Determinants of AFDC Caseload Growth. 2. Year and Seasonal Effects


As in the participation equations, the coefficients on the year dummies must be adjusted for seasonal effects to obtain estimates of growth not accounted for in each year by variables in the model. The adjustment factor in this case is positive, .036. Only one of the year coefficients is positive, even after the adjustment (.015 for 1985). In many years the negative coefficient is substantial, even after adjustment. The largest negative values are for 1980, 1981, and all years from 1986 to 1991. The largest adjusted value is -.041, for 1980, the next largest is -.028, for 1981 , and the next is -.02, for 1990.