Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 4.5 Social EPV Results


We estimated the social EPV for a new ABOM vaccine to be $2.281 billion. Comparison of the social EPV value to private ENPV shows that the social EPV is substantially higher than the private ENPV by $2.213 billion. When a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to gauge the sensitivity of our results to changes in model parameters and assumptions, we find that the social EPV could potentially range from $148.0 million to $7.742 billion.  The primary drivers for the observed wide range of social EPV results include 1) expected effectiveness of vaccine, 2) real annual social rate of discount, 3) pre-clinical R&D success probability, and 4) clinical phase success probabilities.

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