Factors Predicting Transitions from Medicare-Only to Medicare-Medicaid Enrollee Status. Appendix a

01/01/2014

The following tables contain the set of coefficient estimates and odds ratios from the regression models. To get predicted rates for Table 2 and Table 3, we retained the estimated coefficients. Then for "No ER Visit Resulting in IP Stay, SNF Stay, or Other NH Stay", we computed the predicted transition rate by setting the indicator variables for "ER Visit Resulting in IP stay", "SNF stay", "Other Nursing Home Stay", and their interactions to 0. For "ER Visit Resulting in IP Stay Only", we set the indicator variable for "ER Visit Resulting in IP Stay" to 1, and kept all other indicator variables and interactions to 0, and computed the predicted transition rate. We followed a similar procedure for the remaining rates.

TABLE A1. Estimates from Model Predicting the Transition from Medicare-Only to Medicare-Medicaid Enrollment, by Age Group
Variable Age Under 65 Age 65 and Above
OR Coef OR Coef
Number of Planned Inpatient Stays   1.04***   0.03***   1.02**   0.02**
Number of Outpatient ER Visits 1.07*** 0.06*** 1.09*** 0.09***
Number of Weeks of Home Health Use 1.01*** 0.01*** 1.00*** 0.00***
ER Visit Resulting in Inpatient Stay 1.47*** 0.38*** 2.04*** 0.71***
SNF Stay 2.57*** 0.95*** 4.93*** 1.60***
Other Nursing Home Stay 3.52*** 1.26*** 9.60*** 2.26***
ER Visit Resulting in Inpatient Stay, and SNF Stay 0.92* -0.08* 0.69***   -0.37***  
ER Visit Resulting in Inpatient Stay, and Other Nursing Home Stay 0.68***   -0.39***   0.49*** -0.71***
SNF and Other Nursing Home Stay 0.62*** -0.48*** 0.25*** -1.39***
ER Visit Resulting in Inpatient Stay, SNF Stay, and Other Nursing Home Stay   1.15 0.14 1.70*** 0.53***
Alzheimer's, Related Disorder, or Dementia 1.76*** 0.57*** 3.05*** 1.12***
Depression 1.72*** 0.54*** 1.47*** 0.38***
Number of Other Physical Chronic Conditions 1.18*** 0.17*** 1.12*** 0.11***
Any Hospice 1.63*** 0.49*** 1.12*** 0.12***
Total 2008 DME Payments 1.00 0.00 1.00*** 0.00***
Total 2008 DME Payments Squared 1.00 0.00 1.00*** 0.00***
Total 2008 Part B Physician Payments 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Total 2008 Part B Physician Payments Squared 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Age 1.00 0.00 0.94*** -0.06***
Age Squared 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Female 1.04*** 0.04*** 1.26*** 0.23***
March 0.84*** -0.18*** 0.77*** -0.26***
April 0.72*** -0.33*** 0.69*** -0.37***
May 0.63*** -0.46*** 0.65*** -0.43***
June 0.60*** -0.51*** 0.62*** -0.49***
July 0.64*** -0.45*** 0.69*** -0.37***
August 0.56*** -0.58*** 0.63*** -0.46***
September 0.52*** -0.65*** 0.55*** -0.60***
October 0.74*** -0.30*** 0.91*** -0.10***
November 0.53*** -0.64*** 0.61*** -0.50***
December 0.49*** -0.72*** 0.65*** -0.43***
Alaska 1.38*** 0.32*** 1.63*** 0.49***
Alabama 0.53*** -0.63*** 0.74*** -0.30***
Arkansas 0.97 -0.03 1.21*** 0.19***
Arizona 1.21** 0.19** 0.99 -0.01
California 1.13* 0.12* 1.42*** 0.35***
Colorado 0.74*** -0.30*** 0.79*** -0.23***
Connecticut 1.47*** 0.38*** 1.59*** 0.46***
District of Columbia 3.66*** 1.30*** 2.39*** 0.87***
Delaware 0.77** -0.27** 0.74*** -0.30***
Florida 1.21** 0.19** 1.22*** 0.20***
Georgia 0.95 -0.05 1.23*** 0.21***
Hawaii 1.35*** 0.30*** 1.37*** 0.31***
Iowa 1.05 0.05 0.71*** -0.35***
Idaho 0.80** -0.22** 0.87** -0.14**
Illinois 1.17** 0.16** 1.05 0.05
Indiana 1.25** 0.22** 1.21*** 0.19***
Kansas 0.85** -0.17** 0.80*** -0.22***
Kentucky 0.80** -0.23** 1.17*** 0.16***
Louisiana 0.75*** -0.29*** 1.19*** 0.17***
Massachusetts 1.79*** 0.58*** 1.38*** 0.32***
Maryland 0.87* -0.14* 0.79*** -0.24***
Maine 1.39*** 0.33*** 2.40*** 0.88***
Michigan 1.14* 0.13* 1.10* 0.09*
Minnesota 1.33*** 0.28*** 0.77*** -0.26***
Missouri 1.37*** 0.31*** 0.95 -0.05
Mississippi 0.73*** -0.32*** 1.18*** 0.17***
Montana 0.93 -0.08 0.92 -0.08
North Carolina 0.72*** -0.33*** 1.12** 0.11**
North Dakota 1.17* 0.15* 0.97 -0.03
Nebraska 0.84* -0.17* 0.82*** -0.20***
New Hampshire 1.31*** 0.27*** 1.13** 0.12**
New Jersey 0.51*** -0.67*** 0.95 -0.06
New Mexico 1.00 0.00 1.17** 0.16**
Nevada 0.91 -0.10 0.96 -0.04
New York 0.91 -0.10 1.91*** 0.65***
Ohio 1.37*** 0.31*** 1.04 0.04
Oklahoma 0.89 -0.12 0.91* -0.10*
Oregon 0.93 -0.08 1.05 0.04
Pennsylvania 0.88* -0.13* 0.95 -0.06
Rhode Island 0.96 -0.05 1.14** 0.13**
South Carolina 0.74*** -0.31*** 0.86** -0.16**
South Dakota 0.83* -0.19* 0.93 -0.08
Tennessee 0.83** -0.19** 1.01 0.01
Texas 0.64*** -0.44*** 1.04 0.04
Utah 0.81** -0.21** 0.65*** -0.43***
Virginia 0.76*** -0.27*** 0.89** -0.12**
Vermont 1.61*** 0.48*** 1.54*** 0.43***
Washington 1.23** 0.21** 1.13** 0.12**
Wisconsin 1.22** 0.20** 1.18*** 0.17***
West Virginia 0.86* -0.15* 1.28*** 0.24***
Number of Observations 2,480,450 14,327,183
SOURCE: Mathematica analysis of 2008 and 2009 MBSF, CCW Timeline, and Medicare Claims Files.
NOTE: Service utilization is measured within the prior 6 months, unless described otherwise. Statistics are weighted to be representative of the population. Wyoming is the omitted (reference) state.

*** Indicates statistical significance at the 0.1% level
** indicates statistical significance at the 1% level
* indicates statistical significance at the 5% level.

TABLE A2. Estimates from Model Predicting Nursing Home Entry, by Age Group
Variable Age Under 65 Age 65 and Above
OR Coef OR Coef
Number of Planned Inpatient Stays 1.33*** 0.28*** 1.23*** 0.21***
Number of Outpatient ER Visits 1.05*** 0.05*** 1.12*** 0.11***
Number of Weeks of Home Health Use 0.98***   -0.02***   0.96***   -0.04***  
ER Visit Resulting in Inpatient Stay 2.81*** 1.03*** 2.44*** 0.89***
SNF Stay   21.25***   3.06***   13.12***   2.57***
ER Visit Resulting in Inpatient Stay, and SNF Stay   0.58*** -0.54*** 0.69*** -0.37***
Alzheimer's, Related Disorder, or Dementia 4.12*** 1.42*** 4.14*** 1.42***
Depression 1.71*** 0.53*** 1.79*** 0.58***
Number of Other Physical Chronic Conditions 1.16*** 0.15*** 1.12*** 0.11***
Any Hospice 6.82*** 1.92*** 2.51*** 0.92***
Total 2008 DME Payments 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Total 2008 DME Payments Squared 1.00 0.00 1.00*** 0.00***
Total 2008 Part B Physician Payments 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Total 2008 Part B Physician Payments Squared 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Age 1.13*** 0.12*** 1.24*** 0.21***
Age Squared 1.00*** 0.00*** 1.00*** 0.00***
Female 1.13*** 0.12*** 0.98*** -0.02***
March 0.88** -0.13** 1.02* 0.02*
April 1.17*** 0.15*** 1.00 0.00
May 0.84*** -0.18*** 0.92*** -0.08***
June 0.81*** -0.21*** 0.97*** -0.04***
July 0.74*** -0.30*** 1.00 0.00
August 0.90** -0.11** 0.96*** -0.04***
September 0.67*** -0.40*** 0.93*** -0.07***
October 0.88** -0.13** 1.12*** 0.11***
November 0.76*** -0.28*** 0.93*** -0.08***
December 0.86** -0.15** 1.11*** 0.10***
Alaska 0.45 -0.81 0.37*** -0.98***
Alabama 0.95 -0.06 0.65*** -0.43***
Arkansas 1.88 0.63 1.02 0.02
Arizona 1.53 0.43 0.78*** -0.25***
California 3.21** 1.17** 0.74*** -0.30***
Colorado 3.90** 1.36** 1.04 0.04
Connecticut 6.16*** 1.82*** 1.02 0.02
District of Columbia 5.52*** 1.71*** 1.16* 0.15*
Delaware 0.71 -0.34 0.91 -0.09
Florida 1.80 0.59 0.70*** -0.36***
Georgia 1.98 0.68 0.78*** -0.25***
Hawaii 2.39* 0.87* 0.48*** -0.74***
Iowa 3.39** 1.22** 1.78*** 0.58***
Idaho 4.33** 1.47** 0.77*** -0.27***
Illinois 2.76** 1.02** 0.95 -0.05
Indiana 2.94** 1.08** 1.19*** 0.18***
Kansas 1.95 0.67 1.19*** 0.17***
Kentucky 1.43 0.36 0.93 -0.08
Louisiana 1.85 0.61 1.18** 0.16**
Massachusetts 5.80*** 1.76*** 0.99 -0.01
Maryland 3.25** 1.18** 0.83*** -0.19***
Maine 4.88*** 1.58*** 0.85** -0.16**
Michigan 1.91 0.65 0.68*** -0.39***
Minnesota 4.74*** 1.56*** 1.31*** 0.27***
Missouri 3.15** 1.15** 1.14** 0.13**
Mississippi 0.96 -0.04 0.48*** -0.75***
Montana 5.21*** 1.65*** 1.01 0.01
North Carolina 1.30 0.27 0.80*** -0.23***
North Dakota 5.58*** 1.72*** 1.07 0.07
Nebraska 3.32** 1.20** 1.62*** 0.48***
New Hampshire 5.61*** 1.72*** 1.02 0.02
New Jersey 3.32** 1.20** 0.93 -0.07
New Mexico 1.09 0.08 0.70*** -0.35***
Nevada 4.33** 1.47** 0.93 -0.07
New York 3.75** 1.32** 0.84*** -0.17***
Ohio 4.01** 1.39** 1.05 0.05
Oklahoma 1.62 0.48 1.29*** 0.26***
Oregon 3.16** 1.15** 0.76*** -0.27***
Pennsylvania 3.25** 1.18** 0.96 -0.05
Rhode Island 4.03** 1.39** 1.95*** 0.67***
South Carolina 1.48 0.39 0.59*** -0.53***
South Dakota 0.55 -0.61 1.59*** 0.46***
Tennessee 1.68 0.52 0.88** -0.13**
Texas 1.86 0.62 1.08 0.08
Utah 7.14*** 1.97*** 1.11* 0.10*
Virginia 3.06** 1.12** 0.82*** -0.20***
Vermont 4.11** 1.41** 1.03 0.03
Washington 3.70** 1.31** 0.88** -0.13**
Wisconsin 5.06*** 1.62*** 1.05 0.05
West Virginia 0.62 -0.48 0.61*** -0.49***
Number of Observations 2,466,398 13,992,952
SOURCE: Mathematica analysis of 2008 and 2009 MBSF, CCW Timeline, and Medicare Claims Files.
NOTE: Service utilization is measured within the prior 6 months, unless described otherwise. Statistics are weighted to be representative of the population. Wyoming is the omitted (reference) state.

*** Indicates statistical significance at the 0.1% level
** indicates statistical significance at the 1% level
* indicates statistical significance at the 5% level

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