Review of Assumptions and Methods of the Medicare Trustees' Financial Projections

The Technical Review Panel on the Medicare Trustees Report was established by the Department of Health and Human Services in 2016 to review the assumptions and methods underlying the Medicare Trust Funds (Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance) annual reports to Congress. The Panel, which has nine members, reviewed the Medicare assumptions, projection methodology, long-range growth assumptions, and related matters used to develop the annual reports. The Panel felt the approach currently used in the Trustees Reports was broadly reasonable. Although the Panel discussed recommendations in many areas, a common conclusion held. When weighing the tradeoff's implied by a potential change to current assumptions or approaches, the evidence available was often too thin to support a change, or the complexity introduced by a proposed change made it impractical. The Panel complies with the Federal Advisory Committee Act.