APPENDIX J. BUDGET TABLES TABLE J-1.--CBO BASELINE OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Spending category 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Defense discretionary................................... 292 280 273 277 283 291 298 International discretionary............................. 22 21 21 21 22 22 23 Domestic discretionary.................................. 228 246 260 267 273 282 290 ------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, discretionary........................... 542 547 546 551 549 549 566 ======================================================= Mandatory spending excluding deposit insurance.......... 762 802 847 897 963 1,028 1,100 Deposit insurance....................................... -28 -3 -12 -14 -6 -5 -4 Net Interest............................................ 199 201 214 230 241 252 264 Offsetting receipts..................................... -67 -68 -77 -72 -76 -82 -85 ------------------------------------------------------- Total outlays..................................... 1,408 1,478 1,518 1,591 1,670 1,743 1,843 ------------------------------------------------------- As a percentage of GDP ------------------------------------------------------- Defense discretionary................................... 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 International discretionary............................. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Domestic discretionary.................................. 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 ------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, discretionary........................... 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.6 ======================================================= Mandatory spending excluding deposit insurance.......... 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.8 Deposit Insurance....................................... -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 a Net interest............................................ 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Offsetting receipts..................................... -1.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 ------------------------------------------------------- Total outlays..................................... 22.4 22.3 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-2.--THE TEN-YEAR BUDGET OUTLOOK [By fiscal year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In billions of dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Revenues............................................. 1,251 1,338 1,411 1,479 1,556 1,630 1,706 1,783 1,868 1,958 2,054 Outlays: Discretionary.................................... 547 546 551 549 549 566 584 602 621 640 660 Mandatory: Social Security.............................. 318 335 352 370 388 408 429 450 473 497 523 Medicare..................................... 160 177 195 216 238 263 290 320 354 391 434 Medicaid..................................... 86 96 108 121 135 151 168 186 206 227 250 Civil Service and military retirement........ 62 65 68 71 74 79 82 86 90 94 99 Other........................................ 176 174 174 185 192 199 206 212 219 226 223 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal................................... 802 847 897 963 1,028 1,100 1,175 1,255 1,342 1,436 1,538 ================================================================================================== Deposit insurance................................ -3 -12 -14 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 Net interest..................................... 201 214 230 241 252 264 276 291 307 325 345 Offsetting receipts.............................. -68 -77 -72 -76 -82 -85 -88 -92 -95 -99 -104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total.......................................... 1,478 1,518 1,591 1,670 1,743 1,843 1,945 2,054 2,173 2,300 2,439 ================================================================================================== Deficit.............................................. 228 180 180 192 187 213 240 271 305 343 385 Debt held by the public.............................. 3,465 3,653 3,846 4,055 4,260 4,492 4,751 5,041 5,366 5,728 6,132 ================================================================================================== As a percentage of GDP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Revenues............................................. 18.8 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.8 Outlays: Discretionary.................................... 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0 Mandatory: Social Security.............................. 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Medicare..................................... 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 Medicaid..................................... 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Civil Service and military retirement........ 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Other........................................ 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal................................... 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 ================================================================================================== Deposit insurance................................ -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 - -0.1 -0.1 (\1\) (\1\) (\1\) (\1\) (\1\) (\1\) Net interest..................................... 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 Offsetting receipts.............................. -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total.......................................... 22.3 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 ================================================================================================== Deficit.............................................. 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 Debt held by the public.............................. 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.3 52.7 53.3 54.1 55.0 56.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Less than 0.05 percent of GDP. Source: Congressional Budget Office. Notes to table 2.-- CBO expects that under current policies, revenues will remain just under 19 percent of GDP (see the table above), but spending growth will outstrip revenues. Outlays climb by 2 percent of GDP in the 1998-2003 period. Within the spending totals, some categories grow and others shrink. The Government's big health care programs--Medicare and Medicaid--continue to soar, and together they represent 7 percent of GDP in 2003 (compared with 5.2 percent in 1998). Net interest outlays inch up from 3.7 percent of GDP in 1998 to 4.5 percent in 2003. Social Security benefits stay at about 4.9 percent of GDP. In 2003, the big demands that the baby-boom generation will place on Social Security and Medicare are still more than 5 years away. Most other spending programs roughly preserve their 1998 shares. A sole exception is discretionary spending--defense, international, and domestic. These programs are assumed in the baseline projections, to keep up with inflation once the Budget Enforcement Act's caps expire in 1995. They, therefore, dwindle gradually as a share of GDP, from 7.4 percent in 1998 (already a historic low) to 6.9 percent in 2003. Economic assumptions are critical to these projections. In the 1999-2003 period, CBO posits that real economic growth will continue at about 2 percent a year. The unemployment rate remains at about 5.6 percent, down very slightly from 1998's level. Short-term interest rates (as measured by 3-month Treasury bills) and longer-term rates (such as 10-year Treasury notes) are also assumed to remain constant, at 4.9 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. Inflation continues at 2.7 percent. Five-year budget projections are highly uncertain, and 10-year extrapolations are even more so. Some key uncertainties surround the assumptions about economic performance (chiefly, real economic growth and interest rates), and others are more narrowly budget-related: uncertainty about the continued surge in medical care expenditures, the size and timing of outlays for deposit insurance, and so forth. CBO's projections, uncertain though they are, nevertheless call into question the comfortable notion that the deficit will eventually go away of its own accord. TABLE J-3.--HOW TIGHT ARE THE DISCRETIONARY CAPS? [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995 1966 1997 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Budget Authority ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Discretionary caps...................... 518 519 530 533 Amount needed to preserve 1994 real resources: Defense............................. 269 278 287 295 International....................... 21 22 22 23 Domestic............................ 227 240 248 261 ------------------------------- Total............................. 517 540 557 579 Amount over or under (-) caps..... -1 20 27 45 Amount needed to freeze 1994 dollar resources: Defense............................. 260 260 260 260 International....................... 20 20 20 20 Domestic............................ 220 225 226 232 ------------------------------- Total............................. 501 506 507 513 Amount over or under (-) caps..... -17 -13 -22 -21 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Outlays ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Discretionary caps...................... 546 551 549 549 Amount needed to preserve 1994 real resources: Defense............................. 273 277 283 291 International....................... 21 21 22 22 Domestic............................ 260 267 273 282 ------------------------------- Total............................. 554 565 578 595 Amount over or under (-) caps..... 8 15 30 45 Amount needed to freeze 1994 dollar resources: Defense............................. 267 264 261 261 International....................... 21 20 21 20 Domestic............................ 255 255 255 256 ------------------------------- Total............................. 543 539 536 537 Amount over or under (-) caps..... -4 -11 -12 -13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Note.--Amounts needed to preserve 1994 real resources include adjustments for inflation of about 3 percent a year. Amounts needed to freeze 1994 dollar resources include no adjustment for inflation. Both paths include the budget authority necessary to renew expiring contracts for subsidized housing. The estimated caps are based on those published in Office of Management and Budget, ``Budget Enforcement Act Preview Report,'' in ``Budget of the United States Government: Analytical Perspectives'' (February 1994), as modified by CBO for expected adjustments. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-4.--CBO PROJECTIONS OF TRUST FUND SURPLUSES [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trust fund 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Social Security\1\.......................................... 62 70 75 84 92 99 Medicare\2\.................................................. 8 1 2 0 -3 -11 Military retirement....................................... 9 9 7 6 6 4 Civilian retirement\3\...................................... 29 30 31 33 34 36 Unemployment.............................................. 3 5 5 5 6 4 Highway and Airport....................................... -2 -3 -0 -1 -1 -1 Other\4\.................................................... 4 3 3 4 4 4 ----------------------------------------------------- Total trust fund surplus\5\........................... 113 116 123 131 138 136 Federal funds deficit\5\............................ -341 -295 -303 -323 -325 -349 Total deficit....................................... -228 -180 -180 -192 -187 -213 Memorandum: Net Transfers from Federal Funds to Trust Funds.................................................... 213 214 230 252 273 295 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance. \2\Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance. \3\Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller funds. \4\Primarily Railroad Retirement, employees' health insurance and life insurance, Superfund, and various veterans' insurance trust funds. \5\Assumes that discretionary spending reductions are made in non-fund programs. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-5.--TRUST FUND SURPLUSES, 1981-93 [In billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Account 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Social Security.................... -5 -8 (\1\) (\1\) 9 17 20 39 52 58 54 51 47 Medicare........................... 3 5 6 6 4 6 9 15 22 15 15 14 10 Military retirement................ ....... ....... ....... ....... 12 12 14 14 14 12 13 12 10 Civilian retirement\2\............. 11 12 14 15 18 19 18 19 20 22 24 26 28 Unemployment....................... -1 -4 -1 4 5 4 7 8 7 6 -3 -12 1 Highway and airport................ -2 -1 1 4 2 1 2 2 4 2 4 2 -1 Other\3\........................... 1 2 2 5 5 3 3 1 4 5 6 4 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total trust fund surplus..... 7 6 23 33 54 62 73 98 124 120 112 96 100 Federal funds deficit........ -86 -134 -231 -218 -267 -283 -222 -253 -276 -342 -381 -386 -355 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overall deficit.............. -79 -128 -208 -185 -212 -221 -150 -155 -153 -221 -270 -290 -255 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Less than $500 million. \2\Includes Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller funds. \3\Includes primarily Railroad Retirement, Employees' Health Insurance and Life Insurance, and Hazardous Substance Superfund. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-6.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES FOR SELECTED YEARS IN NOMINAL DOLLARS, AND AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP [By fiscal year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In nominal dollars (billions) -------------------------------------------------------------- Defense discretionary............................ 51.0 81.9 87.6 134.6 253.1 300.1 273.2 International discretionary...................... 4.7 4.0 8.2 12.8 17.4 19.1 20.9 Domestic discretionary........................... 26.1 38.7 66.7 129.1 145.7 182.5 259.7 -------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, discretionary.................... 81.8 124.6 162.5 276.5 416.2 501.7 546.1 Social Security.................................. 17.1 29.6 63.6 117.1 186.4 246.5 334.8 Medicare......................................... .0 6.8 14.1 34.0 69.7 107.4 177.4 Medicaid......................................... 0.3 2.7 6.8 14.0 22.7 41.1 96.2 AFDC, SSI, Food Stamps........................... 2.8 4.7 14.1 22.2 30.4 39.7 51.2 Deposit insurance................................ -.4 -.5 .5 -.4 -2.2 58.1 -12.1 Other entitlements and mandatories............... 8.0 13.3 47.5 75.0 93.7 73.1 110.6 Net interest..................................... 8.6 14.4 23.2 52.5 129.5 184.2 213.5 -------------------------------------------------------------- Total...................................... 118.2 195.6 332.3 590.9 946.4 1,251.8 1,517.7 Memo: GDP........................................ 671.4 985.6 1,511.0 2,644.5 3,970.9 5,459.5 7,005.5 -------------------------------------------------------------- As a percentage of GDP -------------------------------------------------------------- Defense discretionary............................ 7.6 8.3 5.8 5.1 6.4 5.5 3.9 International discretionary...................... .7 .4 .5 .5 .4 .3 0.3 Domestic discretionary........................... 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.3 3.7 Subtotal, discretionary.................... 12.2 12.6 10.8 10.5 10.5 9.2 7.8 Social Security.................................. 2.5 3.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.8 Medicare......................................... .0 .7 .9 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.5 Medicaid......................................... .0 .3 .5 .5 .6 .8 1.4 AFDC, SSI, Food Stamps........................... .4 .5 .9 .8 .8 .7 0.7 Deposit insurance................................ -.1 -.1 .0 .0 -.1 1.1 -0.2 Other entitlements and mandatories............... 1.2 1.3 3.1 2.8 2.4 1.3 1.6 Net interest..................................... 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.0 3.3 3.4 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------- Total...................................... 17.6 19.8 22.0 22.3 23.8 22.9 21.7 Memo: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid..... 2.6 4.0 5.6 6.2 7.0 7.2 8.7 -------------------------------------------------------------- As a percentage of budget -------------------------------------------------------------- Defense discretionary............................ 43.1 41.9 26.4 22.8 26.7 24.0 18.0 International discretionary...................... 4.0 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.4 Domestic discretionary........................... 22.1 19.8 20.1 21.8 15.4 14.6 17.1 Subtotal, discretionary.................... 69.2 63.7 48.9 46.8 44.0 40.1 36.0 Social Security.................................. 14.5 15.1 19.1 19.8 19.7 19.7 22.1 Medicare......................................... .0 3.5 4.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 11.7 Medicaid......................................... .3 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.4 3.3 6.3 AFDC, SSI, Food Stamps........................... 2.4 2.4 4.2 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.4 Deposit insurance................................ -.3 -.3 .2 -.1 -.2 4.6 -0.8 Other entitlements and mandatories............... 6.8 6.8 14.3 12.7 9.9 5.8 7.3 Net interest..................................... 7.3 7.4 7.0 8.9 13.7 14.7 14.1 -------------------------------------------------------------- Total...................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-7.--MAJOR POLICY CHANGES IN WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE PROGRAMS (BUDGETARY SAVINGS ESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEAR 1993) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ In billions of dollars Percent\1\ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Social Security: 6-month COLA delay\2\..................... 4.5 Taxation of benefits...................... 6.1 Elimination of students benefits.......... 2.6 Elimination of certain mother/father benefits................................. .8 Elimination of minimum benefits........... .3 Disability insurance: 6-month COLA delay........................ .5 Taxation of benefits...................... .2 Limit on family maximum................... 1.1 Assume 1971-80 award rate continued through 1993\3\.......................... 10.7 ------------- Subtotal--Social Security............... 26.8 8 ============= Medicare: Provider reductions\4\.................... 51.1 27 Deductible increases...................... 2.3 Part B premium increases\5\............... 8.1 ------------- Subtotal................................ 61.5 ============= AFDC: Real benefit decline since 1975\6\........ 8.6 Earnings disregard and other charges...... .7 ------------- Subtotal................................ 9.3 36 Title XX (Social Services Block Grant): Real decline in budget authority\7\....... 3.3 54 ============= Unemployment compensation: Decline in State coverage\8\.............. .9 Taxation of benefits\9\................... 2.2 ------------- Subtotal................................ 3.0 SSI: Benefit increase in July 1983\10\......... +1.1 Child welfare services........................ NA Trade adjustment assistance................... NA ------------- Total changes........................... 102.8 Total change in outlays....................... 94.2 Total changes in benefits to individuals...... 51.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ \1\Calculated as savings/(savings plus fiscal year 1993 outlays). \2\This illustrates that the provision to tax 50 percent of Social Security benefits above $25,000 for a single individual and $32,000 of a married couple filing jointly indirectly cut Social Security benefits. \3\These savings are due mostly to administrative policy. The savings of $10.7 billion are derived by assuming that the new award rate that prevailed during the 1970's would continue throughout all of the 1980's. \4\The Medicare provider reductions and the deductible increases are derived by assuming that the real increase in expenditures per Medicare beneficiary that prevailed from 1975 to 1980 would continue into the 1980's. See appendix B in the section entitled ``Analyzing Trends in Medicare Spending, 1967-1997'' for a more complete discussion of how this savings estimate was attained. \5\This shows the increase in part B premiums that took place as a result of maintaining part B premiums at 25 percent of the total cost of the part B program. During the 1970's part B premiums increased at a rate equal to the increase in the Social Security COLA. \6\This estimate is derived by assuming that States would have held their AFDC benefit level in real terms equal to that in 1975. \7\This estimate is a result of the real decline in the title XX (Social Security Block Grant) program using the CPI-X1 price index. It compares 1977 real budget authority to that in 1993. \8\This savings estimate is derived by assuming that the ratio of insured unemployed workers to job losers would be at the same ratio as that prevailing in 1979. \9\This savings estimate shows the amount of money derived by taxing unemployment benefits. \10\This number illustrates the additional cost in fiscal year 1993 of the $20-per-month increase in the SSI benefit for individuals and the $30-per-month increase for couples. Note.--This table illustrates the savings for fiscal year 1993 for the major changes in policy that occurred between 1980 and 1990 for the entitlement programs under the jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means. For example, if the 6-month cost-of-living allowance delay had not been enacted in the 1983 Social Security amendments, Social Security outlays would be $4.5 billion larger in fiscal year 1993. This table does not attempt to differentiate between legislative changes made at the Federal and the State level nor does it attempt to differentiate between regulation and law. It is an effort to illustrate precisely the magnitude of entitlement savings that actually occurred due to policy changes at the Federal and State level. It also makes no judgment about whether these policy changes were appropriate. Source: Ways and Means Committee Staff based upon CBO technical assistance. Table created in March 1991. TABLE J-8.--FEDERAL REVENUES BY SOURCE FOR SELECTED YEARS IN NOMINAL DOLLARS, AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP AND TOTAL REVENUES\1\ [By fiscal year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In nominal dollars (billions) ----------------------------------------------------------- Individual income................................... 48.8 90.4 122.4 244.1 334.5 466.9 595.9 Corporate income.................................... 25.5 32.8 40.6 64.6 61.3 93.5 130.2 Social insurance.................................... 22.2 44.4 84.5 157.8 265.2 380.0 499.3 Excise.............................................. 14.6 15.7 16.6 24.3 36.0 35.3 56.0 Estate and gift..................................... 2.7 3.6 4.6 6.4 6.4 11.5 13.9 Other............................................... 3.0 5.9 10.4 19.9 30.6 44.0 42.9 ----------------------------------------------------------- Total......................................... 116.8 192.8 279.1 517.1 734.1 1,031.3 1,338.2 ----------------------------------------------------------- As a percentage of GDP ----------------------------------------------------------- Individual income................................... 7.3 9.2 8.1 9.2 8.5 8.6 8.5 Corporate income.................................... 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 Social insurance.................................... 3.3 4.5 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.0 7.1 Excise.............................................. 2.2 1.6 1.1 .9 .9 .6 .8 Estate and gift..................................... .4 .4 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 Other............................................... .4 .6 .7 .8 .8 .8 .6 ----------------------------------------------------------- Total......................................... 17.4 19.5 18.3 19.4 18.6 19.1 19.1 ----------------------------------------------------------- As a percentage of revenues ----------------------------------------------------------- Individual income................................... 41.8 46.9 43.9 47.2 45.6 45.3 44.5 Corporate income.................................... 21.8 17.0 14.6 12.5 8.4 9.1 9.7 Social insurance.................................... 19.0 23.0 30.3 30.5 36.1 36.9 37.3 Excise.............................................. 12.5 8.1 5.9 4.7 4.9 3.4 4.2 Estate and gift..................................... 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.2 .9 1.1 1.0 Other............................................... 2.6 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------- Total......................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Projected. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-9.--CBO BASELINE REVENUE PROJECTIONS BY SOURCE, AND AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 1993-1999 [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Projections -------------------------------------------------------------- 1993 actual 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Individual income................................ 509.7 546.6 595.9 635.0 667.7 707.9 747.5 Corporate income................................. 117.5 128.0 130.2 132.7 138.0 143.5 148.3 Social insurance................................. 428.3 468.5 499.3 525.5 551.1 578.1 603.8 Excise........................................... 48.1 55.4 56.0 56.8 57.7 58.7 59.7 Estate and gift.................................. 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.9 Customs duties................................... 18.8 19.3 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.1 Other............................................ 18.6 19.5 21.8 24.0 25.5 26.7 27.6 -------------------------------------------------------------- Total...................................... 1,153.5 1,250.5 1,338.2 1,410.7 1,478.7 1,555.9 1,629.9 -------------------------------------------------------------- As a percentage of GDP -------------------------------------------------------------- Individual income................................ 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 Corporate income................................. 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 Social insurance................................. 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 Excise........................................... 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Estate and gift.................................. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Customs duties................................... 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Other............................................ 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------- Total...................................... 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-10.--CBO BASELINE PROJECTIONS FOR SELECTED PROGRAMS WITHIN THE JURISDICTION OF THE COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS FOR FISCAL YEARS 1993-99 [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993 actual 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Social Security........................... 301.6 318 334.8 353.4 370 388.6 408 OASI.................................. 268 281 294.6 309.7 322.9 337.9 353.6 DI.................................... 33.6 37 40.2 43.7 47.1 50.7 54.4 Medicare.................................. 124.2 160 177.3 195.1 215.6 237.8 263.4 HI.................................... 77.9 100.8 110.5 119.5 130.1 141.7 155.5 SMI................................... 46.3 59.2 66.8 75.6 85.5 96.1 107.9 Trade adjustment.......................... 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Unemployment insurance.................... 36.3 27.8 24.6 25.4 25.7 26 27 Family support............................ 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 EITC--outlays............................. 8.8 9.9 15.3 18.1 20.1 20.1 21.7 SSI....................................... 21 25 24 24 29 32 35 Title XX--social services................. 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 Child welfare............................. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Foster care and adoption assistance....... 2.6 3. 3.6 3.8 4 4.4 4.7 Child health insurance credit............. 0.6 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 Child care and development block grant.... 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1 1 SMI premium............................... -16.1 -17.4 -19.9 -19.9 -22.5 -22.7 -27.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Total............................... 498.9 548.3 582.7 622.9 665.4 707.5 756.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-11.--WAYS AND MEANS PROGRAM OUTLAYS COMPARED WITH TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS, IN NOMINAL DOLLARS, AND AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES FOR SELECTED YEARS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal year ----------------------------------------------------------- 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In nominal dollars (billions) ----------------------------------------------------------- Social Security\1\.................................. 29.6 63.6 117.1 186.4 246.5 334.8 Medicare\1\......................................... 6.8 14.1 34.0 69.7 107.4 177.3 Unemployment compensation and trade adjustment assistance\1\...................................... 2.8 12.0 15.7 16.0 17.5 24.8 Public assistance and social services (Family Support Administration, SSI, Title XX, EITC, and Foster Care)....................................... 5.1 13.5 17.8 23.3 32.0 60.5 Nondefense discretionary spending and other entitlements....................................... -55.5 117.8 219.6 270.6 306.0 446.1 Deposit insurance................................... -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -2.2 58.1 -12 National defense.................................... 81.9 87.6 134.6 253.1 300.1 273 Net interest........................................ 14.4 23.2 52.5 129.5 184.2 213.5 ----------------------------------------------------------- Total........................................... 195.6 332.3 590.9 946.4 1,251.8 1,518 Memo: CPI-X1 (1987=100)............................. 40.3 54.2 80.2 106.7 128.8 151.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average annual growth rates -------------------------------------------- 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Social Security\1\......... 16.5 13.0 9.7 5.7 6.3 Medicare\1\................ 15.7 19.2 15.4 9.0 10.5 Unemployment compensation and trade adjustment assistance\1\............. 33.8 5.5 .4 1.8 7.2 Public assistance and social services (Family Support Administration, SSI, Title XX, EITC, and Foster Care).............. 21.5 5.7 5.5 6.6 13.6 Nondefense discretionary spending and other entitlements.............. 16.2 13.3 4.3 2.5 7.8 Deposit insurance.......... NA NA NA NA NA National defense........... 1.4 9.0 13.5 3.5 -1.9 Net interest............... 10.0 17.7 19.8 7.3 3 -------------------------------------------- Total.................. 11.2 12.2 9.9 5.8 3.9 Memo: CPI-X1............... 5.8 8.0 5.6 3.8 3.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ \1\Includes entitlement spending only. Note: All growth rates were calculated using the LOTUS 1-2-3 formula @Rate =(Y/A)\1\/n=r. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-12.--WAYS AND MEANS PROGRAM OUTLAYS COMPARED WITH TOTAL FEDERAL PROGRAM OUTLAYS IN PERCENTAGE TERMS FOR SELECTED YEARS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990\1\ 1995\1\ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Social Security (including Medicare)...................... 18.6 23.4 25.6 27.1 28.3 33.7 Unemployment compensation and trade adjustment assistance. 1.4 3.6 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 Public assistance and social services (AFDC, SSI, title XX, EITC, low-income energy assistance and child welfare programs)................................................ 2.6 4.1 3.0 2.5 2.6 4.0 Nondefense discretionary spending and other entitlements.. 28.4 35.4 37.2 28.6 24.4 29.4 Deposit insurance......................................... -.3 -.2 -.1 -.2 4.6 -.8 National defense.......................................... 41.9 26.4 22.8 26.7 24.0 18.0 Net interest.............................................. 7.4 7.0 8.9 13.7 14.7 14.1 ----------------------------------------------------- Total............................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Ways and Means programs as a percentage of total Federal Government outlays, less interest........................ 24.4 33.4 34.3 36.2 37.8 45.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Based on CBO baseline current law projections. Source: Ways and Means Committee staff based upon CBO data. TABLE J-13.--HISTORICAL OUTLAYS FOR ENTITLEMENTS AND OTHER MANDATORY SPENDING [In billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Category 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Means-tested programs: Stafford loans\1\........... 0.1 1.4 2.3 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.5 2.8 3.9 4.4 4.8 1.7 2.2 Medicaid.................... 6.8 14.0 16.8 17.4 19.0 20.1 22.7 25.0 27.4 30.5 34.6 41.1 52.5 67.8 75.8 Food stamps................. 4.6 9.1 11.3 11.0 12.7 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.4 13.1 13.7 15.9 19.6 22.8 24.6 Child nutrition............. 1.5 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.6 Earned income tax credit.... .0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.4 4.9 8.2 9.4 Supplemental security income 4.3 5.7 6.5 6.9 7.9 7.6 8.7 9.3 9.9 11.4 11.5 11.5 14.8 17.9 21.2 Family support.............. 5.1 7.3 8.2 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 10.8 11.2 12.2 14.1 15.7 16.4 Veterans' pensions.......... 2.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.5 Other....................... .3 .1 .3 .4 .3 .5 .8 .9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total, means-tested programs................. 25.4 45.9 53.9 54.8 59.3 61.3 66.0 69.9 72.9 80.5 88.8 99.9 122.3 146.5 162.3 ======================================================================================================================= Non-means-tested programs: Medicare.................... 14.1 34.0 41.3 49.2 55.5 61.0 69.7 74.2 79.9 85.7 94.3 107.4 114.2 129.4 143.2 Social Security............. 63.6 117.1 137.9 153.9 168.5 176.1 186.4 196.5 205.1 216.8 230.4 246.5 266.7 285.1 302.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal.................. 77.7 151.1 179.2 203.1 224.0 237.1 256.1 270.7 285.0 302.5 324.7 353.9 380.9 414.5 445.1 ======================================================================================================================= Other retirement and disability: Federal civilian\3\......... 7.4 15.5 18.6 20.6 22.1 23.3 24.6 25.0 27.6 30.3 31.8 33.7 36.9 37.0 38.8 Military.................... 6.2 11.9 13.7 14.9 15.9 16.5 15.8 17.6 18.1 19.0 20.2 21.5 23.1 24.5 25.7 Other....................... 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.4 5.1 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal.................. 18.3 32.1 37.4 40.7 43.2 44.7 45.5 47.5 50.8 54.2 57.2 59.9 64.4 66.6 68.7 ======================================================================================================================= Other programs: Unemployment compensation... 12.8 16.9 18.3 22.2 29.7 17.0 15.8 16.1 15.5 13.6 13.9 17.5 25.1 36.9 35.4 ======================================================================================================================= Farm price supports......... .6 2.8 4.0 11.7 18.9 7.3 17.7 25.8 22.4 12.2 10.6 6.5 10.1 9.2 15.6 Social services............. 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.5 4.4 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.6 5.2 5.1 Veterans' benefits\3\....... 10.2 11.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 14.8 14.9 13.4 14.4 15.7 17.0 General revenue sharing..... 6.1 6.8 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.1 .1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other....................... 10.4 21.2 26.6 19.8 15.8 17.1 27.9 7.7 6.4 12.3 12.5 10.4 13.1 16.7 11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal.................. 30.2 45.5 51.8 52.0 55.5 46.2 66.6 55.5 46.0 43.5 42.6 35.4 43.2 83.7 50.6 ======================================================================================================================= Total, Non-means-tested programs................. 139.0 245.6 286.7 318.0 352.4 345.0 384.0 389.8 397.3 413.8 438.4 466.7 513.6 564.8 599.8 ======================================================================================================================= Total outlays............. 164.4 291.5 340.6 372.8 411.7 406.3 450.0 459.7 470.2 494.3 527.2 566.6 635.9 711.3 762.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Formerly known as Guaranteed Student Loans. \2\Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, other retirement programs, and annuitants' health benefits. \3\Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing programs. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-14.--COMPARISON OF AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES FOR MAJOR ENTITLEMENT AND MANDATORY SPENDING PROGRAMS FOR SELECTED TIME PERIODS, BASED ON VARIOUS ADJUSTMENTS FOR INFLATION AND POPULATION GROWTH -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Between years adjusted for 1975-93\1\ 1975-93\2\ 1975-93\2\\3\ 1975-81\2\\3\ 1981-92\2\\3\ 1992-93\2\\3\ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Means-tested programs: Medicaid.............................................. 13.4 8.0 7.0 5.7 7.6 7.8 Food stamps\4\........................................ 9.3 3.9 2.9 5.6 1.3 3.9 Supplemental security income.......................... 8.9 3.5 2.5 -2.5 4.1 14.4 AFDC and child support enforcement.................... 6.5 1.1 0.1 -1.5 0.8 0.5 Veterans' pensions.................................... 1.4 -4.0 -5.0 -3.7 -5.3 -9.4 Child nutrition....................................... 8.2 2.8 1.8 4.2 0.2 4.2 Guaranteed student loans.............................. 17.2 11.8 10.8 42.9 -7.8 25.4 Other and EITC........................................ 20.5 15.1 14.1 18.5 12.2 9.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total means-tested programs......................... 10.3 4.9 3.9 3.1 4.0 6.8 ============================================================================================= Non-means-tested programs: Social Security....................................... 8.7 3.3 2.3 3.5 1.5 1.9 Medicare.............................................. 12.9 7.5 6.5 8.5 5.3 6.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal............................................ 9.7 4.3 3.3 4.5 2.5 3.4 ============================================================================================= Other retirement and disability: Federal civilian\5\................................... 9.2 3.8 2,8 6.0 1.2 0.9 Military.............................................. 7.9 2.5 1.5 3.8 0.2 1.3 Other................................................. -.6 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 -5.1 -21.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal............................................ 7.3 1.9 .9 2.5 0.1 -0.8 ============================================================================================= Unemployment compensation................................. 5.7 .3 -.7 -3.4 1.3 -8.1 Other programs: Veterans' benefits\6\................................. 2.8 -2.6 -3.6 -6.4 -2.8 4.3 Farm price supports................................... 18.1 12.7 11.7 22.2 2.5 65.5 Social services....................................... 3.1 -2.3 -3.3 -4.5 -2.5 -5.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other................................................. .5 -4.9 -5.9 6.3 -9.3 35.7 ============================================================================================= Subtotal............................................ 2.9 -2.5 -3.5 -.4 -.7 43.5 ============================================================================================= Total, non-means-tested programs.................... 8.1 2.7 1.7 2.7 1.1 2.2 ============================================================================================= Total outlays....................................... 8.5 3.1 2.1 2.7 1.6 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Nominal growth. \2\Adjusted for inflation (based on the CPI-XI). \3\Adjusted for overall population growth. \4\Includes nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico. \5\Includes Coast Guard retirement. \6\Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing projects. Note: All growth rates were calculated using the exponential growth function Y=Ae rt. TABLE J-15.--CBO BASELINE PROJECTIONS FOR MANDATORY SPENDING EXCLUDING DEPOSIT INSURANCE [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993 01-Mar-94 actual 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Means-tested programs --------------------------------------------------------- Medicaid.............................................. 75.8 85.9 97.0 108.1 120.9 135.4 151.1 Food stamps\1\........................................ 24.6 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.6 28.9 30.0 Supplemental security income.......................... 21.2 24.7 24.5 24.5 29.3 32.1 35.1 Family support........................................ 16.4 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.2 Veterans' pensions.................................... 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.0 Child nutrition....................................... 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.9 9.5 Earned income tax credit.............................. 9.4 10.6 15.3 18.1 20.1 20.8 21.7 Student loans\2\...................................... 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 Other................................................. 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 --------------------------------------------------------- Total, means-tested programs.................... 162.3 179.5 195.8 211.8 233.8 254.5 276.9 --------------------------------------------------------- Non-means-tested programs --------------------------------------------------------- Social Security....................................... 302.0 318.0 334.8 352.1 370.0 388.5 408.0 Medicare.............................................. 143.2 160.0 177.4 195.1 215.6 237.7 263.4 --------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal........................................ 445.1 478.0 512.1 547.2 585.5 626.2 671.3 ========================================================= Other retirement and disability: Federal civilian\3\............................... 38.8 40.2 42.1 43.8 46.4 48.8 51.3 Military.......................................... 25.7 26.5 27.5 28.9 30.5 32.1 34.6 Other............................................. 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 --------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal........................................ 68.7 71.3 74.4 77.5 81.5 85.5 90.3 ========================================================= Unemployment compensation............................. 35.4 27.2 24.0 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.5 Other programs: Veterans' benefits\4\............................. 17.0 17.8 17.0 16.2 17.8 18.3 19.0 Farm price supports............................... 15.6 10.6 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.7 Social services................................... 5.1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.4 Credit reform liquidating accounts................ 1.5 -1.2 -0.6 -4.3 -4.6 -5.5 -5.9 Other............................................. 11.4 12.7 10.9 9.6 10.0 9.9 8.3 --------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal........................................ 50.6 45.8 40.7 35.2 37.0 36.7 35.5 ========================================================= Total, non-means-tested programs................ 599.7 622.3 651.2 684.8 729.2 773.9 823.6 ========================================================= Total outlays................................... 762.1 801.8 847.0 896.7 962.9 1028.4 1100.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Includes nutrition assistance to Puerto Rico. \2\Formerly known as Guaranteed Student Loans. \3\Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, other retirement programs, and annuitants' health benefits. \4\Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing programs. Note.--Spending for major benefit programs shown in this table includes benefits only. Outlays for administrative costs of most benefit programs are classified as nondefense discretionary spending, and Medicare premium collections are offsetting receipts. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-16.--CHANGES IN LOW INCOME DISCRETIONARY PROGRAM FUNDING, FISCAL YEARS 1982-94 [Budget authority, in millions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal Fiscal year Fiscal year Fiscal year 1994-- Percent 1982 1982 year 1982 change actual inflated\1\ 1994 inflated ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Education Compensatory education..................................... 3,026 4,721 7,031 2,310 49 Education for the homeless\2\ \3\.......................... 0 0 35 35 NA Financial aid.............................................. 3,569 5,568 8,020 2,452 44 Head Start................................................. 912 1,423 3,326 1,903 134 Higher education (TRIOS)................................... 150 234 419 185 79 Indian Education........................................... 341 532 579 47 9 ---------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, education.................................. 7,998 12,477 19,410 6,933 56 ==================================================== Nutrition Commodity supplemental food program........................ 29 45 95 50 110 Food donation programs..................................... 141 220 259 39 18 Temporary emergency food assistance........................ 0 0 120 120 NA WIC supplemental food program.............................. 905 1,412 3,210 1,798 127 ---------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, nutrition.................................. 1,076 1,679 3,683 2,004 119 ==================================================== Housing Emergency food and shelter\2\.............................. 0 0 130 130 NA Emergency shelter grants\2\................................ 0 0 115 115 NA Housing elderly/handicapped\4\............................. 831 1,296 1,194 -102 -8 Public housing operating subsidies......................... 1,491 2,326 2,621 295 13 Rural housing insurance fund\5\............................ 3,455 5,390 1,135 -4,255 -79 Additional rural housing\6\................................ 431 672 521 -151 -23 Section 8 homeless SRO's\2\................................ 0 0 150 150 NA Subsidized housing......................................... 13,275 20,709 8,244 -12,465 -60 Subsidized housing renewals................................ 0 0 5,202 5,202 NA Transitional and supporting housing\2\..................... 0 0 334 334 NA ---------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, housing.................................... 19,483 30,393 19,646 -10,747 -35 ==================================================== Health Community health centers................................... 281 438 604 166 38 Health care homeless\2\.................................... 0 0 63 63 NA Immunizations.............................................. 35 55 528 473 867 Maternal and child health.................................. 374 583 695 112 19 Migrant health............................................. 38 59 57 -2 -4 Homeless mental health\2\ \7\.............................. 0 0 51 51 NA Indian health.............................................. 618 964 1,646 682 71 Indian health facilities................................... 58 90 297 207 228 ---------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, health..................................... 1,404 2,190 3,940 1,750 80 ==================================================== Employment Job training welfare recipients\8\......................... 281 438 860 422 96 Older Americans employment................................. 277 432 411 -21 -5 Training and employment services........................... 2,984 4,655 5,014 359 8 ---------------------------------------------------- Subtotal, employment................................. 3,542 5,526 6,285 759 14 ==================================================== Other Child welfare services..................................... 160 250 295 45 18 Community development block grant.......................... 3,456 5,391 4,400 -991 -18 Community services block grant\9\.......................... 366 571 464 -107 -19 Legal services............................................. 241 376 400 24 6 Low income energy assistance............................... 1,875 2,925 2,037 -888 -30 Low income weatherization.................................. 180 281 207 -74 -26 Runaway and homeless youth................................. 11 17 36 19 110 VISTA...................................................... 18 28 42 14 50 ---------------------------------------------------- Subtotal other....................................... 6,307 9,839 7,881 -1,958 -20 ==================================================== Total, low-income discretionary...................... 39,810 62,104 60,845 -1,259 -2 ==================================================== Total less subsidized housing........................ 20,327 31,710 41,199 9,489 30 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Inflation from fiscal year 1982 to fiscal year 1994, calculated using CPI-XI price inflater. \2\These programs are part of the Stewart B. McKinney Homeless Assistance Act. \3\These programs include adult literacy, homeless children education grants, and exemplary grants. \4\In fiscal year 1991, a new capital grants program replaced the direct loan program for housing assistance for the elderly and handicapped. Therefore, the fiscal year 1982 figure is a loan limitation, as loan limits provide the best measure of program activity for loan programs, and the fiscal year 1994 figure is budget authority. \5\This is a loan program. Therefore, levels listed are loan limits instead of budget authority. \6\These programs include domestic farm labor housing, mutual and self-help housing, very low income housing repair grants, rural housing preservation grants and rural rental assistance. \7\These programs include the homeless block grant, mental health demonstrations, and alcohol and drug abuse demonstrations, administered by the Alcohol, Drug Abuse and Mental Health Administration. \8\The fiscal year 1982 figure is budget authority for the discretionary WIN program. The fiscal year 1994 figure is the obligation level for the entitlement JOBS program, which replaced WIN. While $1.1 billion was appropriated for JOBS in fiscal year 1993, CBO estimates that States will only request $860 million. \9\The fiscal year 1982 figure is budget authority of the Community Services Administration which was dismantled in fiscal year 1982 and replaced by the community services block grant. While these activities are similar, they are not identical. NA--Not applicable. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-17.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BASELINE, ADMINISTRATION, AND BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, CALENDAR YEARS 1993-99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Forecast Projected Estimated\1\ ----------------------------------------- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real GDP\2\ (Percentage change, year over year): CBO................................................ 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 Administration..................................... 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 Blue Chip.......................................... 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.8 GDP Deflator (Percentage change, year over year): CBO................................................ 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 Administration..................................... 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 Blue Chip.......................................... 2.6 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Consumer Price Index\3\ (Percentage change, year over year): CBO................................................ 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Administration..................................... 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Blue Chip.......................................... 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 Civilian Unemployment Rate (Percent):\4\ CBO................................................ 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 Administration..................................... 6.8 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.9 Blue Chip.......................................... 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Percent):\5\ CBO................................................ 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 Administration..................................... 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 Blue Chip.......................................... 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate (Percent): CBO................................................ 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 Administration..................................... 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Blue Chip\6\....................................... 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Administration used CBO's economic forecast in its budget calculations. The forecast labeled ``Administration'' in this table reflects the Administration's own forecast and includes its estimate of its own programs' effects. \1\The Blue Chip forecast was prepared two month later than the other forecasts, so the Blue Chip data for 1993 are actual. \2\Based on constant 1987 dollars. \3\Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). \4\The Bureau of Labor Statistics changed the unemployment survey in January 1994. The CBO and Administration forecasts for 1994 through 1999 originally used 1993 methodology. The forecast tables reported here have been adjusted upward 0.4 percentage points to make the forecasts comparable with currently published figures. Data for 1933, shown in italics, use pre-1994 methodology. \5\Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). \6\The Blue Chip does not project a 10-year note rate. The values shown here are based on the Blue Chip projection of the Aaa bond rate, adjusted by CBO to reflect the estimated spread between Aaa bonds and 10-year Treasury notes. Notes: The CBO forecast is based on data available through December 1992 and does not reflect fourth-quarter data for gross domestic product or the consumer price index published in January 1993. The Blue Chip forecasts are based on a survey of private forecasters published on March 10, 1993. Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Office of Management and Budget; Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc., Blue Chip Economic Indicators. TABLE J-18.--EFFECTS ON CBO BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF SELECTED CHANGES IN ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Real growth: Effect of 1-percentage-point lower annual rate beginning January 1994 Change in revenues..... -8 -25 -46 -69 -93 -118 Change in outlays...... 1 4 8 14 22 31 Change in deficit...... 9 29 54 82 115 149 Unemployment: Effect of 1-percentage-point higher annual rate beginning January 1994 Change in revenues..... -33 -49 -50 -52 -54 -57 Change in outlays...... 4 8 12 15 20 24 Change in deficit...... 37 57 62 67 74 81 Inflation: Effect of 1-percentage-point higher annual rate beginning January 1994 Change in revenues..... 7 20 35 51 68 87 Change in outlays...... 5 20 34 49 66 88 Change in deficit...... -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 Interest rates: Effect of 1-percentage-point higher annual rate beginning January 1994 Change in revenues..... 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in outlays...... 5 16 23 29 35 42 Change in deficit...... 5 16 23 29 35 42 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-19.--REVENUES, OUTLAYS, DEFICITS, AND DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC, FISCAL YEARS 1962-93 [In billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Deficit (-) or Surplus ---------------------------------------- Debt held Revenues Outlays Social by the On- Security Postal Total public\1\ Budget Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1962...................................... 99.7 106.8 -5.9 -1.3 0 -7.1 248.0 1963...................................... 106.6 111.3 -4.0 -.8 0 -4.8 254.0 1964...................................... 112.6 118.5 -6.5 .6 0 -5.9 256.8 1965...................................... 116.8 118.2 -1.6 .2 0 -1.4 260.8 1966...................................... 130.8 134.5 -3.1 -.6 0 -3.7 263.7 1967...................................... 148.8 157.5 -12.6 4.0 0 -8.6 266.6 1968...................................... 153.0 178.1 -27.7 2.6 0 -25.2 289.5 1969...................................... 186.9 183.6 -0.5 3.7 0 3.2 278.1 1970...................................... 192.8 195.6 -8.7 5.9 0 -2.8 283.2 1971...................................... 187.1 210.2 -26.1 3.0 0 -23.0 303.0 1972...................................... 207.3 230.7 -26.4 3.1 0 -23.4 322.4 1973...................................... 230.8 245.7 -15.4 .5 0 -14.9 340.9 1974...................................... 263.2 269.4 -8.0 1.8 0 -6.1 343.7 1975...................................... 279.1 332.3 -55.3 2.0 0 -53.2 394.7 1976...................................... 298.1 371.8 -70.5 -3.2 0 -73.7 477.4 1977...................................... 355.6 409.2 -49.8 -3.9 0 -53.7 549.1 1978...................................... 399.6 458.7 -54.9 -4.3 0 -59.2 607.1 1979...................................... 463.3 503.5 -38.2 -2.0 0 -40.2 639.8 1980...................................... 517.1 590.9 -72.7 -1.1 0 -73.8 709.3 1981...................................... 599.3 678.2 -74.0 -5.0 0 -79.0 784.8 1982...................................... 617.8 745.8 -120.1 -7.9 0 -128.0 919.2 1983...................................... 600.6 808.4 -208.0 .2 0 -207.8 1,131.0 1984...................................... 666.5 851.8 -185.7 .3 0 -185.4 1,300.0 1985...................................... 734.1 946.4 -221.7 9.4 0 -212.3 1,499.4 1986...................................... 769.1 990.3 -238.0 16.7 0 -221.2 1,736.2 1987...................................... 854.1 1,003.9 -169.3 19.6 0 -149.8 1,888.1 1988...................................... 909.0 1,064.1 -194.0 38.8 0 -155.2 2,050.3 1989...................................... 990.7 1,143.2 -205.2 52.4 0.3 -152.5 2,189.3 1990...................................... 1,031.3 1,252.7 -278.0 58.2 -1.6 -221.4 2,410.4 1991...................................... 1,054.3 1,323.8 -321.7 53.5 -1.3 -269.5 2,687.9 1992...................................... 1,090.5 1,380.9 -340.5 50.7 -0.7 -290.4 2,998.6 1993...................................... 1,153.5 1,408.2 -300.0 46.2 -0.9 -254.7 3,247.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\End of year. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-20.--REVENUES, OUTLAYS, DEFICITS, AND DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC, FISCAL YEARS 1962-93 [As a percentage of GDP] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Deficit (-) or surplus -------------------------------------- Debt held Revenues Outlays Social by the On- Security Postal Total public\1\ budget Service ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1962....................................... 18.0 19.3 -1.1 -0.2 0 -1.3 44.7 1963....................................... 18.2 19.0 -.7 -.1 0 -.8 43.4 1964....................................... 18.0 18.9 -1.0 .1 0 -.9 41.0 1965....................................... 17.4 17.6 -.2 (\2\) 0 -.2 38.8 1966....................................... 17.7 18.2 -.4 -.1 0 -.5 35.7 1967....................................... 18.8 19.9 -1.6 .5 0 -1.1 33.7 1968....................................... 18.0 21.0 -3.3 .3 0 -3.0 34.1 1969....................................... 20.2 19.8 -.1 .4 0 .4 30.0 1970....................................... 19.6 19.8 -.9 .6 0 -.3 28.7 1971....................................... 17.8 20.0 -2.5 .3 0 -2.2 28.8 1972....................................... 18.1 20.1 -2.3 .3 0 -2.0 28.1 1973....................................... 18.1 19.2 -1.2 (\2\) 0 -1.2 26.7 1974....................................... 18.8 19.2 -.6 .1 0 -.4 24.5 1975....................................... 18.5 22.0 -3.7 .1 0 -3.5 26.1 1976....................................... 17.7 22.1 -4.2 -.2 0 -4.4 28.3 1977....................................... 18.5 21.3 -2.6 -.2 0 -2.8 28.6 1978....................................... 18.5 21.3 -2.5 -.2 0 -2.7 28.2 1979....................................... 19.1 20.7 -1.6 -.1 0 -1.7 26.3 1980....................................... 19.6 22.3 -2.7 (\2\) 0 -2.8 26.8 1981....................................... 20.2 22.9 -2.5 -.2 0 -2.7 26.5 1982....................................... 19.8 23.9 -3.8 -.3 0 -4.1 29.4 1983....................................... 18.1 24.4 -6.3 (\2\) 0 -6.3 34.1 1984....................................... 18.0 23.0 -5.0 (\2\) 0 -5.0 35.2 1985....................................... 18.5 23.8 -5.6 .2 0 -5.3 37.8 1986....................................... 18.2 23.5 -5.6 .4 0 -5.2 41.1 1987....................................... 19.2 22.5 -3.8 .4 0 -3.4 42.4 1988....................................... 18.9 22.1 -4.0 .8 0 -3.2 42.6 1989....................................... 19.1 22.1 -4.0 1.0 (\2\) -2.9 42.3 1990....................................... 18.8 22.8 -5.1 1.1 (\2\) -4.0 44.0 1991....................................... 18.6 23.3 -5.7 .9 (\2\) -4.8 47.4 1992....................................... 18.4 23.2 -5.7 .9 (\2\) -4.9 0.5 1993....................................... 18.3 22.4 -4.8 .7 (\2\) -4.0 51.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\End of year. \2\Less than .05 percent. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-21.--REVENUES BY MAJOR SOURCE, FISCAL YEARS 1962-93 [In billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Estate Individual Corporate Social Excise and Customs Miscellaneous Total Fiscal year income income insurance taxes gift duties receipts revenues taxes taxes taxes taxes ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1962........................ 45.6 20.5 17.0 12.5 2.0 1.1 0.8 99.7 1963........................ 47.6 21.6 19.8 13.2 2.2 1.2 1.0 106.6 1964........................ 48.7 23.5 22.0 13.7 2.4 1.3 1.1 112.6 1965........................ 48.8 25.5 22.2 14.6 2.7 1.4 1.6 116.8 1966........................ 55.4 30.1 25.5 13.1 3.1 1.8 1.9 130.8 1967........................ 61.5 34.0 32.6 13.7 3.0 1.9 2.1 148.8 1968........................ 68.7 28.7 33.9 14.1 3.1 2.0 2.5 153.0 1969........................ 87.2 36.7 39.0 15.2 3.5 2.3 2.9 186.9 1970........................ 90.4 32.8 44.4 15.7 3.6 2.4 3.4 192.8 1971........................ 86.2 26.8 47.3 16.6 3.7 2.6 3.9 187.1 1972........................ 94.7 32.2 52.6 15.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 207.3 1973........................ 103.2 36.2 63.1 16.3 4.9 3.2 3.9 230.8 1974........................ 119.0 38.6 75.1 16.8 5.0 3.3 5.4 263.2 1975........................ 122.4 40.6 84.5 16.6 4.6 3.7 6.7 279.1 1976........................ 131.6 41.4 90.8 17.0 5.2 4.1 8.0 298.1 1977........................ 157.6 54.9 106.5 17.5 7.3 5.2 6.5 355.6 1978........................ 181.0 60.0 121.0 18.4 5.3 6.6 7.4 399.6 1979........................ 217.8 65.7 138.9 18.7 5.4 7.4 9.3 463.3 1980........................ 244.1 64.6 157.8 24.3 6.4 7.2 12.7 517.1 1981........................ 285.9 61.1 182.7 40.8 6.8 8.1 13.8 599.3 1982........................ 297.7 49.2 201.5 36.3 8.0 8.9 16.2 617.8 1983........................ 288.9 37.0 209.0 35.3 6.1 8.7 15.6 600.6 1984........................ 298.4 56.9 239.4 37.4 6.0 11.4 17.0 666.5 1985........................ 334.5 61.3 265.2 36.0 6.4 12.1 18.5 734.1 1986........................ 349.0 63.1 283.9 32.9 7.0 13.3 19.9 769.1 1987........................ 392.6 83.9 303.3 32.5 7.5 15.1 19.3 854.1 1988........................ 401.2 94.5 334.3 35.2 7.6 16.2 19.9 909.0 1989........................ 445.7 103.3 359.4 34.4 8.7 16.3 22.8 990.7 1990........................ 466.9 93.5 380.0 35.3 11.5 16.7 27.3 1,031.3 1991........................ 467.8 98.1 396.0 42.4 11.1 15.9 22.8 1,054.3 1992........................ 476.0 100.3 413.7 45.6 11.1 17.4 26.5 1,090.5 1993........................ 509.7 117.5 428.3 48.1 12.6 18.8 18.6 1,153.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-22.--REVENUES, BY MAJOR SOURCE, FISCAL YEARS 1962-93 [As a percentage of GDP] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Estate Individual Corporate Social Excise and Customs Miscellaneous Total Fiscal year income income insurance taxes gift duties receipts revenues taxes taxes taxes taxes ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1962........................ 8.2 3.7 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 18.0 1963........................ 8.1 3.7 3.4 2.3 .4 .2 .2 18.2 1964........................ 7.8 3.7 3.5 2.2 .4 .2 .2 18.0 1965........................ 7.3 3.8 3.3 2.2 .4 .2 .2 17.4 1966........................ 7.5 4.1 3.5 1.8 .4 .2 .3 17.7 1967........................ 7.8 4.3 4.1 1.7 .4 .2 .3 18.8 1968........................ 8.1 3.4 4.0 1.7 .4 .2 .3 18.0 1969........................ 9.4 4.0 4.2 1.6 .4 .3 .3 20.2 1970........................ 9.2 3.3 4.5 1.6 .4 .2 .3 19.6 1971........................ 8.2 2.5 4.5 1.6 .4 .2 .4 17.8 1972........................ 8.3 2.8 4.6 1.4 .5 .3 .3 18.1 1973........................ 8.1 2.8 4.9 1.3 .4 .2 .3 18.1 1974........................ 8.5 2.8 5.3 1.2 .4 .2 .4 18.8 1975........................ 8.1 2.7 5.6 1.1 .3 .2 .4 18.5 1976........................ 7.8 2.5 5.4 1.0 .3 .2 .5 17.7 1977........................ 8.2 2.9 5.5 .9 .4 .3 .3 18.5 1978........................ 8.4 2.8 5.6 .9 .2 .3 .3 18.5 1979........................ 9.0 2.7 5.7 .8 .2 .3 .4 19.1 1980........................ 9.2 2.4 6.0 .9 .2 .3 .5 19.6 1981........................ 9.6 2.1 6.2 1.4 .2 .3 .5 20.2 1982........................ 9.5 1.6 6.4 1.2 .3 .3 .5 19.8 1983........................ 8.7 1.1 6.3 1.1 .2 .3 .5 18.1 1984........................ 8.1 1.5 6.5 1.0 .2 .3 .5 18.0 1985........................ 8.4 1.5 6.7 .9 .2 .3 .5 18.5 1986........................ 8.3 1.5 6.7 .8 .2 .3 .5 18.2 1987........................ 8.8 1.9 6.8 .7 .2 .3 .4 19.2 1988........................ 8.3 2.0 7.0 .7 .2 .3 .4 18.9 1989........................ 8.6 2.0 7.0 .7 .2 .3 .4 19.1 1990........................ 8.5 1.7 7.0 .6 .2 .3 .5 18.8 1991........................ 8.2 1.7 7.0 .7 .2 .3 .4 18.6 1992........................ 8.0 1.7 7.0 .8 .2 .3 .4 18.4 1993........................ 8.1 1.9 6.8 .8 .2 .3 .3 18.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-23.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES, FISCAL YEARS 1962-93 [In billions of dollars] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Entitlements National and other Nondefense Net Offsetting Total Fiscal year defense mandatory discretionary interest receipts outlays spending spending ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1962.................................. 52.6 32.3 22.3 6.9 -6.8 106.8 1963.................................. 53.7 33.6 24.6 7.7 -7.9 111.3 1964.................................. 55.0 35.7 27.8 8.2 -7.7 118.5 1965.................................. 51.0 36.1 30.8 8.6 -7.9 118.2 1966.................................. 59.0 39.9 35.1 9.4 -8.4 134.5 1967.................................. 72.0 47.4 38.4 10.3 -10.2 157.5 1968.................................. 82.2 56.1 39.9 11.1 -10.6 178.1 1969.................................. 82.7 61.2 38.7 12.7 -11.0 183.6 1970.................................. 81.9 68.7 42.7 14.4 -11.5 195.6 1971.................................. 79.0 82.7 48.1 14.8 -14.1 210.2 1972.................................. 79.3 96.8 53.8 15.5 -14.1 230.7 1973.................................. 77.1 112.2 57.9 17.3 -18.0 245.7 1974.................................. 80.7 127.1 61.8 21.4 -21.2 269.4 1975.................................. 87.6 164.4 74.9 23.2 -18.3 332.3 1976.................................. 89.9 189.7 85.7 26.7 -19.6 371.8 1977.................................. 97.5 206.6 99.6 29.9 -21.5 409.2 1978.................................. 104.6 228.4 114.1 35.5 -22.8 458.7 1979.................................. 116.8 248.2 123.2 42.6 -25.6 503.5 1980.................................. 134.6 291.5 141.9 52.5 -29.2 590.9 1981.................................. 158.0 340.6 150.2 68.8 -37.9 678.2 1982.................................. 185.9 372.7 140.3 85.0 -36.0 745.8 1983.................................. 209.9 411.6 143.5 89.8 -45.3 808.4 1984.................................. 228.0 406.3 151.6 111.1 -44.2 851.8 1985.................................. 253.1 450.0 163.1 129.5 -47.1 946.4 1986.................................. 273.8 459.7 165.2 136.0 -45.9 990.3 1987.................................. 282.5 470.2 162.4 138.7 -53.0 1,003.9 1988.................................. 290.9 494.2 174.2 151.8 -57.0 1,064.1 1989.................................. 304.0 526.2 185.7 169.3 -63.9 1,143.2 1990.................................. 300.1 567.4 201.6 184.2 -58.8 1,252.7 1991.................................. 319.7 634.2 215.1 194.5 -106.0 1,323.8 1992.................................. 302.6 711.7 233.4 199.4 -68.8 1,380.9 1993.................................. 292.4 762.1 250.1 198.8 -67.1 1,408.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. eTABLE J-24.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES, FISCAL YEARS 1962-93 [As a percentage of GDP] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Entitlements National and other Nondefense Net Offsetting Total Fiscal year Defense mandatory discretionary interest receipts outlays spending spending ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1962.................................. 9.5 5.8 4.0 1.2 -1.2 19.3 1963.................................. 9.2 5.7 4.2 1.3 -1.3 19.0 1964.................................. 8.8 5.7 4.4 1.3 -1.2 18.9 1965.................................. 7.6 5.4 4.6 1.3 -1.2 17.6 1966.................................. 8.0 5.4 4.7 1.3 -1.1 18.2 1967.................................. 9.1 6.0 4.9 1.3 -1.3 19.9 1968.................................. 9.7 6.6 4.7 1.3 -1.2 21.0 1969.................................. 8.9 6.6 4.2 1.4 -1.2 19.8 1970.................................. 8.3 7.0 4.3 1.5 -1.2 19.8 1971.................................. 7.5 7.9 4.6 1.4 -1.3 20.0 1972.................................. 6.9 8.4 4.7 1.4 -1.2 20.1 1973.................................. 6.1 8.8 4.5 1.4 -1.4 19.2 1974.................................. 5.8 9.1 4.4 1.5 -1.5 19.2 1975.................................. 5.8 10.9 5.0 1.5 -1.2 22.0 1976.................................. 5.3 11.3 5.1 1.6 -1.2 22.1 1977.................................. 5.1 10.8 5.2 1.6 -1.1 21.3 1978.................................. 4.9 10.6 5.2 1.6 -1.1 21.3 1979.................................. 4.8 10.2 5.1 1.8 -1.1 20.7 1980.................................. 5.1 11.0 5.4 2.0 -1.1 22.3 1981.................................. 5.3 11.5 5.1 2.3 -1.3 22.9 1982.................................. 6.0 11.9 4.4 2.7 -1.2 23.9 1983.................................. 6.3 12.4 4.4 2.7 -1.4 24.4 1984.................................. 6.2 11.0 4.1 3.0 -1.2 23.0 1985.................................. 6.4 11.3 4.1 3.3 -1.2 23.8 1986.................................. 6.5 10.9 3.9 3.2 -1.1 23.5 1987.................................. 6.3 10.6 3.7 3.1 -1.2 22.5 1988.................................. 6.0 10.3 3.7 3.2 -1.2 22.1 1989.................................. 5.9 10.2 3.6 3.3 -1.2 22.1 1990.................................. 5.5 10.3 3.7 3.4 -1.1 22.8 1991.................................. 5.6 11.2 3.8 3.4 -1.9 23.3 1992.................................. 5.1 12.1 3.9 3.4 -1.2 23.2 1993.................................. 4.6 12.1 4.0 3.2 -1.1 22.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-25.--FEDERAL FINANCES AND THE FEDERAL DEBT, 1955-93 [Dollar amounts in billions] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total deficit Federal debt, end of year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross Held by Government Held by the public --------------------- accounts -------------------- Amount Percentage ---------------------- of GDP Amount Percentage Percentage Amount Percentage of GDP Amount of GDP of GDP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1955...................... -3.0 -.8 274.4 71.5 47.8 12.4 226.6 59.0 1956...................... 3.9 1.0 272.7 65.7 50.5 12.2 222.2 53.5 1957...................... 3.4 .8 272.3 62.3 52.9 12.1 219.3 50.2 1958...................... -2.8 -.6 279.7 62.6 53.3 11.9 226.3 50.6 1959...................... -12.8 -2.7 287.5 60.1 52.8 11.0 234.7 49.0 1960...................... .3 .1 290.5 57.4 53.7 10.6 236.8 46.8 1961...................... -3.3 -.6 292.6 56.6 54.3 10.5 238.4 46.1 1962...................... -7.1 -1.3 302.9 54.7 54.9 9.9 248.0 44.7 1963...................... -4.8 -.8 310.3 53.0 56.3 9.6 254.0 43.4 1964...................... -5.9 -.9 316.1 50.4 59.2 9.5 256.8 41.0 1965...................... -1.4 -.2 322.3 48.0 61.5 9.2 260.8 38.8 1966...................... -3.7 -.5 328.5 44.5 64.8 8.8 263.7 35.7 1967...................... -8.6 -1.1 340.4 43.0 73.8 9.3 266.6 33.7 1968...................... -25.2 -3.0 368.7 43.4 79.1 9.3 289.5 34.1 1969...................... 3.2 .4 365.8 39.5 87.7 9.5 278.1 30.0 1970...................... -2.8 -.3 380.9 38.6 97.7 9.9 283.2 28.7 1971...................... -23.0 -2.2 408.2 38.8 105.1 10.0 303.0 28.8 1972...................... -23.4 -2.0 435.9 38.0 113.6 9.9 322.4 28.1 1973...................... -14.9 -1.2 466.3 36.5 125.4 9.8 340.9 26.7 1974...................... -6.1 -.4 483.9 34.5 140.2 10.0 343.7 24.5 1975...................... -53.2 -3.5 541.9 35.9 147.2 9.7 394.7 26.1 1976...................... -73.7 -4.4 629.0 37.3 151.6 9.0 477.4 28.3 TQ........................ ........ .......... 643.6 36.2 148.1 8.3 495.5 27.8 1977...................... -53.7 -2.8 706.4 36.8 157.3 8.2 549.1 28.6 1978...................... -59.2 -2.7 776.6 36.0 169.5 7.9 607.1 28.2 1979...................... -40.2 -1.7 828.9 34.1 189.2 7.8 639.8 26.3 1980...................... -73.8 -2.8 908.5 34.4 199.2 7.5 709.3 26.8 1981...................... -79.0 -2.7 994.3 33.5 209.5 7.1 784.8 26.5 1982...................... -128.0 -4.1 1,136.8 36.4 217.6 7.0 919.2 29.4 1983...................... -207.8 -6.3 1,371.2 41.3 240.1 7.2 1,131.0 34.1 1984...................... -185.4 -5.0 1,564.1 42.3 264.2 7.1 1,300.0 35.2 1985...................... -212.3 -5.3 1,817.0 45.8 317.6 8.0 1,499.4 37.8 1986...................... -221.2 -5.2 2,120.1 50.3 383.9 9.1 1,736.2 41.1 1987...................... -149.8 -3.4 2,345.6 52.7 457.4 10.3 1,888.1 42.4 1988...................... -155.2 -3.2 2,600.8 54.1 550.5 11.4 2,050.3 42.6 1989...................... -152.5 -2.9 2,867.5 55.4 678.2 13.1 2,189.3 42.3 1990...................... -221.4 -4.0 3,206.3 58.6 796.0 14.6 2,410.4 44.1 1991...................... -269.5 -4.8 3,599.0 63.9 911.1 16.2 2,687.9 47.7 1992...................... -290.4 -4.8 4,002.7 59.4 1,004.0 16.6 2,998.6 49.7 1993\1\................... -322.0 -5.1 4,396.7 69.0 1,092.8 17.2 3,308.8 51.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\1993 figures are estimates. Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1994, and Analytical Perspectives, Fiscal Year 1995. TABLE J-26.--CBO PROJECTIONS OF INTEREST COSTS AND FEDERAL DEBT [By fiscal year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Actual 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net interest outlays (billions of dollars) -------------------------------------------------------------- Interest on public debt (gross interest)\1\...... 293 299 312 331 348 365 385 Interest received by trust funds: Social Security.............................. -27 -30 -34 -37 -42 -47 -52 Other trust funds\2\......................... -55 -58 -56 -57 -58 -60 -61 -------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal................................... -82 -88 -89 -94 -100 -106 -114 -------------------------------------------------------------- Other interest\3\................................ -11 -9 -9 -7 -7 -7 -7 -------------------------------------------------------------- Total, net interest, outlays............... 199 201 214 230 241 252 264 -------------------------------------------------------------- Federal debt, end of year (billions of dollars) -------------------------------------------------------------- Gross Federal debt............................... 4,351 4,693 5,005 5,330 5,673 6,019 6,390 Debt held by Government accounts: Social Security.............................. 366 428 498 573 657 749 848 Other Government accounts\2\................. 738 801 854 910 961 1,011 1,051 -------------------------------------------------------------- Subtotal................................... 1,104 1,229 1,352 1,483 1,618 1,759 1,899 -------------------------------------------------------------- Debt held by the public.......................... 3,247 3,465 3,653 3,846 4,055 4,260 4,492 Debt subject to limit\4\......................... 4,316 4,657 4,968 5,292 5,634 5,980 6,350 -------------------------------------------------------------- Federal debt as a percentage of GDP -------------------------------------------------------------- Debt held by the public.......................... 51.6 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\Excludes interest costs of debt issued by agencies other than the Treasury (primarily deposit insurance agencies). \2\Principally Civil Service Retirement, Military Retirement, Medicare, Unemployment Insurance, and the Highway and the Airport and Airway trust funds. \3\Primarily interest on loans to the public and to the Resolution Trust Corporation and the Bank Insurance Fund. \4\Differs from the gross federal debt primarily because most debt issued by agencies other than the Treasury (currently about $20 billion) is excluded from the debt limit. Note: Projections of interest and debt assume compliance with the discretionary spending caps in the Budget Enforcement Act. Source: Congressional Budget Office. TABLE J-27.--STATUTORY DEBT LIMIT AND DEBT SUBJECT TO LIMIT, 1977- 93 [In billions of dollars] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Debt End of fiscal year Statutory subject to debt limit limit ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1977.......................................... 700.0 700.0 1978.......................................... 798.0 772.7 1979.......................................... 879.0 827.6 1980.......................................... 925.0 908.7 1981.......................................... 1,079.8 998.8 1982.......................................... 1,290.2 1,142.9 1983.......................................... 1,389.0 1,378.0 1984.......................................... 1,573.0 1,573.0 1985.......................................... 1,823.8 1,823.8 1986.......................................... 2,111.0 2,111.0 1987.......................................... 2,800.0 2,336.0 1988.......................................... 2,800.0 2,586.9 1989.......................................... 2,870.0 2,829.8 1990.......................................... 3,195.0 3,161.2 1991.......................................... 4,145.0 3,569.3 1992.......................................... 4,145.0 3,972.6 1993.......................................... 4,900.0 4,315.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Budget of the United States Government, Historical Tables, fiscal year 1995, tables 7.2, 7.3. TABLE J-28.--STATUTORY LIMITS ON FEDERAL DEBT: 1981--CURRENT [Dollars in billions] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount Date and act History of legislation of limit ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- December 19, 1980, 94 Stat. 3261................... Increased the total debt limit to $935.1 billion $935.1 (composed of $400.0 billion of permanent ceiling, $535.1 billion of temporary ceiling). February 7, 1981, 95 Stat. 4....................... Increased the temporary portion of the debt limit 985.0 to $585.0 billion (to a total debt ceiling of $985.0 billion) through September 30, 1980. September 30, 1981, 95 Stat. 955................... Increased the temporary portion of the debt limit 999.8 to $599.8 billion for one day--September 30, 1981. September 30, 1981, 95 Stat. 956................... Increased the temporary portion of the debt limit 1,079.8 to $679.8 billion through September 30, 1982. June 28, 1982, 96 Stat. 130........................ Increased the temporary portion of the debt limit 1,143.1 to $743.1 billion through September 30, 1982. September 30, 1982, 96 Stat. 1156.................. Increased the temporary portion of the debt limit 1,290.2 to $890.2 billion through September 30, 1983. May 26, 1983, 97 Stat. 196......................... Eliminated the distinction between permanent and 1,389.0 temporary limit with the enactment of a single permanent limit. Raised the debt limit to $1,389.0 billion. November 21, 1983, 97 Stat. 1012................... Increased the debt limit to $1,490.0 billion..... 1,490.0 May 25, 1984, 98 Stat. 211......................... Increased the debt limit to $1,520.0 billion..... 1,520.0 July 6, 1984, 98 Stat. 313......................... Increased the debt limit to $1,573.0 billion..... 1,573.0 October 13, 1984, 98 Stat. 475..................... Increased the debt limit to $1,823.8 billion..... 1,823.8 November 14, 1985, 99 Stat. 814.................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $1,903.8 1,903.8 billion through December 6, 1985. December 12, 1985, 99 Stat. 1037................... Increased the debt limit to $2,078.7 billion..... 2,078.7 August 21, 1986, 100 Stat. 818..................... Increased the debt limit to $2,111.0 billion..... 2,111.0 October 21, 1986, 100 Stat. 1874................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $2,300.0 2,300.0 billion through May 15, 1987. May 15, 1987, 101 Stat. 308........................ Increased the debt limit temporarily to $2,320.0 2,320.0 billion through July 17, 1987. July 30, 1987, 101 Stat. 542....................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $2,320.0 2,320.0 billion through August 6, 1987. August 10, 1987, 101 Stat. 550..................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $2,352.0 2,352.0 billion through September 23, 1987. September 29, 1987, 101 Stat. 754.................. Increased the debt limit to $2,800.0 billion..... 2,800.0 August 7, 1989, 103 Stat. 182...................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $2,870.0 2,870.0 billion through October 31, 1989. November 8, 1989, 103 Stat. 830.................... Increased the debt limit to $3,122.7 billion..... 3,122.7 August 9, 1990, 104 Stat. 403...................... Increased the debt limit to $3,195 billion 3,195.0 through October 2, 1990. October 2, 1990, 104 Stat. 878..................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $3,195.0 3,195.0 billion through October 6, 1990. October 9, 1990, 104 Stat. 894..................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $3,195.0 3,195.0 billion through October 19, 1990. October 19, 1990, 104 Stat. 1030................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $3,195.0 3,195.0 billion through October 24, 1990. October 25, 1990, 104 Stat. 1075................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $3,195.0 3,195.0 billion through October 27, 1990. October 28, 1990, 104 Stat. 1086................... Increased the debt limit temporarily to $3,230.0 3,230.0 billion through November 5, 1990. November 5, 1990, 104 Stat. 1388................... Increased the debt limit to $4,145.0 billion..... 4,145.0 April 6, 1993, 107 Stat. 42........................ Increased the debt limit temporarily to $4,370.0 4,370.0 billion through September 30, 1993. August 10, 1993, 107 Stat. 312..................... Increased the debt limit to $4,900.0 billion..... 4,900.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Historical table 7.3, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 1995. TABLE J-29.--HISTORICAL TABLE: BUDGET RECONCILIATION BILLS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Reconciliation bills Date of enactment ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Omnibus Reconciliation December 5, 1980 (P.L. 96-499). Act of 1980 (H.R. 7765). Omnibus Budget August 13, 1981 (P.L. 97-35). Reconciliation Act of 1981 (H.R. 3982). Omnibus Budget September 8, 1982 (P.L. 97-253). Reconciliation Act of 1982 (H.R. 6955). Tax Equity and Fiscal September 3, 1982 (P.L. 97-248). Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) (H.R. 4961). Omnibus Budget April 18, 1984 (P.L. 98-270). Reconciliation Act of 1983 (H.R. 4169). Deficit Reduction Act of July 18, 1984 (P.L. 98-369). 1984 (H.R. 4170). Consolidated Omnibus April 7, 1986 (P.L. 99-272). Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (COBRA) (H.R. 3128). Omnibus Budget October 21, 1986 (P.L. 99-509). Reconciliation Act of 1986 (H.R. 5300). Omnibus Budget December 22, 1987 (P.L. 100-203). Reconciliation Act of 1987 (H.R. 3545). Omnibus Budget December 19, 1989 (P.L. 101-239) Reconciliation Act of 1989 (H.R. 3299). Omnibus Budget November 5, 1990 (P.L. 101-508). Reconciliation Act of 1990 (H.R. 5835). Omnibus Budget August 10, 1993 (P.L. 103-66). Reconciliation Act of 1993 (H.R. 2264). ------------------------------------------------------------------------