Continuation of Research on Consumer Directed Health Plans: HSA Simulation Model Refinement . B. Iterative Simulation Results at Baseline

01/21/2007

The results of the iterative simulations are displayed in Table 3.  The iteration results at baseline focus on the group market. At baseline, the iterations did not change the results of the individual market health plan choices.  For the group market, the iterations lead to substantial migration out of the “turned down and “PPO high” choices with losses of 1.04 million and 0.77 million, respectively.  The plan designs forecast to have the largest in-migrations are the HMO, PPO medium, and HRA.  In the group market, the HDHP plan has little change (a very small out-migration) as the iterations progress.  Although we do find evidence of migration patterns, it seems the market nearly reaches equilibrium in the first round, with few changes between round 1 and round 5.

  MMA Original Population New MMA Population New Iterated MMA Round 1 Population New Iterated MMA Round 4 Population New Iterated MMA Round 5 Population Final Iteration Delta
Table 3: Baseline MMA HSA Take-up with Iterative Simulation Component
Group Market
HMO 23,330,531 19,036,514 19,723,379 19,667,619 19,667,935 631,422
HRA 1,838,559 2,250,267 2,818,922 2,745,355 2,745,496 495,229
Employer-sponsored HSA 334,938 67,812 77,539 77,467 77,465 9,654
Opt-out HSA (Individual fully funds) 365,150 47,509 38,340 38,924 38,923 -8,585
PPO High 5,951,085 8,528,436 7,751,504 7,761,759 7,761,708 -766,728
PPO Low 1,575,203 1,014,605 1,112,812 1,117,411 1,117,420 102,815
PPO Medium 35,001,278 40,289,118 40,916,004 40,877,312 40,877,293 588,174
Turned Down 13,322,842 13,515,131 12,319,857 12,471,458 12,471,072 -1,044,059

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