Spending on Social Welfare Programs in Rich and Poor States. Final Report.. 2. Results by Quartile

07/01/2004

Exhibit III-11 shows results for the same regression model estimated separately for each of the 4 quartiles defined by mean real per capita personal income. Below, we summarize the general findings from this analysis by quartile and spending category for the explanatory variables of greatest interest: (1) fiscal capacity, (2) federal grants, (3) need variables, (4) state unemployment rates, and (5) state effects.

Variable Q 1
CA
Q 2
CA
Q 3
CA
Q 4
CA
Q 1
M
Q 2
M
Q 3
M
Q 4
M
Exhibit III-11.
Regression Coefficient Estimates
Adjusted R-Squared 0.90 0.74 0.87 0.37 0.93 0.88 0.89 0.89
Constant 231.38**
(6.22)
-288.79**
(3.21)
-156.30**
(5.23)
77.23
(1.49)
-38.83
(0.82)
42.12
(0.53)
-202.85**
(3.42)
-164.18*
(2.22)
Per Capita Personal Income -0.0078**
(9.07)
0.0068**
(2.84)
0.0012
(1.14)
-0.0042
(1.88)
0.0032**
(2.93)
0.0001
(0.03)
0.0053**
(2.54)
0.0084**
(2.62)
Federal Grants for Non-social Welfare 0.0284**
(2.66)
0.0119
(0.41)
0.0222
(1.80)
-0.0339
(1.53)
-0.0077
(0.56)
0.0081
(0.32)
0.0161
(0.66)
0.0311
(0.99)
Federal Grants for Social Welfare 0.1547**
(7.33)
0.0527
(1.78)
0.1526**
(10.19)
-0.0275
(1.70)
0.3545**
(13.21)
0.2074**
(8.01)
0.3467**
(11.65)
0.3422**
(14.77)
Population Density 0.054**
(4.10)
0.40**
(3.43)
1.13**
(8.75)
1.01**
(3.04)
-0.04*
(2.38)
-0.04
(0.36)
0.35
(1.36)
-0.04
(0.07)
Unemployment Per Capita 841.88**
(3.17)
1277.17**
(4.28)
386.67**
(2.78)
139.93
(0.59)
1081.63**
(3.20)
77.50
(0.30)
451.51
(1.64)
382.24
(1.14)
Poverty Per Capita (moving average) -42.40
(1.01)
499.69**
(3.50)
164.87**
(3.50)
94.24
(1.51)
-130.43*
(2.44)
94.71
(0.76)
84.89
(0.91)
-4.42
(0.05)
Q means Quartiles
CA means Cash Assistance, M means Medicaid, NSS means Non-health Social Services, PH means Public Hospital, NSWS means Non-social Welfare.
T-statistics are in parentheses.
** Significant at the 1% level.
* Significant at the 5% level.
Variable Q 1
NSS
Q 2
NSS
Q 3
NSS
Q 4
NSS
Q 1
PH
Q 2
PH
Q 3
PH
Q 4
PH
Q 1
NSWS
Q 2
NSWS
Q 3
NSWS
Q 4
NSWS
Exhibit III-11.
Regression Coefficient Estimates(continued)
Adjusted R-Squared 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.80 0.87 0.90 0.89 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.95
Constant 98.43
(1.78)
-100.50
(1.13)
25.85
(0.39)
100.31*
(1.95)
43.61
(1.17)
367.17**
(5.71)
-91.59
(1.48)
-221.98**
(4.69)
405.14
(0.47)
4118.30**
(5.39)
2099.03**
(5.48)
1797.11**
(3.68)
Per Capita Personal Income 0.0063**
(4.89)
0.0097**
(4.10)
0.0049*
(2.09)
0.0048*
(2.14)
0.0025**
(2.94)
-0.0056**
(3.29)
-0.0007
(0.33)
0.0024
(1.18)
0.1496**
(7.57)
0.0529**
(2.62)
0.0798**
(5.86)
0.0050
(0.23)
Federal Grants for Non-social Welfare 0.0307*
(1.93)
0.0063
(0.22)
0.1842**
(6.75)
-0.0155
(0.70)
0.0415**
(3.87)
-0.0017
(0.08)
0.0308
(1.21)
-0.0303
(1.50)
-0.4988*
(2.03)
-0.3084
(1.27)
0.5041**
(3.19)
0.7086**
(3.40)
Federal Grants for Social Welfare 0.0401
(1.28)
0.0406
(1.39)
0.1402**
(4.22)
-0.0461**
(2.85)
0.805**
(3.80)
0.0561**
(2.65)
0.1205**
(3.88)
0.0281
(1.89)
-0.3581
(0.74)
0.7400**
(2.95)
0.0314
(0.16)
0.0767
(0.50)
Population Density -0.07**
(3.39)
-0.31**
(2.71)
-1.59**
(5.54)
-0.34
(1.03)
-0.06**
(4.90)
-0.30**
(3.59)
0.32
(1.18)
2.87**
(9.39)
0.81**
(2.69)
2.00*
(2.05)
0.88
(0.53)
17.17**
(5.45)
Unemployment Per Capita 310.34
(0.79)
94.33
(0.32)
196.59
(0.64)
-452.51
(1.93)
-218.42
(0.82)
594.61**
(2.79)
-420.39
(1.46)
372.15
(1.73)
15519.00**
(2.54)
11648.00**
(4.60)
5923.35**
(3.32)
-5225.86*
(2.35)
Poverty Per Capita (moving average) -64.62
(1.03)
40.52
(0.29)
-258.74**
(2.47)
89.02
(1.43)
-36.41
(0.86)
13.34
(0.13)
-69.47
(0.71)
56.02
(0.98)
1461.13
(1.51)
29.16
(0.02)
-2192.36**
(3.62)
162.03
(0.28)
Q means Quartiles
CA means Cash Assistance, M means Medicaid, NSS means Non-health Social Services, PH means Public Hospital, NSWS means Non-social Welfare.
T-statistics are in parentheses.
** Significant at the 1% level.
* Significant at the 5% level.

 

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