The Risk of Needing LTSS: DYNASIM Projections. Caveat: Results Sensitive to Many Choices


  • Lifetime need estimate is higher when one includes lower levels of needs (e.g., multiple IADLs but no ADLs, moderate cognitive impairment)
    • Closer to 70 percent will ever have LTSS needs
  • Lifetime costs and payer mix are sensitive to whether you include rental component of residential care
  • Payer mix is sensitive to whether you focus on characteristics of payments or of people
  • Lifetime expenses are sensitive to whether you consider interest payments that a lump sum could accrue (present value) or whether you consider payments as they arise
    • Appendix versus body of brief
  • Lifetime expenses are sensitive to treatment of lower disability in nursing homes

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"LTCRisk.pdf" (pdf, 321.93Kb)

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