How Well Have Rural and Small Metropolitan Labor Markets Absorbed Welfare Recipients?. Chapter 5: Findings


In this chapter, we first provide a descriptive account of changes in low-skill employment, low-skill wages, and welfare caseloads between 1993 and 1998 in our 12 regions. We then decompose the changes into supply-induced or demand-induced changes generated by the economic model. We further decompose the supply-induced changes into several factors including welfare reform, reduction of excess supply of labor, and population growth. In addition, we provide an upper bound estimate on the effect welfare reform could have had on employment, wages, and displacement in the low-skill labor market. Finally, we summarize the findings and discuss the implications for further research.