How Well Have Rural and Small Metropolitan Labor Markets Absorbed Welfare Recipients?. Results for Jackson, Tennessee

04/01/2001

Initially, we planned on including Jackson, Tennessee as another region in our study. However, data quality issues precluded our use of Jackson as a region. In examining ES-202 data for Jackson, we found a sharp increase in total employment, especially between 1996 and 1998 (19.4 percent). Other sources (Census Bureau and the Tennessee labor department) reported smaller employment increases during these years. For example, the state reported an increase of 4.3 percent for this region. Given this discrepancy, we excluded the region from our analysis.

Exhibits F.1 and F.2 present the results of our economic model using BLS data for Jackson. Between 1993 and 1996, according to the data, both employment and wages increased in Jackson. Employment increased by 10.4 percent, compared to an average of 9.2 percent for the 12 regions. Wages increased by 1.5 percent compared to an average decrease of 0.4 percent for the 12 regions and 0.1 percent for the U.S. The maximum impact of welfare reform on employment was negative in this period, because Jackson experienced an increase in welfare caseloads during this time.

Exhibit F.1
Percent Change in Employment and Wages in Jackson, Tennessee, 1993-1996
  Jackson, Tennessee 12 Region Average U.S. Average
Demand Shift 10.9 9.1 8.7
Supply Shift 9.8 9.4 8.8
Change in Employment 10.4 9.2 8.7
  • Due to Demand Shift
6.2 5.2 5.0
  • Due to Supply Shift
4.2 4.0 3.7
Max Impact of Welfare Reform -0.1 0.4 0.2
Change in Wages 1.5 -0.4 -0.1
  • Due to Demand Shift
15.6 13.0 12.5
  • Due to Supply Shift
-14.1 -13.4 -12.5
Max Impact of Welfare Reform 0.4 -1.4 -0.8
Source: Lewin calculations using ES-202, NISP, OES, and BLS education and training requirements data.

Between 1996 and 1998, analysis of the BLS data found that both employment and wages increased in Jackson, Tennessee and the increases were much higher than the average increase in the 12 regions and in the U.S. Employment increased 19.4 percent compared to an average of 5.6 percent in the 12 regions. Wages increased 6.6 percent compared to an average of 2.1 percent in the 12 regions. The magnitude of the supply and demand shifts are substantially larger than in the other regions and the U.S. We believe these findings are unreliable for the 1996 to 1998 period given the unreliability of the employment data. Therefore, we decided not to report the findings in the full report.

Exhibit F.2
Percent Change in Employment and Wages in Jackson, Tennessee, 1996-1998
  Jackson, Tennessee 12 Region Average U.S. Average
Demand Shift 21.4 6.3 8.2
Supply Shift 16.8 4.8 5.6
Change in Employment 19.4 5.6 7.1
  • Due to Demand Shift
12.2 3.6 4.7
  • Due to Supply Shift
7.2 2.1 2.4
Max Impact of Welfare Reform 1.0 0.6 0.7
Change in Wages 6.6 2.1 3.8
  • Due to Demand Shift
30.6 9.0 11.8
  • Due to Supply Shift
-23.9 -6.9 -7.9
Max Impact of Welfare Reform -3.2 -2.0 -2.5
Source: Lewin calculations using ES-202, NISP, OES, and BLS education and training requirements data

Endnotes

(1) We use the year 1994 because CPS made significant changes in design starting in 1994 and we do not feel estimates from 1993 are comparable to estimates from later years. [ Back to text ]