Factors Predicting Transitions from Medicare-Only to Medicare-Medicaid Enrollee Status. Chronic Conditions


In addition to service utilization, chronic conditions were also associated with the rate of transition to MME status, as well as non-SNF nursing home entry. Younger beneficiaries with Alzheimer's, dementia, and related disorders have 1.8 times the odds of becoming an MME than those without, whereas older beneficiaries with dementia have nearly three times the odds of becoming an MME than those without (estimates are found in the Appendix, Table A1).11 Depression is also a significant factor (odds of 1.5-1.7, depending on the age group). The number of physical chronic conditions is also associated with higher odds of becoming an MME--on average, an 18 percent and 12 percent increase in the odds per condition, for younger and older beneficiaries, respectively.

Chronic conditions are also strong predictors of nursing home entry. Younger and older beneficiaries with dementia are about four times more likely to enter a nursing home than those without dementia (estimates are found in the Appendix, Table A2). The corresponding odds for depression are about 1.7-1.8. Each physical condition is associated with a 12-16 percent higher odds, depending on the age group.

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