Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 4.4.1 Expected Effectiveness of Vaccine


The expected effectiveness of the vaccine is used to determine how many cases of ABOM might be avoided as a result of the new vaccine being available, a component of social benefit.  To estimate the effectiveness of a new ABOM vaccine, we used the midpoint of the range of 1 to 50 percent (25.5 percent) given by O’Brien, et al. (2009), which is specific to vaccines for otitis media.  We then multiply 25.5 percent by the number of children aged 0 to 5 expected to receive the vaccination over the product’s total life to estimate the number of ABOM cases which would be prevented by the vaccine.  This yields a range of approximately 700,000 cases prevented in the first year the vaccine is used to up to 2.7 million cases in subsequent years, taking into account the anticipated growth rate in this segment of the population as well as changes in the predicted vaccine adoption rate over this time period.  For reference, we estimate that the baseline case counts over this time period range from 6.7 million to 8.3 million.

Table 20: Social EPV Model Parameters and Assumptions for a New ABOM Vaccine

Parameter Point Estimate
Real Annual Social Rate of Discount 3%
Expected Effectiveness of Vaccine 25.5%
2000 Real Personal Income Per Capita in 2005 $ $28,888
2012 Real Personal Income Per Capita in 2005 $ $32,635
Real GDP Growth, 2000 – 2011 13.0%
Income Elasticity of VSL 50.0%
VSLY Inflator 1.065
VSL in 2000 $ for 0 - <5 yr olds $3,740,000
VSL in 2000 $ Adjusted for Income for 0 - <5-Yr Olds $3,982,554
VSL in 2012 $ Adjusted for Income for 0 - <5-Yr Olds $5,309,933
Life Expectancy for an Average 3-Year Old 75
VSLY in 2012 $ Adjusted for Income for 0 - <5-Yr Olds $178,775
Average Number of Lost QALYs for Patients with ABOM 0.0049266
WTP (VSLY*Lost QALYs) Per Patient $881



View full report


"rpt_antibacterials.pdf" (pdf, 1.43Mb)

Note: Documents in PDF format require the Adobe Acrobat Reader®. If you experience problems with PDF documents, please download the latest version of the Reader®