As with drugs, private ENPV for vaccine development is dependent on the duration of each phase and the distribution of out-of-pocket costs throughout each phase. To estimate the lengths of these phases, we consulted DiMasi & Grabowski (2006), in which phase lengths of 52.0, 19.5, 29.3, and 32.9 months are reported for the pre-clinical phase, Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3, respectively. The regulatory review period is estimated by the authors to last 16 months (for a total time-to-market of 12.5 years). These phase lengths, applicable to biopharmaceutical compounds, translate to point estimates with the following bounds (in years):
- Pre-clinical: Lower bound of 3.5, upper bound of 5.2, point estimate of 4.3 years,
- Phase 1: Lower bound of 1.3, upper bound of 2.0, point estimate of 1.6 years,
- Phase 2: Lower bound of 2.0, upper bound of 2.9, point estimate of 2.4 years,
- Phase 3: Lower bound of 2.2, upper bound of 3.3, point estimate of 2.7 years, and
- Regulatory Review: Lower bound of 1.1, upper bound of 1.6, point estimate of 1.3 years.