Determinants of AFDC Caseload Growth. APPENDIX A

07/01/1997

VARIABLE DEFINITIONS(1)

Dependent Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
BCASEL Natural log of average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload during given quarter. Monthly caseload data appear in the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993) and Public Assistance Statistics (1978-1980). Most data obtained electronically from ACF. Quarterly values constructed from monthly data (1/78-3/95) using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=aggregate options. 1978.4 - 1995.1
UCASEL Natural log of average monthly AFDC-UP caseload during given quarter. Monthly caseload data appear in the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993) and Public Assistance Statistics (1978-1980). Most data obtained electronically from ACF. Quarterly values constructed from monthly data (1/78-3/95) using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=aggregate options. 1978.4 - 1995.1
BRTOTL Natural log of average monthly AFDC-Basic total recipients during given quarter. Monthly recipient data (10/82-3/95) appear in the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993). Most data obtained electronically from ACF. Data prior to 10/82 were extracted from database assembled by Grossman (1985) and provided by Gilbert Crouse, ASPE. Quarterly values constructed from monthly data (1/78-3/95) using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=aggregate options. 1978.1 - 1995.1
URTOTL Natural log of average monthly AFDC-UP total recipients during given quarter. Monthly recipient data (10/82-3/95) appear in the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993). Most data obtained electronically from ACF. Data prior to 10/82 were extracted from database assembled by Grossman (1985) and provided by Gilbert Crouse, ASPE. Quarterly values constructed from monthly data (1/78-3/95) using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=aggregate options. 1978.1 - 1995.1
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
BRKIDL Natural log of average monthly AFDC-Basic child recipients during given quarter. Monthly recipient data appear in the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993) and Public Assistance Statistics (1978-1980). Most data obtained electronically from ACF. Quarterly values constructed from monthly data (1/78-3/95) using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=aggregate options. 1978.1 - 1995.1
URKIDL Natural log of average monthly AFDC-UP child recipients during given quarter. Monthly recipient data appear in the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993) and Public Assistance Statistics (1978-1980). Most data obtained electronically from ACF. Quarterly values constructed from monthly data (1/78-3/95) using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=aggregate options. 1978.1 - 1995.1
AMB Natural log of average monthly AFDC payment per family during given quarter (1990 dollars). Average monthly benefit data obtained from the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993) and Public Assistance Statistics (1978-1980). When reported, quarterly values were imported directly into the database. When only monthly values were available, a quarterly average was constructed from the monthly values. Series deflated using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1980.1-1993.4
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
Population Characteristics
EXPTBA Natural log of expected average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload during given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Estimates from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for AFDC participation rates for single-parent households with children under the age of 18 by age of householder. Age-specific participation rates are measured in five year age groups.

2) National average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload data for 1990.

3) National population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1990.

4) Annual state population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1978-1994.

Equal to the number of single-parent AFDC units in the age group as tabulated from the 1990 SIPP divided by the total number of women in the age group. A*st = a Aa90 Past, where A*st is "expected" AFDC-Basic caseload in state s and year t, Aa90 is 1990 national AFDC-Basic participation rate in age group a, and Past is the number of women in age group a, living in state s during year t. Initial age-specific participation rates were adjusted by the ratio of the actual caseload for 1990 (ACF statistics) to the estimated caseload. The annual average monthly participation series was expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4
EXPTUP Natural log of expected average monthly AFDC-UP caseload during given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Estimates from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for AFDC participation rates for two-parent households with children under the age of 18 by age of householder. Age-specific participation rates are measured in five year age groups.

2) National average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload data for 1990.

3) National population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1990.

4) Annual state population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1978-1994.

Equal to the number of two-parent AFDC units in the age group as tabulated from the 1990 SIPP divided by the total number of men in the age group. A*st = a Aa90 Past, where A*st is "expected" AFDC-UP caseload in state s and year t, Aa90 is 1990 national AFDC-UP participation rate in age group a, and Past is the number of men in age group a ,living in state s during year t. Initial age-specific participation rates were adjusted by the ratio of the actual caseload for 1990 (ACF statistics) to the estimated caseload. The annual average monthly participation series was expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4
Demographic Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
Population Characteristics
EBATOT Natural log of expected average monthly AFDC-Basic total recipients during given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Estimates from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for AFDC participation rates for individuals living in single-parent households by age of individual. Age-specific participation rates are measured in five year age groups.

2) National average monthly AFDC-Basic total recipient data for 1990.

3) National population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1990.

4) Annual state population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1978-1994.

Equal to the number of individuals living in single-parent AFDC units in the age group as tabulated from the 1990 SIPP divided by the total number of individuals in the age group. A*st = a Aa90 Past, where A*st is "expected" number of AFDC-Basic total recipients in state s and year t, Aa90 is 1990 national AFDC-Basic participation rate in age group a, and Past is the number of individuals in age group a, living in state s during year t. Initial age-specific participation rates were adjusted by the ratio of the actual number of total recipients for 1990 (ACF statistics) to the estimated number of total recipients. The annual average monthly participation series is expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4
EUPTOT Natural log of expected average monthly AFDC-UP total recipients during given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Estimates from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for AFDC participation rates for individuals living in two-parent households by age of individual. Age-specific participation rates are measured in five year age groups.

2) National average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload data for 1990.

3) National population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1990.

4) Annual state population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1978-1994.

Equal to the number of individuals living in two-parent AFDC units in the age group as tabulated from the 1990 SIPP divided by the total number of individuals in the age group. A*st = a Aa90 Past, where A*st is "expected" AFDC-UP total recipients in state s and year t, Aa90 is 1990 national AFDC-UP participation rate in age group a, and Past is the number of individuals in age group a, living in state s during year t. Initial age-specific participation rates were adjusted by the ratio of the actual number of recipients for 1990 (ACF statistics) to the estimated number of recipients. The annual average monthly participation series is expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Demographic Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
Population Characteristics
EBAKID Natural log of expected average monthly AFDC-Basic child recipients during given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Estimates from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for AFDC participation rates for children (under the age of 18) living in single-parent households by age of child. Age-specific participation rates are measured in five year age groups.

2) National average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload data for 1990.

3) National population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1990.

4) Annual state population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1978-1994.

Equal to the number of children living in single-parent AFDC units in the age group as tabulated from the 1990 SIPP divided by the total number of children in the age group. A*st = a Aa90 Past, where A*st is "expected" AFDC-Basic child recipients in state s and year t, Aa90 is 1990 national AFDC-Basic participation rate in age group a, and Past is the number of children in age group a, living in state s during year t. Initial age-specific participation rates were adjusted by the ratio of the actual number of child recipients for 1990 (ACF statistics) to the estimated number of child recipients. The annual average monthly participation series is expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4
EUPKID Natural log of expected average monthly AFDC-UP child recipients during given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Estimates from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for AFDC participation rates for children living in two-parent households by age of child. Age-specific participation rates are measured in five year age groups.

2) National average monthly AFDC-Basic caseload data for 1990.

3) National population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1990.

4) Annual state population estimates for females over age 15 by five year age groupings for 1978-1994.

Equal to the number of children living in two-parent AFDC units in the age group as tabulated from the 1990 SIPP divided by the total number of children in the age group. A*st = a Aa90 Past, where A*st is "expected" AFDC-UP child recipients in state s and year t, Aa90 is 1990 national AFDC-UP participation rate in age group a, and Past is the number of men in age group a, living in state s during year t. Initial age-specific participation rates were adjusted by the ratio of the actual number of child recipients for 1990 (ACF statistics) to the estimated number of child recipients. The annual average monthly participation series was expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Demographic Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
Population Characteristics
FPOPxxxx, MPOPxxxx, and TPOPxxxx Variables* Multiple state population measures by age and sex (female, male, and total), where FPOP is female population, MPOP is male population, TPOP is total population, and xxxx is the age range of the variable [e.g., FPOP2024 (females aged 20-24), MPOPLT5 (males aged 0-4), TPOPGE65 (total population 65 and over), TOTPOP (total population)]. Various Current Population Reports and Announcements from the Population Estimates and Population Distribution Branches, Bureau of the Census, 1977-1995. Data were downloaded from Bureau of Census web page. Annual state population data expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=middle and method=spline options. Age brackets for female, male, and total population data are: 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-19 years, 20-24 years, 25-29 years, 30-34 years, 35-39 years, 40-44 years, 45-49 years, 50-54 years, 55-59 years, 60-64 years, 65-69 years, 70-74 years, 75-79 years, 80-84 years, and over 85 years; 16-24 years, 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years, 55-64 years, and over 65 years. Age brackets for total population data also include: 45-64 years, 65-74 years, and over 75 years. 1976.1-1994.4
SQRTTP Square root of state population in given quarter. Various Current Population Reports and Announcements from the Population Estimates and Population Distribution Branches, Bureau of the Census, 1977-1995. Data were downloaded from Bureau of Census web page. Equal to square root of TOTPOP. 1976.1-1994.4
PP4564 State population 45 to 64 as a percent of state's population 18 and over. Various Current Population Reports and Announcements from the Population Estimates and Population Distribution Branches, Bureau of the Census, 1977-1995. Data were downloaded from Bureau of Census web page. Equal to TPOP4564 divided by TPOPGE18. 1978.1-1994.4
PP6574 State population 65 to 74 as a percent of state's population 18 and over. Various Current Population Reports and Announcements from the Population Estimates and Population Distribution Branches, Bureau of the Census, 1977-1995. Data were downloaded from Bureau of Census web page. Equal to TPOP6574 divided by TPOPGE18. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Demographic Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
Population Characteristics
PPGE75 State population 75 and over as a percent of state's population 18 and over. Various Current Population Reports and Announcements from the Population Estimates and Population Distribution Branches, Bureau of the Census, 1977-1995. Data were downloaded from Bureau of Census web page. Equal to TPOPGE75 divided by TPOPGE18. 1978.1-1994.4
IMMGTOTL Estimated total immigration by state in given quarter. Total number of legal immigrants in given fiscal year, 1989-1994, obtained from the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Contact: Carolyn Johnson, (202) 376-6066 Fiscal year data expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with from=year.10, observed=total, method=join, and transformout=(floor>=0) options. 1978.1-1994.3
IMMGIRCA Estimated total number of illegal aliens legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 by state in given quarter. Illegal aliens per capita legalized under IRCA-1986 in given fiscal year, 1989-1994, obtained from the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Contact: Carolyn Johnson, (202) 376-6066 Fiscal year data expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with from=year.10, observed=total, method=join, and transformout=(floor>=0) options. Expanded series then divided by expanded total state population. 1989.1-1994.3
Vital Statistics
MARRIAGE Natural log of marriages by state in given quarter. Annual number of marriages by state, 1978-1994, obtained from various Vital and Health Statistics publications, NCHS. Annual values were interpolated for some years in some states when data were unavailable. Annual data are expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=total and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4
DIVORCE Natural log of divorces by state in given quarter. Annual number of divorces by state, 1978-1994, obtained from various Vital and Health Statistics publications, NCHS. Annual values were interpolated for some years in some states when data were unavailable. Annual data are expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=total and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4
OOWBIRTH Natural log of out-of-wedlock births by state in given quarter. Annual number of out-of-wedlock by state, 1978-1994, obtained from various Vital and Health Statistics publications, NCHS. Annual data are expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=total and method=spline options. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Labor Market Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
UNEMPRT Natural log of the quotient of the actual unemployment rate for given quarter divided by the expected unemployment rate for the quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly unemployment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2) National unemployment rate data by age by sex for 1990 obtained from Bureau of Labor Statistics.

3) Annual state population data by age and sex obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

All data were downloaded from Internet.

A state's expected unemployment rate in a given year is equal to the sum of the age and sex specific national unemployment rates for 1990 weighted by the ratio of the state's population in the age-sex group to the state's total working age population (16 years and older). Annual expected rates are expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=spline options. 1976.1-1994.4
UNEMPTOT Natural log of total unemployment in given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly unemployment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2) Quarterly employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Total unemployment data were not readily availble from the Bureau of Labor Statistics prior to 1976.1. Therefore, we calculated total unemployment from total employment and unemployment rate data that were readily available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1976.1-1994.4
TUNEMPPC Natural log of unemployment per capita ages 16-64 in given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly unemployment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2) Quarterly employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

3) Annual state population data by age and sex obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

Equal to natural logarithim of the ratio of unemployment per 1000 people ages 16-64. 1976.1-1994.4
TOTEMP Natural log of total employment in given quarter. Quarterly employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. No adjustments made before taking log of raw data. 1976.1-1994.4

 

Labor Market Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
TOTEMPPC Natural log of employment per capita ages 16-64 in given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2) Annual state population data by age and sex obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

Equal to natural logarithim of the ratio of total employment per 1000 people ages 16-64. 1976.1-1994.4
TRADE Natural log of trade employment in given quarter. Quarterly trade employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. No adjustments made before taking log of raw data. 1976.1-1994.4
TRADEPC Natural log of trade employment per capita ages 16-64 in given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly trade employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2) Annual state population data by age and sex obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

Equal to natural logarithim of the ratio of trade employment per 1000 people ages 16-64. 1976.1-1994.4
MANUFACT Natural log of manufacturing employment in given quarter. Quarterly manufacturing employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. No adjustments made before taking log of raw data. 1976.1-1994.4
MANFCTPC Natural log of manufacturing employment per capita ages 16-64 in given quarter. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly manufacturing employment rate data by state, 1976.1-1995.4, obtained from Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2) Annual state population data by age and sex obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

Equal to natural logarithim of the ratio of manufacturing employment per 1000 people ages 16-64. 1976.1-1994.4

 

Labor Market Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
RTLWAGE Natural log of the real average weekly retail wage in given quarter (1990 dollars). ES-202 annual state data series, 1978-1994, obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Contact: Mike Buso, (202) 606-6567. Annual data are expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND observed=average and method=spline options. Nominal dollar values deflated by regional CPI-Us (1990=100). 1978.1-1994.4
MANWAGE Natural log of the real average weekly manufacturing wage (1990 dollars). ES-202 annual state data series, 1978-1994, obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Contact: Mike Buso, (202) 606-6567. Annual data are expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND observed=average and method=spline options. Nominal dollar values deflated by regional CPI-Us (1990=100). 1978.1-1994.4
CPI90 CPI-Us for four Census regions, 1990=100. Data were downloaded from the Bureau of Labor Statistics web site. Base changed from 1982-1984=100 to 1990=100. 1978.1-1995.4
FEM_EMPM Natural log of the ratio of women between the ages of 15 and 44 to employed men in the state. Data used in creation of variable:

1) Annual state level employment data by sex., 1978-1994, obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Contact: Roberto Morales (202) 606-6392.

2) Annual state population data by age and sex obtained from the Bureau of the Census.

Unadjusted male employment data were adjusted by adjusted total employment data to obtain a consistent series as advised by Roberto Morales, BLS. Annual data for women between the ages of 15 and 44 and employed men expanded to quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND observed=average and method=spline options before taking ratio. 1978.1-1994.4

 

AFDC Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
AFDC and Food Stamp Program Benefit Variables
MMB Natural log of maximum monthly benefit including the value of Food Stamps payable to a three-person AFDC family during given quarter (1990 dollars). Data used in creation of variable:

1) Typical maximum monthly AFDC benefit data compiled annually prior to 1982.3 and quarterly thereafter by the Administration for Children and Families (ACF).

2) Annual fiscal year Food Stamp maximum benefit and standard deduction data obtained from Food Stamp Program Information Division, Programs Reports and Analysis Branch.

Equal to the nominal maximum monthly AFDC benefit for a three person family plus the nominal value of Food Stamps awarded when net income equals the maximum monthly AFDC benefit. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1 - 1994.4
MAXPAY* Natural log of typical maximum monthly AFDC benefit payable to a three-person family during given quarter (1990 dollars).(2) Data are annual from 1979-1983 and quarterly thereafter. Data were obtained from the Administration for Children and Families (ACF). Contact: Evelyn Mills, (202) 401-4055. Semi-annual maximum monthly AFDC benefit data compiled from 1979 to 1994 also obtained from the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Quarterly values were interpolated from annual data from 1979-1983 based on analysis of trends in typical maximum payments after 1983. ). The ACF data were checked against the CRS maximum monthly data. When a discrepancy appeared between the two series, an effort was made to explain the discrepancy and include the appropriate data. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1994.4
NEED3* Natural log of AFDC need standard for a three-person family during given quarter (1990 dollars). Data are annual from 1979-1983 and quarterly thereafter. Data were obtained from the Administration for Children and Families (ACF). Contact: Evelyn Mills, (202) 401-4055. Semi-annual AFDC need standard data compiled from 1979 to 1994 also obtained from the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Quarterly values were interpolated from annual data from 1979-1983 based on analysis of trends in typical maximum payments after 1983. ). The ACF data were checked against the CRS maximum monthly data. When a discrepancy appeared between the two series, an effort was made to explain the discrepancy and include the appropriate data. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1994.4

 

AFDC Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
PAYSTAND* Natural log of AFDC payment standard for a three-person family during a given quarter (1990 dollars). Data are annual (July) from 1979-1984 and semi-annual (January and July) from 1985-1994. Data were compiled by the Congressional Research Service and obtained either from various editions of Green Book and CRS reports. Contact: Carmen Solomon-Fears, (202) 707-7306. Quarterly values were interpolated from annual and semi-annual data based on trends and changes in AFDC Typical Maximum Payment and Need Standard data. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1994.4
EARNCUT* Natural log of monthly earnings at which AFDC benefit amount falls to zero (1990 dollars). Data used in creation of variable:

1) Quarterly AFDC payment standard data interpolated from annual and semi-annual data obtained from various editions of Green Book and CRS reports.

2) Formulas used by states to calculate AFDC benefits obtained from the Congressional Research Service.

3) Data on the Earned Income Tax Credit program.

Calculated from the benefit formulas by setting benefits to zero and solving for countable income. Prior to 1981.4 and after 1984.3, EARNCUT is equal to countable income. In accordance with OBRA-81, however, EARNCUT from 1981.4 to 1984.3 is equal to countable income less the earned income tax credit at the calculated level of countable income. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1994.4
CUTGIL Continuous variable estimating effect of gross income limit at which family becomes ineligible for AFDC. Data used in creation of variable:

1) EARNCUT, see derivation above.

2) AFDC need standard data were obtained from the Administration for Children and Families (ACF).

CUTGIL is equal to the ratio of a state's AFDC earnings cutoff to the federal gross income limit. Prior to 1981.4, CUTGIL is equal to zero in all states because the gross income limit was, implicitly, infinity. 1979.1-1994.4
FOODADJ3* Food Stamp benefit for a three-person family receiving the typical maximum AFDC benefit (1990 dollars). Data used in creation of variable:

1) Maximum Food Stamp benefit data for a three-person family obtained from the USDA.

2) Food Stamp program standard deduction data obtained from the USDA.

3) Typical maximum AFDC payment for a three-person family obtained from the ACF.

Equal to the maximum Food Stamp benefit for a three-person family less 30 percent of the difference of the typical maximum AFDC payment for a three-person family and the Food Stamp program standard deduction. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1995.3
FOODSTP3* Maximum Food Stamp benefit for a three-person family (1990 dollars). Fiscal year data obtained from Program Reports and Analysis Branch, Program Information Division, Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services, USDA. Contact: Arthur Foley, (703) 305-2490. Value of benefit constant within quarter. Maximum benefits in both Alaska and Hawaii differ from the single maximum benefit designated for all 48 contiguous states. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1995.3

 

AFDC Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
FSDEDUCT* Standard deduction taken from gross income used to determine the value of Food Stamp benefits (1990 dollars). Fiscal year data obtained from Program Reports and Analysis Branch, Program Information Division, Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services, USDA. Contact: Arthur Foley, (703) 305-2490. Value of deduction constant within quarter. Standard deductions in both Alaska and Hawaii differ from the single standard deduction designated for all 48 contiguous states. Deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1979.1-1995.3
ATBRR Average tax and benefit reduction rate between zero earnings and AFDC earnings cut-off. Data used in creation of variable:

1) AFDC earnings cut-off (see above for derivation methodology).

2) Total disposable income at both AFDC earnings cut-off and zero earnings.

3) Maximum monthly benefit payable to a three-person AFDC family during given quarter, including the value of Food Stamps.

4) Data on EITC and FICA obtained from various editions of Green Book and Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement.

5) Formula provided by Gilbert Crouse, ASPE.

ATBRR = 1 - (Y1 -Y0)/E1 , where ATBRR is the average tax and benefit reduction rate, Y1 is disposable income at the earnings cut-off, Y0 is disposable income at zero earnings, and E1 is the level of earnings at which AFDC benefits fall to zero. Disposable income equals: earnings + AFDC benefits + Food Stamp benefits + EITC - FICA. 1979.1-1994 .4
MTBRR Marginal tax and benefit reduction rate at AFDC earnings cut-off. Data used in creation of variable:

1) AFDC earnings cut-off (see above for derivation methodology).

2) Total disposable income at both AFDC earnings cut-off and $20 below AFDC earnings cut-off.

4) Data on EITC and FICA obtained from the various editions of Green Book and Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement.

5) Formula provided by Gilbert Crouse, ASPE.

MTBRR = 1 - (Y1 -Y0)/(E1 - E0), where MTBRR is the marginal tax and benefit reduction rate $20 below the AFDC earnings cut-off, Y1 is disposable income at the earnings cut-off, Y0 is disposable income at $20 below the AFDC earnings cut-off, E1 is the level of earnings at which AFDC benefits fall to zero, and E0 is the level of earnings $20 below the AFDC earnings cut-off. Disposable income equals: earnings + AFDC benefits + Food Stamp benefits + EITC - FICA. 1979.1-1994 .4

 

AFDC Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
AFDC Unemployed Parent Time-Limited Eligibility Variables
UP12M Dummy variable for effects of AFDC-UP programs with no time- limited eligibility. Data used in creation of variable:

1) AFDC-UP program initiation and termination dates obtained from ACF. Contact: Evelyn Mills, (202) 401-4055.

2) AFDC-UP program time eligibility policy data obtained from Characteristics of State Plans for Aid to Families with Dependent Children, 1990-1991 Edition.

Equal to one in those quarters during which a state administers an AFDC-UP program with no time-limited eligibility. Otherwise, equal to zero.(3) 1978.1-1994.4
UP6M Dummy variable for effects of AFDC-UP programs with time- limited eligibility. Data used in creation of variable:

1) AFDC-UP program initiation and termination dates obtained from ACF. Contact: Evelyn Mills, (202) 401-4055.

2) AFDC-UP program time eligibility policy data obtained from Characteristics of State Plans for Aid to Families with Dependent Children, 1990-1991 Edition.

Equal to one in those quarters during which a state administers an AFDC-UP program limiting eligibility to six months out of every twelve months. Otherwise, equal to zero.3,(4) 1978.1-1994.4
AFDC Federal Requirement Variables*
OBRA81 Dummy variable for effects of AFDC provisions in OBRA-1981. Information on OBRA-1981 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1981.4 and equal to one for all states in 1981.4 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4
DEFRA84 Dummy variable for effects of AFDC provisions in DEFRA-1984. Information on DEFRA-1984 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1984.4 and equal to one for all states in 1984.4 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4
OBRA87 Dummy variable for effects of AFDC provisions in OBRA-1987. Information on OBRA-1987 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1988.2 and equal to one for all states in 1988.2 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4
MEDCCXPN Dummy variable for effects of Medicaid and Child Care expansion provisions in FSA-1988. Information on FSA-1988 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1990.2 and equal to one for all states in 1990.2 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4

 

AFDC Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
AFDC Federal Requirement Variables
JOBS Dummy variable for effects of implementation of state JOBS programs. State JOBS program implementation dates obtained from 1991 Green Book. Equal to one in quarter during which a state implemented its JOBS program and all subsequent quarters. Equal to zero in all quarters prior to the quarter of implementation. 1978.1-1994.4
FSAUP1 Dummy variable for the effects of federal mandate under FSA-1988 requiring states to implement AFDC-UP programs under. Information obtained from ACF publication, Characteristics of State Plans for Aid to Families with Dependent Children, 1990-1991 Edition. Equal to one from 1990.4 to 1994.4 for those states with no AFDC-UP program prior to the passage of FSA-1988 and required by FSA-1988 to establish an AFDC-UP program. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
FSAUP2 Dummy variable for the effects of the FSA-1988 provision mandating state AFDC-UP programs to require that at least one parent in a family participate in a work or educational program. Information on FSA-1988 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1993.4 and equal to one for all states in 1993.4 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4
OBRA90 Dummy variable for the exclusion of any children receiving foster care maintenance or adoption assistance payments from the AFDC assistance unit as mandated under OBRA-1990. Information on OBRA-1990 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1991.1 and equal to one for all states in 1991.1 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4
OBRA93 Dummy variable for AFDC provisions in OBRA-1993. Information on OBRA-1993 obtained from Green Book and Overview of the AFDC Program, Fiscal Year 1994, published by ACF. Equal to zero for all states prior to 1994.2 and equal to one for all states in 1994.2 and subsequent quarters. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Variable Description Data Construction Dates
AFDC Federal Waiver Variables
NOKIDS Dummy variable for effects of waiver provisions that reduce or eliminate AFDC benefits for children born or conceived while the family is receiving AFDC. Data on AFDC federal waivers obtained from the Administration for Children and Families. Equal to one for New Jersey from 1992.4 forward; for Georgia from 1994.1 forward; and, for Wisconsin from 1994.3 forward. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
WORKREQ Dummy variable for effects of waiver provisions requiring AFDC recipients to engage in work, education or training activities outside of those under the state's JOBS program. Data on AFDC federal waivers obtained from the Administration for Children and Families. Equal to one for Utah from 1993.1 forward; for Oregon from 1993.1 forward; for Hawaii from 1994.1 forward; for Michigan from 1994.4 forward; and, for Connecticut from 1994.4 forward. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
MEDEXPAN Dummy variable for effects of waiver provisions that extend transitional Medicaid benefits for an additional one to two years. Data on AFDC federal waivers obtained from the Administration for Children and Families. Equal to one for Virginia from 1993.4 forward; for Vermont from 1994.2 forward; and, for Connecticut from 1994.4 forward. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
AFDC Federal Waiver Variables
UP100 Dummy variable for effects of waiver provisions that eliminate the 100-hour work limitation rule for AFDC-UP eligibility. Data on AFDC federal waivers obtained from the Administration for Children and Families. Equal to one for California from 1992.3 forward and for Connecticut from 1994.4 forward. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
UP100WH Dummy variable for effects of waiver provisions that eliminate both the 100-hour work limitation rule and work history requirement for AFDC-UP eligibility. Data on AFDC federal waivers obtained from the Administration for Children and Families. Equal to one Michigan from 1992.4 forward; for Iowa from 1993.4 forward; for Illinois from 1993.4 forward; for Vermont from 1994.2 forward; and, for Wisconsin from 1994.2 forward. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Other Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
MEDGAIN Continuous variable estimating effect of federally mandated expansion of Medicaid benefits under OBRA-89 and OBRA-90 to low-income mothers and children who are not AFDC eligible. Existing annual variable through 1993 obtained from Aaron Yelowitz (1995). Variable equal to zero before implementation of OBRA-89 and OBRA-90. Afterwards, variable equal to the percentage of children under the age of 18 in each state and year that are eligible for the Medicaid expansion. Values in 1994 equal value of variable in 1993 for each state. Annual series expanded to quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average, method=join, and transformout=(ceil>=0) options. 1978.1-1994.4
MEDFAM3 Log of the average monthly value (1990 dollars) of Medicaid benefit to a family of three in given quarter. Annual state-level series obtained from Robert Moffitt (1978-1993) and supplemented with 1994 Medicaid 2082 data obtained from Health Care Financing Administration. Annual benefit value for a family of three equal to two times the average benefit value to an AFDC child plus the average benefit value to an AFDC adult in a given state. An average monthly benefit for a given year was then obtained by dividing the annual benefit value by 12. This annual series was then expanded to a quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=join. MEDFAM3 is deflated to real dollars using the regional CPI-U (1990=100). 1978.1-1994.4
GACHNG Continuos variable measuring the size of state general assistance caseload changes to major state level policy initiatives. State general assistance caseload data obtained from the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) including ACF publications, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics (1981-1993) and Public Assistance Statistics (1978-1980). GACHNG variable derived from GACUT variable previously constructed by The Lewin Group. GACHNG variable set to zero in the first quarter of the sample period. When a general assistance (GA) cut or increase occurs in a state, the size of cut per capita is the difference between the average monthly GA caseload in the three months following the quarter in which the cut occurred and in the three months preceding that quarter divided by the state's population. GACHNG variable set equal to the resulting number from the quarter of the change through the quarter in which the next change occurs. Additional changes are added to previous change(s). 1978.1-1994.4
SSIBEN Log of the maximum SSI payment, federal plus state supplement in given quarter (1990 dollars). Data on SSI federal and state supplement benefits obtained from various editions of the Social Security Administration publication, State Assistance Programs for SSI Recipients. Benefit rates became effective on July 1 from 1979 through 1983. From 1984 through 1995, benefit rates became effective January 1. 1978.1-1995.4

 

Other Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
SSIKIDS Log of average monthly number of SSI child recipients in given quarter. Data on SSI child recipients for December 1977-1994 obtained from various editions of the Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement. Average monthly number of child recipients for each month derived from December data using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with from=month12.12, to=month, observed=average, method=join, and transforumout=(floor>=0). Monthly series then expanded to quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=join options. 1978.1-1994.4
ZEBLEY Log of average monthly number of SSI child recipients in given quarter eligible for SSI as a result of Sullivan v. Zebley. Data on Zebley SSI child recipients for June and December (1991-1995) obtained from Charles Scott, Social Security Administration. Average monthly number of Zebley SSI child recipients for year derived from June and December data using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with from=month6.3, to=month, observed=average, method=join, and transforumout=(floor>=0). Annual series then expanded to quarterly series using SAS/ETS PROC EXPAND with observed=average and method=join options. 1978.1-1995.4
SSARD80 Change in SSDI initial allowance rate between 1977 and 1978 Parsons (1991) Variable equals the change in SSDI initial allowance rate in a given state between 1977 and 1978. The variable is interacted with the calendar year dummy for 1980 in the Basic model. 1978.1-1994.4
UINSUR Log of the quotient of the insured unemployment rate divided by the unemployment rate. Quarterly total and insured unemployment rate data by state from the Bureau of Labor Statistics via BLS web site. Variable calculated by dividing insured unemployment rate by total unemployment rate and taking log of the resulting quotient. 1978.1-1995.4
Child Support Enforcement Laws
DIMMWITH Dummy variable representing existence of immediate withholding statutes in given quarter. See Gaylin, Daniel S. and McLanahan, Sara S. (1995). Data provided by Daniel S. Gaylin. Specification assumes statute goes into effect on January 1 of given year. Equal to one if state has statute in effect in given quarter. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
DMANWITH Dummy variable representing existence of mandatory withholding statutes in given quarter. See Gaylin, Daniel S. and McLanahan, Sara S. (1995). Data provided by Daniel S. Gaylin. Specification assumes statute goes into effect on January 1 of given year. Equal to one if state has statute in effect in given quarter. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4

 

Other Program Variables
Variable Description Data Construction Dates
Child Support Enforcement Laws
DPATLARM Dummy variable representing existence of paternal long-arm statutes in given quarter. See Gaylin, Daniel S. and McLanahan, Sara S. (1995). Data provided by Daniel S. Gaylin. Specification assumes statute goes into effect on January 1 of given year. Equal to one if state has statute in effect in given quarter. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
DPRESUMP Dummy variable representing existence of presumptive guideline statutes in given quarter. See Gaylin, Daniel S. and McLanahan, Sara S. (1995). Data provided by Daniel S. Gaylin. Specification assumes statute goes into effect on January 1 of given year. Equal to one if state has statute in effect in given quarter. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
Abortion Restrictions
ABRTCAID Dummy variable representing the existence of laws limiting Medicaid funding for abortions. Merz, Jon F. , et al. A Review of Abortion Policy: Legality, Medicaid Funding, and Parental Involvement, 1967-1994. (Working Paper No.: DRU-1096-NICHD.) Rand, May 1995. Equal to one if state enforces law limiting Medicaid funding for abortions in given quarter. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4
ABRTMINR Dummy variable representing the existence of laws requiring parental consent and/or notification before a minor may obtain an abortion. Merz, Jon F. , et al. A Review of Abortion Policy: Legality, Medicaid Funding, and Parental Involvement, 1967-1994. (Working Paper No.: DRU-1096-NICHD.) Rand, May 1995. Equal to one if state enforces parental consent and/or notification limiting laws regulating minors access to abortion services in given quarter. Otherwise, equal to zero. 1978.1-1994.4

 

1. 0 Variables followed by "*" are transitional variables used to construct other variables and not used in the models.

2. 0 A given family's maximum AFDC benefit may differ from the state's "typical" benefit as calculated by the ACF due to factors such as: locality, housing arrangements, family composition, or special needs.

3. 0 For Colorado, which has administered an AFDC-UP program limiting eligibility to nine months out of every twelve month period since 1990.4, UP12M and UP6M are both set equal to 0.5.

4. 0 Time-limited eligibility is a program option available only to those states that initiated an AFDC-UP program after the passage of FSA-88.