Publication Date
- We modeled the excess utilization of three commonly used drugs that treat heat-related illness in emergency departments during extreme heat events, using literature-derived estimates of emergency department visit rates for heat-related illness on extreme heat days and drug utilization rates from medical claims data.
- We estimate that extreme heat is associated with an average of 34,251 excess emergency department visits for heat-related illness in the contiguous United States per year, or roughly 6 percent of the baseline number of visits for heat-related illness in June through September. The number of excess emergency department visits for heat-related illness varies heavily from year to year (estimated range: 6,433–62,854) based on the length and frequency of heatwaves.
- Of the 34,251 excess emergency department visits per year, we estimate an average of 12,677 excess visits require saline solution infusions, 5,963 excess visits require ondansetron injections, and 2,226 excess visits require ceftriaxone injections.
- Using recent heatwaves as illustrative examples, we show that this type of model can be used to predict local surges in drug utilization, inform drug acquisition and supply chain resilience strategies, and ultimately improve health outcomes. This is particularly important given that a heatwave can cause sudden spikes in drug utilization of more than 60 percent for an entire affected state, according to our modeling.