C1 "General Social and Economic Characteristics", table 245; 1983 and later years, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).

Table B-5. Number and Percent of Persons in Poverty by Family Relationship for All Races, 1959 - 1997

All Races	Persons in Families		Related Children1 Under 18 in Families		Related Children under 18 In Married-couple Families		Related Children under 18 in Families with Female Householder no husband present
	Thousands	Percent	Thousands	Percent	Thousands	Percent	Thousands	Percent
1 Related children under 18 include own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by blood, marriage, or adoption. 2 Estimated by subtracting an estimate of the number of children living in families headed by male householders with no wife present from the total number of children living in all male-headed households. 3 Prior to 1979 unrelated subfamiles were included in all families. Beginning in 1979 unrelated subfamilies are excluded from all families. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).
1959	34,562	20.8	17,208	26.9	12,8522	22.32	4,145	72.2
1960	34,925	20.7	17,288	26.5	13,0042	22.12	4,095	68.4
1961	34,509	20.3	16,577	25.2	12,2902	20.92	4,044	65.1
1962	33,623	19.4	16,630	24.7	11,8492	19.72	4,506	70.2
1963	31,498	17.9	15,691	22.8	10,9302	17.72	4,554	66.6
1964	30,912	17.4	15,736	22.7	11,1272	18.02	4,422	62.3
1965	28,358	15.8	14,388	20.7	9,6442	15.62	4,562	64.2
1966	23,809	13.1	12,146	17.4	7,7172	12.42	4,262	58.2
1967	22,771	12.5	11,427	16.3	7,0502	11.32	4,246	54.3
1968	20,695	11.3	10,739	15.3	6,2102	10.02	4,409	55.2
1969	19,175	10.4	9,501	13.8	5,1462	8.52	4,247	54.4
1970	20,330	10.9	10,235	14.9	5,4072	9.02	4,689	53.0
1971	20,405	10.8	10,344	15.1	5,3532	9.12	4,850	53.1
1972	19,577	10.3	10,082	14.9	4,8692	8.52	5,094	53.1
1973	18,299	9.7	9,453	14.2	4,1722	7.42	5,171	52.1
1974	18,817	9.9	9,967	15.1	4,4182	8.12	5,361	51.5
1975	20,789	10.9	10,882	16.8	5,141	9.7	5,597	52.7
1976	19,632	10.3	10,081	15.8	4,333	8.3	5,583	52.0
1977	19,505	10.2	10,028	16.0	4,173	8.3	5,658	50.3
1978	19,062	10.0	9,722	15.7	3,865	7.8	5,687	50.6
19793	19,964	10.2	9,993	16.0	4,176	8.3	5,635	48.6
1980	22,601	11.5	11,114	17.9	4,982	10.1	5,866	50.8
1981	24,850	12.5	12,068	19.5	5,522	11.4	6,305	52.3
1982	27,349	13.6	13,139	21.3	6,139	12.6	6,696	56.1
1983	27,933	13.9	13,427	21.8	6,345	13.2	6,747	55.4
1984	26,458	13.1	12,929	21.0	5,757	12.2	6,772	54.0
1985 ..........	25,729	12.6	12,483	20.1	5,393	11.3	6,716	53.6
1986	24,754	12.0	12,257	19.8	4,942	10.4	6,943	54.4
1987	24,725	12.0	12,275	19.7	4,835	10.2	7,019	53.7
1988	24,048	11.6	11,935	19.0	4,552	9.5	6,955	52.9
1989	24,066	11.5	12,001	19.0	4,738	9.9	6,808	51.1
1990	25,232	12.0	12,715	19.9	4,907	10.2	7,363	53.4
1991	27,143	12.8	13,658	21.1	5,066	10.6	8,065	55.4
1992	28,961	13.3	14,521	21.6	5,547	11.2	8,368	54.6
1993	29,927	13.6	14,961	22.0	5,845	11.7	8,503	53.7
1994	28,985	13.1	14,610	21.2	5,439	10.8	8,427	52.9
1995	27,501	12.3	13,999	20.2	4,971	10.0	8,364	50.3
1996	27,376	12.2	13,764	19.8	5,035	10.1	7,990	49.3
1997	26,217	11.6	13,422	19.2	4,759	9.5	7,928	49.0

Table B-6. Composition of Poverty Population for Selected Demographic Groups, Selected Years

Demographic group	Year 1
	1959	1966	1975	1985	1990	1992	1994	1996	1997
1 Demographic data are for March of the following year. 2 Includes unrelated or single individuals. 3 Hispanic origin may be of any race; therefore numbers add to more than 100 percent. 4 Family includes related children under 18. Source: 1998 Green Book, Table H-5. Based on data from March Current Population Survey.
Aged	13.9	17.9	12.8	10.5	10.9	10.3	9.6	9.4	9.5
Children	43.6	42.6	42.1	38.8	39.5	39.7	39.6	38.8	39.7
Nonaged adults	42.5	39.5	45.1	50.7	49.7	49.9	50.8	51.8	50.8
Individuals in Female-headed families2	26.3	36.0	47.4	49.5	53.4	52.6	52.8	53.5	52.7
Individuals in All other families2	73.7	64.0	52.6	50.5	46.6	47.4	47.2	46.5	47.3
Blacks	25.1	31.1	29.2	27.0	29.3	28.5	26.8	26.5	25.6
Whites	72.1	67.7	68.7	69.1	66.5	66.4	66.7	67.5	68.6
Other races	2.8	1.2	2.1	3.9	4.2	5.1	6.5	6.0	5.8
Hispanic origin3	NA	NA	11.6	15.8	17.9	20.0	22.1	23.8	23.4
Individuals in Families with children4	NA	NA	NA	NA	68.0	68.4	68.0	66.7	NA
Male present	NA	NA	NA	NA	30.7	31.4	31.2	30.1	NA
Female head	NA	NA	NA	NA	37.2	37.0	36.9	36.5	NA
Individuals in all Other families	NA	NA	NA	NA	32.0	31.6	32.0	33.3	NA

Figure B-3. Number of Persons Living in Poverty, Unemployed and Receiving Food Stamps ¹ and AFDC, 1959 - 1997

(In millions)

1 Included in the total of persons receiving foods stamps are those persons served by the Family Food Assistance Program (FFAP) which was the predecessor nutrition assistance program to the Food Stamps Program. In 1962 FFAP had 6.4 million participants but by 1967 the number had dropped to 3 million and by 1974, its last year of significant operation it had 1.4 million participants. The Food Stamp program began in the early 1960s on an experimental basis and served less than 1 million participants until 1967 when it reached 1.4 million participants. By 1974 it served 12.9 million participants.

Notes: To be comparable to the poverty and unemployment data, persons receiving food stamps and AFDC benefits in the territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands) are excluded. Data for food stamp participants are for fiscal years; all of the other data series are for calendar years. The reason that the number of AFDC recipients declined slightly during the 1982 recession, rather than increasing as would be expected, was because of new restrictive eligibility provisions enacted as part of OBRA 1981— effective July 1, 1981 families with incomes greater than 150 percent of a State's standard of need were no longer eligible for AFDC income assistance; this was raised to 185 percent in 1984.

Source: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, National Data Bank of the USDA Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, monthly, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1997," Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and earlier years.

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Table B-7. Annual AFDC Benefit Levels by State For a Mother and Two Children with No Earnings, Selected Years 1972 – 1996

State	AFDC Benefit Levels (in 1996 dollars)							Percent Change in Benefits
	1972	1980	1985	1989	1993	1994	1996	1972-89	1989-93	1993-96
Average	$8,542	$6,535	$5,792	$5,602	$4,930	$4,834	$4,569	-34.4	-12.0	-7.3
Weighted Average	8,723	6,813	6,134	5,980	5,138	5,005	4,718	-31.4	-14.1	-8.2
Note: Dollars adjusted for inflation using fiscal year average values of the CPI-U-X1 price index. Each state's weight in every year is the state's population of persons under 18 years of age in 1990 (for continuity over time Alaska, Hawaii, and the territories are not included). Source: DHHS and Ways and Means Committee staff based upon state AFDC benefit data collected by the Congressional Research Service.
Alabama	$3,847	$2,701	$2,065	$1,797	$2,134	$2,079	$1,968	-53.3	18.7	-7.8
Arizona	5,842	4,624	4,078	4,462	4,515	4,399	4,164	-23.6	1.2	-7.8
Arkansas	4,453	3,685	3,361	3,107	2,654	2,586	2,448	-30.2	-14.6	-7.8
California	11,363	10,825	10,274	10,570	8,119	7,694	7,152	-7.0	-23.2	-11.9
Colorado	8,086	6,637	6,056	5,434	4,632	4,513	4,272	-32.8	-14.8	-7.8
Connecticut	12,396	9,292	9,959	9,884	8,848	8,620	7,632	-20.3	-10.5	-13.7
Delaware	8,727	6,088	5,023	5,072	4,398	4,285	4,056	-41.9	-13.3	-7.8
District of Columbia	9,155	6,545	5,724	6,229	5,322	5,324	4,980	-32.0	-14.6	-6.4
Florida	5,130	4,462	4,201	4,371	3,943	3,841	3,636	-14.8	-9.8	-7.8
Georgia	4,097	3,753	3,903	4,158	3,643	3,549	3,360	1.5	-12.4	-7.8
Idaho	10,686	7,393	5,321	4,828	4,125	4,018	3,804	-54.8	-14.6	-7.8
Illinois	9,297	6,591	5,969	5,209	4,775	4,779	4,524	-44.0	-8.3	-5.3
Indiana	7,124	5,836	4,481	4,386	3,747	3,651	3,456	-38.4	-14.6	-7.8
Iowa	10,472	8,239	6,301	6,244	5,543	5,400	5,112	-40.4	-11.2	-7.8
Kansas	11,791	7,896	6,844	6,640	5,582	5,438	5,148	-43.7	-15.9	-7.8
Kentucky	6,590	4,303	3,448	3,472	2,967	2,877	3,144	-47.3	-14.6	6.0
Louisiana	4,560	3,959	3,325	2,894	2,472	2,408	2,280	-36.5	-14.6	-7.8
Maine	7,872	6,408	6,472	6,671	5,894	5,299	5,016	-15.3	-11.6	-14.9
Maryland	7,124	6,179	5,758	6,031	4,762	4,728	4,476	-15.3	-21.0	-6.0
Massachusetts	11,683	8,193	7,561	8,209	7,013	7,340	6,780	-29.7	-14.6	-3.3
Michigan (Wayne)	12,004	9,727	6,896	7,082	5,972	5,818	5,508	-41.0	-15.7	-7.8
Minnesota	11,755	9,543	9,242	8,102	6,922	6,744	6,384	-31.1	-14.6	-7.8
Mississippi	1,710	2,197	1,680	1,828	1,561	1,521	1,440	6.9	-14.6	-7.8
Missouri	4,809	5,676	4,796	4,341	3,799	3,701	3,504	-9.7	-12.5	-7.8
Montana	7,872	5,928	6,196	5,468	5,218	5,273	5,256	-30.5	-4.6	0.7
Nebraska	8,977	7,095	6,127	5,544	4,736	4,614	4,368	-38.2	-14.6	-7.8
Nevada	7,409	5,996	4,989	5,026	4,528	4,411	4,176	-32.2	-9.9	-7.8
New Hampshire	10,971	7,918	6,809	7,706	6,714	6,972	6,600	-29.8	-12.9	-1.7
New Jersey	11,043	8,239	7,072	6,458	5,517	5,375	5,088	-41.5	-14.6	-7.8
New Mexico	6,020	5,035	4,516	4,021	4,645	4,830	4,668	-33.2	15.5	0.5
New York	14,035	9,017	8,297	8,209	7,508	7,314	6,924	-41.5	-8.5	-7.8
North Carolina	6,519	4,394	4,306	4,051	3,539	3,448	3,264	-37.9	-12.6	-7.8
North Dakota	10,758	7,644	6,494	5,879	5,322	5,463	5,172	-45.4	-9.5	-2.8
Ohio	7,266	6,019	5,076	4,889	4,437	4,323	4,092	-32.7	-9.2	-7.8
Oklahoma	8,264	6,454	4,936	4,950	4,216	4,107	3,684	-40.1	-14.8	-12.6
Oregon	12,610	8,880	6,757	6,579	5,985	5,831	5,520	-47.8	-9.0	-7.8
Pennsylvania	11,291	7,278	6,371	6,122	5,478	5,337	5,052	-45.8	-10.5	-7.8
Rhode Island	11,185	7,781	7,159	8,270	7,209	7,023	6,648	-26.1	-12.8	-7.8
South Carolina	3,419	2,953	3,273	3,137	2,602	2,535	2,400	-8.2	-17.1	-7.8
South Dakota	10,437	7,347	5,758	5,742	5,426	5,451	5,160	-45.0	-5.5	-4.9
Tennessee	4,097	2,792	2,679	2,802	2,407	2,345	2,220	-31.6	-14.1	-7.8
Texas	4,132	2,655	2,923	2,797	2,394	2,383	2,256	-32.3	-14.4	-5.8
Utah	9,796	8,239	6,581	5,894	5,387	5,248	5,112	-39.8	-8.6	-5.1
Vermont	11,862	11,260	10,205	9,915	8,575	8,240	7,596	-16.4	-13.5	-11.4
Virginia	9,546	5,904	6,196	5,391	4,606	4,487	4,248	-43.5	-14.6	-7.8
Washington	11,683	10,482	8,332	7,493	7,104	6,921	6,552	-35.9	-5.2	-7.8
West Viginia	7,338	4,714	4,359	3,792	3,240	3,207	3,036	-48.3	-14.6	-6.3
Wisconsin	12,716	10,162	9,329	7,874	6,727	6,554	6,204	-38.1	-14.6	-7.8
Wyoming	8,727	5,264	6,301	5,483	4,684	4,563	4,320	-37.2	-14.6	-7.8

Table B-8. Annual AFDC and Food Stamp Benefit Levels by State For a Mother and Two Children with No Earnings, Selected Years 1972 – 1996

State	AFDC & Food Stamp Benefit Levels (in 1996 dollars)							Percent Change in Benefits
	1972	1980	1985	1989	1993	1994	1996	1972-89	1989-93	1993-96
Average	$10,769	$9,136	$8,563	$8,411	$8,139	$8,020	$7,876	-21.9	-3.2	-3.2
Weighted Average	10,921	9,331	8,811	8,682	8,286	8,136	7,977	-20.5	-4.6	-3.7
Note: Dollars adjusted for inflation using fiscal year average values of the CPI-U-X1 price index. Each state's weight in every year is the state's population of persons under 18 years of age in 1990 (for continuity over time Alaska, Hawaii, and the territories are not included). Source: DHHS and Ways and Means Committee staff based upon state AFDC benefit data collected by the Congressional Research Service.
Alabama	$7,481	$6,452	$5,706	$5,391	$5,933	$5,818	$5,724	-27.9	10.1	-3.5
Arizona	8,877	7,807	7,347	7,591	7,846	7,707	7,596	-14.5	3.4	-3.2
Arkansas	7,905	7,152	6,844	6,642	6,454	6,325	6,204	-16.0	-2.8	-3.9
California	12,742	12,132	11,684	11,866	10,357	10,014	9,684	-6.9	-12.7	-6.5
Colorado	10,448	9,211	8,731	8,274	7,924	7,783	7,668	-20.8	-4.2	-3.2
Connecticut	13,465	11,063	11,463	11,386	10,878	10,661	10,020	-15.4	-4.5	-7.9
Delaware	10,897	8,828	8,008	8,017	7,755	7,618	7,512	-26.4	-3.3	-3.1
District of Columbia	11,196	9,148	8,498	8,827	8,406	8,354	8,160	-21.2	-4.8	-2.9
Florida	8,379	7,695	7,433	7,527	7,443	7,314	7,224	-10.2	-1.1	-2.9
Georgia	7,655	7,200	7,224	7,377	7,235	7,111	7,032	-3.6	-1.9	-2.8
Idaho	12,269	9,738	8,217	7,847	7,573	7,441	7,344	-36.0	-3.5	-3.0
Illinois	11,296	9,179	8,669	8,195	8,093	8,037	7,908	-27.4	-1.2	-2.3
Indiana	9,775	8,653	7,628	7,537	7,300	7,175	7,092	-22.9	-3.2	-2.8
Iowa	12,118	10,329	8,903	8,838	8,562	8,404	8,256	-27.1	-3.1	-3.6
Kansas	13,042	10,089	9,282	9,403	8,796	8,645	8,472	-27.9	-6.5	-3.7
Kentucky	9,401	7,583	6,905	6,898	6,753	6,617	6,876	-26.6	-2.1	1.8
Louisiana	7,979	7,344	6,819	6,488	6,272	6,148	6,036	-18.7	-3.3	-3.8
Maine	10,298	9,052	9,022	9,136	8,809	8,328	8,184	-11.3	-3.6	-7.1
Maryland	9,775	8,893	8,832	8,958	8,184	8,100	7,968	-8.4	-8.6	-2.6
Massachusetts	12,966	10,297	9,785	10,213	9,590	9,761	9,420	-21.2	-6.1	-1.8
Michigan (Wayne)	13,191	11,366	9,319	9,424	8,861	8,696	8,664	-28.6	-6.0	-2.2
Minnesota	13,016	11,238	10,961	10,139	9,525	9,342	9,144	-22.1	-6.1	-4.0
Mississippi	5,608	5,951	5,321	5,422	5,361	5,261	5,196	-3.3	-1.1	-3.1
Missouri	8,154	8,541	7,848	7,505	7,339	7,213	7,128	-8.0	-2.2	-2.9
Montana	10,298	8,717	8,829	8,294	8,328	8,316	8,352	-19.5	0.4	0.3
Nebraska	11,071	9,531	8,780	8,348	7,989	7,859	7,740	-24.6	-4.3	-3.1
Nevada	9,974	8,765	7,983	7,985	7,846	7,707	7,596	-19.9	-1.7	-3.2
New Hampshire	12,468	10,105	9,258	9,861	9,382	9,507	9,300	-20.9	-4.9	-0.9
New Jersey	12,517	10,329	9,441	9,101	8,640	8,480	8,328	-27.3	-5.1	-3.6
New Mexico	9,002	8,094	7,653	7,281	7,937	8,011	7,944	-19.1	9.0	0.1
New York	15,051	10,872	10,577	10,455	10,136	9,951	9,720	-30.5	-3.1	-4.1
North Carolina	9,351	7,647	7,505	7,303	7,157	7,035	6,960	-21.9	-2.0	-2.7
North Dakota	12,318	9,913	9,037	8,582	8,406	8,455	8,292	-30.3	-2.1	-1.4
Ohio	9,875	8,780	8,045	7,889	7,846	7,656	7,536	-20.1	-0.5	-4.0
Oklahoma	10,572	9,083	7,946	7,932	7,625	7,504	7,260	-25.0	-3.9	-4.8
Oregon	13,626	10,776	9,841	9,612	9,329	9,152	8,964	-29.5	-2.9	-3.9
Pennsylvania	12,692	9,658	8,952	8,753	8,510	8,366	8,208	-31.0	-2.8	-3.5
Rhode Island	12,617	10,009	9,592	10,334	9,798	10,027	9,792	-18.1	-5.2	-0.1
South Carolina	7,181	6,642	6,783	6,663	6,402	6,275	6,156	-7.2	-3.9	-3.8
South Dakota	12,094	9,706	8,523	8,486	8,484	8,442	8,292	-29.8	-0.0	-2.3
Tennessee	7,655	6,530	6,319	6,397	6,207	6,085	5,976	-16.4	-3.0	-3.7
Texas	7,680	6,407	6,538	6,392	6,194	6,123	6,012	-16.8	-3.1	-2.9
Utah	11,645	10,329	9,098	8,593	8,445	8,303	8,256	-26.2	-1.7	-2.2
Vermont	13,091	12,436	11,635	11,407	10,683	10,394	9,996	-12.9	-6.4	-6.4
Virginia	11,470	8,701	8,829	8,241	7,898	7,770	7,656	-28.2	-4.2	-3.1
Washington	12,966	11,893	10,492	9,922	9,993	9,799	9,576	-23.5	0.7	-4.2
West Viginia	9,925	7,871	7,542	7,122	6,948	6,870	6,792	-28.2	-2.4	-2.2
Wisconsin	13,734	11,669	11,022	9,979	9,395	9,216	9,024	-27.3	-5.9	-3.9
Wyoming	10,897	8,254	8,903	8,305	7,963	7,821	7,704	-23.8	-4.1	-3.3

Table B-9. Civilian Unemployment Rate, Selected Years 1979 – 1997

(Percent of Civilian Labor Force)

	1979	1982	1985	1989	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997
United States	5.8	9.7	7.2	5.3	7.5	6.9	6.1	5.6	5.4	4.9
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment, annual, (data for 1997 available online at http://stats.bls.gov:80/lauhome.htm).
Alabama	7.1	14.4	8.9	7.0	7.4	7.6	6.0	6.3	5.1	5.1
Alaska	9.2	9.9	9.7	6.7	9.2	7.7	7.8	7.3	7.8	7.9
Arizona	5.1	9.9	6.5	5.2	7.6	6.3	6.4	5.1	5.5	4.6
Arkansas	6.2	9.8	8.7	7.2	7.3	6.2	5.3	4.9	5.4	5.3
California	6.2	9.9	7.2	5.1	9.3	9.4	8.6	7.8	7.2	6.3
Colorado	4.8	7.7	5.9	5.8	6.0	5.3	4.2	4.2	4.2	3.3
Connecticut	5.1	6.9	4.9	3.7	7.6	6.3	5.6	5.5	5.7	5.1
Delaware	8.0	8.5	5.3	3.5	5.3	5.3	4.9	4.3	5.2	4.0
Dist. of Columbia	7.5	10.6	8.4	5.0	8.6	8.6	8.2	8.9	8.5	7.9
Florida	6.0	8.2	6.0	5.6	8.3	7.0	6.6	5.5	5.1	4.8
Georgia	5.1	7.8	6.5	5.5	7.0	5.8	5.2	4.9	4.6	4.5
Hawaii	6.3	6.7	5.6	2.6	4.6	4.3	6.1	5.9	6.4	6.4
Idaho	5.7	9.8	7.9	5.1	6.5	6.2	5.6	5.4	5.2	5.3
Illinois	5.5	11.3	9.0	6.0	7.6	7.5	5.7	5.2	5.3	4.7
Indiana	6.4	11.9	7.9	4.7	6.6	5.4	4.9	4.7	4.1	3.5
Iowa	4.1	8.5	8.0	4.3	4.7	4.0	3.7	3.5	3.8	3.3
Kansas	3.4	6.3	5.0	4.0	4.3	5.0	5.3	4.4	4.5	3.8
Kentucky	5.6	10.6	9.5	6.2	6.9	6.2	5.4	5.4	5.6	5.4
Louisiana	6.7	10.3	11.5	7.9	8.2	7.5	8.0	6.9	6.7	6.1
Maine	7.2	8.6	5.4	4.1	7.2	7.9	7.4	5.7	5.1	5.4
Maryland	5.9	8.4	4.6	3.7	6.7	6.2	5.1	5.1	4.9	5.1
Massachusetts	5.5	7.9	3.9	4.0	8.6	6.9	6.0	5.4	4.3	4.0
Michigan	7.8	15.5	9.9	7.1	8.9	7.1	5.9	5.3	4.9	4.2
Minnesota	4.2	7.8	6.0	4.3	5.2	5.1	4.0	3.7	4.0	3.3
Mississippi	5.8	11.0	10.3	7.8	8.2	6.4	6.6	6.1	6.1	5.7
Missouri	4.5	9.2	6.4	5.5	5.7	6.5	4.9	4.8	4.6	4.2
Montana	5.1	8.6	7.7	5.9	6.9	6.1	5.1	5.9	5.3	5.4
Nebraska	3.2	6.1	5.5	3.1	3.0	2.7	2.9	2.6	2.9	2.6
Nevada	5.1	10.1	8.0	5.0	6.7	7.3	6.2	5.4	5.4	4.1
New Hampshire	3.1	7.4	3.9	3.5	7.5	6.6	4.6	4.0	4.2	3.1
New Jersey	6.9	9.0	5.7	4.1	8.5	7.5	6.8	6.4	6.2	5.1
New Mexico	6.6	9.2	8.8	6.7	7.0	7.7	6.3	6.3	8.1	6.2
New York	7.1	8.6	6.5	5.1	8.6	7.8	6.9	6.3	6.2	6.4
North Carolina	4.8	9.0	5.4	3.5	6.0	4.9	4.4	4.3	4.3	3.6
North Dakota	3.7	5.9	5.9	4.3	5.1	4.4	3.9	3.3	3.1	2.5
Ohio	5.9	12.5	8.9	5.5	7.3	6.5	5.5	4.8	4.9	4.6
Oklahoma	3.4	5.7	7.1	5.6	5.7	6.1	5.8	4.7	4.1	4.1
Oregon	6.8	11.5	8.8	5.7	7.6	7.3	5.4	4.8	5.9	5.8
Pennsylvania	6.9	10.9	8.0	4.5	7.6	7.1	6.2	5.9	5.3	5.2
Rhode Island	6.6	10.2	4.9	4.1	9.0	7.8	7.1	7.0	5.1	5.3
South Carolina	5.0	10.8	6.8	4.7	6.3	7.6	6.3	5.1	6.0	4.5
South Dakota	3.5	5.5	5.1	4.2	3.2	3.6	3.3	2.9	3.2	3.1
Tennessee	5.8	11.8	8.0	5.1	6.4	5.7	4.8	5.2	5.2	5.4
Texas	4.2	6.9	7.0	6.7	7.7	7.2	6.4	6.0	5.6	5.4
Utah	4.3	7.8	5.9	4.6	5.0	3.9	3.7	3.6	3.5	3.1
Vermont	5.1	6.9	4.8	3.7	6.7	5.5	4.7	4.2	4.6	4.0
Virginia	4.7	7.7	5.6	3.9	6.4	5.1	4.9	4.5	4.4	4.0
Washington	6.8	12.1	8.1	6.2	7.6	7.6	6.4	6.4	6.5	4.8
West Virginia	6.7	13.9	13.0	8.6	11.4	10.9	8.9	7.9	7.5	6.9
Wisconsin	4.5	10.7	7.2	4.4	5.2	4.7	4.7	3.7	3.5	3.7
Wyoming	2.8	5.8	7.1	6.3	5.7	5.5	5.3	4.8	5.0	5.1

Appendix C. Additional Nonmarital Birth Data

Table C-1. Percentage of Births that are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups by Race

	White					Black
	Under Age 15	Age 15 - 17	Age 18 - 19	All Teens	All Women	Under Age 15	Age 15 - 17	Age 18 – 19	All Teens	All Women
Notes: Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940 - 1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from nonreporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Data for 1996 are preliminary. Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992," Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995 and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, "Report of Final Natality Statistics, 1996," Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 46, No. 11, June 30, 1998.
1940	44.4	NA	NA	7.2	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1941	44.9	NA	NA	7	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1942	40.5	NA	NA	6.4	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1943	45.2	NA	NA	6.5	1.6	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1944	41.3	NA	NA	8.4	2	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1945	50.7	NA	NA	10	2.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1946	52.4	NA	NA	8.4	2.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1947	45.1	NA	NA	6.6	1.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1948	39.9	10.3	4.6	6.3	1.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1949	40.4	10	4.5	6.1	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1950	41.9	10.2	4.8	6.4	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1951	34.9	9.7	4.4	5.9	1.6	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1952	40.4	9.6	4.4	6	1.6	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1953	43.1	9.6	4.5	6.1	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1954	36.8	10.2	4.9	6.5	1.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1955	42.1	10.2	4.9	6.6	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1956	42.6	10.2	4.8	6.5	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1957	41.5	10.4	4.7	6.5	2	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1958	45.3	10.8	4.9	6.8	2.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1959	46.7	11.4	5.2	7.2	2.2	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1960	47.5	11.7	5.4	7.4	2.3	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1961	49.9	12.4	6	7.9	2.5	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1962	48.3	13.4	6.1	8.2	2.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1963	50.3	15.1	7	9.4	3.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1964	52.3	16	7.6	10.4	3.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1965	57.3	17.3	9.1	11.7	4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1966	52.5	19.5	9.9	12.6	4.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1967	61.6	21	11.2	14.2	4.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1968	61	23.4	12.7	16.1	5.3	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1969	57	24	12.9	16.6	5.5	91.7	72.1	48.3	60	34.9
1970	57.9	25.2	13.5	17.5	5.7	93.5	76	52.1	64	37.6
1971	60.5	25.2	13.2	17.4	5.6	95	79.6	56	68.1	40.5
1972	59	26.4	13.7	18.5	6	96.4	81	59	70.7	43.9
1973	65.2	27.6	14.3	19.6	6.4	96.4	82.6	60.4	72.1	45.7
1974	65.3	29.4	15	20.8	6.5	97.4	84.8	63.8	74.7	47.1
1975	71	33	17.2	23.5	7.3	98.4	87.4	67.6	77.8	48.8
1976	69.3	35.7	18.8	25.4	7.7	99.1	89.7	70.9	80.5	50.3
1977	72.8	38.9	21	27.8	8.2	98.8	90.6	74.6	82.6	51.7
1978	73.1	40.1	22.5	29.1	8.7	97.2	90.9	76.5	83.5	53.2
1979	75	42.4	24.3	30.8	9.4	99.4	92.9	78.9	85.7	54.7
1980	75.4	45.4	27.1	33.6	11.2	98.6	93.1	79.9	86.2	56.1
1981	76.5	48	28.7	35.5	11.8	98.9	93.9	81.3	87.2	56.9
1982	77.7	50.1	30.3	37.2	12.3	98.4	94.2	82.4	87.9	57.7
1983	79.9	53.1	32.7	39.8	12.9	98.5	95.1	84.4	89.4	59.2
1984	80.8	55.4	35.1	42.2	13.6	98.6	95.3	85.4	90	60.3
1985	82.4	58	38.2	45.3	14.7	98.8	95.6	86.2	90.6	61.2
1986	83.6	61.3	41.7	48.8	15.9	99	95.7	86.9	91.1	62.4
1987	84.6	64.6	44.4	51.8	16.9	99.1	96.1	87.6	91.7	63.4
1988	86.5	66.2	47.3	54.1	18	98.9	96.4	88.5	92.3	64.7
1989	84.7	67.2	49.5	55.7	19.2	98.4	96.1	89	92.3	59.2
1990	83.6	67.9	50.8	56.8	20.4	98.5	95.6	89.4	92.2	59.8
1991	75.5	69.7	53.2	59	21.8	98.1	95.7	89.8	92.5	60.3
1992	76.2	70.6	54.9	60.6	22.6	97.6	95.6	90.4	92.8	68.1
1993	83.2	71.7	57.2	62.7	23.6	98.1	95.7	90.8	93.1	68.7
1994	90.4	77.5	61.9	68	25.4	99.1	97.8	93.4	95.5	70.4
1995	88.8	77.4	62.1	68	25.3	99.1	97.7	93.2	95.3	69.9
1996	90.1	78.8	63.3	69.2	25.7	99.1	97.9	93.6	95.6	69.8