The rate and extent of market penetration for pharmaceutical products depend on the maturity of the market as well as product characteristics (IMS Health, 2010). Significantly, innovative products that face no or little competition enjoy quicker sales growth compared to commoditized products. According to data from IMS Health, a differentiated product could potentially capture around 27 percent of the market at its peak year sales point whereas a commodity product’s market share at its peak year sales point may not be half as large (around 12 percent of market share).
If the new antibacterial drug is expected to be significantly better (in terms of safety and/or efficacy) than existing drugs in the same market, we assume a peak year sales market share of 27 percent based on the “differentiated” market share curve provided in IMS Health (2010). If, on the other hand, the new antibacterial drug is not substantially superior to existing therapies, we assume a peak year sales market share of 12 percent based on the “commodity” market share curve provided in the same source.