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Foreword
Acknowledgments
List of Tables
List of Figures
III. Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt
Appendices
References
The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Department of Health and Human Services to prepare annual reports to Congress on indicators and predictors of welfare dependence. This first Annual Report on Welfare Indicators was developed with the advice and recommendations of the bipartisan Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators and the assistance of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Social Security Administration and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. This report marks a significant step toward achieving the stated purpose of the law -- "to provide the public with generally accepted measures of welfare receipt so that it can track such receipt over time and determine whether progress is being made in reducing the rate at which and, to the extent feasible, the degree to which, families depend on income from welfare programs and the duration of welfare receipt."
This report is the direct result of the foresight and leadership of Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He sponsored the Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 to make it clear that reduction in welfare dependence is a national goal, and that regular measurement and assessment of progress toward that goal is necessary. The act calls for such measures, just as, for example, the Employment Act of 1946 called for regular measures that led to a better understanding of the critical problem of unemployment in this country. In introducing the bill, Senator Moynihan declared that the policy and responsibility of the Federal Government must be to strengthen families and promote their self-sufficiency. This report is a first step in documenting our progress toward that goal.
We recognize that it is difficult to develop consensus around a single measure of welfare dependence. Nevertheless, in an effort to be responsive to the intent of the Welfare Indicators Act, this report proposes for discussion and debate a definition of welfare dependence that was developed by the Advisory Board:
A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.
The Advisory Board's recommended definition is consistent with the working definition of "dependence" we adopted in last year's Interim Report that incorporated elements of degree and duration of receipt and behavior of the recipient. It takes a comprehensive view of dependence -- one that considers the range as well as the depth of dependence through indicators that measure how much and how long assistance is received, as well as whether the assistance supplements or supplants earnings. The recommended definition would count as work activities only unsubsidized and subsidized employment and work required to obtain benefits.
The proposed definition, unfortunately, cannot be measured precisely at this time with currently available data. Two data issues present potential problems. First, current data do not distinguish between cash benefits where work is required and cash benefits that are paid without any work effort. Thus, while income from private employment can be excluded in calculating welfare benefits, it is not currently possible to exclude work that is required to obtain benefits. Second, this report uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to obtain measures of the proposed definition. The SIPP, like all large-scale surveys, has a significant time lag. For example, the most recent SIPP data currently available are for 1993. In spite of these relatively minor measurement problems, however, we believe this proposed definition of welfare dependence marks an important development, and we welcome further discussion of it.
In addition to discussing the proposed definition of dependence, this report highlights a few specific indicators of dependence that were recommended for consideration by the Advisory Board at their most recent meeting. It also presents for consideration a broader set of indicators of welfare recipiency and dependence, as well as a wide-ranging collection of predictors, or risk factors associated with welfare receipt. The Advisory Board was in agreement that, since the causes of welfare receipt and dependence are not clearly known, the report should include a larger set of risk factors associated with welfare receipt. Nonetheless, the report reduces the overall number of predictors and risk factors by about 20 percent from the number included in last year's Interim Report. Indicators of deprivation supplement the dependence indicators to ensure that dependence measures are not assessed in isolation.
Finally, we would note that the annual Indicators reports should be viewed in the context of the wide array of research and evaluation efforts supported and carried out by this Department, other Federal agencies, and the broader research community regarding the effects of the PRWORA and state and local welfare reform efforts on dependency and deprivation. Together, these research efforts should provide us with a rich array of information which no one approach could generate alone. We hope the Indicators report will focus and enrich these efforts and carry out Senator Moynihan's vision, by focusing researchers on the critical issue of dependency and shining a spotlight on national trends.
We are grateful to the members of the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators for their hard work and wise counsel on this important and difficult issue.
Donna E. Shalala
Secretary
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
This first annual report on Indicators of Welfare Dependence benefits from the contributions of many people and could not have been completed without their efforts. The Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators, established by the Welfare Indicators Act of 1994, and appointed by the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the President, provided critical direction and wise counsel throughout the development of this report. Members of the Advisory Board include:
Eloise Anderson, Director, California Department of Social Services
Jo Anne B. Barnhart
Paul E. Barton, Director, Policy Information Center, Educational Testing Service
Martin H. Gerry, Director, Center for Study of Family, Neighborhood, and Community Policy, University of Kansas
Judith M. Gueron, President, Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation
Robert Greenstein, Executive Director, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Wade Horn, Director, National Fatherhood Initiative
Marvin H. Kosters, Resident Scholar and Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute
Gerald H. Miller, Senior Vice President and Managing Director - Welfare Reform, Lockheed Martin IMS
Kristin A. Moore, Executive Director, Child Trends, Inc.
Joan M. Reeves, Commissioner, Philadelphia Department of Human Services
Gary J. Stangler, Director, Missouri Department of Social Services
Staff from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Service, and the Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division made valuable contributions to the report and were extremely helpful in gathering and providing data for use throughout the report.
Finally, vital assistance was provided by Greg Duncan of the Northwestern University Institute for Policy Research and Johanne Boisjoly of the Universite du Quebec a Rimouski, Departement des Sciences Humaines. They gathered and provided data on proposed indicators and assisted in drafting and producing the Interim Report.
Chapter I
SUM 1. Percent of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs
SUM 2. Percent of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Various Means-Tested Assistance Programs, 1992
SUM3. AFDC Receipt and Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years
SUM 4. Trends in Poverty with and without Means-Tested Benefits for All Persons, 1979 - 1995
SUM 5. Trends in Poverty with and without Means-Tested Benefitsfor All Persons in Families with Related Children Under Age 18, 1979 - 1995
Chapter II
IND 1a. Percent of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, Selected Years
IND 1b. Percent of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years
IND 1c. Percent of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1992
IND 2. Changes in the Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance from 1992 to 1993
IND 3. Duration of First Spells that Combine AFDC Receipt and No Employment, 1983 - 1989
IND 4. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1993
IND 5. Percent of All AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Recipients with Various Spell Lengths, 1992 SIPP Panel
IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long-Term Receipt
IND 7. Percent of the Total Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs
IND 8a. Percent of First AFDC Episode Beginnings Associated with Specific Events
IND 8b. Percent of First AFDC Episode Endings Associated with Specific Events
IND 9a. AFDC Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years
IND 9b. Food Stamp Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years
IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years
IND 10a. AFDC Caseload as a Percent of Eligible Families
IND 10b Food Stamp Households as a Percent of Eligible Households
IND 10c. SSI Adult Recipients by Type as a Percent of Eligible Group
IND 11. Percent of Non-Recipients Moving onto Means-Tested Assistance and Percent of Recipients Moving off Means-Tested Assistance from 1992 to 1993
IND 12. Association of Benefit Receipt Between Parents and their Sons and Daughters
Chapter III
ECON 1. Percent in Poverty
ECON 2. Percent of Individuals Moving into and out of Poverty Between 1992 and 1993
ECON 3. Percent of Individuals in Poverty by Spell Length, 1992 SIPP Panel
ECON 4. Percent of Individuals Living in Poverty by Number of Years in Poverty
ECON 5a. Percent of First Poverty Episode Beginnings Associated with Specific Events
ECON 5b. Percent of First Poverty Episode Endings Associated with Specific Events
ECON 6. Poverty Transitions Between Childhood and Adulthood
ECON 7. Antipoverty Effectiveness of Cash and Near-Cash Transfers for All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18, Selected Fiscal Years
ECON 8a. Total Non-AFDC and AFDC Title IV-D Child Support Collections, 1978 - 1996
ECON 8b1. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Noncustodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment, 1986 - 1996
ECON 8b2. Proportion of IV-D Cases with Orders and Collections and Proportion of Amount Paid to Amount Due, FY 1996
ECON 8c. Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Child Support and Alimony by Marital Status and Receipt of Income Assistance, 1978 - 1995
ECON 8d. Children Under 18 Born Outside of Marriage with Paternity Established
ECON 9. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, 1995
ECON 10. Percent of Persons Without Health Insurance by Age, 1996
ECON 11. Percent of Children Residing in High-Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990
ECON 12. Percent of Individuals and Families who Moved in a Given One-Year Period
ECON 13. Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners Under State or Federal Jurisdiction per 100,000 Resident Population
WORK 1. Percent of All Individuals in Families with One or More Workers, 1993
WORK 2. Percent of All Men and Women Age 18 to 65 with no more than a High School Education who are Employed
WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with no more than a High School Education, 1995 Dollars
WORK 4. Percent of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, 1994
WORK 5. Percent of Adults who used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, Selected Years
WORK 6. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Age 0 to 17, 1984 - 1994
WORK 7. Percent of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993
WORK 8. Percent of Adults Age 25 and over by Level of Educational Attainment
WORK 9. Percent of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year who were not Enrolled and had not Graduated in the Survey Year
TEEN 1. Percent of Births that are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups
TEEN 2. Percent of All Births that are to Unmarried Teens Age 15 to 19
TEEN 3. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women Within Age Groups
TEEN 4. Percentage of High School Students Grades 9 to 12 who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse by Gender, Grade and Race, 1995
TEEN 5. Percent of All Children Living in Families Headed by Never-Married Women
TEEN 6. Percentage of Youth Age 16 to 19 who are Neither in School nor Working
TEEN 7. Percent of Teens Age 12 to 17 who used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, Selected Years
TEEN 8. Arrest Rates for Violent Crime for Youth Age 10 to 18, 1965 - 1994 (per 100,000 Teens)
APPENDICES
Appendix A
A-1. Trends in AFDC/TANF Enrollments, 1970 - 1997
A-2. Trends in AFDC/TANF Average Payments, 1970 - 1997
A-3. Total, Federal and State AFDC/TANF Expenditures, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1997
A-4. Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996
A-5. Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage of Various Population Groups, 1970 - 1997
A-6. AFDC Characteristics, 1969 - 1996
A-7. Total AFDC Expenditures by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978 - 1996
A-8. Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and Family Assistance Grants Under PRWORA
A-9. Average Monthly AFDC Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1996
A-10. AFDC Caseload by State, October 1989 to May 1997 Peak
A-11. Average Number of AFDC Child Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1996
A-12. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1996
A-13. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1996
A-14. Trends in Food Stamp Participation, 1970 - 1997
A-15. Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, 1970 - 1997
A-16. Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 1980 - 1995
A-17. Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978 - 1996
A-18. Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1996
A-19. Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 - 1996
A-20. Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments, 1974 - 1997
A-21. Federal and State SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 - 1996
A-22. Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 - 1996
A-23. SSI Participation Rates, 1974 - 1997
A-24. Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments and State Supplementary Payments, Fiscal 1996
A-25. SSI Recipiency Rates by State and Program Type, for 1979 and 1996
A-26. SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 - 1996
Appendix B
B-1. The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap from Cash and Non-Cash Transfers for All Persons, 1979 - 1995
B-2. The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap from Cash and Non-Cash Transfers for Persons in Families with Children Under 18 Years, 1979 - 1995
B-3. Poverty Rate of Related Children Under 18 by State, Selected Years 1969 - 1996
B-4. Poverty Rate of All Persons by State, Selected Years 1969 - 1996
B-5. Number and Percent of Persons in Poverty by Family Relationship for All Races, 1959 - 1996
B-6. Percent of Persons in Poverty by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, 1959 - 1996
B-7. AFDC Benefit Levels for a Mother and Two Children with No Earnings
B-8. AFDC and Food Stamp Benefit Levels for a Mother and Two Children with No Earnings by State
B-9. Civilian Unemployment Rate, Selected Years 1979 - 1997
Appendix C
Comparison of Interim Report Indicators and Annual Report Indicators and Risk Factors
Appendix D
D-1. Percent of Births that are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups by Race
Chapter I
SUM 4. Trends in Poverty with and without Means-Tested Benefits for All Persons, 1979 - 1995
SUM 5. Trends in Poverty with and with Means-Tested Benefits for All Persons in Families with Related Children under Age 18, 1979 - 1995
Chapter II
IND 1a. Percent of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, 1993
IND 1b. Percent of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years
IND 1c. Percent of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1992
IND 2. Changes in the Percent of Income From Means-Tested Assistance from 1992 to 1993
IND 3. Duration of First Spells that Combine AFDC Receipt and No Employment,
1983 - 1989
IND 4. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1993
IND 5. Percent of All AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Recipients with Various Spell Lengths, 1992 SIPP Panel
IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long-Term Receipt
IND 7. Percent of the Total Population Receiving AFDC and Food Stamps
IND 9a. AFDC Recipients as a Percent of the Population
IND 9b. Food Stamp Recipients as a Percent of the Population
IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population
IND 10a. AFDC Caseload as a Percent of Eligible Families
IND 10b. Food Stamp Households as a Percent of Eligible Households
IND 10c. SSI Adult Recipients as a Percent of Eligible Adults
IND 11. Percent of Non-Recipients Moving onto Assistance and Percent of Recipients Moving off Assistance from 1992 to 1993
IND 12a. Percent of Females who did NOT Receive AFDC or Food Stamps Between the Ages of 14 and 16 but Received Benefits Between the Ages of 25 and 27
IND 12b. Percent of Females who Received AFDC or Food Stamps All THREE YEARS Between the Ages of 14 and 16 who also Received Benefits Between the Ages of 25 and 27
Chapter III
ECON 1. Percent in Poverty
ECON 2. Percent of Individuals Moving into and out of Poverty Between 1992 and 1993
ECON 3. Percent of Children in Poverty by Spell Length, 1992 SIPP Panel
ECON 4. Percent of Children Age 0 to 5 in 1972 or 1982 Living in Poverty by Number of Years in Poverty
ECON 6. Poverty Transitions Between Childhood and Adulthood
ECON 7. Poverty Rate of All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18 Using Alternative Definitions of Income, 1979 - 1995
ECON 8a. Total Non-AFDC and AFDC Title IV-D Child Support Collections, 1978 - 1996
ECON 8b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Noncustodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment, 1986 - 1996
ECON 8c. Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Child Support by Marital Status and Receipt of Income Assistance, 1978 - 1996
ECON 8d. Children Under 18 Born Outside of Marriage with Paternity Established
ECON 9. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, 1995
ECON 10. Percent of Persons Without Health Insurance by Age, 1996
ECON 11. Percent of Children Residing in High-Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990
ECON 12. Percent of Individuals and Families who Moved in a Given One-Year Period
ECON 13. Estimated Number of Sentenced Male Prisoners Under State or Federal Jurisdiction per 100,000 Resident Population
WORK 1. Percent of All Individuals in Families with One or More Workers, 1993
WORK 2. Percent of all Men and Women Age 18 to 65 with no more than a High School Education who are Employed
WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with no more than a High School Education, 1995 Dollars
WORK 4. Percent Reporting a Functional Disability, 1994
WORK 5. Percent of Adults who used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, 1996
WORK 7. Percent of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993
WORK 8. Percent of Adults Age 25 and over by Level of Educational Attainment
WORK 9. Percent of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year who were not Enrolled and had not Graduated in the Survey Year
TEEN 1. Percent of Births that are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups
TEEN 2. Percent of All Births that are to Unmarried Teens Age 15 to 19
TEEN 3a. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Age 15 to 17
TEEN 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Age 18 to 19
TEEN 4. Percentage of High School Students Grades 9 to 12 who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse by Grade, 1995
TEEN 5. Percent of All Children Living in Families Headed by Never-Married Women
TEEN 7. Percent of Teens Age 12 to 17 who used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol
TEEN 8. Arrest Rates for Violent Crime for Youth Age 15 to 18, 1965 - 1994 (per 100,000 Teens)
APPENDICES
Appendix A
A-1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance
A-2. Average Number of Children per Family for Families with Related Children Under 18 by Living Arrangement, 1960 - 1996
A-3. Average Monthly AFDC Benefit by Family and Recipient in Current and Constant Dollars
A-4. Characteristics of AFDC Recipients
A-5. Characteristics of Food Stamp Recipients
A-6. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 - 1996
A-7. Number and Percentage Distribution of Persons Age 15 or Older with Supplemental Security Income, by Race and Hispanic Origin
Appendix B
B-1. The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap From Cash and Non-Cash Transfers for All Person, 1979 - 1995
B-2. The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap From Cash and Non-Cash Transfers for Persons in Families with Children Under 18 Years, 1979 - 1995
B-3. Number of Persons Living in Poverty, Unemployed and Receiving Food Stamps and AFDC, 1959 - 1996
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