Assessing the Context of Permanency and Reunification in the Foster Care System

Chapter 5.
Reunification from Foster Care in Nine States, 1990-1997:
Description and Interpretation

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Contents

  1. Exits from Foster Care
    1. State Patterns of Exit From Foster Care
    2. Exit Destination by Child Characteristics
    3. Exit Destination by Case Characteristics
    4. Summary
  2. Timing of Foster Care Exits and Trends Over Time
    1. The Structure of Tracking Tables
    2. Substantive Highlights From Nine-State Table
      1. Substantive Highlights from Individual State Tables
    3. Cross-Sectional Picture of Exit Change: 1990 and 1994
  3. Multivariate Analysis of Foster Care Exits
    1. Reunification From Foster Care
      1. Family Exit Analysis
      2. Reunification During Different Periods in the Duration of a Spell
      3. Individual State Models of Reunification and Family Exits
  4. Reentry From Foster Care
    1. Reentry Counts and Rates by Type of Exit From Care
    2. Multivariate Models for Reentry after Reunification
  5. Adoption From Foster Care
  6. Summary of Administrative Data Analysis

Endnotes

This work describes discharges from foster care, with a focus on those exits that are accomplished by reunifying the foster child with his or her family of origin. The data presented cover a time period from 1990 through 1997. Child welfare practice has undergone substantial change since the mid-1990s. Some changes are due to new federal legislation, such as the Adoption and Safe Families Act of 1997. Others result from policy and practice reform at the state and local levels. As a result, the size and dynamics of current-day foster care caseloads in some states already differ substantially from their experience during the early and mid-1990's. The information that follows provides a description of exits from foster care, based on actual records of child histories in care. It is intended to be used as a baseline against which current and future patterns of exit from foster care can be measured and evaluated.

The tables presented include foster care exit dynamics for nine states: Alabama, California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, New York, and Wisconsin. The data for these analyses is drawn from the Multistate Foster Care Data Archive at the Chapin Hall Center for Children. The Archive was created with individual level records extracted from the automated administrative tracking systems of each state's public child welfare agency and supplied by the states to Chapin Hall for analytic purposes.

The universe for this analysis includes all episodes of child placement in substitute care arrangements that began during the years 1990 through 1997.(1) Each episode (or spell in placement) is tracked either until the child exits from foster care or until the end of 1997. If the child entered care more than once between 1990 and 1997, each spell is retained as a separate event.

Many findings are pooled across all nine states to reveal general trends and patterns. Because these nine states combined contain well over half of the nation's foster care population, observations based on these data should be useful for describing relationships at the national level. However, these data should not be considered as fully representative of the national foster care population, and these nine states are not a representative sample of all state child welfare systems.

This document describes the table contents and figures (located at the end of the document), and highlights some of the patterns and findings observed within them. The discussion of the first table also introduces and describes most of the variables that are used throughout the analysis.

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1. Exits from Foster Care

In order to understand patterns of reunification from foster care, it is useful to consider reunification in the context of all exits from care, and in the context of the individual characteristics and the case histories of the children involved.(2) Table IIA.1 presents an overview of exits from foster care. The left side of the table contains counts of spells by type of exit, classified first by state, then by four child characteristics, and finally by each of four case characteristics. This series of two-way tables is based on a universe of 404,416 distinct spells in foster care. These are all spells that began with a foster placement between 1990-94 in any of the nine states, and are enumerated in the first column, labeled "All Entries. These spells are each tracked until the child is discharged from foster care or through the end of 1997. So the potential period of observation is at least three years (for children who entered care at the end of 1994), and at most eight years (for children who entered care at the start of 1990.

The second column, labeled "No Exit, Still in Care," indicates how many of these spells were still open at the end of 1997. Just under one-fifth (75,199 or 18.6%) of the children who entered care between 1990 and 1994 remained in care through the end of observation. It is important, to note that exits from some long-term stays in care are not observed and are not reported in this table, so that the completed duration and the eventual discharge destination at exit for these spells are censored from this analysis. However, we do know that all of these censored spells, by definition, have a duration of three years or more, and as will be seen, reunification is a fairly rare outcome after three years. Therefore, we assume that these censored spells would probably add little new information to most of this reunification analysis. However, it should be noted that exits from stays of over three years are incompletely described in these tables. The proportion still in care is computed against a base of all entries.

The exit distribution is presented with six categories for destination at exit:

Looking at the first row of Table IIA. I , we see that of the 404,416 spells observed, 187,406 ended with a family reunification. There were also 23,398 exits to other relatives, 38,291 completed adoptions, 9,583 children "aging out" of care, 23,635 runaways, and 46,904 spells that exited to "other" destinations. On the right side of the table, each exit type is presented as a proportion of all observed exits. Therefore, the statistic reporting that the proportion of reunification spells for all nine states combined is .569 should be interpreted as meaning that 56.9 percent of all spells where an exit was observed were exits by reunification.

During the period of observation, the majority of exits (57%) were achieved through family reunification. Of the remainder, 7 percent were to relatives, 12 percent via adoption, 3 percent reached majority, 7 percent involved runaways from care, and 14 percent were in the "other" category. This exit distribution for the spells from the pooled nine-state data provides a yardstick against which the distributions for each state or subgroup will be compared.

It is important to note that the distributions presented in Table IIA. I describe each type of exit as a proportion of all observed exits, not as a proportion of all entries. If the 9-state reunification statistic (.569) were recomputed as a proportion of all spells, we would see that 46.3 percent of all entry spells were observed to end in reunification by the end of 1997. This latter statistic is usually what would be considered as a reunification rate, in that it describes the likelihood of reunification for an entire population at risk. The difference between the two measures is caused by spells where an exit is not observed. The relationship of these statistics is presented in Figure A. Here, we can see that the reunification rate (reunifications/entries) can be described as the product of a) the likelihood of exit (exits/entries), and b) the likelihood that an exit is by reunification (reunifications/exits). Alabama has one of the highest exit rates, so the low reunification rate must be interpreted in the context of knowing that many children exit foster care in other ways. In contrast, the low reunification rate in Illinois must be understood in the context of low overall exit rates -- as relatively few children leave foster care to other destinations.(3)

Table IIA.1
Type of Exit from Spells in Foster Care, by State and selected covariates. Nine States Pooled . 1990-1994 Entry Cohorts, spells starting before 1995. Exits observed through December 1997.
  Counts Proportion of Entries Proportion of Exits
All Entries No Exit Exit Type No Exit Exit Type
Still in Care Reunify Relative Care Adopt Reach Majority Run Away Other Exit Still in Care Reunify Relative Care Adopt Reach Majority Run Away Other Exit
State
Alabama 9,224 774 2,423 2,668 454 50 269 2,586 0.084 0.287 0.316 0.054 0.006 0.032 0.306
California 143,973 30,944 75,910 2,838 10,571 4,181 6,351 13,178 0.215 0.672 0.025 0.094 0.037 0.056 0.117
Illinois 56,354 20,767 17,661 915 5,506 684 4,475 6,346 0.369 0.496 0.026 0.155 0.019 0.126 0.178
Maryland 14,003 2,512 5,155 2,346 1,629 676 401 1,284 0.179 0.449 0.204 0.142 0.059 0.035 0.112
Michigan 31,537 1,750 14,442 3,074 5,734 619 1,264 4,654 0.055 0.485 0.103 0.193 0.021 0.042 0.156
Missouri 22,629 2,315 10,732 983 2,457 390 1,204 4,548 0.102 0.528 0.048 0.121 0.019 0.059 0.224
New Mexico 5,889 275 3,342 448 553 172 344 755 0.047 0.595 0.080 0.099 0.031 0.061 0.134
New York 94,758 13,474 41,949 8,528 9,854 1,806 8,064 11,083 0.142 0.516 0.105 0.121 0.022 0.099 0.136
Wisconsin 26,049 2,388 15,792 1,598 1,533 1,005 1,263 2,470 0.092 0.667 0.068 0.065 0.042 0.053 0.104
Nine State Total 404,416 75,199 187,406 23,398 38,291 9,583 23,635 46,904 0.186 0.569 0.071 0.116 0.029 0.072 0.142

Child Characteristics

Age at Entry

< 3 mos. 51,521 13,215 15,095 2,772 15,492 0 0 4,947 0.256 0.394 0.072 0.404 0.000 0.000 0.129
3-11 mos. 31,028 6,835 13,733 2,060 5,161 0 0 3,239 0.220 0.568 0.085 0.213 0.000 0.000 0.134
1 to 2 yrs. 57,188 13,032 28,155 3,773 6,835 0 0 5,393 0.228 0.638 0.085 0.155 0.000 0.000 0.122
3 to 5 61,649 15,148 31,406 3,897 5,525 0 9 5,664 0.246 0.675 0.084 0.119 0.000 0.000 0.122
6 to 8 46,372 11,556 24,199 2,924 3,036 0 209 4,448 0.249 0.695 0.084 0.087 0.000 0.006 0.128
9 to 11 40,943 8,822 21,637 2,545 1,514 165 1,817 4,443 0.215 0.674 0.079 0.047 0.005 0.057 0.138
12 to 14 62,742 5,498 31,067 3,315 601 2,294 10,611 9,356 0.088 0.543 0.058 0.010 0.040 0.185 0.163
15 to 17 52,973 1,093 22,114 2,112 127 7,124 10,989 9,414 0.021 0.426 0.041 0.002 0.137 0.212 0.181

Age at Exit

0 years 20,487 0 13,813 2,558 1,217 0 0 2,899 0.000 0.674 0.125 0.059 0.000 0.000 0.142
1 to 2 47,325 0 29,317 4,090 8,375 0 0 5,543 0.000 0.619 0.086 0.177 0.000 0.000 0.117
3 to 5 80,501 17,848 35,440 4,578 15,529 0 0 7,106 0.222 0.566 0.073 0.248 0.000 0.000 0.113
6 to 8 62,543 20,868 26,189 3,160 7,041 0 0 5,285 0.334 0.628 0.076 0.169 0.000 0.000 0.127
9 to 11 46,650 13,449 22,288 2,592 3,484 0 359 4,478 0.288 0.671 0.078 0.105 0.000 0.011 0.135
12 to 14 58,176 10,620 27,935 3,101 1,883 59 7,220 7,358 0.183 0.587 0.065 0.040 0.001 0.152 0.155
15 to 17 69,444 8,747 30,330 3,016 682 1,960 14,573 10,136 0.126 0.500 0.050 0.011 0.032 0.240 0.167
Over 17 yrs 19,290 3,667 2,094 303 80 7,564 1,483 4,099 0.190 0.134 0.019 0.005 0.484 0.095 0.262

Gender

Female 207,204 37,079 95,132 12,124 18,895 6,095 14,803 23,076 0.179 0.559 0.071 0.111 0.036 0.087 0.136
Male 197,212 38,120 92,274 11,274 19,396 3,488 8,832 23,828 0.193 0.580 0.071 0.122 0.022 0.056 0.150

Race/Ethnicity

African American 161,625 44,281 59,368 11,302 16,070 2,794 9,057 18,753 0.274 0.506 0.096 0.137 0.024 0.077 0.160
Hispanic 61,343 11,049 32,146 2,544 4,301 1,381 4,046 5,876 0.180 0.639 0.051 0.086 0.027 0.080 0.117
Other 31,480 4,167 14,730 2,367 2,866 795 2,683 3,872 0.132 0.539 0.087 0.105 0.029 0.098 0.142
White 149,968 15,702 81,162 7,185 15,054 4,613 7,849 18,403 0.105 0.604 0.054 0.112 0.034 0.058 0.137

Case Characteristics

Spell Sequence

First Spell 352,029 67,390 166,035 20,842 34,935 7,833 15,624 39,370 0.191 0.583 0.073 0.123 0.028 0.055 0.138
Reentry Spell 52,387 7,809 21,371 2,556 3,356 1,750 8,011 7,534 0.149 0.479 0.057 0.075 0.039 0.180 0.169

Duration

< 1 mo 49,767 0 34,820 5,027 271 90 4,048 5,511 0.000 0.700 0.101 0.005 0.002 0.081 0.111
1 to 3 months 46,432 0 30,905 4,336 510 216 4,297 6,168 0.000 0.666 0.093 0.011 0.005 0.093 0.133
4 to 6 months 35,492 0 23,517 2,862 459 334 3,309 5,011 0.000 0.663 0.081 0.013 0.009 0.093 0.141
6 mos to 1 year 48,657 0 33,358 3,197 1,706 872 3,661 5,863 0.000 0.686 0.066 0.035 0.018 0.075 0.120
1 year to 18 mos 36,557 0 24,329 2,210 2,170 1,041 2,165 4,642 0.000 0.666 0.060 0.059 0.028 0.059 0.127
18 mos to 2 year 26,752 0 15,077 1,655 3,141 1,097 1,529 4,253 0.000 0.564 0.062 0.117 0.041 0.057 0.159
2 to 3 year 36,103 0 14,327 2,040 9,777 1,948 2,098 5,913 0.000 0.397 0.057 0.271 0.054 0.058 0.164
3 years + 124,656 75,199 11,073 2,071 20,257 3,985 2,528 9,543 0.603 0.224 0.042 0.410 0.081 0.051 0.193

Placement Type

Congregate Care 64,836 4,602 30,990 3,529 739 2,195 11,932 10,849 0.071 0.514 0.059 0.012 0.036 0.198 0.180
Foster Care 214,991 31,805 103,302 14,303 30,038 4,955 8,029 22,559 0.148 0.564 0.078 0.164 0.027 0.044 0.123
Kinship Care 108,750 35,027 46,611 5,084 6,738 1,478 2,356 11,456 0.322 0.632 0.069 0.091 0.020 0.032 0.155
Mixed Type 15,839 3,765 6,503 482 776 955 1,318 2,040 0.238 0.539 0.040 0.064 0.079 0.109 0.169

Placement Stability

1 placement 207,134 22,650 117,125 14,699 12,216 3,958 11,212 25,274 0.109 0.635 0.080 0.066 0.021 0.061 0.137
2 placements 97,561 18,850 42,557 5,317 12,391 2,260 5,284 10,902 0.193 0.541 0.068 0.157 0.029 0.067 0.139
3-4 placements 66,504 19,090 21,272 2,688 9,981 2,025 4,161 7,287 0.287 0.449 0.057 0.211 0.043 0.088 0.154
5+ placements 33,217 14,609 6,452 694 3,703 1,340 2,978 3,441 0.440 0.347 0.037 0.199 0.072 0.160 0.185

Figure A
Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care Components of Reunification Rates

Figure A.1 Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care Components of Reunification
Rates

Figure A.2 Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care Components of Reunification
Rates

The proportions in Figure A.1 report the likelihood that a child or youth entering foster care between 1990 and 1994 exited before 1998 via reunification with their family.
One decomposition of the proportions in Figure A.1 is represented in Figure A.2, which presents the likelihood of any exit from care and the proportion of exits that are achieved via reunification. Mathematically, the likelihood of reunification is the product of these two separate proportions.

1.1 State Patterns of Exit From Foster Care

Individually, the nine states present very different patterns of exit distribution from foster care. Illinois and California had the largest proportion of children remaining in care, which meant that they had the greatest share of long duration foster spells. Over one-third of the spells in Illinois and one-fifth of the spells in California had not been completed by the end of 1997. By contrast, in five states (Alabama, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, and Wisconsin) only one tenth or fewer of all spells remained open in 1997. To the extent that reunification is related to the length-of-stay in foster care, this is a very significant dynamic to remember during this analysis.

Reunification levels differ by state -- from 28.7 percent of exits in Alabama to 67.2 percent in California and 66.7 percent in Wisconsin. In the other six states, 45-60 percent of all foster care exits were family reunification. This state-to-state variation in the use of reunification to end episodes of foster care placement is substantial. Alabama is a clear outlier, with far lower proportions of reunification exits than any of the other states, but the reunification levels among the remaining eight states still vary widely, from 45 percent to 67 percent of observed exits.

Exits to relatives also differ widely among states. Alabama and Maryland reported the most family discharges (31.6% and 20.4%), while California and Illinois each reported less than 3 percent family exits.(4) This is a difficult category to interpret, because it represents differences in foster care practice and in state data definitions. The child welfare agencies in Alabama and Maryland tended to use strategies that supported kinship placements outside of the formal foster care system, while California, Illinois and New York placed a substantial number of foster children in kinship arrangements within the foster care system. When exit to relatives and reunification are combined into a single category of "family exits," the variation between states is somewhat smaller than it is for either exit type considered alone. In part, the higher level of exit to relatives helps to explain why the reunification levels in Alabama and Maryland are very low. It should also be noted that children in care in California, New York, and Illinois (but in kin placements) may be similar to the exits to relative placements elsewhere.

Michigan has the highest rate of completed adoption with almost one-fifth (.193) of foster care spells ending with adoptive placement. Exits by adoption were least common in Alabama and Wisconsin (.054 and.065).

Few children exit foster care because they reach majority (or "age out"), with Maryland showing the highest proportion at .059.

Illinois (.126) and New York (.099) have the highest rates of runaway exits.

Overall, "other" exits represent almost 15 percent of all foster care spell endings. These are particularly common in Alabama (.306) and Missouri (.224). In both cases, most of the "other" exits are to unknown destinations. It is possible that many of these undefined exits are by reunification, but that the exit reason coded in the data system was represented in some unidentifiable way (such as by a change in legal status).

1.2 Exit Destination by Child Characteristics

Age at entry is the age of the child at the time of their initial placement into this spell in care. Reunification levels are highest for children who enter the foster care spell between the ages of 3 and 11 years. Over two-thirds of the exits for these children are by reunification. Reunification is least likely for children who enter as infants (39% of exits for children entering under 3 months of age) or as adolescents (43% of children 15-17 years).

The youngest children are much more likely than others to leave foster care via adoption (40% of exits for children <3 months, 21% for children 3-11 months). For the 0-3 month entry group, more spells end through adoption than through reunification. Adoption becomes a far less likely outcome as the age at entry to foster care increases. Older entrants are far more likely to leave foster care via runaway, by reaching majority, or for "other" reasons.

Age at exit. This variable is the age of the child at the end of the spell in care. While the previous finding shows that the youngest children are least likely to exit by reunification, those young entrants who do exit quickly (and thus are still very young at exit) have very high rates of reunification and high rates of relative placement. This is partly because the large number of infants that move to the adoptive track tend to remain in care for several years, and are older by the time they exit. Adoption is most likely for children who leave care at age 3-5, almost one quarter (.248) of whom exit by adoption. Aging out of care and exiting by runaway occur only for foster children in their teens. That these exit types are age-limited, and are not available exit options for young children.

Gender. The relationship between gender and the type of exit from foster care is very weak. Boys are somewhat more likely to remain in care longer, and slightly more likely to be reunified. Girls are slightly more likely to reach majority in care, and somewhat more likely than boys to run away from substitute care arrangements.

Race/Ethnicity. Hispanic foster children who leave foster care are more likely to be reunified (.639) than children from the other groups, and are the least likely to exit to relative care or by adoption. African American children who exit are the least likely to be reunified (.506), while they are the most likely to exit to relative care or adoption. The exit patterns of white children in foster care fall between these extremes, with a reunification proportion (.604) somewhat closer to the Hispanics than to the African Americans. White children, however, are more likely to leave foster care without experiencing long-term stays before exit. Just over 10 percent of the white children who entered care in 1990-94 remained in care at the end of 1997, compared to 18 percent of Hispanic children and 27 percent of African American children.

1.3 Exit Destination by Case Characteristics

Spell sequence is defined by whether this is the first foster care experience for the child or a reentry spell in care. Children exiting from their first spell in foster care are more likely to be reunified than children who have already left care and then reentered (.583 vs. .479). Children exiting first spells are also more likely to exit to relative care (.073 vs. .057) and to be adopted from care (.123 vs. .075). Runaway and "other" exits are far more common for reentrants (.180 and .169) than for children experiencing a first spell in care (.055 and .138).

Duration of spell is the length of stay in a completed spell in care. By the design of this study population, all spells with duration of less than three years are completed, while approximately three-fifths of the spells with duration of three years or more are censored. The proportion of reunifications decreases as the length of stay in foster care increases. For all spells that exit in less than 18 months, over two-thirds end with family reunification. In contrast, of the completed spells that lasted over 3 years, less than one-quarter (.224) ended through reunification. Exits to relatives follow a similar pattern to reunification. Adoptive exits and exits by aging out are most likely from long spells in foster care. One implication of shorter spells showing high levels of reunification is that reunification tends to occur more quickly than other exits.

Placement type is defined by the of primary type of care experienced during a spell. A spell is classified as kinship care,(5) congregate care (institution and group home), or nonrelative foster care if the child spent more than one-half of their days in care in that type of placement. If no care type was primary, then the spell is classified as being of "mixed" type. Among observed exits, children in kinship placements are the most likely to be reunified with their families (.632). This suggests that kinship care can in some cases work to maintain family ties during the period of removal from the home. This statistic must be interpreted cautiously, though, because children in kinship placement also tend to remain in care the longest, and were the least likely to exit at all within the study period. (6) Only two-thirds of the kinship placement spells were completed, while 85 percent of children in nonrelative foster placements and 93 percent of children in congregate care facilities have observed exits. Children exiting congregate care spells were the least likely to reunify (.514), and the most likely to exit by runaway (.198) or "other" exit (.180). Children in nonrelative foster care were much more likely to be adopted (.164) than children in other placements.

Placement stability is defined by the number of different physical placements (and caregivers) a child experiences within a spell in care. Reunification is far more likely from a foster care spell that involves placement in only one home or facility. Two-thirds (.635) of the children who exited from a one-placement spell returned home upon exit. As the number of placements within a spell increases, the reunification rate decreases. A similar pattern applies to relative exits.

Adoptions are more common among children exiting spells with multiple placements. One explanation is that adoptive placements usually require some movement, as children on the adoptive track are often shifted into a pre-adoptive foster care arrangements.

1.4 Summary

Table IIA.1presented nine sets of two-way tables. Taken together, they demonstrate that there is systematic and substantial variability in the patterns of exit from foster care spells. Of all nine variables, only gender did not produce an important qualification about the use of reunification to end spells in foster care. Variables with particularly strong relationships were state, age at entry, and spell duration. Some of the more important relationships are portrayed graphically in Figure B.

Figure B
Proportion of Observations Exit from Foster Care, By Destination and Selected Characteristics 1990-1994. Entries Observed Through December 31, 1997. Nine States.

Exit Type by Age at Entry
Figure B
Proportion of Observations Exit from Foster Care, By Destination and Selected
Characteristics 1990-1994. Entries Observed Through December 31, 1997. Nine
States. Exit Type by Age at Entry

Exit Type by Placement Type
Figure B
Proportion of Observations Exit from Foster Care, By Destination and Selected
Characteristics 1990-1994. Entries Observed Through December 31, 1997. Nine
States.Exit Type by Placement Type

Exit Type by Race/Ethnicity
Figure B
Proportion of Observations Exit from Foster Care, By Destination and Selected
Characteristics 1990-1994. Entries Observed Through December 31, 1997. Nine
States.Exit Type by Race/Ethnicity

Exit Type by Spell Duration
Figure B
Proportion of Observations Exit from Foster Care, By Destination and Selected
Characteristics 1990-1994. Entries Observed Through December 31, 1997. Nine
States.Exit Type by Spell Duration

As observed by their relationships with the other variables, it appears that reunification exits and family exits are related -- in that they tend to occur commonly to the same type of children and in similar case situations. These observations suggest that we might consider them together as permanency solutions. This will be examined in a following section where they are combined into a single category termed "family exits."

However, these bivariate findings also pose questions. One issue is the high interrelation among the independent variables (multicollinearity). For example, placement stability is highly correlated with duration and with placement type. The relationships seen in the two-way tables between exit type and any of these variables might easily be caused by one of the other related predictors, by a combination of the predictors, or by another related factor that is not described. To address this issue of multicollinearity, multivariate analyses will be presented later in the report that use the predictor variables simultaneously.

Another issue is interpreting what a variable actually represents. For example, age at entry can capture many dimensions of a foster care case. The high level for adoption of infants is partially due to child characteristics (e.g., their attractiveness on the adoption market). But it is also true that the family situations that lead to the removal of infants also involve a large share of cases where terminating parental rights and initiating the adoptive process is thought to be necessary. These tables demonstrate that reunification is complex and multidimensional, and we see that interpretations should be made with care.

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2. Timing of Foster Care Exits and Trends over Time

Exits from foster care are presented in this section in a format designed to encourage comparisons of the rates and the timing of foster care exit activity, both between states and across time. A series of 10 pages of tables, plus one summary, is employed.

Table IIB.1 Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entries to Foster Care
(Pooled information for all nine states combined)

Table IIB.1
Reunification Tracking Tables for Foster Care Spells. By year of Spell Start: 1990-1997. Nine States Pooled (AL,CA,IL,MD,MI,MO,NM,NY,WI)
Year A. Number of Exits in Interval(months) Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 9,506 8,979 6,671 8,831 6,748 5,086 6,598 14,019 66,438 74,162

1991

9,811 9,374 6,898 9,130 7,058 4,983 6,825 12,991 67,070 77,324

1992

9,801 8,861 6,685 9,673 7,229 5,143 6,951 10,896 65,239 78,580

1993

10,185 9,395 7,485 10,006 7,448 5,479 7,583 8,012 65,593 83,293

1994

10,464 9,823 7,753 11,017 8,074 6,061 8,146 3,539 64,877 91,057

1995

10,038 9,455 7,527 10,353 7,536 5,463 4,507   54,879 86,301

1996

10,885 9,118 7,598 10,532 6,326 1,675     46,134 94,013

1997

9,874 7,461 4,629 2,948         24,912 90,013
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Year

B. Number of Reunifications in Interval (months) Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+

1990

6,914 6,164 4,621 6,202 4,588 2,949 2,786 3,454 37,678

1991

6,932 6,237 4,603 6,234 4,687 2,803 2,839 2,924 37,259

1992

6,691 5,857 4,349 6,558 4,764 2,922 2,859 2,304 36,304

1993

7,109 6,152 4,941 6,837 4,896 3,047 2,945 1,673 37,600

1994

7,174 6,495 5,003 7,527 5,394 3,356 2,898 718 38,565

1995

6,707 6,062 4,885 6,807 4,845 2,735 1,517   33,558

1996

7,003 5,300 4,568 6,337 3,633 759     27,600

1997

5,794 4,018 2,531 1,499         13,842
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Year

C. Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.128 0.249 0.339 0.458 0.549 0.618 0.707 0.896

1991

0.127 0.248 0.337 0.455 0.547 0.611 0.699 0.867

1992

0.125 0.237 0.323 0.446 0.538 0.603 0.692 0.830

1993

0.122 0.235 0.325 0.445 0.534 0.600 0.691 0.787

1994

0.115 0.223 0.308 0.429 0.518 0.584 0.674 0.712

1995

0.116 0.226 0.313 0.433 0.520 0.584 0.636  

1996

0.116 0.213 0.294 0.406 0.473 0.491    

1997

0.110 0.193 0.244 0.277        
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Year

D. Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.093 0.176 0.239 0.322 0.384 0.424 0.461 0.508

1991

0.090 0.170 0.230 0.310 0.371 0.407 0.444 0.482

1992

0.085 0.160 0.215 0.298 0.359 0.396 0.433 0.462

1993

0.085 0.159 0.219 0.301 0.359 0.396 0.431 0.451

1994

0.079 0.150 0.205 0.288 0.347 0.384 0.416 0.424

1995

0.078 0.148 0.205 0.283 0.340 0.371 0.389  

1996

0.074 0.131 0.179 0.247 0.286 0.294    

1997

0.064 0.109 0.137 0.154        
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Year

E. Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36

1990

0.128 0.069 0.040 0.030 0.028 0.025 0.019

1991

0.127 0.069 0.040 0.030 0.028 0.024 0.019

1992

0.125 0.064 0.037 0.030 0.028 0.024 0.019

1993

0.122 0.064 0.039 0.030 0.027 0.024 0.019

1994

0.115 0.061 0.037 0.029 0.026 0.023 0.018

1995

0.116 0.062 0.038 0.029 0.026 0.022 0.010

1996

0.116 0.055 0.034 0.026 0.019 0.006  

1997

0.110 0.047 0.021 0.007      
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Year

F. Average Monthly Reunification Rate During Interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36

1990

0.093 0.048 0.028 0.021 0.019 0.015 0.008

1991

0.090 0.046 0.026 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.008

1992

0.085 0.043 0.024 0.021 0.018 0.013 0.008

1993

0.085 0.042 0.026 0.020 0.018 0.013 0.007

1994

0.079 0.040 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.013 0.006

1995

0.078 0.040 0.024 0.019 0.017 0.011 0.004

1996

0.074 0.032 0.021 0.016 0.011 0.003  

1997

0.064 0.025 0.012 0.004      
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Year

G. Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.727 0.707 0.704 0.703 0.699 0.686 0.653 0.567

1991

0.707 0.686 0.681 0.682 0.679 0.667 0.635 0.556

1992

0.683 0.672 0.667 0.670 0.668 0.657 0.626 0.556

1993

0.698 0.677 0.673 0.675 0.672 0.660 0.624 0.573

1994

0.686 0.674 0.666 0.671 0.670 0.657 0.617 0.594

1995

0.668 0.655 0.653 0.655 0.653 0.636 0.611  

1996

0.643 0.615 0.611 0.609 0.604 0.598    

1997

0.587 0.566 0.562 0.556        
Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).
By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico.

Tables IIB.2 Reunification Tracking Tables, by State
(Tables with the same information for each state separately, plus a summary page).

Table IIB.2_AL
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of Alabama

Year

Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+

1990

391 414 269 271 171 120 118 175 1,929 2,004

1991

433 392 269 268 147 90 107 155 1,861 1,960

1992

421 316 289 248 149 67 85 148 1,723 1,855

1993

295 377 195 248 126 65 102 79 1,487 1,692

1994

326 319 236 241 144 75 76 33 1,450 1,713

1995

286 301 164 213 98 84 58   1,204 1,582

1996

337 322 264 305 95 17     1,340 2,107

1997

332 292 160 90         874 2,101
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Number of Reunifications in Interval Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+

1990

180 135 100 73 31 23 17 19 578

1991

172 132 91 65 30 22 13 16 541

1992

171 84 72 73 31 9 13 12 465

1993

128 116 49 78 23 18 13 4 429

1994

94 109 73 61 38 21 11 3 410

1995

136 113 58 62 24 18 6   417

1996

112 99 79 86 26 3     405

1997

111 97 46 14         268
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.195 0.402 0.536 0.671 0.756 0.816 0.875 0.963

1991

0.221 0.421 0.558 0.695 0.770 0.816 0.870 0.949

1992

0.227 0.397 0.553 0.687 0.767 0.803 0.849 0.929

1993

0.174 0.397 0.512 0.659 0.733 0.772 0.832 0.879

1994

0.190 0.377 0.514 0.655 0.739 0.783 0.827 0.846

1995

0.181 0.371 0.475 0.609 0.671 0.724 0.761  

1996

0.160 0.313 0.438 0.583 0.628 0.636    

1997

0.158 0.297 0.373 0.416        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.090 0.157 0.207 0.244 0.259 0.270 0.279 0.288

1991

0.088 0.155 0.202 0.235 0.250 0.261 0.268 0.276

1992

0.092 0.137 0.176 0.216 0.232 0.237 0.244 0.251

1993

0.076 0.144 0.173 0.219 0.233 0.243 0.251 0.254

1994

0.055 0.119 0.161 0.197 0.219 0.231 0.238 0.239

1995

0.086 0.157 0.194 0.233 0.248 0.260 0.264  

1996

0.053 0.100 0.138 0.178 0.191 0.192    

1997

0.053 0.099 0.121 0.128        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.195 0.128 0.075 0.049 0.043 0.041 0.027
1991 0.221 0.128 0.079 0.052 0.041 0.033 0.025
1992 0.227 0.110 0.086 0.050 0.043 0.026 0.019
1993 0.174 0.135 0.064 0.050 0.036 0.024 0.022
1994 0.190 0.115 0.074 0.048 0.041 0.028 0.017
1995 0.181 0.116 0.055 0.043 0.026 0.027 0.011
1996 0.160 0.091 0.061 0.043 0.018 0.004  
1997 0.158 0.083 0.036 0.011      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.090 0.042 0.028 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.004
1991 0.088 0.043 0.027 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.003
1992 0.092 0.029 0.021 0.015 0.009 0.003 0.003
1993 0.076 0.042 0.016 0.016 0.007 0.007 0.003
1994 0.055 0.039 0.023 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.002
1995 0.086 0.044 0.019 0.012 0.006 0.006 0.001
1996 0.053 0.028 0.018 0.012 0.005 0.001  
1997 0.053 0.027 0.010 0.002      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.460 0.391 0.386 0.363 0.342 0.331 0.319 0.300
1991 0.397 0.368 0.361 0.338 0.325 0.320 0.308 0.291
1992 0.406 0.346 0.319 0.314 0.303 0.295 0.288 0.270
1993 0.434 0.363 0.338 0.333 0.317 0.315 0.302 0.289
1994 0.288 0.315 0.313 0.300 0.296 0.295 0.287 0.283
1995 0.476 0.424 0.409 0.383 0.370 0.359 0.346  
1996 0.332 0.320 0.314 0.306 0.304 0.302    
1997 0.334 0.333 0.324 0.307        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_CA
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of California
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 3,401 2,878 1,916 3,351 2,773 2,133 2,214 3,978 22,644 26,550
1991 3,364 3,062 2,063 3,298 2,647 1,962 2,181 3,449 22,026 26,373
1992 3,330 3,021 1,934 3,331 2,846 2,069 2,366 3,035 21,932 27,653
1993 3,643 3,309 2,443 3,596 3,019 2,190 2,572 2,303 23,075 30,313
1994 3,586 3,620 2,665 3,966 3,276 2,489 2,624 1,126 23,352 33,084
1995 3,476 3,304 2,540 3,581 2,898 2,002 1,614   19,415 32,572
1996 3,397 2,634 2,271 3,172 2,390 752     14,616 35,474
1997 2,577 1,786 1,039 1,084         6,486 33,372
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+ Total Reunifs
1990 2,997 2,483 1,568 2,686 2,067 1,242 778 1,070 14,891
1991 3,005 2,593 1,643 2,584 1,912 1,101 782 833 14,453
1992 2,917 2,570 1,534 2,580 2,116 1,259 916 659 14,551
1993 3,203 2,756 1,900 2,866 2,224 1,299 929 395 15,572
1994 3,153 3,049 2,108 3,179 2,475 1,537 817 125 16,443
1995 2,985 2,755 2,022 2,792 2,127 1,021 329   14,031
1996 2,954 2,106 1,669 2,100 1,377 305     10,511
1997 2,128 1,384 699 581         4,792
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.128 0.236 0.309 0.435 0.539 0.620 0.703 0.853
1991 0.128 0.244 0.322 0.447 0.547 0.622 0.704 0.835
1992 0.120 0.230 0.300 0.420 0.523 0.598 0.683 0.793
1993 0.120 0.229 0.310 0.429 0.528 0.600 0.685 0.761
1994 0.108 0.218 0.298 0.418 0.517 0.592 0.672 0.706
1995 0.107 0.208 0.286 0.396 0.485 0.547 0.596  
1996 0.096 0.170 0.234 0.323 0.391 0.412    
1997 0.077 0.131 0.162 0.194        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.113 0.206 0.265 0.367 0.444 0.491 0.521 0.561
1991 0.114 0.212 0.275 0.373 0.445 0.487 0.516 0.548
1992 0.105 0.198 0.254 0.347 0.424 0.469 0.502 0.526
1993 0.106 0.197 0.259 0.354 0.427 0.470 0.501 0.514
1994 0.095 0.187 0.251 0.347 0.422 0.469 0.493 0.497
1995 0.092 0.176 0.238 0.324 0.389 0.421 0.431  
1996 0.083 0.143 0.190 0.249 0.288 0.296    
1997 0.064 0.105 0.126 0.144        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.128 0.062 0.032 0.030 0.031 0.029 0.018
1991 0.128 0.067 0.034 0.031 0.030 0.027 0.018
1992 0.120 0.062 0.030 0.029 0.030 0.026 0.018
1993 0.120 0.062 0.035 0.029 0.029 0.026 0.018
1994 0.108 0.061 0.034 0.028 0.028 0.026 0.016
1995 0.107 0.057 0.033 0.026 0.025 0.020 0.009
1996 0.096 0.041 0.026 0.019 0.017 0.006  
1997 0.077 0.029 0.012 0.006      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36

c

0.113 0.054 0.026 0.024 0.023 0.017 0.006

1991

0.114 0.056 0.027 0.024 0.022 0.015 0.007

1992

0.105 0.053 0.024 0.022 0.022 0.016 0.007

1993

0.106 0.052 0.027 0.023 0.021 0.015 0.006

1994

0.095 0.052 0.027 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.005

1995

0.092 0.047 0.026 0.020 0.018 0.010 0.002

1996

0.083 0.033 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.002  

1997

0.064 0.022 0.008 0.003      

Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.881 0.873 0.860 0.843 0.824 0.793 0.740 0.658
1991 0.893 0.871 0.853 0.834 0.813 0.783 0.733 0.656
1992 0.876 0.864 0.847 0.827 0.810 0.785 0.735 0.663
1993 0.879 0.857 0.837 0.826 0.809 0.783 0.731 0.675
1994 0.879 0.861 0.842 0.830 0.816 0.791 0.734 0.704
1995 0.859 0.847 0.833 0.818 0.803 0.770 0.723  
1996 0.870 0.839 0.811 0.769 0.736 0.719    
1997 0.826 0.805 0.780 0.739        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_IL
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of Illinois
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 742 738 631 735 521 426 577 1,939 6,309 7,662
1991 736 809 638 946 671 447 638 2,465 7,350 10,146
1992 798 720 688 917 618 484 892 2,399 7,516 11,238
1993 744 695 617 867 722 592 1,090 1,791 7,118 11,935
1994 865 750 717 1,120 781 821 1,337 903 7,294 15,373
1995 822 788 747 1,074 760 715 802   5,708 13,129
1996 741 767 622 967 582 161     3,840 12,077
1997 627 621 380 240         1,868 9,372
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 534 552 492 515 361 255 239 292 3,240
1991 488 548 460 654 432 255 263 387 3,487
1992 445 454 518 615 361 266 381 473 3,513
1993 431 456 407 523 456 320 447 435 3,475
1994 510 477 488 724 466 454 577 250 3,946
1995 470 459 480 646 468 421 393   3,337
1996 406 458 366 619 384 88     2,321
1997 334 359 222 159         1,074
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.097 0.193 0.276 0.371 0.439 0.495 0.570 0.823
1991 0.073 0.152 0.215 0.308 0.375 0.419 0.481 0.724
1992 0.071 0.135 0.196 0.278 0.333 0.376 0.455 0.669
1993 0.062 0.121 0.172 0.245 0.305 0.355 0.446 0.596
1994 0.056 0.105 0.152 0.225 0.275 0.329 0.416 0.474
1995 0.063 0.123 0.180 0.261 0.319 0.374 0.435  
1996 0.061 0.125 0.176 0.256 0.305 0.318    
1997 0.067 0.133 0.174 0.199        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.070 0.142 0.206 0.273 0.320 0.354 0.385 0.423

1991

0.048 0.102 0.147 0.212 0.254 0.280 0.306 0.344

1992

0.040 0.080 0.126 0.181 0.213 0.237 0.271 0.313

1993

0.036 0.074 0.108 0.152 0.190 0.217 0.255 0.291

1994

0.033 0.064 0.096 0.143 0.173 0.203 0.240 0.257

1995

0.036 0.071 0.107 0.157 0.192 0.224 0.254  

1996

0.034 0.072 0.102 0.153 0.185 0.192    

1997

0.036 0.074 0.098 0.115        

Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.097 0.053 0.034 0.022 0.018 0.017 0.012
1991 0.073 0.043 0.025 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.009
1992 0.071 0.034 0.024 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.011
1993 0.062 0.031 0.020 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.012
1994 0.056 0.026 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.011
1995 0.063 0.032 0.022 0.017 0.013 0.013 0.008
1996 0.061 0.034 0.020 0.016 0.011 0.003  
1997 0.067 0.036 0.016 0.005      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.070 0.040 0.027 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.005
1991 0.048 0.029 0.018 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.004
1992 0.040 0.022 0.018 0.011 0.007 0.006 0.005
1993 0.036 0.020 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.005
1994 0.033 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.005
1995 0.036 0.019 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.004
1996 0.034 0.020 0.012 0.010 0.007 0.002  
1997 0.036 0.021 0.009 0.003      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.720 0.734 0.748 0.735 0.729 0.714 0.675 0.514
1991 0.663 0.671 0.685 0.687 0.679 0.668 0.635 0.474
1992 0.558 0.592 0.642 0.651 0.640 0.629 0.594 0.467
1993 0.579 0.616 0.629 0.622 0.624 0.612 0.571 0.488
1994 0.590 0.611 0.633 0.637 0.630 0.617 0.578 0.541
1995 0.572 0.577 0.598 0.599 0.602 0.600 0.585  
1996 0.548 0.573 0.577 0.597 0.607 0.604    
1997 0.533 0.555 0.562 0.575        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_MD
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, FY 1990-1997, State of Maryland
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 388 389 223 220 183 139 239 465 2,246 2,454
1991 408 493 261 235 221 152 255 390 2,415 2,707
1992 340 396 205 285 229 176 255 406 2,292 2,742
1993 321 414 202 278 199 159 255 320 2,148 2,736
1994 440 474 249 343 232 190 324 138 2,390 3,364
1995 336 398 224 300 249 225 156   1,888 3,123
1996 437 433 236 299 196 59     1,660 3,103
1997 445 379 163 90         1,077 3,182
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+ Total Reunifs
1990 220 227 119 104 87 57 74 89 977
1991 242 303 149 118 89 65 83 70 1,119
1992 192 226 98 138 98 57 72 68 949
1993 172 248 133 145 101 54 74 44 971
1994 265 262 124 166 103 82 102 35 1,139
1995 166 205 113 138 123 108 50   903
1996 227 209 116 150 91 26     819
1997 192 190 80 38         500
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.158 0.317 0.407 0.497 0.572 0.628 0.726 0.915
1991 0.151 0.333 0.429 0.516 0.598 0.654 0.748 0.892
1992 0.124 0.268 0.343 0.447 0.531 0.595 0.688 0.836
1993 0.117 0.269 0.342 0.444 0.517 0.575 0.668 0.785
1994 0.131 0.272 0.346 0.448 0.517 0.573 0.669 0.710
1995 0.108 0.235 0.307 0.403 0.483 0.555 0.605  
1996 0.141 0.280 0.356 0.453 0.516 0.535    
1997 0.140 0.259 0.310 0.338        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.090 0.182 0.231 0.273 0.308 0.332 0.362 0.398
1991 0.089 0.201 0.256 0.300 0.333 0.357 0.388 0.413
1992 0.070 0.152 0.188 0.239 0.274 0.295 0.321 0.346
1993 0.063 0.154 0.202 0.255 0.292 0.312 0.339 0.355
1994 0.079 0.157 0.194 0.243 0.273 0.298 0.328 0.339
1995 0.053 0.119 0.155 0.199 0.239 0.273 0.289  
1996 0.073 0.141 0.178 0.226 0.256 0.264    
1997 0.060 0.120 0.145 0.157        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.158 0.094 0.044 0.025 0.025 0.022 0.022
1991 0.151 0.107 0.048 0.025 0.028 0.023 0.023
1992 0.124 0.082 0.034 0.026 0.025 0.023 0.019
1993 0.117 0.086 0.034 0.026 0.022 0.020 0.018
1994 0.131 0.081 0.034 0.026 0.021 0.019 0.019
1995 0.108 0.071 0.031 0.023 0.022 0.023 0.009
1996 0.141 0.081 0.035 0.025 0.019 0.007  
1997 0.140 0.069 0.023 0.007      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36

1990

0.090 0.055 0.024 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.007

1991

0.089 0.066 0.028 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.007

1992

0.070 0.047 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.005

1993

0.063 0.051 0.022 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.005

1994

0.079 0.045 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.006

1995

0.053 0.037 0.016 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.003

1996

0.073 0.039 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.003  

1997

0.060 0.035 0.011 0.003      

Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.567 0.575 0.566 0.549 0.540 0.528 0.499 0.435

1991

0.593 0.605 0.597 0.581 0.557 0.546 0.518 0.463

1992

0.565 0.568 0.548 0.533 0.517 0.496 0.467 0.414

1993

0.536 0.571 0.590 0.574 0.565 0.542 0.507 0.452

1994

0.602 0.577 0.560 0.542 0.529 0.520 0.490 0.477

1995

0.494 0.505 0.505 0.494 0.494 0.492 0.478  

1996

0.519 0.501 0.499 0.500 0.495 0.493    

1997

0.431 0.464 0.468 0.464        

Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table E IIB.2_MI
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of Michigan
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 566 799 645 840 660 467 734 941 5,652 5,776
1991 686 867 688 878 752 548 793 952 6,164 6,333
1992 664 755 659 924 688 483 732 815 5,720 5,956
1993 738 782 698 930 628 527 944 748 5,995 6,405
1994 802 867 679 1,036 813 681 1,087 291 6,256 7,067
1995 744 932 790 1,055 833 739 515 5,608 7,074
1996 854 985 800 1,199 697 206     4,741 7,733
1997 924 1,024 699 365         3,012 8,820
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 326 445 415 606 404 235 258 171 2,860
1991 393 492 440 596 460 269 211 155 3,016
1992 342 420 414 626 398 223 208 125 2,756
1993 404 419 432 599 326 209 268 122 2,779
1994 434 472 369 635 488 303 284 46 3,031
1995 415 484 467 635 427 276 144   2,848
1996 395 457 407 627 373 85     2,344
1997 315 392 294 144         1,145
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.098 0.236 0.348 0.493 0.608 0.689 0.816 0.979
1991 0.108 0.245 0.354 0.492 0.611 0.698 0.823 0.973
1992 0.111 0.238 0.349 0.504 0.620 0.701 0.824 0.960
1993 0.115 0.237 0.346 0.491 0.590 0.672 0.819 0.936
1994 0.113 0.236 0.332 0.479 0.594 0.690 0.844 0.885
1995 0.105 0.237 0.349 0.498 0.615 0.720 0.793  
1996 0.110 0.238 0.341 0.496 0.586 0.613    
1997 0.105 0.221 0.300 0.341        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.056 0.133 0.205 0.310 0.380 0.421 0.466 0.495
1991 0.062 0.140 0.209 0.303 0.376 0.418 0.452 0.476
1992 0.057 0.128 0.197 0.303 0.369 0.407 0.442 0.463
1993 0.063 0.128 0.196 0.289 0.340 0.373 0.415 0.434
1994 0.061 0.128 0.180 0.270 0.339 0.382 0.422 0.429
1995 0.059 0.127 0.193 0.283 0.343 0.382 0.403  
1996 0.051 0.110 0.163 0.244 0.292 0.303    
1997 0.036 0.080 0.113 0.130        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.098 0.077 0.049 0.037 0.038 0.034 0.034
1991 0.108 0.077 0.048 0.036 0.039 0.037 0.035
1992 0.111 0.071 0.048 0.040 0.039 0.036 0.034
1993 0.115 0.069 0.048 0.037 0.032 0.033 0.037
1994 0.113 0.069 0.042 0.037 0.037 0.040 0.041
1995 0.105 0.074 0.049 0.038 0.039 0.045 0.022
1996 0.110 0.072 0.045 0.039 0.030 0.011  
1997 0.105 0.065 0.034 0.010      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.056 0.043 0.031 0.027 0.023 0.017 0.012
1991 0.062 0.044 0.031 0.024 0.024 0.018 0.009
1992 0.057 0.040 0.030 0.027 0.022 0.016 0.010
1993 0.063 0.037 0.029 0.024 0.017 0.013 0.011
1994 0.061 0.038 0.023 0.022 0.022 0.018 0.011
1995 0.059 0.038 0.029 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.006
1996 0.051 0.033 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.004  
1997 0.036 0.025 0.014 0.004      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.576 0.565 0.590 0.629 0.626 0.611 0.571 0.506
1991 0.573 0.570 0.591 0.616 0.615 0.600 0.549 0.489
1992 0.515 0.537 0.566 0.600 0.596 0.581 0.536 0.482
1993 0.547 0.541 0.566 0.589 0.577 0.555 0.506 0.464
1994 0.541 0.543 0.543 0.564 0.571 0.554 0.500 0.484
1995 0.558 0.536 0.554 0.568 0.558 0.531 0.508  
1996 0.463 0.463 0.477 0.491 0.498 0.494    
1997 0.341 0.363 0.378 0.380        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_MO
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of Missouri
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 651 738 393 467 339 197 297 542 3,624 3,780
1991 685 764 507 492 357 247 379 640 4,071 4,332
1992 862 796 455 608 405 290 403 489 4,308 4,647
1993 800 737 536 670 429 300 396 391 4,259 4,850
1994 774 702 517 619 445 319 527 149 4,052 5,020
1995 827 725 524 653 494 330 240   3,793 5,096
1996 939 709 536 684 407 81     3,356 5,708
1997 832 535 343 179         1,889 5,661
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 414 447 228 244 187 102 115 108 1,845
1991 446 427 319 273 179 122 158 156 2,080
1992 558 472 260 334 230 138 177 100 2,269
1993 546 422 310 406 258 149 159 90 2,340
1994 482 407 305 373 261 170 170 30 2,198
1995 538 406 308 382 293 134 66   2,127
1996 577 404 327 331 171 37     1,847
1997 373 179 147 67         766
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.172 0.367 0.471 0.595 0.685 0.737 0.815 0.959
1991 0.158 0.334 0.452 0.565 0.648 0.705 0.792 0.940
1992 0.185 0.357 0.455 0.586 0.673 0.735 0.822 0.927
1993 0.165 0.317 0.427 0.566 0.654 0.716 0.798 0.878
1994 0.154 0.294 0.397 0.520 0.609 0.673 0.777 0.807
1995 0.162 0.305 0.407 0.536 0.632 0.697 0.744  
1996 0.165 0.289 0.383 0.502 0.574 0.588    
1997 0.147 0.241 0.302 0.334        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.110 0.228 0.288 0.353 0.402 0.429 0.460 0.488

1991

0.103 0.202 0.275 0.338 0.380 0.408 0.444 0.480

1992

0.120 0.222 0.278 0.349 0.399 0.429 0.467 0.488

1993

0.113 0.200 0.264 0.347 0.400 0.431 0.464 0.482

1994

0.096 0.177 0.238 0.312 0.364 0.398 0.432 0.438

1995

0.106 0.185 0.246 0.321 0.378 0.404 0.417  

1996

0.101 0.172 0.229 0.287 0.317 0.324    

1997

0.066 0.098 0.123 0.135        

Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.172 0.118 0.055 0.039 0.037 0.028 0.025
1991 0.158 0.105 0.059 0.035 0.032 0.027 0.025
1992 0.185 0.105 0.051 0.040 0.035 0.032 0.027
1993 0.165 0.091 0.054 0.040 0.034 0.030 0.024
1994 0.154 0.083 0.049 0.034 0.031 0.027 0.027
1995 0.162 0.085 0.049 0.036 0.035 0.029 0.013
1996 0.165 0.074 0.044 0.032 0.024 0.006  
1997 0.147 0.055 0.027 0.008      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.110 0.071 0.032 0.020 0.020 0.014 0.010
1991 0.103 0.059 0.037 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.010
1992 0.120 0.062 0.029 0.022 0.020 0.015 0.012
1993 0.113 0.052 0.031 0.024 0.020 0.015 0.010
1994 0.096 0.048 0.029 0.021 0.018 0.014 0.009
1995 0.106 0.048 0.029 0.021 0.021 0.012 0.004
1996 0.101 0.042 0.027 0.016 0.010 0.003  
1997 0.066 0.019 0.011 0.003      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.636 0.620 0.611 0.593 0.587 0.582 0.564 0.509
1991 0.651 0.602 0.609 0.598 0.586 0.579 0.561 0.511
1992 0.647 0.621 0.611 0.597 0.593 0.583 0.568 0.527
1993 0.683 0.630 0.616 0.614 0.612 0.602 0.582 0.549
1994 0.623 0.602 0.599 0.600 0.598 0.592 0.555 0.542
1995 0.651 0.608 0.603 0.599 0.598 0.580 0.561  
1996 0.614 0.595 0.599 0.571 0.553 0.550    
1997 0.448 0.404 0.409 0.406        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_NM
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, FY 1990-1997, State of New Mexico
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 293 190 159 123 71 43 80 98 1,057 1,068
1991 299 190 124 141 94 72 84 130 1,134 1,171
1992 293 181 143 176 99 71 108 131 1,202 1,247
1993 301 183 183 156 116 68 104 65 1,176 1,249
1994 274 199 132 165 88 61 87 39 1,045 1,154
1995 281 206 145 183 119 79 38   1,051 1,288
1996 283 171 119 168 80 17     838 1,256
1997 290 126 71 54         541 1,230
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 209 115 109 85 52 25 22 7 624
1991 226 123 77 96 59 31 23 13 648
1992 217 136 91 111 67 37 35 15 709
1993 220 130 137 108 73 33 18 4 723
1994 216 146 89 103 49 15 16 4 638
1995 219 135 97 114 68 45 17   695
1996 219 106 62 102 28 6     523
1997 223 89 48 28         388
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.274 0.452 0.601 0.716 0.783 0.823 0.898 0.990
1991 0.255 0.418 0.523 0.644 0.724 0.786 0.857 0.968
1992 0.235 0.380 0.495 0.636 0.715 0.772 0.859 0.964
1993 0.241 0.388 0.534 0.659 0.752 0.806 0.890 0.942
1994 0.237 0.410 0.524 0.667 0.744 0.796 0.872 0.906
1995 0.218 0.378 0.491 0.633 0.725 0.786 0.816  
1996 0.225 0.361 0.456 0.590 0.654 0.667    
1997 0.236 0.338 0.396 0.440        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.196 0.303 0.405 0.485 0.534 0.557 0.578 0.584
1991 0.193 0.298 0.364 0.446 0.496 0.523 0.542 0.553
1992 0.174 0.283 0.356 0.445 0.499 0.528 0.557 0.569
1993 0.176 0.280 0.390 0.476 0.535 0.561 0.576 0.579
1994 0.187 0.314 0.391 0.480 0.523 0.536 0.549 0.553
1995 0.170 0.275 0.350 0.439 0.491 0.526 0.540  
1996 0.174 0.259 0.308 0.389 0.412 0.416    
1997 0.181 0.254 0.293 0.315        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.274 0.123 0.091 0.048 0.039 0.031 0.035
1991 0.255 0.109 0.061 0.042 0.038 0.037 0.028
1992 0.235 0.095 0.062 0.047 0.036 0.033 0.032
1993 0.241 0.097 0.080 0.045 0.045 0.037 0.036
1994 0.237 0.113 0.065 0.050 0.038 0.034 0.031
1995 0.218 0.102 0.060 0.046 0.042 0.037 0.012
1996 0.225 0.088 0.049 0.041 0.026 0.007  
1997 0.236 0.067 0.029 0.012      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.196 0.074 0.062 0.033 0.029 0.018 0.010
1991 0.193 0.071 0.038 0.029 0.024 0.016 0.008
1992 0.174 0.071 0.039 0.029 0.025 0.017 0.010
1993 0.176 0.069 0.060 0.031 0.029 0.018 0.006
1994 0.187 0.083 0.044 0.031 0.021 0.008 0.006
1995 0.170 0.067 0.040 0.029 0.024 0.021 0.005
1996 0.174 0.054 0.026 0.025 0.009 0.002  
1997 0.181 0.047 0.020 0.006      

Year

Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.713 0.671 0.674 0.677 0.682 0.677 0.643 0.590

1991

0.756 0.714 0.695 0.692 0.685 0.665 0.632 0.571

1992

0.741 0.745 0.720 0.700 0.697 0.684 0.648 0.590

1993

0.731 0.723 0.730 0.723 0.711 0.696 0.647 0.615

1994

0.788 0.765 0.745 0.719 0.703 0.672 0.630 0.611

1995

0.779 0.727 0.714 0.693 0.678 0.669 0.661  

1996

0.774 0.716 0.675 0.660 0.630 0.624    

1997

0.769 0.750 0.739 0.717        

Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_NY
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of New York
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 2,438 2,210 1,802 2,132 1,677 1,311 2,004 5,279 18,853 20,586
1991 2,491 2,122 1,672 2,089 1,687 1,224 1,927 4,322 17,534 19,549
1992 2,339 1,968 1,581 2,298 1,672 1,186 1,789 3,118 15,951 18,304
1993 2,398 2,005 1,724 2,284 1,723 1,269 1,788 2,045 15,236 18,410
1994 2,468 1,934 1,618 2,380 1,726 1,124 1,742 718 13,710 17,909
1995 2,332 1,904 1,504 2,241 1,598 1,006 892   11,477 16,448
1996 3,016 2,176 1,876 2,726 1,447 298     11,539 20,179
1997 3,026 1,954 1,261 612         6,853 20,741
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval Total Reunifs
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 1,573 1,327 1,140 1,388 1,152 853 1,105 1,437 9,975
1991 1,454 1,175 946 1,288 1,166 792 988 1,130 8,939
1992 1,332 1,060 808 1,461 1,093 732 864 755 8,105
1993 1,366 1,001 906 1,354 1,072 766 879 514 7,858
1994 1,342 911 753 1,382 1,109 599 777 199 7,072
1995 1,162 899 712 1,307 983 553 431   6,047
1996 1,561 911 965 1,651 923 168     6,179
1997 1,581 896 647 323         3,447
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.118 0.226 0.313 0.417 0.498 0.562 0.659 0.916
1991 0.127 0.236 0.321 0.428 0.515 0.577 0.676 0.897
1992 0.128 0.235 0.322 0.447 0.539 0.603 0.701 0.871
1993 0.130 0.239 0.333 0.457 0.550 0.619 0.717 0.828
1994 0.138 0.246 0.336 0.469 0.565 0.628 0.725 0.766
1995 0.142 0.258 0.349 0.485 0.582 0.644 0.698  
1996 0.149 0.257 0.350 0.485 0.557 0.572    
1997 0.146 0.240 0.301 0.330        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.076 0.141 0.196 0.264 0.320 0.361 0.415 0.485
1991 0.074 0.134 0.183 0.249 0.308 0.349 0.399 0.457
1992 0.073 0.131 0.175 0.255 0.314 0.354 0.402 0.443
1993 0.074 0.129 0.178 0.251 0.310 0.351 0.399 0.427
1994 0.075 0.126 0.168 0.245 0.307 0.340 0.384 0.395
1995 0.071 0.125 0.169 0.248 0.308 0.341 0.368  
1996 0.077 0.123 0.170 0.252 0.298 0.306    
1997 0.076 0.119 0.151 0.166        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.118 0.061 0.038 0.025 0.023 0.021 0.019
1991 0.127 0.062 0.037 0.026 0.025 0.022 0.019
1992 0.128 0.062 0.038 0.031 0.028 0.023 0.021
1993 0.130 0.063 0.041 0.031 0.029 0.026 0.021
1994 0.138 0.063 0.040 0.033 0.030 0.024 0.022
1995 0.142 0.067 0.041 0.035 0.031 0.024 0.013
1996 0.149 0.063 0.042 0.035 0.023 0.006  
1997 0.146 0.055 0.027 0.007      

Year Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.076 0.037 0.024 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.010
1991 0.074 0.034 0.021 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.010
1992 0.073 0.033 0.019 0.020 0.018 0.014 0.010
1993 0.074 0.031 0.022 0.018 0.018 0.015 0.010
1994 0.075 0.029 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.013 0.010
1995 0.071 0.032 0.019 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.006
1996 0.077 0.027 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.003  
1997 0.076 0.025 0.014 0.004      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year

Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+

1990

0.645 0.624 0.626 0.632 0.641 0.642 0.629 0.529

1991

0.584 0.570 0.569 0.581 0.599 0.604 0.591 0.510

1992

0.569 0.555 0.543 0.569 0.584 0.587 0.573 0.508

1993

0.570 0.538 0.534 0.550 0.562 0.567 0.557 0.516

1994

0.544 0.512 0.499 0.522 0.543 0.542 0.529 0.516

1995

0.498 0.487 0.483 0.511 0.529 0.531 0.527  

1996

0.518 0.476 0.486 0.520 0.535 0.535    

1997

0.522 0.497 0.501 0.503        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2_WI
Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual Entry Cohorts to Foster Care, 1990-1997, State of Wisconsin
Year Number of Exits in Interval Total Exits Total Entries
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+
1990 636 623 633 692 353 250 335 602 4,124 4,282
1991 709 675 676 783 482 241 461 488 4,515 4,753
1992 754 708 731 886 523 317 321 355 4,595 4,938
1993 945 893 887 977 486 309 332 270 5,099 5,703
1994 929 958 940 1147 569 301 342 142 5,328 6,373
1995 934 897 889 1053 487 283 192   4,735 5,989
1996 881 921 874 1012 432 84     4,204 6,376
1997 821 744 513 234         2,312 5,534
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Number of Reunifications in Interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36 36+ Total Reunifs
1990 461 433 450 501 247 157 178 261 2,688
1991 506 444 478 560 360 146 318 164 2,976
1992 517 435 554 620 370 201 193 97 2,987
1993 639 604 667 758 363 199 158 65 3,453
1994 678 662 694 904 405 175 144 26 3,688
1995 616 606 628 731 332 159 81   3,153
1996 552 550 577 671 260 41     2,651
1997 537 432 348 145         1,462
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.149 0.294 0.442 0.603 0.686 0.744 0.823 0.963
1991 0.149 0.291 0.433 0.598 0.700 0.750 0.847 0.950
1992 0.153 0.296 0.444 0.624 0.729 0.794 0.859 0.931
1993 0.166 0.322 0.478 0.649 0.734 0.789 0.847 0.894
1994 0.146 0.296 0.444 0.624 0.713 0.760 0.814 0.836
1995 0.156 0.306 0.454 0.630 0.711 0.759 0.791  
1996 0.138 0.283 0.420 0.578 0.646 0.659    
1997 0.148 0.283 0.375 0.418        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.108 0.209 0.314 0.431 0.489 0.525 0.567 0.628
1991 0.106 0.200 0.300 0.418 0.494 0.525 0.592 0.626
1992 0.105 0.193 0.305 0.431 0.505 0.546 0.585 0.605
1993 0.112 0.218 0.335 0.468 0.531 0.566 0.594 0.605
1994 0.106 0.210 0.319 0.461 0.525 0.552 0.575 0.579
1995 0.103 0.204 0.309 0.431 0.486 0.513 0.526  
1996 0.087 0.173 0.263 0.369 0.409 0.416    
1997 0.097 0.175 0.238 0.264        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.149 0.085 0.070 0.048 0.035 0.031 0.025
1991 0.149 0.083 0.067 0.048 0.042 0.028 0.032
1992 0.153 0.085 0.070 0.054 0.047 0.040 0.026
1993 0.166 0.094 0.076 0.055 0.040 0.034 0.023
1994 0.146 0.088 0.070 0.054 0.040 0.027 0.019
1995 0.156 0.089 0.071 0.054 0.037 0.027 0.011
1996 0.138 0.084 0.064 0.046 0.027 0.006  
1997 0.148 0.079 0.043 0.011      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.108 0.059 0.050 0.035 0.024 0.019 0.014
1991 0.106 0.055 0.047 0.035 0.031 0.017 0.022
1992 0.105 0.052 0.053 0.038 0.033 0.025 0.016
1993 0.112 0.063 0.058 0.042 0.030 0.022 0.011
1994 0.106 0.061 0.052 0.042 0.028 0.016 0.008
1995 0.103 0.060 0.050 0.037 0.025 0.015 0.005
1996 0.087 0.050 0.042 0.030 0.016 0.003  
1997 0.097 0.046 0.029 0.007      
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Year Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative)
<1 <3 <6 <12 <18 <24 <36 36+
1990 0.725 0.710 0.710 0.714 0.712 0.706 0.689 0.652
1991 0.714 0.686 0.693 0.699 0.706 0.699 0.698 0.659
1992 0.686 0.651 0.687 0.690 0.693 0.688 0.682 0.650
1993 0.676 0.676 0.701 0.721 0.724 0.718 0.702 0.677
1994 0.730 0.710 0.719 0.739 0.736 0.726 0.706 0.692
1995 0.660 0.667 0.680 0.684 0.684 0.676 0.666  
1996 0.627 0.612 0.627 0.637 0.633 0.631    
1997 0.654 0.619 0.634 0.632        
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit of period of observation.
Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable).

Table IIB.2
Summary Average Monthly Reunification Rates, For 9-states and Pooled Total.

For children who are in substitute care at beginning of time interval.
All 9 States Average Monthly Reunification Rate During Interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.093 0.047 0.028 0.021 0.019 0.015 0.008
1991 0.090 0.046 0.026 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.008
1992 0.085 0.043 0.024 0.021 0.018 0.013 0.008
1993 0.085 0.042 0.026 0.020 0.018 0.013 0.007
1994 0.079 0.040 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.013 0.006
1995 0.078 0.040 0.024 0.019 0.016 0.011 0.003
1996 0.075 0.032 0.021 0.016 0.011 0.003  
1997 0.063 0.025 0.011 0.004      

AL Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.090 0.042 0.028 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.004
1991 0.088 0.043 0.027 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.003
1992 0.092 0.029 0.021 0.015 0.009 0.003 0.003
1993 0.076 0.042 0.016 0.016 0.007 0.007 0.003
1994 0.055 0.039 0.023 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.002
1995 0.086 0.044 0.019 0.012 0.006 0.006 0.001
1996 0.053 0.028 0.018 0.012 0.005 0.001  
1997 0.053 0.027 0.010 0.002      

CA Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.113 0.054 0.026 0.024 0.023 0.017 0.006
1991 0.114 0.056 0.027 0.024 0.022 0.015 0.007
1992 0.105 0.053 0.024 0.022 0.022 0.016 0.007
1993 0.106 0.052 0.027 0.023 0.021 0.015 0.006
1994 0.095 0.052 0.027 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.005
1995 0.092 0.047 0.026 0.020 0.018 0.010 0.002
1996 0.083 0.033 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.002  
1997 0.064 0.022 0.008 0.003      

IL Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.070 0.040 0.027 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.005
1991 0.048 0.029 0.018 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.004
1992 0.040 0.022 0.018 0.011 0.007 0.006 0.005
1993 0.036 0.020 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.005
1994 0.033 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.005
1995 0.036 0.019 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.004
1996 0.034 0.020 0.012 0.010 0.007 0.002  
1997 0.036 0.021 0.009 0.003      

MD Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.090 0.055 0.024 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.007
1991 0.089 0.066 0.028 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.007
1992 0.070 0.047 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.005
1993 0.063 0.051 0.022 0.013 0.011 0.007 0.005
1994 0.079 0.045 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.006
1995 0.053 0.037 0.016 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.003
1996 0.073 0.039 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.003  
1997 0.060 0.035 0.011 0.003      

MI Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.056 0.043 0.031 0.027 0.023 0.017 0.012
1991 0.062 0.044 0.031 0.024 0.024 0.018 0.009
1992 0.057 0.040 0.030 0.027 0.022 0.016 0.010
1993 0.063 0.037 0.029 0.024 0.017 0.013 0.011
1994 0.061 0.038 0.023 0.022 0.022 0.018 0.011
1995 0.059 0.038 0.029 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.006
1996 0.051 0.033 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.004  
1997 0.036 0.025 0.014 0.004      

MO Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.110 0.071 0.032 0.020 0.020 0.014 0.010
1991 0.103 0.059 0.037 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.010
1992 0.120 0.062 0.029 0.022 0.020 0.015 0.012
1993 0.113 0.052 0.031 0.024 0.020 0.015 0.010
1994 0.096 0.048 0.029 0.021 0.018 0.014 0.009
1995 0.106 0.048 0.029 0.021 0.021 0.012 0.004
1996 0.101 0.042 0.027 0.016 0.010 0.003  
1997 0.066 0.019 0.011 0.003      

NM Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.196 0.074 0.062 0.033 0.029 0.018 0.010
1991 0.193 0.071 0.038 0.029 0.024 0.016 0.008
1992 0.174 0.071 0.039 0.029 0.025 0.017 0.010
1993 0.176 0.069 0.060 0.031 0.029 0.018 0.006
1994 0.187 0.083 0.044 0.031 0.021 0.008 0.006
1995 0.170 0.067 0.040 0.029 0.024 0.021 0.005
1996 0.174 0.054 0.026 0.025 0.009 0.002  
1997 0.181 0.047 0.020 0.006      

NY Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.076 0.037 0.024 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.010
1991 0.074 0.034 0.021 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.010
1992 0.073 0.033 0.019 0.020 0.018 0.014 0.010
1993 0.074 0.031 0.022 0.018 0.018 0.015 0.010
1994 0.075 0.029 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.013 0.010
1995 0.071 0.032 0.019 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.006
1996 0.077 0.027 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.003  
1997 0.076 0.025 0.014 0.004      

WI Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval
Year 0 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 6 6 <12 12<18 18<24 25<36
1990 0.108 0.059 0.050 0.035 0.024 0.019 0.014
1991 0.106 0.055 0.047 0.035 0.031 0.017 0.022
1992 0.105 0.052 0.053 0.038 0.033 0.025 0.016
1993 0.112 0.063 0.058 0.042 0.030 0.022 0.011
1994 0.106 0.061 0.052 0.042 0.028 0.016 0.008
1995 0.103 0.060 0.050 0.037 0.025 0.015 0.005
1996 0.087 0.050 0.042 0.030 0.016 0.003  
1997 0.097 0.046 0.029 0.007      

2.1 The Structure of Tracking Tables

These tracking tables each contain seven panels, all organized in the same manner. The rows are defined by the year of entry to the foster care spell, and thus represent entry cohorts. The columns are defined by the elapsed duration of spells experienced by children in these annual entry groups, and thus represent intervals of time spent in care. The cell contents contain exit (or reunification) statistics, such as the count of events that occurred within the given duration interval, the cumulative proportion of entrants that had experienced exits by the end of this duration interval, or the average rate of exits for children during this duration interval. This format encourages comparison of the exit experiences of annual entry cohorts, and thus supports examination of trends in the timing and distribution of exits from foster care.

The lightly shaded cells are partially censored, meaning that while the contents reported in them were observed, some possible events that might eventually be included in the cell were unobservable within the timeframe of the current data. This means that when fully observed data are available, these numbers may become larger (they will never become smaller). The darkly shaded cells are fully censored, meaning that none of these events could be observed with this source data.

Using Table IIB.1 as an example, we will describe the contents of each panel, which are labeled as A through G. This table contains pooled information from all nine states combined.

Panels A and B present the counts of exits and of reunifications that were observed for an annual entry cohort within the given interval of duration. For example, in Panel A we can see that 78,580 foster care spells began during 1992. Of these, 6,685 resulted in some exit from care during months 3, 4 or 5 of the spell. In the same cell position in Panel B, we can see that 4,349 of these exits were achieved by family reunification. These two panels contain the raw data that are used to compute each of the remaining panels-- they are difficult to use or interpret in this form.

Panels C and D rearrange these counts in the form of cumulative proportions, expressing for each entry cohort the proportion of spells that have ended (Panel C), or been reunified (Panel D) by the end of the duration interval. For example, in Panel D, we can see that 46 percent (.461) of the 1990 entry cohort was reunified from foster care within 36 months of entry to care. Four rows below, we can see that 42 percent (.416) of the 1995 entry cohort was reunified by 18 months.

Panels E and F present the average monthly exit and reunification rates during each interval. Thus, for 1994 entrants, 11.5 percent (.115) exited from care before the end of the first month, while for those who remained in care at three months, an average of only 2.9 percent (.029) of the children exited per month for the next three months.

Panel G presents the proportion of all exits that have occurred by the end of each duration interval that were achieved by family reunification. Thus for the 1990 entry cohort, 70.3 percent (.703) of the children who exited during their first year in care did so by reunification. For the 1996 entrants, the percentage of first -- year exits that were by reunification had decreased to 60.9 percent (.609).

Any cell in Panels C through G should be directly comparable to other cells in the same column (same measure from another entry cohort), unless one is censored. This is how we look at trends over time. Similarly, any cell in Panels C through G should be directly comparable to the corresponding cell in the same panel for another state. This is how we compare different foster care populations.

2.2 Substantive Highlights From Nine-State Table

Several predominant trends can be observed across the eight annual cohorts:

2.2.1 Substantive Highlights From Individual State Tables

For all states combined, the time trend observed between 1990 and 1996 was a decrease in exit rates and a sharper decrease in reunification rates. While this general pattern is reflected across the individual state tables, there is substantial variation among the individual states in the timing and magnitude of these changes.

A final sheet is presented after the state tables that summarizes the nine-state and single state results. It is a display of the "average monthly reunification rate" (Panel G), from each of the preceding sheets on a single page.

Figure C is a graphic representing duration-specific reunification rates for each state. These rates were obtained by averaging the separate 1990-1996 entry rates from each Panel E. The pattern of reunification rates decreasing over the duration of spells in foster care is apparent in all nine states. However the magnitudes and the timing of changes in these duration specific rates varies widely. Although all states have their highest reunification rate during the first month of care, the actual Month I rate varies from .181 in New Mexico to .042 in Illinois. In Maryland, New Mexico, and Alabama the rates drop very quickly during the first year, while in Wisconsin and Michigan they drop much less rapidly.

Figure C.
Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care Average Monthly Rates by Time Spent in Care, Nine States

Figure C. Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care
Average Monthly Rates by Time Spent in Care, Nine States

2.3 Cross-Sectional Picture of Exit Change: 1990 and 1994

Table IIB.3 provides a different vantage of this pattern of change by comparing the exit experiences of two entry cohorts (1990 and 1994) in each state.

The first and second panels present descriptive statistics for each of the two entry cohorts. Note that the exit proportions here are computed as a share of all entrants in the cohort (in contrast to Table IIA.I where they were presented as a proportion of all exits). The third panel looks at the proportional shift that occurred in each of these measures between 1990 and 1994. The intent is to identify changes that occurred during the four years that separate these two cohorts, and interpret them as potential indicators of trends. The final panel lists arithmetic changes between 1990 and 1994.(7)

On the third panel (proportional changes, 1990-1994), we see first that the number of entries to foster care spells grew by a total of 23 percent during this four year period. Rapid growth in entries was observed in Illinois (101%), Maryland, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In contrast, Alabama and New York showed a decrease in entries during these four years. A quick comparison between the change in entries, the incidence rate of entry (from panels 1 and 2), and the reunification levels (as observed in the previous section) suggests that there is no evidence of a direct link between these three characteristics of state child welfare systems.

The third panel also contains rows presenting changes in the proportion of entrants that exited within three years ¾ first for all exits and then detailed separately as reunification, adoption, or relative exits. For all states combined, the proportion of entrants that exited care within three years decreased by 5 percent between 1990 and 1994. During the same time, reunification exits decreased by 10 percent, adoption exits by 4 percent and exits to relatives by 13 percent. In eight of the nine states described, we observe decreases in both the proportion of entrants who were reunified and the proportion of exits that were achieved through reunification. The sole exception, Wisconsin, showed a 1 percent increase in the proportion of entrants reunified, and a 2 percent increase in the proportion of exits that were made by reunification.

Table IIB.3
Exit and Reunification from Foster Care: State Summary Table
  State Pooled Total
AL CA IL MD MI MO NM NY WI

1990 Entrants

N entrants to Foster Care 2,004 26,550 7,662 2,454 5,776 3,780 1,068 20,586 4,282 74,162
Incidence Rate of Entry 1.86 2.99 2.43 1.91 2.28 2.71 2.13 4.53 3.19 3.00
Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years 0.88 0.70 0.57 0.73 0.82 0.82 0.90 0.66 0.82 0.71
Prop. by Reunification 0.28 0.52 0.38 0.36 0.47 0.46 0.58 0.41 0.57 0.46
Prop. by Adoption 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.05
Prop. to Relatives 0.25 0.02 0.00 0.16 0.09 0.03 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.06
Prop Reunification | Exit (proportion of exits that are by reunification) 0.32 0.74 0.67 0.50 0.57 0.56 0.64 0.63 0.69 0.65

1994 Entrants

N entrants to Foster Care 1,713 33,084 15,373 3,364 7,067 5,020 1,154 17,909 6,373 91,057
Incidence Rate of Entry 1.59 3.73 4.87 2.62 2.79 3.60 2.30 3.94 4.75 3.69
Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years 0.83 0.67 0.42 0.67 0.84 0.78 0.87 0.73 0.81 0.67
Prop. by Reunification 0.24 0.49 0.24 0.33 0.42 0.43 0.55 0.38 0.57 0.42
Prop. by Adoption 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.13 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.04
Prop. to Relatives 0.29 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.09 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05
Prop Reunification | Exit 0.29 0.73 0.58 0.49 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.53 0.71 0.62

Proportional Change 1990 to 1994 Entrants

N entrants to Foster Care -0.15 0.25 1.01 0.37 0.22 0.33 0.08 -0.13 0.49 0.23
Incidence Rate of Entry -0.15 0.25 1.01 0.37 0.22 0.33 0.08 -0.13 0.49 0.23
Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years -0.05 -0.04 -0.27 -0.07 0.03 -0.05 -0.03 0.10 -0.01 -0.05
Prop. by Reunification -0.15 -0.05 -0.38 -0.09 -0.09 -0.06 -0.05 -0.07 0.01 -0.10
Prop. by Adoption -0.51 -0.17 -0.39 -0.35 0.14 -0.19 0.90 0.58 -0.09 -0.04
Prop. to Relatives 0.17 -0.33 NA 0.10 -0.02 0.31 -0.26 -0.00 -0.12 -0.13
Prop Reunification | Exit -0.10 -0.01 -0.14 -0.02 -0.12 -0.01 -0.02 -0.16 0.02 -0.06

Arithmetic Change 1990 to 1994 Entrants

N entrants to Foster Care -291 6,534 7,711 910 1,291 1,240 86 -2,677 2,091 16,895
Incidence Rate of Entry -0.27 0.74 2.44 0.71 0.51 0.89 0.17 -0.59 1.56 0.68
Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years -0.05 -0.03 -0.15 -0.05 0.03 -0.04 -0.03 0.07 -0.01 -0.03
Prop. by Reunification -0.04 -0.03 -0.14 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 0.01 -0.05
Prop. by Adoption -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 0.02 -0.01 0.03 0.01 -0.00 -0.00
Prop. to Relatives 0.04 -0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.00 0.01 -0.03 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01
Prop Reunification | Exit -0.03 -0.01 -0.10 -0.01 -0.07 -0.01 -0.01 -0.10 0.02 -0.04

[Go To Contents]

3. Multivariate Analysis of Foster Care Exits

Logistic Regression Methods and Tables

Eight of the remaining tables, including the next four, present the results of analyses that apply logistic regression procedures in multivariate models, using data at the level of the individual spell. The dependent variables in these logistic models are binary events -- foster care reunification, reentry to foster care, and completed adoption. The independent variables are a set of child and case attributes that have been considered previously as related to foster care history and exit dynamics.

When interpreting these models, the primary statistics of interest are odds ratios, which indicate the relative effects that are attributed to the different values of each predictive variable, controlling for the influence of other variables in the model. For each variable in the model, one of the possible response attributes (or categories) is arbitrarily selected as the "excluded" category, and is assigned an odds ratio of 1.00. The odds ratios computed for each of the other categories of that variable express the likelihood that a spell with that attribute has the predicted outcome-relative to the likelihood that a spell with the "excluded" attribute has the predicted outcome.

As an example, Table IIC.1 presents the results from two models ¾ one predicting reunification within three years of entry and the other predicting any "family" exit (reunifications plus relative exits) within three years of entry. Each model is computed with nine independent variables.

Table IIC.1
Logistic Regression Model of Exit From Foster Care Within 3 Years of Entry: Reunification Exits and all Family Exits (reunifications plus exits to relatives). For 1990-1994 Entry Cohorts in Nine States.
Predictor Variable Category Reunification within 36 months Family exit within 36 months
Standardized parameter Odds Ratio Standardized parameter Odds Ratio
Age at Entry < 3 months -0.17 0.39 -0.17 0.39
3 -11 months -0.04 0.78 -0.03 0.79
1 - 2 years -0.01 0.94 0.00 0.96
3 - 5 years 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.99
6 - 8 years 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.99
9 -11 years * - - 1.00 - - 1.00
12-14 years -0.04 0.83 -0.05 0.80
15-17 years -0.11 0.57 -0.12 0.51

Gender

Male 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.99
Female * - - 1.00 - - 1.00

Race/ethnic

African American -0.12 0.65 -0.10 0.69
Hispanic 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.03
White, Other * - - 1.00 - - 1.00

Region

Primary urban county -0.12 0.65 -0.12 0.64
Remainder of State * - - 1.00 - - 1.00

Sequence

First Spell in care * - - 1.00 - - 1.00
Reentry Spell -0.06 0.72 -0.07 0.69

Placement Type

Congregate Care 0.03 1.18 0.02 1.12
Other (FC or KC) * - - 1.00 - - 1.00

Stability

On placement in spell * - - 1.00 - - 1.00
2+ placements -0.26 0.40 -0.29 0.35

State:

Alabama -0.08 0.36 -0.01 0.88
California 0.05 1.19 -0.05 0.83
Illinois -0.07 0.68 -0.15 0.45
Maryland -0.03 0.72 0.00 0.97
Michigan * - - 1.00 - - 1.00
Missouri 0.02 1.17 0.00 0.94
New Mexico 0.03 1.37 0.01 1.28
New York -0.01 0.96 -0.02 0.91
Wisconsin 0.05 1.45 0.03 1.27

Year of Entry

1990 0.02 1.12 0.02 1.12
1991 0.01 1.05 0.01 1.06
1992 * - - 1.00 - - 1.00
1993 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.98
1994 -0.02 0.92 -0.02 0.93
  Intercept 0.78   1.28  
exp(intercept) 2.18   3.60  
Predictive Concordance 0.70   0.71  
N spells 404,416   404,416  
N exits (in type) 176,353   197,682  
Proportion exit (in type) 0.44   0.49  

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

Looking at the reunification model, the first independent variable is the age of the child at the time of entry to this spell in foster care. The age category "9-11 years" was selected as the excluded category, and its odds ratio is automatically set at 1.00. The odds ratios for each of the other age categories express the likelihood of reunification of a child entering care at that age, relative to the likelihood of reunification for a child entering care at the age of 9 to 11 years, while controlling for the influence of the other eight variables in the model.

The odds ratio estimated for foster care spells that begin when the child is an infant (<3 months of age) is .39. This should be interpreted as meaning that the relative odds of reunification for a newborn entrant, as compared to a 9-11 year old entrant, are .39 to 1. Conversely, we could take the reciprocal and state that a 9-11 year old entrant is 2.56 times more likely to be reunified within three years than is a newborn. The choice of the excluded category should be unimportant because while numerical values of the odds ratio do depend on which particular category is excluded, the values of the odds ratios relative to each other will be preserved.

The parameters listed in this table are the actual coefficients of the logistic regression model. These are the formal statistics estimated by the model. Because logistic models are not readily interpretable in an intuitively approachable manner, we rely on the odds ratios to express the results of the model. The predictive concordance statistic is a measure of goodness-of-fit for the model. It reports the proportion of outcomes that are correctly predicted by the logistic regression.

3.1 Reunification From Foster Care

Table IIC.I presents a logistic regression model for the likelihood of reunification within three years of entry and also a parallel model for the likelihood of a family exit within three years of entry. The units of analysis are all spells that started during the years 1990-94 in the nine study states. Because the spells were observed through 1997, there are no censored observations in these data.

Summary of Logistic Reunification Analysis.
Age Reunification is least likely for children under one year of age at entry, and also for children over twelve years of age at entry. The largest difference is between the ratio for infants and that for 9-11 year olds, as 9-11 year olds are 2.56 times more likely to reunify than infants.(8)
Gender Gender has little apparent effect on the likelihood of reunification, with males estimated as being 1 percent more likely than females to exit via reunification.
Race The odds of reunification for white and Hispanic children are even. The odds of reunification are 54 percent [(1.00/0.65) -1] more likely for children from either of these groups than for African American children in foster care.
Region Reunification is 54 percent [(1.00/0.65) -1] more likely for children living in those portions of these states that are not in the primary urban counties. (9)

The main urban counties have lower reunification rates.

Sequence Reunification is 39 percent [(1.00/0.72) -1] more likely for children in their first spell in care than it is for children in reentry foster care spells.
Placement Reunification is less likely for children in family foster care arrangements (relative or nonrelative) than for children in institutions or group homes.(10) This result is weakened by the fact that both kinship and nonrelative foster care are included in the foster care category.
Stability Reunification is 150 percent more likely [(1.00/0.40) - 1] from spells where the child stays in one single placement than in spells where the child moves at least one time between placement settings.
Year: Reunification became less likely for each successive annual cohort between 1990 and 1994. The odds for the reunification of 1990 entrants were 22 percent greater [(1.12/0.92)-1) for 1990 entrants than they were for 1994 entrants.
State: Reunification is most likely in Wisconsin and New Mexico and least likely in Alabama. The largest difference in odds is between Wisconsin and Alabama: entrants in Wisconsin are over 4.0 times as likely [1.45 0.36] as entrants in Alabama to exit foster care via reunification.

It is worth restating that these statistics were computed simultaneously in a single multivariate model. Thus, unlike the bivariate results shown earlier, each of these relationships is observed with the influence of all of the other variables in the model being controlled. It is important to note that, for the most part, the basic direction of most of the bivariate results observed in Table IIA. I are largely preserved in the results produced under multivariate controls. Thus, the independent variables we have discussed each appear to contribute independently to the prediction of reunification levels.

3.1.1 Family Exit Analysis

The second model in Table IIC.I shows a parallel analysis with the dependent variable changed from reunification exits to all family exits. Family exits are reunification exits plus exits to relatives. It is significant that each odds ratio is virtually identical to the comparable statistic in the reunification-only analysis, except for major difference in the odds ratios describing differences by state.

The state odds ratios for family exits are much less dispersed than they were for reunifications, and the ordering among states is shifted. Notably, family exits are least likely in Illinois. Alabama, which had the lowest odds of reunification, shows an odds ratio for family exits that is still low, but far more central in the distribution. California had the third highest odds of reunification among the nine states, but has the second lowest odds of any family exit. The largest discrepancy in state odds ratios is between New Mexico and Illinois, with entrants in New Mexico being 2.8 times more likely than entrants in Illinois to experience a family exit. While narrower than the odds of 4:1 observed in the reunification analysis, this represents major difference in the exit activities between these two states.

3.1.2 Reunification During Different Periods in the Duration of a Spell

Table IIC.2, is a modification of the reunification analysis from Table IIC.1, designed to investigate the influence of duration in care and the timing of exits on the relationship between the independent variables and reunification. This design is motivated by the observations made earlier (from the IIB tables) that reunification levels are much higher during the early months of spells in foster care. This model examines whether the factors related to reunification also change as the child remains in care over time.

Overall, the basic structure of the odds ratios is rather similar in all six of these models, suggesting that the influence of these predictor variables on reunification is somewhat stable for all portions of a spell in foster care. However, some differences can be observed.

Table IIC.2
Logistic Regression Model of Reunification as Outcome of Substitute Care Placement Episodes. Selected Time Periods. Pooled Individual Spell Data From 9 States, Entry Cohorts 1990-1994.
Predictor variable Category From Time of Spell Entry: If 6 months elapsed without exit: If 18 months without exit:
Reunification before 6 months Reunification before 18 months Reunification before 36 months Reunification before 18 months Reunification before 36 months Reunification before 36 months
Odds Ratios Odds Ratios Odds Ratios Odds Ratios Odds Ratios Odds Ratios
Age at Entry <3 months 0.48 0.43 0.39 0.46 0.41 0.41
3-11 months 0.80 0.82 0.78 0.88 0.80 0.76
1-2 years 0.92 0.96 0.94 1.02 0.97 0.92
3-5 years 0.95 0.99 0.98 1.03 1.00 0.97
6 - 8 years 0.95 0.99 0.98 1.03 1.00 0.97
9-11 years * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-14 years 0.88 0.90 0.83 1.06 0.96 1.02
15-17 years 0.70 0.69 0.57 0.95 0.70 0.70

Gender

Male 0.92 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.05
Female * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Race/Ethnic

African American 0.69 0.63 0.65 0.62 0.66 0.77
Hispanic 1.12 1.02 1.00 0.93 0.93 0.97
White and  Other * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Urban

Primary urban county 0.70 0.62 0.65 0.58 0.64 0.74
Remainder of State * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Sequence

First Spell * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reentry Spell 0.67 0.72 0.72 0.90 0.87 0.93

Care Type

Congregate Care 1.07 1.18 1.18 1.47 1.50 1.65
All others  (FC, KC)* 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Stability

One placement in spell * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2+ placements 0.24 0.33 0.40 0.43 0.48 0.56

State:

Alabama 0.82 0.45 0.36 0.33 0.26 0.26
California 1.24 1.22 1.19 0.88 0.84 0.66
Illinois 0.88 0.71 0.68 0.51 0.50 0.45
Maryland 1.21 0.80 0.72 0.46 0.46 0.47
Michigan * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Missouri 1.93 1.29 1.17 0.82 0.83 0.85
New Mexico 2.32 1.63 1.37 1.12 0.96 0.73
New York 0.95 0.88 0.96 0.74 0.87 0.97
Wisconsin 1.44 1.14 1.45 1.20 1.26 1.15
Year of Entry 1990 1.14 1.12 1.12 1.06 1.08 1.07
1991 1.10 1.06 1.05 1.01 1.02 1.00
1992 * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1993 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.96 0.95
1994 0.94 0.94 0.92 0.94 0.91 0.87
Intercept -0.34 0.49 0.78 -0.14 0.42 -0.57
exp(intercept) 0.71 1.63 2.18 0.87 1.52 0.57
Predictive Concordance 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.66
N spells 404,416 404,416 404,416 272,725 272,725 187,286
N successes 89,242 147,085 176,353 57,843 87,111 29,268
Proportion successes 0.22 0.36 0.44 0.21 0.32 0.16

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

For example, the racial gap in the odds of reunification narrows markedly as spell duration increases. Between 0 and 6 months, Hispanic children are 62 percent more likely than African American children to be reunified, and 12 percent more likely than white children. Between 6 and 18 months, Hispanics are 50 percent more likely than African Americans, and 7 percent less likely than whites to be reunified. Between 18 months and 3 years, Hispanics are 26 percent more likely than African Americans and 3 percent less likely than whites to be reunified.

Similarly, children in reentry spells and children in spells with multiple placements are characterized by very low relative likelihoods of reunification during the first six months in care. In each case, as the spell duration increases, the odds of reunification for these categories grow closer to (but not equal to) those of children in first spells and children in single-placement spells.

The largest changes appear in the odds ratios for states. New Mexico and Missouri both have highest relative odds of reunification within the first six months of a spell, yet moderate to low relative odds of reunification between 18 months and 3 years. Thus, early reunification appears to be unusually likely in Missouri. Michigan, in contrast has moderately low relative odds of reunification between months 0 and 6, but the second highest odds of reunification between months 6-18 and 18-36.

Overall, the influence of the substantive covariates of reunification appear to be relatively stable for different temporal portions of foster care spells, and when they do change, they tend to become less influential as the time in care increases. Thus early reunifications appear to be more readily predicted by child characteristics and case factors than do late reunifications. Also, we see that the states vary widely in the likelihood of reunification for spells of different lengths. This is similar to the wide variation in the timing of reunification that was observed in Figure C.

3.1.3 Individual State Models of Reunification and Family Exits

Tables IIC.3 and IIC.4 report results obtained by applying the multivariate logistic regression techniques to each state separately. In Tables IIC.3 (reunification models) and IIC.4(family exit models), each column presents the odds ratios estimated by fitting an independent logistic regression model for a separate state. The model from the nine-state analysis is modified in two ways for use with state data. First, the variable for state is removed from the model. Second, a separate category for kinship care is added to the placement type variable because kinship foster care can be distinguished from foster care with unrelated caregivers in six of these states. For the three states where kinship care is not identifiable, the odds ratios for this category are not estimated.

Table IIC.3
Logistic Regression Models of Reunification from Substitute Care. Nine States, entry cohorts 1990-1994. Relative Odds of Reunification Within 36 Months of Entry to Care.

Predictor Variable

Category AL CA IL MD MI MO NM NY WI 9-State

Age at Entry

< 3 months 1.06 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.30 0.35 0.30 0.40 0.40
3-11 months 0.92 0.81 0.77 0.81 0.75 0.61 0.75 0.72 0.72 0.77
1 - 2 years 1.08 0.96 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.97 0.99 0.89 0.93
3 - 5 years 0.99 1.02 0.95 0.92 0.85 0.87 0.93 1.06 0.88 0.97
6 - 8 years 0.97 1.01 0.95 1.00 0.93 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.90 0.98
9-11 years * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-14 years 1.52 0.73 0.78 1.00 0.93 0.88 0.55 0.85 0.87 0.83
15-17 years 1.59 0.36 0.49 0.57 0.66 0.72 0.26 0.67 0.64 0.57

Gender

Male 1.03 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.97 1.03 0.94 1.04 1.05 1.02
Female * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Race/Ethnic

African American 0.68 0.64 0.55 0.72 0.84 0.78 0.53 0.74 0.85 0.61
Hispanic - - 1.00 1.21 1.13 1.00 0.86 0.97 0.98 1.05 1.11
White, Other * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Region

Primary urban county 1.64 0.88 0.25 0.58 0.82 0.83 0.75 0.62 0.58 0.65
Remainder of State * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Sequence

First spell in care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reentry Spell 0.60 0.67 0.84 0.81 0.84 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.69 0.71

Care Type

Kinship Care - - 0.71 0.85 0.38 - - 0.52 0.75 0.77 - - 0.76
Congregate Care 1.38 0.87 1.28 1.52 0.90 0.93 0.94 1.07 1.19 1.05
Foster Care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Stability

One placement * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2+ placements 0.45 0.30 0.49 0.39 0.36 0.50 0.34 0.48 0.36 0.37

Year of Entry

1990 1.15 1.04 1.60 1.14 1.03 0.90 1.00 1.18 0.89 1.12
1991 1.14 1.04 1.23 1.32 1.02 0.89 0.94 1.05 1.00 1.05
1992 * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1993 1.07 0.98 0.91 1.08 0.89 1.00 1.10 0.98 1.05 0.99
1994 0.95 0.93 0.89 1.09 0.96 0.90 0.98 0.88 1.03 0.93
Intercept -0.89 1.18 0.87 0.35 0.71 0.83 1.52 0.71 1.11 0.91
exp(intercept) 0.41 3.25 2.39 1.42 2.03 2.29 4.57 2.03 3.03 2.48
Predictive Concordance 0.66 0.70 0.76 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.69
N Entrants 9,224 143,973 56,354 14,003 31,537 22,629 5,889 94,758 26,049 404,416
N Reunifications 2,369 72,838 15,825 4,849 13,823 10,248 3,300 37,921 15,180 176,353
Prop.Reunifications 0.26 0.51 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.45 0.56 0.40 0.58 0.44

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

Table IIC.4
Logistic Regression Model of Family Exit from Substitute Care. Nine States, Entry Cohorts 1990-1994.Relative odds of Reunification or Exit to Care of Relative Within 36 Months of Entry to Care.
Predictor variable Category AL CA IL MD MI MO NM NY WI 9-State

Age at Entry

< 3 months 0.76 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.42 0.34 0.34 0.30 0.36 0.39
3 -11 months 1.10 0.80 0.76 0.96 0.79 0.64 0.68 0.75 0.72 0.78
1 - 2 years 1.19 0.95 0.87 1.02 0.89 0.86 0.95 1.05 0.92 0.95
3 - 5 years 1.14 1.01 0.93 1.01 0.90 0.91 0.83 1.11 0.93 0.99
6 - 8 years 1.03 1.00 0.94 1.01 0.95 1.08 0.90 1.03 0.92 0.99
9 -11 years * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-14 years 1.11 0.72 0.77 0.97 0.91 0.86 0.49 0.76 0.81 0.79
15-17 years 0.99 0.36 0.49 0.46 0.54 0.72 0.23 0.58 0.52 0.51

Gender

Male 0.94 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.92 1.04 0.93 1.01 1.02 1.00
Female * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Race/Ethnic

African American 1.10 0.61 0.56 0.81 1.03 0.80 0.50 0.83 0.84 0.66
Hispanic 0.98 0.99 1.20 1.07 1.24 0.79 0.82 1.07 1.01 1.06
White, Other * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Region

Primary urban county 1.92 0.91 0.26 0.81 0.75 1.04 0.71 0.55 0.40 0.65
Remainder of State * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Sequence

First spell in care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reentry Spell 0.54 0.65 0.83 0.72 0.77 0.65 0.60 0.60 0.64 0.69

Care Type

Kinship Care - - 0.73 0.90 0.41 - - 0.85 1.04 0.74 - - 0.66
Congregate Care 1.31 0.84 1.25 1.78 1.07 0.89 0.98 0.95 1.05 1.04
Foster Care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Stability

One placement * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2+ placements 0.35 0.29 0.48 0.33 0.25 0.49 0.26 0.39 0.30 0.32

Year of Entry

1990 0.99 1.06 1.58 1.09 0.97 0.88 1.28 1.20 0.87 1.14
1991 1.17 1.05 1.20 1.30 1.00 0.88 1.04 1.07 0.98 1.06
1992 * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1993 1.12 0.98 0.95 1.00 0.83 1.02 1.16 0.99 1.02 0.98
1994 0.99 0.92 0.94 1.09 0.92 0.89 1.11 0.90 1.01 0.92
Intercept 0.49 1.30 0.87 0.92 1.31 0.89 2.06 1.25 1.71 1.26
exp(intercept) 1.63 3.67 2.39 2.51 3.71 2.44 7.85 3.49 5.53 3.53
Predictive Concordance 0.67 0.70 0.75 0.69 0.70 0.63 0.73 0.70 0.69 0.70
N Entrants 9,224 143,973 56,354 14,003 31,537 22,629 5,889 94,758 26,049 404,416
N Family Exits 4,942 75,482 16,151 7,108 16,839 11,118 3,724 45,608 16,710 197,682
Prop. Family Exits 0.54 0.52 0.29 0.51 0.53 0.49 0.63 0.48 0.64 0.49

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

The findings reported from each of the separate state models resemble one another and the pooled nine-state result. This suggests that there is substantial similarity in the nature of the reunification process across states. Certain results are remarkably stable. These include the findings that gender has little influence on reunification and that reentry spells are much less likely to result in reunification than are first spells.

For other findings, the direction of the results is fairly consistent, but the magnitude of the effects varies widely among states. For example, white children are more likely to be reunified from substitute care than are African American children in all states. In Illinois and New Mexico, the likelihood of reunification is almost twice as high for whites as for African Americans (ratio of 100:55), while race has less predictive importance in Michigan and Wisconsin as shown by odds ratios that are near 100:85. The pattern for Hispanics varies, but they usually are equally likely or somewhat more likely to be reunified than whites.

The placement type variable is more useful with state-level data because kinship care can be separately identified for six of the nine states. In each of these states, reunification within three years is much less likely from kinship foster care than from nonrelative foster care. In most states, the odds of reunification from congregate care placements and nonrelative foster care placements are rather similar, although in Alabama and Maryland the odds of reunification from congregate placements are much higher.

Alabama appears to be the state that is most systematically different in the relationships between these predictive variables and reunification. The patterns of influence by age and by regional influence on reunification observed for Alabama are directly reversed from what is seen in the other eight states.

There is also variability by state in the apparent trends in the likelihood of reunification over time, as seen through the experiences of cohorts defined by year of entry to care. These trends differ from those presented in earlier sections because the multivariate models introduce factors that are related to the changing composition of each state's caseload. For example, if a state foster care caseload has an increasing share of infant cases, we would expect reunification rates to decrease, even if all other practice factors remained stable. In this case, the likelihood of reunification for any given individual would not be changing, but the statewide reunification rates would drop solely because the caseload contains a greater proportion of children that have a lower likelihood of reunification. So, these measures of cohort effects can be interpreted as changes in the likelihood of reunification across years, with some control for shifts in composition based on age, race, gender, region, etc.

The nine-state total shows the odds of reunification decreasing steadily between the 1990 and 1994 cohorts, a total 17 percent reduction [I - (0.93/1.12)] across the five years. For individual states, a clear and direct downward trend for reunification is apparent only for California, Illinois, and New York. For Wisconsin, the odds of reunification increase across the five annual cohorts, and the trends over times in the other states are inconsistent or absent.

The fact that trends observed primarily in California, Illinois and New York have strong influence on the nine-state results bears some thought. Together, these three states contain 73 percent of the foster care spells in the universe being examined, yet they represent only three of the nine separate child welfare systems. To the extent that we are trying to understand national trends and patterns, consideration of pooled data (which gives weight to the larger caseloads) seems useful. If we are trying to understand the behavior of child welfare systems, then examination of individual state models might be more appropriate.

[Go To Contents]

4. Reentry from Foster Care

Reentry levels are important markers of the "success" of exits from foster care, and as such, provide a useful outcome measure to consider in evaluating reunification. While we tend to assume that family reunification is a positive outcome, reentry statistics help assess the degree to which reunification practice is successful. That is, whether the children who were returned home were able to remain at home following their discharge from care. When high reunification levels are accompanied by high reentry levels, we are led to assume that many of the reunifications were arranged unwisely or prematurely. (11)

Most of the following reentry analysis looks at the universe of foster care spells that started between 1990-93, that ended within 36 months, and where the child was aged 14 or younger at the time of exit. These restrictions are used to define a risk group for which reentry is equally possible for all cases. In most models, we evaluate reentries that occur within the first year after exit.

4.1 Reentry Counts and Rates by Type of Exit From Care

Table IID.1 presents counts of children who reentered foster care within one year of an earlier exit, with each cell classified by the type of exit from the prior spell and by a series of child and case characteristics. The cells to the right side of the table present these reentries as a proportion of all relevant exits. For the nine states pooled, 17.3 percent of children reunified from foster care by the age of 14 years reentered care within one year of exit. Reentry rates for relative exits and other exits were slightly higher (18.3%), and reentry from runaway exits was much higher. Adoption and age-out exits are excluded from the reentry analysis because they are expected to produce no identifiable reentries.

Table IID.1
Foster Care Exits and Reentries Within One Year of Exit. All Spells With an Exit During the First 36 Months. 1990-1993 Entrants, Nine States.
  Counts Proportion who Reenter Care
Exit Type Exit Type
Reunified with Family Exit to other Relative Run away from care Other exit Total Tracked exits Reunif Relative Run Other Total

All Exits

138,458 16,820 15,858 28,722 199,858          

Ages 15-17 at Exit

22,288 2,116 9,761 6,873 41,038          
Reenter in 12 mos. 3,182 423 4,889 1,905 10,399 0.143 0.200 0.501 0.277 0.253

Ages 0-14 at Exit

115,000 14,539 5,377 20,594 155,510          
Reenter in 12 mos. 19,945 2,654 3,485 4,953 31,037 0.173 0.183 0.648 0.240 0.200
Reenter in 36 mos 30,241 3,930 3,751 6,265 44,187 0.263 0.270 0.698 0.304 0.284
Reenter before 1998 34,740 4,386 3,773 6,722 49,621 0.302 0.302 0.702 0.326 0.319

Ages 0-14, Reentries in 12 months

State

AL 244 340 35 299 918 0.163 0.192 0.547 0.186 0.186
CA 8,068 221 918 651 9,858 0.158 0.117 0.592 0.120 0.164
IL 2,250 50 703 292 3,295 0.217 0.365 0.864 0.127 0.242
MD 580 339 37 118 1,074 0.185 0.225 0.487 0.176 0.199
MI 1,426 599 143 140 2,308 0.154 0.285 0.581 0.075 0.171
MO 1,259 75 184 466 1,984 0.193 0.126 0.748 0.184 0.201
NM 484 22 55 154 715 0.204 0.079 0.618 0.348 0.224
NY 3,964 840 1,261 2,433 8,498 0.166 0.155 0.616 0.482 0.233
WI 1,670 168 149 400 2,387 0.246 0.200 0.608 0.583 0.279

Year of Spell Entry

1990 4,608 652 632 1,193 7,085 0.159 0.179 0.610 0.239 0.184
1991 4,818 690 854 1,247 7,609 0.168 0.185 0.653 0.239 0.196
1992 5,094 637 892 1,272 7,895 0.182 0.179 0.641 0.243 0.207
1993 5,425 675 1,107 1,241 8,448 0.184 0.187 0.674 0.240 0.211

Duration of previous spell in care

< 1 month 4,737 824 805 1,066 7,432 0.194 0.225 0.588 0.317 0.227
1 - 2 months 4,140 649 770 1,113 6,672 0.198 0.208 0.620 0.308 0.231
3 - 5 months 2,664 350 550 742 4,306 0.175 0.182 0.660 0.274 0.208
6 -11 months 3,308 347 562 801 5,018 0.162 0.170 0.676 0.258 0.190
12-17 months 2,441 219 346 461 3,467 0.159 0.160 0.724 0.176 0.175
18-24 months 1,460 123 187 336 2,106 0.152 0.115 0.690 0.139 0.158
25-36 months 1,195 142 265 434 2,036 0.130 0.106 0.753 0.156 0.149

Type of Care

Congregate Care 2,867 411 1,820 1,161 6,259 0.242 0.267 0.629 0.333 0.317
Nonrel. Foster Care 12,628 1,971 1,198 2,967 18,764 0.183 0.198 0.675 0.261 0.204
Kinship Care 3,940 232 283 654 5,109 0.127 0.083 0.699 0.129 0.130
Mixed care types 510 40 184 171 905 0.153 0.159 0.605 0.259 0.199

Age at Spell Entry

Under 3 months 1,946 266 0 529 2,741 0.175 0.130 - - 0.169 0.169
3 mos. - 1 year 1,856 219 0 416 2,491 0.181 0.145 - - 0.209 0.181
1 - 2 years 3,542 447 0 612 4,601 0.170 0.167 - - 0.193 0.173
3 - 5 years 3,496 474 0 604 4,574 0.155 0.174 - - 0.192 0.161
6 - 8 years 2,461 348 7 575 3,391 0.140 0.172 0.583 0.221 0.153
9 -11 years 2,773 367 508 744 4,392 0.174 0.205 0.721 0.291 0.209
12-14 years 3,871 533 2,970 1,473 8,847 0.230 0.301 0.637 0.368 0.325

Age at Exit

0 years 2,254 338 0 555 3,147 0.202 0.162 - - 0.234 0.202
1 - 2 years 4,018 486 0 810 5,314 0.172 0.149 - - 0.185 0.171
3 - 5 years 3,875 517 0 639 5,031 0.155 0.169 - - 0.170 0.158
6 - 8 years 2,590 353 0 566 3,509 0.140 0.167 - - 0.209 0.150
9 -11 years 2,604 349 177 670 3,800 0.161 0.189 0.681 0.267 0.183
12-14 years 4,604 611 3,308 1,713 10,236 0.221 0.281 0.646 0.350 0.310

Spell Sequence

First spell in care 17,359 2,369 2,352 4,055 26,135 0.165 0.178 0.627 0.223 0.186
Reentry spell 2,586 285 1,133 898 4,902 0.256 0.237 0.698 0.375 0.320
Note: Exits for Completed Adoption and Reaching Age of Majority (aging out of foster care) are excluded from this table. Reentries from adoptions cannot be tracked due to privacy restrictions. Reentries should never occur for children who age out of care.

By examining the column containing reentry proportions from reunification exits, we observe systematic differences in the relationship between reentry and the independent variables. For all states combined, there is an observed tendency for more reentry by children whose prior spell was in the following categories:

Table IID.2 presents reentry levels from reunification spells for each state separately. Reentry rates vary from a low range of 15-16 percent in Alabama, California, Michigan and New York, to levels over 20 percent in New Mexico, Illinois and Wisconsin.

Table IID.2
Reentry of Children Reunified from Foster Care, by State.

Universe: Spells in foster care that begin in 1990-1993, that end in reunification within three years of spell start, and where child is age of 0 through 14 years at time of exit.
  AL CA IL MD MI MO NM NY WI Total

Number Reunified within Three Years of Entry

1,493 51,172 10,367 3,136 9,255 6,514 2,377 23,900 6,786 115,000
Reentry within One Year 244 8,068 2,250 580 1,426 1,259 484 3,964 1,670 19,945
Reentry in Years 2-3 89 4,309 1,170 229 795 668 145 2,161 730 10,296

Proportion Reentering Care:

within one year 0.163 0.158 0.217 0.185 0.154 0.193 0.204 0.166 0.246 0.173
during Years 2-3 * 0.060 0.084 0.113 0.073 0.086 0.103 0.061 0.090 0.108 0.090

Proportion Reentering Care Within One Year of Reunification

Year Spell Start

1990 0.141 0.141 0.211 0.167 0.147 0.188 0.174 0.157 0.232 0.159
1991 0.156 0.149 0.221 0.188 0.151 0.191 0.192 0.168 0.219 0.168
1992 0.170 0.171 0.228 0.183 0.143 0.192 0.218 0.169 0.271 0.182
1993 0.196 0.169 0.208 0.200 0.176 0.201 0.225 0.173 0.256 0.184

Duration of Prior Spell

< 1 month 0.223 0.152 0.270 0.207 0.168 0.191 0.226 0.216 0.334 0.194
1-2 months 0.146 0.174 0.239 0.203 0.161 0.195 0.164 0.247 0.252 0.198
3-5 months 0.114 0.166 0.209 0.186 0.154 0.207 0.165 0.160 0.232 0.175
6-11 months 0.182 0.151 0.207 0.149 0.148 0.191 0.221 0.141 0.231 0.162
12-17 months 0.066 0.153 0.211 0.170 0.172 0.218 0.227 0.126 0.176 0.159
18-23 months 0.039 0.160 0.192 0.163 0.134 0.150 0.252 0.115 0.219 0.152
24-36 months 0.067 0.137 0.161 0.139 0.123 0.170 0.169 0.102 0.158 0.130

Primary Type of Care

Congregate 0.205 0.222 0.334 0.238 0.178 0.249 0.222 0.243 0.292 0.242
Unrelated Foster Care 0.143 0.177 0.221 0.181 0.152 0.185 0.218 0.175 0.244 0.183
Kinship Care - - 0.126 0.188 0.122 - - 0.120 0.140 0.079 - - 0.127
Mixed Care Types 0.200 0.149 0.202 0.104 - - 0.273 0.273 0.114 0.158 0.153

Age at Exit

0 years 0.149 0.199 0.249 0.193 0.187 0.204 0.183 0.194 0.260 0.202
1-2 years 0.182 0.163 0.211 0.182 0.173 0.199 0.230 0.147 0.236 0.172
3-5 years 0.153 0.150 0.200 0.160 0.138 0.171 0.215 0.131 0.191 0.155
6-8 years 0.130 0.133 0.180 0.135 0.121 0.135 0.215 0.124 0.186 0.140
9-11 years 0.142 0.143 0.192 0.187 0.144 0.187 0.175 0.161 0.229 0.161
12-14 years 0.191 0.174 0.295 0.248 0.176 0.254 0.181 0.234 0.317 0.221

Race/Ethnicity

African American 0.187 0.188 0.230 0.178 0.162 0.216 0.211 0.154 0.185 0.184
Hispanic 0.000 0.133 0.159 0.125 0.143 0.167 0.189 0.142 0.216 0.139
Other 0.182 0.120 0.326 0.194 0.136 0.221 0.244 0.168 0.277 0.172
White 0.148 0.161 0.205 0.198 0.149 0.180 0.207 0.200 0.267 0.181

Spell Sequence

First Spell 0.158 0.151 0.209 0.178 0.148 0.185 0.190 0.161 0.221 0.165
Reentry Spell 0.212 0.240 0.308 0.269 0.220 0.274 0.295 0.209 0.416 0.256

Placement Stability

One Placement 0.193 0.153 0.220 0.177 0.144 0.181 0.186 0.177 0.242 0.171
Two placements 0.106 0.160 0.217 0.198 0.176 0.184 0.212 0.147 0.256 0.172
3-4 Placements 0.116 0.185 0.199 0.201 0.167 0.210 0.239 0.154 0.274 0.186
5 or more placements 0.069 0.214 0.253 0.256 0.169 0.259 0.291 0.120 0.275 0.211

*Note: Reentry proportions for years 2 and 3 may be partially censored for spells that started in 1992 or 1993.

Again, the individual state patterns tend to resemble the pattern for all states combined with a number of deviations. One interesting pattern is that the proportion of reentries appears to be increasing over the time of observation in all states (except for a final-year drop-off in Illinois and Wisconsin). There is also a strong tendency for reentries to occur more frequently after prior spells in care that were of shorter duration. The relation to duration is least apparent in Michigan, Missouri and California. In addition, Michigan, Missouri and New Mexico each show a pattern of higher reentries from one of the middle-length spell groups (12-24 months).

However, there does not appear to be a direct relationship, at the aggregate level, between those states with high reunification rates and those states with high reentry rates. Broad conclusions of this type would be attractive, but are not supported by the data. On the one hand, Wisconsin and New Mexico have high levels of each type, and Alabama has low levels of both types. These observations would support the idea that reentry and reunification levels are systemically related. But in contrast, California has higher reunification and lower reentry, while Illinois has lower reunification and higher reentry.

4.2 Multivariate Models for Reentry After Reunification

Tables IIE.1 and IIE.2 present the results of logistic regression models predicting the likelihood of reentry within 12 months of a reunification from foster care. As with the logistic regression models used in the analysis of reunification, these results are computed with multivariate controls. Even so, they tend to reproduce the findings observed from the bivariate proportions described in the previous section.

Table IIE.1
Logistic Regression Model of Reentry to Foster Care within One Year of a Prior Exit by Reunification.

Predictor Variable

Category Standardized parameter Odds Ratio

Age at Entry

< 3 months 0.021 1.15
3 -11 months 0.015 1.11
1 - 2 years 0.000 1.00
3 - 5 years -0.024 0.89
6 - 8 years -0.043 0.79
9 -11 years * - - 1.00
12-14 years 0.035 1.18
15-17 years -0.114 0.53

Gender

Male 0.003 1.01
Female * - - 1.00

Race/Ethnic

African American 0.039 1.17
Hispanic -0.032 0.86
White, Other * - - 1.00

Region

Primary Urban County -0.053 0.82
Remainder of State * - - 1.00

Sequence

First Spell in Care * - - 1.00
Reentry Spell 0.087 1.68

Care Type

Congregate Care 0.045 1.24
Foster Care, Kin Care * - - 1.00

Stability

One Placement in Spell * - - 1.00
2+ placements 0.050 1.21

Duration

Log(months in spell) -0.111 0.84

State

Alabama -0.014 0.81
California 0.031 1.12
Illinois 0.074 1.61
Maryland 0.014 1.17
Michigan * - - 1.00
Missouri 0.020 1.17
New Mexico 0.022 1.34
New York 0.011 1.05
Wisconsin 0.080 1.69

Year of Entry

1990 -0.022 0.91
1991 -0.017 0.93
1992 * - - 1.00
1993 0.002 1.01
Intercept -1.516  
exp(intercept) 0.220  
Concordance 0.61  
N 138,503  
N reentries 23,131  
Proportion Reentry 0.17  

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

The pooled nine-state results in the model in Tables IIE.1 suggests the following:

The individual state models in Table IIE.2 again tend to resemble the pooled model. Some of the differences observed are:

Table IIE.2
Logistic Regression Model of Reentry to Substitute Care within 12 months of Reunification Exit. All Child Entrants Between 1990-93 That Exited by Reunification Within 3 years. By State.
  AL CA IL MD MI MO NM NY WI 9-State

Age at Entry

< 3 months 0.79 1.30 1.08 0.91 1.19 1.08 0.61 0.98 0.76 1.12
3 -11 months 0.74 1.25 1.02 1.07 1.13 1.09 1.34 0.93 1.02 1.10
1 - 2 years 1.07 1.10 1.00 0.84 1.04 1.03 1.27 0.84 0.83 1.00
3 - 5 years 1.00 1.00 0.94 0.77 0.86 0.78 1.36 0.76 0.72 0.89
6 - 8 years 0.62 0.87 0.85 0.70 0.80 0.72 0.98 0.70 0.69 0.80
9 -11 years * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-14 years 0.94 1.10 1.52 1.21 0.97 1.28 0.98 1.10 1.34 1.18
15-17 years 0.36 0.56 0.90 0.65 0.47 0.60 0.54 0.34 0.60 0.56

Gender

Male 0.96 1.00 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.00 1.06 0.99 1.02 1.02
Female * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Race/Ethnic

                   
African American 1.37 1.30 1.23 0.97 1.29 1.30 0.85 1.04 1.03 1.17
Hispanic - - 0.88 0.71 0.62 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.85
White, Other * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Region

Primary Urban County 0.86 0.88 0.95 0.97 0.74 0.98 1.45 0.76 0.59 0.82
Remainder of State 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Sequence *

First Spell in Care 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reentry Spell 1.19 1.73 1.58 1.56 1.63 1.59 1.69 1.40 1.76 1.67

Care Type

                   
Kinship Care - - 0.71 0.86 0.64 - - 0.56 0.66 0.59 - - 0.77
Congregate Care 1.29 1.39 1.44 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.05 1.07 0.85 1.16
Foster Care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Stability

One Placement in Spell * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2+ placements 0.76 1.07 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.24 1.38 1.23 1.29 1.20

Duration

Log(months in spell) 0.74 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.90 0.94 0.92 0.71 0.72 0.85

Year of Entry

                   
1990 0.86 0.83 0.96 0.87 1.08 1.12 0.69 1.00 0.93 0.91
1991 0.88 0.87 1.00 0.97 1.11 1.07 0.78 1.02 0.81 0.93
1992 * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1993 1.14 0.99 0.95 1.02 1.29 1.09 0.93 1.01 0.95 1.01

Intercept

-1.32 -1.60 -1.20 -1.24 -1.84 -1.68 -1.48 -0.90 -0.58 -1.31
  0.27 0.20 0.30 0.29 0.16 0.19 0.23 0.41 0.56 0.27

Concordance

0.66 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.60 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.60

N

1,962 56,518 12,129 3,745 10,838 8,080 2,666 31,047 11,518 138,503

N reentries

281 8,733 2,706 675 1,590 1,495 520 4,628 2,503 23,131

Prop. reenter in 12 mos.

0.14 0.15 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.19 0.20 0.15 0.22 0.17

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

Age: In Alabama, New York, and Wisconsin, the youngest children (those who entered their prior spell under one year of age) do not have higher reentry rates. In New Mexico, the highest reentry rates are for children who entered their first spell between 3-5 years of age-while in most states this was one of the lower reentry age groups. Also, Alabama, Michigan, and New Mexico do not show an increase in reentry for children ages 12-14.

Race and Ethnicity: Reentry levels are lower for Hispanics in all states. Reentry levels are much higher for African Americans than whites in Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri. In Maryland, New York, and Wisconsin, the reentry levels for African Americans and whites are very similar. In New Mexico, African American reentry rates are lower than those for Hispanics or whites.

Region: Reentry levels are lower in the primary urban county for all states except New Mexico, where they are substantially higher in Bernalillo County. Reentry rates are especially low in the primary urban places in Michigan (Wayne County.), New York (New York City) and Wisconsin (Milwaukee County.).

Duration: The inverse relation between spell duration and the likelihood of reentry is strongest in Alabama, New York, and Wisconsin. Note that these include one low-reunification state (Alabama), one medium-reunification state (New York), and one high-reunification state (Wisconsin).

Time Trends: As was observed in the reunification models, while the pooled nine-state data shows a clear trend across entry cohorts (for reentry it is increasing), the individual state trends are less clear or mixed. Alabama, California, and Maryland are the only states where the odds ratios present a clear picture of increasing likelihood of reentry.

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5. Adoption from Foster Care

Logistic regression models of the likelihood of adoption from foster care are presented in Tables IIF.I (pooled data) and IIF.2 (individual states). The universe is composed of all spells that began in 1990-93 in the nine study states. Adoptive exits are observed for up to four years following entry.

Table IIF.1
Logistic Regression Model of Adoption From Foster Care Within 4 Years of Entry. Nine states, 1990-1993 Admissions.

Predictor Variable

Category Standardized parameter Odds Ratio

Age at Entry

0 - 2 months 0.51 15.54
3 - 11 months 0.26 5.69
1 - 2 years 0.23 3.36
3 - 5 years 0.16 2.28
6 - 8 years 0.08 1.61
9 - 11 years * - - 1.00
12 - 14 years -0.23 0.32
15 - 17 years -0.41 0.11

Gender

Male -0.01 0.97
Female * - - 1.00

Race/Ethnic

African American -0.18 0.51
Hispanic -0.07 0.72
White, Other * - - 1.00

Region

Primary Urban County -0.26 0.38
Remainder of State - - 1.00

Sequence

First Spell in Care * - - 1.00
Reentry Spell 0.07 1.51

Care Type

Congregate Care -0.15 0.47
Foster Care, Kin Care * - - 1.00

Spell Duration

Log(months in spell) 0.44 1.74

State

Alabama -0.16 0.15
California -0.46 0.18
Illinois -0.26 0.24
Maryland -0.05 0.60
Michigan * - - 1.00
Missouri -0.09 0.49
New Mexico -0.06 0.40
New York -0.38 0.20
Wisconsin -0.17 0.28

Year of Entry

1990 -0.02 0.91
1991 -0.02 0.93
1992 * - - 1.00
1993 0.02 1.10
  Intercept -3.30  
exp(intercept) 0.04  
Concordance 0.86  
N spells observed 313,359  
N adoptions in 4 years 22,141  
Percent adopted in 4 years 7.1%  

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the excluded category for their variable. The odds ratios of 1.00 associated with these predictors are predetermined. The odds ratios for other categories of the variable express the effect in relation to that of the excluded category.

Table IIF.2
Logistic Regression Model of Adoption Within Four Years of Foster Care Entry.Nine States, All Foster Care Admissions From 1990-1993.
  State 9 states (no kin term) 9 states (with kin term)
AL CA IL MD MI MO NM NY WI
ratios of relative odds of adoption    

Age at Entry

0 - 2 months 117.71 49.32 16.27 49.77 2.98 21.50 7.01 11.57 13.03 12.31 12.28
3 - 11 months 21.91 18.17 4.95 14.79 1.79 7.72 3.23 4.74 4.88 5.20 5.31
1 - 2 years 16.04 10.83 2.56 8.35 1.52 3.36 2.72 2.61 3.60 3.17 3.32
3 - 5 years 7.43 5.38 1.94 5.87 1.47 2.48 1.59 1.82 2.35 2.18 2.29
6 - 8 years 3.47 2.49 1.57 2.74 1.40 1.43 1.19 1.43 1.90 1.59 1.65
9 - 11 years * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12 - 14 years - - 0.46 0.23 0.32 0.35 0.45 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.33 0.32
15 - 17 years - - 0.26 0.06 0.11 0.07 0.15 0.16 0.08 0.20 0.11 0.11

Gender

                     
Male 1.15 0.93 0.95 0.89 0.97 1.03 0.84 0.99 1.05 0.98 0.97
Female * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Race/Ethnic

African American 0.34 0.33 0.51 0.54 0.76 0.86 0.56 0.58 0.43 0.54 0.58
Hispanic - - 0.73 0.72 0.48 0.66 2.00 0.79 0.56 0.74 0.53 0.62
White, Other * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Region
Primary Urban County 0.83 0.25 0.61 0.30 0.49 0.65 0.93 0.60 0.35 0.38 0.44
Remainder of State * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Spell Sequence

First Spell in Care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reentry Spell 1.52 1.49 1.14 1.57 1.16 1.19 1.70 1.81 1.41 1.47 1.35

Care Type

Kinship Care - - 0.31 0.37 0.38 - - 0.51 0.93 0.27 - - - - 0.26
Congregate Care 0.22 0.99 0.06 0.35 0.07 0.23 0.71 0.55 0.11 0.47 0.36
Foster Care * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Spell Duration

Log(months) 2.56 1.79 1.24 2.03 1.94 1.95 3.32 1.82 2.08 1.60 1.69

Year Admitted

1990 1.47 1.02 1.04 0.81 0.86 1.23 1.10 0.67 0.87 0.90 0.89
1991 0.96 1.01 0.87 0.83 0.93 1.09 0.88 0.85 0.86 0.95 0.94
1992 * 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1993 1.13 1.08 0.95 1.02 1.23 1.02 1.26 1.15 1.24 1.09 1.10

Intercept

-8.09 -5.64 -3.25 -4.90 -3.09 -4.80 -6.04 -4.80 -5.05 -4.24 -4.26

exp(intercept)

0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Concordance

0.95 0.89 0.84 0.89 0.80 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.89 0.84 0.86

N spells observed

7,511 110,889 40,981 10,639 24,470 17,609 4,735 76,849 19,676 313,359 313,359

N adoptions in 4 years

289 7,080 2,586 1,090 4,170 1,613 333 4,186 794 22,141 22,141

Percent adopted in 4 years

3.8% 6.4% 6.3% 10.2% 17.0% 9.2% 7.0% 5.4% 4.0% 7.1% 7.1%

Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category.

The pooled analysis highlights the dramatic relationship between age at spell entry and the likelihood of exit by adoption. Children who entered foster care as newborns (0-2 months) were 49 times more likely [15.54/0.32] to have an adoptive exit from care than were children who entered care at the ages of 12-14 years, and over 15 times more likely [ 15.54/1.00] to have an adoptive exit than children who entered care between the ages of 9-11. Newborns were even 2.73 times more likely [ 15.54/5.69] to be adopted from care than were children who entered care between the ages of 3 months and 1 year.

Regarding the other variables:

Adoption models for each state are shown separately in Table IIF.2. Here, we can see that Michigan differed from the other eight states in several ways. Most importantly, the adoption activity in Michigan was less limited to the population of children who entered foster care as newborns. The reason that the odds ratio for newborns in Michigan (2.98) is so much smaller than those for the other states (which range from 7 to 118) is not because Michigan has fewer infant adoptions. It is because Michigan has many more adoptions of children who entered at 9-11 years (the "excluded" category which forms the basis of the odds ratios). The odds ratio is the relative likelihood of adoption for children from the two categories. Michigan is also one of three states (Illinois and Missouri are the others) that move almost as high a share of children in their first spells to adoption as reentry spells. It is also one of two states (Missouri is the other) where adoption of African American children from foster care occurs with at least a 75 percent likelihood as the adoption of white children. Thus, the markedly higher adoption rates in Michigan seem to result from an expansion of the domain of potentially adoptable foster children in comparison to the other states observed.(12)

The likelihood of adoptive outcomes from kinship spells in care is very low in the six states where kinship care can be tracked.

Several individual states show unusual patterns in the likelihood of adoption from foster care. California had extremely low adoption levels in Los Angeles, relative to other parts of the state; and unusually high levels of adoption from congregate care. In New York, an unusually high proportion of foster care adoptions is from reentry spells, and the likelihood of adoption almost doubled between 1990 and 1993.

The time trend for all states pooled is an increase in the likelihood of adoption for successive cohorts. At least five of the individual states reflect this general trend, and only Missouri showed a substantial decrease in adoptions during this period.

Like reunification, adoptions are generally regarded as positive exits from foster care, in that they define new life situations that are intended to be permanent, nonrestrictive, and nurturing. Adoptions are a preferred resolution when family-centered options seem unfeasible. Because adoption and reunification are mutually exclusive events, in that they cannot both be discharge destinations for the same spell in care, we might expect that they would be negatively related to one another at the aggregate level. But again the statewide findings do not support such a conclusion.

However, there is a clear relation between reunification and adoption in child welfare practice. This was made explicit in the Adoption and Safe Families Act, which included language that directed states to initiate pre-adoptive activity for most foster care cases where reunification had not been accomplished within 15 months of entry. This law does not rule out future reunification activity, in fact concurrent planning activity is encouraged. It does, however, explicitly target an increase in adoptions from foster care and a reduction in the time that elapses before adoption.

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6. Summary of Administrative Data Analysis

The comparison of the foster care reunification patterns from nine states extends our perspective about the processes involved in child discharges from the custody of state child welfare agencies.

This work is based on analysis of the population of children who have been admitted to foster care, and examines information from the administrative records of their foster care history. As such, it does not examine the underlying social contexts of the communities and families from which the children have been removed, nor does it consider the substance of reunification work -- such as the nature and quantity of services provided to the child and/or the family of origin. Instead, it provides comparable information about the outcomes of these forces, that is, the child's history in the foster care system.

There are similarities in reunification patterns across all states. This is seen most clearly in the timing of discharges from care -- exits by family reunification tend to occur earlier in foster care episodes than do other types of exits. The likelihood of reunification also tends to be similarly related to the same child and case attributes across most states.

But there is also extensive variability in reunification patterns across states. This is seen most clearly in the overall prevalence of reunification -- as the proportion of foster care exits that are achieved via family reunification varies widely across the nine states.

These apparently contradictory statements are drawn from empirical observation of reunification patterns during the mid-1990s. It is important to note that foster care reunification is not an isolated process, but rather one that is embedded in many other dynamics of state child welfare systems. Reunification levels are influenced greatly by the composition of the foster care population, and depend in part on the decisions that determine placement in foster care. For example, an emphasis on placement prevention strategies might be expected to reduce reunification levels, because a segment of "likely" cases for reunification would be diverted from placement in foster care.

The prevailing feature of the reunification process is that the likelihood of exit by reunification is highest at the beginning of a child's stay in foster care, and gradually decreases as time in care elapses. For all foster care episodes observed in these data, approximately 8 percent ended in reunification during the first month of care, about 30 percent during the first year in care, and about 40 percent during the first three years in care. This basic pattern exists for each state, as shown in the graphic of the likelihood of reunification over time in Figure C.

As a result, reunification tends to occur earlier (or for episodes of shorter duration) than other types of foster care exit. This pattern is consistent with two widely held tenets of child welfare practice: that foster care is intended to serve as a temporary intervention in a time of family crisis, and that family reunification is the preferred outcome of placement in alternative care arrangements. For a certain segment of the foster care population, relatively rapid reunification is achieved. During the time period observed, the following categories describe basic foster care (based on Table II.B.1, Panels C and D, numbers rounded):

Although the temporal pattern of reunification exits is similar across states, there is extensive variability in the actual levels. The percent of exits by reunification varied between 29 percent in Alabama and 67 percent in California and Wisconsin. Certain states (NM, MO, WI, CA) had high proportions of reunification levels during the first month. This may reflect entry decisions as well as exit practice. Some states (WI, NM, MI) demonstrated higher levels of continuing reunification after 6 months.

Analysis of Reunification

The likelihood of reunification is related to a number of variables describing both child and case characteristics. These were analyzed using multivariate techniques to control for the fact that the characteristic variables are themselves highly interrelated.

Child Characteristics:

Case Characteristics:

Trends:

States:

Analysis of Reentry After Reunification

Overall, 17 percent of the observed family reunifications resulted in the child re-entering foster care within one year of exit. Reentry to foster care is a significant signal that the reunification was not fully successful. A multivariate analysis was performed on the likelihood of reentry after an exit by reunification.

Higher reentry levels were observed for children who entered care during their teenage years, children who had been placed in congregate care arrangements during their stay in foster care, children whose initial spell in care was shorter in duration, children who had previously experienced a reentry to foster care, children from the non-urban counties, and for African-American children.

Lower reentry levels were observed for children who had entered as pre-teens, children who had been placed in family foster homes, children whose previous spell had been longer in duration, children who had experienced only one stay in foster care, children from large urban counties, and for Hispanic children.

The states with the highest reentry rates were Wisconsin and Illinois. While Wisconsin was also one of the states with higher levels of reunification, Illinois was one of the lower reunification states, so there is no evidence of a clear relationship between reunification rates and reentry rates at the aggregate level. Alabama and Michigan had the lowest reentry levels.

The likelihood of reentry after reunification exits was increasing moderately over time.

Adoption Analysis

Exits from foster care by completed adoption were analyzed using the same multivariate tools that were applied in the analysis of exits by reunification.

The age of the child at entry to foster care is the dominant factor in these models. Children who were placed in foster care as newborns (0-2 months of age) had a much greater likelihood of adoption than other children. (Approximately 3 times higher than children who entered at 3-12 months of age, 5 times higher than 1-2 years, etc.) This is a combination of the "attractiveness" of young children to potential adoptive parents and of the increased chance that the birth parents of newborns placed in foster care might be at higher risk of losing their parental rights than parents of older children.

Other factors related to increased likelihood of adoption include: children from non-urban counties, white children, children in first foster placements, children in family foster arrangements, and children with longer duration in alternative care.

Factors related to a lower likelihood of adoption include: children from large urban counties, African-American children, children who have reentered foster care at least once, children in congregate care placements, and children with briefer duration of time in foster care.

A substantial increase in adoptions was noted over time, with children who entered foster care in 1993 being over 20 percent more likely to exit via adoption than the children who entered foster care in 1990.

Michigan has a much higher likelihood of foster care adoption than any of the other eight states. Alabama, California, New York and Illinois have the lowest likelihoods of adoption.

[ Go to Contents ]

Endnotes

1.  The dates of coverage for Maryland and New Mexico are for fiscal years 1990 through 1997 (July 1, 1989 through June 30, 1996). In the analysis, these fiscal year data will be compared directly to calendar year date from the other seven states.

2.  Ideally, we would also consider attributes of the family of origin, the parents (or other home caregivers), and the home environment; but this type of information is not generally available through child welfare tracking systems.

3.  The analysis in later sections will focus almost exclusively on reunification rates (the likelihood of reunification among entrants). The focus on exit distribution in this section is to highlight the differences between children who are reunified and children who exit in other ways.

4.  Other evidence suggests that a large share of the exits coded as "other" in Illinois (17.8% of exits) may actually be relative exits.

5.  Please note that kinship care is not tracked in Alabama, Michigan, and Wisconsin because it is not fully identifiable in their data systems. Kinship placements in these states are combined with nonrelative foster care. Fortunately, for these analyses, none of these states uses kinship placement with the frequency that Illinois, New York, and California do.

6.  Looking at reunification as a proportion for all entries (rather than exits) illustrates the issue discussed here. During the period of observation, about 43 percent of children in kinship care were reunified, as compared to 48 percent of children in nonrelative foster care and congregate care. Therefore, while a higher proportion of exits from kin care were by reunification, a lower proportion of kinship care cases were observed to result in reunification.

7.  Each cell in the third panel is produced by dividing the 1994 number by the 1990 number, and subtracting 1 from the result. Each cell in the fourth panel is obtained by subtracting the 1990 number from the 1994 number. The third panel is the focus of analysis. The fourth panel is to remind us that certain large proportional changes can result from small numbers.

8.  The following are equivalent expressions: 9-11 year olds are 2.56 times more likely to reunify than infants. Infants are 156 percent less likely to reunify than 9-11 year olds. The odds ratio of reunification between infants and 9-11 year olds is .39 to 1.

9.  Primary urban counties have been as follows: AL (Jefferson), CA (Los Angeles), IL (Cook), MD (Baltimore City), MI (Wayne), MO (Jackson and St. Louis City), NM (Bernalillo), NY (New York City), and WI (Milwaukee).

10.  Because kinship care cannot be identified in all states, relative and nonrelative foster care are combined into one category for the nine-state analysis tables that follow, a category for kinship care will be reported separately. For states where kinship cannot be identified, relative and nonrelative care will continue to be combined, and the value for kinship care is reported as "missing."

11.  This argument is presented in its simplest form. Indeed, some reentry is probably better than none, although defining an optimal level involves both technical and normative questions. If no children reenter foster care, it could be understood to imply that the decisions to reunify have been made too conservatively. In this case we should be concerned that a large number of potentially successful reunifications are avoided for fear of possible failure. However, we believe the reentry levels we report here are generally above the levels one would consider optimal.

12.  It is also worth noting that some states pay providers more according to the degree of difficulty to adopt.


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