The Lewin Group adapted the quantitative model to test hypothetical scenarios of company decision making. Modeling of the scenarios made it possible to examine whether a particular product development opportunity might appear more or less attractive to pharmaceutical companies and their investors. The scenarios help to illustrate some of the key barriers and other limitations to development of medications for cocaine abuse, as well as the extent to which certain types of financial and policy options might reduce such barriers.
The scenarios are entirely hypothetical works drafted by The Lewin Group. Aspects of the scenarios were drawn from the literature on drug development as well as information gleaned from the market analysis, case studies, interviews with private firms, and other sources used for this study. The scenarios do not represent any suggestion or intent by the government to adopt any policies described in the scenarios. Certain policy options posed in the scenarios are already in existence, e.g., orphan drug or similar status; others have been discussed in the 1995 IOM report referenced in this study.