Status Report on Research on the Outcomes of Welfare Reform, 2001

Chapter I: Introduction and Overview

Background

In its report for the FY 2001 Appropriation for the Department of Health and Human Services, the Conference Committee added funds for the fourth year to the Policy Research account in the Office of the Secretary and directed in its report that the funding support studies of the outcomes of welfare reform:

"The conferees include $7,125,000 to continue the study of the outcomes of welfare reform and to assess the impacts of policy changes on the low-income population. The conferees recommend that this effort include the collection and use of state-specific surveys and state and federal administration data, including data which are newly becoming available from state surveys. These studies should focus on assessing the well-being of the low-income population, developing and reporting reliable state-by-state measures of family hardship and well-being and of the utilization of other support programs, and improving the capabilities and comparability of data collection efforts. These studies should continue to measure outcomes for a broad population of welfare recipients, former recipients, potential recipients, and other special populations affected by state TANF policies. The conferees further expect a report on these topics to be submitted to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees by May 1, 2001." (H. Rept. 106-1033, page 165)

This document has been prepared by the Office of the Secretary, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE), in response to the requirement for a report. Unless otherwise noted, this report discusses only the welfare outcomes research agenda supported by the targeted appropriation. No attempt has been made to reflect the separately funded welfare research agenda of the Department's Administration for Children and Families (ACF)⁽¹⁾ or the Department's broader health and human services research agendas, except to the extent that some projects are supported jointly by welfare outcomes funding and funds from other sources.

General Strategies for Understanding the Outcomes of Welfare Reform

In the four and a half years since the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) was signed into law, the Department has been able to make significant contributions to the evidence being gathered and analyzed about the implementation and effects of welfare reform, due in large part to the infusion of Policy Research funding dedicated to studying welfare outcomes. Findings are now available on how those who left welfare are faring - their employment status, their wages and earnings, the job supports they are using, their poverty status, recidivism rates, material hardship, and family well-being. Information from studies of individuals and their families who are formally or informally diverted from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits are just becoming available. Projects examining the characteristics of the TANF caseload (i.e., "stayers"), including potential barriers to employment that welfare recipients may face, are planned for this year.

A substantial body of research about the outcomes of welfare reform has been and is being conducted by government- and foundation-funded researchers. The Department has paid careful attention to identifying on-going research, evaluation, and data activities which could be enhanced or modified, to identifying activities being funded or planned by other entities, to identifying knowledge gaps, and to avoiding unnecessary duplication. We have sought to create a portfolio of studies and strategies across a wide spectrum of welfare outcomes policy interests. In an effort to optimize the potential to answer the fundamental questions about welfare reform, we have used the targeted Policy Research funds to fully fund some projects, to fund specific portions of some larger studies, and to co-fund with other partners, including federal and state agencies, still other projects.

In keeping with the recommendations of the conferees, our research agenda over the past three years has covered a broad array of topics that complement other public and private efforts to assess the outcomes of welfare reform. We have funded studies that measure outcomes for a broad population of low-income families, examine diversion practices, and measure family hardship and well-being including the utilization of other support programs. Projects also are in place to assess the effects of welfare reform on current, former and potential welfare recipients and other special populations (e.g., those with mental health and substance abuse problems, people with disabilities, and immigrant families) affected by state TANF policies. Our plans for 2001 include studying those who remain on public assistance. Some of our research projects involve the collection and use of state-specific surveys and state and federal administrative data. We are also making explicit attempts to increase state and local capacity for data collection efforts. In addition, we are working to facilitate greater comparability in state and local level studies and continue to provide leadership in national-level survey work. Specific projects initiated over the past three years and our plans for 2001 activities are highlighted in the following chapters.

Despite the breadth and scope of the Department's welfare reform research agenda, significant questions about the implementation and outcomes of welfare reform remain, across a broad range of interests and perspectives. For example, since welfare reform has been implemented in the context of a strong national economy, we know little about the effect of welfare reform in other economic circumstances. There is wide variation in the design and application of policies across states, between local sites, and even from worker-to-worker. State policies and organizational structures continue to evolve. In some cases, state responsibilities are further devolved and/or contracted out to for- or non-profit entities. Little is known about individual reform strategies and what works best for whom. We know little about low-income families who do not become welfare recipients, or about the people who continue to receive cash assistance, even as the federal five-year time limit on cash benefits comes close. Many variables affect the outcomes of welfare reform, from welfare policies to the economy, and these variables often have confounding effects.

Future Directions

ASPE's research plan for the targeted welfare outcomes policy research funds for FY 2001 is designed to meet the overall goal of creating an integrated picture of the low-income population, especially low-income families with children, in the wake of welfare reform. It focuses on broader analyses of the economic condition, health and well-being, socio-demographic characteristics, and the social service needs of low-income individuals, families, and children. Our interest is to cover a wide spectrum of policy interests focusing on welfare outcomes, poverty, working families, supports for low-income populations, the hard-to-serve and other special populations, and effects on children. We envision a broad-based research agenda that:

• addresses a wide range of topics related to families and children, including economic and other supports for poor families,
• continues some of our earlier activities to promote, develop, and support state and local capacity for data collection and monitoring studies, by supporting state-level data collection efforts, administrative data linking, and the creation of public-use and restricted-access data files, and
• facilitates states' monitoring of outcomes for their own state and local populations. These activities include providing grants to build state data collection and research capacities, providing technical assistance to improve the quality of research results, ensuring more uniformity and comparability across studies, and synthesizing results across state and local level monitoring studies.

As in previous years, the welfare research, evaluation, and data projects planned for FY 2001 were designed to complement and enhance other efforts, both within and outside the federal government, to assess and monitor welfare outcomes without undue duplication. They include crosscutting topics, economic supports for poor families, children and youth, family formation, and special populations and local service delivery issues. Planned projects include continued support of secondary data analyses with national-level data sources to add to our understanding of the effects of welfare reform, and continued use of a variety of national surveys for analytical work focused on labor market and economic issues affecting low-income families with children, low-wage workers and the working poor. Our research plan also supports important Census Bureau data collection efforts, such as the Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the American Community Survey (ACS). We are hopeful that these wide-ranging activities will not only increase our understanding of the outcomes of low-income families, but also contribute to the Department's ability to respond to questions about those outcomes. Specific projects planned in each of the topic areas are described in Chapter III.

A recently released study by the National Research Council's Committee on National Statistics⁽²⁾ gave high marks to the Department for a welfare reform research agenda that "is impressive in scope, volume and diversity."⁽³⁾ The Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs found that the welfare research offices within the Department "have substantial agendas for welfare reform research and have supported much high quality work" and "the breadth of their activities is considerable." The report acknowledges that the Department "has sponsored and conducted many studies that extensively document trends in the low-income population, both adults and children, and in the welfare recipient population," and continues to say, "these are perhaps the best and most comprehensive monitoring studies." The panel also spoke favorably of the Department's efforts to build state data capacity and data comparability through its support of monitoring studies, such as studies of families leaving welfare.

However, the study has also highlighted some additional factors that need to be considered as the future direction of welfare research is contemplated. The report identifies some important data gaps and offers numerous conclusions and recommendations with respect to defining research questions and outcomes of interest for measuring the effects of welfare reform, as well as the appropriate methods for answering those questions and the data needed to carry out these evaluations. For example, the Panel concluded that:

• substantial improvements and enhancements of data, from national level surveys to state and local level administrative data, are needed to make them more useful for welfare research;
• the federal government should take the lead in defining and publicly articulating the key welfare reform research questions, populations and outcomes of interest to ensure that all questions are addressed;
• more work needs to be done to evaluate the effects of welfare reform, i.e., how has welfare reform changed the outcomes for families and individuals relative to what would have happened in the absence of reform.

The conclusions and recommendations in the Panel's report⁽⁴⁾ are designed to build up the "science base" of welfare reform research. Many of these issues are already being addressed by the Department in different ways. Some of them would have budgetary and legislative implications. Overall, we believe that our focus on creating an integrated picture of the low-income population, especially low-income families with children, combined with broader analyses of the economic condition, health and well-being, socio-demographic characteristics, and the social service needs of low-income individuals, families, and children, is consistent with the Panel's far-reaching recommendations. Nonetheless, the Panel's conclusions and recommendations will need to be studied and considered carefully by the Department as future welfare research plans are developed.

Organization of the Report

Chapter II summarizes the results and findings we have received from projects funded in FYs 1998, 1999, and 2000 that have not been reported in previous reports. Chapter III provides an overview of our FY 2001 research plan for welfare-outcomes funded projects. Chapter IV describes the current status and target completion dates of continuing projects funded by the targeted policy research appropriations in FYs 1998, 1999, and 2000. A listing of the Conclusions and Recommendations of the Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects on Changes in Social Welfare Programs is included in Appendix A. Appendix B includes a full discussion of administrative- and, where available, survey-data findings from the ASPE-funded grants to states and localities to study welfare leavers.

Chapter II: Findings/Results from Outcomes-Funded Projects

Many of the studies funded with the targeted Policy Research funds in Fiscal Years 1998, 1999 and/or 2000 are still on-going projects. However, several ASPE-funded studies, supported in whole or in part by the targeted Policy Research funds, have been completed or have released interim findings since our last report. Primary among them are findings from the National Academy of Sciences' Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs, the ASPE-funded grantees studying welfare leavers, several researcher-initiated grants to study welfare outcomes, and some other longer-term projects. This chapter includes both findings from completed projects and some interim results or products from continuing projects.

A substantial proportion of our prior years' welfare outcomes funding has been devoted to partnering with states and counties through grants to study the experiences of people who left the TANF program ("leavers") or were diverted from welfare. Another sizable portion of our FY 1999 and 2000 funding was used to support competitively selected researcher-initiated proposals to study a variety of welfare outcomes questions. Below are highlights of findings on leavers as well as more detailed findings from other projects, including very early findings from the diversion studies. Details of grantee findings on welfare leavers are included in Appendix B.

Highlights of Findings from ASPE-Funded Leavers Studies

All of the 1998 grantees and one of the 1999 grantees⁽¹⁾ studying welfare leavers have released reports⁽²⁾ based on linked administrative data sets that tracked families who left welfare. In addition, 12 of the 15 leavers grantees have released final reports that incorporate more detailed findings based on information gathered through follow-up surveys of samples of former recipients. Highlights from these reports are presented below, with a focus on outcomes in employment and earnings, recidivism and program participation, and household income and material hardship. Despite some methodological differences in study design (and a few outliers), these reports show a surprising amount of consistency among findings across sites and different TANF programs, particularly in the areas of employment and recidivism.

• Employment. About 60 percent of former recipients were working at any one time, with about 80 percent working at some point over the first year after exit from welfare. (Employment rates are slightly higher when based on survey data, and slightly lower according to administrative records, which do not capture all employment).

  In general, employed leavers tended to work 40 hours a week, when working, and typically earned between $6.50 and $9.00 an hour. Employment was intermittent, however, and median quarterly earnings of employed leavers ranged from $1,900 to $3,400 across the 15 studies in the first quarter after exit. Earnings rose in every location over the course of the year following exit.

• Recidivism. In most states, between 15 and 20 percent of leavers received cash welfare benefits in the fourth quarter after exit. The proportion that ever returned to cash assistance at some point during the first 12 months after exit was higher, ranging from 17 to 38 percent.

State and local reports showed a wider range of outcomes across the studies with respect to post-exit use of Medicaid and Food Stamps.

• Medicaid and Health Insurance. Rates of Medicaid enrollment varied across states, with enrollment among single-parent leavers in the first quarter after exit ranging from 42 to 80 percent of adults. In many areas, adult enrollment dropped 10 percentage points or more by the fourth quarter after exit. Child enrollment in Medicaid was consistently higher than adult enrollment according to both administrative and survey data.

  Only about one-fifth to one-third of leavers had employer-sponsored or other medical insurance, indicating that large numbers of leavers had no health insurance. The percentage of adult leavers without insurance ranged from 7 to 45 percent across nine states; uninsurance rates for children ranged from 8 to 33 percent.

• Food Stamps and Other Program Participation. Between one-third and one-half of leavers received Food Stamps in the first quarter after exit in most states, although rates ranged as low as 23 percent and as high as 76 percent in a few studies. Food stamp receipt declined in some states over time, but remained constant in others.

  Among studies that collected information on leavers' receipt of other program benefits, commonly received forms of government assistance included free school lunches, the federal Earned Income Tax Credit, and housing assistance.

Although household income is difficult to measure, eight studies provided information on household income. In addition, four studies estimated poverty rates, and all 12 studies with surveys gathered information on material hardship and family well-being.

• Household Income and Poverty Status. Average household cash income ranged from $964 to $1440 per month across eight studies. About half of this income was from the leavers' own earnings; the remainder was from various combinations of earnings of others in the household, cash assistance from Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and/or TANF, child support payments, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), and other income.

  Estimated poverty rates of families who left welfare ranged from 41 to 58 percent, depending in part on whether food stamps were included in measures of family income. Evidence from one study suggests that leavers had lower poverty rates and higher incomes than a sample of families remaining on welfare.

• Material Hardship and Family Well-Being. In general, many leavers experienced some hardship with respect to food, housing or medical problems after leaving welfare. For example, 13 to 52 percent of families reported some level of food shortages; 18 to 38 percent reported being behind on their rent, and 8 to 31 percent reported an inability to afford or get medical attention.

  Studies were split as to whether food and housing shortages were greater before or after exit from welfare. None of the studies reported a significant change in the use of homeless shelters before and after exit, or in experiences with separations of children from the family. When asked about overall economic well-being, between half and two-thirds of leavers in five studies reported being better off after leaving TANF than before leaving TANF.

In sum, findings across the 15 studies showed that about three-fifths of leavers were working, generally 40 hours per week. Former recipients experienced intermittent spells of unemployment and financial hardship, however, and about one-fourth to one-third returned to welfare at least once in the first year after exit in most states studied. Although quarterly earnings rose over time, total household incomes remained fairly low, averaging about $1,400 or less per month. Access to health insurance and food stamps appeared problematic for some recipients, and there also were reports of food shortages and inability to get needed medical attention. Evidence was mixed as to whether material hardships were greater before or after exit; families generally reported that they were better off overall after exit from welfare.

A more detailed synthesis of findings from ASPE-funded leavers studies is attached as Appendix B.

Research Findings from Completed Welfare Outcomes Funded Studies

National Academy of Sciences Panel Study on Welfare Outcomes (1998, 1999, and 2000)⁽³⁾

Appropriations conference report language accompanying the targeted welfare outcomes research funding for Fiscal Years 1998 and 1999 included the recommendation that the Department submit its research plan to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to receive guidance on research design and recommendations for further research. Accordingly, we provided over $1 million in Fiscal Year 1998, 1999 and 2000 funding to the NAS to convene an expert panel to evaluate current and future welfare reform research.

The Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs released an interim report in September 1999, Evaluating Welfare Reform: A Framework and Review of Current Work, Interim Report, which provided a framework for conducting evaluations of welfare program changes, reviewed current Departmental efforts to evaluate these changes, and provided the Panel's initial conclusions and recommendations. The short-run recommendations for welfare evaluation strategies were consistent with the Department's research on welfare reform, and many of the recommended steps were already being taken.

Findings from the Panel's final report, Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition, were released April 5, 2001. The report discussed how best to measure and track program eligibility, participation, child well-being, and other outcomes; data, research designs, and methods for the study of welfare reform outcomes; and needed areas and topics of research. The report also addressed alternative federal and state data sources, the limitations of currently available data, and appropriate evaluation design and methods for analysis. In brief, while the report applauded the Department for a welfare reform research agenda that "is impressive in scope, volume and diversity," it highlighted the need for further improvements and expansions in data collection, development of research questions, and methodological work, as shown in the recommendations below. Highlights of the Panel's recommendations follow.

Broad Data Issues

• The Department should continue and expand its efforts to build capacity for conducting high-quality program evaluations at the state level and for conducting household surveys of low-income and welfare populations.
• National-level surveys (such as the Current Population Survey) should be expanded or supplemented to measure the effects of changes in broad welfare program components across states. More resources should be devoted toward improving national household survey questions on program participation and benefit receipt to better measure program participation and benefit receipt.
• The American Community Survey should be fully implemented and currently proposed sample sizes sustained. More detailed questions on public assistance benefit and service receipt should be added to the survey questionnaire.
• Greater investments need be made to improve the usefulness of state-level administrative data. Steps should be taken by the Department, in conjunction with state social service agencies, to improve the comparability of administrative data across states. The Department should also take steps to improve the linkability of state administrative data and encourage states to report the full universe of cases.
• Expanded efforts should be taken to reduce the confidentiality, privacy, and access barriers to using and linking multiple administrative and survey data sets for welfare program monitoring and evaluations, while still protecting privacy and maintaining confidentiality.
• The federal government should ensure that high-quality and comparable data on human service and social welfare programs and populations are collected for purposes of monitoring the well-being of the low income population and evaluating the effects of welfare reform.
• The Department should identify or create an organizational entity with direct administrative responsibility and authority for carrying out statistical functions and data collection for social welfare programs and the populations they serve. The new statistical agency or unit should also coordinate data collection and analysis activities between states and the federal government.

Program Issues and Research Questions

• The Department should take the lead in defining the important questions to be addressed in welfare reform research and evaluation (with input from states, private foundations, and other stakeholders), and in producing a comprehensive evaluation framework for social welfare programs that considers the major questions of interest and the evaluation methods appropriate for each and guides private and public evaluation efforts.
• The Department should prepare an annual report to Congress, presenting a comprehensive list of the important questions to be addressed in welfare reform research and describing how those questions are being addressed in the overall landscape of welfare reform studies, including whether the appropriate balance of experimental and different nonexperimental methods is being achieved. The report should also review current availability and quality of data for welfare reform research, identify high priority data needs, and discuss the Department's research agenda for data development and technical assistance.
• The Department should consider broadening the current definition of assistance to include as many types of assistance and services provided as possible.
• The Department should take lead responsibility for documenting, publishing, and updating state and substate welfare program rules and policies.

Methodological Issues

• The Department should sponsor methodological research on nonexperimental evaluation methods, and process and implementation studies. The Panel also recommended more methodological research to assess and improve the credibility of the multiple cohort method (e.g., comparisons of early post-PRWORA leavers to later post-PRWORA leavers, comparisons of post-PRWORA leavers to pre-PRWORA leavers) of evaluating the overall effects of welfare reform.
• More emphasis should be placed on studies that compare current welfare leavers to those who left welfare prior to welfare reform and on studies of divertees, applicants, and nonapplicant eligibles. Further, a welfare dynamics perspective (examining patterns of entry and exit from welfare and the length of spells on welfare) should be incorporated into more welfare reform studies, including leaver studies.
• Experimental methods should be used more in future welfare policy evaluations to evaluate specific reform strategies and different individual broad components of TANF, along with further use of qualitative and ethnographic studies to complement other evaluation methods.
• The Department should take a proactive role in sponsoring experiments at the state and local levels and encourage planned variation and cross-state comparability to yield the maximum general knowledge. The Department also should assume responsibility for synthesizing findings from studies of the consequences of changes in welfare programs.

Copies of the forthcoming report are available through the Academy's website at <www.nas.edu>.

Research Grants on Welfare Outcomes (1999)

ASPE awarded approximately $807,000 in grants in FY 1999 to support seven researcher-initiated proposals to study important questions related to the outcomes of welfare reform. Through these grants, we supported efforts to analyze a variety of information about low-income individuals (both adults and children) and their families, including their economic and non-economic well-being and their participation in government programs. Final reports have been received from four of the grantees and are summarized below.

RAND Corporation: A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload: Insights from California's Economic Conditions (1999)

This technical study by researchers at the RAND Corporation examined the methods used in previous studies to explain changes in welfare caseloads in the context of economic expansion and major welfare policy changes. The authors modeled the welfare caseload (stock) as the net outcome of past flows onto and off assistance and explored the implications of such a stock-flow perspective for understanding the determinants of caseload size and its evolution over time. This methodology suggests that the economy has had a greater effect on caseload reduction than suggested by other economic models. Researchers found that approximately half the caseload decline in California could be attributed to the changing economic conditions as measured by the unemployment rate.

Resources for Human Development, Inc.: An Evaluation of Six Welfare-to-Work Programs in Philadelphia (1999)

Resources for Human Development, Inc. (RHD) is a large community agency in Philadelphia that operates six Welfare-to-Work (WtW) programs, which are designed to assist hard-to-serve TANF recipients and their families. The study, completed in November 2000, found that:

• Employed WtW participants reported much higher overall quality of life than unemployed participants.
• Most study members were in poverty or near-poverty before and after WtW participation.
• Child care and transportation support services were heavily utilized by WtW participants.
• WtW interventions were relatively short in duration - 4 to 8 weeks - and most working participants did not perceive the jobs they got as being related to their long-term career goals.
• There appeared to be a significant drop in job retention between the end of training and the 6-month follow-up.
• Tracked families showed few indications of changes in family stability over the period of their WtW involvement.
• WtW participants reported very little involvement with community organizations such as church and school.

SPHERE Institute: Caseload Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Implications for Welfare Policy (1999)

This study built on research the SPHERE Institute conducted under contract with the Public Policy Institute of California to model caseload dynamics using aggregate county caseload counts. It explored the role of economic conditions and caseload characteristics on the role of program performance in California. The author examined cash aid recidivism and the take-up of other forms of assistance by welfare leavers in California. Three separate cohorts of families were tracked - those leaving welfare in 1988, 1993, and 1998 - for a period of 18 months following their exit from the program. Outcomes for the 1998 cohort were compared across different regions of California. Key findings from the report are:

• Recidivism is lower among recent welfare leavers;
• The take-up rate of non-assistance food stamps remains low;
• Enrollment in Medi-Cal (Medicaid) is much higher among recent welfare leavers;
• Welfare recidivism is highest in rural California;
• Non-assistance food stamps take-up rate is highest in rural California.

University of Kentucky Research Foundation: The Impacts and Outcomes of Welfare Reform across Rural and Urban Places in Kentucky (1999)

This study by the University of Kentucky Research Foundation examined the impact of the differential spatial distribution of economic opportunities on the outcomes of current and former AFDC/TANF recipients, including employment and earnings. Findings indicated that patterns of assistance, such as the length of time on TANF and the rate of entry into TANF, reflect urban/rural differences as well as differences across rural areas. Compared to the rest of the state, the rate of caseload decline was lowest in the most remote rural areas.

University of Michigan School of Social Work: Work and Well-Being among Welfare Leavers and Stayers (1999)

This project used data from the Women's Employment Survey (WES) to examine the impacts of welfare reform on economic outcomes as well as on measures of non-economic well-being among specific subgroups of recipients, such as racial minorities and women exposed to domestic violence. WES is a longitudinal data set tracking single mother welfare recipients in an urban Michigan county. Three reports analyzing data from 1997 and 1998 waves of the WES have been released. The first one examines the association of health, mental health, and domestic violence problems with employment, and finds that women who reported depression and serious physical limitations worked less. The second report examines associations between employment and changes in health status, and finds that women who were physically less healthy were also more likely to suffer from major depression. With the exception of a decline in the rate of depression, there was little overall change in the health status of the women during the study period. The third report focuses on domestic violence, and finds that women who had recent and persistent experiences with domestic violence were more likely to suffer from economic hardship than women who had not.

The Urban Institute: Living Arrangements, Work, and Welfare Decisions Among Single Mothers (1999)

This report by the Urban Institute examined the factors affecting single mothers' living arrangements and how these arrangements affect single mothers' decisions regarding work and welfare. The study found that single mothers who live with their parents are less likely to rely on welfare than those who live independently. Living with parents also increased the likelihood that a single mother worked or attended school. When single mothers who live independently are compared with those living with adults other than parents or partners, there is no difference in their welfare and work choices. The authors suggest that policies aimed at encouraging single mothers to live with their parents may reduce welfare use and increase work effort among single mothers.

Follow-up on the Wisconsin Project for Tracking Former Welfare Recipients (1999)

In fiscal year 1997, ASPE funded the University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP) to conduct an administrative data study of the outcomes of families who left AFDC in Wisconsin during 1995. In this 1999 follow-up study, the Institute tracked the outcomes for women in the first study further and the outcomes of a second group of women who left AFDC closer to the time of implementation of Wisconsin Works (known as W-2, Wisconsin's replacement for AFDC, which was implemented in the fourth quarter, 1997). As in the original project, the continuation analysis used linked administrative data from the state including: (1) AFDC data, food stamp data, and Medicaid data from the Client Assistance for Re-Employment and Economic Support administrative database (CARES), and (2) earnings and employment data from the Unemployment Insurance records database (UI).

The final report, Before and After TANF: The Utilization of Noncash Public Benefits by Women Leaving Welfare in Wisconsin, used analyses of linked state administrative data to examine food stamp receipt and Medicaid coverage among mother-headed families who stopped receiving cash welfare assistance for at least two months beginning in the last quarter of 1995 or 1997. The main findings from the study include:

• Over 80 percent of women in both cohorts had at least some earnings during the first quarter after leaving welfare; women in the second cohort, however, were somewhat less likely to be employed in all four quarters after exit compared to women in the earlier cohort.
• Eighty-one percent of those who left in 1997 received food stamps during the first year after leaving, compared to 58 percent of the earlier cohort.
• Ninety-two percent of cases that closed in 1997 received Medicaid within 12 months after exit, compared to 80 percent of those who left in 1995.
• For both cohorts, take-up rates among eligibles for food stamps and Medicaid declined over the 12-month period after welfare exit. While 89 percent of eligibles in the 1997 cohort received Medicaid one quarter after exit, the percentage dropped to 82 percent four quarters after exit.
• Women who worked while still receiving cash welfare were more likely to receive noncash benefits after exit than those not working while on welfare. In addition, women with more months of cash welfare receipt prior to exit were also more likely to receive food stamps and Medicaid after exit.
• Those who left in 1997 faced greater barriers to work (e.g., lower levels of education, more children, very young children) and had substantially lower earnings and income after leaving cash welfare compared to the 1995 cohort.

In addition to pre- and post-TANF cohort comparisons, the study also examined the longer-term outcomes (i.e., three years after exit) of those women who left cash welfare in 1995. The following main points emerge from this analysis:

• Food stamp participation declined over the longer time period. For those who left cash welfare in 1995, 40 percent of those eligible received food stamps in the third year after exit, compared to 60 percent in the first year after exit.
• Medicaid participation also declined over the three-year follow-up for the 1995 cohort. While 80 percent of those eligible received Medicaid in the first year after exit, the percentage dropped to 52 percent in the third year after exit.

The Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP) issued the final report as an IRP Special Report in Spring 2001; further information on the study can be found at <www.ssc.wisc.edu>.

The Working Poor Population: Data Analysis on Definitions, Composition and Outcomes (1999)

ASPE undertook a data project to create a set of data files to be used for comparing different definitions of the working poor population based on variations in the definitions of worker, family, the poverty threshold, and total income. The project, conducted by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. (MPR), used data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) that allow analysts to vary the definition of poverty threshold to include several of the alternative definitions for poverty measurement proposed by the National Academy of Sciences⁽⁴⁾. ASPE received data reports outlining the composition of the working poor population under different working poor definitions as well as cleaned and documented ASCII (plain text) data files to be used for further analysis and exploration. The resulting data files facilitate comparisons across working poor groups based on multiple definitions and lay the groundwork for future research on alternative poverty definitions and improved understanding of the characteristics of working poor families. MPR will be issuing an additional SIPP data extract file that includes additional poverty measurement variations.

Welfare Reform in Rural Labor Markets (formerly Rural Working Poor) (1999)

This project estimates the impact of welfare reform on rural and small metropolitan regions since 1993. The report examines 12 rural and small metropolitan regions across the country. It identifies changes in wages and employment for the low-skill labor force over two periods: 1993 to 1996, and 1996 to 1998. The report finds that rural and small metropolitan labor markets easily absorbed welfare recipients who went to work, largely because the economy was experiencing strong growth. The number of new jobs was much greater than the number of welfare recipients who started to work. Wages for low-skill workers declined from 1993 to 1996 in 8 of the 12 regions, but recovered in the second period, from 1996 to 1998. There was little evidence of workers being displaced from their jobs by welfare recipients.

Research Design Framework for the FPLS Database (2000)

The Federal Parent Locator Service (FPLS) contains the complete national quarterly wage (unemployment insurance and federal employment) and new hire databases as well as registry of child support cases. It provides extensive opportunities for doing welfare and child support research using data from these records. The legislation governing the FPLS stipulates that the data contained in the system must be removed after two (2) years, but allows the creation of research samples which endure past that point. ASPE and ACF retained Social and Scientific Systems to propose design options for a research framework for such samples, which includes matching samples of cases in the system with other administrative data systems in order to get socio-demographic characteristics and program participation data for the samples.

The first step in this project was an analysis of recommended avenues of research using the FPLS. After conducting a series of consultations with prominent researchers around the county, a wide range of research opportunities were identified in a report released in May 2000. Research questions ranged from those that could be answered using only the FPLS database to those that could be answered by linking federal databases such as the TANF database, the Medicaid Statistical Information System (MSIS), or the Child Care Information System to those that required geographic-specific or state policy information in addition to the FPLS.

TANF-related research issues that could be addressed with data from the FPLS or a combined HHS database include characteristics of TANF leavers and TANF entrants over time; participation by TANF leavers in the child support enforcement (IV-D), unemployment insurance (UI), and Medicaid programs; and the relationship between Medicaid receipt, TANF receipt, and earnings.

Some of the child support research issues that could be addressed with data from the FPLS or a combined HHS database include variation in custodial and noncustodial parent employment and earnings based on order and paternity establishment, interaction between the receipt of public assistance (e.g., Medicaid, TANF) and child support order establishment and receipt, speed of order establishment, variation in custodial and noncustodial parent residence over time, and employment and earnings characteristics of noncustodial parents relative to custodial parents over time.

The second part of this project was a report proposing three database design options: 1) a unified welfare and child support research database centered on the MSIS that links in the FPLS and the TANF database; 2) a welfare research database centered around the TANF database, supplemented with FPLS and MSIS data; and 3) a child support research database centered around the Federal Case Registry, enhanced by linking to TANF database or the MSIS. These data provide extensive opportunities to conduct longitudinal welfare and child support operations monitoring, policy development, and research, and to look at the interaction between public programs. For example, an integrated database could tell us about interaction between the receipt of public assistance (e.g., TANF, Medicaid) and child support order establishment. An intra-agency work group has been convened by ACF to assess the proposed options.

Support for Use of NDNH for Welfare Outcomes Research (2000)

Through an interagency agreement with the ACF's Office of Child Support Enforcement (OCSE), ASPE provided funds to support statistical research using matched new hire and quarterly wage data from the files of the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) database. Use of NDNH data improves the quality of the information on employment outcomes, because this database captures employment in other jurisdictions, and with the federal government, which do not appear in state Unemployment Insurance records. ASPE funds supported programming time and other one-time infrastructure costs related to linkages between the NDNH data and samples drawn for research projects, such as the ASPE-funded grants to study welfare outcomes of former TANF recipients. OCSE performed this match for the District of Columbia, one of ASPE's FY 1998 welfare outcome grantees, and other grantees are considering requesting additional matches. (A link to the District's report, The Status of TANF Leavers in the District of Columbia, Final Report, is available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/reports.htm#dc.>)

Conference on Developing Public Policy Applications with the American Community Survey and Local Administrative Records (2000)

Broad-based population data are essential to studying the well-being of the low-income population. The American Community Survey (ACS) is a new Census Bureau program that will make regular intercensal estimates of the distribution of characteristics of households, families and persons in small areas such as census tracts and for small population groups (for example, specific Asian or Hispanic nationality groups, specific age groups, and so forth). The ACS is currently being conducted in 31 diverse sites across the country. The Census Bureau expects to fully implement the survey in every county starting in 2003. ASPE and the Bureau of the Census jointly sponsored a conference on June 6-7, 2000, which convened a group of researchers, policy makers and local practitioners to explore the potential uses of this new data source and to explore the development of econometric models that combine ACS data with local area administrative data and local business economic data to provide local area data. A conference summary report and the conferees' recommendations are available from the Bureau of the Census.

Research Findings from Continuing Welfare Outcomes Funded Studies

Preliminary Findings from Grants to States and Localities to Study Welfare Reform Outcomes, with an Emphasis on TANF Applicants and Diversion (1999)

While the majority of ASPE-funded studies of TANF applicants and divertees are still in the data collection or analysis stage, some preliminary findings are available. The grantees that have either released reports or gathered preliminary data include: Florida, Illinois, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, and the two consortia of counties in the Bay Area of California. A more complete picture of the circumstances of families who have applied for TANF will emerge throughout the coming months, as more findings from these studies become available. However, a few themes have emerged. First, based on data that have been reported to date, divertees and TANF applicants appear to be worse off, on average, than individuals and families leaving TANF. Fewer applicants are employed in the months following application, and applicants are more likely to rely on government assistance such as food stamps, Medicaid, and TANF. While these findings are preliminary, they are not surprising, as one would expect that individuals who are applying for TANF would have more economic difficulties than those who are leaving cash welfare. Second, the "applicant" population is harder to locate than the leavers population. While the typical ASPE-funded leavers study achieved response rates of 70 to 75 percent, most of the surveys of TANF applicants and divertees have been able to obtain responses from only about 55 to 60 percent of the sample. Finally, it will be even more difficult to make cross-state comparisons across these studies than among studies of TANF leavers. In both sets of studies, grantees had significant discretion over their research questions and construction of their surveys. However, while studies of TANF leavers used a common definition of leaver (as those who left TANF and remained off the rolls for at least two months), the definitions of "applicant" or "diverted" populations vary considerably by grantee, making comparisons across the studies more difficult.

Devolution and Urban Change (2000)

The Project on Devolution and Urban Change being conducted by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation (MDRC), is an on-going, multi-disciplinary, longitudinal study that examines the implementation and effects of welfare reform in four large urban areas — Cleveland, OH; Philadelphia, PA; Los Angeles, CA; and Miami, FL. The project brings together data from many sources: longitudinal administrative data for families dating back to 1992, survey data, an implementation study, neighborhood indicators, an institutional study focusing on local service providers, and an ethnographic study of families. This multi-component approach allows researchers, in the absence of experimental data, to capture effects that might be missed using only one approach, and to improve understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. The project is co-funded by numerous foundations, DHHS and USDA. Two reports have been released this year. A project description and links to all publications from the Urban Change project are available at:  <http://www.mdrc.org/WelfareReform/UrbanChange.htm>.

Post-TANF Food Stamp and Medicaid Benefits: Factors that Aid or Impede Their Receipt (January 2001). This paper focuses on practices in welfare offices in the four cities to understand reasons for the decline in Food Stamp and Medicaid participation that occurred nationally between Fiscal Years 1996 and 1999. The study, which was conducted in early 2000, found that:

• Welfare staff did not routinely inform recipients early on that, when they became employed, they were likely to be eligible for transitional Medicaid and possibly food stamps as well.
• Many welfare recipients left welfare for work without informing the welfare agency; they would simply fail to attend their next eligibility redetermination appointments at which point their cash assistance, food stamps and Medicaid benefits would be terminated.
• On those occasions when a welfare recipient did let her worker know that she had found a job, the agency worker was likely to take necessary steps to ensure her continued receipt of Medicaid and (if eligible) food stamps.

Since this study was conducted, both the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)/ DHHS (formerly the Health Care Financing Administration) and USDA have taken steps to address these problems by improving information and removing some of the administrative hurdles for working families.

Social Service Organizations and Welfare Reform (February 2001). This report examines the knowledge, views, experiences, and expectations about welfare reform among staff in community-based organizations in urban neighborhoods with large concentrations of welfare recipients. The agencies included churches, small grassroots organizations, and larger established organizations. They provided various services including education and employment preparation, basic needs, child care, school and youth services, and health care.

• The majority of agencies had very sketchy information about welfare reform and lacked knowledge about specifics of welfare policies. Agencies tended to express either mixed (62 percent) or negative (27 percent) views of welfare reform. These views were quite consistent across sites and types of agencies.
• Changes in the demand for education and training services have been the biggest effect of welfare reform. Whether demand increased or decreased depended partly on state and local welfare policies and how they were implemented, e.g., a greater emphasis on job search over education and training. Many agencies are planning to change their services/curriculum to accommodate the new needs arising from welfare reform.
• Most basic needs organizations did not report increases in demand for food or emergency services due to welfare reform. Nor have they seen increases in private donations. However several of Cleveland's basic needs agencies reported notable increases and they believe these are tied to a rise in TANF sanctions.
• There was some evidence of an increase in need for child care, but the child care agencies were already operating at capacity so enrollment levels did not change. Some expected to expand service hours to accommodate working parents.

Welfare Reform and the Health and Economic Status of Immigrants and the Organizations that Serve Them (1998, 1999, and 2000)

The Kaiser Family Foundation released a research report in April entitled Caring for Immigrants: Health Care Safety Nets in Los Angeles, New York, Miami and Houston, which documents the results of a study conducted by the Urban Institute and sponsored jointly by the Kaiser Family Foundation and various federal agencies - including DHHS, the U. S. Department of Agriculture and the Immigration and Naturalization Service of the Department of Justice. Several reports already have been issued under this project. A final report is expected by the Fall of 2001. Kaiser publications on immigrant health policy can be found at <http://www.kff.org/content/2001/2241>.

Major findings include:

• Low-income immigrants' access to health care services has become more tenuous since welfare reform was enacted. Some health care providers believe that Medicaid participation has begun to climb more recently. Data from the March 2000 Current Population Survey indicate that nationally the noncitizen Medicaid participation rate increased slightly between 1998 and 1999, although the participation level remained lower than in 1995.
• In each site, health care safety net providers (e.g., public hospitals and health clinics) reported that they were losing Medicaid patients and revenue while the number of uninsured patients was rising. Reasons beyond immigrant eligibility changes were identified (e.g., broader reductions in Medicaid caseloads, new requirements under Medicaid managed care, and general competition in the health care marketplace).
• Immigrants appear to have shifted increasingly to obtaining care from health safety net providers that offer free or reduced-price care. Immigrants also have delayed or avoided medical care and turned to alternative, sometimes underground, health care providers for services.
• Although the responses in each site varied, the state and/or local governments and health providers assumed additional responsibilities and costs in response to federal restrictions.
• Language difficulties faced by immigrants with limited English capabilities were viewed as a major barrier to obtaining medical care and a serious threat to medical care quality.

Endnotes

1.  Grants were awarded in FY 1998 to ten states and three large counties or consortia of counties (Arizona, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin; and Cuyahoga County, Ohio, Los Angeles County, California, and San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Santa Clara Counties, California). Separate but comparable studies were also funded in Iowa (with FY 1999 funding) and South Carolina (in FY 1998 and 2000, as part of a longer-term project) resulting in a total of 15 studies with findings on former recipients as of spring 2001.

2.  Links to reports from the ASPE-funded "leavers" grants to states and counties can be found at:  <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/index.htm>.

3.  Dates in parentheses following the title of each project identify the Fiscal Year(s) in which the study was funded.

4.  In May 1995, in a report (Measuring Poverty: A New Approach) responding to a 1990 Congressional request, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Panel on Poverty and Family Assistance proposed a new approach for developing an official poverty measure for the United States, although it did not propose a specific set of dollar figures. The panel argued that the current poverty measure has weaknesses both in the implementation of the threshold concept and in the definition of family resources; that changing social and economic conditions over the last three decades have made these weaknesses more obvious and more consequential; and that, as a result, the current measure does not accurately reflect differences in poverty across populations and across time.

Chapter III: Projects Proposed to be Funded by the FY 2001 Appropriation to Study Welfare Outcomes

Introduction

The Office of Human Services Policy's (HSP) FY 2001 Research and Evaluation Plan is generally consistent with last year's funding level, with over half of the projects funded by the targeted welfare outcomes policy research funds. Our research, evaluation, and data projects will be critical to continuing to understand the outcomes of low-income families and to the Department's ability to respond to questions about those outcomes. Our research plan is loosely organized around the following broad topical areas:

• Crosscutting/Multi-Topic
• Economic Support for Poor Families
• Children and Youth
• Family Formation
• Special Populations and Local Service Delivery Issues

As has been the case in the past, our plan is to optimize the potential of our research and evaluation funding by creating a portfolio of studies and strategies. Careful attention has been paid to identifying on-going research, evaluation, and data activities which could be enhanced or modified and to identifying activities being funded or planned by other entities that might provide joint-funding opportunities. Our research agenda is developed and carried out with a full understanding of other efforts, both within and outside the federal government, to assess and monitor various outcomes. We propose to use our research and evaluation funding to fully fund some projects, to fund specific portions of some larger studies, and to co-fund with other federal and state partners yet other projects. This ensures that, to the fullest extent possible, our research complements and enhances other efforts while avoiding unnecessary duplication.

Following are descriptions of the projects ASPE plans to fund in FY 2001 from the targeted appropriation to study welfare outcomes. Some of these projects could be modified or cancelled; other welfare outcomes-funded projects could be added.

Crosscutting/Multi-topic Areas

Building and enhancing state and local capacity for data collection and monitoring studies remains integral to HSP's efforts. We plan to continue supporting state-level data collection efforts, administrative data linking, and the creation of public-use and restricted-access data files. We also hope to continue to play an important role in facilitating efforts to build data collection and research capacities, provide technical assistance to improve the quality of research results, ensure more uniformity and comparability across studies, and synthesize results across state and local level monitoring studies. The following new projects and continuation efforts are included in our FY 2001 plan:

State Studies on TANF Caseload

The project will fund several state or local area studies of the characteristics of the TANF caseload including potential barriers to employment that welfare recipients may face. The studies will focus on the current TANF caseload at a given point in time and will thus include both recipients who have entered recently and those who have remained on welfare for a longer period of time. States competing for funding will be asked to conduct surveys on a sample of the current caseload to gather information about recipients' characteristics at the personal, family and community level. Topics to be covered may include: (1) demographic characteristics; (2) employment and economic outcomes; and (3) potential barriers to employment and self-sufficiency, including personal barriers (e.g., physical or mental health problems), family barriers (e.g., children with disabilities, domestic violence), and community barriers. To improve the comparability of survey data collection efforts, states will be encouraged to use a standardized survey instrument across the studies. States will also be asked to augment their survey data with administrative data to examine changes over time in recipient characteristics and welfare utilization. Dependent upon specific state interests, additional administrative data analysis is also possible. States will be encouraged to compare characteristics of recipients and barriers to employment across different subgroups, such as short-term and long-term recipients or employed and non-employed recipients.

Survey Development for State Studies on TANF Caseload

This project will develop a standardized telephone survey instrument to be used in our State Studies on TANF Caseload project (described above) and provide technical assistance for this project. The contractor will develop this survey instrument based on the review of several existing instruments including, but not limited to, the Women's Employment Survey (WES), the National Survey of America's Families (NSAF), the Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD), the Mathematica Policy Research Caseload Survey, and TANF "leavers" surveys from Missouri and Alameda County. The developed survey will likely consist of a common core set of questions to be administered in all states receiving awards through the caseload state studies project and a series of short (approximately 5 minutes) special topic modules among which states can choose depending on their specific research interests. The contractor will also be responsible for clearing the newly developed instrument with the Office of Management and Budget and providing technical assistance, including two grantee meetings, to those states receiving awards.

The Characteristics and Service Needs of Families Receiving TANF

This project will fund the analysis of data being collected as part of a pilot study being carried out by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Non-ASPE funds are being used to design the study, develop the survey instrument, collect survey data, and collate TANF administrative data on a sample of families receiving TANF assistance in one state. The analysis will provide a snapshot of the characteristics of families, barriers which they may face to achieving self-sufficiency, and the services they need and have received. In addition, the analysis plan for this pilot project will help to inform the analysis of our multi-state TANF families characteristics project.

Small Grant Program on Use of HHS-Sponsored Data Sets

Over a dozen new HHS-sponsored administrative and survey databases will be coming online over the next several months. Secondary analyses of new databases will increase our understanding of the outcomes of welfare reform. These databases include data from the ASPE-supported National Evaluation of Welfare to Work Strategies (NEWWS) and state and local welfare leaver studies. This program will provide dissertation grants to students to explore aspects of welfare reform using the HHS-sponsored data sets. The grants will also build capacity by encouraging younger scholars to undertake welfare-related research. Furthermore, the grants will encourage the use of state-specific surveys and administrative data.

Researcher Initiated Grants on Welfare Outcomes

In FYs 1999 and 2000 ASPE funded researcher-initiated grants on various aspects of welfare reform outcomes. Topics were nominated by applicants and selected competitively. We are continuing this grant program and will be supporting research and secondary data analysis efforts covering a variety of information about adults, children, and families, including economic and non-economic well-being and participation in government programs. This grant program will result in policy-relevant research that will further our understanding of how children and families are faring since the introduction of welfare reform. Our intention is to support analyses of information from a variety of sources about economic conditions, health and well-being, socio-demographic characteristics, and the social service needs of low-income individuals, families, and children.

Economic Supports for Poor Families

There is a strong interest in understanding the effects of welfare reform within the context of the devolution of responsibility for major social programs from the federal government to the states. Questions about the implementation and outcomes of welfare reform are legion and encompass a broad range of interests and perspectives. The Department acted early to create a research, evaluation and data strategy that would assure that the implementation of welfare reform and its effects would be documented. The continued infusion of Policy Research funding dedicated to studying welfare outcomes has been and will continue to be invaluable to our efforts to add to and enhance the information that will be available to the Department, Congress, and other interested parties in upcoming debates about future directions for welfare reform. The following new projects and continuation efforts are included in our FY 2001 plan:

Demonstration and Evaluation of Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ

State and local agencies are making substantial investments through TANF and other sources to help low income families with demonstrated difficulty entering and sustaining employment. There is a significant amount of activity and a variety of approaches being used to help low-income parents address or cope with the personal and family problems that interfere with their employment stability. ACF and ASPE will support a multi-site evaluation of programs working with hard-to-employ low-income parents in order to identify effective strategies for promoting employment and family well-being and to determine the effects of such programs on employment, earnings, income, welfare dependence, family functioning, and the well-being of children. The contractor will design and conduct a multi-site evaluation that studies the implementation issues, net impact, and benefit-costs of selected programs. During the first year, the contractor will assist HHS in identifying and recruiting programs with potential for evaluation and will assist selected programs in strengthening or expanding services to meet requisite conditions for rigorous evaluation.

Support for Working Families and Their Children

ASPE will support a National Governors' Association project to build state and local capacity to provide work supports which help low-income working parents sustain employment and advance in the labor market as well as increase positive family functioning and child well-being. The project is designed to make these kinds of supports for low-income working families a central and primary objective within existing or developed entities (e.g. one-stop career centers). Specific activities would include brief case studies of existing projects and convening a roundtable of state/local partners interested in further development of projects along these lines. DOL/ETA and USDA/ERS are also expected to provide funding for this project.

Measures of Short-Term Educational Attainment

ASPE will be one of several agencies participating in this project to develop survey questions around nondegree educational attainment. Currently, many national surveys measure whether a person has a high school diploma, two-year, four-year or graduate degree, but fail to capture nondegree programs, for example, a ten month certificate in home health service. These funds will be used for development and cognitive testing of questions on nondegree educational attainment that could eventually be incorporated into national surveys. The availability of such data would greatly enhance research and inform policy around labor market outcomes for current, former and potential TANF recipients. Our work on this project would be in conjunction with ASPE's membership on The Committee on Measures of Educational Attainment, chartered by the Interagency Council on Statistical Policy.

Measures of Family Hardship

Although a number of national and state surveys have begun gathering measures of family hardship (e.g., utility cutoffs, inability to get needed medical attention, food insecurity, evictions), it is hard to respond to Congressional interest in gathering information on a state-by-state basis, given the small sample size of most national surveys and the lack of comparability across state surveys. One long-term option is to add material hardship questions to a supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) and administer the supplement three times, to gather state-by-state estimates over a multi-year time-period, as has been done for the Food Security Supplement. This project would explore the feasibility of this and other long-term options. It would include a review of questions included in national surveys and state studies, an options paper for moving toward state-level estimates, a one-day meeting to consider these issues, and a set of recommended questions on material hardship.

Project on Devolution and Urban Change

ASPE will provide continuing support to the Project on Devolution and Urban Change. This ongoing project studies impacts of welfare reform and welfare to work programs on low-income individuals, families, and the communities in which they live, in four large urban areas — Cleveland, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Miami. ACF/HHS and ERS/USDA have joined ASPE in funding this project for the past two years. The federal contribution to this project leverages a substantial investment by foundations, which are funding the majority of the over $20 million project cost.

FPLS Research Database Construction

PRWORA authorized HHS to retain data from the Federal Parent Locator Service (FPLS) for TANF and child support enforcement research purposes. This is a rich source of wage and employment data, but does not include key program participation and demographic variables. Previously, ASPE, OCSE, and OPRE funded consultations with researchers and policymakers, resulting in a report proposing three design options for a research database which would combine FPLS data with other HHS data to give a comprehensive and continuing picture of the low income population. The Department is currently assessing these options. This project would implement the chosen database design by constructing a research database for Department use and perhaps putting together public use data files.

Linking State TANF Policies to Outcomes

In FY 2000, ASPE issued a task order to the Urban Institute to analyze and synthesize available information on state welfare and related support policies and assess which characteristics of state programs or background characteristics are most significant in predicting outcomes. As part of this project, Urban convened a technical work group (TWG) of researchers to make recommendations on which existing typologies were most promising and on directions for analysis. The TWG recommended that Urban develop new typologies, rather than modifying existing typologies, and suggested that cluster and factor analysis be used to determine which policies were most significant in differentiating between different packages of state policy choices. In order to carry out these recommendations, the task order will need to be modified and additional resources provided.

Support for the Research Forum on Children, Families, and the New Federalism Database and Web Site

This project supports the National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP) Research Forum database and web site. The web site is designed to provide the most reliable information to key stakeholders, including researchers, policymakers, administrators, and practitioners concerning welfare reform interventions being tested; populations and geographic areas being assessed; research methods being used; major findings already available; and when future findings will be released. The data base and web site provide valuable information useful to Federal officials and other practitioners regarding research and demonstration initiatives related to welfare reform and the well-being of low-income children and families.

South Carolina Welfare Outcomes Grant

This project provides the final year commitment to support a multi-year effort by South Carolina's Office of Budget and Control Board's Office of Research and Statistics to link administrative data and additional data from surveys of former welfare recipients and those diverted from cash assistance. The funds are provided through an ACF cooperative agreement and will allow South Carolina to continue its contract for the expansion of the follow-up studies.

Panel Study of Income Dynamics: Core Support and Expanded Sample for Child Supplement

This project continues ASPE's on-going core support for the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. ASPE funds provide partial support for the continued collection and processing of longitudinal data relevant to research on economic factors and income support mechanisms, health, fertility, medical care and disability affecting the poor and the elderly. ASPE funds will continue to support an expansion of the set of welfare related questions to assess the effects that recent reforms have on the extent to which families come on TANF (entry effects). In addition, there is a one time supplement to support an expanded sample of low income families with children for core data collection activities related to the Child Supplement.

Children and Youth

Our strategy in the children and youth area focuses on early childhood, youth, and children's services systems. Policy areas of interest include improving our understanding of early childhood education, promotion of youth development and prevention of teen risk behaviors, and the examination of child protection and child welfare service systems. The following new projects and continuation efforts are included in our FY 2001 plan:

Improving State Child and Youth Indicators of Health and Well-being

As a complement to work on national indicators, ASPE sponsored an initiative to assist 14 states in developing and monitoring indicators of the health and well-being of children and youth as changes occur in welfare and other key policy areas. The 14 states are interested in additional opportunities to advance their work, particularly in the area of youth indicators. Other states are interested in learning from the progress of the 14 states. There are several national research initiatives which have been focusing on improving youth outcomes measures in population-based surveys and for program evaluation purposes. This project will bring these various efforts together. It will develop a summary of the state indicator initiative, create an inventory of the major national and state efforts to improve youth measures, design a meeting that will enable new states to learn from the indicator states, and identify the best opportunities for HHS to assist states in the future.

Welfare Reform and Children

The vast majority of TANF recipients are children. In 1999, over 5 million children received TANF assistance while approximately 2 million of their parents did. One third of all TANF cases are "child-only," wherein assistance goes only to children. The federal government spends $16 billion a year on TANF, more than on the traditional "children's programs" of Head Start, child care and all child welfare programs combined. However, while some experimental studies of welfare to work programs have measured outcomes for children, broader discussions of welfare policies and changes are rarely framed around issues for children. As we approach the reauthorization of TANF, the question of how children are affected by welfare policies is one of the most critical issues for policymakers to address. This project would result in an issue paper about the implications of changes in a broad range of welfare-related policies, including TANF and child support, for children of various ages and the systems that serve them. The paper will review the range of issues relevant to children and welfare reform, summarize evidence, and identify data gaps and important questions for policymakers and researchers to consider.

Project on Child Outcomes: Enhancing Measurement of Child Outcomes in State Welfare Evaluations and Other State Data Collections

With other federal and private funders, ASPE and ACF are working with states to improve measurement of child health and well-being outcomes in state welfare evaluations. Continuation funding will be provided for states to receive research technical assistance on collecting survey data using the common core of instruments, using administrative data sources, and developing and coordinating data analysis and reporting strategies. A focus of this year's work will be the production of a synthesis of the findings from three of the states. The research technical assistance is provided by the NICHD Research Network on Family and Child Well-Being and conducted by Child Trends.

Family Formation

Our strategy in the family formation area is to better understand family structure and functioning. In particular there is increased emphasis on fertility, family composition and well-being, including poverty and health insurance status. While there are encouraging indications that trends in these areas are improving, there remain reasons for concern. For example, the incidence of out-of-wedlock childbearing and the rates of child poverty and uninsurance are still high. We started last year looking more at the impact of welfare reform on marriage and its impact on the living arrangements of children. We will also continue to focus on looking at how parents are fulfilling their economic and emotional responsibilities to their families. The following new projects and continuation efforts are included in our FY 2001 plan:

Describing State Initiatives to Promote and Support Marriage

One of the stated goals of TANF is to "end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits by promoting job preparation, work and marriage." While researchers and policy makers have focused substantial attention on increasing labor market participation among TANF recipients and the caseload declines that have followed, there has been far less focus on efforts to promote marriage. This proposed project will examine efforts at the state and local level specifically aimed at promoting and supporting marriage. The project would begin by taking an inventory of state and local policies and programs that promote and support marriage, looking at those programs associated with TANF as well as other programs. This information will be gathered through a variety of information sources, including list-serves such as Smartmarriages, a survey of existing documentation at the state and local level, and interviewers with key people knowledgeable about policy developments around the country related to marriage. The second aspect of the project will be a literature review of recent findings on the effects of marriage from sources such as Linda Wait's "The Case for Marriage." This literature will focus not only on the findings, but also on the methodological strengths and limitations of the research.

Synthesis of Literature on Family Composition and Resource Sharing

Welfare reform's effects on family formation and composition as well as how such changes can affect the financial resources and material well-being of members of low-income households are issues of strong interest to policy makers. Through a literature review, this project will document what is currently known about the effects of welfare policies on family formation and resource sharing. The review will provide an overview of existing research across disciplines (e.g. anthropology, sociology and economics). The study will also summarize key data sources on this issue (e.g., SIPP, CPS, NLSY, SPD, National Survey of America's Families, National Survey of Family Growth) and their strengths and weaknesses for investigating family composition and household resource and well-being issues.

Follow-up Work on Minnesota Family Investment Program Evaluation

Recently released findings based upon a small sample from the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation's (MDRC) evaluation of the Minnesota Family Investment Program suggest that the program had significant positive impacts on the marital stability of two-parent families. MDRC plans to conduct a follow-up study of all two-parent recipient families in the sample to determine if the robustness of their findings can be replicated in the larger sample. This work is a necessary first step before a decision is made about conducting a longer-term follow-up analysis of well-being outcomes for these families. Initially, ASPE will fund the first step of this MFIP follow-up work - the testing of the marital stability finding for a larger sample. If the original findings hold up for the larger sample, the balance of the funds will be committed to partially fund measurement of longer-term, well-being outcomes under MFIP. MDRC is also seeking other funders for this work.

Learning from State Corrections and Human Services Collaborations:
From Prison to Home – Part II

ASPE has begun work looking at families and children that are affected by the high rates of incarceration in some low-income communities. This project, which builds on the "From Prisons to Home: The Effect of Incarceration on Children, Families, and Low-Income Communities" project funded in FY 2000, will provide essential information about the issues for and choices made by states as they implemented cross-cutting strategies that involve criminal justice and health and human services systems in their work with incarcerated and formerly incarcerated individuals and their families. Many of these families are current or former welfare recipients. A State Symposium will be held in the Summer of 2001, bringing together the collaborating agency heads and other key stakeholders from selected states to obtain information on both the development and implementation phases of these State efforts. Key areas to be explored are resource needs, identifying barriers, partnership building, and implementation lessons. National organizations, such as the National Governors' Association and National Conference of State Legislatures, and other federal and private sector representatives will also be invited to the Symposium.

Case Studies of State Initiatives to Reduce Out-of-Wedlock Births

Between fiscal years 1999 and 2002, HHS will have made up to $400 million in awards for the Bonus to Reward Decrease in Illegitimacy Ratio, a provision of PRWORA. Yet, as reauthorization approaches, questions are arising as to whether changes are needed to make this provision a more effective tool for reducing out-of-wedlock births. The project will gather information from a sample of states to learn more about what programs aimed at reducing out-of-wedlock births were in operation before and after the bonus, and about what factors encouraged development of state initiatives to reduce out-of-wedlock births, including competition for and receipt of the "Illegitimacy Bonus." This information will be gathered through phone interviews of state policy makers and stakeholders, existing documentation on programs, budgets and government policies, and interviews with key people knowledgeable about state developments in family policy.

Partners for Fragile Families Evaluation

The Partners for Fragile Families demonstrations are designed to help young unwed parents by helping fathers to work with the mothers in sharing the legal, financial, and emotional responsibilities of parenthood. HHS approved ten state waivers for the Partners for Fragile Families Demonstration projects. Working at the community level with non-profit and faith-based partners to provide employment, health, and social services, these projects will test new approaches to involving young fathers with their children and to helping mothers and fathers build stronger parenting partnerships. The evaluation has three broad purposes: to increase knowledge about systems change; to build knowledge about program operations and delivery of services to fragile families; and to describe client behavior. A process and outcome evaluation will be conducted by interviewing all service providers, including child support enforcement, community based organizations, and partner agencies; and by analyzing client data and surveys. An optional ethnographic study will be included in the RFP. This project is jointly supported by ASPE and the Office of Child Support Enforcement.

Special Populations and Local Service Delivery Issues

Our strategy in the special populations and local service delivery issues area is to examine innovative approaches for delivering services while ensuring accountability. The research in this area is designed not only to improve the effectiveness of assistance and services delivered to communities in general, but also to reach and effectively serve populations who have the greatest difficulty in succeeding in employment and thus may be left behind. Issues related to substance abuse, mental health, and domestic violence, as well as research on immigrants, are included in this section. The following new projects and continuation efforts are included in our FY 2001 plan:

Case Studies on Privatization of Service Delivery and Performance-Based Contracting

With the devolution of responsibility for welfare programs under TANF, many state and local governments have turned to non-profit, and increasingly for-profit, organizations to carry out human services functions that have traditionally been provided by the public sector. As a result, there has been an increase in the prevalence of performance-based contracts, as state and local governments try to maintain accountability while testing the effectiveness of these non-traditional service providers. This project will undertake case studies of state and local governments, selected to ensure geographic diversity, and study of a wide range of TANF-funded services. The contractor will interview both agency administrators and front-line workers to determine the types of services that have been privatized and the performance measures used by government entities in their relationships with private organizations. A series of reports will describe emerging positive trends and problem areas, in both the services delivered and the types of contracts.

Support to the New Immigrant Survey

The New Immigrant Survey is a large, longitudinal survey of recently arriving immigrants beginning in 2000. INS and NICHD/NIH are the principal funders of the survey. ASPE has contributed to this effort and has also provided input to the planning of the study and the development of the pilot instruments. ASPE's contribution helps ensure that comprehensive and relevant data are collected and analyzed about program utilization and hardship and well-being over time among newly arriving low-income immigrant families in different states. In particular, ASPE's continued support will ensure that the study focuses on what is happening to children in these families under welfare reform.

Chapter Iv: Update on Continuing Projects Funded by the FY 1998, FY 1999, and FY 2000 Appropriations to Study Welfare Outcomes

Competitive Grant Programs

Grants to States and Localities to Enhance Studies of Welfare-Related Outcomes

The purpose of these grants is to enhance state-specific surveys of populations affected by welfare reform, by expanding or improving data collection activities, including efforts to improve cross-state comparability. Grants to states are being used, for example, to add additional survey waves to measure longer-term outcomes, collect data to support greater sub-group analyses, and/or gather more detailed information on non-respondents. To be eligible, states had to have an existing survey that had been administered at least once, so that the grants can facilitate real improvements, without paying for basic startup costs. Survey findings should fill an important knowledge gap that could not be filled with states' existing data, and will cover a variety of welfare reform outcomes, such as measures of family hardship and well-being, barriers to employment, poverty status, and utilization of support programs. When measuring welfare reform outcomes, the surveys and data analyses will focus on subsets of the low-income population including long-term welfare recipients, child-only cases, former recipients, potential recipients, welfare leavers with little or no reported income, and other special populations affected by state TANF policies. The funded proposals include:

Alameda County, CA (2000)

Alameda County builds on its existing survey of current TANF recipients and TANF leavers who were interviewed at baseline and at 15 months. Under this project, researchers are conducting a 27- month follow-up survey and maintain the same detailed focus on health barriers to employment, including issues related to mental health and substance abuse. Researchers from the Public Health Institute will conduct in-person interviews and anticipate drawing a sample of 512 cases with a response rate of 72 percent. As with their earlier rounds of this survey, the data will be linked to the state's administrative data systems to gain information on demographics, earnings and program participation. The questionnaire has been finalized and is being translated into Spanish and Vietnamese. Data collection is expected to run from early spring to August 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: February 2002

Iowa (2000)

Iowa builds on an existing study of its Family Independence Program (FIP), conducted by Mathematica Policy Research (MPR) and partially funded by ASPE. Their new study, which began in September 2000, consists of two components, one focusing on vulnerable families and one focusing on longer-term outcomes. The component on vulnerable families focuses on two groups that are not clearly depicted in existing data: survey non-respondents and families who report very low incomes. The study will use intensive search techniques and other methods to conduct interviews with approximately 47 non-respondent cases from Wave 1 of their survey, targeting a response rate of roughly 60 percent. Information from these interviews will be used to assess the representativeness of survey data on welfare outcomes and the implications for interpreting findings. In their study of families with very low incomes, MPR will conduct in-depth interviews of 16 families reporting no more than $500 in total income per month, including those with no TANF and no employment, and those with low levels of TANF and/or employment. These interviews will focus on possible income sources that were missed or incorrectly measured, coping strategies and family well-being. The second component of their analysis will add an additional wave to their existing survey of welfare leavers to observe longer-term outcomes. This wave will gather information on outcomes 20 to 23 months after case closure for approximately 380 cases (assuming a response rate of 85 percent). This component of the project will also incorporate administrative data to track outcomes for approximately 950 cases. MPR has secured significant funding from foundations in addition to the ASPE grant for both components of the project.

Thus far, MPR researchers have finalized their research designs for studying a) long-term recipients, b) nonrespondents, and c) vulnerable families. The survey questionnaire for these three studies is nearly complete, and postcards have been sent to sample members as a first step in their contact and location efforts. Next steps include fielding the questionnaire and assembling administrative data on the sample members.

Estimated Completion Date: February 2002

Missouri (2000)

Missouri is building on its ASPE-funded study of former TANF recipients who left the rolls in 1996 and 1997, and is adding a cohort of recipients who have remained on TANF for at least 36 months. The study seeks to characterize and contrast the self-sufficiency outcomes and barriers for current and former TANF recipients, and to identify which factors are most predictive of successfully transitioning off welfare, as well as those characteristics most predictive of exhausting the time limit. The existing study (funded in FYs 1998 and 1999) follows a sample of 1,200 former recipients, and the new cohort of stayers will consist of 400 cases. Survey data will be linked with administrative data on TANF, food stamps, child care, Medicaid, and some community-based assistance. Thus far, the contractor for the study, the Midwest Research Institute, has selected the sample of long-term recipients and developed and pre-tested the questionnaire on barriers to work. Findings from both the leavers and stayers studies will be combined in the final report.

Estimated Completion Date: December 2001

San Mateo County, CA (2000)

This study will use both administrative data and survey data to study child-only cases, including cases that have left TANF and those that remain on the rolls. The study seeks to better understand the characteristics and outcomes of these families, many of whom are headed by immigrant parents. The study will take place in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and is being conducted by the SPHERE Institute. Their survey targets a response rate of 70 percent among leavers for approximately 430 cases, and 80 percent among stayers for approximately 750 cases. Their study also will draw on administrative data from county case files, wage records and Medicaid eligibility data. Thus far, researchers have developed their research design, coordinated with various county offices, developed the survey instrument, and determined what administrative data will be needed. Next steps include programming the survey questions into the computerized interviewing system, identifying the population of child-only cases, selecting a sample, and initiating contact and location efforts.

Estimated Completion Date: August 2001

Wisconsin (2000)

This project will add a third wave of interviews to the Institute for Research on Poverty's existing study of a cohort of TANF applicants in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The new results will reflect outcomes for this cohort approximately two years after the baseline data were collected. The study is based on a sample of applicants, and the survey will contain results for those who have left TANF, those still receiving TANF, and some who never received TANF. Adding a third wave to the applicant survey will support analysis of a significant number of cases who have reached the time limit, and a significant number of cases who have cycled off and on the rolls. The researchers will examine a large number of outcomes related to employment, well-being and program participation. They anticipate that of the 1200 respondents from Wave 1, approximately 900 will complete interviews for Wave 3.

Estimated Completion Date: December 2001

South Carolina Welfare Outcomes Grant (1998 and 2000)

This project continues ASPE's support of a multi-year effort by South Carolina's Office of Budget and Control Board's Office of Research and Statistics to link administrative data and additional data from surveys of former welfare recipients. The funds provided through an ACF cooperative agreement will allow South Carolina to continue its contract for the expansion of the follow-up studies. The first report on welfare leavers has been received⁽¹⁾, as well as a draft report which focuses on those diverted from cash assistance. A longer-term follow-up (at 24 and 36 months) of welfare leavers and divertees will be the final report of this project.

Estimated Completion Date: May 2002

Researcher Initiated Grants on Welfare Outcomes

In FY 1999 ASPE awarded approximately $807,000 in grants in FY 1999 to support seven researcher-initiated proposals to study important questions related to the outcomes of welfare reform. Through these grants, we are supporting efforts to analyze a variety of information about low-income individuals (both adults and children) and their families, including their economic and non-economic well-being and their participation in government programs. Issues that are being examined under these grants include caseload dynamics, the impact of spatial distribution of economic opportunities, health insurance and health care utilization, the use of food stamps, living arrangements, maternal and child health, domestic violence, and quality-of-life issues.

In FY 2000 we continued this grant program, in cooperation with the Administration for Children and Families, focusing on use of state and federal administrative data, and on current and former TANF recipients and other special populations affected by state TANF policies. Priority research interests centered on issues likely to be of concern during TANF reauthorization discussions, including the composition of the caseload, patterns of government program use, sub-populations, non-working welfare leavers, sanctions, employment stability, marriage and family structure, TANF flexibility, barrier identification and service utilization, and entry effects and welfare dynamics. Approximately $1.3 million was awarded to 10 applicants. In general, ASPE funding is supporting research and secondary data analysis efforts that will be completed within 12 months covering a variety of information about adults, children, and families, including economic and non-economic well-being and participation in government programs. ACF awarded an additional $1.2 million in FY 2000 to support continuation of two of the projects beyond this first year and seven other longer-term projects involving primary data collection. Brief descriptions of the ASPE-funded projects follow. When available, final reports from the grantees will be posted on the ASPE website at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/> or you may fax us your request c/o Ethel Norris, fax: (202) 690-6562.

RAND: Entry, Exit and the Changing Composition of the Caseload (2000)

This project is exploring the role of the economy in explaining the welfare caseload declines. It will address the following questions: 1) What is the relative importance of changes in the rates of entry, exit, and re-entry in explaining the observed caseload declines? 2) What is the role of expenditures on welfare programs in explaining these declines? 3) To what extent is the caseload becoming harder to serve as the total caseload declines? Researchers will also explore how the answers to these questions vary by race-ethnicity (white, black, Hispanic, Asian), and welfare program (two-parent, one-parent, child-only.) The project will use California administrative data from 1987 through mid-2001.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Baruch College, City University of New York: Effects of Welfare Reform on Investments in Human Capital and Family Formation (2000)

This study is investigating whether the behavior of teens and young adults ages 16 to 21 has changed as the result of welfare reform. Researchers will use data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (NLSY) to compare cohorts (both between and within) that entered these ages prior to and following welfare reform, describing differences in outcomes and behaviors such as high school completion, teenage and non-marital child bearing, employment and welfare receipt. They will then investigate the role of welfare reform in bringing about the observed changes.

Estimated Completion Date: February 2002

University of Oregon: TANF and Household Savings (2000)

This project studies the impact of new savings incentives offered to participants in the TANF program. Specifically, researchers are addressing the following questions: 1) Has saving increased among those low-income households who reside in states that have increased the liquid-asset and vehicle equity limits for program eligibility? 2) Has saving increased among those low-income households who reside in states that have introduced Individual Development Accounts? 3) What is the impact of time-limited benefits on household savings? 4) Are there differences by race, marital status, and poverty status in the response to the new saving incentives? The study uses data from the 1989, 1994, and 1999 wealth supplements of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. A first draft of a paper has been produced.

Estimated Completion Date: August 2001

University of Michigan: Mental Health, Substance Abuse, and Domestic Violence Service Utilization by Welfare Recipients (2000)

This project is analyzing the impact that spatial proximity to social service providers and individual-level characteristics have on service utilization rates among welfare recipients in the three-county Detroit metropolitan area. The project will address the following questions: 1) How are social service providers spatially distributed in the Detroit metropolitan area? 2) Where do welfare recipients live relative to the location of mental health, substance abuse, and domestic violence services? 3) Are service utilization rates correlated with spatial proximity to providers?

Researchers will use data from the Mother's Well-Being Study (MWS), a survey of welfare recipients in the Detroit metro area, and link data from the MWS to data on the geographic location of mental health and substance providers.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation (MDRC): An Analysis of Caseload Composition and the Non-Working Welfare Leavers (2000)

Researchers are examining three groups of low-income populations (those who leave welfare for work, those who remain on the welfare rolls, and non-working welfare leavers) to address the following questions: 1) In what ways are the families who remain on welfare different than the ones who have left? 2) What are the characteristics and circumstances of people who leave welfare and are not working? The project uses data from seven evaluation studies of welfare programs (six used random assignment) conducted by MDRC.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Case Western Reserve University: The Effect of Job Accessibility and Neighborhood Characteristics on the Employment Stability of Welfare Leavers in an Urban Labor Market (2000)

The study is examining womencs employment stability, earnings, and wage trajectories over a 13-month period following their exit from TANF in the Cleveland metropolitan area. The following questions will be addressed: 1) What is the geographic distribution of jobs held by women leaving welfare, and do labor market success and job stability differ by whether jobs are located in high job growth or slow job growth sections of the metro area? 2) How residentially mobile are former welfare recipients once they have gained employment, and is that mobility related to the location of their jobs? 3) How do the residential locations of former welfare recipients and their proximity to entry-level job openings and the implied access to public transportation affect their labor market success? 4) How do the social and economic conditions in their residential neighborhood affect labor market outcomes for women leaving welfare?

Researchers will use three data sets: an ongoing longitudinal study of women leaving welfare, a regional labor market data set, and a database containing measures of neighborhood distress.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Urban Institute: The Link Between Marriage and Low-Income Family Well-Being (formerly How Important is Marriage to Low-Income Family Well-Being?) (2000)

This project, which began in September 2000, is examining the interactions between marital status, household status, and economic well-being to better understand whether increases in marriage among the low-income population would increase economic security and reduce poverty. The primary research question is: Does marriage between two biological parents, as well as other family forms, bestow economic benefits and other advantages to families with children over other family types, including single parent families and other families headed by individuals with low educational attainment and/or low earnings capacity? The study will examine conventional family types, such as two-natural- parent married family, step-family, cohabiting families and single parent families, as well as an expanded set of family types that include visiting relationships and extended families. Both economic and non-economic outcomes will be considered. Researchers have assembled the data (the 1997 and 1999 rounds of the National Survey of America's Families), constructed the necessary variables, and tabulated basic descriptive statistics regarding the incidence of various family types of family unions and measures of well-being. They are currently working on more complicated analyses and gathering and reading articles for the literature review.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Columbia University: Fragile Families and Welfare Reform (joint with ACF) (2000)

This study will describe the conditions and capabilities of vulnerable mothers and fathers in the first few years following enactment of PRWORA and begin an evaluation of the impact of TANF and child support policies. Specifically, researchers will document the composition of the actual and eligible welfare caseload, how unwed mothers are packaging various forms of support and government programs, and how well families are doing as a result of individual efforts and social policies. Researchers will also conduct subgroup analyses on teenage parents and immigrants. Researchers will use data from the Fragile Families study, a random sample of new unmarried mothers and fathers in 20 large cities across the United States. Currently, researchers are gathering data and working on the first report under this grant, a baseline report that will provide demographic and descriptive statistics, as well as compare mothers who are receiving public assistance to those who are not. The first report, including baseline data and some descriptive statistics, is expected to be released in Fall 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2003

Washington University: Employment, Earnings and Recidivism: How do Entrants to TANF Differ from Entrants to AFDC? (2000)

The project will examine factors related to welfare exits, employment stability, earnings mobility, and recidivism among welfare recipients in North Carolina, comparing the experiences of black, white and Hispanic AFDC and TANF participants. Specifically, the study will report on the demographics, welfare participation, employment retention, and post-exit earnings of five cohorts of welfare recipients in North Carolina. It will compare outcomes for those who entered welfare before TANF (1995), in the early implementation of TANF (1996 and 1997) and in the later stages of TANF implementation (1998 and 1999). It will also report on the longer-term labor market outcomes of the earlier cohorts, as well as the types of jobs AFDC/TANF recipients in North Carolina obtain, the range of wages for these jobs, and the potential for on-the-job skill development. The project will use state and county administrative data from North Carolina.

Estimated Completion Date: December 2001

UCLA/RAND: A Proposal to Examine the Reporting of Welfare Benefits in the SIPP Using Matched Administrative Records in California (joint with ACF) (2000)

This study examines the accuracy of self-reports of program participation in survey data. In particular, researchers are comparing self-reported program participation among Californians interviewed in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) with California administrative files of program participation for the same individuals. Researchers will document the degree of misreporting in a variety of programs, including AFDC/TANF, Medicaid, and Food Stamps, and investigate the implications of misreporting for conclusions about the dynamics of welfare participation.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

University of Illinois: Young Mothers' Transitions On and Off TANF: How do Child Care Assistance, Job Training, and Social Supports Influence These Decisions? (2000)

This project will identify the likelihood that Ayoung mothers will go on, stay on, leave, and stay off TANF@ given use and/or availability of child care, job training, and other social programs in their community. The research will analyze three subgroups of young mothers (ages 18-24) who lived in the Chicago metropolitan area between January 1, 1997, and June 30, 2000. There are three major components of the study: 1) geographic analyses of local area job-related resources, 2) event history models of TANF participation, and 3) process-oriented models of TANF participation. These components will utilize ZIP-code level data on the availability of child care, job training, and other social services; state administrative data to examine when mothers received TANF; and detailed questionnaire data.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

UCLA/University of Wisconsin: The Effects of the Work Pays Demonstration, EITC Expansions and the Business Cycle on the Labor Market Behavior of the California Caseload (2000)

This project is will examine the effect of: 1) welfare changes, 2) the 1990 and 1993 expansions of the EITC, and 3) changes in the business cycle on three specific issues concerning the California welfare population. These issues include: 1) how do these factors contribute to the economic well-being of families; 2) how do they affect labor market and transfer program participation; and 3) how do they affect employment changes and earnings trajectories? The project will use California administrative data drawn from the welfare, unemployment insurance, and tax systems.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

University of Wisconsin: Toward Understanding the Longitudinal Health Insurance and Food Stamp Status of Short- and Long-Term Welfare ALeavers@ (1999)

This study is relying on Wisconsin administrative data to examine the apparent eligibility for and participation in Medicaid and, to the extent possible, private health insurance, among two samples of AFDC and TANF clients: those who were receiving AFDC in September 1995 and those who were receiving Wisconsin Works (W-2) in September 1997. A similar analysis will be done with regard to receipt of food stamps. The research will focus on longitudinal use through December 1999 of Medicaid and food stamps by three groups of AFDC and W-2 participants (AFDC and W-2 Aleavers,@ Arecidivists,@ and Astayers@) across a variety of subgroup definitions, including: location; race; pregnancy; age of children; number of children; SSI recipiency; level of earned income; apparent eligibility for Medicaid and food stamps; and apparent access to private health insurance. Because of the wide range of Medicaid-funded health insurance programs, each with a different set of eligibility criteria (e.g., SCHIP, Medicaid, spenddown), it should be possible to assess how the existence of these programs affects the likelihood of Medicaid uptake among different population subgroups. In addition, for those persons for whom a wage record exists, researchers will obtain information about whether the employer offers health insurance to employees, and construct a variable to estimate the length of continuous employment with the same employer which will permit them to estimate whether a family has access to private health insurance.

Early findings concerning the determinants of food stamp take-up include: families who live in Milwaukee, have mothers with less education, are non-white, have more children, or have a longer welfare history, are more likely to take up food stamps than other families. Selected findings concerning the determinants of health insurance coverage include: children who are older, have younger siblings, moved more frequently, or have mothers who work full time are more likely to be uninsured at some point in the year. The data also indicate that children are more likely to be privately insured if the child's mother has higher educational attainment, is currently married, or works full time. Children from families living outside of Milwaukee, and with family income greater than the poverty threshold are also more likely to be privately insured. Use of public insurance is more likely among children who are young, living in Milwaukee, from families with income below the poverty threshold, hand have unmarried mothers. Future work will attempt to determine which of these characteristics are the most salient.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Continuation of 1998 Grants to States and Localities to Study Welfare Outcomes (1998 and 1999)

Thirteen states and large counties⁽²⁾ were awarded approximately $2.9 million in grants in FY 1998 to study the outcomes of welfare reform on individuals and families who leave welfare. Some of the grants also included studies of families who applied for cash welfare but never enrolled and families who appear to be eligible but not enrolled. Three grantees — Arizona, Missouri, and a consortium of San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Santa Clara counties — received additional funding in FY 1999 to extend the studies and administer a second or third wave of interviews, allowing analysis of longer-term outcomes for former recipients. For individual project descriptions and links to available reports, see <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/index.htm#background>.

As of March 2001, all 15 studies had released preliminary reports based on administrative data findings, and 12 of the 15 also had released reports with more detailed findings from follow-up surveys. Highlights from these reports are presented in Chapter II, with a focus on outcomes in employment and earnings, recidivism and program participation, and household income and family well-being.⁽³⁾ Despite some methodological differences in study design, as noted below, these reports show a surprising amount of consistency among findings across sites and different TANF programs, particularly in the areas of employment and recidivism.

ASPE's research strategy combined local flexibility in study design with some national direction and coordination. Most of the projects used administrative data to track an early cohort of individuals who left welfare around 1996 or 1997. Projects also used a combination of administrative and survey data to track the economic status and general well-being of at least one cohort who left welfare one to two years later, after the transition from AFDC to the TANF program. Projects varied in the number and types of administrative data sets examined and the design of the surveys of former recipients. Final survey sample sizes varied from 277 to over 3,500 cases, response rates ranged from 23 to 81 percent, and approximate time of interview varied from 6 to 30 months after exit. All researchers were encouraged to collect data across multiple dimensions, including employment, program participation, economic status, family structure, child well-being, material hardship, barriers to employment, etc. Grantees designed their own survey instruments, however, which differed in wording and emphasis. While this diversity poses challenges for summarizing results nationally, it has allowed states to meet the demands of elected officials for timely information on families leaving their state's welfare program.

Estimated Completion Dates: vary by project

Grants to States and Localities to Study Welfare Reform Outcomes, with an Emphasis on Diversion (1999)

One of the Congress's major objectives in providing welfare outcomes money to ASPE over the last several years is to measure outcomes for a broad population of low-income families, welfare recipients, former recipients, potential recipients, and other special populations affected by state TANF policies, including diversion practices.⁽⁴⁾  To this end, ASPE issued a request for applications from states and large counties in April 1999 with an emphasis on the study of applicants and potential applicants to the TANF program. ASPE awarded seven grants under this announcement, six of which specifically support state efforts to gather a variety of information about individuals and their families who are formally or informally diverted from TANF. In addition, several of the leavers studies funded in FY 1998 have significant applicant components to their projects.⁽⁵⁾

ASPE is particularly interested in learning about the degree to which TANF applicants receive, or are aware of their potential eligibility for, Medicaid, food stamps, and other programs and services that are important in helping low-income families make a successful transition to work. Below are summaries of the grants provided to states and large counties in fiscal years 1998 and 1999 with a particular emphasis on TANF diversion. "Diversion" this context is not limited to participation in formal diversion programs, but also includes "informal" divertees. These are usually defined as individuals who began the application process but were either deemed ineligible for non-monetary reasons, withdrew voluntarily after completing the process, or failed to complete the process for some other reason. These project updates are current as of March 2001.

Arizona (1999)

Arizona is building on their FY 1998 study of leavers by looking at informal divertees and entrants to TANF. The study uses a wide range of administrative data (including data on child care subsidies) to track second quarter 1999 divertees and recipients for 12 months, and includes surveys of 400 individuals in both populations at three and nine months after the application period (second quarter of 1999). Some of the subgroups on which the state will be focusing include urban vs. rural applicants and applicants who are initially denied but eventually reapply for TANF.

Arizona has collected administrative data from a number of different sources, including a data warehouse established as part of the FY 1998 ASPE leavers grant. The first wave of the survey resulted in a response rate of 71 percent. In the second wave of surveys, completed in September 2000, researchers were able to find 85-90 percent of individuals interviewed during the first wave. The state expects to submit a draft of the final report, as well as the public use data files for the project to ASPE in Summer 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Contra Costa County and Alameda County, California (1999)

Contra Costa and Alameda Counties are located in the East San Francisco Bay area of California and contain the cities of Oakland and Richmond. This project is studying TANF leavers from both counties, as well as formal and informal divertees in Contra Costa County. Researchers at the SPHERE Institute have been able to take advantage of these counties' Case Data System (CDS), which includes every TANF application that is initiated in the two counties. The CDS allows SPHERE to uncover the reasons individuals were diverted or left TANF, as well as make comparisons across the two counties. They used the CDS both to link all applicants with other administrative databases and to draw their survey sample of 850 leavers and 150 divertees from the third quarter of 1999. The research plan calls for comparisons between divertees and leavers and between the two counties.

The first wave of surveys was administered at six months after exit/diversion, with a response rate for informally diverted families in Contra Costa County of 64 percent. The second round of survey data collection was completed in November 2000, with a response rate of 54 percent. A preliminary draft of findings from both rounds of survey data and merged administrative data should be available in Summer 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Illinois (1999)

Illinois is focusing this study on applicants; the state is particularly interested in learning about families who fail to complete the application process. The population to be studied includes one month of approved, denied, and withdrawn applications. Although the state has no formal diversion policy, the study will assess Illinois' new intake process, which emphasizes employment, assessment, and prompt referral to needed services. Administrative data analysis is ongoing for the entire population of approximately 6,000 families, and a survey is being administered to the sample of 1,200 divertees approximately two to four months after application. The study also includes surveys of program administrators at six local welfare offices to help evaluate the new intake process.

After receiving the ASPE grant, Illinois issued a request for proposals for contractor assistance in conducting the study and selected MAXIMUS as the contractor. Survey administration is currently ongoing, and initial findings from the project are expected by Fall 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Fall 2001

New York (1999)

New York, which also received a FY 1998 leavers grant from ASPE, has included divertees, all other denials, and entrants in their sample for this study. Their analysis will focus on comparing TANF applicants who were diverted with those who received cash assistance. Twenty-one local districts are participating in the study, including New York City and other sites ranging from large urban to rural areas. In most districts, the project uses administrative data to track a March 2000 sample of divertees, denials, and entrants for 12 months after the application.

The sample was drawn through intercept interviews with TANF applicants in each of the local districts. This methodology allowed New York to include individuals who entered the TANF office with the intent to apply but who did not submit written applications. The state' s contractor, ORC Macro, is currently administering the survey to the sample of 864 families, evenly split between diverted applicants and entrants. Their goal is a response rate of 70 to 75 percent. The state expects to report results in Summer 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Texas (1999)

This project represents the combined efforts of the Texas Department of Human Services, the Texas Workforce Commission, and the University of Texas-Austin. It focuses not only on informal divertees, but also on potential TANF applicants who are formally diverted by the state, either through a one-time lump sum payment or by redirection into work. The administrative data analysis incorporates a wide variety of sources, and tracks both applicants who are redirected into work or denied for non-financial reasons and participants in the lump-sum diversion program. The state has also added leavers to both the survey and administrative samples.

Intercept surveys were conducted with 30 applicants who were denied TANF for non-financial reasons, with a second wave survey currently being administered at four months after application. The interviews with leavers, redirects, and formal divertees took place in 1999 and early 2000. Follow-up on individuals in these samples will be done using administrative data. A preliminary report was issued in early April 2001, with a final report anticipated in late Summer 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Washington (1999)

Following up on the leavers grant that they received in FY 1998, Washington is studying formal and informal divertees and entrants. The state hopes to compare the experiences of individuals who participated in the state' s Diversion Cash Assistance program, those who entered TANF, and those who were diverted and received assistance from neither program. They will be providing an analysis of administrative data for the full populations of each of these groups from the fourth quarters of 1997, 1998, and 1999, including data from up to 12 months prior to and 12 months after the selection quarter. The state has nearly completed administrative data collection.

The state completed its survey of individuals who applied for TANF or Diversion Cash Assistance between July and October of 1999. The survey effort, which was completed in May 2000 and took place between four and eight months after the time of application, resulted in a response rate of 84 percent. The state researchers hope to provide ASPE with a draft report containing both survey and administrative data by Summer 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Wisconsin (1998)

This study of individuals applying for Wisconsin Works (W-2) assistance in Milwaukee has been undertaken by the Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP) at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. This portion of the study focuses on three subgroups of applicants: those who request assistance and subsequently participate in the W-2 program, those who request assistance but are determined to be ineligible for program participation, and those who request assistance, appear to be eligible, but do not participate in W-2. A six-month cohort of applicants is being tracked through a combination of linked administrative data (e.g., public assistance, quarterly earnings, child support, foster care, and mental health data) and three waves of surveys, the third being funded by ASPE in FY 2000.

The first two waves of the survey, conducted at the time of application and 12 months afterward, are complete, and IRP is currently analyzing the survey results and using state administrative data to supplement the survey data. A report detailing findings from the first wave of the survey has been completed and will be posted at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/index.htm>.

Estimated Completion Date: Spring 2002

Leavers Studies that also Examine Diverted Populations (Florida, San Mateo, and South Carolina) (1998)

Three FY 1998 grants that have a primary focus of studying outcomes for families leaving welfare also include research on families that were formally or informally diverted from entering TANF. These three grants are Florida, a consortium of California counties, and South Carolina.

The Florida study, undertaken by researchers at Florida State University, examines three groups of individuals from the second quarter of 1997: TANF leavers, individuals who began the application process but who either withdrew voluntarily after completing the process or failed to complete the process ("diverts" ), and individuals who receive food stamps or Medicaid, have minor children, and have income and assets below the cash assistance limit but who do not receive cash assistance ("opt-nots"). Findings from Florida' s final report, released in November 2000, indicated that the "diverts" and "opt-nots" look very similar to leavers in terms of employment rates. However, leavers appear to have slightly higher earnings and slightly lower use of government services than the other two groups.

The study in San Mateo, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties in California was funded primarily as a leavers study. However, because the administrative system in all three counties includes all applications, and not just those for individuals who receive TANF, researchers at the SPHERE Institute were able to also study informal divertees. Analysis of administrative data is being supplemented by surveys administered at six, 12 and 18 months after "case closure" (when either the applicant withdraws from the application process or the TANF recipient leaves the program). A draft report summarizing the first wave of survey data along with linked administrative data was released in December 2000. At six months after case closure, leavers were better off than informal divertees in terms of household earnings, receipt of health insurance, and returns to cash aid. However, divertees had fewer barriers to employment and incidences of other hardships, such as food insecurity and child risk behaviors, than leavers. A final report from SPHERE incorporating the second and third waves of survey data is expected in Summer 2001.

The project in South Carolina also is focused primarily on leavers, but state researchers have also used food stamp records to identify families that appeared to be eligible for cash assistance but were not enrolled. Surveys were conducted with families who went on food stamps between October 1998 and March 1999 and who did not apply for TANF at any time in the following one year period. Each of these families had dependent children and was eligible for TANF based on gross income, but did not enroll in the TANF program. The state and their contractor, MAXIMUS, achieved a response rate for the surveys of 71 percent. A report detailing South Carolina' s findings has been completed and will be posted at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/index.htm> .

Estimated Completion Dates: Complete (Florida and South Carolina); Summer 2001 (San Mateo)

Projects to Improve Data Collection, Comparability, or Capacity-Building

The Feasibility of Replicating the Women's Employment Study (2000)

Widespread anecdotal evidence suggests that the welfare caseload is becoming increasingly harder to employ, as the more job ready individuals leave or do not enter the caseload. To date, a number of surveys of adult welfare recipients have demonstrated that they have a higher prevalence of multiple barriers to employment than women at large. These include lower levels of education, job skills, work experience, and literacy; higher levels of physical health problems and mental health problems (e.g., depression, post-traumatic stress disorder); and greater experiences with domestic violence. However, these studies are generally small and not representative, and the questions used to assess the prevalence of barriers differ from study to study, making cross comparisons difficult.

This project will build directly on the experience gained from the Women's Employment Study (WES), being undertaken by a research team headed by Sheldon Danziger at the University of Michigan. The purpose of this project is to review what we have learned to date and suggest how we might go about designing surveys that would provide data about multiple barriers to employment. This study will provide a critical assessment of all current studies that are measuring a variety of barriers to employment and the service needs of current and former welfare recipients, e.g., health, mental health, domestic violence, literacy, work skills, etc. A workshop was held in March 2001 which brought experts from the fields of health, mental health, domestic violence, and worker skills together with survey developers and state and local program administrators to identify how best to measure these potential barriers to employment in a telephone survey. A summary report of the workshop is expected by summer 2001. A final report will lay out the scope and content of a "model" caseload survey of welfare recipients, focusing on questions such as "What is the optimal survey design?", "What content areas should be included?", "Which specific questions?", and "If such a survey were fielded in a number of states, how would it extend the knowledge we are getting from the current round of leaver studies and other caseload studies that are in process?"

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Support to the New Immigrant Survey (2000)

Declining program participation rates indicate that immigrants and citizen children in immigrant families continue to face benefit eligibility restrictions or barriers to accessing benefits for which they may be eligible. Because of these declines in program participation, there continue to be concerns about economic, health and other outcomes for these populations. The National Institutes of Health (NICHD and NIA) are the principal funders of the New Immigrant Survey, a large, longitudinal survey of recently arriving immigrants beginning in 2000. ASPE provided input to the planning of the study and the development of the instruments. INS and National Science Foundation are other funders of the survey. ASPE funding will help ensure that comprehensive and relevant data are collected and analyzed about program utilization and hardship and well-being over time among newly arriving low-income immigrant families in different states. In particular, ASPE 's support will ensure that the study focuses on how children in these families are faring under welfare reform.

Estimated Completion Date: 2005

State and Local Telephone Survey to Assess the Incidence of Children with Special Health Care Needs (2000)

The devolution of welfare to the states and increased flexibility poses substantial new challenges for data collection and analysis to monitor welfare outcomes. To meet these challenges new and better data are needed at the state and local level. This project supports the administration of a welfare participation question in the state level telephone survey — State and Local Area Integrated Telephone Survey (SLAITS) — sponsored by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) and carried out by the National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The participation question has been cognitively tested and is the same as that asked on other national surveys (e.g., Current Population Survey, National Survey of Drug Abuse). This data element when combined with other data available from this survey will permit the development of state level estimates of the incidence of special health care needs among children of current and former welfare recipients, as well as the health insurance status (including Medicaid and SCHIP) of current and former recipients. The survey is currently being fielded in the states with an expected completion date of this phase in November 2001. Following the completion of data collection, the data will be processed and released for analysis.

Estimated Completion Date: April 2002

Support for the Research Forum on Children, Families, and the New Federalism Database and Web Site (2000)

This project, funded jointly by ACF and ASPE, supports the National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP) Research Forum database and web site. The web site is designed to provide the most reliable information to key stakeholders, including researchers, policymakers, administrators, and practitioners concerning welfare reform interventions being tested; populations and geographic areas being assessed; research methods being used; major findings already available; and when future findings will be released. The data base and web site provide valuable information useful to Federal officials and other practitioners regarding research and demonstration initiatives related to welfare reform and the well-being of low-income children and families.

Estimated Completion Date: On-going activity

Support for Iowa State University SPD Project (1999 and 2000)

The Senate Committee Report for the FY 2000 HHS Appropriations bill included language recommending continued support for Iowa State University's project to develop a mechanism to provide State-based or multi-state information, particularly in less densely populated areas. Iowa State University has been working with ASPE to develop an approach for doing state-level surveys that is relevant for local welfare program design, implementation, and evaluation and can be integrated into the Census Bureau's Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD). ASPE is currently supporting work by Iowa State University to explore the feasibility of extending and expanding the SPD to capture state-level reliable samples for use in exploring the outcomes of federal and state policies, as well as local economic conditions of low-income families. Continued ASPE funding is supporting further feasibility work on the extended survey, which includes a 20-minute telephone survey of Iowa households using a questionnaire that includes a module from the SPD as well as a transportation module to address the needs for data in a rural setting. This project is designed to help meet the need for state-specific questions and data within a national framework.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Use of Social Security Summary Earnings Records to Assess Welfare Reform Outcomes (1999 and 2000)

This project continues ASPE's support of a study to determine the prevalence of job-holding associated with a living wage in the post-1996 period for adults who received AFDC benefits in calendar year 1996. The sample of 1996 adult recipients will be drawn from the 1996 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Annual Demographic Supplement (ADS) to the March 1997 Current Population Survey and the 1997 base-line interview sample of the Survey of Program Dynamics. Post-1996 earnings activity will be documented using earnings records obtained from the Social Security Administration (SSA) administrative records matched to the samples for each of these surveys. Initial tracking of job holding and earnings levels via administrative records will be restricted to calendar years 1996, 1997 and possibly 1998. Job holding of female family heads with dependent children who were not receiving means-tested benefits will also be tracked to provide a broader context for interpreting the observed patterns among adult AFDC recipients. Employment and earnings outcomes will be differentiated by both baseline characteristics and earnings patterns established on the basis of the pre-1996 year-by-year lifetime earnings histories stemming from the SSA administrative records files. We expect to receive an initial report on welfare and former welfare recipients in February 2002.

Estimated Completion Date: December 2002

Technical Assistance to Welfare Outcomes Grantees (2000) (incorporates Technical Assistance on Researcher Access to Data Sets, 1999)

In FY 1999, ASPE procured a contractor, ORC Macro, to assist ASPE staff in providing technical assistance to both the FY 1998 and FY 1999 welfare outcomes grantees. The contractor's major task was to work with ASPE staff to coordinate two meetings of the grantees, held in Washington, DC, in Fall 1999 and Fall 2000. In carrying out this task, the contractor prepared background materials, coordinated sessions, and assisted with the logistics, planning, and registration for both of the meetings. In addition, ORC Macro has helped disseminate findings from the ASPE grants and other resources related to the study of welfare outcomes by assisting in the development of the ASPE web site for the leavers and diversion studies.

States and counties that received FY 1998 and FY 1999 Welfare Outcomes grants are now or will soon be preparing and submitting research data sets that will combine the state-specific administrative and survey data they have collected on former, current, and potential TANF recipients and other special populations affected by state TANF policies, including diversion practices. Grantees are expected to submit the data sets to ASPE , and also to make them available for research purposes. To improve the quality and comparability of these data sets, ASPE modified and extended the task order contract with ORC Macro in FY 2000 to provide technical assistance and coordination in the preparation of the data sets, to ensure that they are appropriately documented and accessible to outside researchers. ORC Macro has helped coordinate the ASPE public use data file work group, and released a technical assistance guide for the grantees in Fall 2000 on procuring and documenting researcher-access data files.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Research Technical Assistance on State Child Indicators Initiatives (1998, 1999 and 2000)

Continuation funding was provided to researchers at the Chapin Hall Center for Children at the University of Chicago to wrap up technical assistance to the states that received grants to promote child indicator work in the context of better understanding welfare reform outcomes. The technical assistance effort has emphasized collaborative work among the states and peer-to-peer assistance efforts. Technical assistance has been provided, for example, on conceptual and methodological issues in identifying and measuring appropriate sets of child health and well-being indicators within and across states; ways of creating or using survey and administrative data and of combining several data approaches; and ways to involve state policy makers who can help institutionalize data systems for measuring and tracking child indicators and establish procedures for using indicator information to inform policy deliberations. A final project meeting is planned for Summer 2001, and products from the project will be finalized and disseminated. See <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/hspyoung.htm#ongoing> for summaries of meetings at which assistance has already been provided to grantees.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Access to Welfare Outcomes Data Sets (2000)

State and county grantees conducting Welfare Outcomes studies have been preparing, documenting, and submitting research data sets that combine the state-specific administrative and survey data they have collected on former, current, and potential TANF recipients. As of April 2001, documented data sets on families who left TANF were available for further analysis from six grantees. An additional six to ten data sets are expected to be submitted over the next six months. Most of the grantees are expected to request storage of their files in a controlled environment where confidentiality can be protected. Through an interagency transfer, ASPE funds are supporting storage of these files at the Research Data Center (RDC) of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The funds are being used to: 1) support staff time in working with the Welfare Outcomes Grants data base; and 2) lower the cost to researchers of accessing the files by providing subsidies of not more than 75 percent of the RDC fee usually charged to researchers. Information on procedures for gaining access to welfare outcomes data sets is posted on the "Data Files" section of the ASPE-sponsored "Leavers and Diversion" web page at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/datafiles/index.htm>.

Estimated Completion Date: Indefinite

Analytic Projects on Welfare-Related Topics

Synthesis of Welfare Outcomes Grants (2000)

Final reports from most of the FY 1998 State Welfare Outcomes grantees have been released, and research data sets are becoming available. We understand that there is great Congressional interest in the results from the studies funded by these grants, yet it is a challenge to synthesize findings across the different grantees. Under this project, the Urban Institute is conducting secondary data analyses of welfare outcomes measures, drawing on the state-specific data sets secured under the Technical Assistance on Researcher Access to Data Sets project. The contractor released an initial synthesis report containing both administrative and survey findings from all available reports in January 2001. In addition, the contractor is writing a final report, building on both the secondary data analyses of welfare outcomes measures and the grantees' written reports. The final report should be completed by September 2001, in time for TANF reauthorization, and will add to our ongoing efforts to report reliable state-specific measures of welfare outcomes, including outcomes in the areas of employment and income, family hardship and well-being, recidivism, and utilization of other programs.

Estimated Completion Date: Fall 2001

Trends in the Economic Well-Being of Low-Income Americans (2000)

This statistical report will show trends in income, poverty and other economic measures, such as food security and access to health insurance, with explanatory text and charts. Where possible, the book will incorporate tables using an alternative measurement of poverty based on recommendations from the National Academy of Sciences. The data book will be composed of five chapters: an overview of income and poverty; children and their families; working-age adults; the elderly; and the impacts of public programs including outcomes of welfare reform. In addition there will be appendices covering basic data from public programs serving low-income and welfare populations and alternative income and poverty measurement issues. Information will come from various sources, including the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and administrative data.

Estimated Completion Date: October 2001

Transition Events in the Dynamics of Poverty (2000)

This project will study the events associated with people entering and exiting poverty. The project will document the likelihood of entering and exiting poverty for various groups, including single working-age adults, children, families, and elderly. The project also will document the extent to which various transition events or combinations of events account for entries and exits from poverty. This project can help determine whether poverty rates are declining because fewer people are entering poverty or because more people are exiting poverty. We will also measure changes in reasons for poverty exits resulting from welfare reform. The product will be a report with transition rates and reasons by subgroup.

Estimated Completion Date: March 2002

Low-Income/Low-Skilled Workers ' Involvement in the Temporary/Contingent Employment Sector (2000)

Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that in 1997 a large proportion of workers were employed in alternative or contingent work arrangements, such as work through a temporary help agency, working for a contract company, or working on-call. Compared to other kinds of workers, contingent workers tend to have lower rates of pay, health insurance coverage and pension plan participation, and higher rates of part-time employment. The one percent of workers employed by temporary help agencies are more likely to be young, female and minority than workers in traditional arrangements (or other contingent arrangements). Many welfare recipients and welfare leavers who go to work are likely to be in the temporary worker population. Low-skilled and low-income individuals may turn to temporary employment as a measure of last resort because they can't obtain permanent positions, or by choice to accommodate personal needs such as child care or education. This project is investigating the prevalence of nonstandard employment among low-skilled and low-income populations including current, former and potential welfare recipients; identifying the most common forms of temporary positions; and exploring the reasons these temporary jobs are taken. The contractor, the Urban Institute, has produced a literature review and is conducting analysis of various data sources including the CPS, SIPP and data on industries and occupations to determine rates and trends in nonstandard work and overlap with welfare receipt.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Mental Health and Employment (2000)

As TANF policies are moving welfare recipients into the labor force, there is growing interest and concern about the barriers that may prevent recipients from gaining and keeping employment. Mental health problems are one such barrier. Under this task order, Mathematica Policy Research will examine a number of state/local TANF programs in order to: 1) document the methods programs are using to identify, refer and treat welfare recipients with mental health problems; 2) identify approaches that are promising in assisting people with mental health problems to obtain treatment and find and keep employment; 3) highlight the issues and problems that welfare programs are grappling with as they attempt to better serve clients with mental health problems; and 4) assess the challenges and opportunities involved in collaborating with other public systems, such as the public mental health and vocational rehabilitation systems.

Estimated Completion Date: July 2001

Linking State TANF Policies to Outcomes: A Preliminary Assessment (2000)

ASPE has funded the Urban Institute to analyze and synthesize available information on state welfare and related support policies. Based on the recommendations of an advisory working group, the contractor will develop several possible classification systems that summarize and group welfare and related policies according to various characteristics (e.g., level of benefit, strictness of work mandate, generosity of work supports) expected to affect outcomes for welfare recipients and other low-income families. The resulting database will be made available to researchers interested in studying the relationships between state TANF policies and the range of outcomes experienced by current and former welfare recipients and other low-income populations.

Estimated Completion Date: August 2001

Quick Turnaround Analyses under Welfare Reform (2000)

The TANF program will be up for reauthorization in October 2002, as will be the Child Care and Development Block Grant, the Food Stamp Program, and several other programs. It is anticipated that, as in the period before enactment of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA), ASPE will be called upon to contribute to the expected TANF reauthorization debates by providing analyses of policy issues and options, especially those affecting low-income children and families. Under this project, ASPE has awarded a task order contract to the Urban Institute to have the Institute perform very quick analyses of existing data sets, such as the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), data from the Urban Institute's National Survey of America's Families (NSAF), administrative data on the TANF program, state policy data, and others. Data analyses will provide information about the characteristics of children and families across a wide range of policy relevant topics, such as the effects of welfare reform on child and family well-being, transitions to employment, immigrants, poverty rates, child poverty, etc. Some of these analyses will inform policy debates on the interactions with food stamps, Medicaid/SCHIP and SSI; others into the impact of state policy changes made as a result of the flexibility of the TANF law. Other questions could be identified during the reauthorization process. Each question is expected to result in a deliverable of a memorandum with detailed tables.

Estimated Completion Date: Spring 2002

Alternative Kinship Care Programs Set up Outside of TANF and Foster Care (2000)

Families in which a grandparent or another relative has taken over parental responsibilities make up approximately one-third of both the TANF and foster care caseloads. Neither of these service systems have been set up with such families in mind, and, in many ways, the services provided are an inadequate match with families' needs. Several states have set up separate kinship care assistance programs outside the traditional structures of both the child welfare and TANF systems. This project is profiling states' efforts in order to compare and contrast the approaches states are using and how these programs help children. It will provide a broad outline of the range and scope of programs operating across the country and in-depth information on programs in six sites. The study is gathering information on why the programs were created, how they were designed and implemented (from both a logistical and political perspective), what services they provide, how they are financed, and how they operate in coordination with other state systems.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Implementation of Welfare Reform at the Local Level: Implications for Special Populations (2000)

With the implementation of welfare reform, state and local agencies have established a variety of rules and procedures governing enrollment in TANF and Medicaid. As authority for welfare policy has devolved to state and, oftentimes, local levels, local agencies and caseworkers may have more discretion over how individual cases are handled. This study is examining the implications for special populations, particularly individuals of different backgrounds and limited English language abilities. The results of this project will provide additional information about the effects of program policy and implementation at different levels on program utilization by these special populations. The project consists of detailed case studies that examine agency policies and practices, as well as caseworker training and discretion, in six metropolitan areas, which are in the process of being identified.

Estimated Completion Date: Spring 2002

Understanding the Declines in Teen Birth Rate (2000)

PRWORA describes several outcomes of concern related to teen pregnancy, including an increased likelihood of dependence on public assistance, and reducing teen pregnancy is viewed as an important aspect of promoting self-sufficiency and family well-being within the context of welfare reform. Yet, as teen birth rates have fallen at an unprecedented rate since 1991, there is a debate regarding factors that have contributed to this decline. This project will use data from the National Survey of Family Growth to describe data on sexual activity, partner characteristics, and contraceptive use for women surveyed in 1995 who were teens at any time during the study period. This data will be used to create simulation models that may clarify which factors are associated with changes in teen pregnancy and births and how possible future changes in these factors might affect teen pregnancy and birth rates. Using monthly event history data, the study will observe trends in behavior between 1991 and 1995. Trend information will be presented for multiple population subgroups, including by race/ethnicity, age, and parity (whether or not they had a prior teen birth). Estimates based on event history data are being created. Work is beginning on setting up a base model to assess factors associated with a continued decline in the teen birth rate.

Estimated Completion Date: December 2001

How Low-Wage Working Families Cope as Parents and Workers (2000)

Low-wage working families face multiple demands as workers and as parents. Besides working, low-income parents in both single and two-parent families need time for training and education, navigating complex health and support services, parenting, and managing their children's needs. Some low-wage working parents are also providing care for family members who are elderly or who have special needs. Employers often require that low-wage workers work non-standard and irregular hours. There are numerous questions about what is going on in the lives of these parents, including those who are teen parents and those leaving TANF assistance and entering the labor force for the first time. This project, jointly sponsored by ASPE and ACF, will look at coping mechanisms and examine a variety of factors that may help or hinder a family's efforts to be self sufficient, including formal and informal support services, social support networks, time management, money management and other life skills. The project also will investigate what is happening to children, and how they are being cared for when parents, for example, have to work changing shifts. The project will commission a set of research papers, convene a conference of researchers and policy makers, and disseminate a conference volume. The working conference will be held November 13-14, 2001, and the conference volume should be completed by February 2002.

Estimated Completion Date: Winter 2002

From Prisons to Home: The Effect of Incarceration on Children, Families, and Low-Income Communities (2000)

A majority of incarcerated men and women are parents, and the impact of incarceration appears to be greatest in poor, minority, urban communities. The toll on children, families, and communities has caused increasing concern, and a growing realization that families served by TANF and other Department of Health and Human Services programs are families who are also more likely to experience the effects of incarceration. This project will produce a literature review, commissioned papers, and a conference in order to develop a research and practice baseline on what is known and knowable about this high-risk, high-welfare use population. Specifically, the project will focus on five issues: 1) support for continued parenting of children, including living arrangements for children during and after incarceration; 2) loss of financial resources, including issues of TANF eligibility, unemployment, and child support payments; 3) the possibility of losing custody or having parental rights terminated because of incarceration, especially when related to drug and alcohol addictions; 4) lack of availability of appropriate treatment programs for substance abuse and mental illness, both within the prison system and post-release; and 5) integration of inmate rehabilitation services with post-release community interventions for the inmate and his/her children and families. Related issues, such as the effect of pre- and post-incarceration interventions on welfare usage, will also be addressed. An interagency, multi-disciplinary Technical Review Group met in February 2001 to provide recommendations for the project. Planning for the commissioned papers and the conference are now underway.

Estimated Completion Date: June 2002

Poor Families with Infants and Toddlers (2000)

Low-income parents of infants and toddlers are challenged to balance work or school activities with the responsibilities of nurturing their young children. These challenges affect parents who are receiving welfare in the post-PRWORA environment as well as former recipients and the working poor. In order to meet their responsibilities, these families need access to high quality child care that fits their work schedules as well as other supportive services. Despite what we know about the particular challenges facing poor families with infants and toddlers, we know little about how these families are faring in the aftermath of welfare reform and whether states and communities have developed strategies to provide them with high quality child care and other services. In this project, we are studying strategies which states and communities are pursuing to provide high quality child care and other support services for welfare and working poor families with infants and toddlers. Some of these strategies are being evaluated. The result of this effort will go beyond the few existing basic descriptions of these strategies to provide analysis of how these initiatives have been structured, promising practices or areas of concern, and key outcomes which have been measured. It will also provide a much needed synthesis of the available research evidence and identify measures which have been used to document improvement for use in future evaluations and monitoring efforts.

Estimated Completion Date: Spring 2002

Enhancement of the Study of Trends in Emergency Assistance Related to TANF (2000) (incorporates Trends in the Demand for Assistance Services, 1999)

The 1999 funded project, Trends in the Demand for Assistance Services, jointly funded with the Office of Program Systems (PS) within ASPE, examines the trends in the demand for emergency assistance services, such as homeless shelters and food banks, from the mid-1990's to 2000. There are two grants, one covering the State of Massachusetts (conducted by the University of Massachusetts) and the other in San Mateo County, California (conducted by the SPHERE Institute). Researchers are collecting information from providers of these services and other socioeconomic data in order to examine the changing patterns of usage during the period of economic expansion and declining welfare caseloads before and after welfare reform. The final reports will provide information on whether welfare reform is associated with any change in the demand for emergency services. Both projects are now drafting final reports.

In order to provide a more extensive analysis of changes in demand for emergency services, the Office of Program Systems and HSP jointly funded an Intra-Agency Agreement with the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) during FY 2000. SAMHSA's Center for Mental Health Services also added funding to the Agreement. SAMHSA has awarded a contract to the Gallup Organization that adds two sites to this analysis — Spokane, Washington and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The sites are using timeframes and emergency assistance analyses that are consistent with the above grants. The contract is being jointly monitored by ASPE and SAMHSA. Preliminary data are expected by late Summer 2001.

Estimated Completion Date: Fall 2001

Welfare Reform and the Health and Economic Status of Immigrants and the Organizations that Serve Them (1998 and 1999)

ASPE and other federal agencies contributed funds in 1998 and 1999 to award a grant to the Urban Institute to deepen our understanding of the impact of recent changes in Federal laws on immigrant families and children by conducting a large-scale study of immigrants and their communities in Los Angeles and New York City.

See Results/Findings and <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/hspother.htm> for information on accomplishments to date.

Estimated Completion Date: October 2001

In a related effort, ASPE funds were also used to support the Urban Institute's updating of the TRIM modeling program (used to simulate welfare caseload changes resulting from changes in various policy variables) to include parameters about immigrants, and as a subset, refugees and non-refugees, using 1995 data as a baseline. This updated model could be used to estimate the rates of participation in TANF, Medicaid, and Food Stamps by children, both citizen and immigrant, who live in immigrant- and citizen-headed households.

Estimated Completion Date: Summer 2001

Welfare Reform and Its Implications for Persons with Disabilities (1998)

This project is a supplement to an ongoing four-year study of the implications of welfare reform for low-income families living in Boston, Chicago, and San Antonio (a summary of the study is available at <http://www.jhu.edu/~welfare>). The broader study is being undertaken by researchers at Johns Hopkins University, Pennsylvania State University, Harvard University, University of Chicago, and the University of Texas-Austin. Funds are being used to explore how welfare reform is affecting the lives of a particularly vulnerable subset of the welfare population — adults and children with disabilities. This will be accomplished by conducting longitudinal case studies of families with members with disabilities receiving TANF and through a broader survey effort. The purpose of the data collection efforts is to better understand how recent work participation requirements and time limits under welfare reform are affecting service utilization, family member's health and development, support networks, parenting, and child care arrangements.

ASPE, the Administration for Children and Families, and the Administration on Developmental Disabilities are the primary funders of the disability component of the study. The National Institute of Child Health and Human Development is the primary funder of the broader study, along with several private foundations. Andrew Cherlin, Johns Hopkins University, is the principal investigator. The first round of interviews for the main survey were conducted from March 1999 until December 1999. Fieldwork in the ethnography component began in fall 1999 and is ongoing. Results from the project will be available over the course of the study. Listed below are the current publications from the broader study; results from the ethnographies focused on disability will be available later.

Accomplishments to date:

Sanctions and Case Closings for Noncompliance: Who is Affected and Why?, February 2001 — Policy Brief 01-1

The Diversity of Welfare Leavers, September 2000 — Policy Brief 00-02

What Welfare Recipients Know About the New Rules and What They Have to Say About Them, July 2000 — Policy Brief 00-1

Estimated Completion Date: 2003

Other Projects

National Academy of Sciences Panel Study on Welfare Outcomes (1998, 1999 and 2000)

ASPE continues its support of the National Academy of Sciences' Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs. The purpose of convening this NAS Panel was to evaluate the design of current, proposed and future studies of the effects of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996, and to provide the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) with unbiased scientific recommendations for studying the outcomes of recent changes in the welfare system. The panel's conclusions and recommendations on research questions and populations of interest, evaluation methods and issues, and data needs and issues were presented in its report, Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition, and are discussed in Chapter II. The published Final Report will be disseminated in Summer 2001.

Throughout the course of this study, the Academy has conducted workshops and seminars focused on methodological issues associated with the study of welfare outcomes. Papers presented and discussed at the Workshop on Data Collection for Low-Income and Welfare Populations will be published in a companion volume, Data Collection and Research Issues for Studies of Welfare Populations, and are scheduled to be released in September 2001. These papers by welfare outcomes research experts discuss the current state of knowledge for surveying low-income populations; preparation and use of and access to welfare program-relevant administrative data systems; and measuring important outcomes for welfare studies.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2001

Devolution and Urban Change (2000)

This five-year project (which is primarily foundation-funded) is a multi-disciplinary study by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation (MDRC) of the implementation and impacts of welfare reform and welfare-to-work programs on low-income individuals, families and communities in four large urban areas: Cleveland, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Miami. Other Federal partners include HHS' Administration for Children and Families (ACF) and the Economic Research Service at USDA. The project brings together data from an unusually wide array of sources: longitudinal administrative data for all families receiving AFDC/TANF or Food Stamps dating back to 1992, survey data, an implementation study, neighborhood indicators, an institutional study focusing on local service providers, and an ethnographic study of a limited number of families.

Accomplishments to date: (These reports are available at <http://www.mdrc.org/>)

The Project on Devolution and Urban Change: Social Service Organizations and Welfare Reform, February 2001.

The Project on Devolution and Urban Change: Post-TANF Food Stamp and Medicaid Benefits: Factors That Aid or Impede Their Receipt, January 2001.

Assessing the Impact of Welfare Reform on Urban Communities: The Urban Change Project and Methodological Considerations, November 2000.

The Project on Devolution and Urban Change: Food Security and Hunger in Poor, Mother-Headed Families in Four U.S. Cities, May 2000.

Big Cities and Welfare Reform: Early Implementation and Ethnographic Findings from the Project on Devolution and Urban Change, June 1999.

Estimated Completion Date: September 2002

Continuation of New Jersey Welfare/Substance Abuse Evaluation (1998 and 2000)

In FY 1998 we began funding, in partnership with ACF, a three year grant to support the evaluation of a New Jersey initiative which aims to improve employment and family outcomes for TANF recipients with substance abuse problems through substance abuse treatment, intensive case management and supportive services. This evaluation will provide important information about the effectiveness of a type of intervention several states are experimenting with to move substance abusing welfare clients toward self-sufficiency. The intervention New Jersey is implementing includes screening of welfare recipients for substance abuse problems, treatment referral mechanisms with enhanced case management, and substance abuse treatment coordinated with employment and training or vocational services. The evaluation, using a random assignment model, compares two models for providing such services, looking at outcomes in several domains including employment and family self-sufficiency, substance use and associated behaviors, child development and family functioning, and child welfare involvement. The intervention being evaluated is intended to improve the post-welfare prospects of TANF recipients with substance abuse problems. The evaluation is being conducted in two New Jersey counties (Essex and Atlantic).

The grantee, the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York City, will produce three products resulting from the evaluation which are intended for use by ACF and the state to disseminate information about the project. These include: (1) a descriptive profile of the population served by New Jersey's welfare-to-work program, including how many have substance use disorders as well as other barriers to self-sufficiency; (2) an implementation report describing the difficulties encountered and lessons learned about implementing these services, as well as issues to be considered in establishing substance abuse interventions in welfare contexts; and (3) an outcomes report describing outcomes for participants and controls 12 months post-treatment. ASPEand ACF have provided support for this project. Other aspects of the evaluation are being funded by the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the Department's National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Estimated Completion Date: Random assignment of clients to the intervention models began in mid-1999. Research Notes on the effectiveness of two approaches to screening and assessment of substance abuse in welfare settings, and on the initial rates of treatment engagement and retention for program participants versus the control group were published in January 2001. We expect the baseline characteristics report in Summer 2001, a three-month outcomes report in Fall 2001, the implementation analysis report in Winter 2002, and a 15-month outcomes report in Summer 2002.

Supporting Families After Welfare Reform: Access to Medicaid, S-CHIP and Food Stamps (1999)

ASPE, along with the Administration for Children and Families, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services and USDA, contributed funding to a major $5.9 million initiative of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to provide technical assistance and grants to states and large counties to improve their enrollment and redetermination processes for Medicaid, the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), and Food Stamps. Under the Supporting Families program, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation will provide funding for assistance to states or counties to work on Medicaid and SCHIP, while federal funding will provide assistance to work on Food Stamps, Medicaid, and SCHIP. The expert technical assistance may take the form of analysis of performance data, identification of the root causes of problems in their enrollment processes, and/or development of specific implementation plans to solve the problems and increase the participation rates in Medicaid, SCHIP, and Food Stamps. Information on the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's overall initiative to solve problems in eligibility processes that make it difficult for low-income families to access and retain Medicaid, SCHIP or Food Stamps — particularly families moving from welfare to work — can be found under "Supporting Families after Welfare Reform" at <http://www.rwjf.org/app/rw_about_our_grantees/rw_gra_npo_detail.jsp?id=SFW>.

Federal funding supported a literature review and synthesis on the recent drop in participation in the Medicaid and Food Stamp programs, including the reasons underlying the changes in participation, and the potential strategies for increasing participation among eligible families. The report, Access to and Participation in Medicaid and the Food Stamp Program - A Review of the Recent Literature, was released in March 2000, and can be found at <www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/opre/med-fs.htm>. It includes findings from government- and privately-sponsored research projects, studies of participation in the Food Stamp Program (FSP) and Medicaid at the national and state level, studies of low-income families who have left welfare, reviews of research, and ongoing analysis and data collection efforts. Federal funding is also supporting reviews of promising practices sites and a report describing the practices that appear to enhance or facilitate participation in the Medicaid/SCHIP and Food Stamp programs by former TANF and low-income families. Some promising practices site visits have been completed; the remainder should be completed by Summer 2001. Visits to program improvement sites, as part of the larger project, should also be completed by Summer 2001. The final reports will synthesize findings across all promising practices and program improvement sites.

Estimated Completion Date: December 2001

Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A. FANS) (1999)

The L.A. FANS is a four-year longitudinal study by RAND of children, their families, and their neighborhoods in Los Angeles. While designed to answer broader research questions about the effects of neighborhoods on children, the study also is examining the effects of welfare reform at the neighborhood level. The study design includes both extensive household surveys and collection of detailed longitudinal information on neighborhoods through interviews with families, key informants, and service providers, on-site observation, and extensive administrative data. ASPE is providing support to enhance information about health insurance coverage and health status among children and families. For more information, see The Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey on RAND's website at <http://www.rand.org/lafans/>.

Estimated Completion Date: 2003

Endnotes

1.  Findings from South Carolina' s study of welfare leavers have been incorporated with the Findings from ASPE-Funded Leavers Studies (Grants to States and Localities to Study Welfare Outcomes), which are summarized in Chapter II and presented in more detail in Appendix B.

2.  As noted in Chapter II, the 1998 grants were awarded to ten states and three large counties or consortia of counties (Arizona, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin; and Cuyahoga County, Ohio, Los Angeles County, California, and San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Santa Clara Counties, California). Separate but comparable studies were also funded in Iowa (with FY 1999 funding) and South Carolina (in FY 1998 and 2000, as part of a longer-term project) resulting in a total of 15 studies with findings on former recipients as of spring 2001. (Findings from all 15 studies, including Iowa and South Carolina, are highlighted in Chapter II and detailed in Appendix B.)

3.  Findings presented here are based on an Initial Synthesis Report of the Findings From ASPE' s "Leavers" Grants (prepared by the Urban Institute and available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/synthesis01/index.htm>;  "A Cross-State Examination of Families Leaving Welfare: Findings from the ASPE-Funded Leavers Studies," prepared by ASPE staff and available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/cross-state00/index.htm>; and ASPE staff analyses of reports submitted between November 2000 and March 2001.

4.  Diversion programs include formal efforts to address the immediate needs of families seeking cash assistance in ways that avoid enrolling these families in TANF. Examples of formal diversion programs include lump sum payment programs, mandatory applicant job search programs and the exploration of alternative means of support.

5.  Findings from state diversion studies have just begun to become available. As studies are completed and reports finalized, ASPE plans to summarize and synthesize the information across studies as appropriate, similar to our syntheses of findings from leavers studies.

Appendices

Appendix A: Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition

Chapter 3 Research Questions and Populations of Interest

Conclusion 3.1

The primary population of interest for measuring the effects of changes in social welfare programs is the low-income population. The primary group of interest to the TANF program is the population of low-income mothers and their children.

Conclusion 3.2

Within the low-income population, those groups who have been on welfare or who are eligible for welfare are of particular interest. Within the population of welfare eligibles, there are four separate subgroups, each of which is of special interest for welfare reform studies: those who leave welfare, those who stay on welfare, those who are formally diverted from welfare through diversion programs, and those who are poor but have not applied for benefits or who have applied but been rejected.

Conclusion 3.3

The specific service needs of some low-income individuals and families also define subpopulations of interest for welfare reform research. First among these are families with special circumstances or characteristics that make the transition to employment and self-sufficiency difficult. Other subgroups of the low-income population have special needs that require assistance independent of their effects on employment, including: families with poor physical or mental health, substance abuse problems, or problems of domestic violence, as well as families with troubled adolescents or children with special physical, cognitive, or behavioral problems.

Conclusion 3.4

The set of outcomes of interest for studies of welfare reform should be defined broadly to include all the outcomes that the different audiences of studies of welfare reform-the public, Congress and state legislators, and other governmental officials and program administrators-are concerned about.

Conclusion 3.5

The monitoring questions of interest are the following: How has the well-being of the low-income population and key subgroups evolved subsequent to welfare reform? Which subgroups are doing well and which are doing less well? Which subgroups are in greatest need and deserve the attention of policy makers?

Conclusion 3.6

The descriptive questions of interest regarding program policy and implementation are the following: What policies, programs, and administrative practices have states and localities actually implemented as part of welfare reform? How wide is the variation across states and even within states in policy? How has implementation differed from officially described policy? How has the non-TANF programmatic environment changed?

Conclusion 3.7

The impact evaluation questions of interest are the following: What are the overall effects of the complete bundle of changes in policies, programs, and practices on the well-being of the low-income population, including the effects on both adults and children and on specific subpopulations of interest? What are the effects of the individual broad components of welfare reform on the well-being of the low income population and subpopulations of interest? What are the effects of specific detailed strategies within each of the broad program components on the well-being of the low income population and the subpopulations of interest--what works and for whom?

Conclusion 3.8

The effect of welfare reform is a question of interest for the nation as a whole as well as for individual states.

Recommendation 3.1

The panel recommends that ASPE take primary responsibility for publicly defining the questions of interest for welfare reform research and evaluation, identifying emerging issues for social welfare programs, and defining alternative detailed strategies and policies that address the what-works-and-for-whom questions. In doing so, ASPE should expand its current activities in seeking input from states, private foundations, and other stakeholders on emerging policy and evaluation issues.

Recommendation 3.2

ASPE should produce an annual report to Congress that, among other things, presents a comprehensive list of the important questions to be addressed in welfare reform research, describes how those questions are being addressed in the overall landscape of welfare reform studies, and explains how its own research agenda relates to those questions and to other studies underway.

Chapter 4 Evaluation Methods and Issues

Conclusion 4.1

Different questions of interest require different evaluation methods. Many questions are best addressed through the use of multiple methods. No single evaluation method can effectively and credibly address all the questions of interest for the evaluation of welfare reform.

Conclusion 4.2

Experimental methods could not have been used for evaluating the overall effects of PRWORA and are, in general, not appropriate for evaluating the overall effects of large-scale, system-wide changes in social programs.

Conclusion 4.3

Experimental methods are a powerful tool for evaluating the effects of broad components and detailed strategies within a fixed overall reform environment and for evaluating incremental changes in welfare programs. However, experimental methods have limitations and should be complemented with nonexperimental analyses to obtain a complete picture of the effects of reform.

Conclusion 4.4

Nonexperimental methods, primarily time-series, and comparative group methods, are best suited for gauging the overall effect of welfare reform and least suited for gauging the effects of detailed reform strategies, and as important as experiments for the evaluation of broad individual components. However, nonexperimental methods require good cross-area data on programs, area characteristics, and individual characteristics and outcomes.

Recommendation 4.1

The panel recommends that ASPE sponsor methodological research on nonexperimental evaluation methods to explore the reliability of such methods for the evaluation of welfare programs. Specification testing, sensitivity testing, and validation studies that compare experimental estimates to nonexperimental ones are examples of the types of methodological studies needed.

Conclusions 4.5

Existing household surveys are of inadequate sample size to estimate all but the largest overall effects of welfare reform on individual outcomes using cross-state comparison methods. Research is needed to address this problem by considering the American Community Survey, state level administrative data sets, and supplements and additions to the CPS or other surveys to increase their capacity to detect welfare reform impacts in the future.

Conclusions 4.6

The problem of generalizability of the evidence from welfare reform evaluations on specific populations, areas, and relationships to more general populations, to a national level, and to new policies, has not been sufficiently addressed. More use of microsimulation models as a tool to address generalizability is needed. Microsimulation is also needed to assist in the synthesis of diverse types of results.

Recommendation 4.4

The panel recommends that U.S. Department of Health and Human Services sponsor process research in a number of service delivery areas to better understand how service delivery administrations have implemented new welfare programs and the benefits and services families and children are receiving under these new programs.

Recommendation 4.5

Process and implementation studies have grown in number and importance in the evaluation of welfare reform but often have design defects and are insufficiently integrated with outcome evaluations. As a consequence, their potential use in evaluation has not been fully reached. The panel recommends that U.S. Department of Health and Human Services sponsor methodological research on process and implementation studies to improve methods for systematizing the documentation of program policies and practices, to develop protocols and best practices, and to further integrate them with impact evaluations.

Recommendation 4.6

Qualitative and ethnographic studies of the low-income population and its relevant subpopulations and of social service agencies that provide services to these populations are an important part of the overall welfare program evaluation framework. The panel recommends the further use of well-designed qualitative and ethnographic studies in evaluations of welfare programs to complement other evaluation methods.

Recommendation 4.7

A welfare dynamics perspective should be incorporated into more welfare reform studies, including leaver studies. In general, more disaggregation by levels of heterogeneity among leavers and stayers is needed given the importance of disaggregation for outcomes on and off welfare.

Conclusion 4.8

Studies of the outcomes of welfare leavers contribute only one part of the story of welfare reform and, as an evaluation method, have been disproportionately emphasized relative to other methods. Studies that compare current leavers to those who left welfare prior to welfare reform and studies of divertees, applicants, and nonapplicant eligibles need more emphasis.

Recommendation 4.9

More methodological research is needed to assess and improve the credibility of the multiple cohort method of evaluating the overall effects of welfare reform. This research needs to study the best method to control for the time-series effects of other policies and the economic environment and how many cohorts are enough to do this.

Recommendation 4.10

Experimental methods are underused in current designs of new welfare policy evaluations and should be employed in future studies evaluating different detailed reform strategies and different individual broad components.

Recommendation 4.11

The federal government should take a proactive role in sponsoring experiments at the state and local levels and should encourage planned variation and cross-state comparability to yield the maximum general knowledge.

Conclusion 4.5

Caseload and other econometric models have produced a mixed set of results, partly because of data limitations and partly because of an inherent lack of policy variability. They have done somewhat better at producing ballpark estimates of the overall effects of welfare reform than at producing estimates of the effects of individual broad components.

Recommendation 4.12

The federal government, taking all agencies as a whole, has produced and funded a great deal of valuable monitoring research and a much smaller volume of evaluation research. A greater effort to produce a comprehensive evaluation framework for social welfare programs that considers the major questions of interest and the evaluation methods appropriate for each is needed. A comprehensive framework for evaluation should be developed and used to guide the evaluation efforts under way by private and other public evaluation organizations. This should be an on-going effort as new issues emerge and is a responsibility that should be taken on by the ASPE in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Recommendation 4.13

In its Annual Report to Congress, ASPE should review the existing landscape of evaluation methods, whether the appropriate balance of experimental and different nonexperimental methods is being achieved, and how evaluation methodology fits into its own research agenda.

Conclusion 4.6

The panel finds that state capacity and resources to conduct evaluations of their own welfare reform programs is often below the level is needed for such an important change in policy.

Recommendation 4.14

The panel recommends that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. continue and expand its efforts to build capacity for conducting high- quality program evaluations at the state level through the provision of technical assistance, convening of research conferences, promoting the exchange of technical assistance among the states, and other capacity building mechanisms.

Recommendation 4.15

The panel recommends that ASPE be the primary agency responsible for synthesizing findings from studies of the consequences of changes in welfare programs.

Chapter 5 Data Needs and Issues

Conclusion 5.1

The panel finds that each of the major national household survey data sets most suitable for monitoring and evaluation has significant limitations in terms of sample size, nonresponse levels, periodicity, response error, population coverage, or survey content.

Conclusion 5.2

Key national-level survey data sets used to monitor low-income and welfare populations are currently not being produced on a timely basis. The value of these data for monitoring low income and welfare populations would be enhanced if they are produced on a more timely basis.

Recommendation 5.1

To improve the abilities of national-level survey data sets to measure the effects of changes in broad welfare program components across states, the panel recommends expansions or supplements to the CPS or other surveys.

Recommendation 5.2

A fully implemented and continuous American Community Survey has significant potential for use in future welfare policy research. The panel recommends that sufficient funds be devoted to fully implement the survey and that support for the survey at its currently proposed sample sizes is sustained over time.

Recommendation 5.3

The potential of the American Community Survey for evaluating welfare policies would grow considerably if the survey included more extensive questions about public assistance benefit and service receipt. The panel recommends adding more detailed questions on public assistance receipt to the survey questionnaire.

Recommendation 5.4

The wider array of services provided in social welfare programs and the variation in these programs across states both make measuring program participation and benefit receipt more difficult, especially on a national-level. For national household surveys that measure participation in and benefits received from programs serving the low income population, it is critically important to regularly and frequently review survey questions to keep in step with program and population changes. The panel recommends to the Census Bureau that more resources be devoted towards improving questions on program participation and benefit receipt to better capture program participation. The panel also recommends that HHS work with the Census Bureau to develop mechanisms for regular communication with states to stay abreast of programmatic and implementation changes in the states.

Recommendation 5.5

State-level capacity to conduct household surveys of low-income and welfare populations is limited. HHS has begun an important effort to build state capacity for conducting surveys. These efforts need to be continued and expanded.

Recommendation 5.6

Administrative data, primarily at the state level, are an important emerging source of information for both monitoring and evaluation. However, there are many significant challenges that prevent them from fulfilling their potential, including the conversion to research use from management use, preservation of data over time, improvements in the quality of individual data items, comparability of data across states, confidentiality and access, and barriers to matching across different administrative and survey data sets. Much more investment in this data resource is needed.

Conclusion 5.3

The lack of cross-state comparability is a major barrier to the use of state-level administrative data sets for cross-state monitoring and evaluation.

Recommendation 5.7

The panel recommends that HHS, in conjunction with state social service agencies, take steps to further improve the comparability of administrative data across states. These steps should move toward comparable definitions of services and service units and data formats. Building comparability across states will have to be a cooperative effort between the federal government and states and will likely require federal funding of state activities.

Recommendation 5.8

The current definition of assistance used to guide state data reporting requirements is very narrow and will not capture many recipients receiving different forms of assistance provided by states. The panel recommends that the Administration for Children and Families consider broadening this definition to include as many types of assistance and services provided as possible.

Recommendation 5.9

Administrative data reported by states as part of the TANF reporting requirements will be of limited use for research purposes unless steps are taken to improve them. The usefulness of these data will be improved if the data can be linked to other data sets and if the full universe of cases is reported. The panel recommends that ACF take steps to improve the linkability of these data and encourage states to report the full universe of cases.

Recommendation 5.10

Confidentiality, privacy, and access concerns with administrative and survey data and the linking of multiple data sets are important issues, but are currently serving as a barrier to socially important evaluation of welfare reform programs. The importance of access to these data for monitoring and evaluation of programs should be emphasized and efforts to reduce these data access barriers while protecting privacy and maintaining confidentiality should be expanded.

Recommendation 5.11

The monitoring and documentation of the actual policies, programs, and implementations of welfare reform at the state and local levels by the federal government has been minimally adequate to date. The panel recommends that the Department of Health and Human Services take active and direct responsibility for documenting and publishing welfare program rules and policies in every state and in every substate area where needed. Continuing updates documenting changes in state and local area rules should also be produced.

Recommendation 5.12

In its Annual Report to Congress, ASPE should review current availability and quality of data for welfare reform research, identify high priority data needs, and discuss its own research agenda for data development and technical assistance.

Chapter 6 Administrative Issues for Maintaining the Data Infrastructure

Conclusion 6.1

No agency within HHS has distinct administrative authority and responsibility for the collection and development of data relevant to social welfare and human service policies and programs. This administrative gap is a major reason for many of the inadequacies in the data infrastructure for monitoring and evaluating welfare policies.

Recommendation 6.1

The federal government should be responsible for ensuring that high-quality and comparable data on human service and social welfare programs and populations are collected so that the well-being of the low income population can be monitored and so that high-quality evaluations of the effects of welfare reform can be conducted.

Recommendation 6.2

The panel recommends that an organizational entity be identified or created within HHS and that this entity be assigned direct administrative responsibility and authority for carrying out statistical functions and data collection for social welfare programs and the populations they serve. The entity should also coordinate data collection and analysis activities between states and the federal government.

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Appendix B: Findings from ASPE-Funded Leavers Studies

Welfare caseloads have declined dramatically during the past several years. Overall, the welfare caseload has fallen by 8.4 million recipients, from 14.2 million recipients in 1994 to 5.8 million in June 2000, a drop of 59 percent. This is the largest welfare caseload decline in history. As the caseloads have fallen there has been widespread interest in the circumstances of recipients who have left welfare. How are they faring without cash assistance? Are they working? Are they moving out of poverty? To what extent do they return to welfare? To what extent do they continue to need and to receive assistance and supportive services through other programs?

To answer these questions, ASPE awarded approximately $2.9 million in grants to states and counties in FY 1998 to study the outcomes of welfare reform on individuals and families who leave the TANF program, who apply for cash welfare but are never enrolled because of non-financial eligibility requirements or diversion programs, and/or who appear to be eligible but are not enrolled. The 1998 grants were awarded to ten states and three large counties or consortia of counties (Arizona, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin; and Cuyahoga County, Ohio, Los Angeles County, California, and San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Santa Clara Counties, California). Separate but comparable studies were also funded in Iowa (with FY 1999 funding) and South Carolina (in FY 1998 and 2000, as part of a longer-term project) resulting in a total of 15 studies with findings on former recipients as of spring 2001.⁽¹⁾

Following the devolution of welfare programs to the state level, ASPE chose a research strategy that combined local flexibility in study design with some national direction and coordination. Most of the projects used administrative data to track an early cohort of individuals who left welfare around 1996 or 1997. Projects also used a combination of administrative and survey data to track the economic status and general well-being of at least one cohort who left welfare one to two years later, after the transition from AFDC to the TANF program. Projects varied, however, in the number and types of administrative data sets examined and the design of the surveys of former recipients. Final survey sample sizes varied from 277 to over 3,500 cases, response rates ranged from 23 to 81 percent, and approximate time of interview varied from 6 to 30 months after exit, as shown in Table 1. All researchers were encouraged to collect data across multiple dimensions, including employment, program participation, economic status, family structure, child well-being, material hardship, barriers to employment, etc. Grantees designed their own survey instruments, however, which differed in wording and emphasis. While this diversity poses challenges for summarizing results nationally, it has allowed states to meet the demands of their elected officials and program administrators for timely information on families leaving their state's welfare program.

Table 1.
Survey Sample Size, Response Rate, and Timing of Interview

Grantee & Cohort CY (Qtr)	Final Survey Sample Size	Response Rate	Timing of Interview (Mos. post exit)
Arizona 98(1)	821	72%	12-18 months
Florida 97(2)	3548	23%	23-30 months
Georgia 99(1)-00(1)	2935	52%	4-6 months
Illinois 98(4)	514	51%	6-8 months
Iowa 99(2)	405	76%	8-12 months
Massachusetts 99(1)	570	75%	6-16 months
Missouri 96(4)	878	75%	26-34 months
South Carolina 98(4)-99(1)	1072	75%	12-15 months
Washington 98(4)	708	72%	6-8 months
District of Columbia 98(4)	277	61%	10-14 months
Cuyahoga 98(3)	306	81%	18-22 months
San Mateo 98(4)	438	66%	6-12 months

Although each study had its own methodology, ASPE took certain steps to promote comparability across the studies. Chief among these was developing consensus around a common definition of the "leaver" study population as "all cases that leave cash assistance for at least two months." This definition excludes cases that re-open within one or two months; such cases are more likely closed due to administrative "churning" than to true exits from welfare. In addition, through national meetings and an electronic list-serve, ASPE staff facilitated peer networking among researchers, promoted the use of nationally developed questions on topics such as food security and child well-being, and encouraged standardized reporting of certain administrative data outcomes.

As of March 2001, all 15 studies identified above had released preliminary reports based on administrative data findings, and 12 of the 15 also had released reports with more detailed findings from follow-up surveys. Highlights from these reports are presented below, with a focus on outcomes in employment and earnings, recidivism and program participation, and household income and family well-being.⁽²⁾ This summary stresses common findings for "average" welfare leavers in each jurisdiction, without analyzing how outcomes vary for different types of leavers (e.g., urban vs. rural, those who left due to earnings vs. sanctions). Findings are presented for all single-parent leavers in a state or county except where noted otherwise. Observed cross-state differences in outcomes reflect the diverse range of state policies and underlying economic and demographic conditions of the jurisdictions under study, as well as methodological differences in study design.⁽³⁾ A more comprehensive synthesis report, including analysis of how outcomes differ for various subgroups, is expected by Fall 2001.

Employment and Earnings

Employment

Employment outcomes have been quite consistent across the 15 studies. Employment rates of former recipients ranged from 47 to 68 percent in the first quarter after exit according to administrative data (see Table 2). Moreover, employment rates remained fairly constant in the first year after exit in most study areas. This finding does not mean that the same 50 to 60 percent of leavers were employed every quarter. Some former recipients lost their jobs, while others found new employment, with the result that 62 to 90 percent of leavers had earnings at least once within the first four quarters after exit. Between 31 and 47 percent of leavers were employed in all four quarters (data not shown),⁽⁴⁾ according to the eight studies reporting this statistic.

Table 2.
Employment Rates of Former Recipients

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Administrative Data: Employment Rates					Survey Data: Employment Rates
	1st Qtr post exit	2nd Qtr post exit	3rd Qtr post exit	4th Qtr post exit	Any of 4 Qtrs	Employed at Interview	Employed since exit
Arizona 98(1)	53	51	52	50	73	58	--
Florida 97(2)	50	51	53	54	71	57	--
Georgia 99(1)-00(1)	61	63	59	59	--	69	--
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)*	54	53	53	54	69	63	85
Iowa 99(2)	57	42	39	38	69	61	--
Massachusetts 99(1)*	60	61	51	--	68	71	--
Missouri 96(4)*	58	58	59	58	73	65	90
New York 97(1)	50	49	48	48	62	--	--
S. C. 98(4)-99(1)	67	68	67	63	90	60	--
Washington 98(4)	62	58	--	--	--	59	86
Wisconsin 98(2)-(4)*	67	65	67	67	72	--	--
D. C. 97(4)*	54	58	50	52	--	60	--
Cuyahoga 98(3)	68	64	67	64	82	70	92
Los Angeles 96(4)	47	46	46	47	--	--	--
San Mateo 98(4)	55	55	55	--	--	57	--
Notes:  A recipient is considered "employed" if she or he has any earnings in UI-covered employment within the state, except: Cuyahoga and Los Angeles require >$100 per quarter, Washington also counts earnings reported to the welfare system, and D.C. uses data from the National Directory of New Hires. D.C. employment rates would be 8 percentage points higher if leavers without Social Security numbers were excluded from the denominator, as they are in New York, Missouri and possibly other studies.
* Rates are for single-parent leavers, except that Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, Wisconsin, and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers.

Three of six jurisdictions analyzing employment across multiple cohorts found that recipients leaving welfare in 1998 had higher employment rates — by 5 to 10 percentage points — than those leaving in 1996 (data not shown). Two other two jurisdictions, however, found no change and one found a decrease in employment.

Administrative data do not capture all employment: quarterly earnings reported to the states' unemployment insurance (UI) programs do not capture earnings from self-employment, employment in the military or federal government, certain agricultural employment, and jobs across state boundaries. In fact, between 57 and 71 percent of former recipients reported working at time of interview. These self-reported employment rates from survey data were higher than the rates based on administrative data in all but one study (see Table 2). The vast majority of leavers - 85 to 92 percent - reported being employed at least once since exit. In addition, three studies found that the household employment rate (counting earnings of anyone in the household) was 9 to 15 percentage points higher than the individual rate for the leaver herself, or about 72 to 80 percent (data not shown).

Earnings

Median quarterly earnings of former recipients with jobs ranged from $1,900 in South Carolina to $3,400 in Washington, D.C. in the first quarter post-exit (see Table 3). In all reporting locations, quarterly earnings rose over the course of the year following exit.⁽⁵⁾ Median hourly wages, as reported in survey data from eight studies, ranged from $6.50 to $9.00 an hour. Former recipients with jobs worked an average of 33 to 39 hours per week; median hours averaged 40 hours per week.

In sum, the studies were consistent in finding that about three-fifths of leavers were working, generally 40 hours per week, but with relatively low wages and intermittent spells of unemployment. To what extent do families with these patterns of employment and earnings support themselves, and to what extent do they rely on government programs for support?

Table 3.
Earnings of Former Recipients

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Administrative Data: Median Quarterly Earnings				Survey Data: Hourly Wages
	1st Qtr post exit	2nd Qtr post exit	3rd Qtr post exit	4th Qtr post exit	Mean wages	Median wages
Arizona 98(1)**	$2,211	$2,354	$2,695	$2,511	$7.52	--
Florida 97(2)	$2,007	$2,168	$2,167	$2,329	--	--
Georgia 99(1)**	$2,184	$2,319	$2,518	--	--	--
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)	$2,471	$2,527	$2,614	$2,720	--	$7.41
Iowa 99(2)	$2,177	$2,520	$2,332	$2,417	$7.54	--
Massachusetts 9(1)*	$2,645	$2,754	$2,977	--	$8.46	--
Missouri 96(4)*	$1,996	$2,171	$2,200	$2,535	--	--
S. C. 98(4)-99(1)	$1,871	$1,807	$1,904	$2,148	--	$6.50
Washington 98(4)	$2,387	$2,497	--	--	$7.70	$7.00
Wisconsin 98(2)-(4)*	$2,272	$2,362	$2,278	$2,561	--	--
D. C. 97(4) admin.data* D. C. 98(4) survey*	$3,416 --	-- --	$3,395 --	$3,934 --	-- $8.74	-- $8.13
Cuyahoga 98(3)	$2,744	$2,489	$2,663	$2,754	$7.50	--
Los Angeles 96(4)	$3,248	$3,156	$3,303	$3,290	--	--
San Mateo 98(4)	$3,144	$3,439	$3,612	--	--	$9.00
Notes: Excludes leavers without earnings in the quarter. Earnings are reported in nominal dollars.
* Figures are for single-parent leavers, except that Massachusetts, Missouri, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia include small percentages of two-parent leavers. ** Arizona and Georgia quarterly earnings are mean, rather than median, earnings. Median earnings would be somewhat lower.

Program Participation

Returns to TANF

According to data from 15 studies, between 3 and 21 percent of families leaving welfare returned to cash assistance within one quarter (see Table 4). Rates of welfare receipt rose to between 9 and 24 percent in the next quarter. Rates rose very slightly over the next six months, reaching 11 to 25 percent one year after exit. Because some people return to the rolls and then leave again, the proportion that ever returned within the first year after exit was higher, ranging from 17 to 38 percent.⁽⁶⁾

Table 4.
Percentage of Adult Leavers Receiving AFDC/TANF

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Administrative Data: AFDC/TANF Receipt
	1st Qtr (3 mos) post exit	2nd Qtr (6 mos) post exit	3rd Qtr (9 mos) post exit	4th Qtr (12 mos) post exit	Ever receiving within 1 yr
Arizona 98(4)	5.3	12.9	16.6	15.5	27.7
Florida 97(2)	6.5	13.9	12.8	--	26.1
Georgia 99(1)	8.4	14.4	16.4	16.0	--
Illinois 97(2)-98(4)	16.2	18.6	17.5	16.3	28.9
Iowa 99(2)	5.5	14.2	19.0	18.8	30.1
Massachusetts 9(1)*	2.9	10.0	14.3	11.4	18.8
Missouri 96(4)*	12.4	18.6	20.8	20.6	--
New York 97(1)	--	--	--	17.0	--
S. C. 99(4)-00(1)	3.4	8.8	11.7	10.9	17.1
Washington 97(4)	8.0	14.0	16.0	16.0	--
Wisconsin 98(2)-(4)*	18.5	22.1	21.8	19.7	35.5
D.C. 98(4)*	7.5	12.7	16.2	18.8	21.1
Cuyahoga 98(3)	21.1	24.3	25.5	24.9	38.1
San Mateo 98(4)	16.9	20.9	22.8	20.8	--
Notes: Grantees measuring program participation by month — Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New York, the District of Columbia, and San Mateo — are likely to report lower program participation than grantees measuring participation over a three-month quarter. These and other methodological differences have a particularly strong effect on measurement of TANF receipt three months/one quarter after exit, and so differences in the first column of Table 3 should be viewed with caution.
* Figures are for single-parent leavers, except that Massachusetts, Missouri, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia include small percentages of two-parent leavers.

Survey data on returns to TANF are fairly similar to the administrative data. In addition, survey data also found that at least one half of those who returned to TANF did so for a job-related reason, such as job loss or decreases in work hours or wages. Other common reasons for returning to TANF included divorce or separation from partner, pregnancy or birth of a new child, re-compliance with program regulations, loss of other income, problems with child care, and problems with health or medical benefits.

Comparisons of early and later cohorts reveal no clear pattern of returns to welfare (data not shown). As compared with earlier cohorts, recidivism among 1998 leavers was higher in three states but lower in three others. No trend was apparent in two others.

Families leaving in the 1996 to 1999 period did so before they hit the five-year federal time limits on benefit receipt. Thus, most families had the option of returning to cash assistance as needed. Two studies, however, examined cohorts of 1999 leavers who were affected by state time limits of two years. Recidivism rates in these two states — Massachusetts and South Carolina — were lower than rates in other states, as shown in Table 4. Sub-group analysis in these two states indicates that families who left because of time limits were much less likely to be back on welfare at time of interview than other families; only 2 percent of the time-limited families in South Carolina and 8 percent in Massachusetts were back on welfare a year after exit.

Medicaid and Health Insurance

Although the majority of leavers remained off cash assistance, most continued to receive other government support. One of the most common supports was Medicaid, although rates of participation varied considerably across states. As shown in Table 5, between 42 and 80 percent of adult leavers were enrolled in Medicaid in the first quarter post-exit according to administrative data. In many areas, adult enrollment rates dropped 10 percentage points or more by the fourth quarter after exit. Medicaid coverage varied even more dramatically in survey data, ranging from 33 percent in Missouri (measured over 2 years after exit) to 81 percent in Massachusetts (measured slightly under a year after exit). A higher percentage of surveyed leavers — 51 to 83 percent — reported Medicaid coverage for their children, as shown in Table 6.

Table 5.
Adult Health Insurance Status

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Administrative Data: Medicaid Enrollment		Survey Data: Health Insurance Coverage at Interview
	1st Qtr post exit	4th Qtr post exit	Medicaid	Employer Sponsored Insurance	Other Insurance	No Insurance
Arizona 98(1)**	54	40	39	15	5	40
Georgia99(1)-00(1)	--	--	66	--	--	24
Florida 97(2)	55	46	--	--	--	45
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)*	58	40	47	***	21	36
Iowa 99(2)	43	41	48	14	7	37
Massachusetts 9(1)*	--	--	81	--	--	7
Missouri 96(4)*	42	39	33	25	9	32
New York 97(1)	--	35	--	--	--	--
S. C. 98(4)-99(1)	69	45	--	--	--	--
Washington 98(4)*	60	--	56	13	8	26
Wisconsin 98(2)-(4)*	80	76	--	--	--	--
D.C. 98(4)*	--	--	54	19	4	22
Cuyahoga 98(3)	60	46	--	--	--	--
Notes: These rates measure enrollment of the adult head who left TANF. Measures of participation by month - reported by Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New York, and the District of Columbia - are likely to be lower than measures of participation over a three-month quarter.
* Rates are for single-parent leavers, except that Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, Washington (administrative data), Wisconsin, and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers and Washington tracks the Medicaid enrollment of both adults, not just the adult head. ** Arizona data include leavers who return to TANF after one month, as well as the traditional two-month leavers. *** Rates for employer-sponsored insurance in Illinois are included in "other."

Table 6.
Child Health Insurance Status

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Administrative Data: Medicaid Enrollment		Survey Data: Health Insurance Coverage at Interview
	1st Qtr post exit	4th Qtr post exit	Medicaid	Employer Sponsored Insurance	Other Insurance	No Insurance
Arizona 98(1)**	--	--	51	12	8	26
Georgia 99(1)-00(1)	--	--	82	4	3	11
Florida 97(2)	--	--	57	--	--	33
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)*	--	--	53	***	23	29
Iowa 99(2)	56	55	63	11	17	20
Massachusetts 99(1)*	--	--	83	--	--	8
Missouri 96(4)*	85	86	68	14	9	11
New York 97(1)	--	34	--	--	--	--
S. C. 98(4)-99(1)	88	68	85	--	--	--
Washington 98(4)	--	--	67	9	11	13
Wisconsin 98(2)-(4)	86	80	--	--	--	--
D.C. 98(4)*	42	48	60	12	11	16
San Mateo 98(4)	76	59	64	--	28	9
Notes: These rates are the percentage of adult leavers with at least one child on Medicaid (or one member of a family, in Iowa, D. C. and San Mateo). SCHIP is counted as Medicaid in most surveys. As noted in Table 4, above, measures of participation by month - reported by Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New York, the District of Columbia, and San Mateo - are likely to be lower than measures of participation over a three-month quarter.
* Rates are for single-parent leavers, except that Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers. ** Arizona data include leavers who return to TANF after one month, as well as the traditional two-month leavers. *** Rates for employer-sponsored insurance in Illinois are included in "other."

Lack of Medicaid enrollment is not necessarily a problem if leavers have health insurance through employment or other means. However, only 20 to 34 percent of adult leavers reported being covered by employer-sponsored or other insurance; somewhat fewer (7 to 28 percent) reported such coverage for their children. These figures reveal that, in most states, substantial numbers of former recipients and their children were without any health insurance. The percentage of adult leavers without insurance ranged from 7 to 45 percent; rates for children ranged from 8 to 33 percent, for Massachusetts and Florida, respectively. Data in Tables 5 and 6 indicate that lack of health insurance was more prevalent in states with low numbers of leavers enrolled in Medicaid. Survey data from six states (discussed in the section on Material Hardship and displayed in Table 10 below) show the consequences of lack of health insurance coverage.

Some of the state variation in Medicaid enrollment can be explained by differences in survey methodology (e.g., timing and wording of surveys) or in the linking and analysis of administrative data.⁽⁷⁾ Still, the observed cross-state variation is too wide to be solely attributable to measurement differences. Some variation in enrollment is likely to reflect differences in Medicaid eligibility (which is set by states) and in administrative practices, which vary across states and local areas.

Findings from the leavers studies and other research have prompted Federal and state initiatives to ensure that families leaving welfare are not incorrectly denied Medicaid benefits. In their leavers reports, several states mentioned changes in policies or procedures designed to increase Medicaid enrollment among future leaver cohorts. Early trends, between 1996 and 1998, show increased Medicaid enrollment in three jurisdictions, no change in one, and decreased enrollment in another.

Food Stamps and Other Program Participation

Participation in other forms of government assistance was also common, though generally at lower levels than for Medicaid. Participation rates of former recipients in the Food Stamp program, for example, ranged from 23 to 78 percent across 12 studies, with most finding that roughly one-third to one-half of AFDC/TANF leavers received food stamps immediately after exit (see Table 7). Similar rates were found in both administrative and survey data. Food stamp receipt declined in some states over time, but remained constant in others.

Table 7.
Percentage of Leavers Receiving Food Stamps

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Administrative Data: Food Stamp Receipt
	1st Qtr (3 mos) post exit	2nd Qtr (6 mos) post exit	3rd Qtr (9 mos) post exit	4th Qtr (12 mos) post exit	Ever receiving within 1 yr
Arizona 98(1)	39	39	38	35	67
Florida 97(2)	45	41	38
Illinois 7/97-12/98	33	35	34	33	56
Iowa 99(2)	36	37	38	37	65
Massachusetts 99(1)*	42	41	41	38	51
Missouri 96(4)*	57	47	43	40	--
New York 97(1)	--	--	--	21	--
S. C. 99(4)-00(1)	78	68	64	61	88
Washington 97(4)*	47	42	--	--	--
Wisconsin 98(2)-(4)*	70	68	65	63	83
D.C. 98(4)*	36	38	37	38	41
Cuyahoga 98(3)	56	48	48	47	68
San Mateo 98(4)	23	28	29	27	-
Notes: Grantees measuring program participation by month - Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New York, the District of Columbia, and San Mateo - are likely to report lower program participation than grantees measuring participation over a three-month quarter.
* Rates are for single-parent leavers, except that Massachusetts, Missouri, Washington, Wisconsin, and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers.

Other commonly received forms of government assistance included free- and reduced-price school lunches (43 to 87 percent of leavers), the federal Earned Income Tax Credit (32 to 65 percent of former recipients), housing assistance (16 to 60 percent of leavers), and Supplemental Security Income (2 to 12 percent of leavers), according to survey data from several surveys (data not shown). In addition between 11 and 35 percent of former recipients across seven studies reported receiving child support, often secured with help from the child support enforcement agency. As seen below, income from these sources can be an important component of household income.

Household Income and Family Well-Being

Household Income and Poverty Status

Total household income is difficult to measure, particularly in leaver households. Paychecks can vary from month to month, and variations in unearned income and in household composition may generate added instability. Nevertheless, ASPE encouraged researchers to collect survey data on this critical measure of family well-being.

As shown in Table 8, average household cash income of former recipients ranged from $964 to $1440 per month across eight studies. When reported separately, median household incomes were about $200 lower. While not included in these cash income totals, food stamp benefits provided the average household with an additional $96 to $129 per month, according to three studies. (The value of the federal Earned Income Tax Credit also was not included in the cash income totals).

Six of the eight studies shown in Table 8 asked a series of detailed questions probing for income from various specific sources, while two (Illinois and the District of Columbia) simply asked for total household income. Consistent with past research, the surveys that asked multiple income-related questions uncovered higher levels of income than the other two surveys. This pattern of variation suggests that the lower incomes found in Illinois and the District of Columbia may reflect differences in income reporting rather than true differences in income.⁽⁸⁾

Table 8.
Total Household Income and Percentage of Household Income Contributed by Various Sources
(Survey Data)

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Total Cash Income: Mean (Median)	Own Earnings	Others Earnings	AFDC/TANF	Child Support	SSI	Other Income
Arizona 98(1)**	$1,338 (----)	45	40	3	3	5	3
Illinois 97(2)-98(4)*	$964 ($800)	--	--	--	--	--	--
Iowa 99(2)	$1,440 (----)	46	35	4	6	2	7
Missouri 96(4)*	$1,427 ($1,166)	50	20	8	6	6	8
Washington 98(4)	$1,208 ($1,000)	55	28	8	7	1	1
Cuyahoga 98(3)	$1,069 (----)	63	19	6	2	5	5
D. C. 98(4)*	$1,091 ($800)	--	--	--	--	--	--
San Mateo 98(4)	--- ($1,400)	--	--	--	--	--	--
Notes: Total cash income does not include value of food stamps (average of $96 in Iowa, $100 in Cuyahoga and approximately $129 in Arizona). Income information is based on multiple survey questions about income from various sources, except in Illinois and D.C., where the survey asks one question about total household income.
* Figures are for single-parent leavers, except that figures from Illinois, Missouri and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers, who generally have higher incomes. ** In Arizona, sources of income based on a sample of leavers which includes those who return to TANF after one month, as well as the traditional two-month leavers.

Five of the studies provided information about the sources of household income. Earnings were the largest income source: the leaver's own earnings made up 45 to 63 percent of total household income, while earnings of others in the household accounted for an additional 19 to 40 percent. Cash assistance from AFDC or TANF added another 3 to 8 percent. The final 9 to 20 percent of household income came from child support payments, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), and "other" income, including Social Security and survivors' benefits, veterans' benefits, workers' compensation, and financial assistance from others.

Four of the studies with comprehensive income questions also calculated the percentage of former recipients with household income below the federal poverty line. Estimated poverty rates ranged from 41 percent to 58 percent, depending in part on whether food stamps were included in measures of household income.⁽⁹⁾ Many leavers with household incomes at or above the poverty threshold were still close to poverty; the Iowa study found that 63 percent of leavers had income below 130 percent of the poverty threshold, in Cuyahoga 79 percent were below 150 percent of poverty and in Missouri 89 percent had cash incomes below 185 percent of the poverty threshold.

Though these poverty rates are quite high, one study (Washington) reported an even higher poverty rate — 83 percent — among a sample of recipients remaining on welfare for six months. Mean and median household incomes of ongoing recipients also were lower (data are not shown, but were $890 and $642, respectively) than those of former recipients. While the Washington study does not track the same group of people over time, it provides some evidence that economic status improves after exit from welfare.

Family Well-Being and Material Hardship

Partly because of the challenges of measuring income, most leavers surveys also asked directly about family well-being and material hardships resulting from not having enough money. Although surveys varied in wording, they generally asked about hardships related to food shortages, housing problems, and medical hardship.

Between one-eighth and one-half of leavers (13 to 52 percent) of leavers reported some level of food hardship, according to the 12 studies with survey data (see Table 9). Rates of food insecurity ranged from 32 to 46 percent among the three states that measured food insecurity through a standardized six-item questionnaire. About half of these families, or 16 to 26 percent of all leaver families, were classified as food insecure with hunger.⁽¹⁰⁾ Other states, while not using the six-item standardized scale, found similar evidence of food insecurity: 20 to 43 percent of respondents said that adults in the household cut the size of meals or skipped meals and 13 to 52 percent exhibited other signs of food insecurity, such as not being able to buy enough food. Very few leavers reported that children in their households skipped meals (3 to 5 percent, according to two studies).

Table 9.
Percentage of Leavers Reporting Food Hardships Since Exit
(and While on Welfare)

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Food insecure†	Food insecure with hunger†	Adults cut size of or skipped meals	Children skipped meals	Some other sign of food insecurity **
Iowa 99(2)	32	16	--	--	--
Massachusetts 99(1)*	43 (30)	22 (14)	--	--	--
Cuyahoga 98(3)	46	26	--	--	--
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)*	--	--	25 (24)	--	44 (51)
S. C. 98(4)-99(1)***	--	--	20 (14)	--	52
Washington 98(4)*	--	--	43 (39)	5 (4)	--
D.C. 98(4)*	--	--	25	--	46
Arizona 98(1)***	--	--	--	--	24 (30)
Georgia 99(1)-00(1)	--	--	--	--	13 (5)
Florida 97(2)	--	--	--	--	44
Missouri 96(4)*	--	--	--	3	26
San Mateo 98(4)	--	--	--	--	32
Notes: Figures in parentheses are percentage recalling hardship while on welfare (Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, South Carolina) or percentage recalling hardship among a comparison group of recipients remaining on welfare (Georgia, Washington).
* Figures are for single-parent leavers, except that figures from Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers. ** Other signs of food insecurity include: not able to buy enough food (Florida, Missouri); food did not last (Illinois, South Carolina, D.C.); or not enough food to eat (Arizona, Georgia, San Mateo). Other indicators of food insecurity, such as worrying about food running out, are not shown here. *** South Carolina survey data are limited to leavers who do not return to welfare. Arizona leavers include those who returned to TANF after one month, as well as the traditional two-month leavers.
† As explained in Footnote 10, families that answer "yes" to two or more questions on a six-point scale developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture are considered "food insecure," and those that answer "yes" to five or more questions are considered "food insecure with hunger."

Former recipients also reported problems with housing arrangements, although somewhat less frequently than food shortages. As shown in Table 10, the most common problems were falling behind in rent or mortgage (18 to 38 percent across seven studies), loss of utilities (12 to 36 percent of leavers across seven studies) and being forced to move (13 to 32 percent across four studies). Less often, former recipients were evicted (4 to 7 percent), went to a homeless shelter (1 to 7 percent, except one study reported 17 percent), or reported that their children were forced to live elsewhere (3 to 8 percent, except one study reported 19 percent).⁽¹¹⁾

Table 10.
Percentage of Leavers Reporting Housing or Medical Hardships After Exit
(and While on Welfare)

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Utilities cut off	Behind in rent/ mortgage	Had to move because could not pay	Evicted	Stayed at homeless shelter	Child had to live elsewhere	Unable to get needed medical care
Arizona 98(1)***	12 (18)	37 (41)	17 (21)	--	3 (4)	8 (9)	24 (14)
Georgia 99(1)-00(1)	12	18	--	4	--	--	10
Florida 97(2)	36	--	32	--	17****	19****	--
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)*	14 (26)	38 (45)	13 (15)	--	3 (4)	8 (9)	31 (26)
Iowa 99(2)	--	25	--	--	7	--	--
Massachusetts 99(1)*	26 (20)	--	--	--	2 (1)	3 (1)	--
Missouri 96(4)*	--	26	--	--	--	--	--
S. C. 98(4)-99(1)***	--	33	--	--	2 (3)	5 (5)	10 (4)
Washington 98(4)	12 (12)	--	--	7 (3)	1 (2)	3 (2)	--
D.C. 98(4)*	--	27 (27)	--	--	3 (5)	5 (6)	8 (3)
Cuyahoga 98(3)	19	--	26	**	**	--	10
Notes: Figures in parentheses are percentage recalling hardship while on welfare (Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, South Carolina, D.C.) or percentage recalling hardship among a comparison group of recipients remaining on welfare (Washington).
* Figures are for single-parent leavers, except that figures from Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri and D.C. include small percentages of two-parent leavers. ** In Cuyahoga, 7 percent were either evicted or lived in homeless shelter. *** South Carolina survey data are limited to leavers who do not return to welfare. Arizona leavers include those who returned to TANF after one month, as well as the traditional two-month leavers. **** The findings from Florida should be viewed with caution, because figures were imputed for the 77 percent of the sample that could not be located by telephone. The raw, unadjusted percentages, reported in an appendix to their final report, were closer to those reported by other states (4 percent homeless and 8 percent with children living elsewhere).

Studies were split as to whether housing and food shortages were greater before or after exit; some found more hardship after exit, some found less hardship after exit, and some showed little difference. None of the leavers studies reported a significant change in use of homeless shelters before and after exit, or in experiences with separations of children from the family.

Six studies also examined medical hardship, and found that between 8 percent and 31 percent of leavers in the six sites reported that they or someone in their household was unable to get needed medical attention since leaving welfare because they could not afford it. Studies consistently reported more difficulty getting needed medical care after exit than while on welfare.

Finally, when directly asked about overall economic well-being or standard of living, 46 to 68 percent of families in five states reported they were better off financially after exit; 16 to 32 percent said they were the same, and 13 to 30 percent said they were worse off (see Table 11).

Table 11.
Overall Economic Well-being Before and After Leaving Welfare
(Survey Data)

Grantee & Cohort CY(Qtr)	Better Off	Same	Worse Off
Arizona 98(1)**	68	16	15
Illinois 97(3)-98(4)*	57	30	13
Iowa 99(2)	49	32	19
Massachusetts 99(1)*	46	24	30
Washington 98(4)	60	19	21
* Figures are for single-parent leavers, except that figures from Illinois and Massachusetts include small percentages of two-parent leavers. ** Arizona leavers include those who returned to TANF after one month, as well as the traditional two-month leavers.

Conclusion

In sum, findings across the 15 studies showed that about three-fifths of leavers were working, generally 40 hours per week. Former recipients experienced intermittent spells of unemployment and financial hardship, however, and about one-fourth to one-third returned to welfare at least once in the first year after exit in most states studied. Although quarterly earnings rose over time, total household incomes remained fairly low, averaging about $1,400 or less per month. Access to health insurance and food stamps appeared problematic for some recipients, and there also were reports of food shortages and inability to get needed medical attention. Evidence was mixed as to whether material hardships were greater before or after exit; families generally reported that they are better off overall after leaving welfare.

Other Outcomes Data

The descriptive statistics highlighted above provide some important insights into the outcomes and well-being of individuals and families leaving welfare. However, they do not represent the sum total of the rich administrative and survey data collected by states and counties under the ASPE-funded grants. Links to most of the individual state and county reports can be found at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/reports.htm>. The initial synthesis report by the Urban Institute is posted on the same web site, at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/synthesis01/index.htm>. In addition, ASPE is working collaboratively with the grantees and a technical assistance contractor to make the grantees' welfare outcomes data files available to researchers for secondary analyses. Information on how to secure access to these data files can be found on the ASPE-sponsored web page on Welfare Leavers and Diversion Studies at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/index.htm>.

Endnotes

1.  In addition to funding the Iowa leavers study in FY 1999, ASPE funded leavers studies in Texas and in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties, California, as well as several applicant/diversion studies. Also in FY 1999, ASPE awarded an additional $837,000 for continuations and extensions of several of the FY 1998 leavers projects. In addition, $1.236 million was awarded in FY 2000 to enhance some existing studies of welfare-related outcomes. In all, ASPE has committed over $5 million to state and county grantees to study welfare outcomes.

2.  Findings presented here are based on an Initial Synthesis Report of the Findings From ASPE's "Leavers" Grants (prepared by the Urban Institute and available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/synthesis01/index.htm>; "A Cross-State Examination of Families Leaving Welfare:  Findings from the ASPE-Funded Leavers Studies," prepared by ASPE staff and available at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/cross-state00/index.htm>; and ASPE staff analyses of reports submitted between November 2000 and March 2001.

3.  Cross-state comparisons are affected by a variety of factors, ranging from state sanction policies, maximum benefit levels and earnings disregard policies, to survey sample sizes, time of interview and response rates. They are also affected by the underlying economic, social and demographic conditions of the study sites. Some observed differences also reflect methodological issues, including questionnaire design or population under study. Brief summaries of the projects can be found at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/fy98.htm>. Information on comparing survey instruments can be found at <http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/leavers99/cross.htm#comparing>.

4.  These individuals may not have been employed in every month, however, since UI records are based on quarterly earnings, reflecting any covered employment during that quarter.

5.  Data from the UI system are limited to aggregate quarterly earnings, without underlying information about hourly wages or hours worked in a quarter. Therefore, the data do not indicate whether increased earnings are due to wage rate increases or more hours of work. Also, since leavers without earnings in the quarter are excluded when calculating mean earnings, the earnings increases could also be due to low earners dropping out of the labor market.

6.  Recidivism rates would be higher if the studies had included those who exited for less than two months. Also note that recidivism was generally lower in studies that measured it on a monthly basis than in those that observed welfare receipt over a quarterly (three-month) period.

7.  The potential for measurement variation can be seen in the fact that two studies — Missouri and San Mateo — more than doubled their initial enrollment rates from administrative data. In both cases, researchers re-analyzed administrative data and classified additional eligibility codes as "Medicaid" enrollment, after noting large discrepancies between administrative and survey data. Earlier syntheses of findings from leavers grantees showed a wider range in Medicaid enrollment rates, based on the initial reports by Missouri and San Mateo.

8.  In fact, both quarterly earnings and hourly wages of leavers in Illinois and the District of Columbia were comparable or higher than those in the other regions.

9.  Poverty rates were 41 percent in Iowa (counting cash and food stamps), 47 percent in Iowa (counting cash income only), 57 percent in Cuyahoga County (counting cash and food stamps), and 58 percent in both Missouri and Washington (counting cash only). The official poverty measure does not include food stamps; food stamp benefits are included, however, in alternative poverty measures recommended by a panel from the National Academy of Sciences. The Panel on Poverty and Family Assistance also recommended that poverty measures take into account the effects of other non-cash benefits, taxes (such as the EITC) and work expenses.

10.  The six-item scale is an abbreviated version of a broader 18-question scale developed by the U. S. Department of Agriculture. Families that answer yes to two or more questions on the six-item scale are considered "food insecure" and those that answer yes to five or more questions are considered "food insecure with hunger." National estimates of food insecurity, based on the 18-item scale, indicate that 37 percent of families below the poverty threshold were food insecure in 1999, including 12 percent who were food insecure with hunger (U. S. Department of Agriculture, Household Food Security in the United States, 1999). Estimates from the six-item scale are generally comparable with those from the broader scale.

11.  The atypically high rates of homelessness (19 percent) and removals of children (17 percent) were from the same study, Florida. These results should be viewed with caution, because figures were imputed for the 73 percent of the sample that could not be located by telephone. The raw, unadjusted percentages, reported in an appendix, were closer to those reported by other states (4 percent homeless and 8 percent with children living elsewhere).