CHIPRA Mandated Evaluation of Express Lane Eligibility: First Year Findings. 2. Multivariate Findings

12/01/2012

Findings from the main multivariate difference-in-difference models show statistically significant evidence of a positive effect of ELE on enrollment (Table IV.3). On average, the main model, which uses the designated sets of comparison states described earlier, indicates that ELE implementation increased combined Medicaid/CHIP enrollment by 4.2 percent (statistically significant at the 10 percent level) and Medicaid enrollment by 5.6 percent (statistically significant at the 5 percent level), holding all other observed policy and economic changes constant.


Figure IV.1. Average Medicaid Enrollment Among ELE States and Comparison States, 2007-2011

Figure IV.1. Average Medicaid Enrollment Among ELE States and Comparison States, 2007-2011


Figure IV.2. Average Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment Among ELE States and Comparison States, 2007-2011

Figure IV.2. Average Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment Among ELE States and Comparison States, 2007-2011

Source: CMS Statistical Enrollment Data System (SEDS) as of March 30, 2012, verified and provided by CMS.

Notes: (1) Total enrollment includes children who were ever enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP during the fiscal quarter. (2) ELE states are Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, and South Carolina. Maine and Montana are excluded from all samples.

CHIP = Children's Health Insurance Program; CMS = Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; ELE = Express Lane Eligibility.


Table IV.3. Results for Main Multivariate Regression Models, 2007-2011 Quarterly SEDS Data

  Dependent Variable (log transformed)
  Total Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment Medicaid Enrollment Only
R-squared 0.99 0.99
Sample size 660 820
Express Lane Eligibility 0.0420* (0.024) 0.0562** (0.026)
Unemployment Rate 0.0067 (0.006) 0.0055 (0.006)
Log (Child Population) 0.8550** (0.381) 1.209*** (0.414)
Separate CHIP 0.0120 (0.023) -0.0104 (0.017)
Simulated Eligibility Threshold for Children 0.0003 (0.001) 0.0005 (0.001)
Simulated Eligibility Threshold for Parents -0.0024 (0.002) -0.0037 (0.002)
Joint Application -0.0331 (0.027) -0.0279 (0.027)
Presumptive Eligibility-Medicaid 0.0589 (0.042) 0.0192 (0.026)
Admin. Verification of Income-Medicaid 0.0222 (0.050) 0.0635*** (0.023)
No In-Person Interviews-Medicaid 0.0390 (0.061) 0.0254 (0.042)
Continuous Eligibility-Medicaid 0.0443 (0.049) 0.0375 (0.028)
Presumptive Eligibility-CHIP -0.0153 (0.044) N/A
Admin. Verification of Income-CHIP -0.0108 (0.053) N/A
No In-Person Interviews-CHIP 0.0281 (0.052) N/A
No Asset Test-CHIP 0.0273 (0.061) N/A
Continuous Eligibility-CHIP 0.0120 (0.051) N/A
Constant 1.005 (5.295) -3.995 (5.776)

Source: CMS Statistical Enrollment Data System (SEDS) as of March 30, 2012, verified and provided by CMS

Notes:(1) Robust standard errors clustered at the state level are in parentheses. (2) *p<.1, **p<.05, ***p<.01. (3) All models include state and quarter fixed effects (coefficients not shown). (4) Total enrollment includes children who were ever enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP during the fiscal quarter. Medicaid enrollment only includes children who were ever enrolled in Title XIX (Medicaid) or Title XXI Medicaid expansion CHIP programs during the fiscal quarter.

CHIP = Children's Health Insurance Program; CMS = Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; SEDS = Statistical Enrollment Data System.

 

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