Rising income leads to higher expenditures on health . Hall and Jones (2004) show that the rising share of health care in GDP may reflect the natural course of economic growth: as individuals get richer, one of the most valuable and productive opportunities for spending is to purchase better health and longer lives.
Increased spending on health could stimulate job growth in certain sectors . Pauly (2003) argues that rising health care spending naturally results in rapid growth in the health care and related sectors, and in employment and incomes for workers in those sectors. Anecdotal evidence supports this hypothesis.
There are no large scale studies that directly examine the detrimental effect of health care cost growth on aggregate economic outcomes such as per capita income, inflation, and unemployment rate. However, there is evidence of a negative effect on employment, which we discuss in a subsequent sub-section. Anecdotal evidence from several newspaper
This section presents findings from a systematic review of peer-reviewed academic papers, anecdotal evidence published in the popular press, and findings from secondary data published by government agencies and other research institutions. The literature review was carried out in the following three steps – developing key words or search terms,
The Effect of Health Care Cost Growth on the U.S. Economy. 2. Conceptual Overview of Potential Mechnisms Through Which Health Care Inflation Could Affect the Us Economy
Not surprisingly, the dramatic increases in health care spending and the share of GDP devoted to health care have raised concerns about the negative impact of health care cost inflation on the U.S. economy. In an era of global economic markets, these concerns are reinforced by the status of the U.S. as a spending outlier among competing nations.
The rate of growth in health care spending in the U.S. has outpaced the growth rate in the gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, and population for many years. Between 1940 and 1990, the annual rate of growth in real health spending per capita ranged from 3.6% in the 1960s to 6.5% in the 1990s. Correspondingly, the share of GDP accounted fo
Final Report Prepared by: Neeraj Sood, Arkadipta Ghosh, and Jose J. Escarse September, 2007 Prepared for: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)
Characteristic Alabama Florida Michigan New Jersey APPENDIX TABLE 1 LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF THE PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING MEDICAID COVERAGE WHEN ADULTS LEAVE AFDC (Adults in HMOs Excluded) Estimated Odds Ratio a
Czajka, John L. “Analysis of Children’s Health Insurance Patterns: Findings from the SIPP.” Washington, DC: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., 1999. Dubay, Lisa, and Genevieve Kenney. “Effects of Medicaid Expansions on Insurance Coverage of Children.” Future of Children , vol. 6, no. 1, 1996, pp. 152-61. Ellwood, David T., and E. Ka
Study findings add to the body of evidence--that declines in the welfare caseload which began in 1995 are likely to have a noticeable effect on state Medicaid programs in the future, in terms of overall enrollment, caseload mix, and per capita expenditure levels. The findings also point to problems of continuity in Medicaid enrollment, which may b
Welfare Leavers and Medicaid Dynamics: Five States in 1995. How Much Turnover and Churning Occurs in Medicaid Caseloads?
A final study objective was to look at the extent to which turnover and churning in each state’s Medicaid caseload might be contributing to enrollment declines. As background for understanding these additional measures, it is useful to review the different ways Medicaid enrollment is counted. Most analyses of trends in Medicaid enrollment rely o
Welfare Leavers and Medicaid Dynamics: Five States in 1995. Were the Welfare Leavers Staying on Medicaid Different From Those Who Left?
Policymakers and Medicaid officials are understandably interested in whether welfare leavers who also leave Medicaid are different from those who remain enrolled in Medicaid. In particular, they want to know whether welfare leavers who continue on Medicaid are likely to be more costly than those who leave Medicaid would have been. Differences in e
A key part of our analysis was to see what happened to the Medicaid status of individuals leaving AFDC. We focused on those who left from February through July 1995, so that we could follow the Medicaid status for six months after AFDC exit. Six months seemed to us a sufficient time to assess whether Medicaid coverage continued. We counted persons
Consistent with the national pattern, all five study states experienced a decline in Medicaid enrollment for children and adults during 1995, although the extent of the decline varied (Table 3). New Jersey’s Medicaid enrollment in December was only 0.8 percent below its January level, compared to a 4.2 difference in Florida by year end. The othe
Welfare Leavers and Medicaid Dynamics: Five States in 1995. Eligibility Policies of Study States in 1995
By 1995, interstate differences in Medicaid eligibility policy had been considerably reduced as a result of the federally mandated poverty-related expansions for children. That same year, all states were required to extend Medicaid coverage to children under age six and pregnant women with family income below 133 percent of the federal poverty lev
Concerns about Medicaid enrollment patterns are not new. Although Medicaid enrollment of children and their parents increased by just over 60 percent during the period from 1987 to 1995,