2002 Indicators of Welfare Dependence

Chapter III:
Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt

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Contents

Economic Security Risk Factors

• ECON 1. Poverty Rates
• ECON 2. Deep Poverty Rates
• ECON 3. Experimental Poverty Measures
• ECON 4. Poverty Rates with Various Means-Tested Benefits Included
• ECON 5. Poverty Spells
• ECON 6. Long-Term Poverty
• ECON 7. Child Support
• ECON 8. Food Insecurity
• ECON 9. Lack of Health Insurance

Employment and Work-Related Risk Factors

• WORK 1. Labor Force Attachment
• WORK 2. Employment Among the Low-Skilled
• WORK 3. Earnings of Low-Skilled Workers
• WORK 4. Educational Attainment
• WORK 5. High School Dropout Rates
• WORK 6. Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse
• WORK 7. Adult/Child Disability
• WORK 8. Children’s Health Conditions

Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors

• BIRTH 1. Births to Unmarried Women
• BIRTH 2. Births to Unmarried Teens
• BIRTH 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates Within Age Groups
• BIRTH 4. Never-Married Family Status

The Welfare Indicators Act challenges the Department of Health and Human Services to identify and set forth not only indicators of welfare dependence and welfare duration, but also predictors and causes of welfare receipt. Prior to the Act, welfare research had not established clear and definitive causes of welfare dependence. However, research has identified a number of risk factors associated with welfare utilization. For purposes of this report, the terms “predictors” and “risk factors” are used somewhat interchangeably.

Where the Advisory Board established under the Welfare Indicators Act recommended narrowing the focus of dependence indicators, it recommended an expansive view toward predictors and risk factors. The range of possible predictors is extremely wide, and until they are measured and analyzed over time as the PRWORA changes continue to be implemented, their value will not be fully known. Some of the “predictors” included in this chapter may turn out to be simply correlates of welfare receipt, some may have a causal relationship, some may be consequences, and some may have predictive value.

For purposes of this report, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter are grouped into three categories: economic security risk factors, employment-related risk factors, and risk factors associated with non-marital childbearing.

Economic Security Risk Factors (ECON). The first group includes nine measures associated with economic security. This group encompasses six measures of poverty, as well as measures of child support receipt, food insecurity, and lack of health insurance. The tables and figures illustrating measures of economic security are labeled with the prefix ECON throughout this chapter.

Poverty measures are important predictors of dependence, because families with fewer economic resources are more likely to be dependent on means-tested assistance. In addition, poverty and other measures of deprivation, such as food insecurity, are important to assess in conjunction with the measures of dependence outlined in Chapter II.

Reductions in caseloads and dependence can reduce poverty, to the extent that such reductions are associated with greater work activity and higher economic resources for former welfare families. However, reductions in welfare caseloads can increase poverty and other deprivation measures, to the extent that former welfare families are left with fewer economic resources.

Several aspects of poverty are examined in this chapter. Those that can be updated annually using the Current Population Survey include: overall poverty rates (ECON 1); the percentage of individuals in deep poverty (ECON 2), and poverty rates using alternative definitions of income (ECON 3 and 4). The chapter also includes data on the length of poverty episodes or spells (ECON 5); and the cumulative time spent in poverty over a decade (ECON 6).

This chapter also includes data on child support collections (ECON 7), which can play an important role in reducing dependence on government assistance and thus serve as a predictor of dependence. Household food insecurity (ECON 8) is an important measure of deprivation that, although correlated with general income poverty, provides an alternative measure of tracking the incidence of material hardship and need, and how it may change over time. Finally, health insurance (ECON 9) is both tied to the income level of the family, and may be a precursor to future health problems among both adults and children.

Employment and Work-Related Risk Factors (WORK). The second grouping, labeled with the WORK prefix, includes nine factors related to employment and barriers to employment. These measures include data on overall labor force attachment and the employment and earnings for low-skilled workers, as well as data on barriers to work. The latter category includes incidence of adult disabilities and children with chronic health conditions, adult substance abuse, levels of educational attainment and school drop-out rates, and child care costs.

Employment and earnings provide many families with an escape from dependence. It is important, therefore, to look both at overall labor force attachment (WORK 1), and at employment and earnings levels for those with low education levels (WORK 2 and WORK 3). The economic condition of the low-skill labor market is a key predictor of the ability of young adult men and women to support families without receiving means-tested assistance.

The next two measures in this group (WORK 4 and WORK 5) focus on educational attainment. Individuals with less than a high school education have the lowest amount of human capital and are at the greatest risk of becoming poor, despite their work effort.

Measures of barriers to employment provide indicators of potential work limitations, which may be predictors of greater dependence. Substance abuse (WORK 6), disabling conditions (WORK 7), and chronic child health conditions (WORK 8) all have the potential of limiting the ability of the adults in the household to work. In addition, debilitating health conditions and high medical expenditures can place a strain on a family’s economic resources.

Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors (BIRTH). The final group of risk factors addresses out-of-wedlock childbearing. The tables and figures in this subsection are labeled with the BIRTH prefix. This category includes long-term time trends in births to unmarried women (BIRTH 1), births to unmarried teens (BIRTH 2 and BIRTH 3), and children living in families with never-married parents (BIRTH 4). Children living in families with never-married mothers are at high risk of dependence, and it is therefore important to track changes in the size of this vulnerable population.

As noted above, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter do not represent an exhaustive list of measures. They are merely a sampling of available data that address in some way the question of how a family is faring on the scale of deprivation and well-being. Such questions are a necessary part of the dependence discussion as researchers assess the effects of the major changes that have occurred in the laws governing public assistance programs.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 1.
POVERTY RATES

Figure ECON 1.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age: 1959-2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

• The percentage of persons living in poverty fell to 11 percent in 2000, the lowest level since 1973.
• While the poverty rate for children has declined along with the overall rate in the past several years, children, particularly young children, continue to have higher poverty rates than the overall population. For example, in 2000, the poverty rate for related children ages 0 to 5 was about 17 percent, compared to about 11 percent for the overall population.
• The poverty rate for blacks declined by 6 percentage points between 1996 and 2000, from 28 percent to 22 percent, as shown in Table ECON 1. The gap between black and white poverty rates was at an historic low of 13 percentage points in 2000; the gap has narrowed by a third since the early 1990s, when it exceeded 21 percentage points. The poverty rate among Hispanics reached 21 percent in 2000, the lowest level recorded.
• The poverty rate for the elderly (persons ages 65 and over) reached historic lows of less than 10 percent in 1999 and just over 10 percent in 2000. This was a lower poverty rate than the rate for children under 18 (16 percent) and slightly above adults ages 18-64 (9.4 percent).

Table ECON 1.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: Selected Years

Calendar Year	Related Children		All Persons
	Ages 0-5	Ages 6-17	Total	Under 18	18 to 64	65 & over	White	Black	Hispanic Origin
1959	N/A	N/A	22.4	27.3	17.0	35.2	18.1	55.1	N/A
1963	N/A	N/A	19.5	23.1	N/A	N/A	15.3	N/A	N/A
1966	N/A	N/A	14.7	17.6	10.5	28.5	11.3	41.8	N/A
1969	15.3	13.1	12.1	14.0	8.7	25.3	9.5	32.2	N/A
1973	15.7	13.6	11.1	14.4	8.3	16.3	8.4	31.4	21.9
1976	17.7	15.1	11.8	16.0	9.0	15.0	9.1	31.1	24.7
1979	17.9	15.1	11.7	16.4	8.9	15.2	9.0	31.0	21.8
1980	20.3	16.8	13.0	18.3	10.1	15.7	10.2	32.5	25.7
1981	22.0	18.4	14.0	20.0	11.1	15.3	11.1	34.2	26.5
1982	23.3	20.4	15.0	21.9	12.0	14.6	12.0	35.6	29.9
1983	24.6	20.4	15.2	22.3	12.4	13.8	12.1	35.7	28.0
1984	23.4	19.7	14.4	21.5	11.7	12.4	11.5	33.8	28.4
1985	22.6	18.8	14.0	20.7	11.3	12.6	11.4	31.3	29.0
1986	21.6	18.8	13.6	20.5	10.8	12.4	11.0	31.1	27.3
1987	22.3	18.9	13.4	20.3	10.6	12.5	10.4	32.4	28.0
1988	21.8	17.5	13.0	19.5	10.5	12.0	10.1	31.3	26.7
1989	21.9	17.4	12.8	19.6	10.2	11.4	10.0	30.7	26.2
1990	23.0	18.2	13.5	20.6	10.7	12.2	10.7	31.9	28.1
1991	24.0	19.5	14.2	21.8	11.4	12.4	11.3	32.7	28.7
1992	25.7	19.4	14.8	22.3	11.9	12.9	11.9	33.4	29.6
1993	25.6	20.0	15.1	22.7	12.4	12.2	12.2	33.1	30.6
1994	24.5	19.5	14.5	21.8	11.9	11.7	11.7	30.6	30.7
1995	23.7	18.3	13.8	20.8	11.4	10.5	11.2	29.3	30.3
1996	22.7	18.3	13.7	20.5	11.4	10.8	11.2	28.4	29.4
1997	21.6	18.0	13.3	19.9	10.9	10.5	11.0	26.5	27.1
1998	20.6	17.1	12.7	18.9	10.5	10.5	10.5	26.1	25.6
1999	18.0	15.5	11.8	16.9	10.0	9.7	9.8	23.6	22.8
2000	16.9	15.1	11.3	16.2	9.4	10.2	9.4	22.1	21.2
Notes: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race All persons under 18 include related children (own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption), unrelated individuals under 18 (persons who are not living with any relatives), and householders or spouses under age 18. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 2.
DEEP POVERTY RATES

Figure ECON 2.
Percentage of Total Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty: 1975-2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

• Between 1996 and 2000, the percentage of the population in “deep poverty” (with incomes below 50 percent of the federal poverty level), decreased a full percentage point (from 5.4 percent in 1996 to 4.4 percent in 2000).
• In general, the percentage of the population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty threshold has followed a pattern that reflects the trend in the overall poverty rate, as shown in Figure ECON 2. The percentage of people below 50 percent of poverty rose in the late 1970s and early 1980s, then, after falling slightly, rose to a second peak in 1993. The overall poverty rate followed a somewhat similar pattern, with more pronounced peaks and valleys.
• Over the past two decades, there has been an overall increase in the proportion of the poverty population in deep poverty and a decrease in the proportion between 50 and 100 percent of the poverty threshold. In 2000, 39 percent of poor persons had incomes that fell below 50 percent of the poverty level (4.4 percent out of 11.3 percent), whereas in 1976, only 28 percent of the poverty population was in deep poverty.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 3.
EXPERIMENTAL POVERTY MEASURES

Figure ECON 3.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures, by Age: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2001.

• Four experimental measures of poverty developed by the Census Bureau in response to the recommendation of a 1995 panel of the National Academy of Sciences yield poverty rates that are similar to the official poverty measure overall, but differ by age and other characteristics.
• Experimental measures generally show lower poverty rates among children than the official measure, partly because they take into account non-cash benefits that many children receive. Conversely, experimental measures show higher rates of poverty among the elderly than the official measure, in part due to the inclusion of certain out-of-pocket health costs in these measures.
• The percentage of all persons in poverty dropped steadily between 1996 and 2000 under each of the four experimental poverty measures, as well as under the official rate, as shown in Table ECON 3b.

Table ECON 3a.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2000

	Official Poverty Measure	National Academy of Sciences	Different Child Care Method	Different Equiv-alency Scale	No Geographic Adjustment
All Persons	11.3	11.5	11.7	11.4	11.3
Racial/Ethnic Categories
White	9.4	10.0	10.2	10.0	9.9
Black	22.1	19.5	20.2	19.6	19.4
Hispanic Origin	21.2	21.8	22.3	21.4	19.9
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-17	16.2	14.3	15.1	14.0	14.2
Adults Ages 18-64	9.4	9.7	9.8	9.8	9.5
Adults Age 65 and over	10.2	14.5	14.1	14.6	14.6
See notes and source below.

Table ECON 3b.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures: 1990-2000

Year	Official Poverty Measure	National Academy of Sciences	Different Child Care Method	Different Equiv- alency Scale	No Geographic Adjustment
1990	13.5	13.7	13.6	13.6	13.8
1991	14.2	14.5	14.3	14.4	14.6
1992	14.8	15.1	15.0	15.1	15.2
1993	15.1	15.8	15.7	15.8	15.8
1994	14.5	14.6	14.5	14.6	14.6
1995	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.9
1996	13.7	13.6	13.7	13.6	13.5
1997	13.3	13.3	13.3	13.3	13.3
1998	12.7	12.5	12.5	12.5	12.3
1999	11.8	11.7	11.8	11.8	11.7
2000	11.3	11.5	11.7	11.4	11.3
Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. The National Academy of Sciences experimental poverty measure most closely implements changes recommended by a 1995 NAS panel, including: counting non-cash income as benefits; subtracting from income certain work-related, health, and child care expenses; and adjusting poverty thresholds for family size and geographic differences in housing costs. The other three measures are similar, except for the treatment of child care expenses (Different Child Care Method), the family size adjustment (Difference Equivalency Scale), and the geographic adjustment (No Geographic Adjustment).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 1991 to 2001; U.S. Census Bureau, “Selected Experimental Poverty Measures: 1990 to 1999”, available at www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/povmeas/exppov/ suexxpov.html. Further explanations of each of the alternative poverty measures may be found in: U.S. Census Bureau “Experimental Poverty Measure: 1990 to 1997”, Current Population Reports, Series P60-205, June 1999.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 4.
POVERTY RATES WITH VARIOUS MEANS-TESTED BENEFITS INCLUDED

Figure ECON 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-2000

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of March CPS data. Additional calculations by DHHS.

• The official definition of poverty – which includes means-tested cash assistance (primarily TANF and SSI) in addition to pre-tax cash income and social insurance – was 11.3 percent in 2000, as shown in the bold line in Figure ECON 4. Without cash welfare, the 2000 poverty rate would be 12.0 percent, as shown by the top line in the figure above.
• Adding other, non-cash, public assistance benefits to this definition has the effect of lowering the percentage of people who have incomes below the official poverty rate. Adding in the value of food and housing benefits reduces the poverty rate to 10.1 percent in 2000.
• When income is defined as including benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and federal taxes, the percentage of the total population in poverty decreases to 9.5 percent in 2000. Taxes have had a net effect of reducing poverty rates since the significant increases in the size of the EITC in 1993 and 1995.
• The combined effect of means-tested cash assistance, food and housing benefits, EITC and taxes was to reduce the poverty rate in 2000 by 2.5 percentage points, as shown in Table ECON 4. Net reductions in poverty rates were somewhat lower during the recession of the early 1980s, and somewhat higher in the mid-1990s, following expansions in the EITC.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 5.
POVERTY SPELLS

Figure ECON 5. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

• Nearly half (47 percent) of all poverty spells that began during the 1993 SIPP panel ended within 4 months and three-fourths ended within one year. Only 16 percent of all such spells were longer than 20 months.
• Spells of poverty among adults age 65 and older tend to last longer than poverty spells among younger individuals. As shown in Table ECON 5, only 65 percent of poverty spells among adults age 65 and older ended within one year compared to 80 percent for women ages 16 to 64, 75 percent for men ages 16 to 64, and 73 percent for children ages 0 to 15.
• A larger percentage of poverty spells among non-Hispanic blacks were longer than 20 months (23 percent) than was the case for spells among non-Hispanic whites (14 percent) and among Hispanics (15 percent).
• In general, poverty spells between and 1993 and 1995 were shorter than spells of welfare receipt begun in the same time period, as can be seen by comparing Figure ECON 5 to Figure IND 8 in Chapter II. That is, there was more movement in and out of poverty than movement on and off welfare. For example, 75 percent of poverty spells lasted a year or less, whereas only 60 percent of food stamp spells and 56 percent of AFDC spells lasted a year or less.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 6.
LONG-TERM POVERTY

Figure ECON 6. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1987 Living in Poverty Between 1987 and 1996, by Years in Poverty and Race

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1987-1996.

• Among children who were ages 0 to 5 in 1987, two-thirds (66 percent) never lived in poverty for any year over the next ten years. Nearly one-quarter (23 percent) lived in poverty for one to five years and 10 percent were poor for six to ten years.
• During the 1987-1996 period, one-third (33 percent) of black children experienced longer-term poverty of six to ten years, a percentage much higher than that for non-black children during the same ten-year period (5 percent). Similar patterns existed in the earlier two ten-year time periods, as shown in Table ECON 6.
• For all three time periods, the percentages of all individuals who were poor for only one to two years were much larger than the percentages of all individuals who experienced longer-term poverty. For example, while 15 percent of all individuals were poor for only one to two years between 1987 and 1996, only 5 percent were poor for six to ten years during the same time period.
• Long-term poverty of six or more years decreased for blacks more than for non-blacks across the three ten-year time periods. As shown in Table ECON 6, the percentage of persons experiencing long-term poverty decreased from 27 percent in the earliest period to 22 percent in the most recent period among blacks, but remained essentially unchanged for non-blacks. The percentage of black children experiencing long-term poverty was steady across the periods, while the percentage for non-black children increased Long-term poverty of six or more.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 7.
CHILD SUPPORT

Figure ECON 7.
Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-2000

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1999 Data Report, 2000 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

• Collections paid through the Child Support Enforcement system (Title IV-D of the Social Security Act) totaled $17.9 billion in 2000, nearly $2 billion more than in 1999. During the 1990s, child support collections grew rapidly, at an average rate of almost $1.1 billion a year.
• Non-TANF collections as a percentage of overall collections by the IV-D program have rapidly increased in recent years. Non-TANF collections increased by nearly $1.6 billion between 1999 and 2000, while TANF collections increased by nearly $111 million. However, this 4.5 percent increase in TANF collections between 1999 and 2000 occurred despite the 15 percent drop in the number of TANF recipient families over the same time period.
• The amount of TANF collections paid to AFDC/TANF families has decreased since FY 1996, when the first $50 of each month’s child support collection were “passed through” to families that were receiving cash benefits. The $50 pass-through was repealed by the 1996 welfare reform law, although a number of states have opted to pass through some or all of collections to the custodial TANF family, despite the loss of revenues to the state.
• In 2000, nearly 79 percent of TANF collections (collections on behalf of TANF recipients and for past due support assigned to the state by former TANF recipients) was retained to reimburse the state and federal governments for the cost of welfare benefits, as shown in Table ECON 7.

Table ECON 7.
Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-2000
Total Collections (in millions)

Fiscal Year	Total Collections		AFDC/TANF Collections
	Current Dollars	Constant '00 Dollars	Total	Payments to AFDC/TANF Families	Federal & State Share of Collections	Non-AFDC/TANF Collections	Total IV-D Administrative Expenditures
1978	$1,047	$2,701	$472	$13	$459	$575	$312
1979	1,333	3,157	597	12	584	736	383
1980	1,478	3,139	603	10	593	874	466
1981	1,629	3,151	671	12	659	958	526
1982	1,771	3,198	786	15	771	985	612
1983	2,024	3,510	880	15	865	1,144	691
1984	2,378	3,951	1,000	17	983	1,378	723
1985	2,694	4,316	1,090	189	901	1,604	814
1986	3,249	5,070	1,225	275	955	2,019	941
1987	3,917	5,953	1,349	278	1,070	2,569	1,066
1988	4,605	6,735	1,486	289	1,188	3,128	1,171
1989	5,241	7,301	1,593	307	1,286	3,648	1,363
1990	6,010	7,976	1,750	334	1,416	4,260	1,606
1991	6,886	8,699	1,984	381	1,603	4,902	1,804
1992	7,964	9,765	2,259	435	1,824	5,705	1,995
1993	8,907	10,602	2,416	446	1,971	6,491	2,241
1994	9,850	11,422	2,550	457	2,093	7,300	2,556
1995	10,827	12,215	2,689	474	2,215	8,138	3,012
1996	12,020	13,194	2,855	480	2,375	9,165	3,049
1997	13,364	14,284	2,843	157	2,685	10,521	3,428
1998	14,348	15,090	2,650	152	2,498	11,698	3,585
1999	15,901	16,410	2,482	113	2,368	13,699	4,039
2000	17,854	17,854	2,593	165	2,048	15,261	4,526
Note: Not all states report current child support collections in all years. Constant dollar adjustments to the 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index. Data for fiscal years 1999 and 2000 may not be exactly comparable to that of previous years due to changes in data reporting forms. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Child Support Collections: 2001 TANF Report to Congress (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 8.
FOOD INSECURITY

Figure ECON 8. Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 2000

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States, 2000.

• A large majority (90 percent) of American households was food secure in 2000 – that is, showed little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake.
• Approximately 10 percent of households experienced food insecurity (not being able to afford enough food) at some level during the twelve months ending in September 2000. More than two-thirds of the food insecure households were without hunger, meaning that although food insecurity was evident in their concerns and in adjustments to household food management, little or no reduction in food intake was reported.
• The prevalence of food insecurity with hunger in 2000 was estimated to be 3 percent. One or more members of these households experienced reduced food intake and hunger as a result of financial constraints.
• Poor households have a higher rate of food insecurity (37 percent) than the 10 percent rate among the general population, as shown in Table ECON 8a. Only 5 percent of families with incomes at or above 185 percent of the poverty level showed evidence of food insecurity.
• Changes in survey administration make it difficult to examine time trends in food security. In general, there was a downward trend in food insecurity from 1995-1999, followed by a slight upward tick in 2000. Higher food insecurity in even years may reflect the difference between data collection in the spring (odd years) and fall (even years).

Table ECON 8b.
Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 1995-2000

	Food Secure	Food Insecure Total	Food Insecure Without Hunger	Food Insecure With Hunger
Old Series
1995	89.7	10.3	6.4	3.9
1996	89.6	10.4	6.3	4.1
1997	91.3	8.7	5.6	3.1
1998	89.8	10.2	6.6	3.6
1999	91.3	8.7	5.9	2.8
New Series
1998	88.2	11.8	8.1	3.7
1999	89.9	10.1	7.1	3.0
2000	89.5	10.5	7.3	3.1
Note: Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure without hunger report food-related concerns, adjustments to household food management, and reduced variety and desirability of diet but report little or no reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure with hunger report reduced food intake and hunger. Because of changes in survey administration, food insecurity statistics in Table ECON 8b are shown in two separate series. The “new series” (1998-2000) provides the best estimates of food security for 1998 and 1999; in the “old series” (1995-1999), data for 1998 and 1999 were adjusted to be comparable to 1995-1997.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States, 2000.

ECONOMIC SECURITY RISK FACTOR 9.
LACK OF HEALTH INSURANCE

Figure ECON 9.
Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income: 2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, March 2001.

• Poor persons were more than twice as likely as all persons to be without health insurance in 2000 (30 percent compared to 14 percent). While the ratio varied across categories, persons with family income at or below the poverty line were more likely to be without health insurance regardless of race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, or age.
• Hispanics were the ethnic group least likely to have health insurance in 2000, among both the general population and those with incomes below the poverty line. While white individuals in general were more likely to have insurance than black individuals, poor black individuals were more likely to have insurance than poor white individuals.
• Among all persons, the amount of education was inversely related to health insurance coverage, as shown in Table ECON 9. However, among poor persons, educational attainment made little difference as to whether individuals had health insurance.
• As shown in Table ECON 9, individuals ages 18 to 34 are the most likely to be without health insurance, among both the general population and the poor population. Nearly half of all 18 to 34 year-olds with incomes below the poverty line had no health insurance in 2000.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 1.
LABOR FORCE ATTACHMENT

Figure WORK 1.
Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Race/Ethnicity: 2000

Source: Unpublished tabulations of March CPS data.

• In 2000, 73 percent of the total population lived in families with at least one person working on a full-time, full-year basis, as shown in Table WORK 1a. Full-time full-year work was higher in 2000 than during the 1990s, as shown in Table WORK 1b.
• Overall, 13 percent of the population lived in families with no labor force participants and 14 percent lived in families with part-time and/or part-year labor force participants in 2000.
• Persons of Hispanic origin were less likely than non-Hispanic whites or non-Hispanic blacks to live in families with no one in the labor force in 1999 (9 percent compared to 14 and 15 percent, respectively).
• Working-age women were more likely than working-age men to live in families with no one in the labor force (8 percent compared to 6 percent). Men were more likely than women to live in families with at least one full-time, full-year worker (82 percent compared to 78 percent).

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 2.
EMPLOYMENT AMONG THE LOW-SKILLED

Figure WORK 2.
Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High School Education Who Were Employed: 1969-2001

Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

• Between 1996 and 2001, employment rates of black and Hispanic women with a high school education or less rose significantly, to 67 percent and 61 percent, respectively. Low-skilled white women experienced less of an increase in employment over this time period but still had the highest employment level in 2001 (69 percent) among the three racial/ethnic groups.
• Employment levels for white and Hispanic men with no more than a high school education have hovered close to 85 percent for close to two decades. In contrast, employment levels for low-skilled black men have varied over the same period. Between 1969 and 1984, employment rates for black men with no more than high school education fell by 20 percentage points. Since 1984, these rates have fluctuated, with the most recent five years showing a slight increase from 70 to 73 percent.
• As shown in Figure and Table WORK 2, employment levels for black men with a high school education or less were 6 percentage points higher than those of similarly educated black women in 2001. In contrast, there was a 16-percentage point difference in employment levels of white men and white women with a high school education or less, and a 26-percentage point difference between similarly educated Hispanic men and Hispanic women.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 3.
EARNINGS OF LOW-SKILLED WORKERS

Figure WORK 3.
Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No More than a High School Education, by Race (2000 Dollars): Selected Years

Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

• Mean weekly wages for full-time work by men with no more than a high school diploma have decreased in real terms for much of the past quarter century, with some recovery in the late 1990s. In 1970, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled men working full-time was $683 (in 2000 dollars); the comparable wage in 1995 was $617, a decrease of 10 percent.
• In recent years, this pattern has changed; weekly wages for low-skilled men have risen, even after taking inflation into account. The mean weekly wage for low-skilled full-time workers was $650 in 2000 – a rise above the 1995 level, but still not as high as wages for this group in 1970 (in 2000 dollars).
• The gap between mean weekly wages for white and black men with low education levels has narrowed significantly over time, but expanded slightly in 2000. In 1970, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled black men working full-time was $497 (in 2000 dollars), or 70 percent of the $706 average for white men. However, full-time working black men with no more than a high school education received 88 percent of the mean weekly wages of white men in 1999 ($573 compared to $654). In 2000, the wages of low-skilled black men were 85 percent of those of white men with a similar level of education ($565 compared to $667). The gap between mean weekly wages for white and black men with low education levels has narrowed significantly.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 4.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

Figure WORK 4.
Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over, by Level of Educational Attainment: 1960-2001

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Educational Attainment in the United States: March 2001,” Current Population Reports, Series PPL-157, February 2002, and earlier reports.

• There has been a marked decline over the past forty years in the percentage of the population who has not earned a high school diploma. This percentage fell from 59 percent in 1960 to a little under 16 percent in 2001.
• The percentage of the population receiving a high school education only (with no subsequent college) was 25 percent in 1960 and rose to 39 percent in 1988. Since then this figure has fallen to 33 percent, although some of this decline is a result of a change in the survey methodology in 1992 (see note to Table WORK 4).
• Between 1960 and 1990, the percentage of the population with some college (one to three years) doubled, from 9 percent to 18 percent. The apparent jump in 1992 is a result of a change in the survey methodology (see note to Table WORK 4), but the trend continued upward, reaching nearly 26 percent in 2001.
• The percentage of the population completing four or more years of college more than tripled from 1960 to 2001, rising steadily from 8 percent to a little over 26 percent.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 5.
HIGH-SCHOOL DROPOUT RATES

Figure WORK 5.
Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States: 2000 and earlier years (based on Current Population Survey data from the October supplement).

• With the exception of a small upward movement in 1988, the dropout rates for teens in grades 10 to 12 declined steadily from 1979 to 1991. From a low of 4 percent, the rate began rising to a peak of 5.7 percent in 1995. Following this upturn, the overall rate again declined to 4.6 percent in 1997; since then it has fluctuated, moving up to 5.0 percent in 1999 and then back down again to 4.8 percent in 2000.
• Dropout rates among Hispanic and black teens have fluctuated considerably over time. Still, dropout rates are generally highest for Hispanic teens and lowest for white teens. In 2000, the dropout rate was 7.4 percent for Hispanic teens, compared to 6.1 percent for black teens and 4.1 percent for white teens.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 6.
ADULT ALCOHOL AND SUBSTANCE ABUSE

Figure WORK 6.
Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol, by Age: 2000

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

• In 2000, young adults (ages 18 to 25) were more likely than older adults to report alcohol abuse, marijuana use, or cocaine use in the past month. About one in seven (14 percent) of adults 18 to 25 reported using marijuana in the past month during 2000, compared with 6 percent of adults 26 to 34 and 2 percent of adults 35 and older. Young adults were also significantly more likely to abuse alcohol than older adults.
• The percentages of persons reporting binge alcohol use in 1999 and 2000 were significantly larger than the percentages for all other reported behaviors across all age groups, as shown in Table WORK 6.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 7.
ADULT/CHILD DISABILITY

Figure WORK 7.
Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, by Age: 2000

Source: Provisional data from the 2000 National Health Interview Survey.

• In 2000, 12 percent of all Americans had an activity-limiting disability. In addition, activity-limiting disabilities were reported by 6 percent of children, 10 percent of adults under the age of 65, and 36 percent of elderly adults in 2000.
• Among the non-elderly population, rates of activity limitation were very similar for non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks in 2000 (9 percent and 10 percent, respectively), but lower for Hispanics (6 percent), as shown in Table WORK 7.
• While adults were more likely than children to report an activity limitation, a higher percentage of children than adults were actually recipients of disability program benefits in 2000 (5.5 percent compared to 3.8 percent), as shown in Table WORK 7.
• Elderly adults were far more likely than adults under the age of 65 to have activity limitations, work disabilities, or long-term care needs in 2000.

EMPLOYMENT AND WORK-RELATED RISK FACTOR 8.
CHILDREN'S HEALTH CONDITIONS

Figure WORK 8.
Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to 17: Selected Years

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1998. Table HC 2.5.

• Respiratory conditions, especially chronic sinusitis and asthma, were the most prevalent chronic health conditions experienced in recent years by children.
• Rates for asthma show some year-to-year variation, but were higher in the mid-1990s (62 to 75 children per thousand) than in the mid-1980s (43 to 53 children per thousand). Like rates for asthma, the prevalence of chronic sinusitis has both increased and showed considerable year-to-year variation.
• In 1996, 26 children per thousand had a deformity or orthopedic impairment, down from a high of 36 children per thousand in 1987, as shown in Table WORK 8.
• The rate for heart disease among children has ranged from a low of 18 cases per thousand in 1994 to a high of 24 cases per thousand in 1996, with no clear trend.

NON-MARITAL BIRTH RISK FACTOR 1.
BIRTHS TO UNMARRIED WOMEN

Figure BIRTH 1.
Births to Unmarried Women as a Percentage of All Births, by Age Group: 1940-2000

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

• The percentage of children born outside of marriage to women of all ages has increased over the past half-century, from 4 percent in 1940 to 33 percent in 2000. This increase reflects changes in several factors: the rate at which unmarried women have children, the rate at which married women have children, and the rate at which women marry.
• The percentage of children born outside of marriage is especially high among teen women. Close to four-fifths (79 percent) of all births to teens took place outside of marriage in 2000.
• After fifty years of growth, the percentage of unmarried births to all women has almost leveled off since 1994. Growth in the percentage of unmarried births to teen mothers has also slowed since 1994, but it is still rising (from 76 percent in 1994 to 79 percent in 2000).
• Recently, the percentage of out-of-wedlock births has leveled off among black teens and all black women. Among white teens and all white women, the trend continues upward (see Table C-1 in Appendix C for non-marital birth data by age and race).