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This work describes discharges from foster care, with a focus on those exits that are accomplished by reunifying the foster child with his or her family of origin. The data presented cover a time period from 1990 through 1997. Child welfare practice has undergone substantial change since the mid-1990s. Some changes are due to new federal legislation, such as the Adoption and Safe Families Act of 1997. Others result from policy and practice reform at the state and local levels. As a result, the size and dynamics of current-day foster care caseloads in some states already differ substantially from their experience during the early and mid-1990's. The information that follows provides a description of exits from foster care, based on actual records of child histories in care. It is intended to be used as a baseline against which current and future patterns of exit from foster care can be measured and evaluated.
The tables presented include foster care exit dynamics for nine states: Alabama, California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, New York, and Wisconsin. The data for these analyses is drawn from the Multistate Foster Care Data Archive at the Chapin Hall Center for Children. The Archive was created with individual level records extracted from the automated administrative tracking systems of each state's public child welfare agency and supplied by the states to Chapin Hall for analytic purposes.
The universe for this analysis includes all episodes of child placement in substitute care arrangements that began during the years 1990 through 1997.(1) Each episode (or spell in placement) is tracked either until the child exits from foster care or until the end of 1997. If the child entered care more than once between 1990 and 1997, each spell is retained as a separate event.
Many findings are pooled across all nine states to reveal general trends and patterns. Because these nine states combined contain well over half of the nation's foster care population, observations based on these data should be useful for describing relationships at the national level. However, these data should not be considered as fully representative of the national foster care population, and these nine states are not a representative sample of all state child welfare systems.
This document describes the table contents and figures (located at the end of the document), and highlights some of the patterns and findings observed within them. The discussion of the first table also introduces and describes most of the variables that are used throughout the analysis.
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In order to understand patterns of reunification from foster care, it is useful to consider reunification in the context of all exits from care, and in the context of the individual characteristics and the case histories of the children involved.(2) Table IIA.1 presents an overview of exits from foster care. The left side of the table contains counts of spells by type of exit, classified first by state, then by four child characteristics, and finally by each of four case characteristics. This series of two-way tables is based on a universe of 404,416 distinct spells in foster care. These are all spells that began with a foster placement between 1990-94 in any of the nine states, and are enumerated in the first column, labeled "All Entries. These spells are each tracked until the child is discharged from foster care or through the end of 1997. So the potential period of observation is at least three years (for children who entered care at the end of 1994), and at most eight years (for children who entered care at the start of 1990.
The second column, labeled "No Exit, Still in Care," indicates how many of these spells were still open at the end of 1997. Just under one-fifth (75,199 or 18.6%) of the children who entered care between 1990 and 1994 remained in care through the end of observation. It is important, to note that exits from some long-term stays in care are not observed and are not reported in this table, so that the completed duration and the eventual discharge destination at exit for these spells are censored from this analysis. However, we do know that all of these censored spells, by definition, have a duration of three years or more, and as will be seen, reunification is a fairly rare outcome after three years. Therefore, we assume that these censored spells would probably add little new information to most of this reunification analysis. However, it should be noted that exits from stays of over three years are incompletely described in these tables. The proportion still in care is computed against a base of all entries.
The exit distribution is presented with six categories for destination at exit:
Looking at the first row of Table IIA. I , we see that of the 404,416 spells observed, 187,406 ended with a family reunification. There were also 23,398 exits to other relatives, 38,291 completed adoptions, 9,583 children "aging out" of care, 23,635 runaways, and 46,904 spells that exited to "other" destinations. On the right side of the table, each exit type is presented as a proportion of all observed exits. Therefore, the statistic reporting that the proportion of reunification spells for all nine states combined is .569 should be interpreted as meaning that 56.9 percent of all spells where an exit was observed were exits by reunification.
During the period of observation, the majority of exits (57%) were achieved through family reunification. Of the remainder, 7 percent were to relatives, 12 percent via adoption, 3 percent reached majority, 7 percent involved runaways from care, and 14 percent were in the "other" category. This exit distribution for the spells from the pooled nine-state data provides a yardstick against which the distributions for each state or subgroup will be compared.
It is important to note that the distributions presented in Table IIA. I describe each type of exit as a proportion of all observed exits, not as a proportion of all entries. If the 9-state reunification statistic (.569) were recomputed as a proportion of all spells, we would see that 46.3 percent of all entry spells were observed to end in reunification by the end of 1997. This latter statistic is usually what would be considered as a reunification rate, in that it describes the likelihood of reunification for an entire population at risk. The difference between the two measures is caused by spells where an exit is not observed. The relationship of these statistics is presented in Figure A. Here, we can see that the reunification rate (reunifications/entries) can be described as the product of a) the likelihood of exit (exits/entries), and b) the likelihood that an exit is by reunification (reunifications/exits). Alabama has one of the highest exit rates, so the low reunification rate must be interpreted in the context of knowing that many children exit foster care in other ways. In contrast, the low reunification rate in Illinois must be understood in the context of low overall exit rates -- as relatively few children leave foster care to other destinations.(3)
| Counts | Proportion of Entries | Proportion of Exits | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Entries | No Exit | Exit Type | No Exit | Exit Type | |||||||||||
| Still in Care | Reunify | Relative Care | Adopt | Reach Majority | Run Away | Other Exit | Still in Care | Reunify | Relative Care | Adopt | Reach Majority | Run Away | Other Exit | ||
| State | |||||||||||||||
| Alabama | 9,224 | 774 | 2,423 | 2,668 | 454 | 50 | 269 | 2,586 | 0.084 | 0.287 | 0.316 | 0.054 | 0.006 | 0.032 | 0.306 |
| California | 143,973 | 30,944 | 75,910 | 2,838 | 10,571 | 4,181 | 6,351 | 13,178 | 0.215 | 0.672 | 0.025 | 0.094 | 0.037 | 0.056 | 0.117 |
| Illinois | 56,354 | 20,767 | 17,661 | 915 | 5,506 | 684 | 4,475 | 6,346 | 0.369 | 0.496 | 0.026 | 0.155 | 0.019 | 0.126 | 0.178 |
| Maryland | 14,003 | 2,512 | 5,155 | 2,346 | 1,629 | 676 | 401 | 1,284 | 0.179 | 0.449 | 0.204 | 0.142 | 0.059 | 0.035 | 0.112 |
| Michigan | 31,537 | 1,750 | 14,442 | 3,074 | 5,734 | 619 | 1,264 | 4,654 | 0.055 | 0.485 | 0.103 | 0.193 | 0.021 | 0.042 | 0.156 |
| Missouri | 22,629 | 2,315 | 10,732 | 983 | 2,457 | 390 | 1,204 | 4,548 | 0.102 | 0.528 | 0.048 | 0.121 | 0.019 | 0.059 | 0.224 |
| New Mexico | 5,889 | 275 | 3,342 | 448 | 553 | 172 | 344 | 755 | 0.047 | 0.595 | 0.080 | 0.099 | 0.031 | 0.061 | 0.134 |
| New York | 94,758 | 13,474 | 41,949 | 8,528 | 9,854 | 1,806 | 8,064 | 11,083 | 0.142 | 0.516 | 0.105 | 0.121 | 0.022 | 0.099 | 0.136 |
| Wisconsin | 26,049 | 2,388 | 15,792 | 1,598 | 1,533 | 1,005 | 1,263 | 2,470 | 0.092 | 0.667 | 0.068 | 0.065 | 0.042 | 0.053 | 0.104 |
| Nine State Total | 404,416 | 75,199 | 187,406 | 23,398 | 38,291 | 9,583 | 23,635 | 46,904 | 0.186 | 0.569 | 0.071 | 0.116 | 0.029 | 0.072 | 0.142 |
Child Characteristics |
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Age at Entry |
|||||||||||||||
| < 3 mos. | 51,521 | 13,215 | 15,095 | 2,772 | 15,492 | 0 | 0 | 4,947 | 0.256 | 0.394 | 0.072 | 0.404 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.129 |
| 3-11 mos. | 31,028 | 6,835 | 13,733 | 2,060 | 5,161 | 0 | 0 | 3,239 | 0.220 | 0.568 | 0.085 | 0.213 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.134 |
| 1 to 2 yrs. | 57,188 | 13,032 | 28,155 | 3,773 | 6,835 | 0 | 0 | 5,393 | 0.228 | 0.638 | 0.085 | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.122 |
| 3 to 5 | 61,649 | 15,148 | 31,406 | 3,897 | 5,525 | 0 | 9 | 5,664 | 0.246 | 0.675 | 0.084 | 0.119 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.122 |
| 6 to 8 | 46,372 | 11,556 | 24,199 | 2,924 | 3,036 | 0 | 209 | 4,448 | 0.249 | 0.695 | 0.084 | 0.087 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.128 |
| 9 to 11 | 40,943 | 8,822 | 21,637 | 2,545 | 1,514 | 165 | 1,817 | 4,443 | 0.215 | 0.674 | 0.079 | 0.047 | 0.005 | 0.057 | 0.138 |
| 12 to 14 | 62,742 | 5,498 | 31,067 | 3,315 | 601 | 2,294 | 10,611 | 9,356 | 0.088 | 0.543 | 0.058 | 0.010 | 0.040 | 0.185 | 0.163 |
| 15 to 17 | 52,973 | 1,093 | 22,114 | 2,112 | 127 | 7,124 | 10,989 | 9,414 | 0.021 | 0.426 | 0.041 | 0.002 | 0.137 | 0.212 | 0.181 |
Age at Exit |
|||||||||||||||
| 0 years | 20,487 | 0 | 13,813 | 2,558 | 1,217 | 0 | 0 | 2,899 | 0.000 | 0.674 | 0.125 | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.142 |
| 1 to 2 | 47,325 | 0 | 29,317 | 4,090 | 8,375 | 0 | 0 | 5,543 | 0.000 | 0.619 | 0.086 | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.117 |
| 3 to 5 | 80,501 | 17,848 | 35,440 | 4,578 | 15,529 | 0 | 0 | 7,106 | 0.222 | 0.566 | 0.073 | 0.248 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.113 |
| 6 to 8 | 62,543 | 20,868 | 26,189 | 3,160 | 7,041 | 0 | 0 | 5,285 | 0.334 | 0.628 | 0.076 | 0.169 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.127 |
| 9 to 11 | 46,650 | 13,449 | 22,288 | 2,592 | 3,484 | 0 | 359 | 4,478 | 0.288 | 0.671 | 0.078 | 0.105 | 0.000 | 0.011 | 0.135 |
| 12 to 14 | 58,176 | 10,620 | 27,935 | 3,101 | 1,883 | 59 | 7,220 | 7,358 | 0.183 | 0.587 | 0.065 | 0.040 | 0.001 | 0.152 | 0.155 |
| 15 to 17 | 69,444 | 8,747 | 30,330 | 3,016 | 682 | 1,960 | 14,573 | 10,136 | 0.126 | 0.500 | 0.050 | 0.011 | 0.032 | 0.240 | 0.167 |
| Over 17 yrs | 19,290 | 3,667 | 2,094 | 303 | 80 | 7,564 | 1,483 | 4,099 | 0.190 | 0.134 | 0.019 | 0.005 | 0.484 | 0.095 | 0.262 |
Gender |
|||||||||||||||
| Female | 207,204 | 37,079 | 95,132 | 12,124 | 18,895 | 6,095 | 14,803 | 23,076 | 0.179 | 0.559 | 0.071 | 0.111 | 0.036 | 0.087 | 0.136 |
| Male | 197,212 | 38,120 | 92,274 | 11,274 | 19,396 | 3,488 | 8,832 | 23,828 | 0.193 | 0.580 | 0.071 | 0.122 | 0.022 | 0.056 | 0.150 |
Race/Ethnicity |
|||||||||||||||
| African American | 161,625 | 44,281 | 59,368 | 11,302 | 16,070 | 2,794 | 9,057 | 18,753 | 0.274 | 0.506 | 0.096 | 0.137 | 0.024 | 0.077 | 0.160 |
| Hispanic | 61,343 | 11,049 | 32,146 | 2,544 | 4,301 | 1,381 | 4,046 | 5,876 | 0.180 | 0.639 | 0.051 | 0.086 | 0.027 | 0.080 | 0.117 |
| Other | 31,480 | 4,167 | 14,730 | 2,367 | 2,866 | 795 | 2,683 | 3,872 | 0.132 | 0.539 | 0.087 | 0.105 | 0.029 | 0.098 | 0.142 |
| White | 149,968 | 15,702 | 81,162 | 7,185 | 15,054 | 4,613 | 7,849 | 18,403 | 0.105 | 0.604 | 0.054 | 0.112 | 0.034 | 0.058 | 0.137 |
Case Characteristics |
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Spell Sequence |
|||||||||||||||
| First Spell | 352,029 | 67,390 | 166,035 | 20,842 | 34,935 | 7,833 | 15,624 | 39,370 | 0.191 | 0.583 | 0.073 | 0.123 | 0.028 | 0.055 | 0.138 |
| Reentry Spell | 52,387 | 7,809 | 21,371 | 2,556 | 3,356 | 1,750 | 8,011 | 7,534 | 0.149 | 0.479 | 0.057 | 0.075 | 0.039 | 0.180 | 0.169 |
Duration |
|||||||||||||||
| < 1 mo | 49,767 | 0 | 34,820 | 5,027 | 271 | 90 | 4,048 | 5,511 | 0.000 | 0.700 | 0.101 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.081 | 0.111 |
| 1 to 3 months | 46,432 | 0 | 30,905 | 4,336 | 510 | 216 | 4,297 | 6,168 | 0.000 | 0.666 | 0.093 | 0.011 | 0.005 | 0.093 | 0.133 |
| 4 to 6 months | 35,492 | 0 | 23,517 | 2,862 | 459 | 334 | 3,309 | 5,011 | 0.000 | 0.663 | 0.081 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.093 | 0.141 |
| 6 mos to 1 year | 48,657 | 0 | 33,358 | 3,197 | 1,706 | 872 | 3,661 | 5,863 | 0.000 | 0.686 | 0.066 | 0.035 | 0.018 | 0.075 | 0.120 |
| 1 year to 18 mos | 36,557 | 0 | 24,329 | 2,210 | 2,170 | 1,041 | 2,165 | 4,642 | 0.000 | 0.666 | 0.060 | 0.059 | 0.028 | 0.059 | 0.127 |
| 18 mos to 2 year | 26,752 | 0 | 15,077 | 1,655 | 3,141 | 1,097 | 1,529 | 4,253 | 0.000 | 0.564 | 0.062 | 0.117 | 0.041 | 0.057 | 0.159 |
| 2 to 3 year | 36,103 | 0 | 14,327 | 2,040 | 9,777 | 1,948 | 2,098 | 5,913 | 0.000 | 0.397 | 0.057 | 0.271 | 0.054 | 0.058 | 0.164 |
| 3 years + | 124,656 | 75,199 | 11,073 | 2,071 | 20,257 | 3,985 | 2,528 | 9,543 | 0.603 | 0.224 | 0.042 | 0.410 | 0.081 | 0.051 | 0.193 |
Placement Type |
|||||||||||||||
| Congregate Care | 64,836 | 4,602 | 30,990 | 3,529 | 739 | 2,195 | 11,932 | 10,849 | 0.071 | 0.514 | 0.059 | 0.012 | 0.036 | 0.198 | 0.180 |
| Foster Care | 214,991 | 31,805 | 103,302 | 14,303 | 30,038 | 4,955 | 8,029 | 22,559 | 0.148 | 0.564 | 0.078 | 0.164 | 0.027 | 0.044 | 0.123 |
| Kinship Care | 108,750 | 35,027 | 46,611 | 5,084 | 6,738 | 1,478 | 2,356 | 11,456 | 0.322 | 0.632 | 0.069 | 0.091 | 0.020 | 0.032 | 0.155 |
| Mixed Type | 15,839 | 3,765 | 6,503 | 482 | 776 | 955 | 1,318 | 2,040 | 0.238 | 0.539 | 0.040 | 0.064 | 0.079 | 0.109 | 0.169 |
Placement Stability |
|||||||||||||||
| 1 placement | 207,134 | 22,650 | 117,125 | 14,699 | 12,216 | 3,958 | 11,212 | 25,274 | 0.109 | 0.635 | 0.080 | 0.066 | 0.021 | 0.061 | 0.137 |
| 2 placements | 97,561 | 18,850 | 42,557 | 5,317 | 12,391 | 2,260 | 5,284 | 10,902 | 0.193 | 0.541 | 0.068 | 0.157 | 0.029 | 0.067 | 0.139 |
| 3-4 placements | 66,504 | 19,090 | 21,272 | 2,688 | 9,981 | 2,025 | 4,161 | 7,287 | 0.287 | 0.449 | 0.057 | 0.211 | 0.043 | 0.088 | 0.154 |
| 5+ placements | 33,217 | 14,609 | 6,452 | 694 | 3,703 | 1,340 | 2,978 | 3,441 | 0.440 | 0.347 | 0.037 | 0.199 | 0.072 | 0.160 | 0.185 |
Figure A
Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care Components of Reunification
Rates
The proportions in Figure A.1 report the likelihood that a child or
youth entering foster care between 1990 and 1994 exited before 1998 via
reunification with their family.
One decomposition of the proportions in Figure A.1 is represented
in Figure A.2, which presents the likelihood of any exit from care and the
proportion of exits that are achieved via reunification. Mathematically,
the likelihood of reunification is the product of these two separate proportions.
Individually, the nine states present very different patterns of exit distribution from foster care. Illinois and California had the largest proportion of children remaining in care, which meant that they had the greatest share of long duration foster spells. Over one-third of the spells in Illinois and one-fifth of the spells in California had not been completed by the end of 1997. By contrast, in five states (Alabama, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, and Wisconsin) only one tenth or fewer of all spells remained open in 1997. To the extent that reunification is related to the length-of-stay in foster care, this is a very significant dynamic to remember during this analysis.
Reunification levels differ by state -- from 28.7 percent of exits in Alabama to 67.2 percent in California and 66.7 percent in Wisconsin. In the other six states, 45-60 percent of all foster care exits were family reunification. This state-to-state variation in the use of reunification to end episodes of foster care placement is substantial. Alabama is a clear outlier, with far lower proportions of reunification exits than any of the other states, but the reunification levels among the remaining eight states still vary widely, from 45 percent to 67 percent of observed exits.
Exits to relatives also differ widely among states. Alabama and Maryland reported the most family discharges (31.6% and 20.4%), while California and Illinois each reported less than 3 percent family exits.(4) This is a difficult category to interpret, because it represents differences in foster care practice and in state data definitions. The child welfare agencies in Alabama and Maryland tended to use strategies that supported kinship placements outside of the formal foster care system, while California, Illinois and New York placed a substantial number of foster children in kinship arrangements within the foster care system. When exit to relatives and reunification are combined into a single category of "family exits," the variation between states is somewhat smaller than it is for either exit type considered alone. In part, the higher level of exit to relatives helps to explain why the reunification levels in Alabama and Maryland are very low. It should also be noted that children in care in California, New York, and Illinois (but in kin placements) may be similar to the exits to relative placements elsewhere.
Michigan has the highest rate of completed adoption with almost one-fifth (.193) of foster care spells ending with adoptive placement. Exits by adoption were least common in Alabama and Wisconsin (.054 and.065).
Few children exit foster care because they reach majority (or "age out"), with Maryland showing the highest proportion at .059.
Illinois (.126) and New York (.099) have the highest rates of runaway exits.
Overall, "other" exits represent almost 15 percent of all foster care spell endings. These are particularly common in Alabama (.306) and Missouri (.224). In both cases, most of the "other" exits are to unknown destinations. It is possible that many of these undefined exits are by reunification, but that the exit reason coded in the data system was represented in some unidentifiable way (such as by a change in legal status).
Age at entry is the age of the child at the time of their initial placement into this spell in care. Reunification levels are highest for children who enter the foster care spell between the ages of 3 and 11 years. Over two-thirds of the exits for these children are by reunification. Reunification is least likely for children who enter as infants (39% of exits for children entering under 3 months of age) or as adolescents (43% of children 15-17 years).
The youngest children are much more likely than others to leave foster care via adoption (40% of exits for children <3 months, 21% for children 3-11 months). For the 0-3 month entry group, more spells end through adoption than through reunification. Adoption becomes a far less likely outcome as the age at entry to foster care increases. Older entrants are far more likely to leave foster care via runaway, by reaching majority, or for "other" reasons.
Age at exit. This variable is the age of the child at the end of the spell in care. While the previous finding shows that the youngest children are least likely to exit by reunification, those young entrants who do exit quickly (and thus are still very young at exit) have very high rates of reunification and high rates of relative placement. This is partly because the large number of infants that move to the adoptive track tend to remain in care for several years, and are older by the time they exit. Adoption is most likely for children who leave care at age 3-5, almost one quarter (.248) of whom exit by adoption. Aging out of care and exiting by runaway occur only for foster children in their teens. That these exit types are age-limited, and are not available exit options for young children.
Gender. The relationship between gender and the type of exit from foster care is very weak. Boys are somewhat more likely to remain in care longer, and slightly more likely to be reunified. Girls are slightly more likely to reach majority in care, and somewhat more likely than boys to run away from substitute care arrangements.
Race/Ethnicity. Hispanic foster children who leave foster care are more likely to be reunified (.639) than children from the other groups, and are the least likely to exit to relative care or by adoption. African American children who exit are the least likely to be reunified (.506), while they are the most likely to exit to relative care or adoption. The exit patterns of white children in foster care fall between these extremes, with a reunification proportion (.604) somewhat closer to the Hispanics than to the African Americans. White children, however, are more likely to leave foster care without experiencing long-term stays before exit. Just over 10 percent of the white children who entered care in 1990-94 remained in care at the end of 1997, compared to 18 percent of Hispanic children and 27 percent of African American children.
Spell sequence is defined by whether this is the first foster care experience for the child or a reentry spell in care. Children exiting from their first spell in foster care are more likely to be reunified than children who have already left care and then reentered (.583 vs. .479). Children exiting first spells are also more likely to exit to relative care (.073 vs. .057) and to be adopted from care (.123 vs. .075). Runaway and "other" exits are far more common for reentrants (.180 and .169) than for children experiencing a first spell in care (.055 and .138).
Duration of spell is the length of stay in a completed spell in care. By the design of this study population, all spells with duration of less than three years are completed, while approximately three-fifths of the spells with duration of three years or more are censored. The proportion of reunifications decreases as the length of stay in foster care increases. For all spells that exit in less than 18 months, over two-thirds end with family reunification. In contrast, of the completed spells that lasted over 3 years, less than one-quarter (.224) ended through reunification. Exits to relatives follow a similar pattern to reunification. Adoptive exits and exits by aging out are most likely from long spells in foster care. One implication of shorter spells showing high levels of reunification is that reunification tends to occur more quickly than other exits.
Placement type is defined by the of primary type of care experienced during a spell. A spell is classified as kinship care,(5) congregate care (institution and group home), or nonrelative foster care if the child spent more than one-half of their days in care in that type of placement. If no care type was primary, then the spell is classified as being of "mixed" type. Among observed exits, children in kinship placements are the most likely to be reunified with their families (.632). This suggests that kinship care can in some cases work to maintain family ties during the period of removal from the home. This statistic must be interpreted cautiously, though, because children in kinship placement also tend to remain in care the longest, and were the least likely to exit at all within the study period. (6) Only two-thirds of the kinship placement spells were completed, while 85 percent of children in nonrelative foster placements and 93 percent of children in congregate care facilities have observed exits. Children exiting congregate care spells were the least likely to reunify (.514), and the most likely to exit by runaway (.198) or "other" exit (.180). Children in nonrelative foster care were much more likely to be adopted (.164) than children in other placements.
Placement stability is defined by the number of different physical placements (and caregivers) a child experiences within a spell in care. Reunification is far more likely from a foster care spell that involves placement in only one home or facility. Two-thirds (.635) of the children who exited from a one-placement spell returned home upon exit. As the number of placements within a spell increases, the reunification rate decreases. A similar pattern applies to relative exits.
Adoptions are more common among children exiting spells with multiple placements. One explanation is that adoptive placements usually require some movement, as children on the adoptive track are often shifted into a pre-adoptive foster care arrangements.
Table IIA.1presented nine sets of two-way tables. Taken together, they demonstrate that there is systematic and substantial variability in the patterns of exit from foster care spells. Of all nine variables, only gender did not produce an important qualification about the use of reunification to end spells in foster care. Variables with particularly strong relationships were state, age at entry, and spell duration. Some of the more important relationships are portrayed graphically in Figure B.
Figure B
Proportion of Observations Exit from Foster Care, By Destination and Selected
Characteristics 1990-1994. Entries Observed Through December 31, 1997. Nine
States.
As observed by their relationships with the other variables, it appears that reunification exits and family exits are related -- in that they tend to occur commonly to the same type of children and in similar case situations. These observations suggest that we might consider them together as permanency solutions. This will be examined in a following section where they are combined into a single category termed "family exits."
However, these bivariate findings also pose questions. One issue is the high interrelation among the independent variables (multicollinearity). For example, placement stability is highly correlated with duration and with placement type. The relationships seen in the two-way tables between exit type and any of these variables might easily be caused by one of the other related predictors, by a combination of the predictors, or by another related factor that is not described. To address this issue of multicollinearity, multivariate analyses will be presented later in the report that use the predictor variables simultaneously.
Another issue is interpreting what a variable actually represents. For example, age at entry can capture many dimensions of a foster care case. The high level for adoption of infants is partially due to child characteristics (e.g., their attractiveness on the adoption market). But it is also true that the family situations that lead to the removal of infants also involve a large share of cases where terminating parental rights and initiating the adoptive process is thought to be necessary. These tables demonstrate that reunification is complex and multidimensional, and we see that interpretations should be made with care.
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Exits from foster care are presented in this section in a format designed to encourage comparisons of the rates and the timing of foster care exit activity, both between states and across time. A series of 10 pages of tables, plus one summary, is employed.
Table IIB.1 Reunification Tracking Tables for Annual
Entries to Foster Care
(Pooled information for all nine states combined)
| Year | A. Number of Exits in Interval(months) | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 9,506 | 8,979 | 6,671 | 8,831 | 6,748 | 5,086 | 6,598 | 14,019 | 66,438 | 74,162 |
1991 |
9,811 | 9,374 | 6,898 | 9,130 | 7,058 | 4,983 | 6,825 | 12,991 | 67,070 | 77,324 |
1992 |
9,801 | 8,861 | 6,685 | 9,673 | 7,229 | 5,143 | 6,951 | 10,896 | 65,239 | 78,580 |
1993 |
10,185 | 9,395 | 7,485 | 10,006 | 7,448 | 5,479 | 7,583 | 8,012 | 65,593 | 83,293 |
1994 |
10,464 | 9,823 | 7,753 | 11,017 | 8,074 | 6,061 | 8,146 | 3,539 | 64,877 | 91,057 |
1995 |
10,038 | 9,455 | 7,527 | 10,353 | 7,536 | 5,463 | 4,507 | 54,879 | 86,301 | |
1996 |
10,885 | 9,118 | 7,598 | 10,532 | 6,326 | 1,675 | 46,134 | 94,013 | ||
1997 |
9,874 | 7,461 | 4,629 | 2,948 | 24,912 | 90,013 | ||||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
||||||||||
Year |
B. Number of Reunifications in Interval (months) | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
1990 |
6,914 | 6,164 | 4,621 | 6,202 | 4,588 | 2,949 | 2,786 | 3,454 | 37,678 |
1991 |
6,932 | 6,237 | 4,603 | 6,234 | 4,687 | 2,803 | 2,839 | 2,924 | 37,259 |
1992 |
6,691 | 5,857 | 4,349 | 6,558 | 4,764 | 2,922 | 2,859 | 2,304 | 36,304 |
1993 |
7,109 | 6,152 | 4,941 | 6,837 | 4,896 | 3,047 | 2,945 | 1,673 | 37,600 |
1994 |
7,174 | 6,495 | 5,003 | 7,527 | 5,394 | 3,356 | 2,898 | 718 | 38,565 |
1995 |
6,707 | 6,062 | 4,885 | 6,807 | 4,845 | 2,735 | 1,517 | 33,558 | |
1996 |
7,003 | 5,300 | 4,568 | 6,337 | 3,633 | 759 | 27,600 | ||
1997 |
5,794 | 4,018 | 2,531 | 1,499 | 13,842 | ||||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
|||||||||
Year |
C. Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.128 | 0.249 | 0.339 | 0.458 | 0.549 | 0.618 | 0.707 | 0.896 |
1991 |
0.127 | 0.248 | 0.337 | 0.455 | 0.547 | 0.611 | 0.699 | 0.867 |
1992 |
0.125 | 0.237 | 0.323 | 0.446 | 0.538 | 0.603 | 0.692 | 0.830 |
1993 |
0.122 | 0.235 | 0.325 | 0.445 | 0.534 | 0.600 | 0.691 | 0.787 |
1994 |
0.115 | 0.223 | 0.308 | 0.429 | 0.518 | 0.584 | 0.674 | 0.712 |
1995 |
0.116 | 0.226 | 0.313 | 0.433 | 0.520 | 0.584 | 0.636 | |
1996 |
0.116 | 0.213 | 0.294 | 0.406 | 0.473 | 0.491 | ||
1997 |
0.110 | 0.193 | 0.244 | 0.277 | ||||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
||||||||
Year |
D. Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.093 | 0.176 | 0.239 | 0.322 | 0.384 | 0.424 | 0.461 | 0.508 |
1991 |
0.090 | 0.170 | 0.230 | 0.310 | 0.371 | 0.407 | 0.444 | 0.482 |
1992 |
0.085 | 0.160 | 0.215 | 0.298 | 0.359 | 0.396 | 0.433 | 0.462 |
1993 |
0.085 | 0.159 | 0.219 | 0.301 | 0.359 | 0.396 | 0.431 | 0.451 |
1994 |
0.079 | 0.150 | 0.205 | 0.288 | 0.347 | 0.384 | 0.416 | 0.424 |
1995 |
0.078 | 0.148 | 0.205 | 0.283 | 0.340 | 0.371 | 0.389 | |
1996 |
0.074 | 0.131 | 0.179 | 0.247 | 0.286 | 0.294 | ||
1997 |
0.064 | 0.109 | 0.137 | 0.154 | ||||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
||||||||
Year |
E. Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
1990 |
0.128 | 0.069 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.028 | 0.025 | 0.019 |
1991 |
0.127 | 0.069 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.028 | 0.024 | 0.019 |
1992 |
0.125 | 0.064 | 0.037 | 0.030 | 0.028 | 0.024 | 0.019 |
1993 |
0.122 | 0.064 | 0.039 | 0.030 | 0.027 | 0.024 | 0.019 |
1994 |
0.115 | 0.061 | 0.037 | 0.029 | 0.026 | 0.023 | 0.018 |
1995 |
0.116 | 0.062 | 0.038 | 0.029 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.010 |
1996 |
0.116 | 0.055 | 0.034 | 0.026 | 0.019 | 0.006 | |
1997 |
0.110 | 0.047 | 0.021 | 0.007 | |||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
|||||||
Year |
F. Average Monthly Reunification Rate During Interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
1990 |
0.093 | 0.048 | 0.028 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.015 | 0.008 |
1991 |
0.090 | 0.046 | 0.026 | 0.020 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.008 |
1992 |
0.085 | 0.043 | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.008 |
1993 |
0.085 | 0.042 | 0.026 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.007 |
1994 |
0.079 | 0.040 | 0.024 | 0.020 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.006 |
1995 |
0.078 | 0.040 | 0.024 | 0.019 | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.004 |
1996 |
0.074 | 0.032 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |
1997 |
0.064 | 0.025 | 0.012 | 0.004 | |||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
|||||||
Year |
G. Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.727 | 0.707 | 0.704 | 0.703 | 0.699 | 0.686 | 0.653 | 0.567 |
1991 |
0.707 | 0.686 | 0.681 | 0.682 | 0.679 | 0.667 | 0.635 | 0.556 |
1992 |
0.683 | 0.672 | 0.667 | 0.670 | 0.668 | 0.657 | 0.626 | 0.556 |
1993 |
0.698 | 0.677 | 0.673 | 0.675 | 0.672 | 0.660 | 0.624 | 0.573 |
1994 |
0.686 | 0.674 | 0.666 | 0.671 | 0.670 | 0.657 | 0.617 | 0.594 |
1995 |
0.668 | 0.655 | 0.653 | 0.655 | 0.653 | 0.636 | 0.611 | |
1996 |
0.643 | 0.615 | 0.611 | 0.609 | 0.604 | 0.598 | ||
1997 |
0.587 | 0.566 | 0.562 | 0.556 | ||||
| Notes: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). By calendar year in 7 states. By fiscal year in Maryland and New Mexico. |
||||||||
Tables IIB.2 Reunification Tracking Tables, by State
(Tables with the same information for each state separately, plus a summary
page).
Year |
Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
1990 |
391 | 414 | 269 | 271 | 171 | 120 | 118 | 175 | 1,929 | 2,004 |
1991 |
433 | 392 | 269 | 268 | 147 | 90 | 107 | 155 | 1,861 | 1,960 |
1992 |
421 | 316 | 289 | 248 | 149 | 67 | 85 | 148 | 1,723 | 1,855 |
1993 |
295 | 377 | 195 | 248 | 126 | 65 | 102 | 79 | 1,487 | 1,692 |
1994 |
326 | 319 | 236 | 241 | 144 | 75 | 76 | 33 | 1,450 | 1,713 |
1995 |
286 | 301 | 164 | 213 | 98 | 84 | 58 | 1,204 | 1,582 | |
1996 |
337 | 322 | 264 | 305 | 95 | 17 | 1,340 | 2,107 | ||
1997 |
332 | 292 | 160 | 90 | 874 | 2,101 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
Year |
Number of Reunifications in Interval | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
1990 |
180 | 135 | 100 | 73 | 31 | 23 | 17 | 19 | 578 |
1991 |
172 | 132 | 91 | 65 | 30 | 22 | 13 | 16 | 541 |
1992 |
171 | 84 | 72 | 73 | 31 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 465 |
1993 |
128 | 116 | 49 | 78 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 429 |
1994 |
94 | 109 | 73 | 61 | 38 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 410 |
1995 |
136 | 113 | 58 | 62 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 417 | |
1996 |
112 | 99 | 79 | 86 | 26 | 3 | 405 | ||
1997 |
111 | 97 | 46 | 14 | 268 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
Year |
Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.195 | 0.402 | 0.536 | 0.671 | 0.756 | 0.816 | 0.875 | 0.963 |
1991 |
0.221 | 0.421 | 0.558 | 0.695 | 0.770 | 0.816 | 0.870 | 0.949 |
1992 |
0.227 | 0.397 | 0.553 | 0.687 | 0.767 | 0.803 | 0.849 | 0.929 |
1993 |
0.174 | 0.397 | 0.512 | 0.659 | 0.733 | 0.772 | 0.832 | 0.879 |
1994 |
0.190 | 0.377 | 0.514 | 0.655 | 0.739 | 0.783 | 0.827 | 0.846 |
1995 |
0.181 | 0.371 | 0.475 | 0.609 | 0.671 | 0.724 | 0.761 | |
1996 |
0.160 | 0.313 | 0.438 | 0.583 | 0.628 | 0.636 | ||
1997 |
0.158 | 0.297 | 0.373 | 0.416 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
Year |
Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.090 | 0.157 | 0.207 | 0.244 | 0.259 | 0.270 | 0.279 | 0.288 |
1991 |
0.088 | 0.155 | 0.202 | 0.235 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.268 | 0.276 |
1992 |
0.092 | 0.137 | 0.176 | 0.216 | 0.232 | 0.237 | 0.244 | 0.251 |
1993 |
0.076 | 0.144 | 0.173 | 0.219 | 0.233 | 0.243 | 0.251 | 0.254 |
1994 |
0.055 | 0.119 | 0.161 | 0.197 | 0.219 | 0.231 | 0.238 | 0.239 |
1995 |
0.086 | 0.157 | 0.194 | 0.233 | 0.248 | 0.260 | 0.264 | |
1996 |
0.053 | 0.100 | 0.138 | 0.178 | 0.191 | 0.192 | ||
1997 |
0.053 | 0.099 | 0.121 | 0.128 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.195 | 0.128 | 0.075 | 0.049 | 0.043 | 0.041 | 0.027 |
| 1991 | 0.221 | 0.128 | 0.079 | 0.052 | 0.041 | 0.033 | 0.025 |
| 1992 | 0.227 | 0.110 | 0.086 | 0.050 | 0.043 | 0.026 | 0.019 |
| 1993 | 0.174 | 0.135 | 0.064 | 0.050 | 0.036 | 0.024 | 0.022 |
| 1994 | 0.190 | 0.115 | 0.074 | 0.048 | 0.041 | 0.028 | 0.017 |
| 1995 | 0.181 | 0.116 | 0.055 | 0.043 | 0.026 | 0.027 | 0.011 |
| 1996 | 0.160 | 0.091 | 0.061 | 0.043 | 0.018 | 0.004 | |
| 1997 | 0.158 | 0.083 | 0.036 | 0.011 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.090 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.004 |
| 1991 | 0.088 | 0.043 | 0.027 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| 1992 | 0.092 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| 1993 | 0.076 | 0.042 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| 1994 | 0.055 | 0.039 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| 1995 | 0.086 | 0.044 | 0.019 | 0.012 | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| 1996 | 0.053 | 0.028 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.005 | 0.001 | |
| 1997 | 0.053 | 0.027 | 0.010 | 0.002 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.460 | 0.391 | 0.386 | 0.363 | 0.342 | 0.331 | 0.319 | 0.300 |
| 1991 | 0.397 | 0.368 | 0.361 | 0.338 | 0.325 | 0.320 | 0.308 | 0.291 |
| 1992 | 0.406 | 0.346 | 0.319 | 0.314 | 0.303 | 0.295 | 0.288 | 0.270 |
| 1993 | 0.434 | 0.363 | 0.338 | 0.333 | 0.317 | 0.315 | 0.302 | 0.289 |
| 1994 | 0.288 | 0.315 | 0.313 | 0.300 | 0.296 | 0.295 | 0.287 | 0.283 |
| 1995 | 0.476 | 0.424 | 0.409 | 0.383 | 0.370 | 0.359 | 0.346 | |
| 1996 | 0.332 | 0.320 | 0.314 | 0.306 | 0.304 | 0.302 | ||
| 1997 | 0.334 | 0.333 | 0.324 | 0.307 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 3,401 | 2,878 | 1,916 | 3,351 | 2,773 | 2,133 | 2,214 | 3,978 | 22,644 | 26,550 |
| 1991 | 3,364 | 3,062 | 2,063 | 3,298 | 2,647 | 1,962 | 2,181 | 3,449 | 22,026 | 26,373 |
| 1992 | 3,330 | 3,021 | 1,934 | 3,331 | 2,846 | 2,069 | 2,366 | 3,035 | 21,932 | 27,653 |
| 1993 | 3,643 | 3,309 | 2,443 | 3,596 | 3,019 | 2,190 | 2,572 | 2,303 | 23,075 | 30,313 |
| 1994 | 3,586 | 3,620 | 2,665 | 3,966 | 3,276 | 2,489 | 2,624 | 1,126 | 23,352 | 33,084 |
| 1995 | 3,476 | 3,304 | 2,540 | 3,581 | 2,898 | 2,002 | 1,614 | 19,415 | 32,572 | |
| 1996 | 3,397 | 2,634 | 2,271 | 3,172 | 2,390 | 752 | 14,616 | 35,474 | ||
| 1997 | 2,577 | 1,786 | 1,039 | 1,084 | 6,486 | 33,372 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | Total Reunifs | |
| 1990 | 2,997 | 2,483 | 1,568 | 2,686 | 2,067 | 1,242 | 778 | 1,070 | 14,891 |
| 1991 | 3,005 | 2,593 | 1,643 | 2,584 | 1,912 | 1,101 | 782 | 833 | 14,453 |
| 1992 | 2,917 | 2,570 | 1,534 | 2,580 | 2,116 | 1,259 | 916 | 659 | 14,551 |
| 1993 | 3,203 | 2,756 | 1,900 | 2,866 | 2,224 | 1,299 | 929 | 395 | 15,572 |
| 1994 | 3,153 | 3,049 | 2,108 | 3,179 | 2,475 | 1,537 | 817 | 125 | 16,443 |
| 1995 | 2,985 | 2,755 | 2,022 | 2,792 | 2,127 | 1,021 | 329 | 14,031 | |
| 1996 | 2,954 | 2,106 | 1,669 | 2,100 | 1,377 | 305 | 10,511 | ||
| 1997 | 2,128 | 1,384 | 699 | 581 | 4,792 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.128 | 0.236 | 0.309 | 0.435 | 0.539 | 0.620 | 0.703 | 0.853 |
| 1991 | 0.128 | 0.244 | 0.322 | 0.447 | 0.547 | 0.622 | 0.704 | 0.835 |
| 1992 | 0.120 | 0.230 | 0.300 | 0.420 | 0.523 | 0.598 | 0.683 | 0.793 |
| 1993 | 0.120 | 0.229 | 0.310 | 0.429 | 0.528 | 0.600 | 0.685 | 0.761 |
| 1994 | 0.108 | 0.218 | 0.298 | 0.418 | 0.517 | 0.592 | 0.672 | 0.706 |
| 1995 | 0.107 | 0.208 | 0.286 | 0.396 | 0.485 | 0.547 | 0.596 | |
| 1996 | 0.096 | 0.170 | 0.234 | 0.323 | 0.391 | 0.412 | ||
| 1997 | 0.077 | 0.131 | 0.162 | 0.194 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.113 | 0.206 | 0.265 | 0.367 | 0.444 | 0.491 | 0.521 | 0.561 |
| 1991 | 0.114 | 0.212 | 0.275 | 0.373 | 0.445 | 0.487 | 0.516 | 0.548 |
| 1992 | 0.105 | 0.198 | 0.254 | 0.347 | 0.424 | 0.469 | 0.502 | 0.526 |
| 1993 | 0.106 | 0.197 | 0.259 | 0.354 | 0.427 | 0.470 | 0.501 | 0.514 |
| 1994 | 0.095 | 0.187 | 0.251 | 0.347 | 0.422 | 0.469 | 0.493 | 0.497 |
| 1995 | 0.092 | 0.176 | 0.238 | 0.324 | 0.389 | 0.421 | 0.431 | |
| 1996 | 0.083 | 0.143 | 0.190 | 0.249 | 0.288 | 0.296 | ||
| 1997 | 0.064 | 0.105 | 0.126 | 0.144 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.128 | 0.062 | 0.032 | 0.030 | 0.031 | 0.029 | 0.018 |
| 1991 | 0.128 | 0.067 | 0.034 | 0.031 | 0.030 | 0.027 | 0.018 |
| 1992 | 0.120 | 0.062 | 0.030 | 0.029 | 0.030 | 0.026 | 0.018 |
| 1993 | 0.120 | 0.062 | 0.035 | 0.029 | 0.029 | 0.026 | 0.018 |
| 1994 | 0.108 | 0.061 | 0.034 | 0.028 | 0.028 | 0.026 | 0.016 |
| 1995 | 0.107 | 0.057 | 0.033 | 0.026 | 0.025 | 0.020 | 0.009 |
| 1996 | 0.096 | 0.041 | 0.026 | 0.019 | 0.017 | 0.006 | |
| 1997 | 0.077 | 0.029 | 0.012 | 0.006 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
Year |
Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
c |
0.113 | 0.054 | 0.026 | 0.024 | 0.023 | 0.017 | 0.006 |
1991 |
0.114 | 0.056 | 0.027 | 0.024 | 0.022 | 0.015 | 0.007 |
1992 |
0.105 | 0.053 | 0.024 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.016 | 0.007 |
1993 |
0.106 | 0.052 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.006 |
1994 |
0.095 | 0.052 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.005 |
1995 |
0.092 | 0.047 | 0.026 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.010 | 0.002 |
1996 |
0.083 | 0.033 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.010 | 0.002 | |
1997 |
0.064 | 0.022 | 0.008 | 0.003 | |||
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit
of period of observation. |
|||||||
| Year | Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.881 | 0.873 | 0.860 | 0.843 | 0.824 | 0.793 | 0.740 | 0.658 |
| 1991 | 0.893 | 0.871 | 0.853 | 0.834 | 0.813 | 0.783 | 0.733 | 0.656 |
| 1992 | 0.876 | 0.864 | 0.847 | 0.827 | 0.810 | 0.785 | 0.735 | 0.663 |
| 1993 | 0.879 | 0.857 | 0.837 | 0.826 | 0.809 | 0.783 | 0.731 | 0.675 |
| 1994 | 0.879 | 0.861 | 0.842 | 0.830 | 0.816 | 0.791 | 0.734 | 0.704 |
| 1995 | 0.859 | 0.847 | 0.833 | 0.818 | 0.803 | 0.770 | 0.723 | |
| 1996 | 0.870 | 0.839 | 0.811 | 0.769 | 0.736 | 0.719 | ||
| 1997 | 0.826 | 0.805 | 0.780 | 0.739 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 742 | 738 | 631 | 735 | 521 | 426 | 577 | 1,939 | 6,309 | 7,662 |
| 1991 | 736 | 809 | 638 | 946 | 671 | 447 | 638 | 2,465 | 7,350 | 10,146 |
| 1992 | 798 | 720 | 688 | 917 | 618 | 484 | 892 | 2,399 | 7,516 | 11,238 |
| 1993 | 744 | 695 | 617 | 867 | 722 | 592 | 1,090 | 1,791 | 7,118 | 11,935 |
| 1994 | 865 | 750 | 717 | 1,120 | 781 | 821 | 1,337 | 903 | 7,294 | 15,373 |
| 1995 | 822 | 788 | 747 | 1,074 | 760 | 715 | 802 | 5,708 | 13,129 | |
| 1996 | 741 | 767 | 622 | 967 | 582 | 161 | 3,840 | 12,077 | ||
| 1997 | 627 | 621 | 380 | 240 | 1,868 | 9,372 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
| 1990 | 534 | 552 | 492 | 515 | 361 | 255 | 239 | 292 | 3,240 |
| 1991 | 488 | 548 | 460 | 654 | 432 | 255 | 263 | 387 | 3,487 |
| 1992 | 445 | 454 | 518 | 615 | 361 | 266 | 381 | 473 | 3,513 |
| 1993 | 431 | 456 | 407 | 523 | 456 | 320 | 447 | 435 | 3,475 |
| 1994 | 510 | 477 | 488 | 724 | 466 | 454 | 577 | 250 | 3,946 |
| 1995 | 470 | 459 | 480 | 646 | 468 | 421 | 393 | 3,337 | |
| 1996 | 406 | 458 | 366 | 619 | 384 | 88 | 2,321 | ||
| 1997 | 334 | 359 | 222 | 159 | 1,074 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.097 | 0.193 | 0.276 | 0.371 | 0.439 | 0.495 | 0.570 | 0.823 |
| 1991 | 0.073 | 0.152 | 0.215 | 0.308 | 0.375 | 0.419 | 0.481 | 0.724 |
| 1992 | 0.071 | 0.135 | 0.196 | 0.278 | 0.333 | 0.376 | 0.455 | 0.669 |
| 1993 | 0.062 | 0.121 | 0.172 | 0.245 | 0.305 | 0.355 | 0.446 | 0.596 |
| 1994 | 0.056 | 0.105 | 0.152 | 0.225 | 0.275 | 0.329 | 0.416 | 0.474 |
| 1995 | 0.063 | 0.123 | 0.180 | 0.261 | 0.319 | 0.374 | 0.435 | |
| 1996 | 0.061 | 0.125 | 0.176 | 0.256 | 0.305 | 0.318 | ||
| 1997 | 0.067 | 0.133 | 0.174 | 0.199 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
Year |
Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.070 | 0.142 | 0.206 | 0.273 | 0.320 | 0.354 | 0.385 | 0.423 |
1991 |
0.048 | 0.102 | 0.147 | 0.212 | 0.254 | 0.280 | 0.306 | 0.344 |
1992 |
0.040 | 0.080 | 0.126 | 0.181 | 0.213 | 0.237 | 0.271 | 0.313 |
1993 |
0.036 | 0.074 | 0.108 | 0.152 | 0.190 | 0.217 | 0.255 | 0.291 |
1994 |
0.033 | 0.064 | 0.096 | 0.143 | 0.173 | 0.203 | 0.240 | 0.257 |
1995 |
0.036 | 0.071 | 0.107 | 0.157 | 0.192 | 0.224 | 0.254 | |
1996 |
0.034 | 0.072 | 0.102 | 0.153 | 0.185 | 0.192 | ||
1997 |
0.036 | 0.074 | 0.098 | 0.115 | ||||
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit
of period of observation. |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.097 | 0.053 | 0.034 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.017 | 0.012 |
| 1991 | 0.073 | 0.043 | 0.025 | 0.020 | 0.016 | 0.012 | 0.009 |
| 1992 | 0.071 | 0.034 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| 1993 | 0.062 | 0.031 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| 1994 | 0.056 | 0.026 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 0.011 |
| 1995 | 0.063 | 0.032 | 0.022 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.008 |
| 1996 | 0.061 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.067 | 0.036 | 0.016 | 0.005 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.070 | 0.040 | 0.027 | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.005 |
| 1991 | 0.048 | 0.029 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| 1992 | 0.040 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| 1993 | 0.036 | 0.020 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| 1994 | 0.033 | 0.016 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 1995 | 0.036 | 0.019 | 0.014 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.004 |
| 1996 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.002 | |
| 1997 | 0.036 | 0.021 | 0.009 | 0.003 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.720 | 0.734 | 0.748 | 0.735 | 0.729 | 0.714 | 0.675 | 0.514 |
| 1991 | 0.663 | 0.671 | 0.685 | 0.687 | 0.679 | 0.668 | 0.635 | 0.474 |
| 1992 | 0.558 | 0.592 | 0.642 | 0.651 | 0.640 | 0.629 | 0.594 | 0.467 |
| 1993 | 0.579 | 0.616 | 0.629 | 0.622 | 0.624 | 0.612 | 0.571 | 0.488 |
| 1994 | 0.590 | 0.611 | 0.633 | 0.637 | 0.630 | 0.617 | 0.578 | 0.541 |
| 1995 | 0.572 | 0.577 | 0.598 | 0.599 | 0.602 | 0.600 | 0.585 | |
| 1996 | 0.548 | 0.573 | 0.577 | 0.597 | 0.607 | 0.604 | ||
| 1997 | 0.533 | 0.555 | 0.562 | 0.575 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 388 | 389 | 223 | 220 | 183 | 139 | 239 | 465 | 2,246 | 2,454 |
| 1991 | 408 | 493 | 261 | 235 | 221 | 152 | 255 | 390 | 2,415 | 2,707 |
| 1992 | 340 | 396 | 205 | 285 | 229 | 176 | 255 | 406 | 2,292 | 2,742 |
| 1993 | 321 | 414 | 202 | 278 | 199 | 159 | 255 | 320 | 2,148 | 2,736 |
| 1994 | 440 | 474 | 249 | 343 | 232 | 190 | 324 | 138 | 2,390 | 3,364 |
| 1995 | 336 | 398 | 224 | 300 | 249 | 225 | 156 | 1,888 | 3,123 | |
| 1996 | 437 | 433 | 236 | 299 | 196 | 59 | 1,660 | 3,103 | ||
| 1997 | 445 | 379 | 163 | 90 | 1,077 | 3,182 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | Total Reunifs | |
| 1990 | 220 | 227 | 119 | 104 | 87 | 57 | 74 | 89 | 977 |
| 1991 | 242 | 303 | 149 | 118 | 89 | 65 | 83 | 70 | 1,119 |
| 1992 | 192 | 226 | 98 | 138 | 98 | 57 | 72 | 68 | 949 |
| 1993 | 172 | 248 | 133 | 145 | 101 | 54 | 74 | 44 | 971 |
| 1994 | 265 | 262 | 124 | 166 | 103 | 82 | 102 | 35 | 1,139 |
| 1995 | 166 | 205 | 113 | 138 | 123 | 108 | 50 | 903 | |
| 1996 | 227 | 209 | 116 | 150 | 91 | 26 | 819 | ||
| 1997 | 192 | 190 | 80 | 38 | 500 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.158 | 0.317 | 0.407 | 0.497 | 0.572 | 0.628 | 0.726 | 0.915 |
| 1991 | 0.151 | 0.333 | 0.429 | 0.516 | 0.598 | 0.654 | 0.748 | 0.892 |
| 1992 | 0.124 | 0.268 | 0.343 | 0.447 | 0.531 | 0.595 | 0.688 | 0.836 |
| 1993 | 0.117 | 0.269 | 0.342 | 0.444 | 0.517 | 0.575 | 0.668 | 0.785 |
| 1994 | 0.131 | 0.272 | 0.346 | 0.448 | 0.517 | 0.573 | 0.669 | 0.710 |
| 1995 | 0.108 | 0.235 | 0.307 | 0.403 | 0.483 | 0.555 | 0.605 | |
| 1996 | 0.141 | 0.280 | 0.356 | 0.453 | 0.516 | 0.535 | ||
| 1997 | 0.140 | 0.259 | 0.310 | 0.338 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.090 | 0.182 | 0.231 | 0.273 | 0.308 | 0.332 | 0.362 | 0.398 |
| 1991 | 0.089 | 0.201 | 0.256 | 0.300 | 0.333 | 0.357 | 0.388 | 0.413 |
| 1992 | 0.070 | 0.152 | 0.188 | 0.239 | 0.274 | 0.295 | 0.321 | 0.346 |
| 1993 | 0.063 | 0.154 | 0.202 | 0.255 | 0.292 | 0.312 | 0.339 | 0.355 |
| 1994 | 0.079 | 0.157 | 0.194 | 0.243 | 0.273 | 0.298 | 0.328 | 0.339 |
| 1995 | 0.053 | 0.119 | 0.155 | 0.199 | 0.239 | 0.273 | 0.289 | |
| 1996 | 0.073 | 0.141 | 0.178 | 0.226 | 0.256 | 0.264 | ||
| 1997 | 0.060 | 0.120 | 0.145 | 0.157 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.158 | 0.094 | 0.044 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| 1991 | 0.151 | 0.107 | 0.048 | 0.025 | 0.028 | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| 1992 | 0.124 | 0.082 | 0.034 | 0.026 | 0.025 | 0.023 | 0.019 |
| 1993 | 0.117 | 0.086 | 0.034 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.018 |
| 1994 | 0.131 | 0.081 | 0.034 | 0.026 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| 1995 | 0.108 | 0.071 | 0.031 | 0.023 | 0.022 | 0.023 | 0.009 |
| 1996 | 0.141 | 0.081 | 0.035 | 0.025 | 0.019 | 0.007 | |
| 1997 | 0.140 | 0.069 | 0.023 | 0.007 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
Year |
Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
1990 |
0.090 | 0.055 | 0.024 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.007 |
1991 |
0.089 | 0.066 | 0.028 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.007 |
1992 |
0.070 | 0.047 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
1993 |
0.063 | 0.051 | 0.022 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
1994 |
0.079 | 0.045 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.006 |
1995 |
0.053 | 0.037 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.003 |
1996 |
0.073 | 0.039 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.003 | |
1997 |
0.060 | 0.035 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |||
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit
of period of observation. |
|||||||
Year |
Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.567 | 0.575 | 0.566 | 0.549 | 0.540 | 0.528 | 0.499 | 0.435 |
1991 |
0.593 | 0.605 | 0.597 | 0.581 | 0.557 | 0.546 | 0.518 | 0.463 |
1992 |
0.565 | 0.568 | 0.548 | 0.533 | 0.517 | 0.496 | 0.467 | 0.414 |
1993 |
0.536 | 0.571 | 0.590 | 0.574 | 0.565 | 0.542 | 0.507 | 0.452 |
1994 |
0.602 | 0.577 | 0.560 | 0.542 | 0.529 | 0.520 | 0.490 | 0.477 |
1995 |
0.494 | 0.505 | 0.505 | 0.494 | 0.494 | 0.492 | 0.478 | |
1996 |
0.519 | 0.501 | 0.499 | 0.500 | 0.495 | 0.493 | ||
1997 |
0.431 | 0.464 | 0.468 | 0.464 | ||||
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit
of period of observation. |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 566 | 799 | 645 | 840 | 660 | 467 | 734 | 941 | 5,652 | 5,776 |
| 1991 | 686 | 867 | 688 | 878 | 752 | 548 | 793 | 952 | 6,164 | 6,333 |
| 1992 | 664 | 755 | 659 | 924 | 688 | 483 | 732 | 815 | 5,720 | 5,956 |
| 1993 | 738 | 782 | 698 | 930 | 628 | 527 | 944 | 748 | 5,995 | 6,405 |
| 1994 | 802 | 867 | 679 | 1,036 | 813 | 681 | 1,087 | 291 | 6,256 | 7,067 |
| 1995 | 744 | 932 | 790 | 1,055 | 833 | 739 | 515 | 5,608 | 7,074 | |
| 1996 | 854 | 985 | 800 | 1,199 | 697 | 206 | 4,741 | 7,733 | ||
| 1997 | 924 | 1,024 | 699 | 365 | 3,012 | 8,820 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
| 1990 | 326 | 445 | 415 | 606 | 404 | 235 | 258 | 171 | 2,860 |
| 1991 | 393 | 492 | 440 | 596 | 460 | 269 | 211 | 155 | 3,016 |
| 1992 | 342 | 420 | 414 | 626 | 398 | 223 | 208 | 125 | 2,756 |
| 1993 | 404 | 419 | 432 | 599 | 326 | 209 | 268 | 122 | 2,779 |
| 1994 | 434 | 472 | 369 | 635 | 488 | 303 | 284 | 46 | 3,031 |
| 1995 | 415 | 484 | 467 | 635 | 427 | 276 | 144 | 2,848 | |
| 1996 | 395 | 457 | 407 | 627 | 373 | 85 | 2,344 | ||
| 1997 | 315 | 392 | 294 | 144 | 1,145 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.098 | 0.236 | 0.348 | 0.493 | 0.608 | 0.689 | 0.816 | 0.979 |
| 1991 | 0.108 | 0.245 | 0.354 | 0.492 | 0.611 | 0.698 | 0.823 | 0.973 |
| 1992 | 0.111 | 0.238 | 0.349 | 0.504 | 0.620 | 0.701 | 0.824 | 0.960 |
| 1993 | 0.115 | 0.237 | 0.346 | 0.491 | 0.590 | 0.672 | 0.819 | 0.936 |
| 1994 | 0.113 | 0.236 | 0.332 | 0.479 | 0.594 | 0.690 | 0.844 | 0.885 |
| 1995 | 0.105 | 0.237 | 0.349 | 0.498 | 0.615 | 0.720 | 0.793 | |
| 1996 | 0.110 | 0.238 | 0.341 | 0.496 | 0.586 | 0.613 | ||
| 1997 | 0.105 | 0.221 | 0.300 | 0.341 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.056 | 0.133 | 0.205 | 0.310 | 0.380 | 0.421 | 0.466 | 0.495 |
| 1991 | 0.062 | 0.140 | 0.209 | 0.303 | 0.376 | 0.418 | 0.452 | 0.476 |
| 1992 | 0.057 | 0.128 | 0.197 | 0.303 | 0.369 | 0.407 | 0.442 | 0.463 |
| 1993 | 0.063 | 0.128 | 0.196 | 0.289 | 0.340 | 0.373 | 0.415 | 0.434 |
| 1994 | 0.061 | 0.128 | 0.180 | 0.270 | 0.339 | 0.382 | 0.422 | 0.429 |
| 1995 | 0.059 | 0.127 | 0.193 | 0.283 | 0.343 | 0.382 | 0.403 | |
| 1996 | 0.051 | 0.110 | 0.163 | 0.244 | 0.292 | 0.303 | ||
| 1997 | 0.036 | 0.080 | 0.113 | 0.130 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.098 | 0.077 | 0.049 | 0.037 | 0.038 | 0.034 | 0.034 |
| 1991 | 0.108 | 0.077 | 0.048 | 0.036 | 0.039 | 0.037 | 0.035 |
| 1992 | 0.111 | 0.071 | 0.048 | 0.040 | 0.039 | 0.036 | 0.034 |
| 1993 | 0.115 | 0.069 | 0.048 | 0.037 | 0.032 | 0.033 | 0.037 |
| 1994 | 0.113 | 0.069 | 0.042 | 0.037 | 0.037 | 0.040 | 0.041 |
| 1995 | 0.105 | 0.074 | 0.049 | 0.038 | 0.039 | 0.045 | 0.022 |
| 1996 | 0.110 | 0.072 | 0.045 | 0.039 | 0.030 | 0.011 | |
| 1997 | 0.105 | 0.065 | 0.034 | 0.010 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
Year |
Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.056 | 0.043 | 0.031 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.017 | 0.012 |
| 1991 | 0.062 | 0.044 | 0.031 | 0.024 | 0.024 | 0.018 | 0.009 |
| 1992 | 0.057 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.027 | 0.022 | 0.016 | 0.010 |
| 1993 | 0.063 | 0.037 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.011 |
| 1994 | 0.061 | 0.038 | 0.023 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.011 |
| 1995 | 0.059 | 0.038 | 0.029 | 0.023 | 0.020 | 0.017 | 0.006 |
| 1996 | 0.051 | 0.033 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.004 | |
| 1997 | 0.036 | 0.025 | 0.014 | 0.004 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.576 | 0.565 | 0.590 | 0.629 | 0.626 | 0.611 | 0.571 | 0.506 |
| 1991 | 0.573 | 0.570 | 0.591 | 0.616 | 0.615 | 0.600 | 0.549 | 0.489 |
| 1992 | 0.515 | 0.537 | 0.566 | 0.600 | 0.596 | 0.581 | 0.536 | 0.482 |
| 1993 | 0.547 | 0.541 | 0.566 | 0.589 | 0.577 | 0.555 | 0.506 | 0.464 |
| 1994 | 0.541 | 0.543 | 0.543 | 0.564 | 0.571 | 0.554 | 0.500 | 0.484 |
| 1995 | 0.558 | 0.536 | 0.554 | 0.568 | 0.558 | 0.531 | 0.508 | |
| 1996 | 0.463 | 0.463 | 0.477 | 0.491 | 0.498 | 0.494 | ||
| 1997 | 0.341 | 0.363 | 0.378 | 0.380 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 651 | 738 | 393 | 467 | 339 | 197 | 297 | 542 | 3,624 | 3,780 |
| 1991 | 685 | 764 | 507 | 492 | 357 | 247 | 379 | 640 | 4,071 | 4,332 |
| 1992 | 862 | 796 | 455 | 608 | 405 | 290 | 403 | 489 | 4,308 | 4,647 |
| 1993 | 800 | 737 | 536 | 670 | 429 | 300 | 396 | 391 | 4,259 | 4,850 |
| 1994 | 774 | 702 | 517 | 619 | 445 | 319 | 527 | 149 | 4,052 | 5,020 |
| 1995 | 827 | 725 | 524 | 653 | 494 | 330 | 240 | 3,793 | 5,096 | |
| 1996 | 939 | 709 | 536 | 684 | 407 | 81 | 3,356 | 5,708 | ||
| 1997 | 832 | 535 | 343 | 179 | 1,889 | 5,661 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
| 1990 | 414 | 447 | 228 | 244 | 187 | 102 | 115 | 108 | 1,845 |
| 1991 | 446 | 427 | 319 | 273 | 179 | 122 | 158 | 156 | 2,080 |
| 1992 | 558 | 472 | 260 | 334 | 230 | 138 | 177 | 100 | 2,269 |
| 1993 | 546 | 422 | 310 | 406 | 258 | 149 | 159 | 90 | 2,340 |
| 1994 | 482 | 407 | 305 | 373 | 261 | 170 | 170 | 30 | 2,198 |
| 1995 | 538 | 406 | 308 | 382 | 293 | 134 | 66 | 2,127 | |
| 1996 | 577 | 404 | 327 | 331 | 171 | 37 | 1,847 | ||
| 1997 | 373 | 179 | 147 | 67 | 766 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.172 | 0.367 | 0.471 | 0.595 | 0.685 | 0.737 | 0.815 | 0.959 |
| 1991 | 0.158 | 0.334 | 0.452 | 0.565 | 0.648 | 0.705 | 0.792 | 0.940 |
| 1992 | 0.185 | 0.357 | 0.455 | 0.586 | 0.673 | 0.735 | 0.822 | 0.927 |
| 1993 | 0.165 | 0.317 | 0.427 | 0.566 | 0.654 | 0.716 | 0.798 | 0.878 |
| 1994 | 0.154 | 0.294 | 0.397 | 0.520 | 0.609 | 0.673 | 0.777 | 0.807 |
| 1995 | 0.162 | 0.305 | 0.407 | 0.536 | 0.632 | 0.697 | 0.744 | |
| 1996 | 0.165 | 0.289 | 0.383 | 0.502 | 0.574 | 0.588 | ||
| 1997 | 0.147 | 0.241 | 0.302 | 0.334 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
Year |
Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.110 | 0.228 | 0.288 | 0.353 | 0.402 | 0.429 | 0.460 | 0.488 |
1991 |
0.103 | 0.202 | 0.275 | 0.338 | 0.380 | 0.408 | 0.444 | 0.480 |
1992 |
0.120 | 0.222 | 0.278 | 0.349 | 0.399 | 0.429 | 0.467 | 0.488 |
1993 |
0.113 | 0.200 | 0.264 | 0.347 | 0.400 | 0.431 | 0.464 | 0.482 |
1994 |
0.096 | 0.177 | 0.238 | 0.312 | 0.364 | 0.398 | 0.432 | 0.438 |
1995 |
0.106 | 0.185 | 0.246 | 0.321 | 0.378 | 0.404 | 0.417 | |
1996 |
0.101 | 0.172 | 0.229 | 0.287 | 0.317 | 0.324 | ||
1997 |
0.066 | 0.098 | 0.123 | 0.135 | ||||
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit
of period of observation. |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.172 | 0.118 | 0.055 | 0.039 | 0.037 | 0.028 | 0.025 |
| 1991 | 0.158 | 0.105 | 0.059 | 0.035 | 0.032 | 0.027 | 0.025 |
| 1992 | 0.185 | 0.105 | 0.051 | 0.040 | 0.035 | 0.032 | 0.027 |
| 1993 | 0.165 | 0.091 | 0.054 | 0.040 | 0.034 | 0.030 | 0.024 |
| 1994 | 0.154 | 0.083 | 0.049 | 0.034 | 0.031 | 0.027 | 0.027 |
| 1995 | 0.162 | 0.085 | 0.049 | 0.036 | 0.035 | 0.029 | 0.013 |
| 1996 | 0.165 | 0.074 | 0.044 | 0.032 | 0.024 | 0.006 | |
| 1997 | 0.147 | 0.055 | 0.027 | 0.008 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.110 | 0.071 | 0.032 | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1991 | 0.103 | 0.059 | 0.037 | 0.019 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.010 |
| 1992 | 0.120 | 0.062 | 0.029 | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.012 |
| 1993 | 0.113 | 0.052 | 0.031 | 0.024 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.010 |
| 1994 | 0.096 | 0.048 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.009 |
| 1995 | 0.106 | 0.048 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.021 | 0.012 | 0.004 |
| 1996 | 0.101 | 0.042 | 0.027 | 0.016 | 0.010 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.066 | 0.019 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially censored
by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.636 | 0.620 | 0.611 | 0.593 | 0.587 | 0.582 | 0.564 | 0.509 |
| 1991 | 0.651 | 0.602 | 0.609 | 0.598 | 0.586 | 0.579 | 0.561 | 0.511 |
| 1992 | 0.647 | 0.621 | 0.611 | 0.597 | 0.593 | 0.583 | 0.568 | 0.527 |
| 1993 | 0.683 | 0.630 | 0.616 | 0.614 | 0.612 | 0.602 | 0.582 | 0.549 |
| 1994 | 0.623 | 0.602 | 0.599 | 0.600 | 0.598 | 0.592 | 0.555 | 0.542 |
| 1995 | 0.651 | 0.608 | 0.603 | 0.599 | 0.598 | 0.580 | 0.561 | |
| 1996 | 0.614 | 0.595 | 0.599 | 0.571 | 0.553 | 0.550 | ||
| 1997 | 0.448 | 0.404 | 0.409 | 0.406 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 293 | 190 | 159 | 123 | 71 | 43 | 80 | 98 | 1,057 | 1,068 |
| 1991 | 299 | 190 | 124 | 141 | 94 | 72 | 84 | 130 | 1,134 | 1,171 |
| 1992 | 293 | 181 | 143 | 176 | 99 | 71 | 108 | 131 | 1,202 | 1,247 |
| 1993 | 301 | 183 | 183 | 156 | 116 | 68 | 104 | 65 | 1,176 | 1,249 |
| 1994 | 274 | 199 | 132 | 165 | 88 | 61 | 87 | 39 | 1,045 | 1,154 |
| 1995 | 281 | 206 | 145 | 183 | 119 | 79 | 38 | 1,051 | 1,288 | |
| 1996 | 283 | 171 | 119 | 168 | 80 | 17 | 838 | 1,256 | ||
| 1997 | 290 | 126 | 71 | 54 | 541 | 1,230 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
| 1990 | 209 | 115 | 109 | 85 | 52 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 624 |
| 1991 | 226 | 123 | 77 | 96 | 59 | 31 | 23 | 13 | 648 |
| 1992 | 217 | 136 | 91 | 111 | 67 | 37 | 35 | 15 | 709 |
| 1993 | 220 | 130 | 137 | 108 | 73 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 723 |
| 1994 | 216 | 146 | 89 | 103 | 49 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 638 |
| 1995 | 219 | 135 | 97 | 114 | 68 | 45 | 17 | 695 | |
| 1996 | 219 | 106 | 62 | 102 | 28 | 6 | 523 | ||
| 1997 | 223 | 89 | 48 | 28 | 388 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.274 | 0.452 | 0.601 | 0.716 | 0.783 | 0.823 | 0.898 | 0.990 |
| 1991 | 0.255 | 0.418 | 0.523 | 0.644 | 0.724 | 0.786 | 0.857 | 0.968 |
| 1992 | 0.235 | 0.380 | 0.495 | 0.636 | 0.715 | 0.772 | 0.859 | 0.964 |
| 1993 | 0.241 | 0.388 | 0.534 | 0.659 | 0.752 | 0.806 | 0.890 | 0.942 |
| 1994 | 0.237 | 0.410 | 0.524 | 0.667 | 0.744 | 0.796 | 0.872 | 0.906 |
| 1995 | 0.218 | 0.378 | 0.491 | 0.633 | 0.725 | 0.786 | 0.816 | |
| 1996 | 0.225 | 0.361 | 0.456 | 0.590 | 0.654 | 0.667 | ||
| 1997 | 0.236 | 0.338 | 0.396 | 0.440 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.196 | 0.303 | 0.405 | 0.485 | 0.534 | 0.557 | 0.578 | 0.584 |
| 1991 | 0.193 | 0.298 | 0.364 | 0.446 | 0.496 | 0.523 | 0.542 | 0.553 |
| 1992 | 0.174 | 0.283 | 0.356 | 0.445 | 0.499 | 0.528 | 0.557 | 0.569 |
| 1993 | 0.176 | 0.280 | 0.390 | 0.476 | 0.535 | 0.561 | 0.576 | 0.579 |
| 1994 | 0.187 | 0.314 | 0.391 | 0.480 | 0.523 | 0.536 | 0.549 | 0.553 |
| 1995 | 0.170 | 0.275 | 0.350 | 0.439 | 0.491 | 0.526 | 0.540 | |
| 1996 | 0.174 | 0.259 | 0.308 | 0.389 | 0.412 | 0.416 | ||
| 1997 | 0.181 | 0.254 | 0.293 | 0.315 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.274 | 0.123 | 0.091 | 0.048 | 0.039 | 0.031 | 0.035 |
| 1991 | 0.255 | 0.109 | 0.061 | 0.042 | 0.038 | 0.037 | 0.028 |
| 1992 | 0.235 | 0.095 | 0.062 | 0.047 | 0.036 | 0.033 | 0.032 |
| 1993 | 0.241 | 0.097 | 0.080 | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.037 | 0.036 |
| 1994 | 0.237 | 0.113 | 0.065 | 0.050 | 0.038 | 0.034 | 0.031 |
| 1995 | 0.218 | 0.102 | 0.060 | 0.046 | 0.042 | 0.037 | 0.012 |
| 1996 | 0.225 | 0.088 | 0.049 | 0.041 | 0.026 | 0.007 | |
| 1997 | 0.236 | 0.067 | 0.029 | 0.012 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.196 | 0.074 | 0.062 | 0.033 | 0.029 | 0.018 | 0.010 |
| 1991 | 0.193 | 0.071 | 0.038 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.016 | 0.008 |
| 1992 | 0.174 | 0.071 | 0.039 | 0.029 | 0.025 | 0.017 | 0.010 |
| 1993 | 0.176 | 0.069 | 0.060 | 0.031 | 0.029 | 0.018 | 0.006 |
| 1994 | 0.187 | 0.083 | 0.044 | 0.031 | 0.021 | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| 1995 | 0.170 | 0.067 | 0.040 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.005 |
| 1996 | 0.174 | 0.054 | 0.026 | 0.025 | 0.009 | 0.002 | |
| 1997 | 0.181 | 0.047 | 0.020 | 0.006 | |||
Year |
Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.713 | 0.671 | 0.674 | 0.677 | 0.682 | 0.677 | 0.643 | 0.590 |
1991 |
0.756 | 0.714 | 0.695 | 0.692 | 0.685 | 0.665 | 0.632 | 0.571 |
1992 |
0.741 | 0.745 | 0.720 | 0.700 | 0.697 | 0.684 | 0.648 | 0.590 |
1993 |
0.731 | 0.723 | 0.730 | 0.723 | 0.711 | 0.696 | 0.647 | 0.615 |
1994 |
0.788 | 0.765 | 0.745 | 0.719 | 0.703 | 0.672 | 0.630 | 0.611 |
1995 |
0.779 | 0.727 | 0.714 | 0.693 | 0.678 | 0.669 | 0.661 | |
1996 |
0.774 | 0.716 | 0.675 | 0.660 | 0.630 | 0.624 | ||
1997 |
0.769 | 0.750 | 0.739 | 0.717 | ||||
Note: Observations in italic are partially censored by time limit
of period of observation. |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 2,438 | 2,210 | 1,802 | 2,132 | 1,677 | 1,311 | 2,004 | 5,279 | 18,853 | 20,586 |
| 1991 | 2,491 | 2,122 | 1,672 | 2,089 | 1,687 | 1,224 | 1,927 | 4,322 | 17,534 | 19,549 |
| 1992 | 2,339 | 1,968 | 1,581 | 2,298 | 1,672 | 1,186 | 1,789 | 3,118 | 15,951 | 18,304 |
| 1993 | 2,398 | 2,005 | 1,724 | 2,284 | 1,723 | 1,269 | 1,788 | 2,045 | 15,236 | 18,410 |
| 1994 | 2,468 | 1,934 | 1,618 | 2,380 | 1,726 | 1,124 | 1,742 | 718 | 13,710 | 17,909 |
| 1995 | 2,332 | 1,904 | 1,504 | 2,241 | 1,598 | 1,006 | 892 | 11,477 | 16,448 | |
| 1996 | 3,016 | 2,176 | 1,876 | 2,726 | 1,447 | 298 | 11,539 | 20,179 | ||
| 1997 | 3,026 | 1,954 | 1,261 | 612 | 6,853 | 20,741 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | Total Reunifs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | ||
| 1990 | 1,573 | 1,327 | 1,140 | 1,388 | 1,152 | 853 | 1,105 | 1,437 | 9,975 |
| 1991 | 1,454 | 1,175 | 946 | 1,288 | 1,166 | 792 | 988 | 1,130 | 8,939 |
| 1992 | 1,332 | 1,060 | 808 | 1,461 | 1,093 | 732 | 864 | 755 | 8,105 |
| 1993 | 1,366 | 1,001 | 906 | 1,354 | 1,072 | 766 | 879 | 514 | 7,858 |
| 1994 | 1,342 | 911 | 753 | 1,382 | 1,109 | 599 | 777 | 199 | 7,072 |
| 1995 | 1,162 | 899 | 712 | 1,307 | 983 | 553 | 431 | 6,047 | |
| 1996 | 1,561 | 911 | 965 | 1,651 | 923 | 168 | 6,179 | ||
| 1997 | 1,581 | 896 | 647 | 323 | 3,447 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.118 | 0.226 | 0.313 | 0.417 | 0.498 | 0.562 | 0.659 | 0.916 |
| 1991 | 0.127 | 0.236 | 0.321 | 0.428 | 0.515 | 0.577 | 0.676 | 0.897 |
| 1992 | 0.128 | 0.235 | 0.322 | 0.447 | 0.539 | 0.603 | 0.701 | 0.871 |
| 1993 | 0.130 | 0.239 | 0.333 | 0.457 | 0.550 | 0.619 | 0.717 | 0.828 |
| 1994 | 0.138 | 0.246 | 0.336 | 0.469 | 0.565 | 0.628 | 0.725 | 0.766 |
| 1995 | 0.142 | 0.258 | 0.349 | 0.485 | 0.582 | 0.644 | 0.698 | |
| 1996 | 0.149 | 0.257 | 0.350 | 0.485 | 0.557 | 0.572 | ||
| 1997 | 0.146 | 0.240 | 0.301 | 0.330 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.076 | 0.141 | 0.196 | 0.264 | 0.320 | 0.361 | 0.415 | 0.485 |
| 1991 | 0.074 | 0.134 | 0.183 | 0.249 | 0.308 | 0.349 | 0.399 | 0.457 |
| 1992 | 0.073 | 0.131 | 0.175 | 0.255 | 0.314 | 0.354 | 0.402 | 0.443 |
| 1993 | 0.074 | 0.129 | 0.178 | 0.251 | 0.310 | 0.351 | 0.399 | 0.427 |
| 1994 | 0.075 | 0.126 | 0.168 | 0.245 | 0.307 | 0.340 | 0.384 | 0.395 |
| 1995 | 0.071 | 0.125 | 0.169 | 0.248 | 0.308 | 0.341 | 0.368 | |
| 1996 | 0.077 | 0.123 | 0.170 | 0.252 | 0.298 | 0.306 | ||
| 1997 | 0.076 | 0.119 | 0.151 | 0.166 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.118 | 0.061 | 0.038 | 0.025 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.019 |
| 1991 | 0.127 | 0.062 | 0.037 | 0.026 | 0.025 | 0.022 | 0.019 |
| 1992 | 0.128 | 0.062 | 0.038 | 0.031 | 0.028 | 0.023 | 0.021 |
| 1993 | 0.130 | 0.063 | 0.041 | 0.031 | 0.029 | 0.026 | 0.021 |
| 1994 | 0.138 | 0.063 | 0.040 | 0.033 | 0.030 | 0.024 | 0.022 |
| 1995 | 0.142 | 0.067 | 0.041 | 0.035 | 0.031 | 0.024 | 0.013 |
| 1996 | 0.149 | 0.063 | 0.042 | 0.035 | 0.023 | 0.006 | |
| 1997 | 0.146 | 0.055 | 0.027 | 0.007 | |||
| Year | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.076 | 0.037 | 0.024 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1991 | 0.074 | 0.034 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1992 | 0.073 | 0.033 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1993 | 0.074 | 0.031 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.018 | 0.015 | 0.010 |
| 1994 | 0.075 | 0.029 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.010 |
| 1995 | 0.071 | 0.032 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.006 |
| 1996 | 0.077 | 0.027 | 0.021 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.076 | 0.025 | 0.014 | 0.004 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
Year |
Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
1990 |
0.645 | 0.624 | 0.626 | 0.632 | 0.641 | 0.642 | 0.629 | 0.529 |
1991 |
0.584 | 0.570 | 0.569 | 0.581 | 0.599 | 0.604 | 0.591 | 0.510 |
1992 |
0.569 | 0.555 | 0.543 | 0.569 | 0.584 | 0.587 | 0.573 | 0.508 |
1993 |
0.570 | 0.538 | 0.534 | 0.550 | 0.562 | 0.567 | 0.557 | 0.516 |
1994 |
0.544 | 0.512 | 0.499 | 0.522 | 0.543 | 0.542 | 0.529 | 0.516 |
1995 |
0.498 | 0.487 | 0.483 | 0.511 | 0.529 | 0.531 | 0.527 | |
1996 |
0.518 | 0.476 | 0.486 | 0.520 | 0.535 | 0.535 | ||
1997 |
0.522 | 0.497 | 0.501 | 0.503 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Number of Exits in Interval | Total Exits | Total Entries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | |||
| 1990 | 636 | 623 | 633 | 692 | 353 | 250 | 335 | 602 | 4,124 | 4,282 |
| 1991 | 709 | 675 | 676 | 783 | 482 | 241 | 461 | 488 | 4,515 | 4,753 |
| 1992 | 754 | 708 | 731 | 886 | 523 | 317 | 321 | 355 | 4,595 | 4,938 |
| 1993 | 945 | 893 | 887 | 977 | 486 | 309 | 332 | 270 | 5,099 | 5,703 |
| 1994 | 929 | 958 | 940 | 1147 | 569 | 301 | 342 | 142 | 5,328 | 6,373 |
| 1995 | 934 | 897 | 889 | 1053 | 487 | 283 | 192 | 4,735 | 5,989 | |
| 1996 | 881 | 921 | 874 | 1012 | 432 | 84 | 4,204 | 6,376 | ||
| 1997 | 821 | 744 | 513 | 234 | 2,312 | 5,534 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||||
| Year | Number of Reunifications in Interval | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | 36+ | Total Reunifs | |
| 1990 | 461 | 433 | 450 | 501 | 247 | 157 | 178 | 261 | 2,688 |
| 1991 | 506 | 444 | 478 | 560 | 360 | 146 | 318 | 164 | 2,976 |
| 1992 | 517 | 435 | 554 | 620 | 370 | 201 | 193 | 97 | 2,987 |
| 1993 | 639 | 604 | 667 | 758 | 363 | 199 | 158 | 65 | 3,453 |
| 1994 | 678 | 662 | 694 | 904 | 405 | 175 | 144 | 26 | 3,688 |
| 1995 | 616 | 606 | 628 | 731 | 332 | 159 | 81 | 3,153 | |
| 1996 | 552 | 550 | 577 | 671 | 260 | 41 | 2,651 | ||
| 1997 | 537 | 432 | 348 | 145 | 1,462 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Exiting By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.149 | 0.294 | 0.442 | 0.603 | 0.686 | 0.744 | 0.823 | 0.963 |
| 1991 | 0.149 | 0.291 | 0.433 | 0.598 | 0.700 | 0.750 | 0.847 | 0.950 |
| 1992 | 0.153 | 0.296 | 0.444 | 0.624 | 0.729 | 0.794 | 0.859 | 0.931 |
| 1993 | 0.166 | 0.322 | 0.478 | 0.649 | 0.734 | 0.789 | 0.847 | 0.894 |
| 1994 | 0.146 | 0.296 | 0.444 | 0.624 | 0.713 | 0.760 | 0.814 | 0.836 |
| 1995 | 0.156 | 0.306 | 0.454 | 0.630 | 0.711 | 0.759 | 0.791 | |
| 1996 | 0.138 | 0.283 | 0.420 | 0.578 | 0.646 | 0.659 | ||
| 1997 | 0.148 | 0.283 | 0.375 | 0.418 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Cumulative Proportion of Entrants Reunifying By Month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.108 | 0.209 | 0.314 | 0.431 | 0.489 | 0.525 | 0.567 | 0.628 |
| 1991 | 0.106 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 0.418 | 0.494 | 0.525 | 0.592 | 0.626 |
| 1992 | 0.105 | 0.193 | 0.305 | 0.431 | 0.505 | 0.546 | 0.585 | 0.605 |
| 1993 | 0.112 | 0.218 | 0.335 | 0.468 | 0.531 | 0.566 | 0.594 | 0.605 |
| 1994 | 0.106 | 0.210 | 0.319 | 0.461 | 0.525 | 0.552 | 0.575 | 0.579 |
| 1995 | 0.103 | 0.204 | 0.309 | 0.431 | 0.486 | 0.513 | 0.526 | |
| 1996 | 0.087 | 0.173 | 0.263 | 0.369 | 0.409 | 0.416 | ||
| 1997 | 0.097 | 0.175 | 0.238 | 0.264 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Exit Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.149 | 0.085 | 0.070 | 0.048 | 0.035 | 0.031 | 0.025 |
| 1991 | 0.149 | 0.083 | 0.067 | 0.048 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.032 |
| 1992 | 0.153 | 0.085 | 0.070 | 0.054 | 0.047 | 0.040 | 0.026 |
| 1993 | 0.166 | 0.094 | 0.076 | 0.055 | 0.040 | 0.034 | 0.023 |
| 1994 | 0.146 | 0.088 | 0.070 | 0.054 | 0.040 | 0.027 | 0.019 |
| 1995 | 0.156 | 0.089 | 0.071 | 0.054 | 0.037 | 0.027 | 0.011 |
| 1996 | 0.138 | 0.084 | 0.064 | 0.046 | 0.027 | 0.006 | |
| 1997 | 0.148 | 0.079 | 0.043 | 0.011 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 | |
| 1990 | 0.108 | 0.059 | 0.050 | 0.035 | 0.024 | 0.019 | 0.014 |
| 1991 | 0.106 | 0.055 | 0.047 | 0.035 | 0.031 | 0.017 | 0.022 |
| 1992 | 0.105 | 0.052 | 0.053 | 0.038 | 0.033 | 0.025 | 0.016 |
| 1993 | 0.112 | 0.063 | 0.058 | 0.042 | 0.030 | 0.022 | 0.011 |
| 1994 | 0.106 | 0.061 | 0.052 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.016 | 0.008 |
| 1995 | 0.103 | 0.060 | 0.050 | 0.037 | 0.025 | 0.015 | 0.005 |
| 1996 | 0.087 | 0.050 | 0.042 | 0.030 | 0.016 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.097 | 0.046 | 0.029 | 0.007 | |||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
|||||||
| Year | Reunifications as Proportion of Exits (Cumulative) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | <3 | <6 | <12 | <18 | <24 | <36 | 36+ | |
| 1990 | 0.725 | 0.710 | 0.710 | 0.714 | 0.712 | 0.706 | 0.689 | 0.652 |
| 1991 | 0.714 | 0.686 | 0.693 | 0.699 | 0.706 | 0.699 | 0.698 | 0.659 |
| 1992 | 0.686 | 0.651 | 0.687 | 0.690 | 0.693 | 0.688 | 0.682 | 0.650 |
| 1993 | 0.676 | 0.676 | 0.701 | 0.721 | 0.724 | 0.718 | 0.702 | 0.677 |
| 1994 | 0.730 | 0.710 | 0.719 | 0.739 | 0.736 | 0.726 | 0.706 | 0.692 |
| 1995 | 0.660 | 0.667 | 0.680 | 0.684 | 0.684 | 0.676 | 0.666 | |
| 1996 | 0.627 | 0.612 | 0.627 | 0.637 | 0.633 | 0.631 | ||
| 1997 | 0.654 | 0.619 | 0.634 | 0.632 | ||||
| Note: Observations in italic are partially
censored by time limit of period of observation. Observations in blank are fully censored (unobservable). |
||||||||
| All 9 States | Average Monthly Reunification Rate During Interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.093 | 0.047 | 0.028 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.015 | 0.008 |
| 1991 | 0.090 | 0.046 | 0.026 | 0.020 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.008 |
| 1992 | 0.085 | 0.043 | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.008 |
| 1993 | 0.085 | 0.042 | 0.026 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.007 |
| 1994 | 0.079 | 0.040 | 0.024 | 0.020 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.006 |
| 1995 | 0.078 | 0.040 | 0.024 | 0.019 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| 1996 | 0.075 | 0.032 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.063 | 0.025 | 0.011 | 0.004 | |||
| AL | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.090 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.004 |
| 1991 | 0.088 | 0.043 | 0.027 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| 1992 | 0.092 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| 1993 | 0.076 | 0.042 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| 1994 | 0.055 | 0.039 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| 1995 | 0.086 | 0.044 | 0.019 | 0.012 | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| 1996 | 0.053 | 0.028 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.005 | 0.001 | |
| 1997 | 0.053 | 0.027 | 0.010 | 0.002 | |||
| CA | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.113 | 0.054 | 0.026 | 0.024 | 0.023 | 0.017 | 0.006 |
| 1991 | 0.114 | 0.056 | 0.027 | 0.024 | 0.022 | 0.015 | 0.007 |
| 1992 | 0.105 | 0.053 | 0.024 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.016 | 0.007 |
| 1993 | 0.106 | 0.052 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.006 |
| 1994 | 0.095 | 0.052 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.005 |
| 1995 | 0.092 | 0.047 | 0.026 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.010 | 0.002 |
| 1996 | 0.083 | 0.033 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.010 | 0.002 | |
| 1997 | 0.064 | 0.022 | 0.008 | 0.003 | |||
| IL | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.070 | 0.040 | 0.027 | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.005 |
| 1991 | 0.048 | 0.029 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| 1992 | 0.040 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| 1993 | 0.036 | 0.020 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| 1994 | 0.033 | 0.016 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 1995 | 0.036 | 0.019 | 0.014 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.004 |
| 1996 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.002 | |
| 1997 | 0.036 | 0.021 | 0.009 | 0.003 | |||
| MD | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.090 | 0.055 | 0.024 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.007 |
| 1991 | 0.089 | 0.066 | 0.028 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.007 |
| 1992 | 0.070 | 0.047 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 1993 | 0.063 | 0.051 | 0.022 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 1994 | 0.079 | 0.045 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| 1995 | 0.053 | 0.037 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| 1996 | 0.073 | 0.039 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.060 | 0.035 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |||
| MI | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.056 | 0.043 | 0.031 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.017 | 0.012 |
| 1991 | 0.062 | 0.044 | 0.031 | 0.024 | 0.024 | 0.018 | 0.009 |
| 1992 | 0.057 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.027 | 0.022 | 0.016 | 0.010 |
| 1993 | 0.063 | 0.037 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.011 |
| 1994 | 0.061 | 0.038 | 0.023 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.011 |
| 1995 | 0.059 | 0.038 | 0.029 | 0.023 | 0.020 | 0.017 | 0.006 |
| 1996 | 0.051 | 0.033 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.004 | |
| 1997 | 0.036 | 0.025 | 0.014 | 0.004 | |||
| MO | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.110 | 0.071 | 0.032 | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1991 | 0.103 | 0.059 | 0.037 | 0.019 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.010 |
| 1992 | 0.120 | 0.062 | 0.029 | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.012 |
| 1993 | 0.113 | 0.052 | 0.031 | 0.024 | 0.020 | 0.015 | 0.010 |
| 1994 | 0.096 | 0.048 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.009 |
| 1995 | 0.106 | 0.048 | 0.029 | 0.021 | 0.021 | 0.012 | 0.004 |
| 1996 | 0.101 | 0.042 | 0.027 | 0.016 | 0.010 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.066 | 0.019 | 0.011 | 0.003 | |||
| NM | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.196 | 0.074 | 0.062 | 0.033 | 0.029 | 0.018 | 0.010 |
| 1991 | 0.193 | 0.071 | 0.038 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.016 | 0.008 |
| 1992 | 0.174 | 0.071 | 0.039 | 0.029 | 0.025 | 0.017 | 0.010 |
| 1993 | 0.176 | 0.069 | 0.060 | 0.031 | 0.029 | 0.018 | 0.006 |
| 1994 | 0.187 | 0.083 | 0.044 | 0.031 | 0.021 | 0.008 | 0.006 |
| 1995 | 0.170 | 0.067 | 0.040 | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.005 |
| 1996 | 0.174 | 0.054 | 0.026 | 0.025 | 0.009 | 0.002 | |
| 1997 | 0.181 | 0.047 | 0.020 | 0.006 | |||
| NY | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.076 | 0.037 | 0.024 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1991 | 0.074 | 0.034 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1992 | 0.073 | 0.033 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| 1993 | 0.074 | 0.031 | 0.022 | 0.018 | 0.018 | 0.015 | 0.010 |
| 1994 | 0.075 | 0.029 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.010 |
| 1995 | 0.071 | 0.032 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.006 |
| 1996 | 0.077 | 0.027 | 0.021 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.076 | 0.025 | 0.014 | 0.004 | |||
| WI | Average Monthly Reunification Rate during interval | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 0 < 1 | 1 < 3 | 3 < 6 | 6 <12 | 12<18 | 18<24 | 25<36 |
| 1990 | 0.108 | 0.059 | 0.050 | 0.035 | 0.024 | 0.019 | 0.014 |
| 1991 | 0.106 | 0.055 | 0.047 | 0.035 | 0.031 | 0.017 | 0.022 |
| 1992 | 0.105 | 0.052 | 0.053 | 0.038 | 0.033 | 0.025 | 0.016 |
| 1993 | 0.112 | 0.063 | 0.058 | 0.042 | 0.030 | 0.022 | 0.011 |
| 1994 | 0.106 | 0.061 | 0.052 | 0.042 | 0.028 | 0.016 | 0.008 |
| 1995 | 0.103 | 0.060 | 0.050 | 0.037 | 0.025 | 0.015 | 0.005 |
| 1996 | 0.087 | 0.050 | 0.042 | 0.030 | 0.016 | 0.003 | |
| 1997 | 0.097 | 0.046 | 0.029 | 0.007 | |||
These tracking tables each contain seven panels, all organized in the same manner. The rows are defined by the year of entry to the foster care spell, and thus represent entry cohorts. The columns are defined by the elapsed duration of spells experienced by children in these annual entry groups, and thus represent intervals of time spent in care. The cell contents contain exit (or reunification) statistics, such as the count of events that occurred within the given duration interval, the cumulative proportion of entrants that had experienced exits by the end of this duration interval, or the average rate of exits for children during this duration interval. This format encourages comparison of the exit experiences of annual entry cohorts, and thus supports examination of trends in the timing and distribution of exits from foster care.
The lightly shaded cells are partially censored, meaning that while the contents reported in them were observed, some possible events that might eventually be included in the cell were unobservable within the timeframe of the current data. This means that when fully observed data are available, these numbers may become larger (they will never become smaller). The darkly shaded cells are fully censored, meaning that none of these events could be observed with this source data.
Using Table IIB.1 as an example, we will describe the contents of each panel, which are labeled as A through G. This table contains pooled information from all nine states combined.
Panels A and B present the counts of exits and of reunifications that were observed for an annual entry cohort within the given interval of duration. For example, in Panel A we can see that 78,580 foster care spells began during 1992. Of these, 6,685 resulted in some exit from care during months 3, 4 or 5 of the spell. In the same cell position in Panel B, we can see that 4,349 of these exits were achieved by family reunification. These two panels contain the raw data that are used to compute each of the remaining panels-- they are difficult to use or interpret in this form.
Panels C and D rearrange these counts in the form of cumulative proportions, expressing for each entry cohort the proportion of spells that have ended (Panel C), or been reunified (Panel D) by the end of the duration interval. For example, in Panel D, we can see that 46 percent (.461) of the 1990 entry cohort was reunified from foster care within 36 months of entry to care. Four rows below, we can see that 42 percent (.416) of the 1995 entry cohort was reunified by 18 months.
Panels E and F present the average monthly exit and reunification rates during each interval. Thus, for 1994 entrants, 11.5 percent (.115) exited from care before the end of the first month, while for those who remained in care at three months, an average of only 2.9 percent (.029) of the children exited per month for the next three months.
Panel G presents the proportion of all exits that have occurred by the end of each duration interval that were achieved by family reunification. Thus for the 1990 entry cohort, 70.3 percent (.703) of the children who exited during their first year in care did so by reunification. For the 1996 entrants, the percentage of first -- year exits that were by reunification had decreased to 60.9 percent (.609).
Any cell in Panels C through G should be directly comparable to other cells in the same column (same measure from another entry cohort), unless one is censored. This is how we look at trends over time. Similarly, any cell in Panels C through G should be directly comparable to the corresponding cell in the same panel for another state. This is how we compare different foster care populations.
Several predominant trends can be observed across the eight annual cohorts:
For all states combined, the time trend observed between 1990 and 1996 was a decrease in exit rates and a sharper decrease in reunification rates. While this general pattern is reflected across the individual state tables, there is substantial variation among the individual states in the timing and magnitude of these changes.
A final sheet is presented after the state tables that summarizes the nine-state and single state results. It is a display of the "average monthly reunification rate" (Panel G), from each of the preceding sheets on a single page.
Figure C is a graphic representing duration-specific reunification rates for each state. These rates were obtained by averaging the separate 1990-1996 entry rates from each Panel E. The pattern of reunification rates decreasing over the duration of spells in foster care is apparent in all nine states. However the magnitudes and the timing of changes in these duration specific rates varies widely. Although all states have their highest reunification rate during the first month of care, the actual Month I rate varies from .181 in New Mexico to .042 in Illinois. In Maryland, New Mexico, and Alabama the rates drop very quickly during the first year, while in Wisconsin and Michigan they drop much less rapidly.
Figure C.
Likelihood of Reunification from Foster Care Average Monthly Rates by Time
Spent in Care, Nine States
Table IIB.3 provides a different vantage of this pattern of change by comparing the exit experiences of two entry cohorts (1990 and 1994) in each state.
The first and second panels present descriptive statistics for each of the two entry cohorts. Note that the exit proportions here are computed as a share of all entrants in the cohort (in contrast to Table IIA.I where they were presented as a proportion of all exits). The third panel looks at the proportional shift that occurred in each of these measures between 1990 and 1994. The intent is to identify changes that occurred during the four years that separate these two cohorts, and interpret them as potential indicators of trends. The final panel lists arithmetic changes between 1990 and 1994.(7)
On the third panel (proportional changes, 1990-1994), we see first that the number of entries to foster care spells grew by a total of 23 percent during this four year period. Rapid growth in entries was observed in Illinois (101%), Maryland, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In contrast, Alabama and New York showed a decrease in entries during these four years. A quick comparison between the change in entries, the incidence rate of entry (from panels 1 and 2), and the reunification levels (as observed in the previous section) suggests that there is no evidence of a direct link between these three characteristics of state child welfare systems.
The third panel also contains rows presenting changes in the proportion of entrants that exited within three years ¾ first for all exits and then detailed separately as reunification, adoption, or relative exits. For all states combined, the proportion of entrants that exited care within three years decreased by 5 percent between 1990 and 1994. During the same time, reunification exits decreased by 10 percent, adoption exits by 4 percent and exits to relatives by 13 percent. In eight of the nine states described, we observe decreases in both the proportion of entrants who were reunified and the proportion of exits that were achieved through reunification. The sole exception, Wisconsin, showed a 1 percent increase in the proportion of entrants reunified, and a 2 percent increase in the proportion of exits that were made by reunification.
| State | Pooled Total | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | CA | IL | MD | MI | MO | NM | NY | WI | ||
1990 Entrants |
||||||||||
| N entrants to Foster Care | 2,004 | 26,550 | 7,662 | 2,454 | 5,776 | 3,780 | 1,068 | 20,586 | 4,282 | 74,162 |
| Incidence Rate of Entry | 1.86 | 2.99 | 2.43 | 1.91 | 2.28 | 2.71 | 2.13 | 4.53 | 3.19 | 3.00 |
| Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| Prop. by Reunification | 0.28 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| Prop. by Adoption | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Prop. to Relatives | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Prop Reunification | Exit (proportion of exits that are by reunification) | 0.32 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
1994 Entrants |
||||||||||
| N entrants to Foster Care | 1,713 | 33,084 | 15,373 | 3,364 | 7,067 | 5,020 | 1,154 | 17,909 | 6,373 | 91,057 |
| Incidence Rate of Entry | 1.59 | 3.73 | 4.87 | 2.62 | 2.79 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 3.94 | 4.75 | 3.69 |
| Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| Prop. by Reunification | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| Prop. by Adoption | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Prop. to Relatives | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Prop Reunification | Exit | 0.29 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
Proportional Change 1990 to 1994 Entrants |
||||||||||
| N entrants to Foster Care | -0.15 | 0.25 | 1.01 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.08 | -0.13 | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| Incidence Rate of Entry | -0.15 | 0.25 | 1.01 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.08 | -0.13 | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.27 | -0.07 | 0.03 | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.10 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Prop. by Reunification | -0.15 | -0.05 | -0.38 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.07 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| Prop. by Adoption | -0.51 | -0.17 | -0.39 | -0.35 | 0.14 | -0.19 | 0.90 | 0.58 | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| Prop. to Relatives | 0.17 | -0.33 | NA | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.31 | -0.26 | -0.00 | -0.12 | -0.13 |
| Prop Reunification | Exit | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.14 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.16 | 0.02 | -0.06 |
Arithmetic Change 1990 to 1994 Entrants |
||||||||||
| N entrants to Foster Care | -291 | 6,534 | 7,711 | 910 | 1,291 | 1,240 | 86 | -2,677 | 2,091 | 16,895 |
| Incidence Rate of Entry | -0.27 | 0.74 | 2.44 | 0.71 | 0.51 | 0.89 | 0.17 | -0.59 | 1.56 | 0.68 |
| Prop. Entrants who Exit in 3 years | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.15 | -0.05 | 0.03 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 0.07 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| Prop. by Reunification | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.14 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| Prop. by Adoption | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| Prop. to Relatives | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.00 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Prop Reunification | Exit | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 | 0.02 | -0.04 |
[Go To Contents]
Logistic Regression Methods and Tables
Eight of the remaining tables, including the next four, present the results of analyses that apply logistic regression procedures in multivariate models, using data at the level of the individual spell. The dependent variables in these logistic models are binary events -- foster care reunification, reentry to foster care, and completed adoption. The independent variables are a set of child and case attributes that have been considered previously as related to foster care history and exit dynamics.
When interpreting these models, the primary statistics of interest are odds ratios, which indicate the relative effects that are attributed to the different values of each predictive variable, controlling for the influence of other variables in the model. For each variable in the model, one of the possible response attributes (or categories) is arbitrarily selected as the "excluded" category, and is assigned an odds ratio of 1.00. The odds ratios computed for each of the other categories of that variable express the likelihood that a spell with that attribute has the predicted outcome-relative to the likelihood that a spell with the "excluded" attribute has the predicted outcome.
As an example, Table IIC.1 presents the results from two models ¾ one predicting reunification within three years of entry and the other predicting any "family" exit (reunifications plus relative exits) within three years of entry. Each model is computed with nine independent variables.
| Predictor Variable | Category | Reunification within 36 months | Family exit within 36 months | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standardized parameter | Odds Ratio | Standardized parameter | Odds Ratio | ||
| Age at Entry | < 3 months | -0.17 | 0.39 | -0.17 | 0.39 |
| 3 -11 months | -0.04 | 0.78 | -0.03 | 0.79 | |
| 1 - 2 years | -0.01 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.96 | |
| 3 - 5 years | 0.00 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.99 | |
| 6 - 8 years | 0.00 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.99 | |
| 9 -11 years * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
| 12-14 years | -0.04 | 0.83 | -0.05 | 0.80 | |
| 15-17 years | -0.11 | 0.57 | -0.12 | 0.51 | |
Gender |
Male | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Female * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
Race/ethnic |
African American | -0.12 | 0.65 | -0.10 | 0.69 |
| Hispanic | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 | |
| White, Other * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
Region |
Primary urban county | -0.12 | 0.65 | -0.12 | 0.64 |
| Remainder of State * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
Sequence |
First Spell in care * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | -0.06 | 0.72 | -0.07 | 0.69 | |
Placement Type |
Congregate Care | 0.03 | 1.18 | 0.02 | 1.12 |
| Other (FC or KC) * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
Stability |
On placement in spell * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 |
| 2+ placements | -0.26 | 0.40 | -0.29 | 0.35 | |
State: |
Alabama | -0.08 | 0.36 | -0.01 | 0.88 |
| California | 0.05 | 1.19 | -0.05 | 0.83 | |
| Illinois | -0.07 | 0.68 | -0.15 | 0.45 | |
| Maryland | -0.03 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.97 | |
| Michigan * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
| Missouri | 0.02 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.94 | |
| New Mexico | 0.03 | 1.37 | 0.01 | 1.28 | |
| New York | -0.01 | 0.96 | -0.02 | 0.91 | |
| Wisconsin | 0.05 | 1.45 | 0.03 | 1.27 | |
Year of Entry |
1990 | 0.02 | 1.12 | 0.02 | 1.12 |
| 1991 | 0.01 | 1.05 | 0.01 | 1.06 | |
| 1992 * | - - | 1.00 | - - | 1.00 | |
| 1993 | 0.00 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.98 | |
| 1994 | -0.02 | 0.92 | -0.02 | 0.93 | |
| Intercept | 0.78 | 1.28 | |||
| exp(intercept) | 2.18 | 3.60 | |||
| Predictive Concordance | 0.70 | 0.71 | |||
| N spells | 404,416 | 404,416 | |||
| N exits (in type) | 176,353 | 197,682 | |||
| Proportion exit (in type) | 0.44 | 0.49 | |||
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
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Looking at the reunification model, the first independent variable is the age of the child at the time of entry to this spell in foster care. The age category "9-11 years" was selected as the excluded category, and its odds ratio is automatically set at 1.00. The odds ratios for each of the other age categories express the likelihood of reunification of a child entering care at that age, relative to the likelihood of reunification for a child entering care at the age of 9 to 11 years, while controlling for the influence of the other eight variables in the model.
The odds ratio estimated for foster care spells that begin when the child is an infant (<3 months of age) is .39. This should be interpreted as meaning that the relative odds of reunification for a newborn entrant, as compared to a 9-11 year old entrant, are .39 to 1. Conversely, we could take the reciprocal and state that a 9-11 year old entrant is 2.56 times more likely to be reunified within three years than is a newborn. The choice of the excluded category should be unimportant because while numerical values of the odds ratio do depend on which particular category is excluded, the values of the odds ratios relative to each other will be preserved.
The parameters listed in this table are the actual coefficients of the logistic regression model. These are the formal statistics estimated by the model. Because logistic models are not readily interpretable in an intuitively approachable manner, we rely on the odds ratios to express the results of the model. The predictive concordance statistic is a measure of goodness-of-fit for the model. It reports the proportion of outcomes that are correctly predicted by the logistic regression.
Table IIC.I presents a logistic regression model for the likelihood of reunification within three years of entry and also a parallel model for the likelihood of a family exit within three years of entry. The units of analysis are all spells that started during the years 1990-94 in the nine study states. Because the spells were observed through 1997, there are no censored observations in these data.
Summary of Logistic Reunification Analysis.
| Age | Reunification is least likely for children under one year of age at entry, and also for children over twelve years of age at entry. The largest difference is between the ratio for infants and that for 9-11 year olds, as 9-11 year olds are 2.56 times more likely to reunify than infants.(8) |
| Gender | Gender has little apparent effect on the likelihood of reunification, with males estimated as being 1 percent more likely than females to exit via reunification. |
| Race | The odds of reunification for white and Hispanic children are even. The odds of reunification are 54 percent [(1.00/0.65) -1] more likely for children from either of these groups than for African American children in foster care. |
| Region | Reunification is 54 percent [(1.00/0.65) -1] more likely for children
living in those portions of these states that are not in the primary urban
counties. (9)
The main urban counties have lower reunification rates. |
| Sequence | Reunification is 39 percent [(1.00/0.72) -1] more likely for children in their first spell in care than it is for children in reentry foster care spells. |
| Placement | Reunification is less likely for children in family foster care arrangements (relative or nonrelative) than for children in institutions or group homes.(10) This result is weakened by the fact that both kinship and nonrelative foster care are included in the foster care category. |
| Stability | Reunification is 150 percent more likely [(1.00/0.40) - 1] from spells where the child stays in one single placement than in spells where the child moves at least one time between placement settings. |
| Year: | Reunification became less likely for each successive annual cohort between 1990 and 1994. The odds for the reunification of 1990 entrants were 22 percent greater [(1.12/0.92)-1) for 1990 entrants than they were for 1994 entrants. |
| State: | Reunification is most likely in Wisconsin and New Mexico and least likely in Alabama. The largest difference in odds is between Wisconsin and Alabama: entrants in Wisconsin are over 4.0 times as likely [1.45 0.36] as entrants in Alabama to exit foster care via reunification. |
It is worth restating that these statistics were computed simultaneously in a single multivariate model. Thus, unlike the bivariate results shown earlier, each of these relationships is observed with the influence of all of the other variables in the model being controlled. It is important to note that, for the most part, the basic direction of most of the bivariate results observed in Table IIA. I are largely preserved in the results produced under multivariate controls. Thus, the independent variables we have discussed each appear to contribute independently to the prediction of reunification levels.
The second model in Table IIC.I shows a parallel analysis with the dependent variable changed from reunification exits to all family exits. Family exits are reunification exits plus exits to relatives. It is significant that each odds ratio is virtually identical to the comparable statistic in the reunification-only analysis, except for major difference in the odds ratios describing differences by state.
The state odds ratios for family exits are much less dispersed than they were for reunifications, and the ordering among states is shifted. Notably, family exits are least likely in Illinois. Alabama, which had the lowest odds of reunification, shows an odds ratio for family exits that is still low, but far more central in the distribution. California had the third highest odds of reunification among the nine states, but has the second lowest odds of any family exit. The largest discrepancy in state odds ratios is between New Mexico and Illinois, with entrants in New Mexico being 2.8 times more likely than entrants in Illinois to experience a family exit. While narrower than the odds of 4:1 observed in the reunification analysis, this represents major difference in the exit activities between these two states.
Table IIC.2, is a modification of the reunification analysis from Table IIC.1, designed to investigate the influence of duration in care and the timing of exits on the relationship between the independent variables and reunification. This design is motivated by the observations made earlier (from the IIB tables) that reunification levels are much higher during the early months of spells in foster care. This model examines whether the factors related to reunification also change as the child remains in care over time.
Overall, the basic structure of the odds ratios is rather similar in all six of these models, suggesting that the influence of these predictor variables on reunification is somewhat stable for all portions of a spell in foster care. However, some differences can be observed.
| Predictor variable | Category | From Time of Spell Entry: | If 6 months elapsed without exit: | If 18 months without exit: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reunification before 6 months | Reunification before 18 months | Reunification before 36 months | Reunification before 18 months | Reunification before 36 months | Reunification before 36 months | ||
| Odds Ratios | Odds Ratios | Odds Ratios | Odds Ratios | Odds Ratios | Odds Ratios | ||
| Age at Entry | <3 months | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| 3-11 months | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.76 | |
| 1-2 years | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.92 | |
| 3-5 years | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97 | |
| 6 - 8 years | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97 | |
| 9-11 years * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 12-14 years | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 1.06 | 0.96 | 1.02 | |
| 15-17 years | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.95 | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
Gender |
Male | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 |
| Female * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Race/Ethnic |
African American | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| Hispanic | 1.12 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.97 | |
| White and Other * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Urban |
Primary urban county | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| Remainder of State * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Sequence |
First Spell * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.93 | |
Care Type |
Congregate Care | 1.07 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.65 |
| All others (FC, KC)* | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Stability |
One placement in spell * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2+ placements | 0.24 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.56 | |
State: |
Alabama | 0.82 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| California | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.66 | |
| Illinois | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.45 | |
| Maryland | 1.21 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.47 | |
| Michigan * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Missouri | 1.93 | 1.29 | 1.17 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.85 | |
| New Mexico | 2.32 | 1.63 | 1.37 | 1.12 | 0.96 | 0.73 | |
| New York | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.97 | |
| Wisconsin | 1.44 | 1.14 | 1.45 | 1.20 | 1.26 | 1.15 | |
| Year of Entry | 1990 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| 1991 | 1.10 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.00 | |
| 1992 * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 1993 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.95 | |
| 1994 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.87 | |
| Intercept | -0.34 | 0.49 | 0.78 | -0.14 | 0.42 | -0.57 | |
| exp(intercept) | 0.71 | 1.63 | 2.18 | 0.87 | 1.52 | 0.57 | |
| Predictive Concordance | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.66 | |
| N spells | 404,416 | 404,416 | 404,416 | 272,725 | 272,725 | 187,286 | |
| N successes | 89,242 | 147,085 | 176,353 | 57,843 | 87,111 | 29,268 | |
| Proportion successes | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.16 | |
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
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For example, the racial gap in the odds of reunification narrows markedly as spell duration increases. Between 0 and 6 months, Hispanic children are 62 percent more likely than African American children to be reunified, and 12 percent more likely than white children. Between 6 and 18 months, Hispanics are 50 percent more likely than African Americans, and 7 percent less likely than whites to be reunified. Between 18 months and 3 years, Hispanics are 26 percent more likely than African Americans and 3 percent less likely than whites to be reunified.
Similarly, children in reentry spells and children in spells with multiple placements are characterized by very low relative likelihoods of reunification during the first six months in care. In each case, as the spell duration increases, the odds of reunification for these categories grow closer to (but not equal to) those of children in first spells and children in single-placement spells.
The largest changes appear in the odds ratios for states. New Mexico and Missouri both have highest relative odds of reunification within the first six months of a spell, yet moderate to low relative odds of reunification between 18 months and 3 years. Thus, early reunification appears to be unusually likely in Missouri. Michigan, in contrast has moderately low relative odds of reunification between months 0 and 6, but the second highest odds of reunification between months 6-18 and 18-36.
Overall, the influence of the substantive covariates of reunification appear to be relatively stable for different temporal portions of foster care spells, and when they do change, they tend to become less influential as the time in care increases. Thus early reunifications appear to be more readily predicted by child characteristics and case factors than do late reunifications. Also, we see that the states vary widely in the likelihood of reunification for spells of different lengths. This is similar to the wide variation in the timing of reunification that was observed in Figure C.
Tables IIC.3 and IIC.4 report results obtained by applying the multivariate logistic regression techniques to each state separately. In Tables IIC.3 (reunification models) and IIC.4(family exit models), each column presents the odds ratios estimated by fitting an independent logistic regression model for a separate state. The model from the nine-state analysis is modified in two ways for use with state data. First, the variable for state is removed from the model. Second, a separate category for kinship care is added to the placement type variable because kinship foster care can be distinguished from foster care with unrelated caregivers in six of these states. For the three states where kinship care is not identifiable, the odds ratios for this category are not estimated.
Predictor Variable |
Category | AL | CA | IL | MD | MI | MO | NM | NY | WI | 9-State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age at Entry |
< 3 months | 1.06 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| 3-11 months | 0.92 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.77 | |
| 1 - 2 years | 1.08 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.93 | |
| 3 - 5 years | 0.99 | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 0.97 | |
| 6 - 8 years | 0.97 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.98 | |
| 9-11 years * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 12-14 years | 1.52 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.83 | |
| 15-17 years | 1.59 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.57 | |
Gender |
Male | 1.03 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0.94 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| Female * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Race/Ethnic |
African American | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.72 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.53 | 0.74 | 0.85 | 0.61 |
| Hispanic | - - | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.11 | |
| White, Other * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Region |
Primary urban county | 1.64 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Remainder of State * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Sequence |
First spell in care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.71 | |
Care Type |
Kinship Care | - - | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.38 | - - | 0.52 | 0.75 | 0.77 | - - | 0.76 |
| Congregate Care | 1.38 | 0.87 | 1.28 | 1.52 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 1.07 | 1.19 | 1.05 | |
| Foster Care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Stability |
One placement * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2+ placements | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.36 | 0.37 | |
Year of Entry |
1990 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 1.60 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 1.12 |
| 1991 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 1.23 | 1.32 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.05 | |
| 1992 * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 1993 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 1.08 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 0.99 | |
| 1994 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.93 | |
| Intercept | -0.89 | 1.18 | 0.87 | 0.35 | 0.71 | 0.83 | 1.52 | 0.71 | 1.11 | 0.91 | |
| exp(intercept) | 0.41 | 3.25 | 2.39 | 1.42 | 2.03 | 2.29 | 4.57 | 2.03 | 3.03 | 2.48 | |
| Predictive Concordance | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.66 | 0.69 | |
| N Entrants | 9,224 | 143,973 | 56,354 | 14,003 | 31,537 | 22,629 | 5,889 | 94,758 | 26,049 | 404,416 | |
| N Reunifications | 2,369 | 72,838 | 15,825 | 4,849 | 13,823 | 10,248 | 3,300 | 37,921 | 15,180 | 176,353 | |
| Prop.Reunifications | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.44 | |
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
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| Predictor variable | Category | AL | CA | IL | MD | MI | MO | NM | NY | WI | 9-State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age at Entry |
< 3 months | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| 3 -11 months | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.96 | 0.79 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.78 | |
| 1 - 2 years | 1.19 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.95 | |
| 3 - 5 years | 1.14 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 1.11 | 0.93 | 0.99 | |
| 6 - 8 years | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 1.08 | 0.90 | 1.03 | 0.92 | 0.99 | |
| 9 -11 years * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 12-14 years | 1.11 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.79 | |
| 15-17 years | 0.99 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.23 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.51 | |
Gender |
Male | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Female * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Race/Ethnic |
African American | 1.10 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| Hispanic | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 1.24 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 1.06 | |
| White, Other * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Region |
Primary urban county | 1.92 | 0.91 | 0.26 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 1.04 | 0.71 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| Remainder of State * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Sequence |
First spell in care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.69 | |
Care Type |
Kinship Care | - - | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.41 | - - | 0.85 | 1.04 | 0.74 | - - | 0.66 |
| Congregate Care | 1.31 | 0.84 | 1.25 | 1.78 | 1.07 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.04 | |
| Foster Care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Stability |
One placement * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2+ placements | 0.35 | 0.29 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.32 | |
Year of Entry |
1990 | 0.99 | 1.06 | 1.58 | 1.09 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| 1991 | 1.17 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.06 | |
| 1992 * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 1993 | 1.12 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.02 | 1.16 | 0.99 | 1.02 | 0.98 | |
| 1994 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 1.09 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.92 | |
| Intercept | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.87 | 0.92 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 2.06 | 1.25 | 1.71 | 1.26 | |
| exp(intercept) | 1.63 | 3.67 | 2.39 | 2.51 | 3.71 | 2.44 | 7.85 | 3.49 | 5.53 | 3.53 | |
| Predictive Concordance | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.70 | |
| N Entrants | 9,224 | 143,973 | 56,354 | 14,003 | 31,537 | 22,629 | 5,889 | 94,758 | 26,049 | 404,416 | |
| N Family Exits | 4,942 | 75,482 | 16,151 | 7,108 | 16,839 | 11,118 | 3,724 | 45,608 | 16,710 | 197,682 | |
| Prop. Family Exits | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 0.64 | 0.49 | |
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
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The findings reported from each of the separate state models resemble one another and the pooled nine-state result. This suggests that there is substantial similarity in the nature of the reunification process across states. Certain results are remarkably stable. These include the findings that gender has little influence on reunification and that reentry spells are much less likely to result in reunification than are first spells.
For other findings, the direction of the results is fairly consistent, but the magnitude of the effects varies widely among states. For example, white children are more likely to be reunified from substitute care than are African American children in all states. In Illinois and New Mexico, the likelihood of reunification is almost twice as high for whites as for African Americans (ratio of 100:55), while race has less predictive importance in Michigan and Wisconsin as shown by odds ratios that are near 100:85. The pattern for Hispanics varies, but they usually are equally likely or somewhat more likely to be reunified than whites.
The placement type variable is more useful with state-level data because kinship care can be separately identified for six of the nine states. In each of these states, reunification within three years is much less likely from kinship foster care than from nonrelative foster care. In most states, the odds of reunification from congregate care placements and nonrelative foster care placements are rather similar, although in Alabama and Maryland the odds of reunification from congregate placements are much higher.
Alabama appears to be the state that is most systematically different in the relationships between these predictive variables and reunification. The patterns of influence by age and by regional influence on reunification observed for Alabama are directly reversed from what is seen in the other eight states.
There is also variability by state in the apparent trends in the likelihood of reunification over time, as seen through the experiences of cohorts defined by year of entry to care. These trends differ from those presented in earlier sections because the multivariate models introduce factors that are related to the changing composition of each state's caseload. For example, if a state foster care caseload has an increasing share of infant cases, we would expect reunification rates to decrease, even if all other practice factors remained stable. In this case, the likelihood of reunification for any given individual would not be changing, but the statewide reunification rates would drop solely because the caseload contains a greater proportion of children that have a lower likelihood of reunification. So, these measures of cohort effects can be interpreted as changes in the likelihood of reunification across years, with some control for shifts in composition based on age, race, gender, region, etc.
The nine-state total shows the odds of reunification decreasing steadily between the 1990 and 1994 cohorts, a total 17 percent reduction [I - (0.93/1.12)] across the five years. For individual states, a clear and direct downward trend for reunification is apparent only for California, Illinois, and New York. For Wisconsin, the odds of reunification increase across the five annual cohorts, and the trends over times in the other states are inconsistent or absent.
The fact that trends observed primarily in California, Illinois and New York have strong influence on the nine-state results bears some thought. Together, these three states contain 73 percent of the foster care spells in the universe being examined, yet they represent only three of the nine separate child welfare systems. To the extent that we are trying to understand national trends and patterns, consideration of pooled data (which gives weight to the larger caseloads) seems useful. If we are trying to understand the behavior of child welfare systems, then examination of individual state models might be more appropriate.
[Go To Contents]
Reentry levels are important markers of the "success" of exits from foster care, and as such, provide a useful outcome measure to consider in evaluating reunification. While we tend to assume that family reunification is a positive outcome, reentry statistics help assess the degree to which reunification practice is successful. That is, whether the children who were returned home were able to remain at home following their discharge from care. When high reunification levels are accompanied by high reentry levels, we are led to assume that many of the reunifications were arranged unwisely or prematurely. (11)
Most of the following reentry analysis looks at the universe of foster care spells that started between 1990-93, that ended within 36 months, and where the child was aged 14 or younger at the time of exit. These restrictions are used to define a risk group for which reentry is equally possible for all cases. In most models, we evaluate reentries that occur within the first year after exit.
Table IID.1 presents counts of children who reentered foster care within one year of an earlier exit, with each cell classified by the type of exit from the prior spell and by a series of child and case characteristics. The cells to the right side of the table present these reentries as a proportion of all relevant exits. For the nine states pooled, 17.3 percent of children reunified from foster care by the age of 14 years reentered care within one year of exit. Reentry rates for relative exits and other exits were slightly higher (18.3%), and reentry from runaway exits was much higher. Adoption and age-out exits are excluded from the reentry analysis because they are expected to produce no identifiable reentries.
| Counts | Proportion who Reenter Care | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Type | Exit Type | |||||||||
| Reunified with Family | Exit to other Relative | Run away from care | Other exit | Total Tracked exits | Reunif | Relative | Run | Other | Total | |
All Exits |
138,458 | 16,820 | 15,858 | 28,722 | 199,858 | |||||
Ages 15-17 at Exit |
22,288 | 2,116 | 9,761 | 6,873 | 41,038 | |||||
| Reenter in 12 mos. | 3,182 | 423 | 4,889 | 1,905 | 10,399 | 0.143 | 0.200 | 0.501 | 0.277 | 0.253 |
Ages 0-14 at Exit |
115,000 | 14,539 | 5,377 | 20,594 | 155,510 | |||||
| Reenter in 12 mos. | 19,945 | 2,654 | 3,485 | 4,953 | 31,037 | 0.173 | 0.183 | 0.648 | 0.240 | 0.200 |
| Reenter in 36 mos | 30,241 | 3,930 | 3,751 | 6,265 | 44,187 | 0.263 | 0.270 | 0.698 | 0.304 | 0.284 |
| Reenter before 1998 | 34,740 | 4,386 | 3,773 | 6,722 | 49,621 | 0.302 | 0.302 | 0.702 | 0.326 | 0.319 |
Ages 0-14, Reentries in 12 months |
||||||||||
State |
||||||||||
| AL | 244 | 340 | 35 | 299 | 918 | 0.163 | 0.192 | 0.547 | 0.186 | 0.186 |
| CA | 8,068 | 221 | 918 | 651 | 9,858 | 0.158 | 0.117 | 0.592 | 0.120 | 0.164 |
| IL | 2,250 | 50 | 703 | 292 | 3,295 | 0.217 | 0.365 | 0.864 | 0.127 | 0.242 |
| MD | 580 | 339 | 37 | 118 | 1,074 | 0.185 | 0.225 | 0.487 | 0.176 | 0.199 |
| MI | 1,426 | 599 | 143 | 140 | 2,308 | 0.154 | 0.285 | 0.581 | 0.075 | 0.171 |
| MO | 1,259 | 75 | 184 | 466 | 1,984 | 0.193 | 0.126 | 0.748 | 0.184 | 0.201 |
| NM | 484 | 22 | 55 | 154 | 715 | 0.204 | 0.079 | 0.618 | 0.348 | 0.224 |
| NY | 3,964 | 840 | 1,261 | 2,433 | 8,498 | 0.166 | 0.155 | 0.616 | 0.482 | 0.233 |
| WI | 1,670 | 168 | 149 | 400 | 2,387 | 0.246 | 0.200 | 0.608 | 0.583 | 0.279 |
Year of Spell Entry |
||||||||||
| 1990 | 4,608 | 652 | 632 | 1,193 | 7,085 | 0.159 | 0.179 | 0.610 | 0.239 | 0.184 |
| 1991 | 4,818 | 690 | 854 | 1,247 | 7,609 | 0.168 | 0.185 | 0.653 | 0.239 | 0.196 |
| 1992 | 5,094 | 637 | 892 | 1,272 | 7,895 | 0.182 | 0.179 | 0.641 | 0.243 | 0.207 |
| 1993 | 5,425 | 675 | 1,107 | 1,241 | 8,448 | 0.184 | 0.187 | 0.674 | 0.240 | 0.211 |
Duration of previous spell in care |
||||||||||
| < 1 month | 4,737 | 824 | 805 | 1,066 | 7,432 | 0.194 | 0.225 | 0.588 | 0.317 | 0.227 |
| 1 - 2 months | 4,140 | 649 | 770 | 1,113 | 6,672 | 0.198 | 0.208 | 0.620 | 0.308 | 0.231 |
| 3 - 5 months | 2,664 | 350 | 550 | 742 | 4,306 | 0.175 | 0.182 | 0.660 | 0.274 | 0.208 |
| 6 -11 months | 3,308 | 347 | 562 | 801 | 5,018 | 0.162 | 0.170 | 0.676 | 0.258 | 0.190 |
| 12-17 months | 2,441 | 219 | 346 | 461 | 3,467 | 0.159 | 0.160 | 0.724 | 0.176 | 0.175 |
| 18-24 months | 1,460 | 123 | 187 | 336 | 2,106 | 0.152 | 0.115 | 0.690 | 0.139 | 0.158 |
| 25-36 months | 1,195 | 142 | 265 | 434 | 2,036 | 0.130 | 0.106 | 0.753 | 0.156 | 0.149 |
Type of Care |
||||||||||
| Congregate Care | 2,867 | 411 | 1,820 | 1,161 | 6,259 | 0.242 | 0.267 | 0.629 | 0.333 | 0.317 |
| Nonrel. Foster Care | 12,628 | 1,971 | 1,198 | 2,967 | 18,764 | 0.183 | 0.198 | 0.675 | 0.261 | 0.204 |
| Kinship Care | 3,940 | 232 | 283 | 654 | 5,109 | 0.127 | 0.083 | 0.699 | 0.129 | 0.130 |
| Mixed care types | 510 | 40 | 184 | 171 | 905 | 0.153 | 0.159 | 0.605 | 0.259 | 0.199 |
Age at Spell Entry |
||||||||||
| Under 3 months | 1,946 | 266 | 0 | 529 | 2,741 | 0.175 | 0.130 | - - | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| 3 mos. - 1 year | 1,856 | 219 | 0 | 416 | 2,491 | 0.181 | 0.145 | - - | 0.209 | 0.181 |
| 1 - 2 years | 3,542 | 447 | 0 | 612 | 4,601 | 0.170 | 0.167 | - - | 0.193 | 0.173 |
| 3 - 5 years | 3,496 | 474 | 0 | 604 | 4,574 | 0.155 | 0.174 | - - | 0.192 | 0.161 |
| 6 - 8 years | 2,461 | 348 | 7 | 575 | 3,391 | 0.140 | 0.172 | 0.583 | 0.221 | 0.153 |
| 9 -11 years | 2,773 | 367 | 508 | 744 | 4,392 | 0.174 | 0.205 | 0.721 | 0.291 | 0.209 |
| 12-14 years | 3,871 | 533 | 2,970 | 1,473 | 8,847 | 0.230 | 0.301 | 0.637 | 0.368 | 0.325 |
Age at Exit |
||||||||||
| 0 years | 2,254 | 338 | 0 | 555 | 3,147 | 0.202 | 0.162 | - - | 0.234 | 0.202 |
| 1 - 2 years | 4,018 | 486 | 0 | 810 | 5,314 | 0.172 | 0.149 | - - | 0.185 | 0.171 |
| 3 - 5 years | 3,875 | 517 | 0 | 639 | 5,031 | 0.155 | 0.169 | - - | 0.170 | 0.158 |
| 6 - 8 years | 2,590 | 353 | 0 | 566 | 3,509 | 0.140 | 0.167 | - - | 0.209 | 0.150 |
| 9 -11 years | 2,604 | 349 | 177 | 670 | 3,800 | 0.161 | 0.189 | 0.681 | 0.267 | 0.183 |
| 12-14 years | 4,604 | 611 | 3,308 | 1,713 | 10,236 | 0.221 | 0.281 | 0.646 | 0.350 | 0.310 |
Spell Sequence |
||||||||||
| First spell in care | 17,359 | 2,369 | 2,352 | 4,055 | 26,135 | 0.165 | 0.178 | 0.627 | 0.223 | 0.186 |
| Reentry spell | 2,586 | 285 | 1,133 | 898 | 4,902 | 0.256 | 0.237 | 0.698 | 0.375 | 0.320 |
| Note: Exits for Completed Adoption and Reaching Age of Majority (aging out of foster care) are excluded from this table. Reentries from adoptions cannot be tracked due to privacy restrictions. Reentries should never occur for children who age out of care. | ||||||||||
By examining the column containing reentry proportions from reunification exits, we observe systematic differences in the relationship between reentry and the independent variables. For all states combined, there is an observed tendency for more reentry by children whose prior spell was in the following categories:
Table IID.2 presents reentry levels from reunification spells for each state separately. Reentry rates vary from a low range of 15-16 percent in Alabama, California, Michigan and New York, to levels over 20 percent in New Mexico, Illinois and Wisconsin.
| AL | CA | IL | MD | MI | MO | NM | NY | WI | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number Reunified within Three Years of Entry |
1,493 | 51,172 | 10,367 | 3,136 | 9,255 | 6,514 | 2,377 | 23,900 | 6,786 | 115,000 |
| Reentry within One Year | 244 | 8,068 | 2,250 | 580 | 1,426 | 1,259 | 484 | 3,964 | 1,670 | 19,945 |
| Reentry in Years 2-3 | 89 | 4,309 | 1,170 | 229 | 795 | 668 | 145 | 2,161 | 730 | 10,296 |
Proportion Reentering Care: |
||||||||||
| within one year | 0.163 | 0.158 | 0.217 | 0.185 | 0.154 | 0.193 | 0.204 | 0.166 | 0.246 | 0.173 |
| during Years 2-3 * | 0.060 | 0.084 | 0.113 | 0.073 | 0.086 | 0.103 | 0.061 | 0.090 | 0.108 | 0.090 |
Proportion Reentering Care Within One Year of Reunification |
||||||||||
Year Spell Start |
||||||||||
| 1990 | 0.141 | 0.141 | 0.211 | 0.167 | 0.147 | 0.188 | 0.174 | 0.157 | 0.232 | 0.159 |
| 1991 | 0.156 | 0.149 | 0.221 | 0.188 | 0.151 | 0.191 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.219 | 0.168 |
| 1992 | 0.170 | 0.171 | 0.228 | 0.183 | 0.143 | 0.192 | 0.218 | 0.169 | 0.271 | 0.182 |
| 1993 | 0.196 | 0.169 | 0.208 | 0.200 | 0.176 | 0.201 | 0.225 | 0.173 | 0.256 | 0.184 |
Duration of Prior Spell |
||||||||||
| < 1 month | 0.223 | 0.152 | 0.270 | 0.207 | 0.168 | 0.191 | 0.226 | 0.216 | 0.334 | 0.194 |
| 1-2 months | 0.146 | 0.174 | 0.239 | 0.203 | 0.161 | 0.195 | 0.164 | 0.247 | 0.252 | 0.198 |
| 3-5 months | 0.114 | 0.166 | 0.209 | 0.186 | 0.154 | 0.207 | 0.165 | 0.160 | 0.232 | 0.175 |
| 6-11 months | 0.182 | 0.151 | 0.207 | 0.149 | 0.148 | 0.191 | 0.221 | 0.141 | 0.231 | 0.162 |
| 12-17 months | 0.066 | 0.153 | 0.211 | 0.170 | 0.172 | 0.218 | 0.227 | 0.126 | 0.176 | 0.159 |
| 18-23 months | 0.039 | 0.160 | 0.192 | 0.163 | 0.134 | 0.150 | 0.252 | 0.115 | 0.219 | 0.152 |
| 24-36 months | 0.067 | 0.137 | 0.161 | 0.139 | 0.123 | 0.170 | 0.169 | 0.102 | 0.158 | 0.130 |
Primary Type of Care |
||||||||||
| Congregate | 0.205 | 0.222 | 0.334 | 0.238 | 0.178 | 0.249 | 0.222 | 0.243 | 0.292 | 0.242 |
| Unrelated Foster Care | 0.143 | 0.177 | 0.221 | 0.181 | 0.152 | 0.185 | 0.218 | 0.175 | 0.244 | 0.183 |
| Kinship Care | - - | 0.126 | 0.188 | 0.122 | - - | 0.120 | 0.140 | 0.079 | - - | 0.127 |
| Mixed Care Types | 0.200 | 0.149 | 0.202 | 0.104 | - - | 0.273 | 0.273 | 0.114 | 0.158 | 0.153 |
Age at Exit |
||||||||||
| 0 years | 0.149 | 0.199 | 0.249 | 0.193 | 0.187 | 0.204 | 0.183 | 0.194 | 0.260 | 0.202 |
| 1-2 years | 0.182 | 0.163 | 0.211 | 0.182 | 0.173 | 0.199 | 0.230 | 0.147 | 0.236 | 0.172 |
| 3-5 years | 0.153 | 0.150 | 0.200 | 0.160 | 0.138 | 0.171 | 0.215 | 0.131 | 0.191 | 0.155 |
| 6-8 years | 0.130 | 0.133 | 0.180 | 0.135 | 0.121 | 0.135 | 0.215 | 0.124 | 0.186 | 0.140 |
| 9-11 years | 0.142 | 0.143 | 0.192 | 0.187 | 0.144 | 0.187 | 0.175 | 0.161 | 0.229 | 0.161 |
| 12-14 years | 0.191 | 0.174 | 0.295 | 0.248 | 0.176 | 0.254 | 0.181 | 0.234 | 0.317 | 0.221 |
Race/Ethnicity |
||||||||||
| African American | 0.187 | 0.188 | 0.230 | 0.178 | 0.162 | 0.216 | 0.211 | 0.154 | 0.185 | 0.184 |
| Hispanic | 0.000 | 0.133 | 0.159 | 0.125 | 0.143 | 0.167 | 0.189 | 0.142 | 0.216 | 0.139 |
| Other | 0.182 | 0.120 | 0.326 | 0.194 | 0.136 | 0.221 | 0.244 | 0.168 | 0.277 | 0.172 |
| White | 0.148 | 0.161 | 0.205 | 0.198 | 0.149 | 0.180 | 0.207 | 0.200 | 0.267 | 0.181 |
Spell Sequence |
||||||||||
| First Spell | 0.158 | 0.151 | 0.209 | 0.178 | 0.148 | 0.185 | 0.190 | 0.161 | 0.221 | 0.165 |
| Reentry Spell | 0.212 | 0.240 | 0.308 | 0.269 | 0.220 | 0.274 | 0.295 | 0.209 | 0.416 | 0.256 |
Placement Stability |
||||||||||
| One Placement | 0.193 | 0.153 | 0.220 | 0.177 | 0.144 | 0.181 | 0.186 | 0.177 | 0.242 | 0.171 |
| Two placements | 0.106 | 0.160 | 0.217 | 0.198 | 0.176 | 0.184 | 0.212 | 0.147 | 0.256 | 0.172 |
| 3-4 Placements | 0.116 | 0.185 | 0.199 | 0.201 | 0.167 | 0.210 | 0.239 | 0.154 | 0.274 | 0.186 |
| 5 or more placements | 0.069 | 0.214 | 0.253 | 0.256 | 0.169 | 0.259 | 0.291 | 0.120 | 0.275 | 0.211 |
*Note: Reentry proportions for years 2 and 3 may be partially censored for spells that started in 1992 or 1993. |
||||||||||
Again, the individual state patterns tend to resemble the pattern for all states combined with a number of deviations. One interesting pattern is that the proportion of reentries appears to be increasing over the time of observation in all states (except for a final-year drop-off in Illinois and Wisconsin). There is also a strong tendency for reentries to occur more frequently after prior spells in care that were of shorter duration. The relation to duration is least apparent in Michigan, Missouri and California. In addition, Michigan, Missouri and New Mexico each show a pattern of higher reentries from one of the middle-length spell groups (12-24 months).
However, there does not appear to be a direct relationship, at the aggregate level, between those states with high reunification rates and those states with high reentry rates. Broad conclusions of this type would be attractive, but are not supported by the data. On the one hand, Wisconsin and New Mexico have high levels of each type, and Alabama has low levels of both types. These observations would support the idea that reentry and reunification levels are systemically related. But in contrast, California has higher reunification and lower reentry, while Illinois has lower reunification and higher reentry.
Tables IIE.1 and IIE.2 present the results of logistic regression models predicting the likelihood of reentry within 12 months of a reunification from foster care. As with the logistic regression models used in the analysis of reunification, these results are computed with multivariate controls. Even so, they tend to reproduce the findings observed from the bivariate proportions described in the previous section.
Predictor Variable |
Category | Standardized parameter | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
Age at Entry |
< 3 months | 0.021 | 1.15 |
| 3 -11 months | 0.015 | 1.11 | |
| 1 - 2 years | 0.000 | 1.00 | |
| 3 - 5 years | -0.024 | 0.89 | |
| 6 - 8 years | -0.043 | 0.79 | |
| 9 -11 years * | - - | 1.00 | |
| 12-14 years | 0.035 | 1.18 | |
| 15-17 years | -0.114 | 0.53 | |
Gender |
Male | 0.003 | 1.01 |
| Female * | - - | 1.00 | |
Race/Ethnic |
African American | 0.039 | 1.17 |
| Hispanic | -0.032 | 0.86 | |
| White, Other * | - - | 1.00 | |
Region |
Primary Urban County | -0.053 | 0.82 |
| Remainder of State * | - - | 1.00 | |
Sequence |
First Spell in Care * | - - | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 0.087 | 1.68 | |
Care Type |
Congregate Care | 0.045 | 1.24 |
| Foster Care, Kin Care * | - - | 1.00 | |
Stability |
One Placement in Spell * | - - | 1.00 |
| 2+ placements | 0.050 | 1.21 | |
Duration |
Log(months in spell) | -0.111 | 0.84 |
State |
Alabama | -0.014 | 0.81 |
| California | 0.031 | 1.12 | |
| Illinois | 0.074 | 1.61 | |
| Maryland | 0.014 | 1.17 | |
| Michigan * | - - | 1.00 | |
| Missouri | 0.020 | 1.17 | |
| New Mexico | 0.022 | 1.34 | |
| New York | 0.011 | 1.05 | |
| Wisconsin | 0.080 | 1.69 | |
Year of Entry |
1990 | -0.022 | 0.91 |
| 1991 | -0.017 | 0.93 | |
| 1992 * | - - | 1.00 | |
| 1993 | 0.002 | 1.01 | |
| Intercept | -1.516 | ||
| exp(intercept) | 0.220 | ||
| Concordance | 0.61 | ||
| N | 138,503 | ||
| N reentries | 23,131 | ||
| Proportion Reentry | 0.17 | ||
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
|||
The pooled nine-state results in the model in Tables IIE.1 suggests the following:
The individual state models in Table IIE.2 again tend to resemble the pooled model. Some of the differences observed are:
| AL | CA | IL | MD | MI | MO | NM | NY | WI | 9-State | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age at Entry |
||||||||||
| < 3 months | 0.79 | 1.30 | 1.08 | 0.91 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 0.61 | 0.98 | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| 3 -11 months | 0.74 | 1.25 | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 1.34 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| 1 - 2 years | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.27 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| 3 - 5 years | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 1.36 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.89 |
| 6 - 8 years | 0.62 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.98 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| 9 -11 years * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 12-14 years | 0.94 | 1.10 | 1.52 | 1.21 | 0.97 | 1.28 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| 15-17 years | 0.36 | 0.56 | 0.90 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
Gender |
||||||||||
| Male | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Female * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Race/Ethnic |
||||||||||
| African American | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.23 | 0.97 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 0.85 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Hispanic | - - | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| White, Other * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Region |
||||||||||
| Primary Urban County | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.74 | 0.98 | 1.45 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.82 |
| Remainder of State | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Sequence * |
||||||||||
| First Spell in Care | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 1.19 | 1.73 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.63 | 1.59 | 1.69 | 1.40 | 1.76 | 1.67 |
Care Type |
||||||||||
| Kinship Care | - - | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.64 | - - | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.59 | - - | 0.77 |
| Congregate Care | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 0.85 | 1.16 |
| Foster Care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Stability |
||||||||||
| One Placement in Spell * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2+ placements | 0.76 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.27 | 1.38 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.20 |
Duration |
||||||||||
| Log(months in spell) | 0.74 | 0.99 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.85 |
Year of Entry |
||||||||||
| 1990 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 1.08 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| 1991 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.07 | 0.78 | 1.02 | 0.81 | 0.93 |
| 1992 * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1993 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.29 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 1.01 |
Intercept |
-1.32 | -1.60 | -1.20 | -1.24 | -1.84 | -1.68 | -1.48 | -0.90 | -0.58 | -1.31 |
| 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.56 | 0.27 | |
Concordance |
0.66 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
N |
1,962 | 56,518 | 12,129 | 3,745 | 10,838 | 8,080 | 2,666 | 31,047 | 11,518 | 138,503 |
N reentries |
281 | 8,733 | 2,706 | 675 | 1,590 | 1,495 | 520 | 4,628 | 2,503 | 23,131 |
Prop. reenter in 12 mos. |
0.14 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.17 |
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
||||||||||
Age: In Alabama, New York, and Wisconsin, the youngest children (those who entered their prior spell under one year of age) do not have higher reentry rates. In New Mexico, the highest reentry rates are for children who entered their first spell between 3-5 years of age-while in most states this was one of the lower reentry age groups. Also, Alabama, Michigan, and New Mexico do not show an increase in reentry for children ages 12-14.
Race and Ethnicity: Reentry levels are lower for Hispanics in all states. Reentry levels are much higher for African Americans than whites in Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri. In Maryland, New York, and Wisconsin, the reentry levels for African Americans and whites are very similar. In New Mexico, African American reentry rates are lower than those for Hispanics or whites.
Region: Reentry levels are lower in the primary urban county for all states except New Mexico, where they are substantially higher in Bernalillo County. Reentry rates are especially low in the primary urban places in Michigan (Wayne County.), New York (New York City) and Wisconsin (Milwaukee County.).
Duration: The inverse relation between spell duration and the likelihood of reentry is strongest in Alabama, New York, and Wisconsin. Note that these include one low-reunification state (Alabama), one medium-reunification state (New York), and one high-reunification state (Wisconsin).
Time Trends: As was observed in the reunification models, while the pooled nine-state data shows a clear trend across entry cohorts (for reentry it is increasing), the individual state trends are less clear or mixed. Alabama, California, and Maryland are the only states where the odds ratios present a clear picture of increasing likelihood of reentry.
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Logistic regression models of the likelihood of adoption from foster care are presented in Tables IIF.I (pooled data) and IIF.2 (individual states). The universe is composed of all spells that began in 1990-93 in the nine study states. Adoptive exits are observed for up to four years following entry.
Predictor Variable |
Category | Standardized parameter | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
Age at Entry |
0 - 2 months | 0.51 | 15.54 |
| 3 - 11 months | 0.26 | 5.69 | |
| 1 - 2 years | 0.23 | 3.36 | |
| 3 - 5 years | 0.16 | 2.28 | |
| 6 - 8 years | 0.08 | 1.61 | |
| 9 - 11 years * | - - | 1.00 | |
| 12 - 14 years | -0.23 | 0.32 | |
| 15 - 17 years | -0.41 | 0.11 | |
Gender |
Male | -0.01 | 0.97 |
| Female * | - - | 1.00 | |
Race/Ethnic |
African American | -0.18 | 0.51 |
| Hispanic | -0.07 | 0.72 | |
| White, Other * | - - | 1.00 | |
Region |
Primary Urban County | -0.26 | 0.38 |
| Remainder of State | - - | 1.00 | |
Sequence |
First Spell in Care * | - - | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 0.07 | 1.51 | |
Care Type |
Congregate Care | -0.15 | 0.47 |
| Foster Care, Kin Care * | - - | 1.00 | |
Spell Duration |
Log(months in spell) | 0.44 | 1.74 |
State |
Alabama | -0.16 | 0.15 |
| California | -0.46 | 0.18 | |
| Illinois | -0.26 | 0.24 | |
| Maryland | -0.05 | 0.60 | |
| Michigan * | - - | 1.00 | |
| Missouri | -0.09 | 0.49 | |
| New Mexico | -0.06 | 0.40 | |
| New York | -0.38 | 0.20 | |
| Wisconsin | -0.17 | 0.28 | |
Year of Entry |
1990 | -0.02 | 0.91 |
| 1991 | -0.02 | 0.93 | |
| 1992 * | - - | 1.00 | |
| 1993 | 0.02 | 1.10 | |
| Intercept | -3.30 | ||
| exp(intercept) | 0.04 | ||
| Concordance | 0.86 | ||
| N spells observed | 313,359 | ||
| N adoptions in 4 years | 22,141 | ||
| Percent adopted in 4 years | 7.1% | ||
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the excluded category for their variable. The odds ratios of 1.00 associated with these predictors are predetermined. The odds ratios for other categories of the variable express the effect in relation to that of the excluded category. |
|||
| State | 9 states (no kin term) | 9 states (with kin term) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | CA | IL | MD | MI | MO | NM | NY | WI | |||
| ratios of relative odds of adoption | |||||||||||
Age at Entry |
|||||||||||
| 0 - 2 months | 117.71 | 49.32 | 16.27 | 49.77 | 2.98 | 21.50 | 7.01 | 11.57 | 13.03 | 12.31 | 12.28 |
| 3 - 11 months | 21.91 | 18.17 | 4.95 | 14.79 | 1.79 | 7.72 | 3.23 | 4.74 | 4.88 | 5.20 | 5.31 |
| 1 - 2 years | 16.04 | 10.83 | 2.56 | 8.35 | 1.52 | 3.36 | 2.72 | 2.61 | 3.60 | 3.17 | 3.32 |
| 3 - 5 years | 7.43 | 5.38 | 1.94 | 5.87 | 1.47 | 2.48 | 1.59 | 1.82 | 2.35 | 2.18 | 2.29 |
| 6 - 8 years | 3.47 | 2.49 | 1.57 | 2.74 | 1.40 | 1.43 | 1.19 | 1.43 | 1.90 | 1.59 | 1.65 |
| 9 - 11 years * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 12 - 14 years | - - | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| 15 - 17 years | - - | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
Gender |
|||||||||||
| Male | 1.15 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 0.97 |
| Female * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Race/Ethnic |
|||||||||||
| African American | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| Hispanic | - - | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.48 | 0.66 | 2.00 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 0.74 | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| White, Other * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Region | |||||||||||
| Primary Urban County | 0.83 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.65 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| Remainder of State * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Spell Sequence |
|||||||||||
| First Spell in Care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Reentry Spell | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.14 | 1.57 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.70 | 1.81 | 1.41 | 1.47 | 1.35 |
Care Type |
|||||||||||
| Kinship Care | - - | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.38 | - - | 0.51 | 0.93 | 0.27 | - - | - - | 0.26 |
| Congregate Care | 0.22 | 0.99 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.71 | 0.55 | 0.11 | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| Foster Care * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Spell Duration |
|||||||||||
| Log(months) | 2.56 | 1.79 | 1.24 | 2.03 | 1.94 | 1.95 | 3.32 | 1.82 | 2.08 | 1.60 | 1.69 |
Year Admitted |
|||||||||||
| 1990 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 1.23 | 1.10 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.89 |
| 1991 | 0.96 | 1.01 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.09 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| 1992 * | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1993 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 1.23 | 1.02 | 1.26 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.09 | 1.10 |
Intercept |
-8.09 | -5.64 | -3.25 | -4.90 | -3.09 | -4.80 | -6.04 | -4.80 | -5.05 | -4.24 | -4.26 |
exp(intercept) |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Concordance |
0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.86 |
N spells observed |
7,511 | 110,889 | 40,981 | 10,639 | 24,470 | 17,609 | 4,735 | 76,849 | 19,676 | 313,359 | 313,359 |
N adoptions in 4 years |
289 | 7,080 | 2,586 | 1,090 | 4,170 | 1,613 | 333 | 4,186 | 794 | 22,141 | 22,141 |
Percent adopted in 4 years |
3.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
Note: Predictors noted with "*" are not contained in model, but are the "excluded" category for their variable. Predetermined odds ratios of 1.00 are assigned to these categories. Odds ratios for other categories of the same variable express effects in relation to that of the excluded category. |
|||||||||||
The pooled analysis highlights the dramatic relationship between age at spell entry and the likelihood of exit by adoption. Children who entered foster care as newborns (0-2 months) were 49 times more likely [15.54/0.32] to have an adoptive exit from care than were children who entered care at the ages of 12-14 years, and over 15 times more likely [ 15.54/1.00] to have an adoptive exit than children who entered care between the ages of 9-11. Newborns were even 2.73 times more likely [ 15.54/5.69] to be adopted from care than were children who entered care between the ages of 3 months and 1 year.
Regarding the other variables:
Adoption models for each state are shown separately in Table IIF.2. Here, we can see that Michigan differed from the other eight states in several ways. Most importantly, the adoption activity in Michigan was less limited to the population of children who entered foster care as newborns. The reason that the odds ratio for newborns in Michigan (2.98) is so much smaller than those for the other states (which range from 7 to 118) is not because Michigan has fewer infant adoptions. It is because Michigan has many more adoptions of children who entered at 9-11 years (the "excluded" category which forms the basis of the odds ratios). The odds ratio is the relative likelihood of adoption for children from the two categories. Michigan is also one of three states (Illinois and Missouri are the others) that move almost as high a share of children in their first spells to adoption as reentry spells. It is also one of two states (Missouri is the other) where adoption of African American children from foster care occurs with at least a 75 percent likelihood as the adoption of white children. Thus, the markedly higher adoption rates in Michigan seem to result from an expansion of the domain of potentially adoptable foster children in comparison to the other states observed.(12)
The likelihood of adoptive outcomes from kinship spells in care is very low in the six states where kinship care can be tracked.
Several individual states show unusual patterns in the likelihood of adoption from foster care. California had extremely low adoption levels in Los Angeles, relative to other parts of the state; and unusually high levels of adoption from congregate care. In New York, an unusually high proportion of foster care adoptions is from reentry spells, and the likelihood of adoption almost doubled between 1990 and 1993.
The time trend for all states pooled is an increase in the likelihood of adoption for successive cohorts. At least five of the individual states reflect this general trend, and only Missouri showed a substantial decrease in adoptions during this period.
Like reunification, adoptions are generally regarded as positive exits from foster care, in that they define new life situations that are intended to be permanent, nonrestrictive, and nurturing. Adoptions are a preferred resolution when family-centered options seem unfeasible. Because adoption and reunification are mutually exclusive events, in that they cannot both be discharge destinations for the same spell in care, we might expect that they would be negatively related to one another at the aggregate level. But again the statewide findings do not support such a conclusion.
However, there is a clear relation between reunification and adoption in child welfare practice. This was made explicit in the Adoption and Safe Families Act, which included language that directed states to initiate pre-adoptive activity for most foster care cases where reunification had not been accomplished within 15 months of entry. This law does not rule out future reunification activity, in fact concurrent planning activity is encouraged. It does, however, explicitly target an increase in adoptions from foster care and a reduction in the time that elapses before adoption.
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The comparison of the foster care reunification patterns from nine states extends our perspective about the processes involved in child discharges from the custody of state child welfare agencies.
This work is based on analysis of the population of children who have been admitted to foster care, and examines information from the administrative records of their foster care history. As such, it does not examine the underlying social contexts of the communities and families from which the children have been removed, nor does it consider the substance of reunification work -- such as the nature and quantity of services provided to the child and/or the family of origin. Instead, it provides comparable information about the outcomes of these forces, that is, the child's history in the foster care system.
There are similarities in reunification patterns across all states. This is seen most clearly in the timing of discharges from care -- exits by family reunification tend to occur earlier in foster care episodes than do other types of exits. The likelihood of reunification also tends to be similarly related to the same child and case attributes across most states.
But there is also extensive variability in reunification patterns across states. This is seen most clearly in the overall prevalence of reunification -- as the proportion of foster care exits that are achieved via family reunification varies widely across the nine states.
These apparently contradictory statements are drawn from empirical observation of reunification patterns during the mid-1990s. It is important to note that foster care reunification is not an isolated process, but rather one that is embedded in many other dynamics of state child welfare systems. Reunification levels are influenced greatly by the composition of the foster care population, and depend in part on the decisions that determine placement in foster care. For example, an emphasis on placement prevention strategies might be expected to reduce reunification levels, because a segment of "likely" cases for reunification would be diverted from placement in foster care.
The prevailing feature of the reunification process is that the likelihood of exit by reunification is highest at the beginning of a child's stay in foster care, and gradually decreases as time in care elapses. For all foster care episodes observed in these data, approximately 8 percent ended in reunification during the first month of care, about 30 percent during the first year in care, and about 40 percent during the first three years in care. This basic pattern exists for each state, as shown in the graphic of the likelihood of reunification over time in Figure C.
As a result, reunification tends to occur earlier (or for episodes of shorter duration) than other types of foster care exit. This pattern is consistent with two widely held tenets of child welfare practice: that foster care is intended to serve as a temporary intervention in a time of family crisis, and that family reunification is the preferred outcome of placement in alternative care arrangements. For a certain segment of the foster care population, relatively rapid reunification is achieved. During the time period observed, the following categories describe basic foster care (based on Table II.B.1, Panels C and D, numbers rounded):
Although the temporal pattern of reunification exits is similar across states, there is extensive variability in the actual levels. The percent of exits by reunification varied between 29 percent in Alabama and 67 percent in California and Wisconsin. Certain states (NM, MO, WI, CA) had high proportions of reunification levels during the first month. This may reflect entry decisions as well as exit practice. Some states (WI, NM, MI) demonstrated higher levels of continuing reunification after 6 months.
Analysis of Reunification
The likelihood of reunification is related to a number of variables describing both child and case characteristics. These were analyzed using multivariate techniques to control for the fact that the characteristic variables are themselves highly interrelated.
Child Characteristics:
Case Characteristics:
Trends:
States:
Analysis of Reentry After Reunification
Overall, 17 percent of the observed family reunifications resulted in the child re-entering foster care within one year of exit. Reentry to foster care is a significant signal that the reunification was not fully successful. A multivariate analysis was performed on the likelihood of reentry after an exit by reunification.
Higher reentry levels were observed for children who entered care during their teenage years, children who had been placed in congregate care arrangements during their stay in foster care, children whose initial spell in care was shorter in duration, children who had previously experienced a reentry to foster care, children from the non-urban counties, and for African-American children.
Lower reentry levels were observed for children who had entered as pre-teens, children who had been placed in family foster homes, children whose previous spell had been longer in duration, children who had experienced only one stay in foster care, children from large urban counties, and for Hispanic children.
The states with the highest reentry rates were Wisconsin and Illinois. While Wisconsin was also one of the states with higher levels of reunification, Illinois was one of the lower reunification states, so there is no evidence of a clear relationship between reunification rates and reentry rates at the aggregate level. Alabama and Michigan had the lowest reentry levels.
The likelihood of reentry after reunification exits was increasing moderately over time.
Adoption Analysis
Exits from foster care by completed adoption were analyzed using the same multivariate tools that were applied in the analysis of exits by reunification.
The age of the child at entry to foster care is the dominant factor in these models. Children who were placed in foster care as newborns (0-2 months of age) had a much greater likelihood of adoption than other children. (Approximately 3 times higher than children who entered at 3-12 months of age, 5 times higher than 1-2 years, etc.) This is a combination of the "attractiveness" of young children to potential adoptive parents and of the increased chance that the birth parents of newborns placed in foster care might be at higher risk of losing their parental rights than parents of older children.
Other factors related to increased likelihood of adoption include: children from non-urban counties, white children, children in first foster placements, children in family foster arrangements, and children with longer duration in alternative care.
Factors related to a lower likelihood of adoption include: children from large urban counties, African-American children, children who have reentered foster care at least once, children in congregate care placements, and children with briefer duration of time in foster care.
A substantial increase in adoptions was noted over time, with children who entered foster care in 1993 being over 20 percent more likely to exit via adoption than the children who entered foster care in 1990.
Michigan has a much higher likelihood of foster care adoption than any of the other eight states. Alabama, California, New York and Illinois have the lowest likelihoods of adoption.
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1. The dates of coverage for Maryland and New Mexico are for fiscal years 1990 through 1997 (July 1, 1989 through June 30, 1996). In the analysis, these fiscal year data will be compared directly to calendar year date from the other seven states.
2. Ideally, we would also consider attributes of the family of origin, the parents (or other home caregivers), and the home environment; but this type of information is not generally available through child welfare tracking systems.
3. The analysis in later sections will focus almost exclusively on reunification rates (the likelihood of reunification among entrants). The focus on exit distribution in this section is to highlight the differences between children who are reunified and children who exit in other ways.
4. Other evidence suggests that a large share of the exits coded as "other" in Illinois (17.8% of exits) may actually be relative exits.
5. Please note that kinship care is not tracked in Alabama, Michigan, and Wisconsin because it is not fully identifiable in their data systems. Kinship placements in these states are combined with nonrelative foster care. Fortunately, for these analyses, none of these states uses kinship placement with the frequency that Illinois, New York, and California do.
6. Looking at reunification as a proportion for all entries (rather than exits) illustrates the issue discussed here. During the period of observation, about 43 percent of children in kinship care were reunified, as compared to 48 percent of children in nonrelative foster care and congregate care. Therefore, while a higher proportion of exits from kin care were by reunification, a lower proportion of kinship care cases were observed to result in reunification.
7. Each cell in the third panel is produced by dividing the 1994 number by the 1990 number, and subtracting 1 from the result. Each cell in the fourth panel is obtained by subtracting the 1990 number from the 1994 number. The third panel is the focus of analysis. The fourth panel is to remind us that certain large proportional changes can result from small numbers.
8. The following are equivalent expressions: 9-11 year olds are 2.56 times more likely to reunify than infants. Infants are 156 percent less likely to reunify than 9-11 year olds. The odds ratio of reunification between infants and 9-11 year olds is .39 to 1.
9. Primary urban counties have been as follows: AL (Jefferson), CA (Los Angeles), IL (Cook), MD (Baltimore City), MI (Wayne), MO (Jackson and St. Louis City), NM (Bernalillo), NY (New York City), and WI (Milwaukee).
10. Because kinship care cannot be identified in all states, relative and nonrelative foster care are combined into one category for the nine-state analysis tables that follow, a category for kinship care will be reported separately. For states where kinship cannot be identified, relative and nonrelative care will continue to be combined, and the value for kinship care is reported as "missing."
11. This argument is presented in its simplest form. Indeed, some reentry is probably better than none, although defining an optimal level involves both technical and normative questions. If no children reenter foster care, it could be understood to imply that the decisions to reunify have been made too conservatively. In this case we should be concerned that a large number of potentially successful reunifications are avoided for fear of possible failure. However, we believe the reentry levels we report here are generally above the levels one would consider optimal.
12. It is also worth noting that some states pay providers more according to the degree of difficulty to adopt.
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