In addition to the more than 8 million people who have selected plans through the Marketplace during the initial open enrollment period (including SEP activity through 4-19-14), CBO recently estimated that an additional 5 million people have purchased coverage outside of the Marketplace in Affordable Care Act-compliant plans.13 Meanwhile, the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association estimates that its plans have enrolled 1.7 million in Affordable Care Act-compliant, off-Marketplace plans.14 Additionally, E-Health reports that 45 percent of its off-Marketplace enrollees from January through early March of 2014 were ages 18 to 34.15
Moreover, recent national surveys indicate that the number of Americans with health insurance coverage is growing, and the number of 18 to 64 year olds who are uninsured is declining. For example, Gallup has found a 3 percentage point decrease in the uninsured rate for adults (18 to 64) from the third quarter of 2014 to March 2014 (18 percent versus 15 percent, respectively, corresponding to a 7.26 million decline in the number of uninsured adults).16 Similarly, the Urban Institute estimates a 2.7 percentage point decrease in the uninsured rate for adults (18 to 64) from October 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014 (corresponding to a 5.4 million decline in the number of uninsured adults).17 Meanwhile, the RAND Corporation estimates a 4.7 percentage point decrease in the uninsured rate (corresponding to a net decrease of 9.3 million uninsured adults, ages of 18 to 64) from the last week of September 2013 through March 2014.18
13 Congressional Budget Office (CBO), “Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014,” April 2014, accessed at http://cbo.gov/system/files/cbofiles/attachments/45231-ACA_Estima....
14 Sophie Novack, “The Missing Millions in the Obamacare Enrollment Total,” National Journal, April 3, 2014, accessed at http://www.nationaljournal.com/health-care/the-missing-millions-in-the-o....
16 Alyssa Brown, “Is the Affordable Care Act Working?,” Gallup Thrive blog post, April 16, 2014. Available at: http://thrive.gallup.com/2014/04/is-affordable-care-act-working.html.
17 Long SK, Kenney GM, Zuckerman S, et al. QuickTake: Number of Uninsured Adults Falls by 5.4 Million since 2013. Washington, DC: Urban Institute; 2014. Accessed at http://hrms.urban.org/quicktakes/changeInUninsurance.html.
18 Katherine Carman and Christine Eibner, “Changes in Health Insurance Enrollment Since 2013: Evidence from the RAND Health Reform Opinion Study,” RAND Corporation, April 2014. Available at: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR656.html.