Indicators of Welfare Dependence: Annual Report to Congress, 2003

Chapter II.
Indicators of Dependence

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Contents

Following the format of the previous annual reports to Congress, Chapter II presents summary data related to indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested measuring dependence as the proportion of families with more than 50 percent of their total income in a one-year period coming from cash assistance through the AFDC (now TANF) program, food stamps and SSI benefits. Furthermore, this welfare income was not to be associated with work activities.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about dependence, following, to the extent feasible, the definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus, it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence; that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities.

Instead, this chapter includes some indicators that focus on the percentage of recipients' income from means-tested assistance, while other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt. Still other indicators present summary data and characteristics on all recipients, not limited to those with more than 50 percent of total income from welfare programs or those without work activities.

Overall, the indicators of dependency were selected to reflect both the range and depth of dependence. This chapter focuses on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: cash assistance through the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, benefits under the Food Stamp Program, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for elderly and disabled recipients.

Here is a brief summary of each of the eleven indicators:

Indicator 1: Degree of Dependence. This indicator focuses most closely on those individuals who meet the Advisory Board's proposed definition of "dependence." In addition to examining individuals with more than 50 percent of their annual family income from AFDC/TANF cash assistance, food stamps and/or SSI benefits, it shows various levels of dependence by examining those with more than 0 percent, 25 percent, and 75 percent of their income from these sources (Indicators 1a and 1b). This indicator also shows the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings received by families with various levels of income relative to the poverty level (Indicators 1c and 1d).

Indicator 2. Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment. This indicator looks further at the relationship between receipt of means-tested assistance and participation in the labor force. This is an important issue because of the significant number of low-income individuals who use a combination of means-tested assistance and earnings from the labor force to get by each month.

Indicator 3. Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance. This indicator paints yet another picture of dependence by measuring recipiency rates, that is, the percentage of the population that receives AFDC/TANF, food stamps, or SSI in an average month. Program administrative data make these figures readily available over time, allowing a better sense of historical trends than is available from the more specialized indicators of dependence.

Indicator 4. Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs. While means-tested public assistance programs are open to all that meet their requirements, not all eligible households participate in the programs. This indicator uses administrative data and microsimulation models to reflect "take up rates" - the number of families that actually participate in the programs as a percentage of those who are legally eligible.

Indicator 5. Multiple Program Receipt. Depending on their circumstances, individuals may choose a variety of different means-tested assistance "packages." This indicator looks at the percentage of individuals receiving AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in a month, examining how many rely on just one of these programs, and how many rely on a combination of two programs.

Indicator 6. Dependence Transitions. This indicator uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to look at the ability of individuals who are dependent on welfare in one year to make the transition out of dependence in the following year.

Indicator 7. Dependence Spell Duration. Like Indicator 6, this indicator is concerned with dynamics of welfare receipt and welfare dependence. It shows the proportion of individuals with short, medium, and long spells, or episodes, of AFDC or TANF receipt. The focus is on individuals in AFDC/TANF families with no labor force participants.

Indicator 8. Program Spell Duration. One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. Like Indicator 7, this indicator provides information on short, medium, and long spells of welfare receipt. It differs from Indicator 7 in looking at all recipients, regardless of attachment to the labor force, and in analyzing recipients of each of the three major means-tested programs - AFDC/TANF, the Food Stamp Program, and SSI.

Indicator 9. Long-Term Dependency. This indicator uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine dependency over three separate ten-year time periods. It measures dependency as individuals with more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps, not counting SSI.

Indicator 10. Long-Term Receipt. Many individuals who leave welfare programs cycle back on after an absence of several months. Thus it is important to look beyond individual program spells, measured in Indicator 8, to examine the cumulative amount of time individuals receive assistance over a period of several years.

Indicator 11. Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells. To gain a better understanding of welfare dynamics, it is important to go beyond measures of spell duration and examine information regarding the major events in people's lives that are correlated with the beginnings or endings of program spells. This measure focuses on receipt of AFDC.

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Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence

Figure IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 2000

Figure IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 2000.

Table IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2000
  0% >0% and
<=25%
>25% and
<=50%
>50% and
<=75%
>75% and
<=100%
Total
>50%
All Persons 87.5 7.3 2.2 1.0 2.0 3.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 91.8 5.1 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.9
Non-Hispanic Black 73.0 14.2 5.0 2.3 5.4 7.7
Hispanic 79.0 12.3 4.2 1.6 2.9 4.5
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-17 82.2 9.3 3.6 1.9 2.9 4.9
Women Ages 16-64 87.6 7.4 2.0 1.0 2.1 3.0
Men Ages 16-64 90.8 6.1 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.9
Adults Age 65 and over 89.6 6.2 2.1 0.7 1.4 2.1
Family Categories
Individuals in Married Couple Families 92.8 5.2 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.9
Individuals in Female-Headed Families 62.9 17.5 8.2 4.7 6.8 11.4
Individuals in Male-Headed Families 78.2 13.5 3.9 1.4 3.0 4.4
Unrelated Individuals 89.9 5.1 1.3 0.6 3.2 3.8
Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps. Total >50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Income includes cash income and the value of food stamps. Spouses are not present in the Female-Headed and Male-Headed family categories.
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1b.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1993-2000
  0% >0% and
<=25%
>25% and
<=50%
>50% and
<=75%
>75% and
<=100%
Total
>50%
1993 83.4 7.8 3.0 1.8 4.1 5.9
1994 82.8 8.4 3.1 1.8 4.0 5.8
1995 83.2 8.5 3.1 1.8 3.5 5.3
1996 84.0 7.8 3.1 1.9 3.3 5.2
1997 85.3 7.7 2.5 1.5 3.1 4.5
1998 86.5 7.3 2.5 1.3 2.5 3.8
1999 86.7 7.7 2.3 1.1 2.2 3.3
2000 87.5 7.3 2.2 1.0 2.0 3.0
Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps. Total >50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Income includes cash income and the value of food stamps.
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Figure IND 1b.
Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 2000

IND 1b. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status:2000

Table IND 1c.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status, Race/Ethnicity, and Age: 2000
  < 50%of
poverty
<100% of
poverty
<200% of
poverty
200%+ of
poverty
All
Individuals
All Persons
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 54.3 30.3 9.8 0.2 1.0
Earnings 30.5 49.5 68.7 86.7 85.3
Other Income 15.2 20.3 21.5 13.0 13.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 50.6 27.8 7.7 0.1 0.5
Earnings 31.6 45.4 63.8 85.8 84.7
Other Income 17.8 26.7 28.6 14.1 14.8
Non-Hispanic Black
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 59.6 39.0 15.2 0.5 3.2
Earnings 24.6 40.1 65.4 88.8 84.5
Other Income 15.9 20.9 19.4 10.7 12.3
Hispanic
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 51.9 25.3 9.2 0.7 2.7
Earnings 38.4 64.0 80.2 92.2 89.3
Other Income 9.7 10.7 10.6 7.1 7.9
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 61.6 34.5 11.9 0.2 1.8
Earnings 26.6 54.6 79.5 94.1 92.2
Other Income 11.8 10.9 8.6 5.7 6.1
Children Ages 6-10
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 60.2 34.5 11.2 0.1 1.6
Earnings 26.1 53.3 79.1 93.2 91.3
Other Income 13.7 12.3 9.8 6.7 7.1
Children Ages 11-15
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 59.9 31.2 10.8 0.2 1.3
Earnings 26.7 53.6 76.4 92.2 90.5
Other Income 13.4 15.3 12.8 7.6 8.2
Women Ages 16-64
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 50.1 31.0 10.4 0.2 0.9
Earnings 32.7 49.3 72.3 89.2 88.1
Other Income 17.2 19.6 17.3 10.5 11.0
Men Ages 16-64          
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 40.4 25.0 7.9 0.2 0.6
Earnings 42.8 55.8 76.1 90.7 89.9
Other Income 16.8 19.2 16.0 9.2 9.5
Adults Age 65 and over          
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 40.9 20.9 7.1 0.4 1.1
Earnings 12.6 4.5 9.3 36.0 32.9
Other Income 46.4 74.7 83.6 63.6 65.9
Note: Total income is total annual family income, including the value of food stamps. Other income is non means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive.
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1d.
Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources: Selected Years
  < 50% of
poverty
<100% of
poverty
<200% of
poverty
200%+ of
poverty
1995
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 65.9 41.3 14.2 0.3
Earnings 22.5 40.4 64.8 85.4
Other Income 11.6 18.3 21.0 14.3
1999
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 53.1 29.8 9.7 0.2
Earnings 30.2 49.3 69.1 85.0
Other Income 16.6 20.8 21.2 14.7
2000
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 54.3 30.3 9.8 0.2
Earnings 30.5 49.5 68.7 86.7
Other Income 15.2 20.3 21.5 13.0
Note: Total income is total annual family income, including the value of food stamps. Other income is non means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive.
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

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Indicator 2. Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment

Figure IND 2.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants in that Month, by Program: 2000

Figure IND 2. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants in that Month, by Program: 2000

Table IND 2a.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program, Race/Ethnicity, and Age: 2000
    No one in LF At least one in LF,
No one FT
At least one
FT worker
TANF All Persons 41.2 24.1 34.7
  Non-Hispanic White 37.2 26.6 36.2
  Non-Hispanic Black 46.9 22.2 30.9
  Hispanic 40.8 24.3 34.9
  Children Ages 0-5 42.8 22.0 35.3
  Children Ages 6-10 42.3 25.6 32.1
  Children Ages 11-15 43.5 21.1 35.4
  Women Ages 16-64 41.0 24.7 34.3
  Men Ages 16-64 32.0 29.3 38.8
  Adults Age 65 and over 39.3 23.5 37.2
FOOD STAMPS All Persons 43.9 20.6 35.5
  Non-Hispanic White 45.9 20.3 33.8
  Non-Hispanic Black 44.9 20.6 34.5
  Hispanic 37.4 21.4 41.2
  Children Ages 0-5 35.9 21.7 42.4
  Children Ages 6-10 35.6 23.0 41.4
  Children Ages 11-15 36.3 21.5 42.2
  Women Ages 16-64 44.1 21.3 34.6
  Men Ages 16-64 44.5 21.6 33.9
  Adults Age 65 and over 87.3 7.3 5.4
SSI All Persons 62.9 7.7 29.4
  Non-Hispanic White 68.1 7.2 24.8
  Non-Hispanic Black 65.8 8.1 26.1
  Hispanic 48.8 7.5 43.7
  Children Ages 0-5 34.9 12.1 53.0
  Children Ages 6-10 33.7 16.9 49.4
  Children Ages 11-15 31.4 18.1 50.6
  Women Ages 16-64 70.3 7.3 22.4
  Men Ages 16-64 65.0 6.3 28.7
  Adults Age 65 and over 65.5 6.2 28.3
Note: Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes part-time workers and those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month.
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 2b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants: 1993-2000
  No one in LF At least one in LF,
No one FT
At least one
FT worker
1993 57.0 24.2 18.8
1994 54.8 24.8 20.4
1995 50.6 24.3 25.1
1996 50.1 25.6 24.3
1997 47.6 28.0 24.4
1998 44.3 25.8 29.9
1999 40.8 24.1 35.1
2000 41.2 24.1 34.7
Note: Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month.
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

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Indicator 3. Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance

Figure IND 3a.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2001

Figure IND 3a. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2001

Table IND 3a.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age 1970-2001
Fiscal Year Total Recipients
(excludes territories)
Adult Recipients
excludes territories)
Child Recipients
(excludes territories)
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
1970 7,188 3.5 1,863 1.4 5,325 7.6
1971 9,281 4.5 2,516 1.8 6,765 9.7
1972 10,345 4.9 2,848 2.0 7,497 10.8
1973 10,760 5.1 2,984 2.1 7,776 11.3
1974 10,591 5.0 2,935 2.0 7,656 11.3
1975 10,854 5.0 3,078 2.1 7,776 11.6
1976 11,171 5.1 3,271 2.2 7,900 11.9
1977 10,933 5.0 3,230 2.1 7,703 11.8
1978 10,485 4.7 3,128 2.0 7,357 11.4
1979 10,146 4.5 3,071 1.9 7,075 11.0
1980 10,422 4.6 3,226 2.0 7,196 11.3
1981 10,979 4.8 3,491 2.1 7,488 11.8
1982 10,233 4.4 3,395 2.0 6,838 10.9
1983 10,467 4.5 3,548 2.1 6,919 11.1
1984 10,677 4.5 3,652 2.1 7,025 11.2
1985 10,630 4.5 3,589 2.0 7,041 11.2
1986 10,810 4.5 3,637 2.1 7,173 11.4
1987 10,878 4.5 3,624 2.0 7,254 11.5
1988 10,734 4.4 3,536 2.0 7,198 11.4
1989 10,741 4.4 3,503 1.9 7,238 11.4
1990 11,263 4.5 3,643 2.0 7,620 11.9
1991 12,391 4.9 4,016 2.1 8,375 12.8
1992 13,423 5.2 4,336 2.3 9,087 13.7
1993 13,943 5.4 4,519 2.3 9,424 13.9
1994 14,033 5.3 4,554 2.3 9,479 13.8
1995 13,479 5.1 4,322 2.2 9,157 13.2
1996 12,477 4.6 3,921 2.0 8,556 12.2
1997 10,779 4.0 3,106 1.5 7,673 10.8
1998 8,659 3.1 2,581 1.3 6,078 8.5
1999 7,068 2.5 1,973 1.0 5,096 7.1
2000 5,856 2.1 1,544 0.7 4,312 6.0
2001 5,383 1.9 1,385 0.7 3,998 5.5
Notes: See Appendix A, Tables TANF 2, TANF 12, and TANF 14, for more detailed data on recipiency rates, including recipiency rates by calendar year. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. Child recipients include a small number of dependents ages 18 and older who are students. The average numbers of adult and child recipients in 1998 and 1999 are estimated using data from the National Emergency TANF Data Files and thereafter using the National TANF Data Files.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3b.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2001

Figure IND 3b. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2001

Table IND 3b.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age 1975-2001
Fiscal Year Total Recipients Adult Recipients
Age 60 and over
Adult Recipients
Ages 18-59
Child Recipients
Ages 0-18
Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent
1975 16,320 7.6 - - - - - -
1976 17,033 7.8 - - - - 9,126 13.8
1977 15,604 7.1 - - - - - -
1978 14,405 6.5 - - - - - -
1979 15,942 7.1 - - - - - -
1980 19,253 8.5 1,741 4.9 7,186 5.6 9,876 15.5
1981 20,654 9.0 1,845 5.0 7,811 6.0 9,803 15.5
1982 21,754 9.4 1,641 4.4 7,838 6.0 9,591 15.3
1983 21,668 9.3 1,654 4.4 8,960 6.7 10,910 17.4
1984 20,796 8.8 1,758 4.5 8,521 6.3 10,492 16.8
1985 19,847 8.3 1,783 4.5 8,258 6.1 9,906 15.8
1986 19,381 8.1 1,631 4.1 7,895 5.7 9,844 15.7
1987 19,072 7.9 1,589 3.9 7,684 5.5 9,771 15.5
1988 18,613 7.6 1,500 3.7 7,506 5.3 9,351 14.8
1989 18,778 7.6 1,582 3.8 7,560 5.3 9,429 14.9
1990 20,020 8.0 1,511 3.6 8,084 5.6 10,127 15.8
1991 22,599 8.9 1,593 3.8 9,190 6.3 11,952 18.3
1992 25,369 9.9 1,687 3.9 10,550 7.2 13,349 20.1
1993 26,952 10.4 1,876 4.3 11,214 7.5 14,196 21.0
1994 27,433 10.4 1,952 4.5 11,539 7.6 14,391 21.0
1995 26,579 10.0 1,896 4.3 10,962 7.2 13,860 20.0
1996 25,494 9.5 1,892 4.3 10,766 6.9 13,189 18.8
1997 22,820 8.4 1,834 4.1 9,385 6.0 11,847 16.7
1998 19,746 7.2 1,637 3.6 7,772 4.9 10,524 14.7
1999 18,146 6.5 1,699 3.7 7,090 4.4 9,332 13.0
2000 17,120 6.1 1,702 3.7 6,623 4.0 8,743 12.1
2001 17,297 6.1 1,660 3.6 6,789 4.1 8,819 12.2
Note: See Appendix A, Tables FSP 1 and FSP 6 for more detailed data on recipiency rates. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. From 1975 to 1983 the number of participants includes the Family Food Assistance Program (FFAP) that was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. From 1975 to 1983 the number of FFAP participants averaged only 88 thousand.
Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2001, and earlier reports, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (available online at http://www.census.gov)

Figure IND 3c.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2001

Figure IND 3c. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2001

Table IND 3c.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2001
Date Total Recipients Adult Recipients
Age 65 & over
Adult Recipients
Ages 18-64
Child Recipients
Ages 0-18
Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent
Dec 1975 4,314 2.0 2,508 10.9 1,699 1.3 107 0.2
Dec 1976 4,236 1.9 2,397 10.2 1,714 1.3 125 0.2
Dec 1977 4,238 1.9 2,353 9.7 1,738 1.3 147 0.2
Dec 1978 4,217 1.9 2,304 9.3 1,747 1.3 166 0.3
Dec 1979 4,150 1.8 2,246 8.8 1,727 1.3 177 0.3
Dec 1980 4,142 1.8 2,221 8.6 1,731 1.2 190 0.3
Dec 1981 4,019 1.7 2,121 8.0 1,703 1.2 195 0.3
Dec 1982 3,858 1.7 2,011 7.4 1,655 1.2 192 0.3
Dec 1983 3,901 1.7 2,003 7.3 1,700 1.2 198 0.3
Dec 1984 4,029 1.7 2,037 7.2 1,780 1.2 212 0.3
Dec 1985 4,138 1.7 2,031 7.1 1,879 1.3 227 0.4
Dec 1986 4,269 1.8 2,018 6.9 2,010 1.3 241 0.4
Dec 1987 4,385 1.8 2,015 6.7 2,119 1.4 251 0.4
Dec 1988 4,464 1.8 2,006 6.6 2,203 1.5 255 0.4
Dec 1989 4,593 1.9 2,026 6.5 2,302 1.5 265 0.4
Dec 1990 4,817 1.9 2,059 6.5 2,450 1.6 309 0.5
Dec 1991 5,118 2.0 2,080 6.5 2,642 1.7 397 0.6
Dec 1992 5,566 2.2 2,100 6.5 2,910 1.9 556 0.8
Dec 1993 5,984 2.3 2,113 6.4 3,148 2.0 723 1.1
Dec 1994 6,296 2.4 2,119 6.3 3,335 2.1 841 1.2
Dec 1995 6,514 2.5 2,115 6.3 3,482 2.2 917 1.3
Dec 1996 6,630 2.5 2,110 6.2 3,568 2.2 955 1.4
Dec 1997 6,495 2.4 2,054 6.0 3,562 2.2 880 1.3
Dec 1998 6,566 2.4 2,033 5.9 3,646 2.2 887 1.3
Dec 1999 6,557 2.4 2,019 5.8 3,691 2.2 847 1.2
Dec 2000 6,602 2.3 2,011 5.7 3,744 2.1 847 1.2
Dec 2001 6,688 2.3 1,995 5.6 3,811 2.1 882 1.2
Note: December population figures used as the denominators are obtained by averaging the Census Bureau's July 1 population estimates for the current and the following year (the December population estimates for the year 2000 are extrapolations of April 1, 2000 population figures). See Appendix A, Tables SSI 2, SSI 8, and SSI 9 for more detailed data on SSI recipiency rates. In this report the categories of children under 18 and adults 18-64 differ from those in previous editions where the category of children included a small number of dependents 18 and older who were students.
Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin Symbol"• Annual Statistical Supplement Symbol"• 2002 (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics), and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (available online at http://www.census.gov)

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Indicator 4. Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs

Figure IND 4.
Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs Selected Years

Figure IND 4. Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs Selected Years

Table IND 4a.
Number and Percentage of Eligible Families Participating in AFDC/TANF Selected Years
Calendar Year Eligible Families
(in millions)
Participating Families
(in millions)
Participation Rate
(percent)
1981 4.8 3.8 80.2
1983 4.7 3.7 77.7
1985 4.7 3.7 79.3
1987 4.9 3.8 76.7
1988 4.8 3.7 78.4
1989 4.5 3.8 83.6
1990 4.9 4.1 82.2
1992 5.6 4.8 85.7
1993 6.1 5.0 81.7
1994 6.1 5.0 82.6
1994 (revised) 6.1 5.0 82.1
1995 5.7 4.8 84.3
1996 5.6 4.4 78.9
1997 5.5 3.7 67.5
1997 (adjusted) 5.4 3.7 69.2
1998 5.5 3.1 55.8
1999 4.9 2.6 52.3
2000 4.3 2.2 51.8
Notes: Participation rates are estimated by an Urban Institute model (TRIM3) which uses CPS data to simulate AFDC/TANF eligibility and participation for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, since 1994, the model has been revised to more accurately estimate SSI participation among children, and in 1997 and 1998 the model was adjusted to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. The numbers of eligible and participating families shown above include the territories and pregnant women without children, even though these two small groups are excluded from the TRIM model. The numbers shown here implicitly assume that participation rates for the territories and for pregnant women with no other children are the same as for all other eligibles.
Source: DHHS, Administration for Children and Families caseload tabulations, and unpublished data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 4b.
Number and Percentage of Eligible Households Participating in the Food Stamp Program: Selected Years
Date Eligible
Households
(in millions)
Participating
Households
(in millions)
Participation Rate
(percent)
September 76 16.3 5.3 32.6
February 78 14.0 5.3 37.8
August 80 14.0 7.4 52.5
August 82 14.5 7.5 51.5
August 84 14.2 7.3 51.6
August 86 15.3 7.1 46.5
August 88 14.9 7.0 47.1
August 90 14.5 8.0 54.9
August 91 15.6 9.2 59.1
August 92 16.7 10.2 61.6
August 93 17.0 10.9 64.0
August 94 (o) 17.0 11.0 64.6
September 94 (r) 15.3 10.7 69.6
September 95 15.0 10.4 69.2
September 96 15.3 9.9 65.1
September 97 14.7 8.4 57.5
September 98 14.0 7.6 54.2
September 99 13.7 7.3 53.0
September 00 13.5 7.2 53.2
Note: Eligible households estimated from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model that uses CPS data to simulate the Food Stamp Program. Caseload data are from USDA, FNS program operations caseload data. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, the model was revised in 1994 to produce more accurate (and lower) estimates of eligible households. The original(o) 1994 estimate and estimates for previous years show higher estimates of eligibles and lower participation rates relative to the revised(r) estimate for 1994 and estimates for subsequent years.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: 1976 to 2000.

Table IND 4c.
Percentage of Eligible Adult Units Participating in the SSI Program, by Type:1993-2000
  All Adult Units One-Person Units Married-Couple
Units
Aged Disabled
1993 62.0 57.0 71.0 37.0
1994 65.0 58.4 73.0 43.9
1995 69.1 64.9 74.0 52.2
1996 66.6 60.4 73.5 46.7
1997 71.1 62.7 79.4 49.1
1998 70.7 63.6 77.9 48.1
1999 74.3 65.8 83.3 47.8
2000 75.8 70.9 82.3 49.9
Notes: Participation rates estimated using the TRIM3 microsimulation model, which uses CPS data to simulate SSI eligibility for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. In particular, the model was revised in 1997 to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. Thus the increased participation rate in 1997 is partly due to a revision in estimating methodology. Also note that the figure for married-couple units is based on very small sample sizes-for example, married-couple units were only about 7.5 percent of the eligible adults units and 5.1 percent of the units receiving SSI in an average month in 1998.
Source: Unpublished data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

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Indicator 5. Multiple Program Receipt

Figure IND 5.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance
from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, & SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance: 2000

Figure IND 5.  Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance  from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, & SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance: 2000

Table IND 5a.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs
(TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2000
  Any Receipt One Program Only FS SSI Two Programs
TANF TANF & FS FS & SSI
All Persons 8.1 0.2 3.8 1.4 1.7 1.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 5.3 0.1 2.4 1.0 1.0 0.7
Non-Hispanic Black 19.1 0.4 9.9 2.3 4.1 2.4
Hispanic 12.3 0.7 5.2 1.8 3.5 1.0
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 15.1 0.6 7.7 0.7 5.4 0.7
Children Ages 6-10 13.8 0.7 7.4 0.4 4.8 0.4
Children Ages 11-15 11.7 0.5 6.5 0.8 3.4 0.4
Women Ages 16-64 7.3 0.2 3.4 1.1 1.6 1.0
Men Ages 16-64 4.7 0.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.6
Adults Age 65 and over 8.2 0.0 1.9 3.9 0.0 2.3
See below for notes and source.

Table IND 5b.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, SSI): 1993-2000
  Any Receipt One Program Only Two Programs
AFDC/TANF FS SSI AFDC/TANF & FS FS & SSI
1993 12.6 0.6 5.2 1.1 4.8 1.0
1994 12.8 0.5 5.3 1.2 4.6 1.1
1995 12.3 0.4 5.0 1.2 4.5 1.1
1996 12.0 0.3 5.3 1.2 4.0 1.1
1997 10.2 0.4 4.3 1.3 3.1 1.0
1998 9.0 0.4 3.9 1.4 2.4 0.9
1999 8.5 0.4 3.8 1.3 2.0 1.0
2000 8.1 0.2 3.8 1.4 1.7 1.0
Note: Categories are mutually exclusive. SSI receipt based on individual receipt; AFDC/TANF and food stamp receipt based on full recipient unit. In practice, individuals do not tend to receive both AFDC/TANF and SSI; hence, no individual receives benefits from all three programs. The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from any one program in an average month (shown here) is lower than the percentage residing in families receiving assistance over the course of a year (shown in Table SUM 1 in Chapter I and Table IND 1a in Chapter II).
Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

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Indicator 6. Dependence Transitions

Figure IND 6.
Dependency Status in 1999 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income
from Means-Tested Assistance in 1998, by Race/Ethnicity

Figure IND 6. Dependency Status in 1999 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1998, by Race/Ethnicity  

Table IND 6a.
Dependency Status in 1999 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income
from Means-Tested Assistance in 1998, by Race/Ethnicity and Age
Individuals Receiving more than 50% of Income from Assistance in 1998 Total (000's) Percentage of Persons Receiving
No Aid in 1999 Up to 50% in 1999 Over 50% in 1999
All Persons 8,163 2.9 27.1 70.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 2,657 4.3 25.8 70.0
Non-Hispanic Black 2,925 2.0 27.8 70.1
Hispanic 1,895 2.0 26.3 71.7
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 1,271 3.6 29.7 66.6
Children Ages 6-10 1,056 2.1 27.4 70.6
Children Ages 11-15 998 2.9 29.0 68.1
Women Ages 16-64 2,847 3.7 25.5 70.8
Men Ages 16-64 1,337 2.7 31.6 65.7
Adults Age 65 and over 654 0.0 16.4 83.6
Note: Means-tested assistance is defined as AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC/TANF income. Individuals are defined as dependent if they reside in families with more than 50 percent of total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Because full calendar year data for 1997-1998 were not available for all SIPP respondents, some transitions were based on twelve-month periods that did not correspond exactly to calendar years.
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

Table IND 6b.
Dependency Status for All Persons Who Received More than 50 percent of Income
from Means-Tested Assistance in Previous Year
  Total (000's) Percentage of Persons Receiving
No Aid in Second Year Up to 50% in Second Year Over 50% in Second Year
Transitions from:  
1993 to 1994 14,810 1.6 18.6 79.8
1994 to 1995 13,986 2.7 18.8 78.5
1997 to 1998 9,672 3.1 28.8 68.1
1998 to 1999 8,163 2.9 27.1 70.0
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels

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Indicator 7. Dependence Spell Duration

Figure IND 7.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants
for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 7. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell

Table IND 7a.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families
with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs
During the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age
  Spells <=4 months Spells 5-12 months Spells 13-20 months Spells >20 months
All Persons 40.5 27.5 13.3 18.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 38.4 35.8 N/A N/A
Non-Hispanic Black 44.1 22.4 11.5 21.9
Hispanic 39.6 23.2 N/A N/A
Age Categories
Ages 0-15 Years 38.9 25.0 12.9 23.2
Ages 16-64 Years 42.2 31.4 N/A N/A
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those spells starting during the 1996 SIPP panel for individuals in families with no labor force participants. For certain racial/ethnic and age categories, data are not available (N/A) due to insufficient sample size.
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

Table Ind 7b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels
  Spells <=4 months Spells 5-12 months Spells 13-20 months Spells >20 months
1993 Panel All Persons 27.2 16.2 6.9 49.7
1996 Panel All Persons 40.5 27.5 13.3 18.7
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels.

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Indicator 8. Program Spell Duration

Figure IND 8. Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells
for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 8. Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Table IND 8a.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs
During the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age
    Spells <=4 months Spells 5-12 months Spells 13-20 months Spells >20 months
AFDC/TANF All Recipients 46.6 29.2 11.5 12.7
  Racial/Ethnic Categories
  Non-Hispanic White 47.4 33.0 10.7 8.9
  Non-Hispanic Black 45.2 28.3 13.6 12.9
  Hispanic 46.3 25.4 10.5 17.9
  Age Categories
  Ages 0-5 Years 41.8 33.2 10.8 14.2
  Ages 6 to 10 Years 49.4 24.6 9.0 17.0
  Ages 11 to 15 Years 42.5 25.6 N/A N/A
  Ages 16 to 64 Years 48.6 30.7 12.0 8.7
  65 Years and Older N/A N/A N/A N/A
FOOD STAMPS All Recipients 43.1 27.7 9.3 19.8
  Racial/Ethnic Categories
  Non-Hispanic White 46.5 27.5 9.4 16.7
  Non-Hispanic Black 38.6 28.5 9.1 23.9
  Hispanic 41.7 28.5 8.1 21.8
  Age Categories
  Ages 0 to 5 years 36.5 31.4 8.6 23.5
  Ages 6 to 10 years 40.6 27.3 9.1 22.9
  Ages 11-15 40.4 30.3 10.0 19.3
  Ages 16-64 46.2 26.7 9.6 17.6
  65 Years and Older 31.7 26.8 6.9 34.7
SSI All Recipients 34.1 19.2 9.1 37.6
  Racial/Ethnic Categories
  Non-Hispanic White 36.8 18.7 7.8 36.7
  Non-Hispanic Black 34.8 19.7 9.5 36.0
  Hispanic 27.1 22.4 9.8 40.7
  Age Categories
  Ages 0-10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
  Ages 11-15 30.9 N/A N/A N/A
  Ages 16-64 37.1 20.1 8.6 34.2
  65 Years and Older 22.1 16.7 11.9 49.3
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC/TANF spells are defined as those starting during the 1996 SIPP Panel. For certain age and racial/ethnic categories, data are not available (N/A) because of insufficient sample size.
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 Panel.

Table IND 8b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals
Entering Programs During the 1992, 1993, and 1996 SIPP Panels
  Spells <=4 months Spells 5-12 months Spells 13-20 months Spells >20 months
1992 Panel
AFDC 30.4 24.7 10.5 34.4
Food Stamps 33.4 24.9 10.2 31.5
SSI 25.7 8.9 4.8 60.6
1993 Panel
AFDC 30.7 25.4 12.5 31.4
Food Stamps 33.1 26.8 10.1 30.0
SSI 24.0 7.9 4.7 63.4
1996 Panel
AFDC/TANF 46.6 29.2 11.5 12.7
Food Stamps 43.1 27.7 9.3 19.8
SSI 34.1 19.2 9.1 37.6
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP; 1992, 1993, and 1996 Panels.

The remaining three indicators in Chapter II present data over time spans as long as a decade and so are updated less frequently than the first eight indicators. Indicators 9, 10, and 11 are unchanged from last year's report and are included here for the convenience of those who do not have ready access to past reports.

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Indicator 9. Long-Term Dependency

Figure IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income
from AFDC and Food Stamps Between 1987 and 1996, by Years of Dependency

Figure IND 9. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Between 1987 and 1996, by Years of Dependency

Table IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods, by Years of Dependency, Race, and Age
Between 1967 and 1976: All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years Dependent: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 47.9 33.0 56.2 37.1 25.0 44.3
1-2 Years 23.2 25.6 21.9 26.6 23.6 28.4
3-5 Years 17.5 22.3 14.8 22.2 27.0 19.3
6-8 Years 8.0 12.3 5.7 9.4 15.5 5.8
9-10 Years 3.3 6.8 1.4 4.7 8.9 2.2
Between 1977 and 1986: All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1977
Years Dependent: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 49.5 38.8 56.2 32.0 18.9 40
1-2 Years 23.7 24.0 23.5 26.6 25.1 27.6
3-5 Years 12.4 15.4 10.5 14.1 19.4 10.9
6-8 Years 9.0 12.0 7.1 15.0 15.0 15.0
9-10 Years 5.5 9.9 2.8 12.2 21.7 6.5
Between 1987 and 1996: All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1987
Years Dependent: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 46.5 35.5 54.5 28.2 18.8 37.9
1-2 Years 23.6 22.7 24.2 22.4 21.1 23.8
3-5 Years 16.2 17.9 14.9 23.0 21.8 24.2
6-8 Years 8.0 14.1 3.5 15.3 23.0 7.3
9-10 Years 5.8 9.8 2.9 11.0 15.3 6.8
Note: The base for the percentages consists of individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in any year in the ten-year period. Footnotes in previous reports erroneously defined the base for these percentages as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in the first year of the ten-year period. The current table is based on the same methodology used to compute estimates for earlier reports. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This measures years of dependency over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of dependency that may have occurred before or after the ten-year period.
Source: Unpublished data from the PSID 1968-93 final release files and 1994-1997 unreleased preliminary data as of January, 2002.

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Indicator 10. Long-Term Receipt

Figure IND 10.
Percentage of AFDC Recipients, by Years of Receipt Between 1987 and 1996

Figure IND 10. Percentage of AFDC Recipients, by Years of Receipt Between 1987 and 1996.

Table IND 10:
Percentage of AFDC Recipients Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods by Years of Receipt, Race, and Age
Between 1967 and 1976: All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years received AFDC: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
1-2 Years 46.8 32.2 54.9 39.6 24.6 48.6
3-5 Years 27.1 32.4 24.1 30.7 38.5 26.0
6-8 Years 17.9 22.3 15.4 18.3 19.9 17.3
9-10 Years 8.2 13.2 5.5 11.4 17.0 8.0
Between 1977 and 1986: All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1977
Years received AFDC: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
1-2 Years 46.1 32.1 54.9 35.5 17.0 46.7
3-5 Years 26.0 29.3 24.0 23.1 31.5 18.0