Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 3.2.12 Product Launch Success Probability


According to Griffin (1997), only about 60 percent of new product launches end up being commercially successful.  Using this as our basis, we assume that there is a 60 percent chance that the novel antibacterial drug market share would be 27.1 percent and a 40 percent (= 1 – 0.60) chance that it would be 12.3 percent.  For sensitivity analysis, we use a triangular distribution for the product success probability with a lower bound of 40 percent and an upper bound of 80 percent.

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