Indicators of Welfare Dependence: Annual Report to Congress, 2000

Publication Date

Feb 29, 2000

Prepared by Staff of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Acknowledgements

Contributors to this report include Gil Crouse, Susan Hauan, Julia Isaacs, and Matthew Lyon of the Office of Human Services Policy under the direction of Patricia Ruggles, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Human Services Policy, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation.

Obtaining a Printed Copy of Report

Send the report title and your name and address by mail or fax to (and we will mail a copy):

Office of Human Services Policy
Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation
Hubert H. Humphrey Bldg., Room 404E
200 Independence Ave., S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20201
Fax: 202-690-6562

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services to prepare an annual report to Congress on indicators welfare dependence. The Indicators of Welfare Dependence report is prepared within the Office of Human Services Policy and delivered to Congress each spring. As mandated under the Congressional act, the report addresses the rate of welfare dependency, the degree and duration of welfare recipiency and dependence, and predictors of welfare dependence. Further, analyses of means-tested assistance in the report include benefits under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program; the Food Stamp Program, and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. The report also includes risk factors related to economic security, employment, and non-marital births, as well an appendix with data related to the above programs.

Executive Summary

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Department of Health and Human Services to prepare annual reports to Congress on indicators and predictors of welfare dependence. This Annual Report on Welfare Indicators, March 2000 is the third of these annual reports. As directed by the Act, the report focuses on benefits under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, now Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF); the Food Stamp Program; and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program.

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in degree and in duration. Families may be more or less dependent if larger or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare programs. The amount of time over which families depend on welfare might also be considered in assessing their degree of dependency. Although recognizing the difficulties inherent in defining and measuring dependence, the bipartisan Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators proposed the following definition, as one measure to examine in concert with other key indicators of dependence and deprivation

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, food stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

The proposed definition is difficult to measure because of limitations with existing data collection efforts. Most importantly, the available data do not distinguish between cash benefits where work is required and non-work-related cash benefits. In addition, there are time lags in the availability of national survey data that provide sufficiently detailed information to measure dependence. The majority of data in this year's annual report, for example, are from 1995 and do not capture the changes that have taken place since enactment of the welfare reform act in August 1996. Nevertheless, this report provides a number of key indicators of welfare recipiency, dependence, and labor force attachment. Selected highlights from the many findings in the report include the following:

In 1995, the most recent year for which data are available from the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 5.1 percent of the total population was dependent in the sense of receiving more than half of total income from AFDC, food stamps, and/or SSI (see Indicator 1, Figure IND 1a). This rate is lower than the rates experienced in 1993 and 1994, but not as low as in 1987 and 1990. This dependency rate would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare income associated with work required to obtain benefits.
The percentage of the population that received AFDC/TANF in 1998 was lower than in any year since 1970, according to administrative data. Food Stamp Program administrative data indicate that recipiency rates for food stamps also were at 20-year lows (see Indicators 9a and 9b). The dependency rate, as defined above, can not yet be measured for 1996-1998, because of the aforementioned lags in availability of national survey data. Still, the decline in recipiency rates strongly suggests that dependency is lower now than it was in 1995.
Long-term dependency is relatively rare. Only 4 percent of those who were recipients in 1982 received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps in nine or more years over a ten-year period. This represents less than 0.5 percent of the total population. Half of the 1982 recipients never received more than 50 percent of their annual income from AFDC and food stamps over the 1982-1991 time period (see Indicator 1, Figure IND 1b).
Recipients of AFDC, food stamps, and SSI are less apt to have a family member participating in the labor force than are individuals in the general population. In 1995, 46 percent of AFDC recipients, 54 percent of food stamp recipients, and 37 percent of SSI recipients were in families with at least one member in the labor force (see Indicator 4, Figure IND 1a). The comparable figure for the overall population was 83 percent. Full-time participation in the labor force has increased among AFDC families between 1993 and 1995, according to the SIPP data (see Indicator 4, Figure IND 1b). Other data sources indicate that this trend of increased labor force participation has continued through 1998.

Since the causes of welfare receipt and dependence are not clearly known, the report also includes a larger set of risk factors associated with welfare receipt. The risk factors are loosely organized into three categories: economic security measures, measures related to employment and barriers to employment, and measures of nonmarital childbearing. The economic security risk factors include measures of poverty and deprivation that are important not only as predictors of dependence, but also as a supplement to the dependence indicators, ensuring that dependence measures are not assessed in isolation. It is important to examine whether decreases in dependency are accompanied by improvements in family economic status (as, for example, if work activities increase) or by reductions in family material circumstances. The report includes data on the official poverty rate, one of the most common measures of deprivation:

As the dependency rate fell between 1993 and 1995, the poverty rate for all individuals fell also, from 15.1 percent in 1993 to 13.8 percent in 1995. The poverty rate has continued to fall since then, declining to a ten-year low of 12.7 percent in 1998 (see Economic Security Risk Factor 1, Figure ECON 1a).

Finally, the report has two appendices that provide additional program data on major welfare programs, as well as additional data on non-marital births.

Chapter I: Introduction

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 (Pub. L. 103-432) directed the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to publish an annual report on welfare dependency. The purpose of this report is to address questions concerning the extent to which American families depend on income from welfare programs. HHS has been specifically directed to address the rate of welfare dependency, the degree and duration of welfare recipiency and dependence, and predictors of welfare dependence. The Act further specified that analyses of means-tested assistance should include benefits under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, now Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF); the Food Stamp Program; and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program.

An Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators was established under the 1994 Act to assist the Secretary in defining welfare dependence, developing indicators of welfare dependence, and choosing appropriate data for inclusion in the first annual report. The Board consisted of a bipartisan group of experts appointed by the Senate, the House of Representatives and the President. Before its termination in October 1997, the Board developed a statistical definition of welfare dependence and oversaw the production of the first of these annual reports.

This March 2000 report, the third annual report, gives updated data on the measures of welfare recipiency, dependency, and predictors of welfare dependence developed for previous reports. It differs in two respects from earlier volumes. First, this report focuses on a smaller set of indicators and predictors of dependency, in keeping with Congressional intent. The reduction in length of the report also reflects the decision to move some of the more detailed data on poverty and deprivation to other Departmental publications.¹ A second change is that the date of publication has been moved from October to March, in conformance with the report's authorizing legislation, which requires the report to be released within sixty days of the start of the legislative session. A March release also allows the Department to present more timely data, as many important administrative and national survey figures are released at the end of the year.

¹Further data on poverty and income, as well as current and past annual reports on Indicators of Welfare Dependence, are available online at http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/index.htm. This same web page provides access to the annual Trends in the Well-Being of America's Children and Youth, another important data source for indicators of economic, health, and social well-being.

Organization of Report

This introductory chapter provides an overview of the specific summary measures of welfare dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. It also discusses summary measures of poverty, following the Board's recommendation that dependence measures not be assessed in isolation from measures of deprivation. Analysis of both measures is important because changes in dependence measures could result either from increases in work activity and other factors that would raise family incomes, or from sanctions or other changes in welfare programs that would reduce welfare program participation but might not improve the material circumstances of these families. The introduction concludes with a brief discussion of data sources used for the report.

Chapter II of the report, Indicators of Dependence, presents a broader group of indicators of welfare recipiency and dependence. These indicators include measures of the extent of recipiency for each of the three programs considered separately, as well as information on income from all three programs in combination. Interactions of AFDC/TANF, SSI and food stamp benefits with periods of employment and with benefits from other programs are also shown. The second chapter also includes data on movements on and off welfare programs.

Chapter III, Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt, focuses on predictors of welfare dependence — risk factors believed to be associated with welfare receipt in some way. These predictors are shown in three different groups:

Economic security — including measures of poverty, receipt of child support, health insurance coverage, and food insecurity — is important in predicting dependence in the sense that families with fewer economic resources are more likely to rely on welfare programs for their support.
Measures of the work status and barriers to employment of adult family members also are critical, because families must generally receive an adequate income from employment in order to avoid dependence without severe deprivation.
Finally, data on non-marital births are important since history has shown that a high proportion of long-term welfare recipients became parents outside of marriage, frequently as teen parents.

Additional data are presented in two appendices. Appendix A provides basic program data on each of the main welfare programs and their recipients, while Appendix B includes additional data on non-marital childbearing. The main welfare programs included in Appendix A are:

The Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, the largest cash assistance program, provided monthly cash benefits to families with children, until its replacement by the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, which is run directly by the states. Data on the AFDC and TANF programs are provided in Appendix A, with AFDC data provided from 1977 through June 1997, and TANF data from July 1997 through 1998, or when available, 1999.
The Food Stamp Program provides monthly food stamp coupons to all individuals, whether they are living in families or alone, provided their income and assets are below thresholds set in Federal law. It reaches more poor people over the course of a year than any other means-tested public assistance program. Appendix A provides historical data from 1970 to 1998, or when available, 1999.
The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program provides monthly cash payments to elderly, blind, or disabled individuals or couples whose income and assets are below levels set in Federal law. Though the majority of recipients are adults, disabled children also are eligible. Historical data from 1974 through 1998 are provided in Appendix A.

Measuring Welfare Dependence

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in degree and in duration. Families may be more or less dependent if larger or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare programs. The amount of time over which a family depends on welfare might also be considered in assessing its degree of dependency. Nevertheless, a summary measure of dependence to be used as an indicator for policy purposes must have some fixed parameters that allow one to determine which families should be counted as dependent, just as the poverty line defines who is poor under the official standard. The definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board for this purpose is as follows:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC, food stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

This measure is not without its limitations. The Advisory Board recognized that no single measure could fully capture all aspects of dependence and that the proposed measure should be examined in concert with other key indicators of dependence and deprivation. In addition, while the proposed definition would count unsubsidized and subsidized employment and work required to obtain benefits as work activities, existing data sources do not permit distinguishing between welfare income associated with work activities and non-work-related welfare benefits. As a result, the data shown in this report overstate the incidence of dependence (as defined above) because welfare income associated with work required to obtain benefits is classified as welfare and not as income from work. This issue may be growing in importance under the increased work requirements of the TANF program. In 1998, the percentage of welfare recipients who were working (including employment, work experience, and community service) reached an all-time high of 27 percent, compared to the 7 percent recorded in 1992.²

This proposed definition also represents an essentially arbitrary choice of a percentage (50 percent) of income from welfare beyond which families will be considered dependent. However, it is relatively easy to measure and to track over time, and is likely to be associated with any very large changes in total dependence, however defined. For example, as the recent changes in welfare law move more recipients into employment or work-related activities, dependence under this definition is expected to decline.

In 1995, the most recent year for which complete population data are available on monthly income and benefit recipiency, 17 percent of the population received means-tested assistance, as shown in Figure SUM 1. Less than one-third of this group, or about 5 percent of the total population, would be considered "dependent" on welfare under the above definition. Recipiency and dependency rates in 1995 were lower than in 1993 and 1994, but were still higher than they had been in 1987 and 1990. These numbers are consistent with administrative data showing a peak in AFDC caseloads in 1993 and in food stamp caseloads in 1994 and a decrease in both programs since that time. What is not apparent from administrative records, but is shown in these national survey data, is that the dependency rate peaked in 1993, declining over the next two years until it reached 5.1 percent in 1995, close to the same level as in 1992.

Figure SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1987-95

Figure SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1987-95

Note: Recipiency is defined as receipt of any amount of AFDC, SSI, or food stamps during year. Dependency is defined as having more than 50 percent of annual income from AFDC, SSI and/or food stamps. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Dependency rates would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare assistance associated with working. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

Recipiency and dependency rates are higher for non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites, as shown in Table SUM 1, which shows these rates for various racial and age categories. Recipiency and dependency also are higher for young children than for adults.

Table SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1987-95

	1987	1990	1992	1993	1994	1995
Recipiency Rates (Receipt of Any Amount of AFDC, Food Stamps, or SSI)
All Persons	14.9	14.1	16.9	17.0	18.0	17.0
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	9.3	8.9	11.0	10.9	11.1	10.4
Non-Hispanic Black	40.9	36.6	41.0	41.8	43.2	40.9
Hispanic	28.3	29.5	33.3	33.9	37.1	34.6
Age Categories
Children Ages 0 - 5	24.5	24.0	28.9	29.0	32.4	27.6
Children Ages 6 - 10	23.2	20.2	23.8	24.0	28.6	28.7
Children Ages 11 - 15	19.8	18.8	23.2	22.6	24.9	23.6

Women Ages 16 - 64	14.4	14.1	17.0	17.3	17.5	16.8
Men Ages 16 - 64	10.1	9.5	11.8	12.0	12.3	11.5
Adults Age 65 and over	13.6	12.1	12.6	12.2	12.3	12.2
Dependency Rates (More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance)
All Persons	4.7	4.2	4.9	5.9	5.6	5.1
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	2.2	2.1	2.4	2.8	2.6	2.3
Non-Hispanic Black	15.7	14.6	15.9	16.7	16.8	15.2
Hispanic	10.9	8.3	10.5	14.2	12.9	12.2
Age Categories
Children Ages 0 - 5	10.0	10.3	12.2	13.3	12.5	10.6
Children Ages 6 - 10	10.1	8.5	9.5	12.3	12.0	11.6
Children Ages 11 - 15	8.0	6.4	7.5	10.5	9.3	9.1

Women Ages 16 - 64	4.6	4.6	5.0	5.8	5.5	5.2
Men Ages 16 - 64	2.0	1.5	1.9	2.7	2.5	2.3
Adults Age 65 and over	2.6	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.2	1.8

Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC, SSI and food stamps. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Dependency rates would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare assistance associated with working. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

Dependency on assistance also varies depending upon which programs are counted as "welfare programs," as shown in Table SUM 2. Dependency is highest — 5.1 percent — when income from all three programs (AFDC, food stamps, and SSI) is counted, as in the first column of Table SUM 1 (and most of the report). Dependency is lower — 3.7 percent — when counting AFDC/TANF and food stamp benefits only, as in the second column of Table SUM 2. In general, 70 to 75 percent of individuals who are dependent under the standard definition also are dependent under the alternative definition that considers AFDC and food stamps alone (as is done in some measures in this report). Note, however, that the elderly depend more on SSI than on AFDC and food stamps; whereas 1.8 percent of elderly persons are dependent when counting the three major types of means-tested assistance, very few, 0.3 percent, are dependent when the definition is limited to AFDC and food stamps.

In general, non-whites and the very young were more likely to be dependent than other racial and age categories, and they are primarily dependent on AFDC and food stamps. Even in these populations, however, the vast majority of families do not meet the criteria for dependence.

Table SUM 2. Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Various Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race and Age: 1995

	AFDC, SSI, & Food Stamps	AFDC & Food Stamps	SSI only
All Persons	5.1	3.7	0.9
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic	2.3	1.6	0.5
Non-Hispanic	15.2	10.5	2.4
Hispanic	12.2	9.8	1.6
Age Categories
Children Ages 0 - 5	10.6	10.4	0.5
Children Ages 6 - 10	11.6	8.9	0.5
Children Ages 11 - 15	9.1	6.9	0.8

Women Ages 16 - 64	5.2	3.5	1.1
Men Ages 16 - 64	2.3	1.1	0.7
Adults Age 65 and over	1.8	0.3	1.3

Note: While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

The summary measure of dependence shown in Table SUM 1 focuses on the percentage of income received from means-tested assistance over a one-year time period. It also is important to look at dependency over a longer term perspective, as is done in Table SUM 3, which examines long-term recipiency and long-term dependency among AFDC recipients.

Half (50 percent) of all those who received welfare in 1982 did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamp benefits in any of the ten years between 1982 and 1991. About one-quarter (23 percent) were dependent for one to two years, 15 percent for three to five years, and 13 percent for six or more years.

Long-term dependence is rarer than long-term recipiency. Only 4 percent of those who were recipients in 1982, for example, received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps for nine to ten years. This is a smaller percentage than the proportion of recipients that received welfare of any amount for nine to ten years (11 percent). Child recipients have longer spells of welfare receipt and welfare dependence than do recipients in general, as shown in the table.

Table SUM 3. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Multiple Years of Receipt and Dependency, by Years and Age: 1982–91

	All Recipients (in 1982)	All Child Recipients (0-5 in 1982)
Years of Recipiency, 1982–1991 (Any AFDC Receipt)
1 - 2 Years	47	34
3 - 5 Years	28	29
6 - 8 Years	15	17
9 - 10 Years	11	20
Years of Dependency, 1982–1991 (AFDC & Food Stamps, >50% of Income)
0 Years	50	34
1 - 2 Years	23	28
3 - 5 Years	15	16
6 - 8 Years	9	13
9 - 10 Years	4	8

Note: "Any AFDC Receipt" is defined as whether an individual has received any amount of AFDC at any time during the year. "AFDC & Food Stamps, >50% of Income" is defined as whether the sum of an individual's AFDC and food stamp benefits was more than 50% of their yearly income. "0 Years" means that while an individual received means-tested assistance, his or her benefits were not greater than 50 percent of his or her income for any years during the time period. Note that this table shows years of receipt and dependency between 1982 and 1991 and does not take into account years of receipt or dependency that may have occurred before 1982.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1983 – 1992.

²The earnings of those in unsubsidized employment would be correctly captured as income from work in national surveys. Any welfare benefits associated with work experience, community service programs or other work activities, however, would be counted as income from welfare in most national surveys, an incorrect classification according to the proposed definition.

Measuring Deprivation

Changes in dependence may or may not be associated with changes in the level of deprivation, depending on the alternative sources of support found by families who might otherwise be dependent on welfare. To assess the social impacts of any change in dependence, changes in the level of poverty or deprivation also must be considered. One way of measuring deprivation is to look at changes in the level of need over time. Elsewhere in this report, for example, measures of food insecurity and lack of health insurance are presented.

The deprivation measure presented in this chapter, however, focuses directly on changes in the poverty rate, both under the official poverty rate and under expanded measures that take into account taxes and non-cash benefits. These measures also show the degree to which welfare and related programs are effective in moving people out of poverty. The data, shown in Table SUM 4 and its related figure, illustrate two primary points. First, cash welfare and non-cash welfare benefits such as food and housing reduce the number of poor families. Second, under any of the four alternate income measures presented in Table SUM 4, poverty rates have been decreasing since 1993, as economic conditions have improved and policies have promoted and rewarded work. Each of these points is discussed below.

Four different concepts of income are used in Table SUM 4, which shows alternative measures of poverty rates for all persons between 1979 and 1998. (A graph of these data is presented in Figure SUM 4, and a similar analysis is presented for the subset of the population that lives in families with related children under age 18 in Table SUM 5.) The four measures are as follows:

"Cash Income plus All Social Insurance" is earnings and other private cash income, plus social security, workers' compensation, and other social insurance programs. This income measure, which excludes welfare, would result in a poverty rate of 13.5 percent in 1998.
"Plus Means-Tested Assistance" shows the official poverty rate, which takes into account means-tested assistance, primarily AFDC and SSI. Poverty rates under this official measure are almost one percentage point lower, 12.7 percent in 1998. This indicates that many more families would be poor if they did not receive welfare benefits.
"Plus Food and Housing Benefits" shows how poverty would be lower if the cash value of food and housing benefits were counted as income. Under this definition, poverty rates would fall by more than one additional percentage point, to 11.3 percent in 1998.
"Plus EITC and Federal Taxes" is the most comprehensive poverty rate shown in Table SUM 4. It takes into account the effect of taxes, and is thus a more complete measure of deprivation than is the official poverty rate or other measures that exclude some types of support. Since 1993, taxes, including the refunds through the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), have caused additional reductions in poverty. By 1998, this measure of poverty was 10.5 percent.

Figure SUM 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-98

Figure SUM 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-98

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by HHS.

Table SUM 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: Selected Years

	1979	1983	1986	1989	1993	1995	1996	1997	1998
Cash Income plus All Social Insurance	12.8	16.0	14.5	13.7	16.3	14.9	14.8	14.2	13.5
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	11.6	15.2	13.6	12.8	15.1	13.8	13.7	13.3	12.7
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	9.7	13.7	12.2	11.2	13.4	12.0	12.1	11.9	11.3
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	10.0	14.7	13.1	11.7	13.3	11.5	11.5	11.1	10.5
Reduction in Poverty Rate	2.8	1.3	1.4	2.0	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.1	3.0

Note: The first measure of poverty, labeled cash income plus all social insurance, includes social security but not meanstested cash transfers. Adding means-tested cash transfers yields the official census definition of poverty, the second line in the table. Food and housing benefits may be received either as cash or (more generally) as in-kind benefits, in which case the market value of food and housing benefits is added. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit, which is always a positive adjustment to income whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. The fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid is not included.

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by HHS.

The combined effect of means-tested assistance, food and housing benefits, and EITC and taxes was to reduce the poverty rate in 1998 by three percentage points, from 13.5 percent to 10.5 percent. The total reduction in the poverty rate is shown in the final row of Table SUM 4.

As economic conditions improved during the mid-1990s, poverty rates decreased under all four concepts of income. Of particular interest are the poverty rates in 1995, the same year as the dependence rates shown in Table SUM 1, and the poverty rates in 1998, the most recent year for which data are available. In 1995, the final poverty rate was 11.5 percent after adding in non-cash benefits and taxes, a decline from 13.3 percent in 1993. Over the same time period, the dependence measure also declined, from 5.9 percent to 5.1 percent.

More current data indicate that the poverty rate continued to fall between 1995 and 1998, falling to 12.7 percent under the official measure and 10.5 percent under the most comprehensive measure. Data are not yet available on dependence measures for 1998, although administrative data on caseloads indicate a continuing decline in overall receipt of AFDC/TANF and food stamps.

During most of the past two decades, means-tested benefits (including cash assistance, food and housing benefits, and the EITC and other taxes), have caused a net reduction in poverty rates for individuals of about three percentage points. The net effectiveness of these programs in reducing the poverty rate was somewhat lower during the recession of the early 1980s, and was somewhat higher in the mid 1990's, largely due to expansions in the EITC (see Figure SUM 4 and Table SUM 4).

The net effect of all sources of means-tested support (including cash assistance, food and housing benefits, and the EITC and taxes) on the reduction in poverty is higher for persons in families with related children under 18. The gap between poverty rates before and after public assistance has ranged from 3.5 to over 5 percentage points for these individuals in recent years, as shown in Table SUM 5. Again, the net effectiveness of means-tested programs was lower in the mid 1980s and highest in the mid 1990s.

Since the enactment of PRWORA in 1996 and the subsequent implementation of TANF, caseloads for AFDC/TANF and food stamps have fallen dramatically. Although dependency measures as defined in this report are not yet available for the period after PRWORA, available measures on recipiency rates suggest that the legislation has been successful in causing a noticeable fall in dependence on welfare programs. The deprivation measures presented in Tables SUM 4 and 5 suggest that these large caseload declines have been accomplished without observed increases in deprivation. In fact, under the strong economy of the late 1990s, poverty rates are at their lowest levels since 1989. It will be important to continue to track changes in these dependency and deprivation rates over the next several years, to see how they are affected by future changes in economic conditions.

Table SUM 5. Percentage of All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18 Years of Age in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: Selected Years

	1979	1981	1983	1986	1989	1991	1993	1995	1996	1997	1998
Cash Income plus All Social Insurance	14.3	17.4	19.1	17.4	16.8	18.8	20.0	18.1	17.8	17.0	16.1
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	12.9	16.3	18.4	16.5	15.8	17.7	18.7	16.8	16.6	15.9	15.2
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	10.2	13.9	16.5	14.6	13.6	15.3	16.4	14.3	14.4	14.1	13.2
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	10.5	15.2	17.7	15.8	14.1	15.3	15.9	13.0	12.9	12.4	11.6
Reduction in Poverty Rate	3.8	2.2	1.4	1.6	3.5	3.5	4.1	5.1	4.9	4.6	4.5

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations. Additional calculations by HHS.

Data Sources

For purposes of this report, the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) has been used the most extensively and is considered the most useful national survey. Its strengths are its longitudinal design, system of monthly accounting, and detail concerning employment, income and participation in federal income-support and related programs. These features make the SIPP particularly effective for capturing the complexities of program dynamics and many of the indicators and predictors, or risk factors, associated with welfare receipt.

The SIPP does not, however, follow families for more than three years. Therefore, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) also is used in this report. The PSID collects annual income data, including transfer income, over a long time-period, providing vital data for indicators of long-term welfare receipt, dependence, and deprivation.

Some indicators in this report are based upon the annual March Current Population Survey (CPS), which is available on a more timely basis than the SIPP. The March CPS measures income and poverty over a single annual accounting period, and provides important information regarding child poverty. Finally, the report also draws upon administrative data for the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI programs.

One of the difficulties in preparing this year's annual report has been the challenge of obtaining recent data from the SIPP and the PSID, the two data sources used for most of the report. The most recent SIPP data available at the time of preparation of this year's annual report were 1995 data, collected from the third year of the 1993 SIPP three-year panel. Data from 1995, however, do not reflect many of the dramatic changes in welfare programs that have occurred since enactment of the welfare reform legislation in August 1996. Two more years of SIPP data are expected to be available next year, allowing an update of many indicators through early implementation of the TANF program.

PSID data for the mid- to late-1990s also were not available at the time of updating this report. Instead, the indicators that are based on PSID data cover the same ten-year period (1982-1991) as in last year's volume. Updated PSID analyses will be published in next year's report.

The most recent data are from the CPS and administrative sources. The CPS data are available for calendar year 1998 (and in some cases, March 1999), while administrative data are generally available through fiscal year 1998 (or, for some aggregate caseload statistics, fiscal year 1999). To the extent possible, TANF administrative data are reported in a consistent manner with data from the earlier AFDC program, as noted in the footnotes to the tables in Appendix A. The fact remains that assistance under locally designed TANF programs encompasses a diverse set of cash and non-cash services designed to support families in making a transition to work, and so direct comparisons between AFDC receipt and TANF receipt must be made with caution. This issue also will affect reported data on TANF receipt in national data sets such as the SIPP, once these are available.

Most of the data sources allow analysis of the indicators and predictors of welfare dependence across several age and race/ethnic categories. Where the data are available, statistics are shown for three racial/ethnic groups — non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics. In some instances, however, there are not sufficient data on individuals of Hispanic origin, and so the measures are shown for only two racial/ethnic categories.

A final technical note concerns the unit of analysis and the measurement of benefit receipt. The individual, rather than the family or household, is the unit of analysis for most of the statistics in this report. An individual is considered a recipient of AFDC/TANF or food stamps if he or she lives in a family receiving such benefits. In contrast, the SSI program provides benefits to individuals and couples, and so an individual is only considered an SSI recipient if he or she directly receives such an SSI benefit. All means-tested benefits — AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI — are summed together with earnings and other sources of income for all individuals in a family unit to determine total family income, which is used to determine the poverty status, dependency status, and income levels for all individuals in the family.

Chapter II . Indicators of Dependence

Following the format of the previous annual reports to Congress, this second chapter presents summary data related to indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested measuring dependence as the proportion of families with more than 50 percent of their total income in a oneyear period coming from AFDC, food stamps and/or SSI. Furthermore, this welfare income was not to be associated with work activities.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about dependence, following, to the extent feasible, the definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence; that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities. Instead, this chapter includes some indicators that focus on the percentage of recipients’ income from meanstested assistance, while other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt. Still other indicators present summary data and characteristics on all recipients, not limited to those with more than 50 percent of total income from welfare programs or those without work activities

Overall, the ten indicators of dependency were selected to reflect both the range and depth of dependence. Here is a brief summary of each of the ten indicators:

Indicator 1: Degree of Dependence. This indicator focuses most closely on those individuals who meet the Advisory Board’s proposed definition of “dependence.” In addition to examining those individuals with more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC, food stamps and/or SSI, it examines those with more than 0 percent, 25 percent and 75 percent of their income from such sources, showing various levels of dependence (Indicator 1a). Dependency over a ten-year ime period is also examined (Indicator 1b), as is the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings received by various families (Indicator 1c).

Indicator 2: Dependence Spell Transitions. This indicator looks at the ability of individuals who are dependent on welfare in one year to make the transition out of dependence in the following year.

Indicator 3: Dependence Spell Duration. Like Indicator 2, this indicator is concerned with dynamics of welfare receipt and welfare dependence. It shows the proportion of individuals with short, medium, and long spells, or episodes, of AFDC receipt. The focus is on individuals in families with no labor force participants, following the Board’s interest in welfare income that is not associated with work activities. Information on spell lengths for SSI and food stamps is provided in Indicator 5.

Indicator 4: Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment. This indicator looks further at the relationship between receipt of means-tested assistance and participation in the labor force. This is an important issue because of the significant number of low-income individuals who use a combination of means-tested assistance and earnings from the labor force to get by each month.

Indicator 5: Program Spell Duration. One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. Like Indicator 3, this indicator provides information on short, medium, and long spells of welfare receipt. It differs from Indicator 3 in looking at all recipients, regardless of attachment to the labor force, and in analyzing recipients of each of the three major means-tested programs – AFDC, food stamps, and SSI.

Indicator 6: Long-Term Receipt. Many individuals who leave welfare programs cycle back on after an absence of several months. Thus it is important to look beyond individual program spells, measured in Indicator 5, to examine the cumulative amount of time individuals receive assistance over a period of several years. The issue of long-term receipt is particularly important in light of the five-year time limit in the TANF program.

Indicator 7: Multiple Program Receipt. Depending on their circumstances, individuals may choose a variety of different means-tested assistance “packages.” This indicator looks at the percentage of individuals combining AFDC, food stamps, and SSI, examining how many rely on just one of these programs, and how many rely on a two-program or three-program package.

Indicator 8: Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells. To gain a better understanding of welfare dynamics, it is important to go beyond measures of spell duration and examine information regarding the major events in people’s lives that are correlated with the beginnings or endings of program spells. This measure focuses on receipt of AFDC.

Indicator 9: Rate of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance. This indicator paints yet another picture of dependence by measuring recipiency rates, that is, the percentage of the population which receive AFDC, food stamps, or SSI in an average month. These data are readily available over time for the last 3 decades, allowing a better sense of historical trends than is available from the more specialized Indicators of dependence presented above.

Indicator 10: Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs. While means-tested public assistance programs are open to all that meet their requirements, not all eligible households participate in the programs. This indicator reflects “take up rates” – the number of families that actually participate in the programs as a percent of those who are eligible.

Indicators in this chapter focus on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for elderly and disabled recipients, and the Food Stamp Program. Only limited administrative data are available to report on recipients of the new Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. These are shown in Indicator 9a, which reports TANF recipiency rates for 1998. Information on how other dependency measures were affected by the replacement of the AFDC program by the TANF program will not be available until SIPP and other national survey data for 1998 are available.

Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence

Figure IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1995

Figure IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1995

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

About 5 percent of the total population in 1995 received more than half of their total income from AFDC, food stamps and SSI. This number represents a decline from the proportion dependent on public assistance in 1993 (5.9 percent), but was not as low as the percentage in 1990 (4.2 percent), as shown in Table IND 1a.
Over four-fifths (83 percent) of the total population received no means-tested assistance in 1995. The inverse of this, the recipiency rate, (those receiving at least $1 of assistance from one of the three programs), was 17 percent. The proportion receiving no assistance has varied between 82 and 86 percent in previous years.
In 1995, as in earlier years, the majority of individuals receiving some public assistance reported that AFDC, food stamps, and SSI accounted for one-quarter or less of their total family income.
As shown in Table IND 1a, a larger percentage of non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics received more than 50 percent of their income from means-tested assistance programs than non-Hispanic whites in all six years presented. However, even among these minority groups, more than 80 percent were not dependent on welfare under the definition used here.

Table IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race and Age: Selected Years

	0%	> 0% and <= 25%	> 25% and <= 50%	Total > 50%	> 50% and <= 75%	Total > 75%
	0%	> 0% and <= 25%	> 25% and <= 50%	Total > 50%	> 50% and <= 75%	Total > 75%	1995
All Persons	83.0	9.4	2.5	5.1	1.4	3.8
Non-Hispanic White	89.6	6.9	1.4	2.3	0.8	1.6
Non-Hispanic Black	59.1	18.8	7.0	15.2	3.3	11.9
Hispanic	65.4	16.8	5.6	12.2	3.1	9.2
Children Ages 0 – 5	72.4	13.0	4.0	10.6	2.0	8.6
Children Ages 6 – 10	71.3	10.7	4.2	11.6	2.4	9.2
Children Ages 11 – 15	76.4	10.9	3.6	9.1	2.7	6.4
Women Ages 16 – 64	82.7	9.1	2.4	5.2	1.5	3.7
Men Ages 16 – 64	88.5	7.8	1.5	2.3	1.5	1.6
Adults Age 65 and over	87.8	8.1	2.3	1.8	0.7	1.1
	1994
All Persons	82.0	9.9	2.5	5.6	1.6	4.0
Non-Hispanic White	88.9	7.1	1.4	2.6	0.9	1.7
Non-Hispanic Black	56.8	20.0	6.3	16.8	5.1	11.7
Hispanic	62.9	17.9	6.3	12.9	3.2	9.7
Children Ages 0 – 5	67.6	14.6	5.3	12.5	2.8	9.7
Children Ages 6 – 10	71.4	12.6	4.0	12.0	3.0	9.0
Children Ages 11 – 15	75.1	11.8	3.9	9.3	2.6	6.7
Women Ages 16 – 64	82.5	9.7	2.3	5.5	1.7	3.8
Men Ages 16 – 64	87.7	8.4	1.4	2.5	0.9	1.6
Adults Age 65 and over	87.7	8.2	2.0	2.2	1.0	1.1
	1993
All Persons	82.2	9.5	2.5	5.9	1.6	4.3
Non-Hispanic White	88.8	7.0	1.4	2.8	0.8	2.0
Non-Hispanic Black	58.6	17.7	6.9	16.7	5.0	11.8
Hispanic	62.9	17.2	5.7	14.2	3.2	11.0
Children Ages 0 – 5	68.5	13.9	4.3	13.3	2.9	10.4
Children Ages 6 – 10	72.8	11.1	3.9	12.3	2.7	9.7
Children Ages 11 – 15	75.9	10.2	3.4	10.5	2.8	7.6
Women Ages 16 – 64	82.2	9.5	2.5	5.8	1.7	4.1
Men Ages 16 – 64	87.7	8.2	1.4	2.7	0.8	1.9
Adults Age 65 and over	88.1	7.7	2.3	2.0	0.8	1.2

Table IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race and Age: Selected Years (continued)

		> 0% and	> 25% and	Total	> 50% and	Total
	0%	<= 25%	<= 50%	> 50%	<= 75%	> 75%
	1992
All Persons	83.1	9.3	2.7	4.9	1.4	3.5
Non-Hispanic White	89.0	6.8	1.8	2.4	0.8	1.6
Non-Hispanic Black	59.0	18.3	6.9	15.9	4.1	11.7
Hispanic	66.7	17.6	5.1	10.5	2.5	8.0
Children Ages 0 - 5	71.1	12.1	4.6	12.2	3.0	9.3
Children Ages 6 - 10	76.2	10.7	3.6	9.5	2.6	6.9
Children Ages 11 - 15	76.8	11.9	3.8	7.5	2.1	5.4
Women Ages 16 - 64	83.0	9.2	2.8	5.0	1.3	3.7
Men Ages 16 - 64	88.2	8.2	1.6	1.9	0.7	1.3
Adults Age 65 and over	87.4	8.0	2.5	2.0	1.0	1.1
	1990
All Persons	85.9	7.9	2.0	4.2	1.2	3.0
Non-Hispanic White	91.1	5.7	1.1	2.1	0.6	1.5
Non-Hispanic Black	63.4	16.0	6.0	14.6	5.2	9.3
Hispanic	70.5	16.8	4.4	8.3	2.1	6.2
Children Ages 0 - 5	76.0	11.0	2.8	10.3	2.4	7.9
Children Ages 6 - 10	79.8	9.2	2.6	8.5	2.4	6.0
Children Ages 11 - 15	81.2	9.6	2.8	6.4	1.8	4.5
Women Ages 16 - 64	85.9	7.7	1.8	4.6	1.3	3.2
Men Ages 16 - 64	90.5	6.7	1.3	1.5	0.5	1.0
Adults Age 65 and over	87.9	7.4	2.8	1.9	1.0	0.9

	1987
All Persons	85.1	8.2	2.1	4.7	1.3	3.3
Non-Hispanic White	90.7	5.8	1.3	2.2	0.9	1.3
Non-Hispanic Black	59.1	18.7	6.5	15.7	3.9	11.8
Hispanic	71.7	13.6	3.8	10.9	2.2	8.7
Children Ages 0 - 5	75.5	10.9	3.7	10.0	2.7	7.3
Children Ages 6 - 10	76.8	10.5	2.6	10.1	2.8	7.3
Children Ages 11 - 15	80.2	9.2	2.6	8.0	1.6	6.4
Women Ages 16 - 64	85.6	7.9	1.9	4.6	1.1	3.5
Men Ages 16 - 64	89.9	6.8	1.4	2.0	0.8	1.2
Adults Age 65 and over	86.4	8.6	2.5	2.6	1.4	1.2

Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC, SSI and food stamps. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included under AFDC. Total > 50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their income from these means-tested programs. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

Figure IND 1b. Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps between 1982 and 1991, by Years of Dependency

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1983 - 1992.

Unlike Figure IND 1a, which showed dependency rates for the total population, Figure IND 1b focuses on dependency among welfare recipients, measured over a ten-year time period. Half of all recipients in 1982 were not dependent on welfare in any year over the following decade, in the sense that in no year did they receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps. (SSI receipt is not counted in this particular measure). This was also true for 55 percent of all recipients between 1972 and 1981, as shown in the lower half of Table IND 1b.
About 13 percent of recipients in 1982 were dependent for more than 5 years over the following decade, 15 percent were dependent for 3 to 5 years, and 23 percent were dependent for 1 or 2 years. Dependency is again defined as receiving more than 50 percent of annual income from AFDC and food stamps.
Child recipients were more likely to be dependent than other recipients; only 34 percent of young child recipients in 1982 were not dependent in any year between 1982 and 1991, as shown in Table IND 1b. A slightly higher percentage (39 percent) of child recipients had no years of dependency in the earlier decade. The percentage of young black children who were not dependent—that is, were in families who did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps in any year – increased across the two time periods (from 24 percent to 31 percent). In comparison, the percentage of non-black recipient children who were not dependent decreased substantially across the two time periods (from 50 percent to 37 percent).

Table IND 1b. Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Across Two Ten-Year Time Periods, by Years of Dependency, Race, and Age

Note: The base for the percentages is recipients in a one-year time period, defined as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in the first year (1982 or 1972). Child recipients are defined by age in the first year. This measures years of dependency over the specified ten-year time periods, and does not take into account years of dependency that may have occurred before the initial year (1972 or 1982).

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1973 - 1992.

Figure IND 1c. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 1995

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Whereas the two previous figures show the proportion of individuals with more than 50 percent of total income from means-tested assistance, Figure IND 1c shows the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings, by poverty status.
Those in families with incomes below the poverty level received 42 percent of their total family income from means-tested assistance programs (AFDC, SSI, and food stamps) and 40 percent of their total family income from earnings. In contrast, families with total incomes at least 200 percent above the poverty line received the majority of their income from earnings (85 percent) and less than one percent of their income from means-tested assistance (a percentage so small as to not be visible in Figure IND 1c).
Those living in deep poverty (total family income less than 50 percent of poverty line) relied heavily on income from means-tested assistance (71 percent of total family income). This included assistance from AFDC and SSI (39 percent) and food stamps (33 percent), as shown in Table IND 1c. The percentage of income from earnings for those in deep poverty is about half the percentage for those in poverty (19 percent compared to 40 percent).

Table IND 1c. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status, Race, and Age: 1995

Table IND 1c. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status, Race, and Age: 1995 (continued)

Note: While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included in AFDC income. Other income is non-means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Indicator 2. Dependence Transitions

Figure IND 2. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Nearly four-fifths (79 percent) of all recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1994 also received more than 50 percent of their total income from these same programs in 1995.
Of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from AFDC, food stamps and SSI in 1994, a larger percentage of non-Hispanic whites became “less dependent” in 1995 (received 50 percent or less of their total income from means-tested assistance programs) compared to Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks.
As shown in Table IND 2, a slightly larger percentage of women who received more than half of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1994 remained “dependent” in 1995 compared to the same percentage for men (79 percent compared to 73 percent).

Table IND 2. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race and Age

Percentage of Persons Receiving
Individuals Receiving more than 50% of Income from Assistance in 1994	Total (000's)	No Aid in 1995	Up to 50% in 1995	Over 50% in 1995
All Persons	13,986	2.7	18.8	78.5
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	4,804	3.1	26.2	70.7
Non-Hispanic Black	4,710	2.3	19.2	78.5
Hispanic	3,418	2.9	11.6	85.5
Age Categories
Children Ages 0 – 5	3,185	2.0	18.6	79.4
Children Ages 6 – 10	2,102	0.6	17.8	81.6
Children Ages 11 – 15	1,724	1.6	19.5	78.9
Men Ages 16 – 64	1,866	2.5	18.7	72.6
Women Ages 16 – 64	4,472	7.1	20.4	78.8
Adults Age 65 and over	636	4.6	17.9	77.5

Note: Means-tested assistance is defined as AFDC, food stamps, and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, some transitions were based on twelve-month periods that did not correspond exactly to calendar years.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Indicator 3. Dependence Spell Duration

Figure IND 3. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 3. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Forty-three percent of AFDC spells for individuals in families with no one in the labor force ended within a year.
Over one-quarter (27 percent) of AFDC spells for individuals in families where no one participated in the labor force lasted four months or less.
As shown in Table IND 3, a smaller percentage of AFDC spells to children in families with no labor force participants ended in four months or less compared to their adult counterparts (25 percent compared to 31 percent).
Spells shown in Figure IND 3 are limited to spells of recipients in families without any labor force participation. Spell lengths are shorter in Figure IND 5, which shows spells for all recipients, including those in families with labor force participants. For example, whereas only half (50 percent) of spells shown in Figure IND 3 end in 20 months or less, over two-thirds (69 percent) of all AFDC spells last 20 months or less, as shown in Figure IND 5.

Table IND 3. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race, and Age

	Spells <=4 months	Spells <=12 months	Spells <=20 months	Spells >20 months
All Persons	27.2	43.4	50.3	49.7
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	30.2	40.7	43.0	57.0
Non-Hispanic Black	17.4	45.6	N/A	N/A
Hispanic	33.2	N/A	N/A	N/A
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-15	24.7	41.9	49.1	50.9
Adults Ages 16-64	30.6	45.8	51.9	48.1

Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those spells starting during the 1993 SIPP panel. For certain racial categories, data are not available (N/A) due to insufficient sample size.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Indicator 4. Receipt of Means-tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment

Figure IND 4a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program: 1995

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

In 1995, 46 percent of individuals who received AFDC, 37 percent of individuals who received SSI, and 54 percent of individuals who received food stamps were in families with at least one person in the labor force. The comparable figure for individuals in the general population is 83 percent (as shown in Table WORK 1, in Chapter III).
More than half of those families receiving AFDC with at least one participant in the labor force had no one in the labor force full time. Conversely, a significant majority of SSI and food stamp families with at least one member in the labor force had at least one family member working full time.
As shown in Table IND 4a, among AFDC recipients, a larger percentage of children under age 6 were in families with at least one full-time labor force participant compared to children ages 6 to 15.

Table IND 4a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program, Race, and Age: 1995

		No one in LF	Atleast one in LF No one FT	At least one FT LF participant
AFDC	All Persons	54.1	23.8	22.1
	Non-Hispanic White	52.4	22.1	25.6
	Non-Hispanic Black	53.2	23.6	23.2
	Hispanic	58.4	23.0	18.6
	Children Ages 0 - 5	55.0	21.3	23.7
	Children Ages 6 - 10	59.0	21.1	19.9
	Children Ages 11 - 15	55.6	26.9	17.5
	Women Ages 16 - 64	52.1	24.0	23.9
	Men Ages 16 - 64	41.6	33.9	24.5
	Adults Age 65 and over	51.0	15.3	32.9
SSI	All Persons	62.6	11.3	26.1
	Non-Hispanic White	63.4	10.5	26.1
	Non-Hispanic Black	64.4	13.7	21.9
	Hispanic	60.9	9.5	29.6
	Children Ages 0 - 5	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Children Ages 6 - 10	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Children Ages 11 - 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Women Ages 16 - 64	57.9	17.0	25.1
	Men Ages 16 - 64	56.8	10.1	33.1
	Adults Age 65 and over	73.9	4.2	22.0
FOOD STAMPS	All Persons	46.1	22.7	31.2
	Non-Hispanic White	43.8	20.4	35.8
	Non-Hispanic Black	50.8	23.7	25.5
	Hispanic	44.2	22.6	33.2
	Children Ages 0 - 5	43.8	20.8	35.3
	Children Ages 6 - 10	47.8	22.2	30.0
	Children Ages 11 - 15	46.1	26.1	27.8
	Women Ages 16 - 64	45.9	23.8	30.3
	Men Ages 16 - 64	35.3	26.9	37.8
	Adults Age 65 and over	82.0	4.2	13.7

Note: Full-time labor force participants are defined as those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Data on receipt of SSI for young children are not available (N/A). Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Figure IND 4b. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants: Selected Years

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

In 1995, 22 percent of all AFDC recipients lived in families with at least one full-time labor force participant – a higher percentage than at any other point in the previous nine years.
In all years shown above, more than half of all AFDC recipients lived in families where no one participated in the labor force. This percentage has varied between 58 percent and 54 percent, as shown in Table IND 4b.
About one-fourth of AFDC recipients lived in families with a labor force participant who worked less than full-time. This percentage was lower in 1995 (24 percent) than in 1992 (28 percent), suggesting that some of the increase in full-time work among AFDC recipients represents a shift from part-time to full-time work.

Table IND 4b. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants: Selected Years

	No one In LF	At least one in LF No one FT	At least one FT LF Participant
1987	55.3	28.1	16.6
1988	58.3	28.1	16.6
1990	58.3	23.3	18.4
1991	57.8	23.7	18.5
1992	54.2	28.1	17.7
1993	56.5	25.7	17.8
1994	54.5	25.3	20.2
1995	54.1	23.8	22.1

Note: Full-time labor force participants are defined as those who usually work 35 or more hours per week. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

Indicator 5. Program Spell Duration

Figure IND 5. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 Panel.

Short spells lasting 4 months or less accounted for 31 percent of AFDC spells, 24 percent of SSI spells, and 33 percent of food stamp spells.
Over one-half of all AFDC and food stamp spells lasted one year or less (56 percent and 60 percent, respectively). In contrast, only 32 percent of SSI spells ended within one year. The percentage of SSI spells that lasted more than 20 months is twice the percentage of AFDC and food stamp spells that lasted this long (see Table IND 5).
As shown in Table IND 5, for AFDC spells, a larger percentage of short spells (lasting 4 months or less) and a smaller percentage of long spells (lasting more than 20 months) occurred among non-Hispanic whites compared to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.
As further shown in Table IND 5, a larger percentage of AFDC and food stamp spells among adults ages 16 to 64 ended within 4 months compared to spells among children.
Short spells are less common among recipients in families without labor force participants, as shown previously in Figure and Table IND 3.

Table IND 5. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race, and Age

		Spells <=4 months	Spells <=12 months	Spells <=20 months	Spells >20 months
AFDC	All Recipients	30.7	56.1	68.6	31.4
	Racial Categories
	Non-Hispanic White	35.6	62.2	72.3	27.7
	Non-Hispanic Black	24.6	52.3	66.7	33.3
	Hispanic	30.8	52.5	63.4	36.6
	Age Categories
	Children Ages 0 - 15	28.1	53.6	65.6	34.4
	Adults Ages 16 - 64	33.5	59.0	72.2	27.8
SSI	All Recipients	24.0	31.9	36.6	63.4
	Racial Categories
	Non-Hispanic White	27.2	34.6	40.8	59.2
	Non-Hispanic Black	20.5	26.2	30.0	70.0
	Hispanic	20.0	32.2	NA	NA
	Age Categories
	Adults Ages 16 - 64	26.8	34.6	39.7	60.3
FOODSTAMPS	All Recipients	33.1	59.9	70.0	30.0
	Racial Categories
	Non-Hispanic White	34.3	62.1	71.5	28.5
	Non-Hispanic Black	28.4	53.4	64.9	35.1
	Hispanic	35.4	64.0	71.1	28.9
	Age Categories
	Children Ages 0 - 15	29.8	56.5	67.0	33.0
	Adults Ages 16 - 64	35.9	63.0	72.8	27.2

Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those starting during the 1993 SIPP Panel. For certain age and racial categories, data are not available (N/A) because of insufficient sample size. Data on SSI recipiency for children are not available (N/A).

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 Panel.

Indicator 6. Long-term Receipt

Figure IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients in 1982, by Years of Receipt: 1982-91

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1983 - 1992

Among all AFDC recipients in 1982, almost half (47 percent) received assistance for only one or two years between 1982 and 1991. Over one quarter (28 percent) received AFDC and/or food stamps for 3 to 5 years, and about one quarter (26 percent) received AFDC for more than 5 years. Similar patterns were evident for recipients in 1972, as can be seen in the lower half of Table IND 6.
As shown in Table IND 6, compared to non-black recipients, a smaller percentage of black recipients received AFDC for only 1 to 2 years while a larger percentage received benefits for more than 5 years in both ten-year time periods.
As further shown in Table IND 6, a smaller percentage of child recipients experienced shortterm receipt and a larger percentage experienced longer-term receipt in both time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients.
Whereas over half (53 percent) of recipients received at least some AFDC for three or more years between 1982 and 1991 (as shown in Figure IND 6), only 28 percent of recipients received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps for three or more years over the same time period (as previously shown in Figure IND 1b).

Table IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients, by Years of Receipt, Race, and Age

Between 1982 and 1991:
All Recipients
	All Recipients	Black	Non-Black
1 - 2 Years	47	37	53
3 - 5 Years	28	27	28
6 - 8 Years	15	19	12
9 - 10 Years	11	17	6
Children 0 - 5 in 1982
	All Child Recipients	Black Children	Non-Black Children
1 - 2 Years	34	28	39
3 - 5 Years	29	28	30
6 - 8 Years	17	16	19
9 - 10 Years	20	29	13
Between 1972 and 1981:
All Recipients
	All Recipients	Black	Non-Black
1 - 2 Years	49	32	59
3 - 5 Years	28	34	25
6 - 8 Years	13	19	9
9 - 10 Years	11	15	8
Children 0 - 5 in 1972
	All Child Recipients	Black Children	Non-Black Children
1 - 2 Years	37	24	46
3 - 5 Years	29	31	27
6 - 8 Years	15	23	10
9 - 10 Years	19	23	17

Note: The base for percentages is recipients in a one-year time period, defined as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in the first year (1982 or 1972). Child recipients are defined by age in the first year. This measures years of receipt over the specified ten-year time periods, and does not take into account years of receipt that may have occurred before the initial year (1972 or 1982).

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1973 - 1992.

Indicator 7. Multiple Program Receipt

Figure IND 7. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from One, Two or Three Programs (AFDC, Food Stamps, SSI), by Age: 1995

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

The 10.7 percent of the population who received AFDC, food stamp, or SSI benefits in an average month include 5.5 percent who got benefits from one of the programs, 5.0 percent who received two types of assistance, and 0.2 percent with benefits from all three programs.
As shown in Table IND 7a, the most common patterns of benefit receipt are receipt of both food stamps and AFDC (4.3 percent) and receipt of food stamp benefits only (3.9 percent). The least common are receiving AFDC and SSI or participating in all three programs.
Children have higher recipiency rates than the population as a whole. Over one-fifth of children under 6, for example, receive AFDC, food stamps, or SSI, with most of these children (13 percent) receiving a combined package of AFDC and food stamp benefits, as shown in Table IND 7a. Most of the remaining children (8 percent) receive food stamps only.
There has been a slight upward trend in receipt of SSI over time, either alone, or in combination with food stamps, as shown in Table IND 7b.

Table IND 7a. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from One, Two or Three Programs (AFDC, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race and Age: 1995.

	Any Receipt	One Program Only			Two Programs			All Three Programs
	AFDC, FS OR SSI	AFDC	FS	SSI	AFDC & FS	AFDC & SSI	FS & SSI	AFDC, FS & SSI
All Persons	10.7	0.5	3.9	1.1	4.3	N/A	0.7	0.2
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	7.9	0.3	3.3	0.9	2.7	N/A	0.5	0.1
Non-Hispanic Black	27.2	1.4	8.1	2.5	12.8	0.1	1.7	0.6
Hispanic	23.4	1.0	8.9	1.4	10.6	N/A	1.1	0.4
Age Categories
Children Ages 0 - 5	21.4	1.1	7.7	0.0	12.5	N/A	N/A	N/A
Children Ages 6 - 10	21.1	1.5	7.4	0.0	12.2	N/A	N/A	N/A
Children Ages 11 - 15	16.5	0.8	6.4	0.0	9.3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Women Ages 16 - 64	10.5	0.5	3.5	1.3	3.8	N/A	0.9	0.5
Men Ages 16 - 64	5.3	0.1	2.7	1.1	0.9	N/A	0.4	N/A
Adults Age 65 and over	6.9	0.1	1.6	3.0	N/A	N/A	2.2	N/A

See below for notes and source.

Table IND 7b. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from One, Two or Three Programs (AFDC, Food Stamps, SSI): Selected Years

	Any Receipt	One Program Only			Two Programs			All Three Programs
	AFDC, FS, OR SSI	AFDC	FS	SSI	AFDC & FS	AFDC & SSI	FS & SSI	AFDC, FS, & SSI
1987	8.7	0.5	3.5	1.0	3.2	N/A	0.5	0.1
1988	8.3	0.3	3.3	1.0	3.1	N/A	0.5	0.1
1990	8.3	0.4	3.0	1.0	3.4	N/A	0.5	0.1
1991	8.9	0.4	3.3	1.0	3.7	N/A	0.5	0.1
1992	10.0	0.3	3.8	1.1	4.0	N/A	0.6	0.1
1993	11.4	0.4	4.4	1.1	4.8	N/A	0.7	0.2
1994	11.2	0.4	4.3	1.1	4.6	N/A	0.7	0.2
1995	10.7	0.5	3.9	1.1	4.3	N/A	0.7	0.2

Note: Categories are mutually exclusive. SSI receipt based on individual receipt; AFDC and food stamp receipt based on family receipt. Although individuals may not receive both AFDC and SSI, an SSI recipient may be in a family where other members receive AFDC Benefits. For certain categories, data are not available (N/A) because of insufficient sample size and because SSI recipiency data are not available for children. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, 1995 estimates are based on a weighting adjustment to account for those who were not interviewed for the entire year. Percentage receiving assistance from any one program in average month (shown here) is lower than percentage receiving any assistance over course of year (shown in Table SUM 1 in Chapter I).

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990, 1992, and 1993 panels.

Indicator 8. Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells

Table IND 8a. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Beginnings Associated with Specific Events: Selected Periods

	Spell Began 1973 - 1979	Spell Began 1980 - 1985	Spell Began 1986 - 1991
First birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother	27.9	20.9	22.2
First birth to a married and/or cohabiting mother	13.3	17.4	11.3
Second (or higher order) birth	19.9	18.2	15.2
Divorce/separation	19.7	28.1	17.3
Mother's work hours decreased by >500 hours per year	26.3	18.8	26.2
Other adults' work hours decreased by >500 hours, but no change in family structure	34.8	27.9	21.6
Other adults' work hours decreased by >500 hours, and a change in family structure	4.7	7.9	11.4
Householder acquired work limitation	18.1	15.6	23.5
Other transfer income dropped by >$1,000 (in 1996$)	4.5	6.5	4.1
Changed state of residence	4.5	10.6	5.4

Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1974–1992.

Between 1986 and 1991, the most common events associated with the beginnings of a first AFDC spell were work-related: a decrease in mother’s work hours (26 percent), a decrease in work hours of another adult (22 percent), and acquisition of a work limitation (24 percent).
The percentage of first AFDC episode beginnings associated with a householder acquiring a work limitation was higher for spells that began between 1986 and 1991 (24 percent) than for spells that began between 1973 and 1979 (16 percent) or 1980 to 1985 (18 percent).
Between 1973 and 1979, first births to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother were associated with 28 percent of first AFDC episodes. In contrast, such births were associated with 21 percent of first spells beginning between 1980 and 1985, and 22 percent of spells beginning between 1986 and 1991.

Table IND 8b. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Endings Associated with Specific Events: Selected Periods

	Spell Ended 1973 – 1979	Spell Ended 1980 – 1985	Spell Ended 1986 – 1991
Mother married or acquired cohabitor	16.1	17.1	21.7
Children under 18 no longer present	4.4	4.1	4.8
Mother's work hours increased by more than 500 hours per year	15.4	25.0	27.1
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure	21.8	16.8	16.7
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure	6.5	10.3	5.8
Householder no longer reports work limitation	13.0	19.2	15.8
Other transfer income increased by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	5.0	5.5	5.8
Changed state of residence	5.9	11.0	5.9

Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a selfreported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1974 - 1992.

During the 1986 to 1991 time period, over one-fourth (27 percent) of first AFDC spell endings were associated with increases in mother’s work hours. The corresponding percentage was smaller for spells ending between 1973 and 1979 (15 percent).
In the 1973 - 1979 period, a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in work hours for other adults (22 percent) as compared to mothers (15 percent). In the more recent time period (1986 - 1991), a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in mother’s work hours (27 percent) compared to other adults (17 percent).

Indicator 9. Rates of Receipt of Means-tested Assistance

Figure IND 9a. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-98

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Although the SIPP data needed to examine welfare dependency are not yet available past 1995, administrative data for AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI provide measures of recipiency for each of these three programs through 1998, as shown in Figures IND 9a, IND 9b, and IND 9c. Additional administrative data are shown in Appendix A.
Only 3.2 percent of the population received TANF in 1998, the lowest AFDC/TANF recipiency rate in the 28 years shown in Figure IND 9a.
AFDC/TANF recipiency rates are much higher for children than for adults, with the child recipiency rates showing more pronounced changes over time. Child recipiency rates increased substantially between 1970 and 1976, and then remained relatively stable for the next 13 years (i.e. through 1989), before turning upward in the early 1990s and then declining sharply. Between 1993 and 1998, the child recipiency rate declined from 14.1 to 8.7 percent, a decline of 5 percentage points.

Table IND 9a. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970- 98

	Total Recipients ¹		Adult Recipients		Child Recipients ²
Fiscal Year	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
1970..............	7,188	3.5	1,863	1.4	5,325	7.6
1971..............	9,281	4.5	2,516	1.8	6,765	9.7
1972..............	10,345	4.9	2,848	2.0	7,497	10.8
1973..............	10,760	5.1	2,984	2.1	7,776	11.3
1974..............	10,591	5.0	2,935	2.0	7,656	11.3
1975..............	10,854	5.0	3,078	2.1	7,776	11.6
1976..............	11,171	5.1	3,271	2.2	7,900	11.9
1977..............	10,933	5.0	3,230	2.1	7,703	11.8
1978..............	10,485	4.7	3,128	2.0	7,357	11.4
1979..............	10,146	4.5	3,071	1.9	7,075	11.0
1980..............	10,422	4.6	3,226	2.0	7,196	11.3
1981..............	10,979	4.8	3,491	2.1	7,488	11.8
1982..............	10,233	4.4	3,395	2.0	6,838	10.9
1983..............	10,467	4.5	3,548	2.1	6,919	11.1
1984..............	10,677	4.5	3,652	2.1	7,025	11.2
1985..............	10,630	4.5	3,589	2.0	7,041	11.2
1986..............	10,810	4.5	3,637	2.1	7,173	11.4
1987..............	10,878	4.5	3,624	2.0	7,254	11.5
1988..............	10,734	4.4	3,536	2.0	7,198	11.4
1989..............	10,741	4.4	3,503	1.9	7,238	11.4
1990..............	11,263	4.5	3,643	2.0	7,620	11.9
1991..............	12,391	4.9	4,016	2.1	8,375	12.9
1992..............	13,423	5.3	4,336	2.3	9,087	13.7
1993..............	13,943	5.4	4,519	2.4	9,424	14.1
1994..............	14,033	5.4	4,554	2.4	9,479	14.0
1995..............	13,479	5.1	4,322	2.2	9,157	13.4
1996..............	12,476	4.7	3,920	2.0	8,556	12.4
1997³............	10,779	4.0	3,106 ⁴	1.6	7,673 ⁴	11.0
1998..............	8,633	3.2	2,573 ⁵	1.3	6,060 ⁵	8.7

Note: See Appendix A, Tables A-5, A-12, and A-13, for more detailed data on recipiency rates.
¹ Does not include the territories.
² Includes a small number of dependents 18 and older who are students.
³ The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC Program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program.
⁴ Average number of adults and children based on the first three quarters of 1997 only; data on number of adults and children under TANF not currently available.
⁵The average number of adults and children in 1998 is estimated by multiplying the ratio of total children to total recipients (from the Quality Control data estimates) times the total number of recipients in 1998 from the administrative data records.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 9b. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-98

Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 1998, and earlier reports and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

The food stamp recipiency rate, like the AFDC/TANF recipiency rate shown previously in Figure IND 9a, fell sharply in recent years, from a high of 10.5 in 1993 and 1994, to only 7.3 percent in 1998. The recipiency rate was lower in 1998 than at any other point since 1979.
In all years between 1980 and 1998, the percentage of all children who received food stamps was between two and one-half to three times that for all adults 18 to 59.
Similar trends – largely reflecting changes in the rate of unemployment and programmatic changes – existed for each age group: children, adults aged 18 to 59 and adults aged 60 and over. The percentages of individuals receiving food stamps within all age groups declined from 1984 through 1988, rose in the early 1990s, peaked in 1994, and fell sharply between 1994 and 1998.

Table IND 9b. Number and Percentage of the Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-98

	Total Recipients ¹		Adult Recipients 60 & older		Adult Recipients 18 to 9		Child Recipients under 18
Fiscal Year	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number(thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
1975..............	17,217	8.0	–	–	–	–	–	–
1976..............	16,733	7.7	–	–	–	–	–	–
1977..............	15,579	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–
1978..............	14,503	6.5	–	–	–	–	–	–
1979..............	15,976	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–
1980..............	19,253	8.5	1,741	4.9	7,186	5.6	9,876	15.5
1981..............	20,654	9.0	1,845	5.0	7,811	6.0	9,803	15.5
1982..............	20,446	8.8	1,641	4.4	7,838	6.0	9,591	15.3
1983..............	21,667	9.3	1,654	4.4	8,960	6.7	10,910	17.4
1984..............	20,796	8.8	1,758	4.5	8,521	6.3	10,492	16.8
1985..............	19,847	8.3	1,783	4.5	8,258	6.1	9,906	15.8
1986..............	19,381	8.1	1,631	4.1	7,895	5.7	9,844	15.7
1987..............	19,072	7.9	1,589	3.9	7,684	5.5	9,771	15.5
1988..............	18,613	7.6	1,500	3.7	7,506	5.3	9,351	14.8
1989..............	18,778	7.6	1,582	3.8	7,560	5.3	9,429	14.9
1990..............	20,038	8.0	1,511	3.6	8,084	5.6	10,127	15.8
1991..............	22,599	9.0	1,593	3.8	9,190	6.4	11,952	18.4
1992..............	25,369	9.9	1,687	3.9	10,550	7.2	13,349	20.2
1993..............	26,952	10.5	1,876	4.4	11,214	7.6	14,196	21.2
1994..............	27,469	10.6	1,952	4.5	11,539	7.7	14,391	21.2
1995..............	26,575	10.1	1,896	4.3	10,962	7.3	13,860	20.2
1996..............	25,533	9.6	1,892	4.3	10,766	7.1	12,992	18.8
1997..............	22,858	8.5	1,834	4.1	9,385	6.1	11,871	17.1
1998..............	19,788	7.3	1,637	3.7	7,772	5.0	10,546	15.1

Note: See Appendix A, Tables A-14 and A-19 for more detailed data on recipiency rates.
¹ Does not include the territories.
Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 1998, and earlier reports and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 9c. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1974-98

Note: Recipients are reported as of December in each year.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html) and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Unlike the recipiency rates for AFDC/TANF and food stamps, which are strongly influenced by the economy and welfare reform, recipiency rates for SSI show less variation. The proportion of the total population that receives SSI has risen slightly over time, from about 2 percent in 1975 to 2.4 percent in 1998.
Elderly adults (aged 65 and older) have much higher recipiency rates than any other age group. The gap has narrowed, however, as the percentage of adults aged 65 and older has fallen from 11 percent (in 1974) to 6 percent (in 1998).
The proportion of children receiving SSI has increased gradually between 1975 and 1990, rising from 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent. Since then it has grown more rapidly, reaching 1.5 percent in 1996. The child recipiency rate fell to 1.3 percent in 1997 and remained at that level through 1998.

Table IND 9c. Number and Percentage of the Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-98

	Total Recipients		Adult Recipients 65 & older		Adult Recipients 18 to 64		Child Recipients¹ under 18
Date	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
Dec '75	4,314	2.0	2,508	10.9	1,678	1.3	128	0.2
Dec '76	4,236	1.9	2,397	10.2	1,686	1.3	153	0.2
Dec '77	4,238	1.9	2,353	9.7	1,709	1.3	175	0.3
Dec '78	4,217	1.9	2,304	9.3	1,716	1.3	197	0.3
Dec '79	4,150	1.8	2,246	8.8	1,692	1.2	212	0.3
Dec '80	4,142	1.8	2,221	8.6	1,693	1.2	229	0.4
Dec '81	4,019	1.7	2,121	8.0	1,668	1.2	230	0.4
Dec '82	3,858	1.7	2,011	7.4	1,618	1.1	229	0.4
Dec '83	3,901	1.7	2,003	7.3	1,662	1.1	236	0.4
Dec '84	4,029	1.7	2,037	7.2	1,743	1.2	249	0.4
Dec '85	4,138	1.7	2,031	7.1	1,841	1.2	265	0.4
Dec '86	4,269	1.8	2,018	6.9	1,972	1.3	280	0.4
Dec '87	4,385	1.8	2,015	6.7	2,081	1.4	289	0.5
Dec '88	4,464	1.8	2,006	6.6	2,168	1.4	290	0.5
Dec '89	4,593	1.9	2,026	6.5	2,271	1.5	296	0.5
Dec '90	4,817	1.9	2,059	6.5	2,418	1.6	340	0.5
Dec '91	5,118	2.0	2,080	6.5	2,600	1.7	439	0.7
Dec '92	5,566	2.2	2,100	6.5	2,843	1.8	624	0.9
Dec '93	5,984	2.3	2,113	6.4	3,101	2.0	771	1.1
Dec '94	6,296	2.4	2,119	6.3	3,284	2.1	893	1.3
Dec '95	6,514	2.5	2,115	6.3	3,425	2.1	974	1.4
Dec '96	6,630	2.5	2,110	6.2	3,503	2.1	1,016	1.5
Dec '97	6,495	2.4	2,054	6.0	3,511	2.1	930	1.3
Dec '98	6,566	2.4	2,033	5.9	3,605	2.2	928	1.3

Note: December population figures used as the denominators are obtained by averaging the Census Bureau's July 1 population estimate for the current and the following year. See Appendix, Tables A-23, A-25, and A-26.
¹ Includes a small number of dependents 18 and older who are students.
Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html) and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Indicator 10. Rates of Participation in Means-tested Assistance Programs

Figure IND 10. Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs: Selected Years

Sources: AFDC and SSI participation rates are from the Urban Institute TRIM microsimulation model, while food stamp participation rates are from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model. See Tables IND 10a, IND 10b, and IND 10c for details.

Whereas Indicator 9 examined participants as a percentage of the total population (recipiency rates), this Indicator examines participating families or households as a percentage of the estimated eligible population (participation rates, also known as “take up” rates).
Participation rates for both AFDC/TANF and the Food Stamp program fell significantly between 1995 and 1997. In contrast, SSI participation rates have risen slightly over this time period.
Only 69 percent of the families estimated as eligible for AFDC/TANF actually enrolled and received benefits in an average month in 1997. This was significantly lower than traditional participation rates, which ranged from 77 to 86 percent between 1981 and 1996.
The SSI participation rate in 1997 was slightly higher than the AFDC rate – 71 percent – while the food stamp participation rate was lower – 56 percent.

Table IND 10a. Number and Percentage of Eligible Families Participating in AFDC/TANF: Selected Years

Calendar Year	Eligible Families (in millions)	Participating Families (in millions)	Participation Rate (percent)
1981............................	4.8	3.9	80
1983............................	4.7	3.7	78
1985............................	4.7	3.7	79
1987............................	4.9	3.8	77
1988............................	4.8	3.7	78
1989............................	4.5	3.8	84
1990............................	4.8	4.0	82
1992............................	5.6	4.8	86
1993............................	6.1	5.0	82
1994 ............................	6.0	5.0	83
1995............................	5.8	4.9	84
1996............................	5.8	4.6	79
1997............................	5.7	4.0	69

Notes: Eligible families estimated by an Urban Institute model (TRIM) which uses CPS data to simulate AFDC/TANF eligibility for an average month, by calendar year. Caseload data are reported by calendar year and adjusted to exclude the territories and pregnant women with no other children because these cases are not identified in the TRIM-based eligibility estimates. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, the model was revised in 1997 to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. This change has the effect of increasing the 1997 participation rates relative to rates for prior years.

Source: DHHS, Administration for Children and Families caseload tabulations and unpublished data from the Urban Institute TRIM microsimulation model.

There was little change in the size of the eligible population for AFDC/TANF between 1995 and 1997, according to estimates shown in Table IND 10a. Thus the large caseload declines over that period were largely a result of declining participation or “take up” rates among the eligible populations.

Table IND 10b. Number and Percentage of Eligible Households Participating in the Food Stamp Program: Selected Years

Date	Eligible Households (in millions)	Participating Households (in millions)	Participation Rate (percent)
September 76..................	16.3	5.3	33
February 78....................	14.0	5.3	38
August 80.......................	14.0	7.4	52
August 82.......................	14.5	7.5	51
August 84.......................	14.2	7.3	52
August 86.......................	15.3	7.1	47
August 88.......................	14.9	7.0	47
August 90.......................	14.5	8.0	55
August 91.......................	15.6	9.2	59
August 92.......................	16.7	10.2	62
August 93.......................	17.0	10.9	64
August 94 (o)...................	17.0	11.0	65
August 94 (r) ...................	15.9	10.7	67
August 95.......................	15.5	10.4	67
August 96.......................	15.9	10.1	63
September 97...................	15.0	8.5	56

Note: Eligible households estimated from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model that uses CPS data to simulate the Food Stamp Program. Caseload data are from USDA, FNS program operations caseload data. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, the model was revised in 1994 to produce more accurate (and lower) estimates of eligible households. The original 1994 estimate and estimates for previous years show higher estimates of eligibles and lower participation rates relative to the revised estimate for 1994 and estimates for subsequent years.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: Focus on September 1997.

The proportion of eligible households who participated in the Food Stamp program fell from 63 percent in 1996 to 56 percent in 1997, a drop of 7 percentage points. This is the second year in a row that there has been a decline in Food Stamp participation rates.
In addition, there was a decline in the number of households eligible for the Food Stamp program, from close to 16 million in August 1994, to 15 million in September 1997. This decline was driven by new eligibility restrictions on aliens and able-bodied adults without dependent children, growth in the economy, changes in the TANF program, and other factors.
The significant drop in participating households, from 10.1 million households in August 1996 to 8.5 million households in September 1997, reflects the combined effect of a decline in the eligible population and lower participation rates.

Table IND 10c. Percentage of Eligible Adult Units Participating in the SSI Program, by Type: 1993-97

Date	All Adult Units	One-Person Units		Married-Couple Units
Date	All Adult Units	Aged	Disabled	Married-Couple Units
1993..............	62.0	57.0	71.0	37.0
1994..............	65.0	58.4	73.0	43.9
1995..............	69.1	64.9	74.0	52.2
1996..............	66.6	60.4	73.5	46.7
1997..............	71.1	62.7	79.4	49.1

Notes: Participation rates estimated by an Urban Institute model (TRIM) which uses CPS data to simulate SSI eligibility for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. In particular, the model was revised in 1997 to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. Thus the increased participation rate in 1997 is partly due to a revision in estimating methodology. Also note that the figure for married-couple units is based on very small sample sizes–married couple units were only about 7 percent of the adults units in the average month of 1997.

Source: Unpublished data from the Urban Institute TRIM microsimulation model.

In contrast to the declining participation rates for the AFDC/TANF and Food Stamp programs, the participation rate for adult units in the SSI Program has been increasing, from 62 percent in 1993, to 71 percent in 1997. Note, however, that some of the apparent growth between 1996 and 1997 may be due to a revision in estimating methodology, as noted above.
· In 1997, as in past years, disabled adults in one-person units had a higher participation rate (79 percent) than both aged adults in one-person units (63 percent) and adults in marriedcouple units (49 percent).

Chapter III. Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt

The Welfare Indicators Act challenges the Department of Health and Human Services to identify and set forth not only indicators of welfare dependence and welfare duration, but also predictors and causes of welfare receipt. Up to this point, welfare research has not established clear and definitive causes of welfare dependence. However, research has identified a number of risk factors associated with welfare utilization. For purposes of this report, the terms “predictors” and “risk factors” are used somewhat interchangeably, although the differences between them are acknowledged.

Where the Advisory Board recommended narrowing the focus of dependence indicators, it recommended an expansive view toward predictors and risk factors. The first two annual reports included a set of 30 different predictors and risk factors; of these, 20 are included in the current volume. As discussed in Chapter I, the reduction in the length of the report responds to Congressional intent and reduces overlap with other publications issued by the Department. Even with this reduction, the range of possible predictors is extremely wide, and until they are measured and analyzed over time as the PRWORA changes are implemented, their value will not be known. Some of the “predictors” included in this chapter may turn out to be simply correlates of welfare receipt, some may have a causal relationship, some may be consequences, and some may have predictive value.

For purposes of this report, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter are grouped into three categories: economic security risk factors, employment-related risk factors, and risk factors associated with non-marital childbearing.

Economic Security Risk Factors (ECON).

The first group includes six measures associated with economic security. This group encompasses three measures of poverty, as well as measures of child support receipt, food insecurity, and lack of health insurance. The tables and figures illustrating measures of economic security are labeled with the prefix ECON throughout this chapter.

Poverty measures are important predictors of dependence, because families with fewer economic resources are more likely to be dependent on means-tested assistance. In addition, poverty and other measures of deprivation, such as food insecurity, are important to assess in conjunction with the measures of dependence outlined in Chapter II. Reductions in caseloads and dependence can reduce poverty, to the extent that such reductions are associated with greater work activity and higher economic resources for former welfare families. However, reductions in welfare caseloads can increase poverty and other deprivation measures, to the extent that former welfare families are left with fewer economic resources.

Three aspects of poverty are examined in this chapter: overall poverty rates (ECON 1); the length of poverty episodes or spells (ECON 2); and the cumulative time spent in poverty over a decade (ECON 3). All three are measured using the official poverty rate, which counts all cash income, but does not take into account the value of non-cash benefits, such as food stamps, or the effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit or other taxes. Some more comprehensive measures of poverty were shown in Chapter I (see Tables SUM 4 and SUM 5). Further work on analyzing poverty trends under alternative poverty measures is under way, and next year’s report may include revised measures of poverty, following those recommended by the National Academy of Sciences.

This chapter also includes data on child support payments (ECON 4), which can play an important role in reducing dependence on government assistance and thus serve as a predictor of dependence. Household food insecurity (ECON 5) is an important measure of deprivation that, although correlated with general income poverty, provides an alternative measure of tracking the incidence of material hardship and need, and how it may change over time. Finally, health insurance (ECON 6) is both tied to the income level of the family, and may be a precursor to future health problems among both adults and children.

Economic Security Risk Factor 1. Poverty Rates

Figure ECON 1a. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age: 1959-98

Figure ECON 1a. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age: 1959-98

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-207 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

The percentage of persons living in poverty has continued to decline since 1993, when the poverty rate for all persons was at a ten-year high of just over 15 percent. In 1998, the overall poverty rate was just under 13 percent, the lowest level since 1989.
While the poverty rate for children has declined along with the overall rate in the past several years, children, particularly young children, continue to have higher poverty rates than the overall population. For example, in 1998, the poverty rate for related children ages 0 to 5 was 21 percent, compared to 13 percent for the overall population.
The poverty rate for blacks declined 7 percentage points between 1992 and 1998, from 33 percent to 26 percent, as shown in Table ECON 1a. Though at an historic low, the poverty rate for blacks remains 16 percentage points above the rate for whites. The poverty rate among Hispanics has also declined over this time period; in 1998, the Hispanic poverty rate was just about equal to that of blacks.
The poverty rate for the elderly reached an historic low of 10.5 percent in 1995 and has remained at essentially that level since then.

Table ECON 1a. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin: Selected Years

	Related Children		All Persons						Hispanic
	Ages 0 - 5	Ages 6 - 17	Total	Under 18 ¹	18 to 64	65 & over	White	Black	Origin ²
1959	N/A	N/A	22.4	27.3	17.0	35.2	18.1	55.1	N/A
1963	N/A	N/A	19.5	23.1	N/A	N/A	15.3	N/A	N/A
1966	N/A	N/A	14.7	17.6	10.5	28.5	11.3	41.8	N/A
1969	15.3	13.1	12.1	14.0	8.7	25.3	9.5	32.2	N/A
1973	15.7	13.6	11.1	14.4	8.3	16.3	8.4	31.4	21.9
1976	17.7	15.1	11.8	16.0	9.0	15.0	9.1	31.1	24.7
1979	17.9	15.1	11.7	16.4	8.9	15.2	9.0	31.0	21.8
1980	20.3	16.8	13.0	18.3	10.1	15.7	10.2	32.5	25.7
1981	22.0	18.4	14.0	20.0	11.1	15.3	11.1	34.2	26.5
1982	23.3	20.4	15.0	21.9	12.0	14.6	12.0	35.6	29.9
1983	24.6	20.4	15.2	22.3	12.4	13.8	12.1	35.7	28.0
1984	23.4	19.7	14.4	21.5	11.7	12.4	11.5	33.8	28.4
1985	22.6	18.8	14.0	20.7	11.3	12.6	11.4	31.3	29.0
1986	21.6	18.8	13.6	20.5	10.8	12.4	11.0	31.1	27.3
1987	22.3	18.9	13.4	20.3	10.6	12.5	10.4	32.4	28.0
1988	21.8	17.5	13.0	19.5	10.5	12.0	10.1	31.3	26.7
1989	21.9	17.4	12.8	19.6	10.2	11.4	10.0	30.7	26.2
1990	23.0	18.2	13.5	20.6	10.7	12.2	10.7	31.9	28.1
1991	24.0	19.5	14.2	21.8	11.4	12.4	11.3	32.7	28.7
1992	25.7	19.4	14.8	22.3	11.9	12.9	11.9	33.4	29.6
1993	25.6	20.0	15.1	22.7	12.4	12.2	12.2	33.1	30.6
1994	24.5	19.5	14.5	21.8	11.9	11.7	11.7	30.6	30.7
1995	23.7	18.3	13.8	20.8	11.4	10.5	11.2	29.3	30.3
1996	22.7	18.3	13.7	20.5	11.4	10.8	11.2	28.4	29.4
1997	21.6	18.0	13.3	19.9	10.9	10.5	11.0	26.5	27.1
1998	20.6	17.1	12.7	18.9	10.5	10.5	10.5	26.1	25.6

¹All persons under 18 include related children (own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption), unrelated individuals under 18 (persons who are not living with any relatives), and householders or spouses under age 18.²Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-207 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html. 

Figure ECON 1b. Percentage of Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty Level: 1975-98

Figure ECON 1b. Percentage of Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty Level: 1975-98

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-207 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

Between 1993 and 1998, the percentage of the population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty level decreased by one percentage point (from 6.2 percent in 1993 to 5.1 percent in 1998).
In general, the percentage of the population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty threshold has risen and fallen in a pattern that reflects to some degree the trend in the overall poverty rate. For example, the percentage of people below 50 percent of poverty rose between 1976 and 1983, then after falling slightly, rose to a second peak in 1993. The overall poverty rate – the percentage of people below 100 percent of poverty – also peaked in 1983 and 1993 in a somewhat similar pattern, although with more pronounced peaks and valleys.
Over the past two decades, however, there has been an overall increase in the proportion of the poverty population that falls below 50 percent of the poverty threshold. From a low of 28 percent of the poverty population in 1976, the population below 50 percent of the poverty threshold rose to nearly 41 percent by 1992. In 1998, 40 percent of poor persons experienced “deep poverty,” that is, had incomes that fell below 50 percent of the poverty level.
Not only the poverty rate, but also the total number of poor people fell in 1998, as shown in Table ECON 1b. In 1998, there were 34.5 million people with family incomes below 100 percent of the poverty threshold, 5 million fewer than the poverty population in 1959.

Table ECON 1b. Number and Percentage of Population Below 50, 75, 100, and 125 Percent of Poverty Threshold: Selected Years

in 000’s	Total	Below 50 percent		Below 75 percent		Below 100 percent		Below 125 percent
	Population	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent
1959	176,600	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	39,500	22.4	54,900	31.1
1961	181,300	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	39,600	21.9	54,300	30.0
1963	187,300	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	36,400	19.5	50,800	27.1
1965	191,400	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	33,200	17.3	46,200	24.1
1967	195,700	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	27,800	14.2	39,200	20.0
1969	199,500	9,600 ¹	4.8 ¹	16,400 ¹	8.2 ¹	24,100	12.1	34,700	17.4
1971	204,600	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	25,600	12.5	36,500	17.8
1973	208,500	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	23,000	11.1	32,800	15.8
1975	210,900	7,700	3.7	15,400	7.3	25,900	12.3	37,100	17.6
1976	212,300	7,000	3.3	14,900	7.0	25,000	11.8	35,500	16.7
1977	213,900	7,500	3.5	15,000	7.0	24,700	11.6	35,700	16.7
1978	215,700	7,700	3.6	14,900	6.9	24,500	11.4	34,100	15.8
1979	222,900	8,600	3.8	16,300	7.3	26,100	11.7	36,600	16.4
1980	225,000	9,800	4.4	18,700	8.3	29,300	13.0	40,700	18.1
1981	227,200	11,200	4.9	20,700	9.1	31,800	14.0	43,800	19.3
1982	229,400	12,800	5.6	23,200	10.1	34,400	15.0	46,600	20.3
1983	231,700	13,600	5.9	23,600	10.2	35,300	15.2	47,000	20.3
1984	233,800	12,800	5.5	22,700	9.7	33,700	14.4	45,400	19.4
1985	236,600	12,400	5.2	22,200	9.4	33,100	13.6	44,200	18.7
1986	238,600	12,700	5.3	22,400	9.4	32,400	14.0	44,600	18.7
1987	241,000	12,500	5.2	21,700	9.0	32,200	13.4	43,100	17.9
1988	243,500	12,700	5.2	21,400	8.8	31,700	13.0	42,600	17.5
1989	246,000	12,000	4.9	20,700	8.4	31,500	12.8	42,600	17.3
1990	248,600	12,900	5.2	22,600	9.1	33,600	13.5	44,800	18.0
1991	251,200	14,100	5.6	24,400	9.7	35,700	14.2	47,500	18.9
1992	256,500	15,500	6.1	26,200	10.2	38,000	14.8	50,500	19.7
1993	259,300	16,000	6.2	27,200	10.5	39,300	15.1	51,900	20.0
1994	261,600	15,400	5.9	26,400	10.1	38,100	14.5	50,500	19.3
1995	263,700	13,900	5.3	24,500	9.3	36,400	13.8	48,800	18.5
1996	266,200	14,400	5.4	24,800	9.3	36,500	13.7	49,300	18.5
1997	268,500	14,600	5.4	24,200	9.0	35,600	13.3	47,800	17.8
1998	271,100	13,900	5.1	23,000	8.5	34,500	12.7	46,000	17.0

¹The number of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent of poverty are estimated based on the distribution of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent for 1969 taken from the 1970 decennial census: 1970 Census of Population, Volume 1, Social and Economic Characteristics, Table 259.

Economic Security Risk Factor 2. Poverty Spells

Figure ECON 2. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Nearly half (47 percent) of all poverty spells that began during the 1993 SIPP panel ended within 4 months and three-fourths ended within one year. Only 16 percent of all such spells were longer than 20 months.
Spells of poverty among adults age 65 and older tend to last longer than poverty spells among younger individuals. As shown in Table ECON 2, only 65 percent of poverty spells among adults age 65 and older ended within one year compared to 80 percent for women ages 16 to 64, 75 percent for men ages 16 to 64, and 73 percent for children ages 0 to 15.
As shown in Table ECON 2, a larger percentage of poverty spells among non-Hispanic blacks were longer than 20 months (23 percent) than was the case for spells among non-Hispanic whites (14 percent) and among Hispanics (15 percent).
In general, poverty spells are shorter than spells of welfare receipt begun in the same time period, as can be seen by comparing Figure ECON 2 to Figure IND 5 in Chapter II. That is, there is more movement in and out of poverty than movement on and off welfare. For example, 75 percent of poverty spells lasted a year or less, whereas only 60 percent of food stamp spells and 56 percent of AFDC spells lasted a year or less.

Table ECON 2. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race, and Age

	Spells <=4 months	Spells <=12 months	Spells <=20 months	Spells >20 months
All Persons	47.3	75.4	84.3	15.7
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	47.3	78.8	86.3	13.7
Non-Hispanic Black	39.9	64.1	76.7	23.3
Hispanic	42.5	74.4	84.7	15.3
Age Categories
Children Ages 0 – 15	43.8	73.0	82.2	17.8
Women Ages 16 – 64	47.6	79.9	88.9	11.1
Men Ages 16 – 64	51.6	75.2	84.2	15.8
Adults Age 65 and over	40.7	65.4	73.0	27.0

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Economic Security Risk Factor 3. Long-term Poverty

Figure ECON 3. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1982 Living in Poverty, by Years in Poverty

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1983-1992.

Among children who were ages 0 to 5 in 1982, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) never lived in poverty for any year over the next ten years, as shown in Figure ECON 3. One-fifth (20 percent) lived in poverty for one to five years and 7 percent were poor for six to ten years.
During the 1982-1991 period, 28 percent of black children experienced longer-term poverty of six to ten years, a percentage much higher than that for non-black children during the same ten-year period (3 percent).
Similar patterns existed in the 1972-1981 period, as shown in Table ECON 3. For both time periods, the percentages of all individuals who were poor for only one to two years were much larger than the percentages of all individuals who experienced longer-term poverty. For example, while 11 percent of all individuals were poor for only one to two years between 1982 and 1991, only 3 percent were poor for six to eight years and only 2 percent were poor for nine to ten years during the same time period.
Children were more likely than others to experience long-term poverty, especially poverty of nine or ten years. This pattern was true in both time periods.

Table ECON 3. Percentage of Individuals Living in Poverty, by Years in Poverty, Race, and Age

Between 1982 and 1991:
		All Persons
	All Persons	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	78.8	50.6	82.9
1 - 2 Years	11.3	14.9	10.7
3 - 5 Years	5.3	14.4	4.0
6 - 8 Years	2.8	11.2	2.0
9 - 10 Years	1.8	8.9	0.7
	100.0	100.0	100.0
		Children 0 - 5 in 1982
	All Children	Black Children	Non-Black Children
0 Years	73.3	40.9	79.2
1 - 2 Years	12.3	16.5	11.6
3 - 5 Years	7.5	14.8	6.1
6 - 8 Years	3.2	11.1	1.7
9 - 10 Years	3.8	16.8	1.4
Between 1972 and 1981:
		All Persons
	All Persons	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	79.2	45.6	83.7
1 - 2 Years	12.3	20	11.3
3 - 5 Years	4.6	16.6	3.1
6 - 8 Years	2.5	10.4	1.5
9 – 10 Years	1.2	7.5	0.4
		Children 0 - 5 in 1972
	All Children	Black Children	Non-Black Children
0 Years	75.6	34.1	82.3
1 - 2 Years	13.1	21.7	11.7
3 - 5 Years	5.6	20.5	3.2
6 - 8 Years	3.2	11.1	1.9
9 – 10 Years	2.5	12.8	0.9

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1973-1992.

Economic Security Risk Factor 4. Child SUPPORT

Figure ECON 4a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-98

Figure ECON 4a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-98

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1998 Data Report, 1999 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

Collections paid through the Child Support Enforcement system (Title IV-D of the Social Security Act) totalled $14.3 billion in 1998, nearly $1 billion more than in 1997. Over the past 10 years, collections have grown rapidly, at an average rate of $948 million a year.
Non-TANF collections increased by nearly $1.2 billion between 1997 and 1998, while TANF collections declined by $0.2 billion. The growth in non-TANF collections was due to the growth in both the number of non-custodial parents paying child support and increases in the average amount of support paid per case. Note that the 7 percent drop in TANF collections was smaller than the 20 percent drop in the number of TANF recipient families in the same year.
In 1997 and 1998, over 94 percent of TANF collections (collections on behalf of TANF recipients and for past due support assigned to the state by former TANF recipients) were retained to reimburse the state and federal governments for the cost of welfare benefits. A larger proportion of TANF collections were paid to AFDC/TANF families between FY 1984 and FY 1996, when the first $50 of each month’s child support collection were “passed through” to families that were receiving cash benefits (see “IV-D Payments to AFDC/TANF Families” in Figure ECON 4a). The $50 pass-through was repealed by the 1996 welfare reform law, although a number of states have opted to pass through some or all of collections to the custodial TANF family, despite the loss of revenues to the state.

Table ECON 4a. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-98

	Total Collections (in millions)
	Total		AFDC/TANF Collections
Fiscal Year	Current Dollars	Constant '98 Dollars	Total	Payments to AFDC/TANF Families	Federal & State Share of Collections	Non-AFDC/TANF Collections	Total IV-D Administrative Expenditures
1978	$1,047	$2,568	$472	$13	$459	$575	$312
1979	1,333	3,002	597	12	584	736	383
1980	1,478	2,985	603	10	593	874	466
1981	1,629	2,996	671	12	659	958	526
1982	1,771	3,040	786	15	771	985	612
1983	2,024	3,337	880	15	865	1,144	691
1984	2,378	3,756	1,000	17	983	1,378	723
1985	2,694	4,103	1,090	189	901	1,604	814
1986	3,249	4,821	1,225	275	955	2,019	941
1987	3,917	5,660	1,349	278	1,070	2,569	1,066
1988	4,605	6,403	1,486	289	1,188	3,128	1,171
1989	5,241	6,942	1,593	307	1,286	3,648	1,363
1990	6,010	7,584	1,750	334	1,416	4,260	1,606
1991	6,886	8,271	1,984	381	1,603	4,902	1,804
1992	7,964	9,285	2,259	435	1,824	5,705	1,995
1993	8,907	10,080	2,416	446	1,971	6,491	2,241
1994	9,850	10,860	2,550	457	2,093	7,300	2,556
1995	10,827	11,614	2,689	474	2,215	8,138	3,012
1996	12,020	12,545	2,855	480	2,375	9,165	3,055
1997	13,364	13,581	2,843	157	2,685	10,521	3,432
1998	14,348	14,348	2,650	152	2,498	11,698	3,589

Note: Not all states report current child support collections in all years. Constant dollar adjustments to the 1998 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1998 Data Report, 1999 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

Figure ECON 4b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Non-Custodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment (1997 Dollars): 1986-97

Figure ECON 4b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Non-Custodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment (1997 Dollars): 1986-97 Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998, and Twentieth Annual Report to Congress, for the period ending September 30, 1995 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

Average payments on behalf of families not receiving AFDC/TANF have, over time, been about twice as large as those payments for families receiving AFDC/TANF, as shown in Figure ECON 4b. (Note that many families not on AFDC/TANF may have received AFDC/TANF sometime in the past.)
Although current dollar annual payments on behalf of AFDC/TANF and non-AFDC/TANF families have increased by more than 40 percent between FY 1986 and FY 1997, when converted to constant dollars, average payments have not quite kept pace with inflation (as shown in Table ECON 4b and Figure ECON 4b).

Table ECON 4b. Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Non-Custodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment (Nominal and 1997 Dollars): 1986-97

	AFDC/TANF	Non-AFDC/TANF		Total
Fiscal Year	Current Dollars	Constant ’97 Dollars	Current Dollars	Constant ’97 Dollars	Current Dollars	Constant ’97 Dollars	F.Y. CPI-U
1986	$959	$1,402	$1,936	$2,830	$1,433	$2,095	109.3
1987	910	1,294	1,851	2,632	1,416	2,013	112.4
1988	975	1,332	1,793	2,449	1,468	2,005	117.0
1989	1,046	1,363	1,770	2,307	1,457	1,899	122.6
1990	1,110	1,378	1,998	2,481	1,672	2,076	128.7
1991	1,049	1,240	1,989	2,351	1,711	2,022	135.2
1992	1,210	1,388	2,314	2,655	1,919	2,201	139.3
1993	1,230	1,370	2,498	2,782	1,990	2,216	143.5
1994	1,178	1,278	2,266	2,458	1,889	2,049	147.3
1995	1,294	1,366	2,595	2,739	2,167	2,287	151.4
1996	1,280	1,315	2,591	2,661	2,152	2,210	155.6
1997	1,361	1,361	2,315	2,315	2,118	2,118	159.8
1986-97
– change	$402	-$41	$379	-$515	$685	$23	50.5
– percent	41.9%	-2.9%	19.6%	-18.2%	47.8%	1.1%	46.2%

Note: Data for 1997 are preliminary and do not include information from Florida, Hawaii, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1997 Data Report, 1998, and Twentieth Annual Report to Congress, for the period ending September 30, 1995 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

Economic Security Risk Factor 5. Food Insecurity

Figure ECON 5. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure: 1998

Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, ERS, calculations using data August 1998 CPS Food Security Supplement.

A large majority (88 percent) of American households was food secure in 1998 – that is, showed little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake.
Approximately 12 percent of households experienced food insecurity (not being able to afford enough food) at some level during 1998. More than two-thirds of the food insecure households were without hunger, meaning that although food insecurity was evident in their concerns and in adjustments to household food management, little or no reduction in food intake was reported.
Less than 4 percent of all households were classified as food insecure with hunger. Thus, one or more members of these households were estimated to have experienced reduced food intake and hunger as a result of financial constraints in 1998.
As shown in Table ECON 5, households with children under 18 were more likely than households with elderly but no children to experience food insecurity in 1998 (17.6 percent compared to 5.4 percent).
Households with income below poverty had a higher rate of food insecurity (38 percent) than the 12 percent rate among the general population. Only 5 percent of families with incomes at or above 185 percent of the poverty level showed evidence of food insecurity.

Table ECON 5. Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, by Selected Characteristics: 1998

	Food Secure	Food Insecure Without Hunger	Food Insecure With Hunger
All Households	88.2	8.1	3.7
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	91.7	5.6	2.6
Non-Hispanic Black	75.7	15.8	8.5
Hispanic	75.0	18.2	6.8
Non-Hispanic Other	86.5	9.8	3.6
Households, by Age and Race
Households with Children Under 6	81.2	14.8	4.0
Non-Hispanic White	87.3	10.2	2.5
Non-Hispanic Black	66.6	24.9	8.5
Hispanic	69.8	24.6	5.6
Households with Children Under 18	82.4	13.3	4.3
Non-Hispanic White	87.7	9.3	3.0
Non-Hispanic Black	69.1	22.5	8.4
Hispanic	69.2	23.8	7.0
Households with Elderly but No Children	94.6	3.7	1.7
Non-Hispanic White	96.4	2.6	1.0
Non-Hispanic Black	82.4	11.3	6.3
Hispanic	84.1	9.4	6.5
Households with Children, by Family Structure
Married Couple Families	88.5	9.4	2.1
Female Head, No Spouse	64.6	24.8	10.6
Male Head, No Spouse	80.2	14.3	5.5
Household Income-to-Poverty Ratio
Under 0.50	58.1	25.7	16.2
Under 1.00	61.9	24.4	13.6
Under 1.30	65.7	22.4	11.9
Under 1.85	72.0	18.7	9.3
1.85 and over	94.9	3.8	1.4

Note: Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure without hunger report food-related concerns, adjustments to household food management, and reduced variety and desirability of diet but report little or no reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure with hunger report reduced food intake and hunger, among adults at moderate levels of severity, and extending to children in households with more severe levels of hunger.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, calculations using data from the CPS Food Security Supplement, August 1998.

Economic Security Risk Factor 6. Lack of Health Insurance

Figure ECON 6. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income: 1998

Figure ECON 6. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income: 1998

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, March 1999.

Poor persons were twice as likely as all persons to be without health insurance in 1998 (32 percent compared to 16 percent). While the ratio varied across categories, poor persons with family income at or below the poverty line were more likely to be without health insurance regardless of race, gender, educational attainment, or age.
Hispanics were the racial/ethnic group least likely to have health insurance in 1998, both among the general population and those with incomes below the poverty line. While whites in general were more likely to have insurance than blacks, poor blacks were more likely to have insurance than poor whites.
Among all persons, amount of education was inversely related to health insurance coverage, as shown in Table ECON 6. However, among poor persons, college graduates were just as likely to be without health insurance as those without a high school diploma.
As shown in Table ECON 6, individuals ages 18 to 34 are the most likely to be without health insurance, among both the general population and the poor population. Nearly half of all 18 to 34 year-olds with incomes below the poverty line had no health insurance in 1998.
Table ECON 6. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income and Selected Characteristics: 1998

	All Persons	Poor Persons
All Persons	16.3	32.3
Male	17.3	35.7
Female	15.3	29.9
White	15.0	33.8
Black	22.2	28.8
Hispanic	35.3	44.0
No H.S. Diploma	26.7	36.0
H.S. Graduate, no college	18.3	38.1
College Graduate	8.5	36.6
Age 18 and under	15.4	25.2
Ages 18 – 24	30.0	46.7
Ages 25 – 34	23.7	49.2
Ages 35 – 44	17.2	43.5
Ages 45 – 64	14.2	34.6
Age 65 and over	1.1	3.2

Note: Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Health Insurance Coverage: 1998,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-208, 1999.

Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors (BIRTH).

The final group of risk factors addresses out-of-wedlock childbearing. The tables and figures in this subsection are labeled with the BIRTH prefix. This category includes long-term time trends in births to unmarried women (BIRTH 1), births to unmarried teens (BIRTH 2 and BIRTH 3), and children living in families with never-married parents (BIRTH 4). Children living in families with never-married mothers are at high risk of dependence, and it is therefore important to track changes in the size of this vulnerable population.

As noted above, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter do not represent an exhaustive list of measures. They are merely a sampling of available data that address in some way the question of how a family is faring on the scale of deprivation and well-being. Such questions are a necessary part of the dependence discussion as researchers assess the effects of the major changes that have occurred in the laws governing public assistance programs.

Figure BIRTH 1. Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Age Group: 1940-98

Figure BIRTH 1. Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Age Group: 1940-98

Sources: Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992,” Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; Ventura, S.J., Martin, J.A., Curtin, S.C., Mathews, T.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 1997,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(18), 1999; Martin, J.A., Smith, B.L, Mathews, T.J., Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(25), 1999.

The percentage of children born outside of marriage to women of all ages has increased over the past half-century, from 4 percent in 1940 to 33 percent in 1998. This increase reflects changes in several factors: the rate at which unmarried women have children, the rate at which married women have children, and the rate at which women marry.
The percentage of children born outside of marriage is especially high among teen women, as shown in Figure BIRTH 1. Among teens, close to four-fifths (79 percent) of births were outside of marriage in 1998. The comparable percentage for all women is 33 percent.
Figure BIRTH 1 shows that the percentage of unmarried births to all women has leveled off since 1994. Growth in the percentage of unmarried births to teen mothers has also
slowed since 1994, but it is still rising (from 76 percent in 1994 to 79 percent in 1997).
The trend toward leveling off has occurred among black teens and all black women while among white teens and all white women the trend continues upward (see Table B-1 in Appendix B for non-marital birth data by age and race).

Table BIRTH 1. Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Age Group: 1940-98

	Under 15	15-17 Years	18-19 Years	All Teens	All Women
1940	64.5	N/A	N/A	14.0	3.8
1941	64.1	N/A	N/A	14.2	3.8
1942	64.5	N/A	N/A	13.2	3.4
1943	64.2	N/A	N/A	13.4	3.3
1944	64.5	N/A	N/A	15.7	3.8
1945	70.0	N/A	N/A	18.2	4.3
1946	66.4	N/A	N/A	15.7	3.8
1947	65.1	N/A	N/A	13.0	3.6
1948	61.4	20.8	8.5	12.7	3.7
1949	61.8	21.1	8.6	12.9	3.7
1950	63.7	22.6	9.4	13.9	4.0
1951	62.9	21.8	9.1	13.5	3.9
1952	63.6	22.8	9.2	14.0	3.9
1953	64.0	22.3	9.6	14.1	4.1
1954	64.4	23.2	10.1	14.7	4.4
1955	66.3	23.2	10.3	14.9	4.5
1956	66.1	23.0	10.0	14.6	4.6
1957	66.1	23.1	9.8	14.5	4.7
1958	66.2	23.3	10.3	14.9	5.0
1959	67.9	24.2	10.6	15.4	5.2
1960	67.8	24.0	10.7	15.4	5.3
1961	69.7	25.3	11.3	16.2	5.6
1962	69.5	26.7	11.3	16.4	5.9
1963	71.1	28.2	12.5	18.0	6.3
1964	74.2	29.9	13.5	19.7	6.8
1965	78.5	32.8	15.3	21.6	7.7
1966	76.3	35.3	16.1	22.6	8.4
1967	80.3	37.7	18.0	25.0	9.0
1968	81.0	40.4	20.1	27.6	9.7
1969	79.3	41.3	21.1	28.7	10.0
1970	80.8	43.0	22.4	30.5	10.7
1971	82.1	44.5	23.2	31.8	11.3
1972	81.9	45.9	24.7	33.8	12.4
1973	84.8	46.7	25.6	35.0	13.0
1974	84.6	48.3	27.0	36.4	13.2
1975	87.0	51.4	29.8	39.3	14.2
1976	86.4	54.0	31.6	41.2	14.8
1977	88.2	56.6	34.4	43.8	15.5
1978	87.3	57.5	36.2	44.9	16.3
1979	88.8	60.0	38.1	46.9	17.1
1980	88.7	61.5	39.8	48.3	18.4
1981	89.2	63.3	41.4	49.9	18.9
1982	89.2	65.0	43.0	51.4	19.4
1983	90.4	67.5	45.7	54.1	20.3
1984	91.1	69.2	48.1	56.3	21.0
1985	91.8	70.9	50.7	58.7	22.0
1986	92.5	73.3	53.6	61.5	23.4
1987	92.9	75.8	56.0	64.0	24.5
1988	93.6	77.1	58.5	65.9	25.7
1989	92.4	77.7	60.4	67.2	27.1
1990	91.6	77.7	61.3	67.6	28.0
1991	91.3	78.7	63.2	69.3	29.5
1992	91.3	79.2	64.6	70.5	30.1
1993	91.3	79.9	66.1	71.8	31.0
1994	94.5	84.1	70.0	75.9	32.6
1995	93.5	83.7	69.8	75.6	32.2
1996	93.8	84.4	70.8	76.3	32.4
1997	95.7	86.7	72.5	78.2	32.4
1998	96.5	87.4	73.5	78.8	32.8

Sources: Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992,” Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; Ventura, S.J., Martin, J.A., Curtin, S.C., Mathews, T.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 1997,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(18), 1999; Martin, J.A., Smith, B.L, Mathews, T.J., Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(25), 1999.

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 2. Births to Unmarried Teens

Figure BIRTH 2. Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 – 19, by Race: 1940-98

Sources: Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980–1992,” Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; Ventura, S.J., Martin, J.A., Curtin, S.C., Mathews, T.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 1997,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(18), 1999; Martin, J.A., Smith, B.L, Mathews, T.J., Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(25), 1999.

In contrast to Figure BIRTH 1, which showed births to unmarried teens as a percentage of all teen births, Figure BIRTH 2 shows births to unmarried teens as a percentage of births to all women. Births to unmarried teens as a percentage of all births have risen over time, from 2 percent in 1940 to 10 percent in 1998. This percentage is affected by several factors: the age distribution of the population, the marriage rate among teens, the birth rate among unmarried teens, and the birth rate among all other women.
Since 1960, the trend in the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens has been upward among white women.
Among black women, the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens varied greatly during the same period, peaking in 1975, then falling until the early 1990s. The sharp increase in the percentage for black women in the early 1970s reflects a rise in non-marital teen births concurrent with a decline in total black births. The percentage of all births that were to unmarried black teens has leveled off over the last five years.

Table BIRTH 2. Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 – 19, by Race: 1940-98

	All Races	White	Black
1940	1.7	0.8	N/A
1941	1.7	0.7	N/A
1942	1.5	0.7	N/A
1943	1.5	0.6	N/A
1944	1.6	0.8	N/A
1945	1.8	0.8	N/A
1946	1.5	0.7	N/A
1947	1.4	0.7	N/A
1948	1.5	0.7	N/A
1949	1.5	0.6	N/A
1950	1.6	0.6	N/A
1951	1.5	0.6	N/A
1952	1.5	0.6	N/A
1953	1.6	0.6	N/A
1954	1.7	0.7	N/A
1955	1.7	0.7	N/A
1956	1.7	0.7	N/A
1957	1.8	0.7	N/A
1958	1.9	0.8	N/A
1959	2.0	0.9	N/A
1960	2.0	0.9	N/A
1961	2.2	1.0	N/A
1962	2.3	1.1	N/A
1963	2.5	1.2	N/A
1964	2.8	1.3	N/A
1965	3.3	1.6	N/A
1966	3.8	1.9	N/A
1967	4.1	2.1	N/A
1968	4.5	2.3	N/A
1969	4.7	2.4	17.5
1970	5.1	2.6	18.8
1971	5.5	2.6	20.3
1972	6.2	3.0	22.6
1973	6.5	3.2	23.4
1974	6.7	3.3	23.9
1975	7.1	3.7	24.2
1976	7.1	3.8	23.8
1977	7.2	4.0	23.4
1978	7.2	4.0	22.7
1979	7.2	4.1	22.5
1980	7.3	4.4	22.2
1981	7.1	4.5	21.5
1982	7.1	4.5	21.2
1983	7.2	4.6	21.2
1984	7.1	4.6	20.7
1985	7.2	4.8	20.3
1986	7.5	5.1	20.1
1987	7.7	5.3	20.0
1988	8.0	5.6	20.3
1989	8.3	5.9	18.6
1990	8.4	6.1	18.3
1991	8.7	6.4	18.1
1992	8.7	6.5	20.2
1993	8.9	6.8	20.2
1994	9.7	7.5	21.1
1995	9.6	7.6	21.1
1996	9.6	7.7	20.9
1997	9.9	8.0	21.3
1998	9.9	8.0	20.6

Notes: Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940–1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Data for 1998 are preliminary.

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates Within Age Groups

Figure BIRTH 3a. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 15 - 17, by Race: 1960-97

Figure BIRTH 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 and 19, by Race: 1960-97

Figure BIRTH 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 and 19, by Race: 1960-97

Sources: Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980–1992,” Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; Ventura, S.J., Martin, J.A., Curtin, S.C., Mathews, T.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births: Final Data for 1997,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(18), 1999; Martin, J.A., Smith, B.L, Mathews, T.J., Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, “Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(25), 1999.

The birth rate per 1,000 unmarried teens fell between 1994 and 1997 for both black and white teens and for both younger (15 to 17 years) and older age groups (18 to 19 years). Declines were larger among black teens than among white teens.
Prior to 1994, birth rates among unmarried white teens in both age groups rose steadily for nearly three decades (4 to 24 percent among 15 to 17 year-olds and 11 to 56 percent among 18 to 19 year-olds).
Among unmarried black teens in both age groups, birth rates varied greatly over the period, reaching peaks in both the early 1970s and early 1990s. Rates for both age groups were lower in 1997 than in 1969. While birth rates among unmarried black teens remain high compared to rates for unmarried white teens, the gap been black and white teens is narrowing.

Table BIRTH 3. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women Within Age Groups, by Race: 1960-97

	Ages 15 – 17			Ages 18 – 19
	Total	White	Black	Total	White	Black
1960	11.1	4.4	N/A	24.3	11.4	N/A
1961	11.7	4.6	N/A	24.6	12.1	N/A
1962	10.7	4.1	N/A	23.8	11.7	N/A
1963	10.9	4.5	N/A	25.8	13.0	N/A
1964	11.6	4.9	N/A	26.5	13.6	N/A
1965	12.5	5.0	N/A	25.8	13.9	N/A
1966	13.1	5.4	N/A	25.6	14.1	N/A
1967	13.8	5.6	N/A	27.6	15.3	N/A
1968	14.7	6.2	N/A	29.6	16.6	N/A
1969	15.2	6.6	72.0	30.8	16.6	128.4
1970	17.1	7.5	77.9	32.9	17.6	136.4
1971	17.5	7.4	80.7	31.7	15.8	135.2
1972	18.5	8.0	82.8	30.9	15.1	128.2
1973	18.7	8.4	81.2	30.4	14.9	120.5
1974	18.8	8.8	78.6	31.2	15.3	122.2
1975	19.3	9.6	76.8	32.5	16.5	123.8
1976	19.0	9.7	73.5	32.1	16.9	117.9
1977	19.8	10.5	73.0	34.6	18.7	121.7
1978	19.1	10.3	68.8	35.1	19.3	119.6
1979	19.9	10.8	71.0	37.2	21.0	123.3
1980	20.6	12.0	68.8	39.0	24.1	118.2
1981	20.9	12.6	65.9	39.0	24.6	114.2
1982	21.5	13.1	66.3	39.6	25.3	112.7
1983	22.0	13.6	66.8	40.7	26.4	111.9
1984	21.9	13.7	66.5	42.5	27.9	113.6
1985	22.4	14.5	66.8	45.9	31.2	117.9
1986	22.8	14.9	67.0	48.0	33.5	121.1
1987	24.5	16.2	69.9	48.9	34.5	123.0
1988	26.4	17.6	73.5	51.5	36.8	130.5
1989	28.7	19.3	78.9	56.0	40.2	140.9
1990	29.6	20.4	78.8	60.7	44.9	143.7
1991	30.9	21.8	80.4	65.7	49.6	148.7
1992	30.4	21.6	78.0	67.3	51.5	147.8
1993	30.6	22.1	76.8	66.9	52.4	141.6
1994	32.0	24.1	75.1	70.1	56.4	141.6
1995	30.5	23.6	68.6	67.6	55.4	131.2
1996	29.0	22.7	64.0	65.9	54.1	129.2
1997	28.2	22.4	60.6	65.2	53.6	127.2

Note: Rates are per 1,000 unmarried women in specified group. Births to unmarried women in the U. S. for 1940–1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below (rates for 1960–65 are calculated by ASPE from National Center for Health Statistics estimates of births and Census population estimates). Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the U.S. are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child; see sources below. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years.

Source: See Figures BIRTH 3a and 3b.

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 4. Never-married Family Status

Figure BIRTH 4. Percentage of All Children Living in Families With Never-Married Female Head, by Race: 1982-98

Source of CPS data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Marital Status and Living Arrangements,” Current Population Reports, Series P20-212, 287, 365, 380, 399, 418, 423, 433, 445, 450, 461, 468, 478, 484, 491, 496, 506, 514, various years. Source of 1960 data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, PC(2)-4B, “Persons by Family Characteristics,” tables 1 and 19.

The percentage of children living in families with never-married female heads increased from 5 percent in 1982 to 10 percent in 1998. This increase reflects growth across all racial categories.
The percentage of white children living in families headed by never-married women has increased significantly, from less than 2 percent in 1982 to over 5 percent in 1998. The percentage remains low, however, relative to proportions for other racial categories.
Among Hispanics, the percentage of children living with never-married female heads more than doubled over the past sixteen years, going from less than 6 percent in 1982 to 12 percent in 1998.
The percentage of black children living in families headed by never-married women was much higher than the percentages for other groups throughout the time period. In 1998, 35 percent of black children, compared to 12 percent of Hispanic children and 5 percent of white children, lived in families headed by never-married women.

Table BIRTH 4. Number and Percentage of All Children Living in Families with Never-Married Female Head, by Race and Hispanic Origin: Selected Years

	Number of Children(in thousands)				Percentage⁴
	All Races	White	Black	Hispanic	All Races	White	Black	Hispanic
1960 ¹	221	49	173	–	0.4	0.1	2.2	–
1970 ²	527	110	442	–	0.8	0.2	5.2	–
1975	1,166	296	864	–	1.8	0.5	9.9	–
1980 ²	1,745	501	1,193	210	2.9	1.0	14.5	4.0
1982 ³	2,768	793	1,947	291	4.6	1.6	22.7	5.7
1984	3,131	959	2,109	357	5.2	1.9	23.9	6.5
1986	3,606	1,174	2,375	451	5.9	2.3	26.6	7.2
1987	3,985	1,385	2,524	587	6.5	2.8	28.2	9.2
1988	4,302	1,482	2,736	600	7.0	3.0	30.4	9.2
1989	4,290	1,483	2,695	592	6.9	2.9	29.6	8.7
1990	4,365	1,527	2,738	605	7.0	3.0	29.6	8.7
1991	5,040	1,725	3,176	644	8.0	3.4	33.3	9.0
1992	5,410	2,016	3,192	757	8.4	3.9	33.1	10.3
1993	5,511	2,015	3,317	848	8.5	3.9	33.6	11.3
1994	6,000	2,412	3,321	1,083	9.0	4.5	32.9	12.0
1995	5,862	2,317	3,255	1,017	8.7	4.3	32.3	10.8
1996	6,365	2,563	3,567	1,161	9.4	4.8	34.4	12.0
1997	6,598	2,788	3,575	1,242	9.7	5.1	34.3	12.4
1998	6,700	2,850	3,644	1,254	9.8	5.2	35.1	12.2

¹Decennial census data. Nonwhite data are shown for Black in 1960. ²Revised based on population from the decennial census for that year. ³Introduction of improved data collection and processing procedures that helped to identify parent-child subfamilies. (See Current Population Reports, P-20, 399, Marital Status and Living Arrangements: March 1984.) ⁴Children not living with one or both parents are excluded from the denominator.

Note: Data are for all children under 18 who are not family heads (excludes householders, subfamily reference persons, and their spouses). Also excludes inmates of institutions; children who are living with neither of their parents are excluded from the denominator. Based on Current Population Survey (CPS) except where otherwise indicated. Source of CPS data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Marital Status and Living Arrangements,” Current Population Reports, Series P20-212, 287, 365, 380, 399, 418, 423, 433, 445, 450, 461, 468, 478, 484, 491, 496, 506, 514 , various years. Source of 1960 data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, PC(2)-4B, “Persons by Family Characteristics,” tables 1 and 19.

Appendix A: Program Data

Introduction

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 specifies that the annual welfare indicators reports shall include analyses of families and individuals receiving assistance under three means-tested benefit programs: the program of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) under part A of title IV of the Social Security Act (replaced with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996), the Food Stamp Program under the Food Stamp Act of 1977, as amended, and the Supplemental Security Income program under title XVI of the Social Security Act. This chapter includes information on these three programs, derived primarily from administrative data reported by state and federal agencies instead of the national survey data presented in previous chapters. National caseloads and expenditure trend information on each of the three programs is included, as well as state-by-state trend tables on each program and information on the characteristics of participants in each program.

Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) was established by the Social Security Act of 1935 as a grant program to enable states to provide cash welfare payments for needy children who had been deprived of parental support or care because their father or mother is absent from the home, incapacitated, deceased, or unemployed. All 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands operated an AFDC program. States defined "need," set their own benefit levels, established (within federal limitations) income and resource limits, and administered the program or supervised its administration. States were entitled to unlimited federal funds for reimbursement of benefit payments, at "matching" rates which were inversely related to state per capita income. States were required to provide aid to all persons who were in classes eligible under federal law and whose income and resources were within state-set limits.

During the 1990s, the federal government increasingly used its authority under Section 1115 of the Social Security Act to waive portions of the federal requirements under AFDC. This allowed states to test such changes as expanded earned income disregards, increased work requirements and stronger sanctions for failure to comply with them, time limits on benefits, and expanded access to transitional benefits such as child care and medical assistance. As a condition of receiving waivers, states were required to conduct rigorous evaluations of the impacts of these changes on the welfare receipt, employment, and earnings of participants.

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) eliminated the federal entitlement to cash assistance under AFDC, and replaced AFDC cash welfare and other related programs (AFDC administration, the Job Opportunities and Basic Skills Training (JOBS) program and the Emergency Assistance program) with a cash welfare block grant called Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Key elements of TANF include a lifetime limit of five years (60 months) on the amount of time a family with an adult can receive assistance funded with federal funds, increasing work participation rate requirements which states must meet, and broad state flexibility on program design. Spending through the TANF block grant is capped and funded at $16.4 billion per year, slightly above fiscal year 1995 federal expenditures for the four component programs. States must also meet a "maintenance of effort (MOE) requirement" by spending on needy families at least 75 percent of the amount of state funds used in FY 1994 on these programs (80 percent if they fail work participation rate requirements).

TANF gives states wide latitude in spending both Federal TANF funds and state MOE funds. Subject to a few restrictions, TANF funds may be used in any way that supports one of the four statutory purposes of TANF: to provide assistance to needy families so that children can be cared for at home; to end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits by promoting job preparation, work and marriage; to prevent and reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock pregnancies; and to encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families.

Data Issues Relating to the AFDC-TANF Transition

States had the option of beginning their TANF programs as soon as PRWORA was enacted in August 1996, and a few states began TANF programs as early as September 1996. All states were required to implement TANF by July 1, 1997. Because states implemented TANF at different times, the FY 1997 data reflects a combination of the AFDC and TANF programs. In some states, limited data are available for FY 1997 because states were given a transition period of six months after they implemented TANF before they were required to report data on the characteristics and work activities of TANF participants.

Because of the greatly expanded range of activities allowed under TANF, a substantial portion of TANF funds will be spent on activities other than cash payments to families. For the purpose of tracking expenditure trends, these tables only include those TANF funds spent on "cash and work-based assistance," not on work activities, supportive services, or other allowable uses of funds. However, the administrative costs include funds spent administering these other activities.¹

There also is potential for discontinuity between the AFDC and the TANF caseload figures. One program change is that there is no longer a separate "Unemployed Parent" program under TANF. While a separate work participation rate is calculated for two-parent families, this population is not identical to the UP caseload under AFDC. Moreover, it is possible that a limited number of families will be considered recipients of TANF assistance, even if they do not receive a monthly cash benefit. At present, the vast majority of families receiving "assistance"² are, in fact, receiving cash payments; however, this may change over time.

AFDC/TANF Program Data

The following tables and figures present a variety of data about the AFDC and TANF programs. Tables A-1 through A-5 and Figures A-1 through A-3 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the AFDC/TANF program. These are followed by two tables showing information on characteristics of AFDC/TANF families and a series of tables presenting state-by-state data on trends in the AFDC/TANF program. These data complement the data on trends in AFDC recipiency and participation rates shown in Table IND 9a and Table IND 10a in Chapter II.

Table A-1 presents information on the average monthly number of AFDC families and recipients for each fiscal year since 1970 through 1998. The U.S. caseload peaked at record highs in 1994, with an average 14.2 million recipients in over 5 million families receiving AFDC benefits each month. Since then the caseload has declined about 38 percent — to a monthly average of 8.8 million recipients in 3.2 million families in 1998.

As shown in Figure A-1, AFDC enrollments and benefit outlays generally tended to increase in times of economic recession and decline in times of economic growth. Policy changes, such as the eligibility restrictions of the early 1980s, have also affected caseloads. However, the recent decline has far outstripped that experienced in any previous period. A number of studies have attempted to explain the recent decline, and to determine the relative effect of economic factors versus policy changes in explaining the caseload by looking at the variation in caseload decline among states.

A recent report by the Council of Economic Advisors, The Effects of Welfare Policy and the Economic Expansion on Welfare Caseloads: An Update, August 3, 1999, finds that during the pre-TANF period (1993-1996), the strong economy was the largest factor explaining the welfare decline, and that changing policies under waivers and lower welfare benefits in real dollars also had a substantial impact. During the post-TANF period (1996-1998), the CEA finds that policy changes accounted for about a third of the decline in welfare receipt, and that both the strong economy and the increase in the minimum wage accounted for about 10 percent of the decline each. In both periods, a large portion of the welfare decline is not explained by the examined variables. Possible factors that could account for this additional decline include the expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and changing cultural perceptions of welfare receipt.

A common misperception of welfare families is that they have unusually large numbers of children. Table A-1 and Figure A-2 show that the average number of children per welfare family dropped steadily from the late 1960s through the early 1980s, and has remained steady at around 2 children per household since. While female-headed households receiving welfare have a higher average number of children than non-poor female-headed households, they have a lower average than all poor female-headed households. Children as percentage of all AFDC/TANF recipients have increased somewhat in the past few years, because child-only cases have not declined as fast as other cases in the welfare population.

Table A-2 and Figure A-3 show that inflation has had a significant effect in eroding the value of the average monthly AFDC/TANF benefit. In real dollars, the average monthly benefit per recipient in 1998 was only 65 percent of what it was at its peak in the late 1970s.

Tables A-3 and A-4 show trends in expenditures on AFDC and TANF. Table A-3 breaks out the costs of benefits and administrative expenses, and shows the division between federal and state spending. Table A-4 breaks out the benefits paid under the single parent or "basic" program and the Unemployed Parent (UP) program, and also nets out the value of child support collected on behalf of recipient children, but retained by the state to reimburse welfare expenditures. This table presents data through 1996 only, because the TANF data reporting requirements do not require that caseload data be separated into "basic" and "UP" components.

Table A-5 places the AFDC/TANF caseload trends in context, by showing the number of recipients as a percentage of various populations. In 1998, TANF recipients were a smaller percentage of the total population than at any time since 1967.

Figure A-4 and Table A-6 show a number of demographic characteristics of AFDC/TANF families. One of the most striking trends is the recent jump in the fraction of families with earnings. In FY 1998, 20.6 percent of TANF families had earned income, up from 11.1 percent in FY 1996 and 7.4 percent in FY 1992.

Tables A-7 through A-13 present state-by-state trend data on the AFDC/TANF expenditures and caseloads. These reveal a great deal of state-to-state variation in the trends discussed above. For example, as shown in Table A-9, while every state has experienced a caseload decline since 1993, the percentage change from 1993-1998 ranges from 84 percent (Wyoming) to 12 percent (Rhode Island). Table A-10 shows that states reached their peak caseloads as early as May 1990 (Louisiana) and as late as May 1995 (Maryland).

Food Stamp Program

The Food Stamp Program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Food and Nutrition Service, is the largest food assistance program in the country, reaching more poor individuals over the course of a year than any other public assistance program. Unlike many other public assistance programs, the Food Stamp Program has few categorical requirements for eligibility, such as the presence of children, elderly or disabled individuals in a household. As a result, the program offers assistance to a large and diverse population of needy persons, many of whom are not eligible for other forms of assistance.

The Food Stamp Program was designed primarily to increase the food purchasing power of eligible low-income households to the point where they can buy a nutritionally adequate low-cost diet. Participating households are expected to be able to devote 30 percent of their counted monthly cash income to food purchases. Food stamp benefits then make up the difference between the household's expected contribution to its food costs and an amount judged to be sufficient to buy an adequate low-cost diet. This amount, the maximum food stamp benefit level, is derived from USDA's lowest-cost food plan, the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP).

The Federal government is responsible for virtually all of the rules that govern the program, and, with limited variations, these rules are nationally uniform, as are the benefit levels. Nonetheless, States, the District of Columbia, Guam, and the Virgin Islands, through their local welfare offices, have primary responsibility for the day-to-day administration of the program. They determine eligibility, calculate benefits, and issue food stamp allotments. The Food Stamp Act provides 100 percent federal funding of food stamp benefits. States and other jurisdictions have responsibility for about half the cost of state and local food stamp agency administration.

In addition to the regular Food Stamp Program, the Food Stamp Act authorizes alternative programs in Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. The largest of these, the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico, had an average of 1.2 million participants in 1988, funded under a Federal block grant of $1.2 billion. Unless noted otherwise, the food stamp caseload and expenditure data in this Appendix include costs for the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico. Prior to 1982, the regular Food Stamp Program operated in Puerto Rico, under modified eligibility and benefit rules.

The Food Stamp Program has financial, employment/training-related and "categorical" tests for eligibility. The basic food stamp beneficiary unit is the "household." Generally, individuals living together constitute a single food stamp household if they customarily purchase food and prepare meals in common. Members of the same household must apply together, and their income, expenses, and assets normally are aggregated in determining food stamp eligibility and benefits. Except for households composed entirely of TANF, SSI, or general assistance recipients (who generally are automatically eligible for food stamps), monthly cash income is the primary food stamp eligibility determinant. Unless exempt, adult applicants for food stamps must register for work, typically with the welfare agency or a state employment service office. To maintain eligibility, they must accept a suitable job if offered one and fulfill any work, job search, or training requirements established by the administering welfare agencies.

Food stamp benefits are a function of a household's size, its net monthly income, its assets, and maximum monthly benefit levels. Allotments are not taxable and food stamp purchases may not be charged sales taxes. Receipt of food stamps does not affect eligibility for or benefits provided by other welfare programs, although some programs use food stamp participation as a "trigger" for eligibility and others take into account the general availability of food stamps in deciding what level of benefits to provide.

Recent Legislative and Regulatory Changes

Title IV and Subtitle A of title VIII of the PRWORA contains major and extensive revisions to the Food Stamp Program, including strong work requirements on able-bodied adults without children, restricted benefits for legal immigrants, and a reduction in maximum benefits. These three provisions, and subsequent amendments, are discussed below; their impact on program participation and expenditures begins to appear in food stamp administrative data for 1997, with the fuller impact shown in data for 1998.

First, a new work requirement was added for able-bodied adult food stamp recipients without dependents (ABAWDs). Unless exempt, ABAWDs between the ages of 18 and 50 are not eligible for benefits for more than 3 months in every 36-month period unless they are (1) working at least 20 hours a week; (2) participating in and complying with a work program for at least 20 hours a week; or (3) participating in and complying with a workfare program. Under the original legislation, the Department of Agriculture was authorized to waive application of the work requirement to any group of individuals at the request of the state agency, if a determination is made that the area where they reside has an unemployment rate over 10 percent or does not have a sufficient number of jobs to provide them employment. The provision was further moderated under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-33), which allowed states to exempt up to 15 percent of the ABAWD caseload (beyond those subject to waivers) and which increased funds for the Food Stamp employment and training program for the creation of job slots for the able-bodied.

Separately, title IV of PRWORA made significant changes in the eligibility of noncitizens for Food Stamp benefits. As first enacted, most qualified aliens (including legal immigrants — illegal aliens are already ineligible) were barred from Food Stamps until citizenship. Subsequently, the Agriculture Research, Extension and Education Reform Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-185] restored food stamp eligibility to certain groups of qualified aliens who were legally residing in the United States before passage of PRWORA (August 22, 1996). Specifically, the ban on food stamp eligibility was lifted for children, the disabled and people who were 65 on August 22, 1996.

Finally, the 1996 legislation restrained growth in future program expenditures by making changes in the benefit structure for eligible participants, including a reduction in the maximum food stamp allotment. Other provisions of the 1996 act disqualified from eligibility those convicted of drug-related felonies and gave states the option to disqualify individuals, both custodial and noncustodial parents, from food stamps when they do not cooperate with child support agencies or are in arrears in their child support.

Recent regulatory changes also could affect the Food Stamp Program. In July 1999, President Clinton announced a series of executive actions designed to increase access to food stamps among working poor families. The initiative included regulatory changes to make it easier for working families to report income changes and to own a car and still qualify for food stamps, and a new public education campaign supports states' and localities' efforts to serve this population. These changes were intended to address concerns that some of the decline in food stamp caseloads may be leaving poor families without nutritional assistance as they make the transition from welfare dependence to full self-sufficiency.

Food Stamp Program Data

The following seven tables and figures provide information about the Food Stamp Program, including information about the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico:

Tables A-14 and A-15 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the Food Stamp program, as discussed below;
Figure A-5 and Table A-16 present some demographic characteristics of the food stamp caseload; and
Tables A-17 through A-19 present some state-by-state trend data on the Food Stamp program through fiscal year 1998.

Table A-14 presents information on the average monthly number of food stamp recipients for each fiscal year since 1970 through Fiscal Year 1999. Food stamp participation (including participants in Puerto Rico's block grant) has continued to fall from its peak of 28.9 million in 1994 to an average of 19.3 million persons in 1999. Both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population, food stamp recipiency is lower than at any point in the past twenty years. See also Table IND 9b and Table IND 10b in Chapter II for further data on the recent decline in food stamp recipiency and participation rates.

Total program costs, shown in Table A-15, have also declined. In fiscal year 1998, total program costs (including Puerto Rico) were $20.1 billion, reaching their lowest levels since 1984, after adjusting for inflation. (Average monthly participation in fiscal year 1998 was 21.0 million). Average monthly benefits per person have also declined in recent years after adjusting for inflation. Benefits were $72 per person in fiscal year 1999, considerably lower than the $82 per person benefit (in constant dollars) paid in 1992, but higher than the $68 per person paid in 1987.

In general, the health of the economy has historically been a good predictor of the number of participants in the Food Stamp Program. Economic factors such as increases in unemployment, increases in the number of "working poor," increases in food prices, and changes in the distribution of income are important, as are demographic changes such as an increase in the number of female-headed households. The size of the food stamp caseload also is influenced by programmatic changes, including amendments to the Food Stamp Program, modifications in other public assistance programs, and changes in immigration laws. In addition, changes in attitudes toward "welfare" affect the rate at which eligible individuals participate in the program and may also influence the average length of time spent in the program.

A Congressionally mandated study undertaken in 1990 concluded that a variety of factors contributed to the caseload growth in the late 1980s, including increased unemployment, expansions in Medicaid eligibility, and changes in immigration laws, particularly the legalization of undocumented aliens. Similarly, several factors contribute to the more recent declines in food stamp participation. Some of these declines can be attributed to eligibility changes made in the 1996 welfare law, most notably the elimination of eligibility for most legal immigrants and for many childless adults aged 18-50.³ The strong economy also played an important role in recent caseload declines. In addition, studies of families leaving TANF cash assistance suggest that many of them leave the Food Stamp Program as well, even though many of them appear to be eligible for food stamp benefits. Increased stigma about welfare use and unintentional diversion from the Food Stamp Program may be additional factors affecting food stamp participation.

Supplemental Security Income (SSI)

The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Program is a means tested, federally administered income assistance program authorized by title XVI of the Social Security Act. Established in 1972 (Public Law 92-603) and begun in 1974, SSI provides monthly cash payments in accordance with uniform, nationwide eligibility requirements to needy aged, blind and disabled persons. To qualify for SSI payments, a person must satisfy the program criteria for age, blindness or disability. Children may qualify for SSI if they are under age 18, unmarried, and meet the applicable SSI disability or blindness, income and resource requirements. Individuals and couples are eligible for SSI if their countable incomes fall below the Federal maximum monthly SSI benefit levels, which were $504 for an individual and $751 for a couple in fiscal year 1999. SSI eligibility is restricted to qualified persons who have countable resources/assets of not more than $2,000, or $3,000 for a couple.

SSI law requires that SSI applicants file for all other money benefits for which they may be entitled. Since its inception, SSI has been viewed as the "program of last resort" — after evaluating all other income, SSI pays what is necessary to bring an individual to the statutorily prescribed income "floor." (The Social Security Administration, which administers the SSI program, works with recipients and helps them get any other benefits for which they are eligible.) As of December 1996, 37 percent of all SSI recipients also received Social Security benefits; Social Security benefits are the single highest source of income for SSI recipients.

No individual could receive both SSI payments and AFDC benefits; if eligible for both, the individual was required to choose which benefit to receive. Generally, the AFDC agency encouraged individuals to file for SSI and, once the SSI payments had started, the individual was removed from the AFDC filing unit. The PRWORA does not specifically prohibit an individual's receipt of both TANF benefits and SSI; states have complete authority to set TANF eligibility standards and benefit levels.

Except in California, which converted food stamp benefits to cash that is included in the State supplementary payment, SSI recipients may be eligible to receive food stamps. If all household members receive SSI, they do not need to meet the Food Stamp Program financial eligibility standards to participate in the program because they are categorically eligible. If SSI beneficiaries live in households where other household members do not receive SSI benefits, the household must meet the net income eligibility standard of the Food Stamp Program to be eligible for food stamp benefits.

Recent Legislative Changes

Several legislative changes made in the 104th Congress are likely to affect Supplemental Security Income (SSI) participation and expenditures. Public Law 104-121, the Contract with America Advancement Act of 1996, prohibits SSI eligibility to individuals whose drug addiction and/or alcoholism (DAA) is a contributing factor material to the finding of disability. This provision applied to individuals who filed for benefits on or after the date of enactment (March 29, 1996) and to individuals whose claims were finally adjudicated on or after the date of enactment. It applied to current beneficiaries on January 1, 1997.

The PRWORA made several changes designed to maintain the SSI program's goal of providing benefits for severely disabled children while preventing children without serious impairments from receiving benefits. First, the act replaced the former law "comparable severity" test with a new definition of childhood disability based on a medically determinable physical or mental impairment. Second, it discontinued use of the Individualized Functional Assessment (IFA) which authorized subjective judgment to determine children's eligibility for SSI. Third, it eliminated references to "maladaptive behavior" in the Listings of Impairments (among medical criteria for evaluation of mental and emotional disorders in the domain of personal/behavioral function). The latter two provisions were effective for all new and pending applications upon enactment (August 22, 1996). Current beneficiaries receiving benefits due to an IFA or maladaptive behavior listing received notice no later than January 1, 1997, that their benefits might end when their case is redetermined. All currently receiving benefits are subject to redetermination using the new eligibility criteria by February 28, 1998 (per P.L. 105-33, enacted August 5, 1997).

Title IV of PRWORA also made significant changes in the eligibility of noncitizens for SSI benefits. Essentially, qualified aliens (including legal immigrants) are barred from SSI. Some of the restrictions were subsequently moderated, most notably by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-33), which grandfathered immigrants who were receiving SSI at the time of enactment of the PRWORA.

SSI Program Data

The following set of tables and figures provide SSI program data:

Tables A-20 through A-23 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the SSI program;
Figures A-6 and A-7 present some demographic characteristics of the SSI caseload; and
Tables A-24 through A-26 present some state-by-state trend data on the SSI program through fiscal year 1996.

Table A-20 presents information on the number of persons receiving SSI payments in December of each year from 1974 through 1998. In addition to data on the total number of SSI recipients, Table A-20 also shows recipients by eligibility category (aged, blind and disabled) and by type of recipient (child, adult age 18-64, and adult age 65 or older). See also Table IND 9a and Table IND 9b in Chapter II for further data on trends in recipiency and participation rates.

From 1990 to 1995, the program increased from 4.8 million beneficiaries to 6.5 million beneficiaries, an average growth rate of over 6 percent per year. Since 1995, the number of beneficiaries has stabilized, fluctuating between 6.5 and 6.6 million persons. In December 1998, there were 6.6 million beneficiaries.

The composition of the SSI caseload has been shifting over time, as shown in Table A-20. The number of beneficiaries eligible because of age has been declining steadily, from a high of 2.3 million persons in December 1975 to 1.3 million persons in December 1998. At the same time there has been a strong growth in disabled beneficiaries, from 1.6 million in December 1974 to 5.1 million in December 1998. Moreover, the number of disabled children has increased dramatically, particularly in the 1990s, when the number of disabled children receiving SSI increased from 340,000 in December 1990 to over 1 million in December 1996. The number of disabled children has fallen in the past two years, declining to 928,000 in December 1998.

Several factors have contributed to the growth of the Supplemental Security Income program. Expansions in disability eligibility (particularly for mentally impaired adults and for children), increased outreach, overall growth in immigration, and transfers from state programs were among the key factors identified in a 1995 study by the General Accounting Office (GAO). GAO concluded that three groups – adults with mental impairments, children, and non-citizens – accounted for nearly 90 percent of the SSI program's growth in the early 1990s: adults with mental impairments, non-citizens, and children. The growth in disabled children beneficiaries is generally believed to be due to outreach activities, the Supreme Court decision in the Zebley case⁴, expansion of the medical impairment category, and reduction in reviews of continuing eligibility.

Footnotes

1. In addition, IV-A child care administrative costs were included under AFDC, but are no longer counted under TANF, since these programs were moved to the Child Care and Development Fund as part of PRWORA.

2. States are allowed to use TANF funds on a variety of services, including employment and training services, domestic violence services, and child care, transportation, and other support services. Families receiving such services, however, should generally not be counted as recipients of TANF ‘assistance." Under the final regulations for TANF, "assistance" includes primarily payments directed at ongoing basic needs. It includes payments when individuals are participating in community service and work experience (or other work activities) as a condition of receiving payments (e.g., workfare). In addition to cash assistance, the definition also includes certain child care and transportation benefits (provided the families are not employed). It excludes, however, such things as: non-recurrent, short-term benefits; services without a cash value, such as education and training, case management, job search, and counseling; and benefits such as child care and transportation when provided to employed families.

3. By April 1, 1997, many states began removing legal immigrants who were receiving food stamps on August 22, 1996. Most states removed at least a portion of the childless 18-50 year olds on or around March 1, 1997.

4. On February 20, 1990, the Supreme Court ruled that the individual functional assessment (or a residual functional capacity assessment) applied to adults whose condition did not meet or equal a listing of medical impairments to determine eligibility should also be applied to children whose condition did not meet or equal the medical listing of impairments. The GAO study estimated that 87,000 children were added to the SSI caseload after the individual functional assessments for children were initiated.

List of Figures

Figure A-1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance

Figure A-1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance ¹

Figure A-1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance

¹The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program.
Note: Shaded areas are periods of recession. Effective July 1, 1981 families with incomes greater than 150 percent of a State's standard of need were no longer eligible for income assistance; this income cut-off was raised to 185 percent in 1984. Last data point plotted is December 1998.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation.

Figure A-2. Average Number of Children per Family For Families with Related Children Under 18 by Living Arrangement, 1960 – 1998

Figure A-2. Average Number of Children per Family For Families with Related Children Under 18 by Living Arrangement, 1960 – 1998 (In millions)

Figure A-2. Average Number of Children per Family For Families with Related Children Under 18 by Living Arrangement, 1960 – 1998

Note: For 1960-74 the average number of children per married-couple family is estimated based on all male-headed families of which during this period they comprised 98-99 percent.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992-1993 and earlier years; U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998," Current Population Reports, Series P60-207 and earlier years.

Figure A-3. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Benefit by Family and Recipient in Constant Dollars

Figure A-3. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Benefit by Family and Recipient in Constant Dollars

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992 & 1993, and unpublished data.

Figure A-4. Characteristics of AFDC Families

Figure A-4. Characteristics of AFDC Families

Figure A-4. Characteristics of AFDC Families

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of TANF Recipients: Fiscal Year 1998 and earlier years, (Current data available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/ofa/content.htm).

Figure A-5. Characteristics of Food Stamp Recipients

Figure A-5. Characteristics of Food Stamp Recipients

Figure A-5. Characteristics of Food Stamp Recipients

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households: Fiscal Year 1998 (Advance Report) and earlier years.

In 1998, over one-fourth (26 percent) of food stamp households had earned income during the same month they were receiving food stamps. This is the highest proportion of households with earnings over the period examined. From 1980 to 1995, the proportion of food stamp households with earnings was in the range of 18 to 21 percent.
There has been a drop in the proportion of food stamp households that receive AFDC/TANF income, from 43 percent in 1990, to 31 percent in 1998. The sharpest decline was between 1996 and 1998. The overall proportion of those food stamp households receiving any public assistance (e.g., AFDC/TANF, SSI or general assistance) has not declined as steeply, because of growth in the proportion of household receiving SSI income, as shown in Table A-16.
About three-fifths (58 percent) of food stamp households had children in 1998. The proportion of households with children was slightly higher (60 to 62 percent) in most of the period between 1985 and 1996.
The vast majority (91 percent) of households receiving food stamps had gross monthly income below the poverty level in 1998, as shown in Table A-16. This percentage has ranged from a low of 87 percent in 1980 to a high of 95 percent in the recession year of 1982.

Figure A-6. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 – 1998

Figure A-6. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 – 1998

Figure A-6. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 – 1998

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

The proportion of persons receiving SSI who are 65 years of age or older (as a percent of all SSI recipients) has decreased steadily from a high of 61 percent in 1974 to a low of 31 percent in 1998, essentially cutting the proportion of recipients who are elderly in half. The actual number who are 65 or older has declined from 2.5 million in 1975 to a little more than 2 million today, (as shown in Table A-20).
The percentage of child recipients increased two and one half times during the 1970s, going from 2 percent in 1974 to 5 percent by the end of the decade. During the 1980s, it remained fairly constant at about 6 percent. In the 1990s, the share of child recipients increased rapidly, more than doubling to 15 percent in 1997. It declined slightly, to 14 percent, in 1998.
The percentage of persons receiving SSI between the ages of 18 and 64 has increased steadily over time, rising from 38 percent in 1974 to 55 percent in 1998.

Figure A-7. Number and Percentage Distribution of Persons Age 15 or Older With Supplemental Security Income, by Race and Hispanic Origin Selected Years, 1975 – 1998

Figure A-7. Number and Percentage Distribution of Persons Age 15 or Older With Supplemental Security Income, by Race and Hispanic Origin Selected Years, 1975 – 1998 (In thousands)

Figure A-7. Number and Percentage Distribution of Persons Age 15 or Older With Supplemental Security Income, by Race and Hispanic Origin Selected Years, 1975 – 1998

Note: The numbers above each column indicate the particular group's percent share of total recipients in the given year. The sum of the percentages does not equal 100.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States: 1998," Current Population Reports, Series P60-206 and earlier years.

List of Tables

Table A-1. Trends in AFDC/TANF Enrollments, 1962 – 1998

	Average Monthly Number (In thousands)					Children as a Percent of Total Recipients	Average Number of Children per Family
Fiscal Year	Total Families ¹	Total Recipients	Unemployed Parent Families	Unemployed Parent Recipients	Total Children	Children as a Percent of Total Recipients	Average Number of Children per Family
1962...........	924	3,593	49	224	2,778	77.3	3.0
1963...........	950	3,834	54	291	2,896	75.5	3.0
1964...........	984	4,059	60	343	3,043	75.0	3.1
1965...........	1,037	4,323	69	400	3,242	75.0	3.1
1966...........	1,074	4,472	62	361	3,369	75.3	3.1
1967...........	1,141	4,718	58	340	3,561	75.5	3.1
1968...........	1,307	5,348	67	377	4,011	75.0	3.1
1969...........	1,538	6,147	66	361	4,591	74.7	3.0
1970...........	1,909	7,429	78	420	5,494	74.0	2.9
1971...........	2,532	9,556	143	726	6,963	72.9	2.8
1972...........	2,918	10,632	134	639	7,698	72.4	2.6
1973...........	3,124	11,038	120	557	7,965	72.2	2.5
1974...........	3,170	10,845	95	434	7,824	72.1	2.5
1975...........	3,357	11,067	101	451	7,928	71.6	2.4
1976...........	3,575	11,339	135	593	8,156	71.9	2.3
1977...........	3,593	11,108	149	659	7,818	70.4	2.2
1978...........	3,539	10,663	128	567	7,475	70.1	2.1
1979...........	3,496	10,311	114	506	7,193	69.8	2.1
1980...........	3,642	10,597	141	612	7,320	69.1	2.0
1981...........	3,871	11,160	209	881	7,615	68.2	2.0
1982...........	3,569	10,431	232	976	6,975	66.9	2.0
1983...........	3,651	10,659	272	1,144	7,051	66.1	1.9
1984...........	3,725	10,866	287	1,222	7,153	65.8	1.9
1985...........	3,692	10,813	261	1,131	7,165	66.3	1.9
1986...........	3,748	10,995	254	1,102	7,300	66.4	1.9
1987...........	3,784	11,065	236	1,035	7,381	66.7	2.0
1988...........	3,748	10,920	210	929	7,325	67.1	2.0
1989...........	3,771	10,935	193	856	7,370	67.4	2.0
1990...........	3,974	11,460	204	899	7,755	67.7	2.0
1991...........	4,374	12,592	268	1,148	8,513	67.6	1.9
1992...........	4,768	13,625	322	1,348	9,226	67.7	1.9
1993...........	4,981	14,143	359	1,489	9,560	67.6	1.9
1994...........	5,046	14,226	363	1,510	9,611	67.6	1.9
1995...........	4,879	13,659	335	1,384	9,280	67.9	1.9
1996...........	4,552	12,644	301	1,241	8,671	68.6	1.9
1997 ².........	3,947	10,954	275 ³	1,158 ³	7,781 ³	71.0 ³	2.0 ³
1998...........	3,179	8,770	179	753⁴	6,330	72.2	2.0

¹ Includes unemployed parent families.
² The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program.
³ Based on data from the old AFDC reporting system which was available only for the first 9 months of the fiscal year.
⁴ Estimated based on the ratio of Unemployed Parent recipients to Unemployed Parent families in 1997.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, (Available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/).

Table A-2. Trends in AFDC/TANF Average Monthly Payments, 1962 – 1998

	Monthly Benefit per Recipient		Average Number of Persons per Family	Monthly Benefit per Family (not reduced by Child Support)		Weighted Average ¹ Monthly Benefit (per 3-person Family)
Fiscal Year	Current Dollars	1998 Dollars	Average Number of Persons per Family	Current Dollars	1998 Dollars	Current Dollars	1998 Dollars
1962...........	$31	$155	3.9	$121	$603	NA	NA
1963...........	31	153	4.0	126	618	NA	NA
1964...........	32	154	4.1	131	637	NA	NA
1965...........	34	161	4.2	140	670	NA	NA
1966...........	35	164	4.2	146	681	NA	NA
1967...........	36	165	4.1	150	681	NA	NA
1968...........	40	173	4.1	162	710	NA	NA
1969...........	43	182	4.0	173	729	186 ²	787
1970...........	46	184	3.9	178	716	194 ²	781
1971...........	48	184	3.8	180	694	201 ²	774
1972...........	51	191	3.6	187	696	205 ²	763
1973...........	53	189	3.5	187	667	213 ²	759
1974...........	57	186	3.4	194	637	229 ²	752
1975...........	63	189	3.3	209	626	243	728
1976...........	71	199	3.2	226	633	257	720
1977...........	78	203	3.1	241	629	271	708
1978...........	83	203	3.0	249	613	284	696
1979...........	87	196	2.9	257	579	301	678
1980...........	94	190	2.9	274	554	320	648
1981...........	96	177	2.9	277	509	326	600
1982...........	103	177	2.9	300	516	331	569
1983...........	106	175	2.9	311	511	336	553
1984...........	110	174	2.9	321	507	352	555
1985...........	112	171	2.9	329	501	369	562
1986...........	116	172	2.9	339	503	383	569
1987...........	123	178	2.9	359	519	393	568
1988...........	127	177	2.9	370	514	404	561
1989...........	131	174	2.9	381	505	412	546
1990...........	135	170	2.9	389	491	421	531
1991...........	135	162	2.9	388	466	425	510
1992...........	136	159	2.9	389	453	419	488
1993...........	131	149	2.8	373	422	414	469
1994...........	134	147	2.8	376	415	420	458
1995...........	134	144	2.8	377	404	418	449
1996...........	135	140	2.8	374	390	422	440
1997 ³........	134	136	2.8	373	379	420	427
1998...........	132	132	2.8	364	364	431	431

¹The maximum benefit for a 3-person family in each state is weighted by that state’s share of total AFDC families.
²Estimated based on the weighted average benefit for a 4-person family.
³The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program.
Note: AFDC benefit amounts have not been reduced by child support collections. Constant dollar adjustments to 1998 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year price index.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992 & 1993 and earlier years along with unpublished data.

Table A-3. Total, Federal, and State AFDC/TANF Expenditures, 1970 – 1998

Table A-3. Total, Federal, and State AFDC/TANF Expenditures, 1970 – 1998 [In millions of current and 1998 dollars]

	Federal Funds (Current Dollars)		State Funds (Current Dollars)		Total (Current Dollars)		Total (Constant 98 Dollars ¹)
Fiscal Year	Benefits	Administrative	Benefits	Administrative	Benefits	Administrative	Benefits	Administrative
1970..............	$2,187	$572 ²	$1,895	$309	$4,082	$881 ²	$16,409	$3,541
1971..............	3,008	271	2,469	254	5,477	525	21,077	2,020
1972..............	3,612	240 ³	2,942	241	6,554	481 ³	24,356	NA
1973................	3,865	313	3,138	296	7,003	610	24,995	2,177
1974..............	4,071	379	3,300	362	7,371	740	24,232	2,433
1975..............	4,625	552	3,787	529	8,412	1,082	25,205	3,242
1976..............	5,258	541	4,418	527	9,676	1,069	27,140	2,998
1977..............	5,626	595	4,762	583	10,388	1,177	27,122	3,073
1978..............	5,724	631	4,898	617	10,621	1,248	26,016	3,057
1979..............	5,825	683	4,954	668	10,779	1,350	24,279	3,041
1980..............	6,448	750	5,508	729	11,956	1,479	24,210	2,995
1981..............	6,928	835	5,917	814	12,845	1,648	23,651	3,034
1982..............	6,922	878	5,934	878	12,857	1,756	22,118	3,021
1983..............	7,332	915	6,275	915	13,607	1,830	22,389	3,011
1984..............	7,707	876	6,664	822	14,371	1,698	22,681	2,680
1985..............	7,817	890	6,763	889	14,580	1,779	22,212	2,710
1986..............	8,239	993	6,996	967	15,235	1,960	22,637	2,912
1987..............	8,914	1,081	7,409	1,052	16,323	2,133	23,584	3,082
1988..............	9,125	1,194	7,538	1,159	16,663	2,353	23,129	3,266
1989..............	9,433	1,211	7,807	1,206	17,240	2,417	22,837	3,202
1990..............	10,149	1,358	8,390	1,303	18,539	2,661	23,393	3,358
1991..............	11,165	1,373	9,191	1,300	20,356	2,673	24,451	3,211
1992..............	12,258	1,459	9,993	1,378	22,250	2,837	25,940	3,308
1993..............	12,270	1,518	10,016	1,438	22,286	2,956	25,221	3,345
1994..............	12,512	1,680	10,285	1,621	22,797	3,301	25,134	3,639
1995..............	12,019	1,770	10,014	1,751	22,032	3,521	23,632	3,777
1996..............	11,065	1,633	9,346	1,633	20,411	3,266	21,303	3,409
1997 ⁴...........	9,746	1,271	7,902	1,128	17,648	2,399	17,935	2,438
1998..............	6,788	1,125	7,096	1,028	13,884	2,154	13,884	2,154

Note: Benefits do not include emergency assistance payments and have not been reduced by child support collections. Foster care payments are included from 1971 to 1980. Beginning in fiscal year 1984, the cost of certifying AFDC households for food stamps is shown in the food stamp program’s appropriation under the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Administrative costs include: Work Program, ADP, FAMIS, Fraud Control, Child Care administration (through 1996), SAVE and other State and local administrative expenditures.
¹Constant dollar adjustments to 1998 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year price index.
²Includes expenditures for services.
³Administrative expenditures only.
⁴ The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program. Under PRWORA, spending categories are not entirely equivalent to those under AFDC: for example administrative expenses under TANF do not include IV-A child care administration (which accounted for 4 percent of 1996 administrative expense).
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Program Systems.

Table A-4. Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996

Table A-4. Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996 [In millions of current and 1996 dollars]

Fiscal Year	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Fiscal Year	Single Parent ¹	Unemployed Parent	Child Support Collections ²	Net Benefits ³ (1) + (2) minus (3)	Net Benefits (1996 dollars) ⁴
1970	3,851	231	0	4,082	15,722
1971	4,993	412	0	5,405	19,882
1972	5,972	422	0	6,394	22,715
1973	6,459	414	0	6,873	22,504
1974	6,881	324	0	7,205	22,740
1975	7,791	362	0	8,153	23,363
1976	8,825	525	245	9,105	24,469
1977	9,420	617	395	9,642	24,121
1978	9,624	565	459	9,730	22,870
1979	9,865	522	584	9,803	21,156
1980	10,847	693	593	10,947	21,186
1981	11,769	1,075	659	12,185	21,472
1982	11,601	1,256	771	12,086	19,879
1983	12,136	1,471	865	12,742	20,128
1984	12,759	1,612	983	13,388	20,264
1985	13,024	1,556	901	13,679	19,967
1986	13,672	1,563	951	14,284	20,335
1987	14,807	1,516	1,070	15,252	21,115
1988	15,243	1,420	1,196	15,466	20,569
1989	15,889	1,350	1,286	15,952	20,246
1990	17,059	1,480	1,416	17,123	20,702
1991	18,529	1,827	1,603	18,753	21,583
1992	20,130	2,121	1,824	20,426	22,816
1993	19,988	2,298	1,971	20,315	22,028
1994	20,393	2,404	2,093	20,704	21,871
1995	19,820	2,212	2,215	19,817	20,367
1996	18,438	1,973	2,374	18,037	18,037

¹Includes payments to two-parent families where one adult is incapacitated.
²Total AFDC collections (including collections on behalf of foster care children) less payments to AFDC families.
³Net AFDC benefits--Gross benefits less those reimbursed by child support collections.
⁴Constant dollar adjustments to 1996 level were made using a CPI-U-XI fiscal year price index.
Note: Data are not available after 1996 because the TANF data reporting requirements do not require that caseload data be separated into single parent and unemployed parent components.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Financial Management.

Table A-5. Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage of Various Population Groups, 1970 – 1998

Table A-5. Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage of Various Population Groups, 1970 – 1998

Calendar ¹Year	Total Recipients in the States & DC (in thousands)	Child Recipients inthe States & DC (in thousands)	Recipients as a Percentof Total Population ²	Recipients as a Percentof Poverty Population ³	Recipients as a Percent of Pretransfer Poverty Population ⁴	Child Recipients as a Percentof Total Child Population ²	Child Recipients as a Percent of Children in Poverty ³
1970...........	8,303	6,104	4.1	32.7	NA	8.8	58.5
1971...........	10,043	7,303	4.9	39.3	NA	10.5	69.2
1972...........	10,736	7,766	5.1	43.9	NA	11.2	75.5
1973...........	10,738	7,763	5.1	46.7	NA	11.3	80.5
1974...........	10,621	7,637	5.0	45.4	NA	11.3	75.2
1975...........	11,131	7,928	5.2	43.0	NA	11.8	71.4
1976...........	11,098	7,850	5.1	44.4	NA	11.8	76.4
1977...........	10,856	7,632	4.9	43.9	NA	11.7	74.2
1978...........	10,387	7,270	4.7	42.4	NA	11.2	73.2
1979...........	10,140	7,057	4.5	38.9	53.1	11.0	68.0
1980...........	10,599	7,295	4.7	36.2	49.2	11.4	63.2
1981...........	10,893	7,397	4.7	34.2	47.1	11.7	59.2
1982...........	10,161	6,767	4.4	29.5	40.6	10.8	49.6
1983...........	10,569	6,967	4.5	29.9	41.9	11.1	50.1
1984...........	10,644	7,017	4.5	31.6	43.6	11.2	52.3
1985...........	10,672	7,073	4.5	32.3	45.0	11.3	54.4
1986...........	10,851	7,206	4.5	33.5	46.6	11.5	56.0
1987...........	10,842	7,240	4.5	33.6	46.7	11.5	55.9
1988...........	10,728	7,201	4.4	33.8	47.7	11.4	57.8
1989...........	10,799	7,286	4.4	34.3	47.6	11.5	57.9
1990...........	11,497	7,781	4.6	34.2	47.1	12.1	57.9
1991...........	12,728	8,601	5.0	35.6	49.1	13.2	60.0
1992...........	13,571	9,189	5.3	35.7	50.8	13.9	60.1
1993...........	14,007	9,460	5.4	35.7	48.5	14.1	60.2
1994...........	13,970	9,448	5.4	36.7	50.0	13.9	61.8
1995...........	13,241	9,013	5.0	36.4	50.1	13.1	61.5
1996...........	12,155	8,355	4.6	33.3	46.4	12.1	57.8
1997...........	10,223	7,340 ⁵	3.8	28.7	40.7	10.5	52.0
1998...........	8,200	5,756	3.0	23.8	34.6	8.2	42.7

¹Total recipients are calculated here as the monthly average for the calendar year in order to compare with the calendar year counts of the poverty populations used to compute the recipiency rates. See Table IND 9a for fiscal year recipiency rates.
² Population numbers used as denominators are resident population. See Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106.
³For poverty population data see Current Population Reports, Series P60-201 and Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999.
⁴The pretransfer poverty population used as denominator is the number of all persons in families with related children under 18 years of age whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations.
⁵ Average for January through June of 1997.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998," Current Population Reports, Series P60-207 and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).

Table A-6. AFDC Characteristics, 1969 – 1998

Table A-6. AFDC Characteristics, 1969 – 1998

	May	May	March	Fiscal year ¹
	1969	1975	1979	1983	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Average Family Size (persons)	4.0	3.2	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.9	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.8
Number of Child Recipients (percentof AFDCCases):
One	26.6	37.9	42.3	43.4	42.5	42.2	42.5	42.6	43.9	42.4
Two	23.0	26.0	28.1	29.8	30.2	30.3	30.2	30.0	29.9	29.6
Three	17.7	16.1	15.6	15.2	15.8	15.8	15.5	15.6	15.0	15.7
Four or More	32.5	20.0	13.9	10.1	9.9	9.9	10.1	9.6	9.2	10.6
Unknown	NA	NA	NA	1.5	1.7	1.4	0.7	1.5	1.3	1.8
Basis for Eligibility (percent of children):
Parents Present:
Incapacitated	11.7 ²	7.7	5.3	3.4	3.7	3.6	4.1	3.9	4.3	NA
Unemployed	4.6 ²	3.7	4.1	8.7	6.5	6.4	8.2	8.7	8.3	NA
Parents Absent:
Death	5.5 ²	3.7	2.2	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.6	NA
Divorce or Separation	43.3 ²	48.3	44.7	38.5	34.6	32.9	30.0	26.5	24.3	NA
No Marriage Tie	27.9 ²	31.0	37.8	44.3	51.9	54.0	53.1	55.7	58.6	NA
Other Reason	3.5 ²	4.0	5.9	1.4	1.6	1.9	2.0	2.6	2.4	NA
Unknown	NA	NA	NA	1.7	NA	NA	0.9	1.0	0.6	NA
Mother's Employment Status (percent of mothers) ³:
Full-Time Job	8.2	10.4	8.7	1.5	2.2	2.5	2.2	3.2	4.7	NA
Part-Time Job	6.3	5.7	5.4	3.4	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.5	5.4	NA
Presence of Income (percent of families):
With Earnings	NA	14.6	12.8	5.7	8.4	8.2	7.4	8.7	11.1	20.6
No Non-AFDC Income	56.0	71.1	80.6 ⁴	86.8 ⁴	79.6 ⁴	80.1 ⁴	78.9 ⁴	78.0	76.0	73.0
Median Months on AFDC
Since Most Recent Opening	23.0	31.0	29.0	26.0	26.3	23.0	22.5	21.5	23.6	NA
Proportion of Households (percent offamilies):
Living in Public Housing	12.8	14.6	NA	10.0	9.6	9.6	9.2	8.3	8.8	NA
Participating in Food Stamp
Or Donated Food Program	52.9	75.1	75.1	83.0	84.6	85.6	87.3	88.7	89.3	83.5
Incld. Non-Recipient Members	33.1	34.8	NA	36.9	36.8	37.7	38.9	46.4	49.9	NA

¹ Percentages are based on the average monthly caseload during the year. Hawaii and the territories are not included in 1983. Data after 1986 include the territories and Hawaii.
² Calculated on the basis of total number of families.
³ For years after 1983, data are for adult female recipients.
⁴ States began collecting child support directly in 1975, removing one source of non-AFDC income.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of TANF Recipients: Fiscal Year 1998 and earlier years, (Current data available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/opre/characteristics/fy98/sum.htm).

Table A-7. AFDC/TANF Benefits by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978 – 1998

Table A-7. AFDC/TANF Benefits ¹by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978 – 1998
[Millions of dollars]

	1978	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Alabama	$78	$72	$74	$68	$62	$62	$85	$92	$75	$42
Alaska	17	32	37	46	54	60	96	113	107	77
Arizona	30	49	67	79	103	138	243	266	228	137
Arkansas	51	34	39	48	53	57	61	57	52	23
California	1,813	2,734	3,207	3,574	4,091	4,955	5,828	6,088	5,908	4,081
Colorado	74	87	107	107	125	137	163	158	129	67
Connecticut	168	210	226	223	218	295	377	397	323	274
Delaware	28	28	28	25	24	29	37	40	35	24
Dist. of Columbia	91	86	75	77	76	84	102	126	121	97
Florida	145	207	251	261	318	418	733	806	680	357
Georgia	103	172	149	223	266	321	420	428	385	299
Guam	3	4	5	4	3	5	8	12	14	NA
Hawaii	83	88	83	73	77	99	125	163	173	153
Idaho Illinois	21 699	20 802	21 845	19 886	19 815	20 839	24 883	30 914	30 833	6 771
Indiana	118	139	153	148	167	170	218	228	153	67
Iowa	107	127	159	170	155	152	164	169	131	82
Kansas	73	81	87	91	97	105	119	123	98	41
Kentucky	122	123	135	104	143	179	213	198	191	134
Louisiana	97	127	145	162	182	188	182	168	130	54
Maine	51	59	69	84	80	101	118	108	99	80
Maryland	166	213	229	250	250	296	333	314	285	190
Massachusetts	476	468	406	471	558	630	751	730	560	442
Michigan	780	1,064	1,214	1,248	1,231	1,211	1,162	1,132	779	540
Minnesota	164	235	287	322	338	355	387	379	333	222
Mississippi	33	55	58	74	85	86	89	82	68	60
Missouri	152	175	196	209	215	228	274	287	254	143
Montana	15	19	27	37	41	40	46	49	45	30
Nebraska	38	49	56	62	56	59	65	62	54	37
Nevada	8	12	10	16	20	27	41	48	48	31
New Hampshire New Jersey	21 489	25 513	16 485	20 509	21 459	32 451	54 527	62 531	50 462	37 345
New Mexico	32	45	49	51	56	61	106	144	153	105
New York	1,689	1,641	1,916	2,099	2,140	2,259	2,944	2,913	2,929	2,194
North Carolina	138	143	149	138	206	247	335	353	300	178
North Dakota	14	14	16	20	22	24	28	26	21	17
Ohio	441	606	725	804	805	877	984	1,016	763	405
Oklahoma	74	74	85	100	119	132	169	165	122	39
Oregon	148	100	101	120	128	145	200	197	155	141
Pennsylvania	726	740	724	389	747	798	906	935	822	536
Puerto Rico	25	65	38	33	67	72	75	74	63	NA
Rhode Island	59	70	71	79	82	99	128	136	125	117
South Carolina	52	76	75	103	91	96	119	115	101	52
South Dakota	18	17	17	15	21	22	25	25	22	10
Tennessee	77	74	83	100	125	168	206	215	190	108
Texas	122	118	229	281	344	416	517	544	496	292
Utah	41	47	52	55	61	64	76	77	64	47
Vermont Virgin Islands Virginia	21 2 136	38 3 166	40 2 165	40 2 179	40 2 169	48 3 177	67 4 225	65 4 253	56 4 199	47 NA 113
Washington	175	240	294	375	401	438	606	610	585	383
West Virginia Wisconsin	53 260	56 406	75 519	109 444	107 506	110 440	120 453	126 425	101 291	32 115
Wyoming	6	9	13	16	19	19	27	21	17	6
United States	$10,621	$12,857	$14,371	$15,236	$16,663	$18,543	$22,250	$22,798	$20,411	$13,884

¹Benefits refers to total cash benefits paid (see Table A-3) but does not include emergency assistance payments.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Program Support, Office of Management Services, data from the ACF-196 TANF Report and ACF-231 AFDC Line by Line Report.

Table A-8. Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and 1998 Family Assistance Grants Awarded Under PRWORA

Table A-8. Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and 1998 Family Assistance Grants Awarded Under PRWORA [In millions]

State	FY 1996 Grants for AFDC, EA & JOBS ¹	FY 1998 State Family Assistance Grant ²	Increase from FY 1996 Level	Percent Increase fr FY 1996 Level
United States	$14,931	$16,562	$1,631	11
Alabama	$75.9	$96.0	$20.1	26
Alaska	58.7	65.3	6.6	11
Arizona	197.8	226.4	28.6	14
Arkansas	51.9	58.2	6.4	12
California	3,622.8	3,732.7	109.9	3
Colorado	158.3	139.3	-19.0	-12
Connecticut	215.3	266.8	51.5	24
Delaware	35.2	32.3	-2.9	-8
Dist of Columbia	70.8	92.6	21.8	31
Florida	497.5	576.9	79.3	16
Georgia	288.4	339.7	51.3	18
Hawaii	97.9	98.9	1.0	1
Idaho	31.3	32.8	1.5	5
Illinois	601.1	585.1	-16.0	-3
Indiana	133.1	206.8	73.7	55
Iowa	128.9	131.5	2.7	2
Kansas	89.8	101.9	12.2	14
Kentucky	157.2	181.3	24.0	15
Louisiana	114.3	168.1	53.8	47
Maine	74.8	78.1	3.3	4
Maryland	214.3	229.1	14.8	7
Massachusetts	353.1	459.4	106.3	30
Michigan	632.2	775.4	143.1	23
Minnesota	220.8	268.0	47.1	21
Mississippi	70.3	88.9	18.6	26
Missouri	195.4	217.1	21.7	11
Montana	40.4	46.7	6.3	16
Nebraska	56.0	58.0	2.0	4
Nevada	41.4	44.9	3.5	9
New Hampshire	34.7	38.5	3.8	11
New Jersey	383.2	404.0	20.9	5
New Mexico	132.1	129.3	-2.8	-2
New York	2,160.7	2,442.9	282.3	13
North Carolina	312.6	310.9	-1.7	-1
North Dakota	25.7	26.4	0.7	3
Ohio	543.7	728.0	184.3	34
Oklahoma	118.2	147.8	29.6	25
Oregon	142.0	166.8	24.8	17
Pennsylvania	770.1	719.5	-50.6	-7
Rhode Island	89.5	95.0	5.5	6
South Carolina	94.4	100.0	5.6	6
South Dakota	20.2	21.3	1.1	5
Tennessee	137.4	196.7	59.3	43
Texas	419.0	498.9	79.9	19
Utah	64.7	78.9	14.2	22
Vermont	42.4	47.4	5.0	12
Virginia	121.4	158.3	36.9	30
Washington	415.4	404.3	-11.1	-3
West Virginia	87.7	110.2	22.5	26
Wisconsin	276.4	317.5	41.1	15
Wyoming	15.0	21.5	6.6	44

¹Excludes IV-A child care. AFDC benefits include the Federal share of child support collections to be comparable to the Family Assistance Grant; 1996 expenditures as reported through February 25, 1997.
²The awards include State Family Assistance Grants (SFAG) and Supplemental Grants for Population Increases. AZ, CA, OK, OR, SD WI, and WY cumulative totals have been adjusted for Tribes operating TANF within the State.
Source: U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Legislative Affairs and Budget.

Table A-9. Average Monthly AFDC Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 1998

Table A-9. Average Monthly AFDC Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 1998 [In thousands]

	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	Percent Change
	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	1989-93	1993-98
Alabama	78	123	160	180	151	130	118	58	8	-59
Alaska	5	8	12	15	16	20	37	31	87	-15
Arizona	40	51	71	51	72	124	190	110	87	-44
Arkansas	30	45	101	85	64	71	63	35	4	-52
California	528	1,148	1,362	1,387	1,619	1,902	2,680	2,072	40	-16
Colorado	42	66	96	77	79	102	109	55	27	-55
Connecticut	59	83	125	139	122	120	171	129	52	-20
Delaware	12	20	31	32	24	21	25	17	44	-38
Dist. of Columbia	20	40	103	85	58	49	73	57	39	-15
Florida	106	204	265	256	271	370	622	291	113	-58
Georgia	71	198	354	221	239	293	383	202	50	-49
Guam	1	2	3	5	6	4	8	7	34	30
Hawaii	14	25	47	60	51	44	66	47	31	-15
Idaho	10	16	19	21	17	17	24	4	27	-80
Illinois	262	368	777	672	735	636	696	508	9	-26
Indiana	48	73	162	157	165	154	189	113	43	-46
Iowa	44	64	85	104	123	98	101	68	4	-33
Kansas	36	53	67	68	67	77	80	37	19	-58
Kentucky	81	129	159	167	160	175	189	128	44	-43
Louisiana	104	202	235	213	230	282	251	123	-5	-53
Maine	19	36	80	60	57	56	60	41	33	-40
Maryland	80	131	216	212	195	186	223	126	26	-43
Massachusetts	94	208	347	350	235	263	274	176	35	-46
Michigan	162	253	641	685	691	655	598	360	8	-48
Minnesota	51	76	124	135	152	171	180	144	17	-25
Mississippi	83	115	186	173	155	179	144	60	-4	-65
Missouri	107	140	260	199	197	211	254	156	29	-40
Montana	7	13	22	19	22	29	34	21	25	-38
Nebraska	16	30	38	35	44	43	41	37	18	-23
Nevada	5	12	14	12	14	23	41	27	75	-24
New Hampshire	4	9	26	22	14	16	28	15	132	-48
New Jersey	104	286	440	459	367	309	316	208	17	-40
New Mexico	30	51	61	53	51	57	104	68	63	-29
New York	517	1,052	1,210	1,100	1,112	981	1,256	915	22	-24
North Carolina	111	124	170	198	166	223	313	184	67	-45
North Dakota	8	11	14	13	12	16	14	9	21	-53
Ohio	183	266	535	513	673	632	612	366	14	-49
Oklahoma	73	95	97	89	82	112	124	65	34	-53
Oregon	31	75	99	102	74	89	104	48	35	-60
Pennsylvania	303	426	627	629	561	521	596	378	16	-38
Puerto Rico	202	223	232	168	173	190	168	126	3	-34
Rhode Island	24	38	52	52	44	46	61	54	47	-12
South Carolina	30	52	135	153	120	111	129	66	36	-55
South Dakota	11	16	25	20	16	19	17	10	6	-50
Tennessee	76	129	201	162	155	211	276	148	59	-52
Texas	91	214	394	308	363	611	743	401	45	-49
Utah	22	33	34	37	38	45	46	29	21	-44
Vermont	5	12	21	23	22	22	27	20	45	-29
Virgin Islands	1	2	4	3	4	3	5	4	11	10
Virginia	46	87	174	166	154	151	184	103	33	-47
Washington	71	109	143	154	178	228	286	215	31	-25
West Virginia	116	93	69	77	106	111	105	48	9	-60
Wisconsin	45	79	161	213	288	237	209	46	-3	-81
Wyoming	4	5	7	7	10	14	15	3	33	-84
United States	4,323	7,415	11,094	10,597	10,813	11,460	13,659	8,770	29	-38

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, Time Trends, FY 1984-1995, and unpublished data.

Table A-10. AFDC Caseload by State, October 1989 to June 1999 Peak

Table A-10. AFDC Caseload by State, October 1989 to June 1999 Peak [In thousands]

State	Peak Caseload Oct ‘89 to June ‘99	Date Peak Occurred Oct ’89 to June ‘99	June ‘97 Caseload	June ‘99 Caseload	Percent Decline ¹ June ‘97 to June ‘99	Percent Decline Peak to June '99
Alabama	52.3	Mar-93	32.0	19.4	39	63
Alaska	13.4	Apr-94	12.0	8.3	31	38
Arizona	72.8	Dec-93	52.5	33.2	37	54
Arkansas	27.1	Mar-92	20.7	12.0	42	56
California	933.1	Mar-95	789.9	607.3	23	35
Colorado	43.7	Dec-93	28.7	13.4	53	69
Connecticut	61.9	Mar-95	55.5	33.4	40	46
Delaware	11.8	Apr-94	9.5	6.3	33	47
Dist. of Columbia	27.5	Apr-94	23.7	17.9	24	35
Florida	259.9	Nov-92	160.6	73.5	54	72
Georgia	142.8	Nov-93	98.2	53.1	46	63
Guam	2.6	Sep-97	2.2	2.6	-17	0
Hawaii	23.6	Sep-97	23.4	15.8	32	33
Idaho	9.5	Mar-95	6.7	1.3	81	87
Illinois	243.1	Aug-94	191.6	114.7	40	53
Indiana	76.1	Sep-93	42.4	37.2	12	51
Iowa	40.7	Apr-94	28.4	21.3	25	48
Kansas	30.8	Aug-93	18.2	12.8	30	58
Kentucky	84.0	Mar-93	62.5	40.6	35	52
Louisiana	94.7	May-90	51.7	36.6	29	61
Maine	24.4	Aug-93	18.2	13.6	25	44
Maryland	81.8	May-95	55.0	34.9	37	57
Massachusetts	115.7	Aug-93	76.0	50.9	33	56
Michigan	233.6	Apr-91	145.8	90.5	38	61
Minnesota	66.2	Jun-92	52.3	45.1	14	32
Mississippi	61.8	Nov-91	36.4	14.9	59	76
Missouri	93.7	Mar-94	67.6	48.4	28	48
Montana	12.3	Mar-94		4.9	45	60
Nebraska	17.2	Mar-93	8.8 13.3	10.8	19	37
Nevada	16.3	Mar-95	11.7	7.4	37	55
New Hampshire	11.8	Apr-94	7.9	6.4	19	46
New Jersey	132.6	Nov-92	97.6	59.6	39	55
New Mexico	34.9	Nov-94	25.9	25.2	3	28
New York	463.7	Dec-94	371.0	287.9	22	38
North Carolina	134.1	Mar-94	95.6	55.4	42	59
North Dakota	6.6	Apr-93	4.0	3.1	23	54
Ohio	269.8	Mar-92	180.5	103.1	43	62
Oklahoma	51.3	Mar-93	28.3	18.3	35	64
Oregon	43.8	Apr-93	22.7	16.9	26	61
Pennsylvania	212.5	Sep-94	157.0	107.7	31	49
Puerto Rico	61.7	Jan-92	47.3	35.4	25	43
Rhode Island	22.9	Apr-94	19.5	18.0	8	21
South Carolina	54.6	Jan-93	30.3	17.2	43	68
South Dakota	7.4	Apr-93	5.0	3.1	39	58
Tennessee	112.6	Nov-93	64.4	56.7	12	50
Texas	287.5	Dec-93	204.0	107.5	47	63
Utah	18.7	Mar-93	11.6	9.6	17	49
Vermont	10.3	Apr-92	8.2	6.5	21	37
Virgin Islands	1.4	Dec-95	1.2	0.9	25	36
Virginia	76.0	Apr-94	50.9	34.6	32	54
Washington	104.8	Feb-95	91.4	60.7	34	42
West Virginia	41.9	Apr-93		11.1	61	74
Wisconsin	82.9	Jan-92	28.7 38.1	8.3	78	90
Wyoming	7.1	Aug-92	2.0	0.8	62	89
United States	5,098	Mar-94	3,789	2,536	33	50

¹Negative values denote percent increase.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, Division of Data Collection and Analysis.

Table A-11. Average Number of AFDC Child Recipients By State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 1998

Table A-11. Average Number of AFDC Child Recipients By State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 1998 [In thousands]

	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	Percent Change
	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	C1989-93	1993-98
United States	3,242	5,483	7,952	7,320	7,165	7,755	9,280	6,330	30	-34
Alabama	62	96	119	129	105	93	87	46	9	-54
Alaska	4	6	9	10	10	13	24	20	82	-12
Arizona	31	39	54	38	50	87	130	50	82	-63
Arkansas	23	34	75	62	45	51	45	27	4	-48
California	391	816	943	932	1,070	1,294	1,833	1,504	44	-12
Colorado	33	50	68	53	53	69	74	44	26	-46
Connecticut	43	62	92	97	82	81	114	88	51	-19
Delaware	9	15	23	22	16	14	17	15	42	-21
Dist. of Columbia	16	31	75	59	43	34	51	42	20	-9
Florida	85	160	200	184	191	264	432	215	103	-55
Georgia	54	150	261	161	166	206	269	151	48	-45
Guam	1	1	2	4	4	3	5	5	31	41
Hawaii	10	18	33	40	33	29	43	33	31	-12
Idaho	7	11	14	14	11	11	16	3	24	-79
Illinois	202	283	562	473	493	436	478	383	9	-19
Indiana	36	55	119	111	111	105	129	79	40	-44
Iowa	32	46	59	69	77	64	66	46	5	-30
Kansas	28	41	50	49	45	52	55	27	18	-55
Kentucky	58	93	113	118	107	117	128	91	38	-37
Louisiana	79	157	177	156	163	199	173	127	-3	-33
Maine	14	26	56	40	36	35	38	28	31	-34
Maryland	61	100	157	145	126	124	152	91	27	-39
Massachusetts	71	153	242	228	152	168	176	121	35	-42
Michigan	119	190	454	460	441	427	398	253	9	-44
Minnesota	39	58	89	91	95	110	121	99	19	-21
Mississippi	66	93	144	128	112	129	106	48	-3	-62
Missouri	82	106	193	135	129	139	175	120	28	-30
Montana	6	10	16	13	15	19	22	14	26	-37
Nebraska	12	23	28	25	29	29	29	27	16	-16
Nevada	4	9	10	8	9	16	29	20	74	-19
New Hampshire	3	7	18	15	9	11	18	10	123	-44
New Jersey	79	209	316	318	247	213	213	153	16	-36
New Mexico	23	39	45	35	34	37	67	44	52	-28
New York	380	759	862	759	729	658	811	660	21	-16
North Carolina	83	94	125	141	113	152	211	136	64	-39
North Dakota	6	8	10	9	8	10	10	6	18	-46
Ohio	136	198	373	348	424	414	415	261	15	-45
Oklahoma	55	71	74	65	57	77	86	46	33	-51
Oregon	23	52	67	65	49	60	71	34	33	-56
Pennsylvania	217	307	430	432	369	345	403	276	17	-32
Puerto Rico	161	166	170	118	116	130	114	85	2	-34
Rhode Island	18	27	37	36	28	30	41	31	47	-23
South Carolina	24	40	100	109	84	80	96	50	37	-53
South Dakota	8	12	18	15	11	13	12	8	7	-45
Tennessee	58	99	150	115	105	144	190	106	63	-51
Texas	68	162	292	225	256	428	522	285	44	-48
Utah	16	23	23	24	24	31	31	22	23	-37
Vermont	4	8	14	14	14	14	17	13	41	-28
Virgin Islands	1	2	3	2	3	2	3	2	9	-41
Virginia	35	66	125	116	103	104	128	74	34	-44
Washington	50	76	95	97	113	148	184	142	31	-23
West Virginia	80	65	47	58	64	68	67	34	10	-54
Wisconsin	34	60	116	142	181	158	146	33	-1	-79
Wyoming	3	4	5	5	7	9	10	2	34	-82

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, unpublished data.

Table A-12. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 - 1998

Table A-12. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 - 1998 [In percent]

	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	Percent Change
	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	1989-93	1993-98
United States	4.4	7.6	11.6	11.3	11.2	11.9	13.4	8.9	23	-37
Alabama	4.6	7.7	9.9	11.1	9.7	8.8	8.0	4.3	9	-54
Alaska	3.1	5.0	6.2	8.0	5.9	7.4	12.6	10.6	69	-14
Arizona	4.8	6.0	7.2	4.8	5.9	8.6	11.0	4.0	61	-67
Arkansas	3.1	5.2	10.9	9.3	7.1	8.2	7.0	4.1	3	-50
California	6.0	12.3	14.6	14.6	15.6	16.2	20.9	16.9	28	-16
Colorado	4.4	6.4	8.4	6.5	6.1	7.8	7.6	4.3	16	-51
Connecticut	4.4	6.1	9.8	11.8	10.8	10.8	14.4	11.1	46	-20
Delaware	4.7	7.5	12.3	13.4	10.2	8.7	9.6	8.3	33	-23
Dist. of Columbia	6.0	13.8	41.1	40.9	33.9	30.7	44.6	40.5	30	1
Florida	4.3	7.6	8.4	7.8	7.6	8.8	12.9	6.1	78	-59
Georgia	3.2	9.1	15.5	9.8	10.1	11.8	14.0	7.5	38	-50
Hawaii	3.6	6.5	11.7	14.5	11.6	10.5	14.2	11.0	24	-12
Idaho	2.7	4.2	4.8	4.7	3.6	3.6	4.7	0.9	15	-80
Illinois	5.3	7.5	16.0	14.6	16.1	14.8	15.3	12.0	6	-22
Indiana	2.0	3.0	6.9	6.9	7.5	7.3	8.7	5.2	39	-46
Iowa	3.2	4.7	6.6	8.4	10.2	8.8	9.1	6.4	4	-30
Kansas	3.5	5.4	7.3	7.5	6.9	7.9	8.0	3.9	14	-56
Kentucky	4.9	8.3	10.2	10.9	10.5	12.4	13.1	9.2	38	-39
Louisiana	5.5	11.3	13.2	11.8	12.2	16.5	14.1	10.6	-1	-31
Maine	3.9	7.7	16.4	12.5	11.7	11.5	12.4	9.5	32	-31
Maryland	4.6	7.3	11.9	12.4	11.4	10.6	12.0	7.1	18	-41
Massachusetts	3.8	8.1	14.2	15.3	11.2	12.4	12.3	8.3	31	-44
Michigan	3.7	5.8	15.0	16.7	17.7	17.4	15.7	9.9	6	-45
Minnesota	2.9	4.2	7.0	7.7	8.5	9.4	9.8	7.9	12	-23
Mississippi	7.0	11.1	17.3	15.7	14.0	17.6	14.0	6.3	-3	-62
Missouri	5.2	6.9	13.2	9.9	9.8	10.6	12.7	8.5	23	-32
Montana	2.0	4.0	6.6	5.7	6.1	8.4	9.5	6.3	22	-34
Nebraska	2.3	4.4	5.8	5.5	6.8	6.8	6.5	6.2	14	-18
Nevada	2.5	5.2	5.4	3.8	3.9	5.0	7.3	4.2	37	-38
New Hampshire	1.4	2.6	6.9	5.8	3.7	3.9	6.2	3.5	114	-46
New Jersey	3.4	8.8	14.1	16.0	13.5	11.7	10.8	7.7	10	-38
New Mexico	5.2	9.5	10.9	8.5	7.8	8.3	13.5	8.8	42	-31
New York	6.3	13.0	16.3	16.2	16.7	15.4	17.9	14.7	16	-16
North Carolina	4.4	5.3	7.2	8.5	7.1	9.3	11.8	7.1	54	-46
North Dakota	2.3	3.6	4.9	4.7	4.3	6.0	5.7	4.0	23	-44
Ohio	3.6	5.3	10.9	11.2	14.7	14.9	14.6	9.2	14	-45
Oklahoma	6.4	8.5	8.7	7.6	6.3	9.1	9.8	5.2	31	-52
Oregon	3.3	7.4	9.6	9.0	6.9	8.1	8.8	4.2	22	-59
Pennsylvania	5.5	8.0	12.3	13.8	12.9	12.3	13.9	9.6	14	-32
Rhode Island	5.9	9.1	13.3	14.7	12.6	13.4	17.2	13.2	42	-23
South Carolina	2.3	4.2	10.4	11.6	9.1	8.7	10.1	5.2	35	-54
South Dakota	3.1	5.0	8.2	7.1	5.7	6.7	6.0	3.9	3	-44
Tennessee	4.2	7.5	11.3	8.9	8.6	11.8	14.5	8.0	57	-53
Texas	1.7	4.1	7.1	5.2	5.4	8.7	9.7	5.1	34	-52
Utah	3.7	5.4	5.0	4.4	4.0	4.9	4.5	3.1	16	-41
Vermont	2.7	5.4	9.3	9.9	9.9	9.5	11.5	9.0	37	-25
Virginia	2.2	4.1	7.9	7.9	7.1	6.8	7.9	4.5	27	-47
Washington	4.7	6.5	8.5	8.5	9.7	11.3	13.0	9.6	17	-28
West Virginia	12.2	11.2	8.4	10.4	12.6	15.7	15.7	8.4	16	-51
Wisconsin	2.2	3.8	7.8	10.5	14.2	12.1	10.8	2.5	-5	-79
Wyoming	2.1	3.2	4.1	3.4	4.1	7.0	7.5	1.7	37	-81

Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of AFDC child recipients in each State during the given fiscal year as a percent of the resident population under 18 years of age as of July 1 of that year. The numerators are from Table A-11.
Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available on line at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Table A-13. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 1998

Table A-13. AFDC Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 1998 [In percent]

	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	Percent Change
	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1998	1989-93	1993-98
United States	2.1	3.5	5.0	4.6	4.5	4.5	5.1	3.2	24	-41
Alabama	2.2	3.6	4.3	4.6	3.8	3.2	2.8	1.3	4	-60
Alaska	1.8	2.6	3.1	3.7	3.0	3.7	6.1	5.0	72	-17
Arizona	2.6	2.9	3.1	1.9	2.3	3.4	4.4	2.3	69	-52
Arkansas	1.5	2.3	4.7	3.7	2.8	3.0	2.6	1.4	1	-54
California	2.9	5.7	6.3	5.8	6.1	6.4	8.5	6.3	31	-20
Colorado	2.2	3.0	3.7	2.6	2.5	3.1	2.9	1.4	16	-60
Connecticut	2.1	2.7	4.1	4.5	3.8	3.7	5.2	3.9	53	-20
Delaware	2.4	3.6	5.4	5.4	3.9	3.2	3.5	2.3	36	-42
Dist. of Columbia	2.5	5.3	14.6	13.3	9.2	8.1	13.2	10.9	51	-6
Florida	1.8	3.0	3.1	2.6	2.4	2.8	4.4	2.0	96	-61
Georgia	1.6	4.3	7.0	4.0	4.0	4.5	5.3	2.6	39	-54
Hawaii	1.9	3.2	5.4	6.2	4.9	3.9	5.5	4.0	23	-17
Idaho	1.4	2.2	2.3	2.2	1.7	1.6	2.1	0.3	14	-82
Illinois	2.5	3.3	6.9	5.9	6.4	5.6	5.9	4.2	6	-29
Indiana	1.0	1.4	3.0	2.9	3.0	2.8	3.3	1.9	39	-48
Iowa	1.6	2.3	3.0	3.6	4.3	3.5	3.5	2.4	2	-34
Kansas	1.6	2.4	2.9	2.9	2.8	3.1	3.1	1.4	16	-60
Kentucky	2.5	4.0	4.6	4.6	4.3	4.8	4.9	3.2	40	-45
Louisiana	2.9	5.6	6.1	5.0	5.2	6.7	5.8	2.8	-6	-54
Maine	1.9	3.6	7.5	5.4	4.9	4.5	4.9	3.3	31	-40
Maryland	2.2	3.3	5.2	5.0	4.4	3.9	4.4	2.5	20	-45
Massachusetts	1.8	3.7	6.0	6.1	4.0	4.4	4.5	2.9	35	-47
Michigan	2.0	2.9	7.0	7.4	7.6	7.0	6.2	3.7	4	-49
Minnesota	1.4	2.0	3.2	3.3	3.6	3.9	3.9	3.0	12	-28
Mississippi	3.6	5.2	7.8	6.9	6.0	6.9	5.4	2.2	-6	-67
Missouri	2.4	3.0	5.4	4.0	3.9	4.1	4.8	2.9	25	-42
Montana	1.0	1.9	2.9	2.4	2.7	3.6	3.9	2.4	19	-41
Nebraska	1.1	2.0	2.5	2.2	2.8	2.7	2.5	2.2	15	-25
Nevada	1.2	2.4	2.3	1.5	1.4	1.9	2.7	1.5	44	-40
New Hampshire	0.7	1.2	3.1	2.4	1.4	1.5	2.4	1.3	128	-51
New Jersey	1.5	4.0	6.0	6.2	4.9	4.0	4.0	2.6	15	-42
New Mexico	3.0	5.0	5.3	4.1	3.5	3.8	6.2	3.9	51	-34
New York	2.9	5.8	6.7	6.3	6.2	5.5	6.9	5.0	21	-24
North Carolina	2.2	2.4	3.1	3.4	2.6	3.4	4.4	2.4	58	-49
North Dakota	1.2	1.7	2.1	2.0	1.8	2.4	2.3	1.4	23	-53
Ohio	1.8	2.5	5.0	4.8	6.3	5.8	5.5	3.3	12	-50
Oklahoma	3.0	3.7	3.5	2.9	2.5	3.6	3.8	1.9	31	-55
Oregon	1.6	3.6	4.3	3.9	2.8	3.1	3.3	1.4	24	-63
Pennsylvania	2.6	3.6	5.3	5.3	4.8	4.4	5.0	3.1	15	-38
Rhode Island	2.7	4.0	5.5	5.5	4.5	4.6	6.2	5.5	48	-11
South Carolina	1.2	2.0	4.6	4.9	3.6	3.2	3.5	1.7	30	-57
South Dakota	1.6	2.4	3.6	2.9	2.3	2.7	2.3	1.4	2	-51
Tennessee	2.0	3.3	4.7	3.5	3.3	4.3	5.3	2.7	52	-55
Texas	0.9	1.9	3.1	2.1	2.2	3.6	4.0	2.0	35	-53
Utah	2.2	3.1	2.8	2.5	2.3	2.6	2.3	1.4	10	-50
Vermont	1.4	2.6	4.4	4.4	4.2	3.9	4.7	3.4	41	-31
Virginia	1.0	1.9	3.4	3.1	2.7	2.4	2.8	1.5	26	-49
Washington	2.4	3.2	4.0	3.7	4.0	4.7	5.3	3.8	19	-31
West Virginia	6.4	5.3	3.7	4.0	5.5	6.2	5.8	2.6	8	-60
Wisconsin	1.1	1.8	3.5	4.5	6.1	4.8	4.1	0.9	-7	-81
Wyoming	1.1	1.5	1.8	1.4	2.0	3.1	3.0	0.6	30	-85

Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of AFDC recipients in each State during the given fiscal year expressed as a percent of the total resident population as of July 1 of that year. The numerators are from Table A-9.
Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available on line at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Table A-14. Trends in Food Stamp Participation, Selected Years 1962 – 1999

Table A-14. Trends in Food Stamp Participation, Selected Years 1962 – 1999

	Food Stamp Participants ¹			Participants as a Percent of:			Child Participants As a Percent of:
Fiscal Year	Including Territories (in thousands)	Excluding Territories (in thousands)	Children Excld Terr. (in thousands)	Total Population ²	All Poor Persons ²	Pre-transfer Poverty Population ³	Total Child Population ²	Children in Poverty ²
1962	6,554	6,554	NA	3.5	17.0	NA	NA	NA
1965	5,166	5,166	NA	2.7	15.5	NA	NA	NA
1970	8,277	8,277	NA	4.1	32.6	NA	NA	NA
1971	13,042	13,042	NA	6.3	51.0	NA	NA	NA
1972	14,102	14,102	NA	6.7	57.7	NA	NA	NA
1973	14,641	14,641	NA	6.9	63.7	NA	NA	NA
1974	14,784	14,765	NA	6.9	63.2	NA	NA	NA
1975 ⁴	18,308	17,217	NA	8.0	66.2	NA	NA	NA
1976	18,240	16,733	9,126	7.7	66.7	NA	13.8	88.8
1977	17,014	15,579	NA	7.1	62.7	NA	NA	NA
1978	15,988	14,503	NA	6.5	58.9	NA	NA	NA
1979 ⁵	17,682	15,976	NA	7.1	60.9	57.1	NA	NA
1980	21,082	19,253	9,493	8.5	65.5	60.7	15.5	85.6
1981	22,430	20,654	9,674	9.0	64.6	60.8	15.5	78.4
1982 ⁶	22,055	20,392	9,545	8.8	59.0	56.3	15.3	70.3
1983 ⁶	23,195	21,667	10,783	9.3	61.1	58.5	17.4	78.4
1984 ⁶	22,384	20,796	10,372	8.8	61.7	58.5	16.8	78.2
1985 ⁶	21,379	19,847	9,824	8.3	60.0	56.6	15.8	76.1
1986 ⁶	20,909	19,381	9,846	8.1	59.9	56.2	15.7	76.5
1987 ⁶	20,583	19,072	9,765	7.9	59.2	55.6	15.5	75.4
1988 ⁶	20,095	18,613	9,363	7.6	58.6	55.2	14.8	75.1
1989 ⁶	20,266	18,778	9,429	7.6	59.6	55.6	14.9	74.9
1990 ⁶	21,547	20,038	10,127	8.0	59.7	55.7	15.8	75.4
1991 ⁶	24,115	22,599	11,952	9.0	63.3	59.3	18.4	83.3
1992 ⁶	26,886	25,369	13,349	9.9	66.7	64.0	20.2	87.3
1993 ⁶	28,422	26,952	14,196	10.5	68.6	63.8	21.2	90.3
1994 ⁶	28,879	27,434	14,391	10.5	72.2	66.9	21.2	94.1
1995 ⁶	27,989	26,579	13,860	10.1	73.0	67.6	20.2	94.5
1996 ⁶	26,872	25,494	13,189	9.6	69.9	64.7	19.1	91.2
1997 ⁶	24,148	22,820	11,847	8.5	64.3	60.0	17.0	83.9
1998 ⁶	20,970	19,746	10,524	7.3	57.4	57.9	15.1	78.1
1999 ⁶	19,327	18,151	NA	6.7	NA	NA	NA	NA

¹Total participants includes all participating States, the District of Columbia, and the territories (including Puerto Rico). The number of child participants includes only the participating States and D.C. (the territories are not included). From 1962 to 1983 the number of participants includes the Family Food Assistance Program (FFAP) which was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. The FFAP participants (as of December) for the seven years shown during the period from 1962 to 1974 were respectively: 6,411; 4,742; 3,977; 3,642; 3,002; 2,441; and 1,406 (all in thousands). From 1975 to 1983 the number of FFAP participants averaged only 88 thousand. The monthly average number of participants for 1970-76 is computed as an average from October of the prior calendar year to September, the span of the fiscal year since 1977.
²Includes all participating States and the District of Columbia only--the territories are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Population numbers used as denominators are the resident population—see Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106. For the persons living in poverty used as denominators, see Current Population Reports, Series P60-207.
³The pretransfer poverty population used as denominator is the number of all persons in families or living alone whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations.
⁴The first fiscal year in which food stamps were available nationwide.
⁵The fiscal year in which the food stamp purchase requirement was eliminated, on a phased in basis.
⁶Participation figures in column 1 from 1982 on include enrollment in Puerto Rico’s Nutrition Assistance Program (averaging 1.2 to 1.5 million persons a month under the nutrition assistance grant and higher figures in earlier years under Food Stamps) as shown in Table A-18.

Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, National Data Bank, the 1996 Green Book, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998," Current Population Reports, Series P60-207 and earlier years.

Table A-15 Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, Selected Years 1962 – 1999

Table A-15 Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, Selected Years 1962 – 1999

	Total Federal Cost			Administration ¹			Average Monthly Benefit per Person
Fiscal Year	Current Dollars [In millions]	1999 Dollars ³[In millions]	Benefits ²(Federal) In millions]	Federal [In millions]	State & Local [In millions]	Total Cost [In millions]	Current Dollars	1999 Dollars ³
1962.......................	241 ⁴	1,220	240 ⁴	1	NA	241	7.70	39.00
1965.......................	261 ⁴	1,274	259 ⁴	2	NA	261	6.40	31.20
1970.......................	866 ⁴	3,549	839 ⁴	27	20	886	10.60	43.40
1971.......................	1,897 ⁴	7,440	1,844 ⁴	53	40	1,937	13.50	52.90
1972 ⁵.....................	2,182 ⁴	8,264	2,109 ⁴	73	55	2,237	13.50	51.10
1973.......................	2,466 ⁴	8,970	2,386 ⁴	80	60	2,526	14.60	53.10
1974.......................	3,378 ⁴	11,317	3,254 ⁴	124	95	3,473	17.00	57.00
1975 ⁶.....................	5,074 ⁴	15,494	4,836 ⁴	238	180	5,254	19.60	59.80
1976.......................	5,659 ⁴	16,176	5,294 ⁴	365	275	5,934	23.90	68.30
1977.......................	5,475 ⁴	14,566	5,073 ⁴	402	300	5,775	24.00	63.90
1978.......................	5,558 ⁴	13,875	5,124 ⁴	434	325	5,883	25.70	64.20
1979 ⁷.....................	7,000 ⁴	16,067	6,485 ⁴	515	388	7,388	30.10	69.10
1980.......................	9,258 ⁴	19,105	8,755 ⁴	503	375	9,633	34.30	70.80
1981.......................	11,402 ⁴	21,394	10,724 ⁴	678	504	11,906	39.50	74.10
1982 ⁹.....................	11,140 ⁴	19,530	10,431 ⁴	709	557	11,697	39.00	68.40
1983 ⁹.....................	12,731 ⁴	21,348	11,953 ⁴	778	612	13,343	43.10	72.30
1984 ⁹.....................	12,446	20,018	11,475	971 ⁸	805	13,251	42.90	69.00
1985 ⁹.....................	12,573	19,520	11,530	1,043	871	13,444	45.10	70.00
1986 ⁹.....................	12,510	18,943	11,397	1,113	935	13,445	45.60	69.00
1987 ⁹.....................	12,512	18,423	11,317	1,195	996	13,508	45.90	67.60
1988 ⁹.....................	13,281	18,787	11,991	1,290	1,080	14,361	49.90	70.60
1989 ⁹.....................	13,904	18,769	12,572	1,332	1,101	15,005	51.90	70.10
1990 ⁹.....................	16,503	21,221	15,081	1,422	1,174	17,677	59.00	75.90
1991 ⁹.....................	19,790	24,225	18,274	1,516	1,247	21,037	63.90	78.20
1992 ⁹.....................	23,535	27,961	21,879	1,656	1,375	24,910	68.70	81.60
1993 ⁹.....................	24,733	28,525	23,017	1,716	1,572	26,305	68.00	78.40
1994 ⁹.....................	25,587	28,748	23,798	1,789	1,643	27,230	69.00	77.50
1995 ⁹.....................	25,776	28,177	23,859	1,917	1,748	27,524	71.40	78.00
1996 ⁹.....................	25,527	27,152	23,543	1,984	1,842	27,369	73.50	78.20
1997 ⁹.....................	22,661	23,469	20,692	1,969	1,904	24,565	71.30	73.80
1998 ⁹.....................	20,097	20,481	18,055	2,042	1,989	22,086	71.30	72.50
1999 ⁹.....................	NA	NA	16,959	1,923	NA	NA	72.20	72.20

¹Amounts include the Federal share of state administrative and employment and training costs (including administrative costs of Puerto Rico's block grant) and certain direct Federal administrative costs. They do not generally include approximately $60 million in food-stamp related federal administrative costs budgeted under a separate appropriation account (although estimates prior to 1989 do include estimates of food stamp related Federal administrative expenses paid out of other Agriculture Department accounts). State and local costs are estimated based on the known Federal shares and represent an estimate of all administrative expenses of participating states (including Puerto Rico).
²Benefit costs include the Food Stamp Program and Puerto Rico's nutritional assistance program and are based on unpublished data from the USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, National Data Bank (see Table A-17).
³Constant dollar adjustments to 1999 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index.
⁴From 1962 to 1983 total Federal cost includes the cost of the family food assistance program (FFAP) which was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. The FFAP amounts for the seven years shown from 1962 to 1974 were: $227, $227, $289, $321, $312, $255, and $205 (in millions). The average amount for the period for 1975 to 1983 was $32 million with the highest year being 1981 at $94 million.
⁵The first fiscal year in which benefit and eligibility rules were, by law, nationally uniform and indexed for inflation.
⁶The first fiscal year in which food stamps were available nationwide.
⁷The fiscal year in which the food stamp purchase requirement was eliminated, on a phased in basis.
⁸Beginning 1984 USDA took over from DHHS the administrative cost of certifying public assistance households for food stamps.
⁹Includes funding for Puerto Rico's nutrition assistance grant; earlier years beginning in 1975 include funding for Puerto Rico under the regular food stamp program. Average benefit figures do not reflect the lower benefits in Puerto Rico under its nutrition assistance program.
Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank; and the 1998 Green Book.

Table A-16. Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 1980 - 1998

Table A-16. Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 1980 - 1998 [In percent]

	Year
	1980 ¹	1982 ¹	1984 ¹	1986 ¹	1988 ¹	1990 ¹	1992 ¹	1994 ¹	1996 ¹	1998 ¹
With Gross Monthly Income:
Below the Federal Poverty Levels.....	87	95	93	93	92	92	92	90	91	90
Between the Poverty Levels and 130
Percent of the Poverty Levels............	10	5	6	6	8	8	8	9	8	9
Above 130 Percent of Poverty...........	2	*	1	*	*	*	*	1	1	1
With Earnings........................................	19	18	19	21	20	19	21	21	23	26
With Public Assistance Income ²...........	65	69	71	69	72	73	66	69	67	65
With AFDC/TANF Income...............	NA	42	42	38	42	43	40	38	37	31
With SSI Income...............................	18	18	18	18	20	19	19	23	24	28
With Children........................................	60	58	61	61	61	61	62	61	60	58
And Female Heads of Household......	NA	45	47	48	50	51	51	51	50	47
With No Spouse Present ³...........	NA	NA	NA	NA	39	37	44	43	43	41
With Elderly Members ⁴......................	23	20	22	20	19	18	15	16	16	18
With Elderly Female Heads of
Household ⁴.....................................	NA	14	16	15	14	11	9	11	NA	NA
Average Household Size........................	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.4

¹Data were gathered in August in the years 1980-84 and during the summer in the years from 1986 to 1994. Reports from 1995 to the present are based on fiscal year averages.
²Public assistance income includes AFDC, SSI, and general assistance.
³In 1996 female heads of household with children whose spouse is present comprised about 7 percent of all female heads of household with children.
⁴Elderly members and heads of household include those age 60 or older.
* Less than 0.5 percent.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 1998 and earlier years.

Table A-17. Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 – 1998

Table A-17. Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 – 1998 [Millions of dollars]

	1975	1980	1985	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
United States	$4,798	$8,721	$11,530	$15,081	$21,879	$23,796	$23,543	$18,055
Alabama	$108	$246	$318	$328	$451	$456	$440	$357
Alaska	7	27	25	25	41	53	54	50
Arizona	45	97	121	239	377	418	372	253
Arkansas	78	122	126	155	207	212	224	206
California	374	530	639	968	1,760	2,395	2,555	2,020
Colorado	48	71	94	156	219	224	210	157
Connecticut	38	59	62	72	131	152	175	161
Delaware	8	21	22	25	42	48	47	34
Dist. of Columbia	32	41	40	43	70	86	95	85
Florida	236	421	368	609	1,306	1,324	1,296	845
Georgia	144	264	290	382	627	695	703	538
Guam	3	15	18	15	28	22	27	34
Hawaii	26	60	93	81	121	153	196	178
Idaho	12	29	36	40	53	57	61	47
Illinois	259	394	713	835	1,070	1,069	1,034	844
Indiana	64	154	242	226	373	415	330	263
Iowa	29	54	107	109	143	145	141	109
Kansas	13	38	64	96	133	146	135	83
Kentucky	138	211	332	334	430	416	413	345
Louisiana	149	243	365	549	677	642	597	467
Maine	36	60	62	63	109	111	113	100
Maryland	79	140	171	203	316	350	362	282
Massachusetts	104	171	173	207	315	330	295	222
Michigan	132	263	541	663	846	834	773	588
Minnesota	43	62	105	165	234	229	221	181
Mississippi	115	199	264	352	421	397	376	254
Missouri	85	142	212	312	447	482	480	345
Montana	11	18	31	41	52	56	58	52
Nebraska	12	25	44	59	78	79	78	68
Nevada	11	15	22	41	74	88	91	63
New Hampshire	14	22	15	20	45	46	42	30
New Jersey	136	226	260	289	433	486	508	384
New Mexico	49	81	88	117	182	194	199	144
New York	233	726	938	1,086	1,586	1,945	2,054	1,505
North Carolina	139	234	237	282	461	490	547	421
North Dakota	5	9	16	25	35	34	32	25
Ohio	268	382	697	861	1,102	1,076	934	613
Oklahoma	40	73	134	186	275	305	308	231
Oregon	58	80	142	168	226	241	259	198
Pennsylvania	190	373	547	661	916	1,001	981	764
Puerto Rico	366	828	786	894	973	1,050	1,102	1,166
Rhode Island	19	31	35	42	69	76	78	57
South Carolina	126	181	194	240	297	303	299	264
South Dakota	8	18	26	35	42	41	41	37
Tennessee	126	282	280	372	562	600	542	437
Texas	319	514	701	1,429	2,103	2,320	2,140	1,425
Utah	13	22	40	71	96	94	87	75
Vermont	10	18	20	22	37	44	43	34
Virgin Islands	9	19	23	18	19	23	42	22
Virginia	70	158	189	247	406	448	450	307
Washington	71	90	140	229	344	386	426	308
West Virginia	57	87	159	192	255	261	252	224
Wisconsin	33	68	148	180	236	220	198	130
Wyoming	3	6	15	21	26	27	28	21

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the Food Stamp National Data Bank.

Table A-18. Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1998

Table A-18. Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1998 [In thousands]

									Percent Change
	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1998	1989-93	1993-98
United States	17,014	22,430	21,379	20,266	26,886	28,879	26,872	20,970	40	-26
Alabama	316	605	588	436	550	545	509	427	29	-24
Alaska	11	32	22	26	38	46	46	42	65	-2
Arizona	140	210	206	264	457	512	427	296	85	-39
Arkansas	213	305	253	227	277	283	274	256	25	-10
California	1,345	1,605	1,615	1,776	2,558	3,155	3,143	2,259	61	-21
Colorado	147	175	170	211	260	268	244	191	29	-30
Connecticut	178	175	145	114	202	223	223	196	90	-9
Delaware	26	56	40	30	51	59	58	46	95	-21
Dist. of Columbia	98	101	72	58	82	91	93	85	48	-1
Florida	728	957	630	668	1,404	1,474	1,371	991	125	-34
Georgia	459	654	567	485	754	830	793	632	67	-22
Guam	22	25	20	13	20	15	18	25	0	100
Hawaii	108	104	99	78	94	115	130	122	32	19
Idaho	33	64	59	61	72	82	80	62	30	-21
Illinois	922	984	1,110	990	1,156	1,189	1,105	923	19	-22
Indiana	196	405	406	285	448	518	390	313	74	-37
Iowa	108	163	203	168	192	196	177	141	17	-28
Kansas	62	108	119	128	175	192	172	119	47	-37
Kentucky	394	519	560	447	529	522	486	412	19	-22
Louisiana	425	574	644	725	779	756	670	537	7	-31
Maine	101	140	114	84	133	136	131	115	64	-17
Maryland	255	346	287	249	342	390	375	323	51	-14
Massachusetts	579	437	337	314	429	442	374	293	41	-34
Michigan	635	942	985	874	994	1,031	935	772	17	-25
Minnesota	158	202	228	245	309	318	295	220	29	-31
Mississippi	333	514	495	493	536	511	457	329	9	-39
Missouri	221	378	362	404	549	593	554	411	46	-30
Montana	27	47	58	56	66	71	71	62	26	-11
Nebraska	40	75	94	92	107	111	102	95	23	-16
Nevada	18	37	32	41	80	97	97	72	126	-23
New Hampshire	44	54	28	22	58	62	53	40	176	-34
New Jersey	493	608	464	353	494	545	540	425	50	-20
New Mexico	118	183	157	151	221	244	235	175	62	-28
New York	1,646	1,851	1,834	1,463	1,885	2,154	2,099	1,627	40	-20
North Carolina	428	605	474	390	597	630	631	528	61	-16
North Dakota	15	29	33	39	46	45	40	34	25	-30
Ohio	803	976	1,133	1,068	1,251	1,245	1,045	734	19	-42
Oklahoma	158	206	263	261	346	376	354	288	42	-22
Oregon	153	232	228	213	265	286	288	238	33	-16
Pennsylvania	843	1,071	1,032	916	1,137	1,208	1,124	907	29	-24
Puerto Rico	1,472	1,805	1,480	1,460	1,480	1,410	1,330	1,181	-1	-18
Rhode Island	79	88	69	57	87	94	91	72	62	-22
South Carolina	280	443	373	272	369	385	358	333	45	-16
South Dakota	26	46	48	50	55	53	49	45	11	-19
Tennessee	392	677	518	500	702	735	638	538	55	-30
Texas	823	1,226	1,263	1,634	2,454	2,726	2,372	1,636	63	-38
Utah	36	65	75	95	123	128	110	92	40	-31
Vermont	46	48	44	34	54	65	56	46	70	-21
Virgin Islands	25	34	32	16	16	20	31	17	8	-1
Virginia	240	432	360	333	495	547	538	397	61	-26
Washington	212	271	281	321	431	468	478	364	44	-21
West Virginia	199	252	278	259	310	321	300	269	24	-17
Wisconsin	175	269	363	291	334	330	283	193	16	-43
Wyoming	9	15	27	27	33	34	33	25	25	-26

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank.

Table A-19.Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1998

Table A-19.Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 1998 [In percent]

									Percent Change
	1977	1981	1985	1989	1992	1994	1996	1998	1989-93	1993-98
United States	7.1	9.0	8.3	7.6	9.9	10.5	9.6	7.3	37	-30
Alabama	8.4	15.4	14.8	10.8	13.3	12.9	11.9	9.8	24	-27
Alaska	2.7	7.7	4.1	4.8	6.4	7.6	7.6	6.9	51	-4
Arizona	5.8	7.5	6.5	7.3	11.8	12.3	9.6	6.3	68	-48
Arkansas	9.7	13.3	10.9	9.7	11.6	11.5	10.9	10.1	21	-14
California	6.0	6.6	6.1	6.1	8.3	10.1	9.9	6.9	51	-25
Colorado	5.5	5.9	5.3	6.5	7.5	7.3	6.4	4.8	19	-37
Connecticut	5.8	5.6	4.5	3.5	6.2	6.8	6.8	6.0	90	-9
Delaware	4.5	9.3	6.5	4.5	7.3	8.4	8.0	6.1	83	-26
Dist. of Columbia	14.5	15.9	11.4	9.4	14.1	16.0	17.2	16.3	60	9
Florida	8.2	9.4	5.5	5.3	10.4	10.6	9.5	6.6	107	-39
Georgia	8.8	11.7	9.5	7.6	11.2	11.8	10.8	8.3	55	-29
Hawaii	11.8	10.6	9.5	7.1	8.2	9.8	11.0	10.2	24	16
Idaho	3.8	6.7	5.9	6.1	6.7	7.2	6.7	5.1	18	-30
Illinois	8.1	8.6	9.7	8.7	10.0	10.1	9.3	7.7	16	-24
Indiana	3.6	7.4	7.4	5.2	7.9	9.0	6.7	5.3	69	-39
Iowa	3.7	5.6	7.2	6.1	6.9	6.9	6.2	4.9	15	-29
Kansas	2.7	4.5	4.9	5.2	6.9	7.5	6.6	4.5	43	-39
Kentucky	11.0	14.2	15.2	12.1	14.1	13.7	12.3	10.5	15	-25
Louisiana	10.6	13.4	14.6	17.0	18.2	17.6	15.4	12.3	7	-32
Maine	9.2	12.4	9.8	6.9	10.7	11.0	10.6	9.3	62	-17
Maryland	6.1	8.1	6.5	5.3	7.0	7.8	7.4	6.3	44	-17
Massachusetts	10.1	7.6	5.7	5.2	7.2	7.3	6.1	4.8	41	-35
Michigan	6.9	10.2	10.8	9.4	10.5	10.8	9.6	7.9	14	-27
Minnesota	4.0	4.9	5.5	5.7	6.9	7.0	6.3	4.7	24	-34
Mississippi	13.5	20.3	19.1	19.1	20.5	19.2	16.9	12.0	6	-41
Missouri	4.5	7.7	7.2	7.9	10.6	11.2	10.3	7.6	42	-33
Montana	3.6	5.9	7.1	7.0	8.1	8.3	8.1	7.1	20	-15
Nebraska	2.6	4.7	5.9	5.9	6.7	6.8	6.2	5.7	20	-19
Nevada	2.7	4.4	3.4	3.6	6.0	6.6	6.0	4.1	86	-39
New Hampshire	5.1	5.8	2.8	2.0	5.2	5.4	4.6	3.3	172	-38
New Jersey	6.7	8.2	6.1	4.6	6.3	6.9	6.8	5.2	47	-22
New Mexico	9.7	13.7	10.9	10.0	14.0	14.7	13.8	10.1	51	-33
New York	9.2	10.5	10.3	8.1	10.4	11.9	11.6	9.0	39	-21
North Carolina	7.5	10.2	7.6	5.9	8.7	8.9	8.6	7.0	52	-22
North Dakota	2.4	4.4	4.9	6.0	7.2	7.1	6.2	5.3	27	-30
Ohio	7.5	9.1	10.6	9.9	11.4	11.2	9.4	6.5	16	-43
Oklahoma	5.5	6.7	8.0	8.3	10.8	11.6	10.7	8.6	39	-25
Oregon	6.3	8.7	8.5	7.6	8.9	9.3	9.0	7.3	22	-22
Pennsylvania	7.1	9.0	8.8	7.7	9.5	10.0	9.3	7.6	28	-23
Rhode Island	8.3	9.3	7.2	5.7	8.7	9.4	9.2	7.3	63	-21
South Carolina	9.4	13.9	11.3	7.9	10.3	10.5	9.6	8.7	38	-20
South Dakota	3.8	6.6	6.9	7.2	7.6	7.3	6.6	6.1	7	-21
Tennessee	8.9	14.6	11.0	10.3	14.0	14.2	12.0	9.9	48	-35
Texas	6.2	8.3	7.8	9.7	13.9	14.8	12.5	8.3	52	-44
Utah	2.7	4.3	4.6	5.6	6.8	6.6	5.4	4.4	27	-38
Vermont	9.4	9.4	8.2	6.1	9.4	11.1	9.6	7.7	65	-23
Virginia	4.6	7.9	6.3	5.4	7.8	8.4	8.1	5.8	52	-29
Washington	5.6	6.4	6.4	6.8	8.4	8.8	8.6	6.4	30	-27
West Virginia	10.4	12.9	14.6	14.3	17.1	17.7	16.5	14.9	24	-16
Wisconsin	3.8	5.7	7.6	6.0	6.7	6.5	5.5	3.7	11	-45
Wyoming	2.1	3.0	5.4	6.0	7.2	7.2	6.9	5.3	23	-27

Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of food stamp recipients in each State during the particular fiscal year expressed as a percent of the total resident population as of July 1 of that year. The numerator is from Table A-18.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Table A-20. Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments 1974 – 1998

Table A-20. Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments 1974 – 1998 [In thousands]

		Eligibility Category				Type of Recipient
			Blind and Disabled				Adults
Date	Total	Aged	Total	Blind	Disabled	Children ¹	Age 18-64	65 or Older
Dec 1974	3,996	2,286	1,710	75	1,636	71	1,503	2,422
Dec 1975	4,314	2,307	2,007	74	1,933	128	1,678	2,508
Dec 1976	4,236	2,148	2,088	76	2,012	153	1,686	2,397
Dec 1977	4,238	2,051	2,187	77	2,109	175	1,709	2,353
Dec 1978	4,217	1,968	2,249	77	2,172	197	1,716	2,304
Dec 1979	4,150	1,872	2,278	77	2,201	212	1,692	2,246
Dec 1980	4,142	1,808	2,334	78	2,256	229	1,693	2,221
Dec 1981	4,019	1,678	2,341	79	2,262	230	1,668	2,121
Dec 1982	3,858	1,549	2,309	77	2,231	229	1,618	2,011
Dec 1983	3,901	1,515	2,386	79	2,307	236	1,662	2,003
Dec 1984	4,029	1,530	2,499	81	2,419	249	1,743	2,037
Dec 1985	4,138	1,504	2,634	82	2,551	265	1,841	2,031
Dec 1986	4,269	1,473	2,796	83	2,713	280	1,972	2,018
Dec 1987	4,385	1,455	2,930	83	2,846	289	2,081	2,015
Dec 1988	4,464	1,433	3,030	83	2,948	290	2,168	2,006
Dec 1989	4,593	1,439	3,154	83	3,071	296	2,271	2,026
Dec 1990	4,817	1,454	3,363	84	3,279	340	2,418	2,059
Dec 1991	5,118	1,465	3,654	85	3,569	439	2,600	2,080
Dec 1992	5,566	1,471	4,095	85	4,010	624	2,843	2,100
Dec 1993	5,984	1,475	4,509	85	4,424	771	3,101	2,113
Dec 1994	6,296	1,466	4,830	85	4,745	893	3,284	2,119
Dec 1995	6,514	1,446	5,068	84	4,984	974	3,425	2,115
Dec 1996	6,614	1,413	5,201	82	5,119	1,018	3,506	2,090
Dec 1997	6,495	1,362	5,133	81	5,052	943	3,499	2,054
Dec 1998	6,566	1,332	5,234	80	5,154	928	3,605	2,033

¹Includes students 18-21; there were 50,661 students 18-21 in December 1997 and 40,798 in December 1998.
Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

Table A-21. Federal and State SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 1998

Table A-21. Federal and State SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 1998 ¹[In millions of current and 1998 dollars]

Calendar Year	Total Benefits		Federal Payments	State Supplementation			Administrative Costs (fiscal year)
Calendar Year	1998 ²Dollars	Current Dollars	Federal Payments	Total	Federally Administered	State Administered	Administrative Costs (fiscal year)
1974.............	$16,475	$5,246	$3,833	$1,413	$1,264	$149	$285
1975.............	17,049	5,878	4,314	1,565	1,403	162	399
1976.............	16,646	6,066	4,512	1,554	1,388	166	500
1977.............	16,264	6,306	4,703	1,603	1,431	172	NA
1978.............	15,822	6,552	4,881	1,671	1,491	180	539
1979.............	15,584	7,075	5,279	1,797	1,590	207	610
1980.............	15,727	7,941	5,866	2,074	1,848	226	668
1981.............	15,546	8,593	6,518	2,076	1,839	237	718
1982.............	15,313	8,981	6,907	2,074	1,798	276	779
1983.............	15,390	9,404	7,423	1,982	1,711	270	830
1984.............	16,271	10,372	8,281	2,091	1,792	299	864
1985.............	16,755	11,060	8,777	2,283	1,973	311	953
1986.............	17,967	12,081	9,498	2,583	2,243	340	1,022
1987.............	18,583	12,951	10,029	2,922	2,563	359	976
1988.............	18,995	13,786	10,734	3,052	2,671	381	975
1989.............	19,691	14,980	11,606	3,374	2,955	419	1,051
1990.............	20,701	16,599	12,894	3,705	3,239	466	1,075
1991.............	22,169	18,524	14,765	3,759	3,231	529	1,257
1992.............	25,830	22,233	18,247	3,986	3,435	550	1,538
1993.............	27,701	24,557	20,722	3,835	3,270	566	1,467
1994.............	28,461	25,877	22,175	3,701	3,116	585	1,775
1995.............	29,549	27,628	23,919	3,708	3,118	590	1,973
1996.............	29,911	28,792	25,265	3,527	2,988	539	1,949
1997.............	29,505	29,052	25,457	3,595	2,913	682	2,055
1998.............	30,216	30,216	26,405	3,812	3,003	808	2,304

¹Payments and adjustments during the respective year but not necessarily accrued for that year.
² Data adjusted for inflation by ASPE using the CPI-U-X1.
Source: Social Security Administration, Office of SSI, and Office of Budget, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, 1998 (available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

Table A-22. Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 1998

Table A-22. Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 1998

Calendar Year	Total ¹		Federal Payments	State Supplementation
Calendar Year	1998 Dollars	Current Dollars	Federal Payments	Total	Federally Administered	State Administered
1974.............	$447	$135	$108	$64	$71	$35
1975.............	318	112	92	66	69	45
1980.............	302	158	133	89	91	76
1984.............	329	211	187	93	93	93
1985.............	329	219	193	99	99	102
1986.............	343	232	202	107	108	101
1987.............	344	242	208	117	118	110
1988.............	344	253	219	118	118	118
1989.............	347	267	230	126	126	127
1990.............	347	283	244	132	131	136
1991.............	353	297	260	125	122	143
1992.............	379	328	292	124	121	147
1993.............	379	337	306	112	107	150
1994.............	370	338	310	105	99	152
1995.............	374	350	322	110	103	164
1996.............	371	359	333	108	103	145
1997.............	375	369	342	99	102	86
1998.............	379	379	349	103	104	102

	Number of Persons Receiving Payments (in thousands)
			State Supplementation
	Total	Federal	Total	Federally Administered	State Administered
Jan1974......	3,249	2,956	1,839	1,480	358
Dec1975......	4,360	3,893	1,987	1,684	303
Dec1980......	4,194	3,682	1,934	1,685	249
Dec1984......	4,094	3,699	1,875	1,607	268
Dec1985......	4,200	3,799	1,916	1,661	255
Dec1986......	4,347	3,922	2,003	1,723	279
Dec1987......	4,458	4,019	2,079	1,807	272
Dec1988......	4,541	4,089	2,155	1,885	270
Dec1989......	4,673	4,206	2,224	1,950	275
Dec1990......	4,888	4,412	2,344	2,058	286
Dec1991......	5,200	4,730	2,512	2,204	308
Dec1992......	5,647	5,202	2,684	2,372	313
Dec1993......	6,065	5,636	2,850	2,536	314
Dec1994......	6,377	5,965	2,950	2,628	322
Dec1995......	6,576	6,194	2,817	2,518	300
Dec1996......	6,677	6,326	2,732	2,421	310
Dec1997......	6,565	6,212	3,029	2,372	657
Dec1998......	6,649	6,289	3,072	2,412	661

¹Total is a weighted average of the Federal plus State average benefit, the Federal-only average benefit, and State-only average benefit.
Note: The numerators for these averages are given in Table A-21. Averages were computed by DHHS. Data adjusted for inflation using the monthly values of the CPI-U-X1 index.
Source: Number of persons receiving payments obtained from Social Security Administration, Office of SSI, and Office of Budget.

Table A-23. SSI Recipiency Rates, 1974 - 1998

Table A-23. SSI Recipiency Rates, 1974 - 1998 [In percent]

			Elderly Recipients (Persons 65 & Older) as a Percent of
	All Recipients as a Percent Of Total Population ¹	Child Recipients as a Percent of All Children ¹	All Persons 65 & Older ¹	All Elderly Poor ²	Pretransfer Elderly Poor ³
Dec 1974	1.9	0.1	10.8	78.5	NA
Dec 1975	2.0	0.2	10.9	75.6	NA
Dec 1976	1.9	0.2	10.2	72.4	NA
Dec 1977	1.9	0.3	9.7	74.1	NA
Dec 1978	1.9	0.3	9.3	71.5	NA
Dec 1979	1.8	0.3	8.8	61.3	66.8
Dec 1980	1.8	0.4	8.6	57.5	64.7
Dec 1981	1.7	0.4	8.0	55.0	63.3
Dec 1982	1.7	0.4	7.4	53.6	62.3
Dec 1983	1.7	0.4	7.3	55.2	61.9
Dec 1984	1.7	0.4	7.2	61.2	66.3
Dec 1985	1.7	0.4	7.1	58.7	64.5
Dec 1986	1.8	0.4	6.9	57.9	63.4
Dec 1987	1.8	0.5	6.7	56.5	64.7
Dec 1988	1.8	0.5	6.6	57.6	64.3
Dec 1989	1.9	0.5	6.5	60.3	64.6
Dec 1990	1.9	0.5	6.5	56.3	63.3
Dec 1991	2.0	0.7	6.5	55.0	61.1
Dec 1992	2.2	0.9	6.5	53.5	59.8
Dec 1993	2.3	1.1	6.4	56.3	63.3
Dec 1994	2.4	1.3	6.4	57.9	65.6
Dec 1995	2.5	1.4	6.4	63.7	71.4
Dec 1996	2.5	1.5	6.2	61.0	69.3
Dec 1997	2.4	1.3	6.0	60.8	69.1
Dec 1998	2.4	1.3	5.9	60.0	69.1

¹Population numbers used for the denominators are Census resident population estimates adjusted to the December date by averaging the July 1 population of the current year with the July 1 population of the following year; see Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106 and Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to November 1, 1999, Internet release date December 23, 1999 (Available online at http://www.census.gov)..
²For the number of persons (65 years of age and older living in poverty) used as the denominator, see Current Population Reports, Series P60-207.
³The pretransfer poverty population used as the denominator is the number of all elderly persons living in elderly-only units whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations.
Notes: Numerators for these ratios are from Table A-20. Rates computed by DHHS.
Source: 1994 Green Book and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 1998," Current Population Reports, Series P60-207, and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).

Table A-24. Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments And State Supplementary Payments Calendar Year 1998

Table A-24. Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments And State Supplementary Payments Calendar Year 1998 (In thousands)

				State Supplementation
State	Total	Total Federal	Federal SSI	Federally Administered	State Administered
Total	$30,216,345	$29,408,200	$26,404,793	$3,003,415	$808,137
Alabama	651,471	650,707	650,707	—	764
Alaska	45,343	32,371	32,371	—	12,972
Arizona	329,702	329,424	329,424	—	278
Arkansas	340,061	340,061	340,061	—	—
California	5,768,528	5,768,528	3,779,934	1,988,594	—
Colorado	301,225	231,074	231,074	—	70,151
Connecticut	296,289	202,936	202,936	—	93,353
Delaware	48,497	48,497	47,573	924	—
District of Columbia	88,840	88,840	85,872	2,968	—
Florida	1,533,505	1,515,121	1,515,113	8	18,384
Georgia	767,111	767,108	767,105	6	—
Hawaii	93,685	93,685	80,448	13,237	—
Idaho	81,929	71,203	71,203	—	10,726
Illinois	1,208,012	1,179,686	1,179,686	—	28,326
Indiana	381,627	378,051	378,051	—	3,576
Iowa	174,163	157,371	154,488	2,883	16,792
Kansas	148,472	148,472	148,472	—	—
Kentucky	724,330	707,721	707,721	—	16,609
Louisiana	740,451	739,921	739,921	—	530
Maine	114,889	106,519	106,519	—	8,370
Maryland	388,378	383,379	383,364	15	4,999
Massachusetts	772,019	772,019	607,934	164,085	—
Michigan	1,069,006	975,334	947,702	27,632	93,672
Minnesota	315,182	261,885	261,885	—	53,297
Mississippi	527,866	527,866	527,858	8	—
Missouri	484,514	459,114	459,114	—	25,400
Montana	55,291	55,291	54,484	807	—
Nebraska	89,160	82,961	82,961	—	6,199
Nevada	95,129	95,129	90,587	4,542	—
New Hampshire	56,854	45,645	45,645	—	11,209
New Jersey	645,860	645,860	568,483	77,377	—
New Mexico	182,866	182,611	182,611	—	255
New York	3,055,261	3,055,261	2,521,889	533,372	—
North Carolina	826,014	716,607	716,607	—	109,407
North Dakota	32,034	30,118	30,118	—	1,916
Ohio	1,132,405	1,132,405	1,132,392	13	—
Oklahoma	330,169	292,899	292,899	—	37,270
Oregon	226,476	206,302	206,302	—	20,174
Pennsylvania	1,306,158	1,306,158	1,177,644	128,514	—
Rhode Island	117,408	117,408	96,576	20,832	—
South Carolina	433,310	419,527	419,527	—	13,783
South Dakota	51,580	49,647	49,641	6	1,933
Tennessee	670,197	670,197	670,196	1	—
Texas	1,541,643	1,541,643	1,541,643	—	—
Utah	86,647	86,647	86,592	55	—
Vermont	50,900	50,900	41,488	9,412	—
Virginia	546,486	525,325	525,325	—	21,161
Washington	453,744	453,455	425,055	28,400	289
West Virginia	312,599	312,599	312,599	—	—
Wisconsin	496,403	370,739	370,739	—	125,664
Wyoming	23,926	23,248	23,248	—	678
Other: N. Mariana Islands	2,719	2,719	2,719	—	—
Unknown	6	286	-280 ¹	—	—

¹Represents recovered State payments not yet credited to the states.
Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, 1999.

Table A-25. SSI Recipiency Rates by State And Program Type for 1979 and 1998

Table A-25. SSI Recipiency Rates by State And Program Type for 1979 and 1998 [In percent]

	Total Recipiency Rate			Rate for Adults 18-64			Rate for Adults 65 & Over
	1979	1998	Percent Change 1979-98	1979	1998	Percent Change 1979-98	1979	1998	Percent Change 1979-98
Total	1.9	2.4	31	1.3	2.2	74	9.0	5.9	-34
Alabama	3.6	3.8	6	1.8	3.3	78	21.0	8.7	-59
Alaska	0.8	1.3	67	0.5	1.3	144	14.0	5.5	-61
Arizona	1.1	1.7	50	0.9	1.6	80	5.0	3.4	-32
Arkansas	3.5	3.5	1	1.9	3.1	65	17.1	7.6	-56
California	3.0	3.2	6	2.1	2.5	23	16.4	12.7	-23
Colorado	1.1	1.4	29	0.8	1.3	75	6.7	3.5	-48
Connecticut	0.8	1.4	91	0.6	1.5	135	2.7	2.5	-6
Delaware	1.2	1.6	33	0.9	1.4	54	5.4	2.6	-52
District of Columbia	2.3	3.8	65	1.9	3.3	74	8.6	7.2	-16
Florida	1.8	2.4	36	1.1	2.0	72	6.2	4.9	-22
Georgia	2.9	2.6	-9	1.9	2.2	19	17.7	8.3	-53
Hawaii	1.1	1.6	57	0.7	1.3	88	7.6	5.7	-25
Idaho	0.8	1.4	80	0.6	1.5	140	3.8	2.1	-44
Illinois	1.1	2.1	96	1.0	2.1	123	4.3	3.9	-9
Indiana	0.8	1.5	102	0.6	1.6	161	3.3	1.9	-43
Iowa	0.9	1.4	60	0.6	1.6	153	3.5	1.9	-45
Kansas	0.9	1.4	56	0.6	1.5	131	3.5	2.0	-42
Kentucky	2.5	4.4	72	1.8	4.5	151	12.5	7.9	-37
Louisiana	3.4	4.0	19	2.0	3.6	76	20.1	9.3	-54
Maine	2.0	2.3	19	1.4	2.5	81	8.6	3.7	-56
Maryland	1.2	1.7	46	0.9	1.5	58	5.4	4.2	-22
Massachusetts	2.2	2.7	21	1.3	2.6	106	10.8	5.8	-46
Michigan	1.3	2.2	72	1.1	2.3	112	5.9	3.1	-47
Minnesota	0.8	1.3	66	0.6	1.4	146	3.7	2.6	-30
Mississippi	4.5	4.9	9	2.4	4.3	76	26.0	12.9	-50
Missouri	1.8	2.1	17	1.1	2.1	93	7.9	3.4	-57
Montana	0.9	1.6	77	0.7	1.7	138	3.8	2.2	-41
Nebraska	0.9	1.3	45	0.6	1.3	108	3.4	1.9	-44
Nevada	0.8	1.3	59	0.5	1.2	124	5.9	3.5	-41
New Hampshire	0.6	1.0	64	0.4	1.0	132	2.5	1.4	-45
New Jersey	1.1	1.8	57	0.9	1.5	74	4.7	4.5	-4
New Mexico	2.0	2.6	33	1.4	2.4	76	12.4	7.6	-39
New York	2.1	3.3	58	1.6	2.8	79	8.3	9.0	8
North Carolina	2.4	2.6	7	1.6	2.2	37	13.6	6.7	-51
North Dakota	1.0	1.3	35	0.6	1.3	130	5.1	2.6	-48
Ohio	1.1	2.2	100	1.0	2.4	141	4.2	2.5	-39
Oklahoma	2.3	2.2	-6	1.3	2.1	55	11.6	4.6	-60
Oregon	0.9	1.5	74	0.7	1.6	122	3.3	2.6	-21
Pennsylvania	1.4	2.3	64	1.1	2.3	108	5.0	3.5	-30
Rhode Island	1.6	2.6	66	1.1	2.6	144	6.4	4.9	-24
South Carolina	2.7	2.9	6	1.8	2.5	38	17.0	7.2	-58
South Dakota	1.1	1.8	57	0.7	1.7	140	5.0	3.3	-34
Tennessee	2.9	3.1	10	1.9	3.0	59	14.8	7.0	-53
Texas	1.9	2.1	10	1.0	1.6	69	12.7	8.2	-36
Utah	0.6	1.0	75	0.5	1.1	111	3.0	1.9	-36
Vermont	1.8	2.1	21	1.3	2.2	66	8.1	4.5	-44
Virginia	1.5	2.0	30	1.0	1.6	60	8.5	5.2	-39
Washington	1.2	1.7	47	1.0	1.8	81	4.8	3.4	-29
West Virginia	2.1	3.9	83	1.9	4.3	133	8.0	5.0	-37
Wisconsin	1.4	1.7	19	1.0	1.7	78	6.5	2.6	-61
Wyoming	0.4	1.2	184	0.3	1.3	349	2.7	1.7	-38

Note: Recipiency rates for 1998 are the ratios of the number of SSI recipients (in the respective age groups) as of the month of December to the population in the respective age group as of the month of July; calculations by DHHS. The 1979 rates are based on the average number of recipients during the year.
Source: Social Security Administration and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Table A-26. SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 – 1998

Table A-26. SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 – 1998 [In percent]

	1975	1980	1985	1990	1992	1994 ²	1996 ²	1998 ²
Total ¹	2.0	1.8	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.4
Alabama	4.0	3.4	3.3	3.3	3.4	3.8	3.9	3.8
Alaska	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.3
Arizona	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.4	1.7	1.7	1.7
Arkansas	4.1	3.4	3.1	3.2	3.5	3.8	3.8	3.5
California	3.1	3.0	2.6	2.9	3.1	3.2	3.3	3.2
Colorado	1.4	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.4
Connecticut	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.4
Delaware	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.6
District of Columbia	2.2	2.4	2.5	2.7	3.0	3.5	3.7	3.8
Florida	1.9	1.8	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.3	2.4	2.4
Georgia	3.3	2.8	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.8	2.7	2.6
Hawaii	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.3	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.6
Idaho	1.1	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.4
Illinois	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.6	1.8	2.2	2.3	2.1
Indiana	0.8	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.5
Iowa	1.0	0.9	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.4
Kansas	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.0	1.1	1.4	1.5	1.4
Kentucky	2.8	2.6	2.7	3.1	3.4	4.1	4.4	4.4
Louisiana	3.9	3.2	2.9	3.2	3.5	4.1	4.2	4.0
Maine	2.3	1.9	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.4	2.2	2.3
Maryland	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.7
Massachusetts	2.3	2.2	1.9	2.0	2.2	2.6	2.7	2.7
Michigan	1.3	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.7	2.2	2.2	2.2
Minnesota	1.0	0.8	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.3
Mississippi	5.2	4.4	4.3	4.4	4.7	5.2	5.2	4.9
Missouri	2.1	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.1	2.2	2.1
Montana	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.6
Nebraska	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.3	1.3
Nevada	1.0	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.3	1.4	1.3
New Hampshire	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.0
New Jersey	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.8	1.8	1.8
New Mexico	2.3	1.9	1.8	2.1	2.3	2.6	2.7	2.6
New York	2.2	2.1	2.0	2.3	2.6	3.1	3.3	3.3
North Carolina	2.7	2.4	2.2	2.2	2.4	2.6	2.7	2.6
North Dakota	1.3	1.0	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.3
Ohio	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.4	1.6	2.1	2.3	2.2
Oklahoma	3.0	2.2	1.8	1.9	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.2
Oregon	1.1	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.5	1.5	1.5
Pennsylvania	1.2	1.4	1.4	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.2	2.3
Rhode Island	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.3	2.6	2.6
South Carolina	2.8	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.7	3.0	3.0	2.9
South Dakota	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.5	1.6	1.8	1.9	1.8
Tennessee	3.2	2.8	2.7	2.9	3.1	3.4	3.4	3.1
Texas	2.2	1.8	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.2	2.1
Utah	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.0
Vermont	1.9	1.7	1.8	1.8	2.0	2.2	2.2	2.1
Virginia	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.7	1.9	2.0	2.0
Washington	1.5	1.1	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.7
West Virginia	2.4	2.1	2.2	2.6	2.9	3.5	3.8	3.9
Wisconsin	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.8	1.9	2.2	1.8	1.7
Wyoming	0.7	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.2

¹The number of SSI recipients used to calculate the total recipiency rate includes a certain number of recipients whose State is unknown. For 1975, 1985, 1992, and 1998, the numbers of unknown (in thousands) were 256, 14, 71, and 3 respectively.
²For 1975-92 the percentages are calculated as the average number of monthly SSI recipients over the total population of each State in July of that year. For 1994-1998 the number of recipients is from the month of December; calculations by DHHS.
Source: Social Security Administration and Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Appendix B: Additional Non-Marital Birth Data

Table B-1. Percentage of Births that are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups by Race

	White					Black
	Under Age 15	Age 15 - 17	Age 18 - 19	All Teens	All Women	Under Age 15	Age 15 - 17	Age 18 – 19	All Teens	All Women
1940	44.4	NA	NA	7.2	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1941	44.9	NA	NA	7.0	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1942	40.5	NA	NA	6.4	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1943	45.2	NA	NA	6.5	1.6	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1944	41.3	NA	NA	8.4	2.0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1945	50.7	NA	NA	10.0	2.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1946	52.4	NA	NA	8.4	2.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1947	45.1	NA	NA	6.6	1.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1948	39.9	10.3	4.6	6.3	1.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1949	40.4	10.0	4.5	6.1	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1950	41.9	10.2	4.8	6.4	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1951	34.9	9.7	4.4	5.9	1.6	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1952	40.4	9.6	4.4	6.0	1.6	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1953	43.1	9.6	4.5	6.1	1.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1954	36.8	10.2	4.9	6.5	1.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1955	42.1	10.2	4.9	6.6	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1956	42.6	10.2	4.8	6.5	1.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1957	41.5	10.4	4.7	6.5	2.0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1958	45.3	10.8	4.9	6.8	2.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1959	46.7	11.4	5.2	7.2	2.2	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1960	47.5	11.7	5.4	7.4	2.3	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1961	49.9	12.4	6.0	7.9	2.5	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1962	48.3	13.4	6.1	8.2	2.8	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1963	50.3	15.1	7.0	9.4	3.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1964	52.3	16.0	7.6	10.4	3.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1965	57.3	17.3	9.1	11.7	4.0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1966	52.5	19.5	9.9	12.6	4.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1967	61.6	21.0	11.2	14.2	4.9	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1968	61.0	23.4	12.7	16.1	5.3	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
1969	57.0	24.0	12.9	16.6	5.5	91.7	72.1	48.3	60.0	34.9
1970	57.9	25.2	13.5	17.5	5.7	93.5	76.0	52.1	64.0	37.6
1971	60.5	25.2	13.2	17.4	5.6	95.0	79.6	56.0	68.1	40.5
1972	59.0	26.4	13.7	18.5	6.0	96.4	81.0	59.0	70.7	43.9
1973	65.2	27.6	14.3	19.6	6.4	96.4	82.6	60.4	72.1	45.7
1974	65.3	29.4	15.0	20.8	6.5	97.4	84.8	63.8	74.7	47.1
1975	71.0	33.0	17.2	23.5	7.3	98.4	87.4	67.6	77.8	48.8
1976	69.3	35.7	18.8	25.4	7.7	99.1	89.7	70.9	80.5	50.3
1977	72.8	38.9	21.0	27.8	8.2	98.8	90.6	74.6	82.6	51.7
1978	73.1	40.1	22.5	29.1	8.7	97.2	90.9	76.5	83.5	53.2
1979	75.0	42.4	24.3	30.8	9.4	99.4	92.9	78.9	85.7	54.7
1980	75.4	45.4	27.1	33.6	11.2	98.6	93.1	79.9	86.2	56.1
1981	76.5	48.0	28.7	35.5	11.8	98.9	93.9	81.3	87.2	56.9
1982	77.7	50.1	30.3	37.2	12.3	98.4	94.2	82.4	87.9	57.7
1983	79.9	53.1	32.7	39.8	12.9	98.5	95.1	84.4	89.4	59.2
1984	80.8	55.4	35.1	42.2	13.6	98.6	95.3	85.4	90.0	60.3
1985	82.4	58.0	38.2	45.3	14.7	98.8	95.6	86.2	90.6	61.2
1986	83.6	61.3	41.7	48.8	15.9	99.0	95.7	86.9	91.1	62.4
1987	84.6	64.6	44.4	51.8	16.9	99.1	96.1	87.6	91.7	63.4
1988	86.5	66.2	47.3	54.1	18.0	98.9	96.4	88.5	92.3	64.7
1989	84.7	67.2	49.5	55.7	19.2	98.4	96.1	89.0	92.3	59.2
1990	83.6	67.9	50.8	56.8	20.4	98.5	95.6	89.4	92.2	59.8
1991	75.5	69.7	53.2	59.0	21.8	98.1	95.7	89.8	92.5	60.3
1992	76.2	70.6	54.9	60.6	22.6	97.6	95.6	90.4	92.8	68.1
1993	83.2	71.7	57.2	62.7	23.6	98.1	95.7	90.8	93.1	68.7
1994	90.4	77.5	61.9	68.0	25.4	99.1	97.8	93.4	95.5	70.4
1995	88.8	77.4	62.1	68.0	25.3	99.1	97.7	93.2	95.3	69.9
1996	90.1	78.8	63.3	69.2	25.7	99.1	97.9	93.6	95.6	69.8
1997	92.2	81.6	65.3	71.4	25.8	99.4	98.3	93.8	95.8	69.2
1998	94.0	82.7	66.5	72.4	26.3	99.5	98.3	93.9	95.7	69.0

Notes: Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940 - 1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Data for 1998 are preliminary.
Sources: Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, "Births to Unmarried Mothers: United States, 1980 - 1992," Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21, No. 53, 1995; Ventura, S.J., Martin, J.A., Curtin, S.C., Mathews, T.J., National Center for Health Statistics, "Births: Final Data for 1997," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(18), 1999; and Martin, J.A., Smith, B.L, Mathews, T.J., Ventura, S.J., National Center for Health Statistics, "Births and Deaths: Preliminary Data for 1998," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47(25), 1999.

Microsoft Word version of report (contains raw data for tables)

(All files below are in Microsoft Word format)

Files

Appendix A. Program Data (pdf, 35.33 KB)

toc-xsum.doc (doc, 56.5 KB)

chap1.doc (doc, 147 KB)

chap2.doc (doc, 1.36 MB)

chap3.doc (doc, 1.36 MB)

apndtext.doc (doc, 56.5 KB)

f-1.doc (doc, 951 KB)

f-2.doc (doc, 230.5 KB)

f-3.doc (doc, 48.5 KB)

f-4.doc (doc, 65.5 KB)

f-5.doc (doc, 36.5 KB)

f-6-7.doc (doc, 154.5 KB)

t-1.doc (doc, 50 KB)

t-2.doc (doc, 158 KB)

t-3.doc (doc, 107 KB)

t-4.doc (doc, 55.5 KB)

t-5.doc (doc, 52.5 KB)

t-6.doc (doc, 43 KB)

t-7.doc (doc, 56 KB)

t-8.doc (doc, 104.5 KB)

t-9.doc (doc, 186.5 KB)

t-10.doc (doc, 233 KB)

t-11.doc (doc, 69 KB)

t-12.doc (doc, 136 KB)

t-13.doc (doc, 150 KB)

t-14.doc (doc, 218.5 KB)

t-15.doc (doc, 181.5 KB)

t-16.doc (doc, 117.5 KB)

t-17.doc (doc, 179 KB)

t-18.doc (doc, 248 KB)

t-19.doc (doc, 61.5 KB)

t-20.doc (doc, 53.5 KB)

t-21.doc (doc, 55 KB)

t-22.doc (doc, 61.5 KB)

t-23.doc (doc, 34 KB)

t-24.doc (doc, 55 KB)

t-25.doc (doc, 84 KB)

t-26.doc (doc, 160.5 KB)

tblb-1.doc (doc, 74.5 KB)

Topics

Key Indicators | Welfare, Welfare Reform, & TANF | Poverty & Income Dynamics

Product Type

Report to Congress

Populations

Children