Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 3.2.15 Market Uptake for a New Antibacterial Drug over Time

04/15/2014

Table 11 presents sales data on Cubicin (daptomycin,) an antibacterial drug launched in the U.S. in 2003.  Cubicin is indicated for the treatment of complicated skin and skin structure infections (cSSSI) and Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections, including cases caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).  As can be observed from the figure, it takes an antibacterial drug much longer to achieve peak year sales compared to other drugs.  According to Shlaes (2010), healthcare providers have little incentive to use the antibacterial drug unless it addresses an immediate antibacterial drug resistance problem.  Physicians will restrain their use of the new drug to avoid rapid emergence of resistance to the new agent thereby slowing down market uptake.

In the model, assuming no real change in antibacterial drug reimbursement, we use the rate of uptake reported in Table 11 as the typical rate for a novel antibacterial drug.  Assuming that the novel drug would be able to capture between 27 percent and 12 percent of the total market (see previous Section 3.2.14 for a discussion on the basis for these numbers) when it reaches its peak year sales.

Table 12 presents the market size estimates from launch year to peak year sales years which is reached approximately 10 years after product launch.


Table 11: Annual Total Net Revenues for CUBICIN from Launch (2003) to 2012

Year Total Net Revenues Year-to-Year % Change
2003 $3.7 0%
2004 $68.1 1741%
2005 $120.6 77%
2006 $194.7 61%
2007 $294.6 51%
2008 $433.6 47%
2009 $562.1 30%
2010 $636.4 13%
2011 $754.0 18%
2012 [a] $915.0 21%

Source: Cubist, 2013

[a] The figure is the midpoint of the reported range of $900 to $930 million.


Table 12: Expected Market Share Estimates over Time for a New Antibacterial Drug

Year Market Share Product Launch Success Probability [a] Expected Market Share [b]
Lower Bound< Upper Bound<
1 (Launch) 0.05% 0.11% 60% 0.07%
2 0.87% 1.91% 1.29%
3 1.57% 3.47% 2.33%
4 2.57% 5.68% 3.81%
5 3.92% 8.64% 5.81%
6 5.79% 12.77% 8.58%
7 7.52% 16.59% 11.15%
8 8.52% 18.80% 12.63%
9 10.10% 22.30% 14.98%
10 12.27% 27.08% 18.19%

[a] See Section 3.2.12 for further discussion on the basis for this parameter

[b] The expected market share is computed as: (Lower Bound % × [1 – 60%]) + (Upper Bound % × 60%)

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