A Report on the Actuarial, Marketing, and Legal Analyses of the CLASS Program. Appendix Na: Agenda, List of Participants, and Speaker Bios

10/14/2011

CLASS Act Models Meeting

Agenda

September 22, 2010
9:00 am - 12:00 pm

Hubert H. Humphrey Building, Room 505A
200 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, DC 20201

Contact: Marie Belt or Goldwyn Smith at 202 690 6443

9:00 - 9:15: Welcome and Introductions

  • Richard Frank, PhD: Deputy Assistant Secretary for Disability, Aging and Long-Term Care Policy, HHS

9:15 - 9:45: Actuarial Research Corporation (ARC) CLASS Model

  • John Wilkin: Senior Actuary, Actuarial Research Corporation

9:45 - 10:00: Review of the ARC CLASS Model

  • Steve Goss: Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

10:00 - 10:15: Questions and Comments on the ARC CLASS Model

10:15 - 10:45: Avalere Long-Term Care Policy Simulator (LTC-PS)

  • Anne Tumlinson, Senior Vice President, Avalere Health
  • Eric Hammelman, Director, Avalere Health

10:45 - 11:00 – Review of the Avalere LTC-PS

  • Richard Johnson: Senior Fellow and Director, Program on Retirement Policy, Urban Institute

11:00 - 11:15: Questions and Comments on the Avalere LTC-PS

11:15 - 12:00: Structured Discussion

  • Do the models incorporate realistic assumptions related to incidence/continuance of functional limitations and trends in disability? Are the assumptions related to the prevalence and trends in cognitive impairment reasonable?
  • Are there alternative approaches to modeling the relationship between CLASS participation and premiums?
  • Is potential adverse selection adequately incorporated into the models?

12:00: Adjourn

 

CLASS Act Models Meeting

September 22, 2010

Jim Baumgardner
Deputy Assistant Director
Health and Human Resources Division
Congressional Budget Office
2nd & D Sts., SW
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-0810
Jim.baumgardner@cbo.gov

Jason Brown
Acting Director
Office of Economic Policy
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Jason.brown@do.treas.gov
202 622 1757

Rick Foster
Chief Actuary
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
US Department of Health and Human Services
Richard.Foster@cms.hhs.gov

Richard Frank, PhD
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Disability, Aging and Long-Term Care Policy
HHS / ASPE
200 Independence Avenue, SW
Room 424E
Washington, D.C. 20201
202-690-6443
Richard.Frank@hhs.gov

Stephen Goss
Chief Actuary
Office of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
6401 Security Blvd.
Rm. 700 Altmeyer Bldg
Baltimore, MD 21235
410-965-3000
Stephen.C.Goss@ssa.gov

Robert Gordon
Associate Director for Education, Income Maintaince and Labor
Office of Management and Budget
rgordon@omb.eop.gov

Sherry Glied
Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation
U. S. Department of Health and Human Services
200 Independence Avenue, SW Room 415-F
Washington, D.C. 20201
202-690-7858
sherry.glied@hhs.gov

Kathy Greenlee
Assistant Secretary for Aging
Administration on Aging
Department of Health and Human Services
Washington, DC 20201
202-401-4541
Kathy.Greenlee@aoa.hhs.gov

Stuart Hagan
Senior Analyst
Health and Human Resources Division
Congressional Budget Office
2nd & D Sts., SW
Washington, DC 20515
202-226-2666
Stuart.hagan@cbo.gov

Eric Hammelman, CFA
Senior Manager, Data Analytics
Avalere Health LLC
1350 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 900
Washington, DC 20036
202.207.1303 (tel)
202.467.4455 (fax)
ehammelman@avalerehealth.net

Richard W. Johnson
Senior Fellow and Director, Program on Retirement Policy
The Urban Institute
2100 M Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20037
Voice: 202-261-5541
rjohnson@urban.org

Jake Kaplan
Program Examiner
Income Maintenance Branch
Office of Management and Budget
202-395-7798
Jacob_Kaplan@omb.eop.gov

Ruth Katz
Associate Deputy Assistant Secretary
Disability, Aging and Long-Term Care Policy
HHS / ASPE
200 Independence Avenue, SW
Room 424E
Washington, D.C. 20201
202-690-6443
Ruth.Katz@hhs.gov

Richard Kronick
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Office of Health Policy
HHS / ASPE
200 Independence Avenue, SW
Room 447D
Washington, D.C. 20201
202-690-6870
Richard.Kronick@hhs.gov

Helen Levy
Senior Economist
Council of Economic Advisers
hlevy@cea.eop.gov
(202) 395 - 1410

Christen Linke-Young
Office of Health Reform
US Department of Health and Human Services
Hubert Humphrey Building 749-D
202 690 5488
Christen.Young@hhs.gov

Timothy P. Love
White House
Timothy_P_Love@who.omb.eop.gov

Barbara Manard, PhD
Vice President
LTC/Health Strategies
American Association of Homes and Services for the Aging
202.508.9835
BManard@aahsa.org

Randall Mariger
Senior Economist
Office of Economic Policy
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Randall.mariger@do.treas.gov
202-622-0542

William Marton
Director
Division of Disability and Aging Policy
HHS / ASPE
200 Independence Avenue, SW
Room 424E
Washington, D.C. 20201
202-690-6443
William.Marton@hhs.gov

Alexandre Mas
Alexandre_Mas@omb.eop.gov
(Assistant) Emily Langner
Assistant phone: 202 395 1264
Assistant e-mail: elangner@omb.eop.gov

Gordon Mermin
Senior Economist
Office of Management and Budget
202 395 3423
Gmermin@omb.eop.gov

Don Moulds
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation
U. S. Department of Health and Human Services
200 Independence Avenue, SW Room 415-F
Washington, D.C. 20201
202 690 7858
donald.moulds@hhs.gov

Emma Sandoe
Budget Analyst
U. S. Department of Health and Human Services
Assistant Secretary for Financial Resources
200 Independence Avenue, SW Room 529-G-50
Washington, DC 20201
202 690 6788
Emma.sandoe@hhs.gov

John Shatto, F.S.A.
Director, Medicare and Medicaid Cost Estimates Group
Office of the Actuary, CMS
410 786 0706
John.shatto@cms.hhs.gov

Samuel Shipley
Program Analyst
HHS / ASPE / DALTCP
200 Independence Avenue, SW, 424E
Washington, D.C. 20201
202-690-6443
Samuel.shipley@hhs.gov

Jack Smalligan
Branch Chief
Income Maintenance Branch
Office of Management and Budget
202 395 7759
JSmalligan@omb.eop.gov

Paul Spitalnic
Director, Parts C & D Actuarial Group
Office of the Actuary, CMS
410 786 2328
Paul.spitalnic@cms.hhs.gov

Anne Tumlinson
Senior Vice President
Avalere Health LLC
1350 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Suite 900
Washington, DC 20036
202 207 1314 (p)
atumlinson@avalerehealth.net

Pat Vinkenes
Program Examiner
Income Maintenance Branch
Office of Management and Budget
202-395-3602
PVinkenes@omb.eop.gov

John Wilkin
Senior Actuary
Actuarial Research Corporation
410 740 9194
jwilkin@aresearch.com

John Wren
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Planning, Policy and Evaluation
Administration on Aging
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Phone: 202-357-3460
John.Wren@aoa.hhs.gov

Robert Yee, FSA, MAAA
Director of Consulting Services
Strategic Health Management Corporation
272 Santa Paula Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94127
415-425-1980
bob.yee@shmcorp.net

 

CLASS Act Models Meeting

September 22, 2010

Speaker Bios

STEPHEN C. GOSS
Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Steve Goss is currently Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration. Mr. Goss joined the Office of the Chief Actuary in 1973 after graduating from the University of Virginia with a Masters Degree in Mathematics. He graduated from the University of Pennsylvania in 1971 with a Bachelors degree in mathematics and economics. He has worked in areas related to health insurance as well as pension, disability, and survivor protection. Mr. Goss has written articles and actuarial studies on several topics and has made presentations and participated in panel discussions at numerous conferences. He has worked closely with members of the executive branch, members of Congress and their staff, and numerous commissions, as well as with private organizations. Mr. Goss is a member of the Society of Actuaries, the American Academy of Actuaries, the National Academy of Social Insurance, the Social Insurance Committee of the American Academy of Actuaries, and the Social Security Retirement and Disability Income Committee of the Society of Actuaries.

ERIC HAMMELMAN
AvalereHealth

Eric Hammelman, Director, provides data-driven analysis of the impact of various legislative and policy changes on the healthcare industry, with a specific focus on reimbursement for providers. Prior to joining Avalere, Eric was an Associate Analyst with J.P.Morgan, where he analyzed healthcare service companies and provided investment advice to institutional investors. He built financial and industry models for hospitals, nursing homes, dialysis, hospice, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical labs, inpatient rehab, long-term acute care, and physician groups. He also analyzed payment policies for each of these areas, including Medicare, Medicaid, and private payers.

Eric has a Bachelors of Music Performance from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He also earned an M.B.A. from the Marshall School of Business (University of Southern California), as well as a Masters of Music Performance from the Mannes College of Music in New York, N.Y. Eric has passed all three levels of the CFA exam.

RICHARD JOHNSON
Urban Institute

Richard W. Johnson, is a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, where he directs the Program on Retirement Policy. An economist specializing in health and income security at older ages, he has written extensively about the availability and cost of health insurance in later life, particularly retiree health benefits, and has projected health care cost burdens for future generations of retirees. His long-term care research includes studies of family care’s impact on nursing home admissions, decisions to purchase private long-term care insurance, and the effects of demographic change on the future demand for paid care services. He has testified before Congress about the family costs of elder care and about gaps in health insurance coverage among older adults who have not yet qualified for Medicare. Dr. Johnson is also an expert on older Americans’ employment and retirement decisions. He received an A.B. from Princeton University and a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania, both in economics.

ANNE TUMLINSON
AvalereHealth

Anne Tumlinson, Senior Vice President, leads projects and advises clients on a variety of post-acute and long-term care issues. These issues include private financing of long-term care, expansion of home- and community-based care, unification of the Medicare post-acute care benefit, integration of acute and long-term care, and reform of the U.S. long-term care system. Anne established the Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Practice at Avalere and, for several years, directed the firm's post-acute and long-term care portfolio of engagements with government, foundation, and commercial clients.

Prior to Avalere, Anne led Medicaid and long-term care policy for the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Before joining OMB, Anne conducted health services research as a Senior Research Associate for LifePlans, Inc., and before that served as a legislative assistant on health and long-term care policy in the office of Rep. John Lewis (D-GA).

Anne holds a B.A. in Psychology from Furman University in Greenville, S.C., and a M.M.H.S. from the Heller School at Brandeis University.

JOHN WILKIN
Actuarial Research Corporation

John Wilkin has been with Actuarial Research Corporation since 1987 and he has been involved in long-term care insurance ever since. During the late 1980s and the 1990s, Mr. Wilkin worked with several insurance companies on designing, pricing, and reserving their long-term care insurance products. He also was an active member in several professional organizations concerned with the development of long-term care insurance, including the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Long-Term Care Section Council, the SOA Long-Term Care Experience Committee, the SOA Long-Term Care Valuation Committee, and the NAIC Ad Hoc Actuarial Group. Through the Experience Committee, his actuarial analysis of utilization rates from the 1985 National Long Term Care Survey was published in the Transactions, Reports 1988-89-90, through the Long-Term Care Valuation Committee he contributed to the Transactions XLVII article Long-Term Care Valuation Insurance Methods, and through the NAIC Ad Hoc Group he worked with a team of actuaries in the preparation of three reports to the NAIC on inflation protection and non-forfeiture benefits in long-term care insurance. Mr. Wilkin is responsible for the development of the ARC Long Term Care Pricing and Reserving Model, which was used by the U.S. Federal Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to help in the review of offerors of long-term care insurance to federal employees. Since 2000, Mr. Wilkin has done several studies on LTC insurance as well as served as an expert witness in class-action law suits involving the pricing of LTC insurance policies. Examples of the studies include one on claims experience by diagnosis at underwriting and another on the effect of lapse experience on coverage at time of claim. Mr. Wilkin is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and has a B.A. degree from The Johns Hopkins University.

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