Understanding the factors associated with AABD service utilization is of particular interest in light of the policy changes that are likely to emanate from welfare reform. As we have seen, multi-service use has increased over time among the disabled children identified in this study. In order to assess the risk of AABD program participation over time in Illinois, we have focused on the population of children identified by our Medicaid service selection criterion. We would expect all of these children to be at risk for AABD. We recognize that there are certainly children at risk who would not have prior Medicaid program participation. Again, logistic regression was used to predict the probability of AABD participation within 3 years of participation in the Medicaid program. All children receiving Medicaid reimbursed services in FY 1990 through 1992 were included in the model.
Table 19 presents the results of this analysis. Females were nearly 20% less likely than males to participated in AABD within three years. Espanic and African American children were approximately 1.3 times more likely than white children to participate in AABD. Children over the age of 7 were more likely to become AABD participants within 3 years than were children ages 6 and 7. Children under age 6 were less likely to become AABD participants. The method of the Medicaid selection was also included in the model. Interestingly, children included in the Medicaid program population because of a combination of mental and non-mental diagnoses during a fiscal year were nearly three an a half times more likely to become AABD participants than children included because of one or more non-mental disorder diagnoses. This strong effect indicates that children with the more complex conditions were most likely to receive AABD. The likelihood of participating in AABD appeared to increase over fiscal years 1990 to 1992. Children participating in the Medicaid program in fiscal year 1991 were over two and a half times more likely to receive AABD within three years than were children in Medicaid in FY 1990. Children in Medicaid in FY 1992 were over three times as likely.