1. See NRC (1999, 2001) for a more detailed discussion of these weaknesses.
2. See Cancian, M. et al. (1999); Cancian et al., (2000a); and Cancian, M., Haveman, R., Meyer, D.R., and Wolfe, B. (2000b).
3. This 2-month definition of a leaver was used in Cancian et al. (1999) and is being used by the leavers studies sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
4. Data for November, 1992 are missing for all observations.
5. Altemative definitions were examined and the caseload compositions based on those definitions are reported in Table 13-B 1 in Appendix 13-B.
6. Outcomes of leavers who did not return to AFDC in the follow-up period also were examined. As expected, these "continuous leavers" had better outcomes than those who returned to AFDC.
7. ASL was calculated as the TTO measure divided by the total number of spells.8These studies used similar definitions of leavers and similar research designs, but covered different time periods and did not match methodologies exactly. Furthermore, the compositions of caseloads from each study area may be quite different although these compositional differences have not yet been explored.
9. Use of medical assistance in the quarter of exit is not available.
10. The Cancian et al. (1999) figures exclude disappearers.
11. Those who do not appear in UI records in a quarter are assumed to have no earnings. Therefore, many observations have zero earnings. The next table shows mean and median earnings, not including quarters in which the case does not appear in UI records.
12. Their figure includes a fifth quarter after exit. Furthermore, our figure includes only case heads over the age of 21 in 1995, while their figure includes case heads over the age of 18 in 1995.
13. Earnings for those who returned in the months and quarters in which they received welfare will necessarily be lower because their eligibility for benefits is tied to earnings and income. Table 13-B2 in Appendix 13-B shows mean and median quarterly earnings for leavers during quarters in which no welfare benefits were received.
14. Other characteristics, of course, could be used to identify high-barrier cases (SSI status for mother and child, for example). Different definitions were examined and are reported in the Table 13-B3 in Appendix 13-B.
15. In March 1996, Wisconsin's Pay for Performance policy went into effect, which included fullfamily sanctions for those who did not participate in 20-40 hours per week of the Job Opportunities and Basic Skills (JOBS) program (Cancian et al., 1999).
16. Other explanatory variables will not be discussed. Their signs are consistent across all models. All are significant predictors of the probability of leaving welfare except for quadratic terms for the age of the case head in the second model, the dummy variable for Hispanic ethnicity (in all four models), the number of children under age 5 (in the third model), and the legal immigrant dummy variable (in the third and fourth models).
17. Cancian et al. (2000b) conduct similar simulations, although definitions of high-barrier cases differ from those presented here.
18. This mean is based on 26 observations, however.
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