Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 3.6.1 Real Annual Social Rate of Discount

04/15/2014

In accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidelines for economic analysis, we use a real social discount rate of 3 percent in the analysis.  The social discount rate is assumed to have a triangular probability distribution with a lower bound of 1 percent and an upper bound of 7 percent in the sensitivity analysis.


Table 15: Social EPV Model Parameters and Assumptions (Point Estimates)

Model Parameter/Assumption ABOM ABSSSI CABP CIAI CUTI HABP/VABP
Real Annual Social Rate of Discount

 

3%
% of Patients Not Responding to Existing Drugs 20%
% Increase in Duration in Patients Not Responding to Existing Drugs 50%
Loss in Quality of Life, Acute 0.11 0.36 0.15 0.5 0.27 0.17
Duration (days) 10 6 4 10 4 8.5
Loss in Quality of Life, Convalescence 0.04 0.36 0.1 0.15 N/A N/A
Duration (days) 20 18 5 12 N/A N/A
Lost QALYs per illness 0.0049 0.0239 0.0038 0.0023 0.0030 0.0040
Total Number of Cases per Year (unadjusted for population growth) 13,200,000 726,000 1,170,000 72,000 1,083,000 272,600
Mortality Parameters            
     Deaths 0 1,923 51,683 14,554 36,900 81,779
          Lost QALYs for Patients that Die 0 26,167 572,741 243,987 319,913 1,848,212
          VSL per Patient N/A $5,623,708 $5,301,924 $5,585,504 $4,953,688 $4,770,000
Morbidity Parameters            
     Number of Patients that Survive 13,200,000 724,397 1,118,000 57,489 1,045,986 190,818
          Lost QALYs for Patients that Survive 65,248 17,336 4,295 1,632 2,432 756
          WTP (VSLY*Lost QALYs) per patient $1,124 $8,749 $1,113 $12,717 $758 $1,149

N/A = Not applicable

QALY = Quality-adjusted-life-year

VSL = Value of a statistical life

VSLY = Value of a statistical life year

WTP = Willingness-to-pay

The figures in the table are rounded for presentation purposes.

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