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Many of the studies funded with the targeted Policy Research funds in Fiscal Years 1998, 1999, 2000 and/or 2001 are still on-going projects. However, several ASPE-funded studies, supported in whole or in part by the targeted Policy Research funds, have been completed or have released interim findings since our last report. This chapter includes both findings from completed projects and some interim results or products from continuing projects.
Final reports from most of the FY 1998 State Welfare Outcomes grantees have been released and research data sets are becoming available. Under contract with ASPE, the Urban Institute prepared a synthesis report that includes administrative data findings from all 15 of the ASPE-funded leavers studies. The report also includes more detailed findings based on information gathered through follow-up surveys of samples of former recipients from 12 of the 15 grantees. In addition, the researchers at the Urban Institute conducted secondary data analyses of welfare outcomes measures, drawing on the state-specific data sets produced by each of the grantees secured under the Technical Assistance on Researcher Access to Data Sets project. The final synthesis report, completed in December 2001, builds on these secondary data analyses of welfare outcomes measures and information in the grantees' written reports. The report, Final Synthesis Report of Findings from ASPE "Leavers" Grants, is available on ASPE's website at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/synthesis02/>, under "Leavers and Diversion Studies." It includes information on welfare leavers' employment and earnings, public assistance program participation, income and poverty status, material hardships, and child well-being.
Some highlights of the report include:
Employment and Earnings
Encouraging families to move off welfare and into jobs is a goal of welfare reform. All fifteen studies collected some information about employment rates and earnings, wages, or employer-related benefits of families that left welfare. The major findings in this area across these studies are:
Program Participation
Non-TANF government assistance can help families in their transition from welfare to work. However, some families return to TANF. The major findings across studies on returns to TANF and participation in other public assistance programs include:
Household Income
Household or family income is an important indicator of the well-being of welfare leavers. Although such information is difficult to gather, a subset of studies examine income levels, sources of income, and poverty. Results on income levels, sources of income, and poverty for the subset of studies that examine income are summarized below.
Material Hardship
A number of leavers studies go beyond earnings, employment, income, and program participation and examine the extent to which leavers experience material hardships such as hunger and housing problems and whether these hardships are different for families on and off welfare. Key findings include:
Child Well-Being
Although virtually all families leaving welfare have children, it is difficult to assess child well-being from either administrative data or a single interview. Thus, leaver studies contain limited information about children's outcomes and well-being. For the studies reporting this information, findings on children's health insurance coverage, health status, behavior, interaction with child welfare services, and child care arrangements are summarized below.
As TANF policies move welfare recipients into the labor force, there is growing interest and concern about the barriers that may prevent recipients from gaining and keeping employment. Mental health problems are one such barrier. Under a task order, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. profiled the efforts of four states (Florida, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah) to address the mental health needs of welfare recipients. This study was designed to: (1) identify and provide detailed information about the design and structure of mental health services developed by state and local welfare offices to address the mental health needs of welfare recipients, (2) highlight service delivery options in designing and implementing these services, and (3) discuss the key implementation challenges and lessons learned in providing mental health services to welfare recipients. The researchers visited one rural and one urban site in each state. The sites provided services in a variety of ways, and the research did not collect any evidence that suggests that one model for providing mental health services is better than any other. Rather, the project was designed to draw attention to the key design and implementation choices made by policymakers and managers in providing mental health services for welfare recipients. The final report, Providing Mental Health Services to TANF Recipients: Program Design Choices and Implementation Challenges in Four States, was released in August 2001, and is available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/TANF-MH01/>.
ASPE made its final installment of support for the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs. The purpose of convening this NAS Panel was to evaluate the design of current, proposed and future studies of the effects of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996, and to provide the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) with unbiased scientific recommendations for studying the outcomes of recent changes in the welfare system. The panel's conclusions and recommendations on research questions and populations of interest, evaluation methods and issues, and data needs and issues were presented in its report, Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition, which was disseminated in 2001. The Panel published a collection of methodological papers by welfare outcomes research experts, Studies of Welfare Populations, Data Collection and Research Issues, in January 2002. The papers included in the volume discuss the current state of knowledge for surveying low-income populations; preparation and use of and access to welfare program-relevant administrative data systems; and measuring important outcomes for welfare studies.
Through an interagency transfer, ASPE funds were used to support storage of certain data sets at the Research Data Center (RDC) of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These data sets include state-specific administrative and survey data from state and county grantees conducting Welfare Outcomes studies on former, current, and potential TANF recipients. As of March 2002, documented data sets on families who left TANF were available for further analysis from fifteen grantees and data sets from families applying for TANF from three grantees. A few additional data sets, primarily from studies of families applying for TANF, will be placed at the Research Data Center in the next few months. Information on procedures for gaining access to welfare outcomes data sets is posted on the "Data Files" section of the ASPE-sponsored "Leavers and Diversion" web page at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/datafiles/>.
The purpose of these grants is to enhance state-specific surveys of populations affected by welfare reform, by expanding or improving data collection activities. Grants to states are being used, for example, to add additional survey waves to measure longer-term outcomes, collect data to support greater sub-group analyses, and gather more detailed information on non-respondents. To be eligible, states had to have an existing survey that had been administered at least once, so the grants can facilitate real improvements, without paying for basic startup costs. Survey efforts needed to fill an important knowledge gap that could not be filled with states' existing data. The data cover a variety of welfare reform outcomes, such as measures of family hardship and well-being, barriers to employment, poverty status, and utilization of support programs. The surveys focus on various subsets of the low-income population including long-term welfare recipients, child-only cases, former recipients, potential recipients, welfare leavers with little or no reported income, and other special populations affected by state TANF policies.
Iowa (2000)
Iowa builds on an existing study of families leaving the Family Independence Program (FIP). The study was conducted by Mathematica Policy Research (MPR), and consisted of three components: one focusing on families who have left TANF and report very low incomes; a second focusing on longer-term outcomes for families that have left TANF; and a third focusing on non-respondents from their earlier survey. MPR has secured significant funding from foundations in addition to the ASPE grant for this project. All components have been completed.
In their study of families with very low incomes, MPR conducted in-depth interviews of 16 families reporting no more than $500 in total income per month, including those with no TANF and no employment, and those with low levels of TANF and/or employment. These interviews focused on possible income sources that were missed or incorrectly measured, coping strategies and family well-being. They found that while many families had two or more sources of income, their incomes varied significantly from month to month, often leaving gaps in their ability to meet regular monthly expenses such as rent. Coping strategies included negotiating partial payment on bill, pawning goods, doubling up on rent and finding additional sources of income such as recycling cans or babysitting. MPR found that the great variability in monthly income made it likely that traditional one-time phone interviews of leavers are limited in their ability to capture economic well-being of families. A link to the report, Living on Little: Case Studies of Iowa Families with Very Low Incomes is available on Mathematica's web site at <http://www.mathematica-mpr.com/PDFs/liveonlittle.pdf>.
MPR's second analysis of Iowa added a second wave to their existing survey of welfare leavers to observe outcomes two years after families left TANF. The analysis also incorporates administrative data to help track income and program participation. The study found that most family heads were working two years after leaving TANF, had above minimum wage jobs and were as well or better off than they were a year ago. However, their work was unstable and over half remained poor or near poor. While only about one fifth returned to TANF, closer to one half participated in Medicaid and over one third in food stamps. A link to the report, Iowa Families That Left TANF: How Are They Faring Two Years Later?, is available on Mathematica's web site at <http://www.mathematica-mpr.com/PDFs/iowatwoyears.pdf>.
MPR's final analysis under this grant involved interviews with approximately 47 non-respondent cases from their earlier survey of one-year outcomes, targeting a response rate of roughly 60 percent. Information from these interviews was used to assess the representativeness of survey data on welfare outcomes and the implications for interpreting findings, by examining whether non-respondents to that survey where significantly different from respondents, and whether their non-response significantly biased the survey's findings. Using intensive location efforts, the project found and interviewed the majority of TANF leavers who failed to respond to the original survey. The study reports that the non-respondents were somewhat worse off. For example, they were less likely to have health insurance, and more likely to have housing-related problems such as going without utilities or having to double up. But their outcomes were not sufficiently different to bias the original survey's results, such that even if they had been included in the original survey, the findings would not be significantly different.
ASPE, along with the ACF, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and USDA, contributed funding to a major $5.9 million initiative of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to provide technical assistance and grants to states and large counties to improve their enrollment and redetermination processes for Medicaid, the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), and food stamps. Under the Supporting Families program, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation provided funding for assistance to states or counties to work on Medicaid and SCHIP, while federal funding provided assistance to work on food stamps, Medicaid, and SCHIP. The expert technical assistance included analysis of performance data, identification of the root causes of problems in their enrollment processes, and/or development of specific implementation plans to solve the problems and increase the participation rates in Medicaid, SCHIP, and food stamps. Information on the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's overall initiative to solve problems in eligibility processes that make it difficult for low-income families to access and retain Medicaid, SCHIP or food stamps - particularly families moving from welfare to work - can be found under "Supporting Families after Welfare Reform" at <http://www.rwjf.org/>.
Federal funding supported a literature review and synthesis on the post-welfare reform drop in participation in the Medicaid and Food Stamp programs, including reasons underlying the changes in participation, and potential strategies for increasing participation among eligible families. The report, Access to and Participation in Medicaid and the Food Stamp Program - A Review of the Recent Literature, was released in March 2000, and can be found at <http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/opre/med-fs.htm>. It includes findings from government- and privately-sponsored research projects, studies of participation in the Food Stamp Program (FSP) and Medicaid at the national and state level, studies of low-income families who have left welfare, reviews of research, and ongoing analysis and data collection efforts. Federal funding also supported visits to promising practices sites to identify practices that appear to enhance or facilitate participation in the Medicaid/SCHIP and Food Stamp programs by former TANF and low-income families. The final report, Promoting Medicaid and Food Stamp Participation: Establishing Eligibility Procedures that Support Participation and Meet Families' Needs, synthesizes findings across all promising practices and program improvement sites. The case study reports can be found at <http://www.mathematica-mpr.com/Publications/publications.asp>.
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The prevalence of alternative work arrangements such as temporary and on-call jobs in the U.S. work force has grown considerably in recent years. The growth is likely to have important implications for low-income workers, particularly since the advent of welfare reform and its emphasis on getting welfare recipients into jobs quickly. Alternative work arrangements, especially for those with limited work histories, might be expected to be a natural pathway to work for welfare recipients. However, little is known about the use of nonstandard work as a gateway into the work force for the low-income and the low-skilled. This project examined the role of nonstandard work arrangements in today's labor market, paying particular attention to the effect of such arrangements on low-income workers and those at risk of being on public assistance.
Findings from the October 2001 final report by the Urban Institute, which can be found at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/temp-workers01/>, include:
In FY 2000, ASPE issued a task order to the Urban Institute to analyze and synthesize available information on state welfare and related support policies and assess which characteristics of state programs or background characteristics are most significant in predicting outcomes. As part of this project, Urban convened a technical work group (TWG) of researchers to make recommendations on which existing typologies were most promising and on directions for analysis. The TWG recommended that Urban develop new typologies, rather than modifying existing typologies.
Therefore, under the revised task order, Urban Institute developed six typologies, each containing the variables that are expected to affect a specific outcome (such as recipient job entry or the poverty rate). The variables in these typologies, along with state level data on outcomes and contextual variables, have been entered into a database which will be available to researchers interested in studying the relationships between state TANF policies and the range of outcomes experienced by current and former welfare recipients and other low-income populations. This database will be available through the ASPE and Urban Institute websites in Summer 2002, along with a complete data dictionary, documentation of sources, and explanation of the reasoning behind the typologies. Urban has also conducted cluster and factor analysis on the recipient job entry typology as an example of what can be learned through these approaches.
Families in which a grandparent or another relative has taken over parental responsibilities make up approximately one-third of both the TANF and foster care caseloads. Neither of these service systems have been set up with such families in mind, and, in many ways, the services provided are an inadequate match with families' needs. Several states have set up separate kinship care assistance programs outside the traditional structures of both the child welfare and TANF systems. Under this project the Urban Institute profiled an emerging trend on the part of states and localities to develop "alternative" kinship care programs designed to meet the needs of kinship care families outside of traditional foster care or TANF programs. The final report, On Their Own Terms: Supporting Kinship Care Outside of TANF and Foster Care, describes the characteristics and service needs of kinship caregivers, the range and scope of alternative kinship care program models and services, lessons learned about designing and implementing alternative programs, and policy implications for child welfare, TANF/welfare, and other agencies. In-depth information on programs in seven sites (2) is also included. The report was released in September 2001 and is available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/kincare01/>.
Several government agencies (ACF, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and ASPE in HHS; the Immigration and Naturalization Service in DOJ; and USDA's Food and Nutrition Service and Economic Research Service) and private foundations (the Ford, William and Flora Hewlett, and Andrew W. Mellon Foundations) awarded a grant to the Urban Institute in 1997 to study immigrant families in the context of welfare reform. ASPE contributed funds in 1998 and 1999. The project involved a large-scale study of immigrants and their communities in Los Angeles and New York City to deepen our understanding of the impact of changes in federal laws on immigrant families and children. The final report, How Are Immigrants Faring After Welfare Reform? Preliminary Evidence from Los Angeles and New York City, was released in March 2002.
This report analyzes survey data collected in late 1999 and early 2000 from 3,447 immigrant families in New York City and Los Angeles County. Major findings are summarized below; most are consistent with other recent research findings related to poverty rates and rates of health insurance among immigrants.
This report and other project reports can be found at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/hspother.htm#immig>.
In a related effort, ASPE funds were used to support the Urban Institute's updating of the TRIM modeling program (used to simulate welfare caseload changes resulting from changes in various policy variables) to include parameters about immigrants, and as a subset, refugees and non-refugees, using 1995 data as a baseline. This updated model could be used to estimate the rates of participation in TANF, Medicaid, and food stamps by children, both citizen and immigrant, who live in immigrant- and citizen-headed households. (TRIM has subsequently been updated to include immigrant variables for later years, using other funding sources.)
ASPE has supported researcher-initiated proposals to study important questions related to the outcomes of welfare reform in FYs 1999, 2000 and 2001. Eight welfare outcomes research grants totaling $800,000 were awarded in FY 1999 to analyze a variety of information about low-income individuals (both adults and children) and their families, including their economic and non-economic well-being and their participation in government programs. Issues examined under those grants include caseload dynamics, the impact of spatial distribution of economic opportunities, health insurance and health care utilization, the use of food stamps, living arrangements, maternal and child health, domestic violence, and quality-of-life issues.
The FY 2000 grant program, conducted in cooperation with the Administration for Children and Families, focused on use of state and federal administrative data, and on current and former TANF recipients and other special populations affected by state TANF policies. Priority research interests included the composition of the caseload, patterns of government program use, sub-populations, non-working welfare leavers, sanctions, employment stability, marriage and family structure, TANF flexibility, barrier identification and service utilization, and entry effects and welfare dynamics. ASPE awarded approximately $1.3 million to 10 applicants. In general, ASPE funding supported research and secondary data analysis efforts that would be completed within 12 months covering a variety of information about adults, children, and families, including economic and non-economic well-being and participation in government programs. ACF awarded an additional $1.2 million in FY 2000 to support continuation of two of the projects beyond this first year and seven other longer-term projects involving primary data collection.
Some grants have been completed or have interim products. When available, final reports from the grantees will be posted on the ASPE website at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/>.
RAND: Entry, Exit and the Changing Composition of the Caseload (2000)
This project explored the role of the economy in explaining the welfare caseload declines. It examined the relative importance of changes in the rates of entry, exit, and re-entry in explaining the observed caseload declines using individual level data for California. The results suggested that adjustment is far from instantaneous. Changes in the entry rate were much more important than changes in the exit rate and re-entry rate for explaining changes in the welfare caseload itself.
Baruch College, City University of New York: Effects of Welfare Reform on Investments in Human Capital and Family Formation (2000)
This study investigated whether the behavior of teens and young adults ages 16 to 21 has changed as the result of welfare reform. Researchers used data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (NLSY) to compare cohorts (both between and within) that entered these ages prior to and following welfare reform, describing differences in outcomes and behaviors such as high school completion, teenage and non-marital child bearing, employment and welfare receipt. The study found that rates of first-time entry onto welfare have declined considerably, primarily among older teens. The decline in the welfare caseload associated with reform is not solely a matter of an increase in the rate of leaving welfare or a decline in recidivism, but also has occurred because of a decline in the rate of initial entry. Teenage mothers were less likely to enter welfare in the late 1990s than in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The study also found some weak evidence that welfare reform may have reduced fertility among teens. The decline in welfare entry among teenage mothers has been accompanied by changes in their living arrangements. Compared to the pre-welfare reform cohort, teenagers who have had a non-marital birth are less likely to receive welfare, and those who are not on welfare are more likely to live with a parent.
University of Oregon: TANF and Household Savings (2000)
This project studied the impact of new savings incentives offered to participants in the TANF program. Researchers addressed the following questions: 1) Has saving increased among those low-income households who reside in states that have increased the liquid-asset and vehicle equity limits for program eligibility? 2) Has saving increased among those low-income households who reside in states that have introduced Individual Development Accounts? 3) What is the impact of time-limited benefits on household savings? 4) Are there differences by race, marital status, and poverty status in the response to the new saving incentives?
The study used data from the 1989, 1994, and 1999 wealth supplements of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. A final report, released in June 2001, found that the near-term saving of the poor has responded modestly to several of the recent changes in welfare policy, but that in general the saving of the near-poor has not responded to welfare reform. Specifically, increasing asset limits has had a small positive effect on saving by the poor, while the imposition of time limits appears not to have motivated low-income households to save more.
University of Michigan: Mental Health, Substance Abuse, and Domestic Violence Service Utilization by Welfare Recipients (2000)
This project analyzed the impact that spatial proximity to social service providers and individual-level characteristics have on service utilization rates among welfare recipients in the three-county Detroit metropolitan area. This study showed that major depression and several limitations in physical functioning are related to lower probabilities of employment and few months of employment. The study also showed that severe abuse is prevalent for the sample and recent and persistent experiences are associated with welfare reliance without work, lower earnings, and great likelihood of material hardship and financial strain. Researchers used data from a survey of welfare recipients in the Detroit area.
Case Western Reserve University: The Effect of Job Accessibility and Neighborhood Characteristics on the Employment Stability of Welfare Leavers in an Urban Labor Market (2000)
This study examined the spatial patterns of employment and the effects of neighborhood conditions and job accessibility on the labor market experiences and employment stability of adult female case heads leaving welfare. The analysis focused on employment stability, earnings, and wages at approximately 6 and 13 months after individuals left TANF in the Cleveland metropolitan area. Labor market success was measured in a number of ways, including the level of earnings and wages, the growth of earnings and wages, and the probability of remaining employed. Results suggested that welfare leavers had less job access than the Cleveland area population in general. Relative to the available jobs in the labor market, their jobs were over-represented in inner city and minority employment locations. There were few effects on employment outcomes of job access.
University of Illinois: Young Mothers' Transitions On and Off TANF: How do Child Care Assistance, Job Training, and Social Supports Influence These Decisions? (2000)
This project identified the likelihood that young mothers entered, stayed on, or left TANF given the use and/or availability of child care, job training, and other social programs in their community. Data on three subgroups of young mothers (ages 18-24) who lived in the Chicago metropolitan area between January 1, 1997, and June 30, 2000, were analyzed. The major findings were that receiving Medicaid while not on TANF is related to a lower risk of starting to receive TANF. Mothers also are less likely to return to TANF after exiting if they get help paying for child care.
Washington University: The Impact of Welfare Reform in North Carolina: Exits, Employment, Earnings and Recidivism (2000) (formerly Employment, Earnings and Recidivism: How do Entrants to TANF Differ from Entrants to AFDC?)
The project used administrative data from North Carolina, focusing on five consecutive entry cohorts (those who began receiving AFDC/TANF payments in February, March or April of 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, or 1999). Data on client demographics and welfare receipt were linked to employment data and to data on local labor markets. All analyses were broken out by race/ethnicity. The analyses found that:
Low-wage working families face multiple demands as workers and as parents. Besides working, low-income parents in both single- and two-parent families need time for training and education, navigating complex health and support services, parenting, and managing their children's needs. Some low-wage working parents also are providing care for family members who are elderly or have special needs, or must work nonstandard and irregular hours. This project, jointly sponsored by ASPE and ACF, is assessing coping mechanisms used by low-income families by examining a variety of factors that may help or hinder a family's efforts to be self sufficient, including formal and informal support services, social support networks, and time and money management. The project examines all low-income families as well as teen parents and those leaving TANF assistance and entering the labor force for the first time, and considers the effects of coping on children. A conference was held in November 2001, and research papers were presented at the conference.
Widespread anecdotal evidence suggests that the welfare caseload is becoming increasingly harder to employ, and a number of surveys of adult welfare recipients have demonstrated that they have a higher prevalence of multiple barriers to employment than women at large. However, these studies are generally small and not representative, and the questions used to assess the prevalence of barriers differ from study to study, making cross comparisons difficult.
The purpose of this project was to build on experiences from the Women's Employment Study at the University of Michigan to review what we have learned to date and suggest how we might go about designing surveys that would provide data about multiple barriers to employment, including health, mental health, domestic violence, literacy, work skills, etc.
An ASPE-sponsored workshop was held in March 2001 to generate recommendations on how best to design a survey study of welfare recipients to understand the factors that encourage or, in contrast, hinder welfare recipients' transitions to employment and self-reliance. Participants included academic and policy researchers with a wide range of methodological and substantive interests, and research staff from HHS (including the National Institute of Mental Health) and the Michigan Family Independence Agency. The project's final report, released in February 2002, summarized the conference themes and included recommendations for a survey of welfare recipients. Some of the issues addressed include: designing the sample; reducing non-response, particularly non-response due to inability to locate sample members; costs and benefits of collecting administrative data along with survey data; ideas for measures of employability; conceptual and methodological issues related to studying domestic violence; measures of physical and mental health appropriate for welfare studies; and design issues for collecting data on substance abuse. The report, Designing Surveys of Welfare Populations: Report from the Workshop on Designing Surveys of Welfare Recipients, March 15-16, 2001, Ann Arbor, Michigan, will be posted at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/> when available.
This project analyzed data from various sources, including the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and administrative data, to track trends in income, poverty and other economic measures, such as food security and access to health insurance. The resulting tabulations are being used to support internal analyses of income and poverty, children and their families, working-age adults, the elderly, and the impacts of public programs including outcomes of welfare reform.
The goal of this research project was to investigate alternative systems for state-level surveys to support welfare reform assessments that can be linked to related national, regional and state data. The investigation focused on sampling design, questionnaire design, and local assessment of transportation needs in a rural state.
This project found that a dual-frame sample design - one that uses random digit dialing for a telephone survey and a list-based frame - can be implemented to target both welfare recipients and the general population to provide efficient estimates of the population of interest. In addition, it was found that local-specific topic modules could successfully be incorporated into a current national survey instrument. The researchers developed a transportation module and incorporated it into the instrument used for the national Survey of Program Dynamics to address information needs of rural communities in the state. A pilot study using the dual-frame sampling methodology and the modified instrument was successfully carried out.
States and counties that received FY 1998 and FY 1999 Welfare Outcomes grants have submitted research data sets that combine the state-specific administrative data they have collected on former, current, and potential TANF recipients and other special populations affected by state TANF policies, including diversion practices. Grantees were expected to submit the data sets to ASPE, and also to make them available for research purposes. To improve the quality and comparability of these data sets, and to ensure that the data are appropriately documented and accessible to outside researchers, ASPE modified and extended an earlier task order contract with ORC Macro in FY 2000 to provide technical assistance and coordination in the preparation of the data sets. ORC Macro helped coordinate the ASPE public use data file work group, and released a technical assistance guide for the grantees in Fall 2000 on procuring and documenting researcher-access data files. In addition, ORC Macro reviewed, analyzed, and edited (where necessary) those data files that were submitted by the grantees prior to the end of this contract in September 2001.
Funding was provided to researchers at the Chapin Hall Center for Children at the University of Chicago for technical assistance to states that received grants to promote child indicator work to monitor changes in welfare and other key policies. The technical assistance effort emphasized collaborative work among the states and peer-to-peer assistance efforts. Technical assistance was provided, for example, on conceptual and methodological issues in identifying and measuring appropriate sets of child health and well-being indicators within and across states; ways of creating or using survey and administrative data and of combining several data approaches; and ways to involve state policy makers who can help institutionalize data systems for measuring and tracking child indicators and establish procedures for using indicator information to inform policy deliberations. The reports and products developed by the states, as well as summaries of meetings at which technical assistance was provided to grantees, will be available primarily through the ASPE website (see <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/cyp/child-ind98/>) in Summer 2002.
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One of the Congress's major objectives in providing welfare outcomes money to ASPE over the last several years is to measure outcomes for a broad population of low-income families, welfare recipients, former recipients, potential recipients, and other special populations affected by state TANF policies, including diversion practices (3). To this end, ASPE issued a request for applications from states and large counties in April 1999 with an emphasis on the study of applicants and potential applicants to the TANF program. ASPE awarded seven grants under this announcement, six of which specifically support state efforts to gather a variety of information about individuals and their families who apply to TANF, including those who are formally or informally diverted. In addition, several of the leavers studies funded in FY 1998 had significant applicant components to their projects.
ASPE is particularly interested in learning about the degree to which TANF applicants receive, or are aware of their potential eligibility for, Medicaid, food stamps, and other programs and services that are important in helping low-income families make a successful transition to work. Below are summaries of the grants provided to states and large counties in fiscal years 1998 and 1999 with a particular emphasis on TANF applicants and diversion from TANF. "Diversion" in this context is not limited to participation in formal diversion programs, but also includes "informal" divertees. These are usually defined as individuals who began the application process but were either deemed ineligible for non-monetary reasons, withdrew voluntarily after completing the process, or failed to complete the process for some other reason. These project updates are current as of March 2002.
Arizona (1999)
Arizona built on their FY 1998 study of leavers by looking at informal divertees and entrants to TANF. The study used a wide range of administrative data (including data on child care subsidies) to track second quarter 1999 divertees and entrants for 12 months, and included two waves of surveys of 400 individuals in both populations. Some of the subgroups on which the state focused included urban vs. rural applicants and applicants who are initially denied but eventually reapplied for TANF. Arizona collected administrative data from a number of different sources, including a data warehouse established as part of the FY 1998 ASPE leavers grant.
The final report for the project was released in October 2001, and a link to the report has been posted on ASPE's website. Both sets of applicants (divertees and entrants) showed dramatic increases in employment, income, and other indicators during the study period, and most of the families stated that they were better off at the time of the second interview (about 15 months after applying for TANF). However, about half of the respondents remained unemployed, and cited medical issues and preference to care for the child at home as the main reasons for not working.
Contra Costa County and Alameda County, California (1999)
Contra Costa and Alameda Counties are located in the East San Francisco Bay area of California and contain the cities of Oakland and Richmond. This project studied TANF leavers from both counties, as well as formal and informal divertees in Contra Costa County. Researchers at the SPHERE Institute were able to take advantage of these counties' Case Data System (CDS), which includes every TANF application that is initiated in the two counties. The CDS allowed SPHERE to uncover the reasons individuals were diverted from or left TANF, as well as make comparisons across the two counties. SPHERE used the CDS both to link all applicants with other administrative databases and to draw their survey sample of 850 leavers and 150 divertees from the third quarter of 1999. Comparisons between divertees, leavers and cases that transitioned to child-only cases, and between the two counties were made in the final report, which includes data from two rounds of surveys.
The SPHERE Institute released the final report for this project in October 2001. They found that, overall, conditions improve in the period following TANF application for both leavers and the informally diverted, but that one year after applying for TANF, leavers were doing somewhat better than informally diverted families and much better than families that transitioned to child-only cases. Awareness and use of post-exit "transitional" benefits was not high. A link to the final report (Assessing the Family Circumstances of TANF Applicants and Leavers in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties, CA: Final Report) has been posted on ASPE's web site at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/reports.htm>.
Texas (1999)
This project represented the combined efforts of the Texas Department of Human Services, the Texas Workforce Commission, and the University of Texas-Austin. It focused not only on informal divertees, but also on potential TANF applicants who are formally diverted by the state, either through a one-time lump sum payment or by redirection into work. The administrative data analysis incorporated a wide variety of sources, and tracked both applicants who were redirected into work or denied for non-financial reasons and participants in the lump-sum diversion program. In addition to the two waves of surveys conducted with applicants who were denied TANF for non-financial reasons, the state added leavers to both the survey and administrative samples.
The final report for the project was released by the Texas Department of Human Services in January 2002, and a link to the report has been posted on ASPE's web site. The state found that families diverted from TANF quickly resumed their prior levels of receipt of TANF, Medicaid and food stamps, as well as their prior level of earnings, suggesting that diversion policies in Texas have few long-term effects on diverted families. The majority of redirected applicants and leavers were employed in the period immediately following the study quarter.
Leavers Studies that also Examine Diverted Populations (Florida, San Mateo, and South Carolina) (1998)
Three FY 1998 grants that have a primary focus of studying outcomes for families leaving welfare also include research on families that were formally or informally diverted from entering TANF. These three grants are Florida, a consortium of California counties, and South Carolina.
The Florida study, undertaken by researchers at Florida State University, examines three groups of individuals from the second quarter of 1997: TANF leavers, individuals who began the application process but who either withdrew voluntarily after completing the process or failed to complete the process ("diverts"), and individuals who receive food stamps or Medicaid, have minor children, and have income and assets below the cash assistance limit but who do not receive cash assistance ("opt-nots"). Findings from Florida's final report, released in November 2000, indicated that the "diverts" and "opt-nots" look very similar to leavers in terms of employment rates. However, leavers appear to have slightly higher earnings and slightly lower use of government services than the other two groups.
The study in San Mateo, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties in California was funded primarily as a leavers study. However, because the administrative system in all three counties includes all applications, and not just those for individuals who receive TANF, researchers at the SPHERE Institute were able to also study informal divertees. Analysis of administrative data is being supplemented by surveys administered at six, 12 and 18 months after "case closure" (when either the applicant withdraws from the application process or the TANF recipient leaves the program). A draft report summarizing the first wave of survey data along with linked administrative data was released in December 2000.
A final report from SPHERE incorporating the second and third waves of survey data was released in November 2001. At eighteen months after the study quarter, conditions were improving for both leavers and informally diverted families. Trends in the awareness and use of transitional assistance were positive among leavers and divertees, but the findings also indicated room for further improvement. For example, the use of food stamps declined among one-parent leaver and informally diverted families, but the percentage of eligible families not receiving food stamps also declined.
The project in South Carolina also is focused primarily on leavers, but state researchers have also used food stamp records to identify families that appeared to be eligible for cash assistance but were not enrolled. Surveys were conducted with families who went on food stamps between October 1998 and March 1999 and who did not subsequently apply for TANF. The surveys took place at approximately one year and two years after entry into the food stamp caseload. Each of the families had dependent children and was eligible for TANF based on gross income, but did not enroll in the TANF program.
A report detailing the findings from Wave 1 of the survey was released by South Carolina and their contractor, MAXIMUS, in June 2001, and Wave 2 survey results subsequently were released in June 2002. Results of the study suggest that, in addition to families who divert from welfare due to time limits or work requirements, there may be a broader population of families who are not going on welfare even though they are eligible based on their level of income and number of dependent children. The final report detailing findings from Wave 3 of the survey and summarizing the previous reports is expected to be released in Fall 2002.
One of the four purposes of TANF is to "end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits by promoting job preparation, work and marriage." An important step in advancing the policy agenda around supporting marriage is to build a greater knowledge base around existing state policies pertaining to marriage. This project, conducted by the Lewin Group, develops an inventory of state-level policies directly aimed at promoting and supporting marriage in the following areas: campaigns, commissions and proclamations; divorce laws and procedures; marriage and relationship preparation and education; state tax policies; state transfer policies; state vital statistics; marriage support and promotion; youth education and development; court initiatives; and specialty programs. The project is purely descriptive, documenting which policies exist across states without assessing policy effectiveness or promising practices. Information was gathered primarily through secondary sources of information such as printed reports and web searches. An interim report was released in Spring 2002 and is available on the ASPE website at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/marriage02/>. The final report, which will make minor revisions, is expected to be released in Summer 2002.
This project, a Researcher Initiated Grant on Welfare Outcomes awarded to the Urban Institute, began in September 2000 and is examining the interactions between family formation status and economic well-being to better understand the extent to which marriage is a protective factor against economic hardship, particularly among the disadvantaged population. The study examines various types of family formation, including single, married and cohabiting parents, and it looks at measures of poverty as well as material hardship. The project is producing four reports, based on various data sources.
The first report, completed in August 2001, is based on data from the National Survey of America's Families, and found that, overall, marriage reduced the likelihood that parents would experience poverty of material hardship. The report is titled Marriage as a Protective Factor Against Economic Hardship: An Initial Report. The second and third reports, Married and Unmarried Parenthood and the Economic Well-Being of Families: A Dynamic Analysis of a Recent Cohort and The Relationship Between Marriage and Other Family Structures and the Material Hardship Experienced by Households with Children: Evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, respectively, are expected to be completed by Summer 2002. The final report, a literature review, also is anticipated to be completed by Summer 2002.
The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (BBA) authorized an evaluation of abstinence education programs that are funded through Title V Section 510 of the Social Security Act and administered by the Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB) within the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA). The BBA set aside $3 million for each of fiscal years 1998 and 1999 for federally sponsored evaluations of abstinence education programs. ASPE was delegated responsibility for managing the evaluation, and competitively awarded a contract to Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. to carry out this work. The ASPE 2001 funds will allow the evaluation to follow adolescents for longer periods of time.
The Interim Report to Congress, The Title V Abstinence Education Program Evaluation: The First Four Years, released in April 2002, describes the progress of the evaluation and presents early implementation and operational findings, drawing most heavily on the experience of the 11 abstinence education programs that were selected to be in the evaluation. The report illustrates the wide range of abstinence education programs that are operating, and the innovative ways in which programs are using funds to promote abstinence as the healthiest choice for youth. A number of the initiatives are diverse, creative, and, in many instances, offer youth much more than a single message of abstinence. Youth respond positively to staff who show strong and unambiguous commitment to the program message, and programs that use an intensive set of youth development services to enhance and support the abstinence message are very well received. The report shows that addressing peer pressure is difficult, and many programs have struggled to address these issues and engage parents in this process. The report also describes some ways in which programs may partner with local schools to provide abstinence education, highlighting some of the challenges to creating and sustaining these partnerships. No programmatic impacts are presented in the Interim Report. Details and updated information about the evaluation can be found at Mathematica Policy Research's web site on abstinence-only education programs <http://www.mathematica-mpr.com/3rdlevel/abstinence.htm>.
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1. Dates in parentheses following the title of each project identify the Fiscal Year(s) in which the study was funded.
2. The seven sites/programs included A Second Chance, Inc. (ASCI) in Pittsburgh, PA; Grandparents and Kinship Program in Denver, CO; Florida's statewide Relative Caregiver Program; the Kentucky Kinship Care Program; the Kentucky KinCare Project; the Kinship Support Network (KSN) in San Francisco; and a variety of ongoing kinship care initiatives in Oklahoma involving services to relative caregivers.
3. Diversion programs include formal efforts to address the immediate needs of families seeking cash assistance in ways that avoid enrolling these families in TANF. Examples of formal diversion programs include lump sum payment programs, mandatory applicant job search programs and the exploration of alternative means of support.
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