The Medicare Advantage Program in 2014. Since the Affordable Care Act: Medicare Advantage Enrollment Has Increased By Over 30 Percent

04/07/2014

As discussed earlier, since the Affordable Care Act was enacted, actual MA enrollment has exceeded previous projections.24 Figure 1 and Figure 2 show that Medicare Advantage enrollment and penetration are at an all-time high. Nationwide, approximately 15 million Medicare beneficiaries25 are now enrolled in an MA plan, which represents nearly 30 percent of all beneficiaries in the program. MA enrollment has increased by nearly 38 percent since 2010 (when the Affordable Care Act was enacted), and by more than 25 percent since the transition to FFS-based payment rates began, and enrollment is projected to continue increasing.26

Figure 2

Trends in Medicare Advantage Penetration Rates, 1996-2014

Figure 2: Trends in Medicare Advantage Penetration Rates, 1996-2014

Notes: Penetration rate represents private plan enrollment as a percentage of total Medicare beneficiaries with beneficiaries with HI and/or SMI coverage. Excludes Cost plans, PACE, Demos, and Pilots. The MMA required a transition from Medicare+Choice to the Medicare Advantage program, which began in 2006. Enrollment for 1996-1997 reflects risk plan enrollment. Enrollment for 1998-2005 reflects Medicare+Choiceenrollment.Source: ASPE analysis of CMS Enrollment Data; Medicare Trustees Report, 2011 and 2013


24 Gretchen Jacobson, Tricia Neuman and Jennifer Huang, “Projecting Medicare Advantage Enrollment: Expect the Unexpected?,” Kaiser Family Foundation, June 2013, accessed at http://kff.org/medicare/perspective/projecting-medicare-advantage-enroll....

25 Medicare Advantage/Part D Contract and Enrollment Data, Contract Summary, February 2014, accessed at http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trend....

26 FY 2015 President’s Budget, Technical Budget Analyses, “Table 25–3 Baseline Beneficiary Projections For Major Benefit Programs,” accessed at http://www.whitehouse.gov/system/files/omb/budget/fy2015/assets/t....

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