Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 4.2 Vaccine Private ENPV Model Parameters and Assumptions


For the purposes of modeling the decision-making process and expected returns for a vaccine producer, we chose to model a theoretical new vaccine effective in preventing acute bacterial otitis media (ABOM).  ABOM was chosen because otitis media is an infectious disease for which efforts to develop a preventive vaccine are already underway; therefore, we were able to find published studies including data specific to this indication that could be used in our modeling.17  The obtained results should be interpreted in the context of this indication and cannot be extended to other areas.

Table 19 presents the point estimates for the private ENPV model parameters and assumptions for vaccines. The following sections discuss the basis for these estimates in further detail.

17 See, e.g., O'Brien, et al., 2009.

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