Figure 6 presents the estimated social EPVs by indication for a new antibacterial drug. Comparison of the social EPV values to private ENPV shows that the social EPV is significantly higher than private ENPV for all of the indications. Interestingly, HABP/VABP, the indication with the lowest private ENPV (-$4 million) has the highest estimated social EPV ($12.2 billion). CABP has the second highest social EPV ($9.4 billion) followed by CUTI ($6.1 billion). The indications yielding the lowest social EPVs are ABOM ($487 million) and ABSSSI ($584 million).
Similar to what was done for the private ENPV analysis, we assess the sensitivity of our social EPV results to model parameters and assumptions utilized by conducting a Monte Carlo analysis in which the point estimates reported in Table 15 were replaced by distribution of values (the probability distributions used and the applicable functional parameters are discussed in those sections applicable to the model parameter above). Table 18 and Figure 6 present the results of this sensitivity analysis. In the figure, as before, the error bars correspond to the 90 percent confidence bounds. As can be observed, there is wide variation in the estimated social EPV values across the different indications. The primary drivers for the observed wide range of social EPV results are attributable to the following model parameters in order of importance:
- Percentage change in disease duration for patients that do not respond to commonly used antibacterial drugs,
- Phase 1 clinical trial success probability,
- Pre-clinical R&D success probability, and
- Real annual social rate of discount.
Table 18: Social EPV Sensitivity Results (Figures are in $ Million)
Figure 6: Sensitivity of Estimated Social ENPVs by Indication for a New Antibacterial Drug (in $ Million) - Error Bars Represent 90% Confidence Bounds