Market Barriers to the Development of Pharmacotherapies for the Treatment of Cocaine Abuse and Addiction: Final Report. Market Analysis for a Prospective Cocaine Medication

09/12/1997

We performed a market analysis for a prospective cocaine medication from a pharmaceutical company's perspective. The purpose of this market analysis was to estimate how costs and revenues would be accrued over time in the development and commercialization of a prospective cocaine medication.

We first focused on estimating the market size for substance abuse treatment, and, more specifically, for cocaine treatment. Also, we described both the revenue potential and potential sources of payment for cocaine treatment.

As such, we compiled data on the following:

  • the prevalence and incidence of opiate and cocaine addiction (including available demographic information such as age, sex, and income of addicted individuals)
  • current rates of treatment for opiate and cocaine dependence
  • existing patterns of service delivery and financing for drug treatment

We relied primarily on data in the public domain. Data sources, grouped according to the type of information contained in the data set, are shown in Figure 1 (below).

Type of Information Data Sources Utilized
Figure 1: Public Data Sources for the Market Analysis, by Type of Data
Need for Treatment
  • HHS/SAMHSA Treatment Requirements Table
  • ONDCP: Spending on Illicit Drugs
  • Rand Corp: Modeling the Demand for Cocaine.
  • U.S. Senate Committee on Judiciary Hard Core Cocaine Addicts
  • Institute of Medicine Report Treating Drug Problems
  • National Comorbidity Survey

Abt Associates Report: Synthetic Estimation Applied to Prevalence of Drug Use

Service Utilization and Financing
  • ONDCP Drug Control Budget
  • NASADAD Report on State Substance Abuse Spending
  • SAMHSA Surveys of Providers

- Substance Abuse 

- Mental Health

In addition, we conducted a limited but targeted literature search of the gray literature (e.g., MEDLARS, Dialog, National Newspaper Index, other published studies and commissioned reports, and product packaging and marketing materials) to look for existing market size estimates of the anti-depressant drug market that we could compare to our opiate and cocaine addiction market size estimates.