We found that the private ENPV for a new ABOM vaccine is $515.1 million. This is positive, indicating that the expected returns from developing such a vaccine are greater than the development costs. It is also worth noting that the private ENPV for developing a new ABOM vaccine are much higher than the private ENPV for developing a new antibacterial drug for ABOM, which was shown in Section 3.3 to be -$3.0 million. Because the private ENPV estimated ($515.1 million) exceeds the threshold value of $100 million, we did not conduct a threshold analysis of different types of incentives for the ABOM vaccine. It should be noted that the private ENPV could have been lower than $100 million had we selected another indication to model, indicating the desirability of market incentives. Therefore, the results presented here are limited to vaccines for ABOM and should not be viewed as representative of all types of vaccines.
Similar to the antibacterial drug analysis, we assessed the sensitivity of our results to our model parameters and assumptions by conducting a Monte Carlo analysis in each the point estimates were replaced by distribution of values (the probability distributions used and the applicable functional parameters are discussed in those sections applicable to the model parameter above). This results in a large private ENPV range of -$63.7 million to $1.479 billion. The primary drivers for the observed wide range of results are attributable to the following model parameters in order of importance:
- Average expected price per dose,
- Real opportunity cost of capital,
- Pre-clinical R&D success probability,
- Clinical phase success probabilities, and
- Total time to market.
As described above with relation to antibacterial drugs, we did not model changes in reimbursement as a variable parameter.