The Risk of Needing LTSS: DYNASIM Projections. Summary

07/30/2015

  • Population aging--particularly rapid growth in those ages 85 and older--will lead to increased demand for LTSS
    • Especially steep increases anticipated starting about 10 years from now; 2024-2044 should be a period of growing strain.
  • Risk of needing LTSS is common: about half of people who survive to age 65 will eventually need HIPAA-level LTSS
    • On average, need lasts about two years, and formal use lasts about one year--more than double for users; informal supports are extremely important.
    • About 14% need help >= 5 years; 6% use formal services >= 5 years
  • Some population subgroups face higher than average risk
    • Women, unmarried people; complex risks by socioeconomic status
  • Government and families are the main LTSS payers
    • Medicaid (state and federal) and out of pocket

An Aging Population Will Raise the Demand for LTSS

Area chart.

We project that formal LTSS use and costs will roughly track the growth in the aged population

Line chart.

Lifetime Risk Estimates

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