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Associations between COVID-19 Vaccinations and Health Outcomes and Spending

This series of ASPE reports evaluates the association between COVID-19 vaccinations and reduction in health outcomes such as COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths, and health care spending.

Reductions in Deaths and Hospitalizations Associated with COVID-19 Vaccinations Among Medicare Beneficiaries: Full Year 2021 Estimates
This study updates ASPE’s previous analysis of the associations between COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths among Medicare beneficiaries and COVID-19 vaccination rates, with full year data through the end of 2021. The study uses a combination of person-level Medicare claims and county-level vaccination data to estimate reductions in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths among Medicare beneficiaries associated with COVID-19 vaccinations in 2021. We find that vaccines were associated with 670,000-680,000 fewer hospitalizations and 330,000-370,000 fewer deaths among Medicare beneficiaries in 2021, with the largest reductions during the summer Delta surge. This represents a 39–47 percent reduction in these outcomes. Reductions in hospitalization and deaths linked to vaccination rates occurred in all racial and ethnic groups and in all 50 states.

Associations between County-level Vaccination Rates and COVID-19 Outcomes Among Medicare Beneficiaries in Early 2021
The purpose of this study is to identify associations between COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries and the proportion of the population fully vaccinated at the county-level between January and May 2021. We do so by using a combination of person-level Medicare FFS claims and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data on county-level vaccination rates. Based on these results, we then estimated the net reduction in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among all 62.7 million Medicare beneficiaries associated with the first 5 months of the U.S.’s COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. Our results indicate that COVID-19 vaccinations from January until May 2021 were associated with an estimated reduction of more than 265,000 COVID-19 infections and nearly 39,000 deaths among Medicare beneficiaries.

Hospitalization Cost Savings Associated with COVID-19 Vaccinations Among Medicare Beneficiaries in Early 2021
Using Medicare FFS claims data and county-level vaccination rates, we estimate savings of about $2.6 billion from reduced Medicare hospitalizations associated with COVID-19 vaccinations in early 2021. These cost savings reflect 107,000 fewer Medicare (FFS and Medicare Advantage) COVID-19 hospitalizations during this period, compared to projections if no COVID-19 vaccines were available during that period. Hospitalization cost savings from this early vaccination period were nearly large enough to offset the cost for approximately 67.7 million single-dose COVID-19 vaccines, or 31.2 million two-dose series, assuming an average cost of $40 per dose.

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