Analysis of Children's Health Insurance Patterns: Findings from the SIPP. 3. Cumulative Monthly Exits

05/12/1999

The monthly transitions reported in Table 8 show that about 8 percent of the children who were uninsured at any point in time in FY93 or FY94 became insured in the next month while Table 7 indicates that 36 percent of the children who were uninsured in October 1992 were insured 11 months later and 46 percent were insured 23 months later. Similarly, the monthly transitions reported in Table 10 show that, on average, about 4 percent of the children enrolled in Medicaid at any time in the two-year period left the program the next month while Table 7 shows that about 20 percent exited over the course of 11 months and 26 percent over 23 months. In each case the change over 11 or 23 months is considerably less than we would see if each cohort of children who were uninsured or enrolled in Medicaid in a given month experienced the same exit rates month after month.9 Here we examine the cumulative effect of monthly transitions on children who started out in a particular state of health insurance coverage in October 1992. For each of three initial statuses-- uninsurance, Medicaid-eligible uninsurance, and Medicaid enrollment--we present estimates of the distribution of children by coverage status in each of the next 23 months. Over time, then, we see what fraction of the original population of, say, uninsured children is still uninsured in each of the next 23 months and what fraction has moved to either Medicaid, employer-sponsored insurance, or other insurance.

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