CHIPRA Mandated Evaluation of Express Lane Eligibility: First Year Findings. C. Methods


Our study includes both a descriptive analysis of the SEDS data and a multivariate (regression-based) analysis. The main descriptive analysis examines enrollment trends in Medicaid and CHIP drawing on the SEDS quarterly data from 2007 onward. Through this analysis, we compare Medicaid and CHIP enrollment trends between ELE and non-ELE states and identify any noticeable spikes in enrollment in ELE states following their implementation of the policy. The multivariate analysis extends the descriptive analysis, using regression modeling to control for the counterfactual—that is, what the trend in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment would have been in ELE states in absence of the policy. Drawing on this estimate, the multivariate analysis provides a causal estimate of the impact of ELE on Medicaid/CHIP enrollment, offering arguably the most robust evidence to date on how and whether ELE expands coverage to children who would otherwise be uninsured.52

52 However, given the nature of the data, we are unable to determine actual coverage status before enrollment in Medicaid/CHIP. For instance, some of the estimated enrollment gains through ELE could be attributable to children who were previously uninsured or had private health insurance.

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