The results of the iterative simulations are displayed in Table 3. The iteration results at baseline focus on the group market. At baseline, the iterations did not change the results of the individual market health plan choices. For the group market, the iterations lead to substantial migration out of the “turned down and “PPO high” choices with losses of 1.04 million and 0.77 million, respectively. The plan designs forecast to have the largest in-migrations are the HMO, PPO medium, and HRA. In the group market, the HDHP plan has little change (a very small out-migration) as the iterations progress. Although we do find evidence of migration patterns, it seems the market nearly reaches equilibrium in the first round, with few changes between round 1 and round 5.
|MMA Original Population||New MMA Population||New Iterated MMA Round 1 Population||New Iterated MMA Round 4 Population||New Iterated MMA Round 5 Population||Final Iteration Delta|
|Opt-out HSA (Individual fully funds)||365,150||47,509||38,340||38,924||38,923||-8,585|