Appendix Figure 1 displays the number of children who are federally-eligible for subsidies and the number of children receiving subsidies during the period 1999-2009.15 The number of children eligible under federal parameters in Appendix Figure 1 is calculated without excluding children that are unlikely to be eligible based on their citizenship status, and without including unmarried partners in the eligibility determination process. These exclusions were made to provide a series of consistent, although less precise, estimates to analyze changes in estimated eligibility over time. The trends shown in the graph should be interpreted with caution due to changes in estimation methods, measurement error, and demographic shifts affecting eligibility over time. Some of the methodological improvements described in this section have been applied retrospectively and the estimates may not match exactly the estimates shown in ASPE’s previous Issue Briefs.
For reference, Appendix Figure 2 shows the total number of children, regardless of child care eligibility, estimated to have been living in households with incomes below 100 percent and 150 percent of poverty thresholds from 1999 to 2009.
*Appendix Figure 1 was estimated without using an alternative methodology that excludes improvements made to the TRIM model for the 2006-2009 estimates. With the improvements, the estimate of the number of federally-eligible children in 2009 is 13.8 million (see Table 1 on page 1).
Source: ASPE tabulations from the Current Population Survey, ASEC