Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 5.1.11 Market Uptake

04/15/2014

Given the competitive landscape for rapid POC diagnostics for MRSA, we assume that the U.S. market share of the new entrant will range from 15 to 30 percent at peak-year sales with an expected market share of 24 percent given that the product launch success probability is estimated at 60 percent (= 60% × 30% + [(1 – 60%) × 15%) (see Section 3.2.12).

According to projections, the rapid POC diagnostic market for infectious diseases is expected to grow an average of 16 percent per year (Ben-Haim, 2008).  Assuming that expected first year market share is 6 percent, Table 23 presents the annual market share estimates for the new rapid POC diagnostic used in the model.


Table 23: Estimates of Market Share over Time for a New Rapid POC Diagnostic for MRSA

Year Market Share
Lower Bound Upper Bound Expected
1 4% 8% 6%
2 5% 9% 7%
3 5% 11% 9%
4 6% 12% 10%
5 7% 14% 12%
6 8% 17% 13%
7 10% 19% 16%
8 11% 23% 18%
9 13% 26% 21%
10 15% 30% 24%

Note: The expected market share in years beyond 10 is capped at 24%.

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