Analytical Framework for Examining the Value of Antibacterial Products. 3.2.12 Product Launch Success Probability

04/15/2014

According to Griffin (1997), only about 60 percent of new product launches end up being commercially successful.  Using this as our basis, we assume that there is a 60 percent chance that the novel antibacterial drug market share would be 27.1 percent and a 40 percent (= 1 – 0.60) chance that it would be 12.3 percent.  For sensitivity analysis, we use a triangular distribution for the product success probability with a lower bound of 40 percent and an upper bound of 80 percent.

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