Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 5.3 Rapid POC Diagnostic Social EPV Results


We estimate the social EPV of a new MRSA rapid POC diagnostic at $22.1 billion. Comparison of the social ENPV value to private ENPV shows that the social EPV is substantially higher than the private ENPV by $21.9 billion.  When a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to gauge the sensitivity of our results to changes in model parameters and assumptions, we find that the social EPV could potentially range from $6.0 billion to $73.4 billion.  The primary drivers for the observed wide range of social EPV results include 1) expected MRSA transmission rate, 2) real annual social rate of discount, 3) clinical stage success probability, and 4) percentage of patients with MRSA infection that die.

The results of this analysis, however, are limited to rapid POC diagnostics developed for MRSA and likely reflect the lower costs of development through the 510(k) process and the greater demand for a MRSA rapid POC diagnostic.

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