The framework we used to assess social benefits for a new ABOM vaccine is the same as that used for antibacterial drugs and described earlier in this report. We use the same values for the real annual social discount rate, VSL, and VSLY as in the antibacterial drugs model. Table 20 presents the point estimates for the social EPV model parameters and assumptions. The following sections discuss the basis for these estimates in further detail.
4.4.1 Expected Effectiveness of Vaccine
The expected effectiveness of the vaccine is used to determine how many cases of ABOM might be avoided as a result of the new vaccine being available, a component of social benefit. To estimate the effectiveness of a new ABOM vaccine, we used the midpoint of the range of 1 to 50 percent (25.5 percent) given by O’Brien, et al. (2009), which is specific to vaccines for otitis media. We then multiply 25.5 percent by the number of children aged 0 to 5 expected to receive the vaccination over the product’s total life to estimate the number of ABOM cases which would be prevented by the vaccine. This yields a range of approximately 700,000 cases prevented in the first year the vaccine is used to up to 2.7 million cases in subsequent years, taking into account the anticipated growth rate in this segment of the population as well as changes in the predicted vaccine adoption rate over this time period. For reference, we estimate that the baseline case counts over this time period range from 6.7 million to 8.3 million.
Table 20: Social EPV Model Parameters and Assumptions for a New ABOM Vaccine