We used the NISP to convert payroll by industry to payroll by occupation in our study regions. This conversion methodology is similar to the one we employed to convert employment by industry to employment by occupation, with one exception: we only had the 1998 NISP for payroll, whereas we had the NISP for employment for all years. Therefore, by using the 1998 NISP to convert payroll by industry to payroll by occupation for 1993, 1996, and 1998, we were implicitly making the assumption that the distribution of payroll by occupation in an industry did not change by region or by year. We used the CPS March Supplement for 1994, 1996, and 1998 to test the plausibility of this assumption. We compared the distribution of payroll by occupation by skill level in an industry for urban (MSA) versus rural (non-MSA) areas and for four geographic regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) across the three years. We found that the distribution of payroll by skill level in one-digit industries was consistent across four regions and urban versus rural areas for most industries.
Examining the CPS employment and payroll shares over time, we found that the share of low-skill employment was relatively constant over time (about 28 percent of employment was low-skill), while the percent of payroll declined over time (the share of low-skill payroll declined from 18 to 16 percent). This implied that the gap between low-skill and high-skill wages increased over time. Examining the NISP, we found a slight increase in low-skill employment over time (from 41 to 42 percent). Therefore, by applying the 1998 NISP wage distribution to the earlier years, and not allocating a smaller share of payroll in the earlier years (because the share of low-skill employment was smaller), we were implicitly assuming that the gap between low-skill and high-skill wages increased over time, similar to the CPS analysis.
Exhibit B.1
Percent Distribution of Payroll, 1994
By Industry, Skill Category, and Region
Industry |
Skill Level |
U.S. |
MSA |
Non-MSA |
Northeast |
Midwest |
South |
West |
---|
Agriculture |
Low-Skill |
50.9 |
49.8 |
52.5 |
39.2 |
43.9 |
49.5 |
62.0 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
25.2 |
23.5 |
28.2 |
35.1 |
24.7 |
25.6 |
21.6 |
High-Skill |
23.9 |
26.7 |
19.3 |
25.7 |
31.5 |
24.9 |
16.4 |
Mining |
Low-Skill |
9.1 |
8.3 |
10.2 |
25.5 |
8.3 |
7.7 |
8.8 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
50.0 |
36.6 |
71.1 |
46.7 |
50.0 |
45.5 |
64.0 |
High-Skill |
40.9 |
55.0 |
18.7 |
27.8 |
41.8 |
46.8 |
27.2 |
Construction |
Low-Skill |
14.5 |
13.3 |
19.8 |
14.2 |
13.6 |
15.2 |
14.5 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
61.1 |
60.1 |
64.9 |
62.5 |
65.2 |
60.1 |
57.3 |
High-Skill |
24.4 |
26.6 |
15.3 |
23.3 |
21.2 |
24.7 |
28.2 |
Manufacturing |
Low-Skill |
14.0 |
12.8 |
18.7 |
12.3 |
16.9 |
13.6 |
11.7 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
49.9 |
47.0 |
61.9 |
46.4 |
52.3 |
53.0 |
45.2 |
High-Skill |
36.1 |
40.3 |
19.5 |
41.3 |
30.9 |
33.3 |
43.2 |
Transportation |
Low-Skill |
33.1 |
31.9 |
39.3 |
32.7 |
36.1 |
31.9 |
32.0 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
39.8 |
38.9 |
44.9 |
36.8 |
38.5 |
42.1 |
40.6 |
High-Skill |
27.1 |
29.2 |
15.8 |
30.5 |
25.3 |
26.0 |
27.4 |
Wholesale Trade |
Low-Skill |
17.4 |
16.4 |
23.4 |
18.3 |
19.9 |
15.3 |
16.8 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
64.0 |
63.9 |
64.0 |
60.4 |
63.2 |
67.2 |
62.8 |
High-Skill |
18.7 |
19.7 |
12.7 |
21.3 |
16.9 |
17.5 |
20.4 |
Retail Trade |
Low-Skill |
34.5 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
34.3 |
35.5 |
33.6 |
34.7 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
54.0 |
53.5 |
56.6 |
54.9 |
51.2 |
55.4 |
54.1 |
High-Skill |
11.6 |
12.1 |
8.7 |
10.8 |
13.3 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
Finance |
Low-Skill |
12.3 |
12.0 |
15.5 |
11.4 |
13.4 |
12.7 |
11.5 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
27.5 |
27.1 |
30.9 |
24.3 |
29.6 |
26.8 |
30.4 |
High-Skill |
60.3 |
60.9 |
53.6 |
64.3 |
56.9 |
60.5 |
58.1 |
Services |
Low-Skill |
12.7 |
12.5 |
13.8 |
12.0 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
14.4 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
31.9 |
31.7 |
33.2 |
30.9 |
32.4 |
34.3 |
29.3 |
High-Skill |
55.4 |
55.9 |
53.0 |
57.1 |
55.4 |
53.5 |
56.3 |
Public |
Low-Skill |
10.8 |
10.6 |
11.8 |
10.3 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
9.6 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
60.3 |
59.5 |
64.7 |
62.7 |
66.0 |
56.0 |
60.7 |
High-Skill |
28.8 |
29.9 |
23.5 |
27.0 |
22.4 |
32.5 |
29.8 |
Total |
Low-Skill |
17.6 |
17.0 |
21.0 |
16.4 |
18.8 |
17.4 |
17.9 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
43.3 |
42.0 |
50.1 |
40.8 |
44.8 |
45.1 |
41.4 |
High-Skill |
39.1 |
41.0 |
28.8 |
42.8 |
36.3 |
37.5 |
40.7 |
Source: Lewin calculations using the CPS March Supplement. |
Exhibit B.2
Percent Distribution of Payroll, 1996
By Industry, Skill Category, and Region
Industry |
Skill Level |
U.S. |
MSA |
Non-MSA |
Northeast |
Midwest |
South |
West |
---|
Agriculture |
Low-Skill |
42.7 |
47.2 |
36.7 |
37.4 |
45.0 |
38.0 |
47.6 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
34.1 |
25.4 |
45.6 |
22.3 |
34.5 |
42.2 |
28.9 |
High-Skill |
23.2 |
27.4 |
17.7 |
40.2 |
20.5 |
19.8 |
23.5 |
Mining |
Low-Skill |
10.1 |
8.1 |
12.4 |
1.9 |
12.3 |
12.4 |
6.1 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
55.8 |
44.7 |
68.7 |
67.6 |
60.4 |
57.3 |
47.5 |
High-Skill |
34.1 |
47.2 |
18.9 |
30.5 |
27.2 |
30.3 |
46.5 |
Construction |
Low-Skill |
11.7 |
11.3 |
13.9 |
13.3 |
11.0 |
12.6 |
9.7 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
59.5 |
57.7 |
69.5 |
60.7 |
63.8 |
58.0 |
56.6 |
High-Skill |
28.8 |
31.0 |
16.6 |
26.0 |
25.1 |
29.4 |
33.7 |
Manufacturing |
Low-Skill |
13.3 |
12.2 |
18.6 |
10.6 |
16.1 |
12.6 |
12.7 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
47.5 |
44.1 |
63.5 |
42.6 |
51.1 |
51.8 |
40.8 |
High-Skill |
39.2 |
43.8 |
17.9 |
46.8 |
32.8 |
35.6 |
46.6 |
Transportation |
Low-Skill |
33.5 |
32.3 |
40.7 |
30.8 |
40.2 |
31.6 |
32.2 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
37.3 |
36.8 |
40.5 |
38.9 |
34.3 |
38.0 |
37.7 |
High-Skill |
29.2 |
30.9 |
18.9 |
30.3 |
25.5 |
30.4 |
30.1 |
Wholesale Trade |
Low-Skill |
16.8 |
15.4 |
27.4 |
17.3 |
14.6 |
17.1 |
18.5 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
63.9 |
64.2 |
61.9 |
63.0 |
70.8 |
61.7 |
59.9 |
High-Skill |
19.2 |
20.4 |
10.7 |
19.7 |
14.5 |
21.2 |
21.6 |
Retail Trade |
Low-Skill |
33.1 |
32.6 |
36.5 |
33.2 |
32.0 |
33.8 |
33.3 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
55.8 |
56.0 |
54.4 |
56.1 |
56.2 |
54.1 |
57.6 |
High-Skill |
11.1 |
11.4 |
9.1 |
10.7 |
11.8 |
12.1 |
9.0 |
Finance |
Low-Skill |
10.6 |
10.2 |
14.4 |
8.4 |
11.2 |
12.6 |
10.3 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
24.8 |
24.3 |
30.0 |
19.7 |
22.7 |
25.8 |
33.8 |
High-Skill |
64.6 |
65.4 |
55.6 |
72.0 |
66.1 |
61.7 |
55.9 |
Services |
Low-Skill |
11.1 |
11.0 |
12.1 |
10.9 |
10.5 |
10.3 |
13.0 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
28.5 |
28.0 |
32.0 |
27.4 |
28.8 |
29.2 |
28.1 |
High-Skill |
60.5 |
61.1 |
55.9 |
61.6 |
60.7 |
60.5 |
58.9 |
Public |
Low-Skill |
10.3 |
9.6 |
14.0 |
9.0 |
11.7 |
9.7 |
11.0 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
59.0 |
59.2 |
57.7 |
63.8 |
59.1 |
58.1 |
56.7 |
High-Skill |
30.7 |
31.1 |
28.2 |
27.2 |
29.2 |
32.1 |
32.3 |
Total |
Low-Skill |
16.4 |
15.6 |
20.7 |
14.7 |
17.3 |
16.2 |
17.1 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
41.2 |
39.8 |
49.4 |
38.3 |
42.9 |
42.4 |
40.1 |
High-Skill |
42.5 |
44.6 |
29.9 |
47.0 |
39.9 |
41.3 |
42.8 |
Source: Lewin calculations using the CPS March Supplement. |
Exhibit B.3
Percent Distribution of Payroll, 1998
By Industry, Skill Category, and Region
Industry |
Skill Level |
U.S. |
MSA |
Non-MSA |
Northeast |
Midwest |
South |
West |
---|
Agriculture |
Low-Skill |
56.5 |
61.6 |
47.1 |
58.1 |
37.1 |
57.6 |
64.3 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
19.5 |
20.8 |
17.2 |
16.6 |
24.3 |
21.2 |
16.7 |
High-Skill |
24.0 |
17.7 |
35.7 |
25.3 |
38.7 |
21.2 |
19.0 |
Mining |
Low-Skill |
6.0 |
6.2 |
5.8 |
34.0 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
7.1 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
56.8 |
41.5 |
78.4 |
64.0 |
63.7 |
51.4 |
68.5 |
High-Skill |
37.2 |
52.3 |
15.8 |
2.0 |
32.2 |
44.1 |
24.4 |
Construction |
Low-Skill |
11.5 |
10.5 |
16.6 |
9.1 |
13.4 |
10.9 |
12.4 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
62.5 |
62.1 |
64.5 |
65.1 |
66.3 |
59.1 |
62.0 |
High-Skill |
26.0 |
27.4 |
18.8 |
25.8 |
20.4 |
29.9 |
25.6 |
Manufacturing |
Low-Skill |
12.7 |
11.7 |
16.6 |
10.7 |
14.8 |
13.3 |
10.3 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
48.7 |
45.9 |
60.6 |
44.8 |
50.1 |
53.3 |
43.5 |
High-Skill |
38.6 |
42.3 |
22.8 |
44.5 |
35.2 |
33.4 |
46.2 |
Transportation |
Low-Skill |
34.0 |
33.2 |
39.7 |
35.1 |
35.1 |
33.6 |
32.6 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
34.3 |
33.6 |
38.9 |
36.3 |
36.0 |
33.6 |
31.9 |
High-Skill |
31.7 |
33.2 |
21.4 |
28.7 |
28.9 |
32.8 |
35.5 |
Wholesale Trade |
Low-Skill |
15.8 |
15.4 |
19.2 |
14.2 |
17.3 |
13.8 |
18.3 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
62.0 |
60.7 |
73.1 |
60.4 |
65.9 |
63.3 |
57.5 |
High-Skill |
22.2 |
23.9 |
7.8 |
25.4 |
16.7 |
22.8 |
24.2 |
Retail Trade |
Low-Skill |
33.6 |
33.0 |
37.1 |
31.6 |
32.4 |
34.1 |
35.6 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
54.8 |
54.6 |
55.6 |
56.2 |
54.8 |
55.5 |
52.5 |
High-Skill |
11.6 |
12.4 |
7.3 |
12.2 |
12.8 |
10.4 |
12.0 |
Finance |
Low-Skill |
10.6 |
10.0 |
18.9 |
8.3 |
12.3 |
10.7 |
12.2 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
22.9 |
23.0 |
21.3 |
20.4 |
25.2 |
24.7 |
21.5 |
High-Skill |
66.4 |
66.9 |
59.8 |
71.3 |
62.5 |
64.6 |
66.3 |
Services |
Low-Skill |
11.2 |
11.0 |
12.9 |
10.9 |
10.0 |
10.9 |
13.0 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
27.9 |
27.3 |
32.5 |
29.7 |
26.6 |
27.5 |
28.1 |
High-Skill |
60.9 |
61.7 |
54.5 |
59.4 |
63.3 |
61.6 |
59.0 |
Public |
Low-Skill |
11.7 |
11.9 |
10.2 |
10.8 |
13.8 |
11.2 |
11.6 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
58.4 |
56.7 |
68.2 |
63.5 |
60.3 |
54.3 |
59.2 |
High-Skill |
29.9 |
31.3 |
21.7 |
25.7 |
25.9 |
34.5 |
29.2 |
Total |
Low-Skill |
16.4 |
15.9 |
20.1 |
14.9 |
16.5 |
16.6 |
17.6 |
---|
Medium-Skill |
40.3 |
38.9 |
48.9 |
39.1 |
41.7 |
41.0 |
38.7 |
High-Skill |
43.3 |
45.2 |
31.0 |
46.0 |
41.8 |
42.3 |
43.7 |
Source: Lewin calculations using the CPS March Supplement. |